Month: October 2019

USD/CAD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY


Posted on by twbrian

Weekly Trades for BOJ and BOC, Entries and targets offered.

 

 

Notice USD/CAD and CAD/JPY contain 3 Trades per pair. Just click click all week and life will be just fine.

 

No stops, charts, graphs, no baloney just simple and perfect Trading.

 

USDCAD. Break Point 1.3203, below targets 1.2998 and 1.2930.

Strategy. Long 1.3032 and 1.2998 if seen to target 1.3185. Must cross 1.3066, 1.3134, 1.3140 and 1.3163.

Long above 1.3203 to target 1.3304. Must cross 1.3236 and 1.3270. Short 1.3304 to target 1.3270. Short Only Strategy.

 

CADJPY. Break Point 81.99, below targets 81.39 and 80.79.

Strategy. Short 83.17 and 83.46 if seen to target 82.28. Must cross 83.17 and 82.58. Short below 81.99 to target 80.79. Must cross 81.39. Long 80.79 to target 81.69. Must cross 81.39. Long only strategy.

 

EURJPY. Break Point 120.23, below targets 119.18.

 

Strategy. Short 120.74 and 120.99 if seen to target 120.35. Short below 120.23 to target 119.18. Must cross 120.10, 119.97 and 119.71. Long only strategy.

 

AUDJPY. Break Point 74.11, above targets 74.93.

 

Strategy. Long 73.69 and 73.48 if seen to target 74.05. Must cross 73.90.

Long above 74.11 to target 74.93. Must cross 74.31 and 74.52. Long only Strategy.

 

NZDJPY. Break Point 69.51, above targets 70.07 and 70.63.

 

Strategy. Long 68.36 and 68.07 if seen to target 69.36. Must cross 68.50, 68.64 and 68.92.

Long above 69.51 to target 70.07. Must cross 69.79. Long only strategy

 

GBPPY. Break Point 136.88, below targets 135.66.

 

Strategy. Short 139.91 and 140.52 if seen to target 137.17. Must cross 139.01, 138.70, 138.09 and 137.48. Long only strategy.

 

 

 

Brian Twomey  Contact for trades  brian@btwomey.com

 

 

Trade Methodologies

Posted on by twbrian

Welcome You Tube. I have a You Tube channel but my computer skills don’t currently allow the channel to operate, yet. This explains why I’m found only on twitter @authorbtwomey and Linked In. It also explains why I don’t use nor post charts and graph. All trades for many, many years are hand calculated as I threw away charts over 10 years ago. As I explain to new people, whatever you think you know or thought you knew about trading and forex, leave it at the door when entering my trades and methods. I’m 16 years trading and posted articles since 2007. Yet I don’t get around much but well known around the world.

I’m not a trade service but willing to assist traders to earn from trading.

 

Here basic Trade Methods

EURUSD The Trades defined

 

Daytrades Generally Targets 50 -90 Pips one direction, depends on Currency pair Ex GBPCAD 90ish, EURAUD 70ish

Always 2 way Trades available, may double the 50 and 90.

Weekly trade targets 150 -250 pips per Currency

Long term Trades  500 -1000. For example, I have a trader long GBP/USD at 1.1900’s and GBP now trades 1.2900’s. He held this trade for 6 months and never looked back. Most longer term trades are 4 and 700 pips and about a 1 month trade duration. 

Traders know and trust me for many years to be most accurate and earn profits and  its why I maintain multi year friendships and Trade relations.

 

Brian Twomey

 

Brian Twomey Weekly Trades Track Record

Posted on by twbrian

Here 5 Month per week Track record on 12 currency pairs, we are now trading 18 weekly currency pairs, All posted here on my blog

Given weekly are entries, targets and the main price points to achieve targets, We trade numbers so don’t use charts, graphs nor stops nor concerned with latest market talk blah blah. We are traders and we profit nicely but not addicted to daily market talk as it contains no bearing to a price target. We don’t even watch screens as trades are meant to enter and trade without constant check. Many trades are busy in life and don’t have time to constant monitor and that’s what my trades are designed for. This is 16 years n the making to achieve such perfection

 

 

 

Here’s the record on 12 weekly Currency Pairs for 5 months   /2019/07/12/fx-trade-results-feb-22-july-12/

 

Math behind weekly trades /2019/06/28/fxtrade-results-feb-22-june-28/

USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Weekly Trades

Posted on by twbrian
USD/ZAR and EUR/ZAR Weekly Trades
USDZAR 59 Year Average High 16.3527, traded Jan 2010, Closed 14.7905 Traded January 2010 16.3527 highs Vs Lows 15.5596
USDZAR 59 Year uptrend since January 1960 at start 0.7142
USDZAR close Price 14.7905
EURZAR Close Price 16.5225, 59 Year EURZAR High January 2016 was 17.7579 January 1960 was 0.6799
EURZAR and USDZAR Both in 59 year Competition for new Highs.
USDZAR is clearly the driver as EURZAR contains range problems
USDZAR Trades below its respective average at 14.8119 while EURZAR trades above its average at 16.4079
USD/ZAR Break Point 14.8119, below targets 14.7168 and 14.6216, Above targets 14.9070 and 15.002, longer term 13.5736
Strategy. Long 14.7405 and 14.7168 if seen to target 14.8001.
Long above 14.8119 to target 15.0022. Must cross 14.8237, 14.8356, 14.8594 and 14.9070,
EUR/ZAR Break Point 16.4079, below targets 16.3933, 16.3787, 16.3495 and 16.2910, above targets 16.4225, 16.4371, 16.4663 and 16.6248 Longest term target 15.5319 Strategy. Short 16.5394 and 16.5540 if seen to target 16.4663, 16.4371 then 16.4225.
  USD/ZAR Trade results 908 Pips   EUR/ZAR 1000 Pips
GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Weekly Trade Targets
I’m Brian Twomey, a 16 year Currency Trader.
My specialty for the past 10 years is achieve perfect Trade Targets and entries
Many Trades were demonstrated in this post over past months,
EURAUD for example +700 pips and target achieved as forecast. CHFJPY +500 perfect Target,. GBPJPY 1000 pips.
The list is long and verification is located on my blog.
I don’t use charts, graphs, stops nor am I concerned with daily Market banter as its effects on price is minimal to non existent.
Trades are 150 pips and above or I don’t bother. Not sure intro is needed as my writings date to 2007 and I’m well known throughout the world.
My Trades are unmatched by anybody. Here’s weekly GBPUSD and GBPJPY and 2 of 18 Currency Trades this week.
Why 18 Pairs is for Traders in my service.
GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2531, below targets 1.2463 and 1.2393.
Strategy. Short 1.2975 and 1.3009 if seen to target 1.2551. Must cross 1.2941, 1.2804, 1.2735 and 1.2667.
Short below 1.2431 to target 1.2463 and 1.2393. Long only strategy.
GBP/JPY. Break Point 135.49, below targets 134.42 and 133.34.
Strategy. Short 140.80 and 141.33 if seen to target 136.55. Must cross 139.74, 138.67, 138.14 and 137.61. Short below 135.49 to target 134.42 and 133.34.
             GBP/USD Runs so far 221 Pips while GBP/JPY runs 246 for a total 467 Pips
                    Brian Twomey

Martin Luther

Posted on by twbrian

 

“Avoid those who search for your soul in a moneybag. For when they find a penny in the purse, it is dearer to them than any soul whatsoever.” That’s from Martin Luther in 1517. He was in a mood about rich people trying to buy their way into heaven.

BOJ Yield Control and Formula

Posted on by twbrian

BOJ’s yield curve control could ignite bubbles

Bank bucks global trend by maintaining long-term rates at zero

YOICHI TAKITA, Nikkei senior staff writer

The Bank of Japan’s headquarters in Tokyo

TOKYO — While the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hikes put upward pressure on long-term interest rates around the world, Japan is going against the trend as the Bank of Japan tries to maintain long-term interest rates at nearly zero.

“I wish I could say that the BOJ adopted a new policy in September in anticipation of Donald Trump’s victory,” said a BOJ executive. He seemed pleased with the outcome of the bank’s yield curve control.

Takashi Kamiya, chief economist at T&D Asset Management, said theoretical 10-year Japanese government bond yields would have been around 0.5% if the BOJ had not adopted the yield curve control.

Theoretical yields are based on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and Japanese and U.S. policy rates. Japan’s theoretical long-term interest rates will rise along with the rise in U.S. long-term interest rates and the widening of the spread between long- and short-term rates.

Theoretical 10-year JGB yields are obtained by the following formula: (0.59 x 10-year U.S. Treasury yields) minus (0.11 x U.S. federal funds rate) plus (0.63 x Japan’s policy rate) minus 0.89.

This formula predicted how actual JGB yields would move, until the BOJ launched the yield curve control in September. The spread between theoretical and actual yields started to widen.

The graph shows that actual government bond yields have remained at around zero despite the fact that theoretical 10-year JGB yields are rising along with the uptick in U.S. Treasury yields.

Upward pressure

The BOJ’s monetary policy becomes more accommodative as the spread between theoretical and actual yields widens. The broader the gap between Japanese and U.S. long-term interest rates gets, the more likely the yen will weaken against the dollar. The BOJ’s monetary easing and the weaker yen have also buoyed Japanese stocks.

The situation in Japan is in stark contrast with China. Unlike in Japan, yields on Chinese government bonds are rising sharply along with those on U.S. Treasurys. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, does not use yield curve controls, but that is not the sole cause of the rise in the Chinese bond yields.

With private capital flowing out of China, Beijing has no choice but to meet rising demand for foreign currencies by digging into its foreign reserves. Since foreign reserves are held by the PBOC, this means the bank is tightening its monetary policy unintentionally.

If this continues, China will likely be hit by a decline in bond and stock prices as well as a weakening yuan, and this will affect the U.S. and Japan as well. U.S. authorities are likely to strengthen their expectations for Japanese investors’ buying, as China’s purchases of U.S. Treasurys can no longer be expected.

Translating it into monetary policy, the BOJ’s yield curve control is expected to be used as an anchor to stabilize U.S. Treasurys.

That reminds us of the so-called “anchor theory,” which emerged after the global stock market chaos, known as Black Monday, in 1987. The BOJ’s policy to keep interest rates low was later criticized for leading to the expansion of the subsequent bubble economy.

The BOJ’s monetary policy is likely to become even more accommodative, as it will take some more time for the bank to achieve its 2% inflation target. Stock and currency market participants may see signs of bubbles forming, but may not want to miss out on opportunities that present themselves.

SPX500 V VIX

Posted on by twbrian

Few words thrown together regards to VIX and SPX500

July top by calculations reported 2855 now 3 months later the new top is 2955.71. SPX averages gained 100 points in 3 months.

SPX for 3 months traveled along its top. and without a meaningful correction. Inside SPX current price is pure noise and it deserves desperately a correction. Current prices are mid range to overbought.

Trade strategy as in July is short only until a correction to at least 2600’s trade. Impossible to long a price at its top.

Vital averages 2818.74, 2775.14, 2634.81, 2625.83, 2495.06 and 2405.44.

Trade targets 2955.71, 2904.21, 2869.13, 2813.70, 2742.65, 2681.77, 2646.07

 

VIX

The VIX is a true safe haven asset exactly as  Gold and Silver. SPX is a risk asset while VIX safe haven status trades prices direct opposite to SPX. The ViX correlation currently runs positive 12% and +31% then correlations begin to run higher positives along higher averages. VIX contains an off sync alignment problem to SPX and its related to the SPX top. The higher SPX travels then the more dysfunctional becomes VIX.

Proper VIX status as a correct trade instrument is negative correlations to SPX. A higher VIX means lower SPX while lower VIX translates to higher SPX.

Current averages 17.16, 16.17, 15.65, 15.41, 14.91 and 14.60

Trade Targets 20.31, 19.59, 19.31, 19.59, 18.37, 18.25, 16.57. Trade targets reveal 17.16 holds.

Further VIX explanation to SPX misalignment is VIX best range is 4 points. The lost component to VIX relationship to SPX experienced compression to its averages and therefore lost ranges.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/SEK, EUR/NOK, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, USD/PLN, EUR/USD

Posted on by twbrian

A trade target in any financial instrument represents a point of alignment to a distribution, an average. A target is a settled price, a comfort point, a location that must achieve its destination by mathematical standards. A price lacks any other choice except to align and reach its price target.

W trade on the assumption the market is correct when in reality, the market is always wrong and this is what allows for off kilter prices to trade to a target. If the market was always correct, trading wouldn’t exist. The key is to know which market price, currency pair or what financial instrument offers the best trade profit.

A settled price or price inside a specific comfort zone lacks a meaningful trade because its price is correct. A correct market price must allow time to travel to its off sync destination before a trade is worthy. This takes time especially in today’s non volatile markets. The key is to find the most non correct price in order to trade an easy price target.

A trader married to a particular currency pair or financial instrument must view prices as off base to alignment then off base back to alignment. If an off sync price achieves alignment then naturally it must travel to off kilter again. This means for example , long and short is identified by long alignment and short off kilter.

USD/CAD and CAD/JPY offer such multiple trades this week

For the week, here’s a few trades

EUR/USD watch break 1.1054 then 1.1160, 1.1266 and a massive brick wall at 1.1307 and 1.1337.

EUR/SEK

For the week, big line break 10.6975, below targets 10.6670 and 10.6362. Long term target 10.1092

Strategy. Short 10.8083 and 10.8142, to target 10.7588. Must cross 10.8083, 10.8007, 10.7854. Short only strategy.
Short entry just before 10.8201.

EUR/NOK

Break Point 9.8854, below targets 9.8472 and 9.8090. Longer term target 9.4172.

Strategy. Short 9.9904 and 10.0000 to target 9.9618. Must cross 9.9809, 9.9713 and 9.9663. Short only strategy.

Shorts just before 10.0382

USDCAD. Break Point 1.3267, below targets 1.3186, 1.3161 and 1.3149

Strategy. Short 1.3321 and 1.3348 if seen to target 1.3270. Must cross 1.3294. Short below 1.3267 to target 1.3186. Must cross 1.3240 and 1.3213. Long 1.3186 to target 1.3253. Must cross 1.3213 and 1.3240. Short only strategy.

CADJPY. Break Point 81.29, above targets 81.76, 82.15 and 82.58.

Strategy. Long 80.41 and 80.20 if seen to target 81.20. Must cross 80.41, 80.85 and 81.02. Long above 81.29 to target 82.36. Must cross 81.72 and 82.15. Short 82.36 to target 81.50. Must cross 82.15 and 8172. Long only strategy.

USD/PLN

Break Point 3.9251, below targets 3.8943 and 3.8635. Longer term target 3.7381.

Strategy. Short 3.9559 and 3.9713 to target 3.9328. Must cross 3.9559, 3.9405. Short only strategy.

Shorts just before 3.9867. Watch break 3.9251 and take this short immediately.

Brian Twomey