Ranges next 24 Hours

AUD/USD = 0.7968 to 0.7898

XAU/USD = 1311.72 to 1415.92

USD/JPY = 109.59 to 111.18

USD/CNH = 6.5649 to 6.6252

USD/SGD = 1.3504 to 1.3624

USD/ZAR = 12.9443 to 13.0665

USD/CHF = 0.9572 to 0.9657

USD/SEK = 7.9229 to 7.9964

USD/CAD = 1.2463 to 1.2574

EUR/USD = 1.1837 to 1.1943

GBP/USD = 1.2843 to 1.2958

USD/NOK = 7.8076 to 7.8794

Brian Twomey

Range breaks were seen today derived from off kilter GDP from USD.

USD/JPY — Yesterday 108.61 to 110.25, actual 109.57 to 110.42, off 17 pips. Tomorrow 109.66 to 111.11.

USD/CHF — Yesterday 0.9441 to 0.9531, actual 0.9540 to 0.9644, Tomorrow 0.9538 to 0.9617

GBP/USD — Yesterday 1.2874 to 1.2998, actual 1.2879 to 1.2937, Tomorrow 1.2893 to 1.2998

NZD/USD  — 0.7185 to 0.7243

AUD/USD –0.7879 to 0.7944

EUR/USD — Yesterday 1.1966 to 1.2078, actual 1.1983 to 1.1880. Tomorrow 1.1984 to 1.1886

USD/CAD — Yesterday 1.2467 to 1.2585, actual 1.2501 to 1.2637, off 52 pips. Morning trade was off by 48. Rare day to be this far off. We looked at target 1.2589 to 1.2614 with a range point at 1.2644. Yet the actual trade on the long paid 60 + pips then the short paid 35 pips so profit despite range break.

USD/SEK — 7.9282 to 7.9968

USD/NOK – 7.7526 to 7.8189

XAU/USD — 1302.62 to 1391.30

Brian Twomey

Yellen’s $60 billion promise to rescind the balance sheet monthly is derived from weekly M2 which sloshes around at roughly $52.9 billion per week. Currency in Circulation bounces at about $2 billion per week and $2 billion per week to Money Market Funds. Commercial banks are increasing at an average of $12 billion per week, $5 billion to deposits.

The new Yellen stimulus is raise a severely overbought Fed Funds rate to flood the system with cash. The M2 rising Weekly average at current $13,628.7 is up from $13,608.3 in July and $13,526.8 in May. The 4 Week average at current 13,619.6 is up from $13,569.9 in July and $13,492.6 in May. Loose money for a period in the future based on the last Fed statements means the balance sheet drops by $720 per year and after 5 years, the balance sheet remains at $2 trillion. A continuation of the 4 week average from a yearly perspective results in an increase in billions at $163, 435.2. Current averages presumes Fed Funds remain at current rates.

A raise in Fed Funds as stated would result in a new set of cash into the system. The fall in DXY and short term interest rates is explainable yet the rise in Gold is the stimulus result. If Yellen raises Fed Funds again then Gold will travel far higher.
Thr risk to the Gold price is Yellen is thankfully gone in February and the 8 year political term of Bernanke / Yellen’s damage to the economy may end. In hindsight, Praise praise to Yellen and Bernanke at confirmation hearings was the message to the future. Any policy the Democrats advocate means America must be against.

Trump and America’s economic opportunity will derive from 8 open positions total on the Fed Board. The true Trump test to answer is he a Teddy Roosevelt or Taft Republican will be known. Supply Sider appointments such as an Arthur Laffer or John Taylor would seal the conviction Trump is a Supply Sider and Taft Republican, last seen in Reagan. Supply Sider appointments would presume negative for Gold as Stimulus would be seriously addressed for the first time in 8 years.

What is Stimulus and its enormity is known by how the economic /political system operates. Under the 1st George Bush Administration from 1988 to 1992, the total economy was $1.2 trillion. That was the total budget. Of $1.2 trillion, $750 million was mandated by law. This money is untouchable and it goes to the programs intended as for example Agriculture, Social Security, Social Programs. The only way to use this money is to rescind the law. This can’t be done because the money is appropriated by Congress at the time of budget passage.

Of $1.2 trillion, $300 billion went to Defense by law. George Bush had $200 million leftover for Discretionary spending and this is pittlance as no damage can be done. But it also leaves the president as a figure head and powerless. This was the founders intention in Article 2, Section 1 to 4.

A budget increase comes by new and / or higher taxes. This is the Democrat dream. The previous way under Democrat presidents was slash the Defense budget and reroute the money to social programs. The current Defense budget is about $150 billion and not enough to safeguard America. Yet Democrats found their big winner by Democrat Congressional majorities to vote for $1 trillion in Stimulus then expanded to $4.4 trillion. Political power overrode economic prosperity.

Run stimulus against economic data and one would see the economic implications. Read Agency by Agency Regulations in the Federal Register and the evidence to shit down the private sector is crystal clear. 30,000 total regulations is 5,000 per year.
The Trump appointments to the Fed Board is most important to America’s future. Yet it decides also the question to Gold’s future.

Gold as XAU/USD in the next 24 hours will range from 1302.62 to 1403.50. The bottom is rising to support higher Gold.
Brian Twomey

USD/CAD  =  Yesterday 1.2436 to 1.2554,  Actual 1.2441 to 1.2550, Range held,

Tomorrow 1.2467 to 1.2585.

The Range in a financial instrument is far more important today than trade able levels and targets due to new structural changes. The Range became a built in component to the structure in order to contain prices. This created a wholesale adjustment to trading the market price. The adjustment factored on a far higher level however by prediction of the range in advance. The prediction factor means any financial instrument to stock indices, Yields, Commodities, Currencies. If a market price contains a number then its ranges are known long in advance. Ranges however mean different aspects to each financial instrument as some instruments contain wide ranges, other small ranges.

For examples to 40 currency pairs, commodities, yields and stock indices, hit my site as many range trades were posted in advance.
For the next 24 hours of trade, here’s a few currency pairs. The point to note again is no charts, no stops, no technical analysis as its not required. Its a far different view to prices as well as to the daily trade yet its imperative to know the exact range points. We don’t see or deal with losses or concepts as false breaks. Its not what we do here. Drill down focus is on the price and to capture every traded daily pip.

AUD/USD — 0.7918 to 0.7994. Today’s AUD held ranges.

XAU/USD Gold — 1300.41 to 1403.50. Today’s Gold held ranges.

EUR/USD — 1.2040 to 1.1927. Today’s EUR/USD range failed to hold but a range break is an opportune trade. EUR/USD broke 1.1866 Friday and again broke its range but shot 74 pips higher.

USD/JPY — 108.65 to 110.26. USD/JPY broke its range Friday by 20 pips yet held every other day.

USD/ZAR –12.9878 to 13.1169. ZAR held today.

GBP/USD — 1.2874 to 1.2998. GBP held today.

NZD/USD –0.7218 to 0.7287.

USD/CAD — 1.2436 to 1.2554.

USD/CHF — 0.9504 to 0.9595.

Silver today broke its ranges as well as WTI while Natural Gas and USD yields held its ranges.

Brian Twomey

What explains DXY’s drop and Queen Yellen’s regulatory comments is seen in the rise of the money supply. Despite 3 raises since December 2015, M1 and M2 continues to climb.

Current July M1 in billions Seasonally Adjusted is 3528.1 and 3531.4 Non Seasonally Adjusted. M2 current Seasonally Adjusted is 13,602.3 and Non Seasonally adjusted 13,548.70.

July 2016, M1 Seasonally Adjusted 3248.60 and Non Seasonally Adjusted 3249.4. Seasonally Adjusted M2 was 12,816.1 and Non Seasonally Adjusted 12,766.9.

December 2015, M1 Seasonally Adjusted was 3086.4 and 3140.5 Non Seasonally Adjusted. M2 Seasonally Adjusted 12,316.1 and Non Seasonally Adjusted 12,401.3.

July 2016 to July 2017 on an annual percent change as all data reports from the Fed, Seasonally Adjusted M1 grew + 8.7% and 5.6% for M2.

April 2017 to July 2017, M1 grew 11.4% and 4.9% for M2.

January to July 2017, M1 grew 7.9% and 5.1% for M2.

May to July 2017, M1 grew 9.3% and 4.7% for M2.

February to July 2017, M1 grew 9.3% and 5.1% for M2.

August 2016 to July 2017, M1 grew 8.0% and 5.6% for M2.

Currency in Circulation in billions March 2016 was 1359.5 and July 2017 is current 1486.40. Thrift institutions, mutual funds, credit and savings banks benefited as March 2016 balances went from in billions 239.50 to 271.40.

Commercial banks and Thrifts went from 517.20 to current 565.40.

Demand deposits from March 2016 to July 2017 went from 1281.80 to 1474.20.

Yellen’s Fed Funds raises became a stumulant to banks as they became flooded with cash. Since December 2015, M1 grew by 500 billion and 1286.2 billions for M2. Bank’s deposits grew by 192 billion in 4 months. Rather than sit idle, monies were put to work in money markets. A few points in interest rates is all it takes to profit and grow more money.

DXY’s drop, Gold’s rise and don’t change regulations to allow true price is now explainable. Don’t expect this to end well.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Break points 1.2919 Vs 1.2845. The point at 1.2919 coincides to the 81 and 337 day average.

GBP/JPY Above break points 140.91, 142.19, 143.90, 149.50 and 149.32. Below oversold begins at 140.35 and 140.09. 24 hour Range = 140.15 to 141.33 and 142.09.

GBP/CHF. Watch this Pair as a big, big move is ahead. GBP/CHF is highly oversold. Break points above 1.2474 and 1.2531. GBP/CHF is below every average dating to 1999. 24 Hour Range = 1.2255 to 1.2358.

GBP/CAD 24 Hour Range 1.5997 to 1.6131. Wide ranging currency pair.

GBP/NZD Break points 1.7742 Vs 1.7906. 24 Hour Range = 1.7701 to 1.7850.  GBP/NZD is the granddaddy of widest ranges.

GBP/AUD. Break point above 1.6499. 24 Hour Range = 1.6154 to 1.6267.

Brian Twomey

G10 most vital break points and 24 hour ranges are offered first then INR, NOK and SEK.

EUR/CHF = Break points below 1.1352, 1.1172, 1.1068, 1.1053 and 1.0874. Above breaks 1.1496 and 1.1584. Above 1.1584,must look to 1.1800’s. Intraday 5, 10 and 20 day = 1.1376, 1.1367 and 1.1375. 50 day = 1.1248. 24 hour range = 1.1338 to 1.1493.

EUR/CAD = Below 1.4874, 1.4755, 1.4657, 1.4594, 1.4568, 1.4542, 1.4509, 1.4495, 1.4429. Supports dating to 1999 are many and massive. Big break and short if seen is 1.4755. 24 hour range = 1.4807 to 1.5008.

EUR/NZD = massively overbought. Below 1.6328, 1.6060, 1.6328, 1.5936, 1.5911, 1.5890, 1.5803, 1.5741 then 1.5483. Above 1.6829 and 1.7546. 5 to 253 day averages support from 1.6278 to 1.5409. 24 Hour range = 1.6385, 1.6518 and 1.6608.

EUR/AUD = Best view is oversold. Below 1.4910, 1.4873, 1.4859, 1.4818, 1.4773, 1.4754. Above 1.5071, 1.5160, 1.5305, 1.5410, 1.5564, 1.5657, 1.5708, 1.5740. 24 Hour Range = 1.4953 to 1.5157.

EUR/GBP = Below 0.8954 and 0.8821. 24 Hour Range = 0.9210 to 0.9335.

EUR/INR = Below 75.17 and 74.15, 24 Hour Range = 75.97 to 77.0057

EUR/NOK = Above 9.3067 and 9.4096. 24 Hour Range = 9.2002 to 9.3253.

EUR/SEK = Above 9.5723. 24 Hour Range = 9.4511 to 9.5796.

Break points are averages dating from current to 1999. What will trade are 24 hour ranges.

Brian Twomey. Trade signals, consults, special pairs and any FX needs, feel free to contact anytime, brian@btwomey.com. I maintain 476 currency pairs, updated  daily and every pair is backed by Statistics upon Statistics.

Brian Twomey

My long time friend Peter at Thomson Reuters and 45 straight years of FX, CAD technical assessment. My view is 24 hour ranges from 1.2426 to 1.2536. Peter is right as usual in highly oversold USD/CAD on many moving averages.

 Trader

USD/CAD oversold, shorts should square, look to buy next dip

Aug 25 4:23pm By Peter Wadkins

Break below the Aug 2nd 1.2533 low is bearish and re-sets targets at 1.2452 Aug 1 low and the 1.2414/33 cycle lows. Heavily oversold hourly 21-HMA Bollis & Keltner channels 1.2461 & 1.2455 (-3.0 & -2.5); Oversold daily Bollis & Keltner channels 1.2430 & 1.2463 (21-DMA -2.0/ Keltner -1.5) today’s low 1.2466. Shorts should be looking to book profits  around here, we’ll consider buying near cycle lows. (PW)

24 hour ranges.

10 year yield = 2.1581 to 2.1773

30 year yield = 2.7352 to 2.7597

2 year yield = 1.3312 to 1.3431

5 year yield = 1.7512 to 1.7667

S&P = 2430.0387 to 2758.6206

Nasdaq = 5794.88 to 5832.5205

Brian Twomey

The premiere market mistake and object overall is to align apples to apples. I might show this point in EUR for example by alignment of all EUR currency pairs, yields, stock markets and Brent. Align apples to oranges will fail every time. The problem as I respectfully speak is it lies in understanding and knowledge of market structures. I read a few articles by a former and long time bank trader at fxstreet. I mention above points because even this guy has it awfully wrong. Traders are to busy looking for patterns, patterns and this isn’t the way for trading success. Another reminder to myself not to ever read these guys. I fall prey to belief someone will teach me something.

Ranges 24 hours. I’m respectfully exact

Silver = 16.9706 to 17.1342

Copper = 3.0237 to 3.0509

WTI = 47.6306 to 48.1637

Nat Gas = 2.8795 to 2.9053

DXY = 92.0076 to 93.3488.

Brian Twomey

Despite Friday’s fluke, reported currency pair ranges  held for the most part. AUD violated its top by 11 pips, NZD 15. JPY and CHF violated bottoms by about 20 pips. Gold, GBP/USD and USD/CAD held perfectly. Normally CAD is the first to violate then JPY and CHF follow and in the order of CAD, JPY then CHF. The big winner in ranges was Gold as Gold hit its 1284 ish bottom then skyrocketed to high 1290’s. Gold’s top range was 1355 and the must break point to challenge 1355 was high 1290’s.

EUR/USD 1.1777 to 1.1866 held until Yellen spoke at  10:00 am EST then 1.1866 violated to 1.1874. Draghi spoke at 3:00 pm after the bond market closed but before new USD data and EUR flew to 1.1940. Under market structure, Yellen spoke on ECB time and Draghi rambled on USD time. EUR’s price was perfect overall. In hindsight, USD was slated to lose. Yellen tried 12:30 press conferences but switched to normal 2:00 as 12;30 is far to market volatility disruptive. I cannot stress the imperative to watch Yellen and Draghi under voodoo economics, market manipulations and price controls. The have your cake and eat it too strategy will cause great harm later.

The real assistance to Yellen and Draghi was Durable Goods at minus 6.8 and far out of sync. That was the EUR driver.

Below is 19 currency pair ranges and XAU/USD Gold. US stock market ranges will post today as well as USD bond yields and commodities. EUR at the bottom and CAD. CNH as well. NOK is absent and will include in future days.

USD/JPY = 108.72 to 110.26

AUD/USD transposed for readers = 0.7901 to 0.7971. USD/AUD 1.2656 to 1.2544.

XAU/USD = 1284.99 to 1379.31

USD/MXN = 17.5258 to 17.6971

USD/SGD = 1.3489 to 1.3610

USD/ZAR = 12.95 to 13.0729

USD/THB = 33.0847 to 33.4588

USD/CHF = 0.9521 to 0.9605

USD/CZK = 21.8654 to 22.0842

USD/SEK = 7.9539 to 8.0277

USD/PLN = 3.5626 to 3.5947

GBP/USD = 1.2830 to 1.2944

USD/HUF = 255.3070 to 260.5863

NZD/USD = 0.7208 to  0.7273

USD/HKD = 7.7823 to 7.8535

EUR/USD = 1.1831 to 1.1937

USD/CAD = 1.2426 to 1.2536

USD/DKK = 6.2325 to 6.2893

USD/ILS = 3.5691 to 3.6011. Israel Shekel Terrific currency pair

USD/CNH = 6.6108 to 6.6716

USD/TRY = 3.4274 to 3.4582

Ranges are good for 24 hours then the information becomes invalid.

Brian Twomey

The USD 2 year yield traded in the past 16 days from 1.36 to 1.30. It closed yesterday at 1.32 and held a 1.32 to 1.33 range over the past 6 trading days. Europe’s Eonia was quoted at minus 0.358 over the past 6 trading days and ranged in the past 9 trading days from minus 0.358 to minus 0.355. Fed Funds closed at 1.16 for the entire month of August.

Why a new policy or even possibly a confirmation of continued policy won’t be seen at Jackson Hole is because its not the correct forum and the concept of collusion would reign front and center but done outright for public view. Read Herbert Hoover’s memoirs as suggested by Martin Armstrong and one would understand how and why central banks speak to each other, formulate policy and even collude in backrooms. Typical premiere deals in past decades since the 1920’s is to import and export Inflation. The understated in Inflation deals is a nation desired an interest rate change and the next central bank would possibly assist. Today is different as central bank policy, Inflation and Interest rates remains a constant throughout central banks the world over. The big collusion is already done. The Jackson Hole location should switch to Appalacia.

The latest concepts in FX and Gold trades is to know ranges ahead for the next 24 hours. This concept offers not only trades, break points and tradeable levels but to know the type of market that will trade. The 5 point Gold trade 2 days ago was seen in the previous 24 hours. Yesterday EUR/USD failed to break below 1.1762 and was seen in the previous 24 hours. Did USD/JPY break 110.19 yet, seen in the past 3 and 4 days in advance. Two days ago, 19 pairs were posted and only 1 pair failed, HUF, but only a light break. All posted on my site for interested. We remain ahead of the curve, growth and always innovative to adapt to changes in markets.

EUR/USD break points 1.1759 and 1.1831.

EUR/JPY massive wall at 129.65 and 129.67. Then comes 129.83.

GBP/USD 1.2781 and 1.2830.

USD/JPY brick wall today at 110.14 and 110.16.

USD/CAD’s brick wall is located today at 1.2574 and 1.2573.

XAU/USD Overall range 1280.58 to 1355.93. Break points above 1283.80, 1285.02 and 1289.01.

Brian Twomey

Range Predictions for Tomorrow’s trade

USD/JPY 108.78 to 110.19. Not much changed.

XAU/USD  Gold = 1281.05 to 1355.93

USD/GBP = 0.7774 to 0.7825 and 0.7833 Or 1.2863, 1.2779 and 1.2766

USD/NZD = 1.3801 to 1.3906 = 0.7245 to 0.7191

USD/AUD Ranges tomorrow 0.7882 to 0.7922 and 0.7942. USD/AUD = 1.2591 to 1.2687

USD/CAD = 1.2472 to 1.2567

USD/CHF = 0.9597 to 0.9670

USD/EUR = 0.8491 to 0.8427 = EUR/USD 1.1777 to 1.1866

Brian Twomey

81 Day = 1.3075

338 = 1.3155

596 = 1.3154

851 = 1.2655

USD/CAD Current

1105 = 1.2183

1279 = 5Y = 1.1848

1359 = 1.1781

1617 = 1.1491

1876 = 1.1302

2133 = 1.1232

2388 = 1.1253

2562 = 10y = 1.1168

2642 = 1.1153

2897 = 1.1173

3154 = 1.1229

3413 = 1.1341

3670 = 1.1488

3924 = 1.1741

4177 = 1.1979

4432 = 1.2159

4690 = 1.2298  Jan 1999

MID Point 1.3155 to 1.1153 = 1.2154

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY

81 Day = 111.43

338 = 109.13

596 = 113.50

851 = 112.81

1105 = 109.99

1279 = 5Y = 106.83

1359 = 105.20

1617 = 100.99

1876 = 98.75

2133 = 97.98

2388 = 98.23

2642 = 99.64

2897 = 101.18

3154 = 102.23

3413 = 102.62

3670 = 103.28

3924 = 104.43

4177 = 105.71

4432 = 106.07

4690 = 106.29 = Jan 1999

Mid Point 113.50 – 97.98 = 105.74

Brian Twomey

80 day = 126.82

337 = 120.32

595= 125.43

EUR/JPY 129.00’s

850 = 129.10

EUR/JPY  129.00’s

1104 = 130.56

1279 = 5Y = 128.17

1358 = 126.43

1616 = 123.46

1875 = 121.97

2132 = 123.03

2387 = 124.97

2562 = 10y = 127.41

2641 = 128.50

EUR/JPY 120.00’s

2896 = 130.52

3153 = 131.13

3412 = 131.50

3588 = 14Y = 131.47

3669 = 131.57

3923 = 130.95

4176 = 129.74

4431 = 128.09

4689 = 127.25

Brian Twomey

80 day = 1.1380

337 = 1.1031

595 = 1.1054

850 = 1.1471

EUR/USD Current Price

1104 = 1.1930

1358= 1.2104

1616 = 1.2353

1875  = 1.2485

2132 = 1.2687

2387 = 1.2829

2641 = 1.2976

2896 = 1.2972

3153 = 1.2902

3412 = 1.2884

3669 = 1.2811

3923 = 1.2636

4176 = 1.2405

4431 = 1.2211

4689 = 1.2102

Brian Twomey

9 Pairs posted yesterday and 8 pairs held its reported ranges, USD/HUF dropped but as mentioned not far from bottom range. I expanded pairs today to 16 and included Gold as XAU/USD.

XAU/USD 1281.55 to 1290.45 and 1391.30

USD/JPY 108.55 to 110.19. At 110.19 is light, look for a 110.26

USD/CAD 1.2497 to 1.2626 also look at 1.2647 on fluke. No CAD Data so its USD dependent.

USD/CHF 0.9616 to 0.9701

USD/EUR 0.8429, 0.8439 to 0.8504

USD/GBP 0.7781, 0.7791 to 0.7850

USD/AUD 1.2605 to 1.2693, 1.2717

USD/NZD 1.3805 to 1.3928

USD/SGD 1.3551 to 1.3672

USD/ZAR 13.14 to 13.26

USD/THB 33.2021 to 33.5711

USD/CZK 22.0306 to 22.2469

USD/SEK 8.0350 to 8.1094

USD/PLN 3.6121 to 3.6445

USD/MXN 17.6245 to 17.7469 and 17.7935

USD/ILS 3.5966 to 3.6287

Brian Twomey

European PMI’s were good, EUR/USD bounced to 1.1793. Why 1.1793 is because next break point is located today at 1.1798. EUR/USD bounce was actually light in terms of the actual release. Should’ve went higher. What if the same PMI was released and the next break point was 1.1806. EUR/USD would’ve traded higher to 1.1806. A poor PMI then what, 1.1711 is next bottom point. 2 minutes after PMI’s release then PMI becomes a distant memory for today’s trade as it leaves its connection to the price. Only aspect important to a price market is the price and break points and levels to achieve the goal.

What if the next price point and common everyday occurrence is higher is 9.77. Is 9.77 actually 10 or 9. No such concept as a mystery price. Talk about Right church, wrong pew.

On my blog is 9 USD pair ranges posted yesterday afternoon. The vital pairs USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD held ranges.

EUR/USD break points 1.1798 and 1.1711.

GBP/USD . 1.2778, 1.2804 and 1.2838.

AUD/USD broke reported 0.7898, watch below 0.7814.

USD/ JPY remains 110.26 break point to travel higher in days ahead. Below 108.83. Nothing new here as this range was reported yesterday afternoon.

EUR/JPY. 129.03 and 129.06 above and 127.93.

GBP/JPY 129.75 and 139.52 Vs 140.05

Brian Twomey