Month: January 2020

Weekly Trade results reported from Feb to July, were honest to the exact pip. If anything this world knows about me over the past 10 years is honesty, assistance to any traders and perfect trading.  Never was a negative week seen and our weekly pip average maintain at about 1200 ish pips per week. In 5 months, we had 2 or 3 close calls to break even. Those trades were 12 currency pairs.

This week however trades were absolutely horrible. This is the first time we ever got hit with such a lousy week. AUD pairs began the week in deep deep oversold and traveled lower This killed the AUD trades. GBP cross pairs went past our entries and by 100’s of pips.

My new friend that started this week has every right to complain but he doesn’t know us well enough over time. As accounts over time skyrocket and that is the key to this game but this is where the crowds lose. Trader accounts over time  hit 0 while we rise. We’ve had missed entries yet we profited. I apologize to my friend as a trade week like this week just doesn’t exist. Most Importantly I honestly know what I’m doing on our trades and this week is not represented as our normal weeks.

Here’s trades and Results  Let;s see our week

EUR/JPY. Break Point 121.19, above targets 122.19 and 122.59.

Strategy. Long 120.12 and 119.94 to target 121.01. Must cross 120.48, 120.64, 120.81 and 120.98. Long above 121.19 to target 122.19. Must cross 121.36, 121.53, 121.70, 121.87, and 122.04. Long only strategy.

Actual 119.76 – 120.40. What can we say about this 119.94 to 120.40

EUR/NZD. Break Point 1.6926, above targets 1.7084.

Strategy. Long 1.6670 and 1.6647 to target 1.6885. Must cross 1.6687, 1.6726, 1.6745, 1.6767, 1.6806, 1.6845 and 1.6864. Long above 1.6926 to target 1.7084. Weekly strategy.

Actual. Closed and opened Sunday at 1.6681 target 1.6885. Target achieved, how about +185 pips.

2nd leg 1.6926, Target 1.7084. Actual 1.6926 to 1.7086. + 160 Pips. Total 345 pips.

AUD/JPY. Break Point 74.94, above targets 75.76.

Strategy. Long 74.39 and 74.11 to target 74.66. Must cross 74.39 and 74.52. Long above 74.94 to target 75.76. Must cross 75.21 and 75.48 . Short 75.76 to target 75.21. Must cross 75.48. Long only strategy.

Actual Long 74.00;s trade to 72.00’s. Minus 200 Pips

AUD/USD. Break Point 0.6867, above targets 0.6895.

Strategy. Long 0.6825 and 0.6811 to target 0.6864. Must cross 0.6853. Long above 0.6867 to target 0.6895. Must cross 0.6881. Long only strategy.

Long 0.6800 traded to 6600, Minus 200

EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.6170, above targets 1.6218.

Strategy. Long 1.6122 and 1.6110 to target 1.6162. Must cross 1.6146 and 1.6158. Long above 1.6170 to target 1.6218. Must cross 1.6182, 1.6194 and 1.6206. Short only strategy.

Actual. Closed and opened Sunday at 1.6147. Target 1.6162 achieved.

2nd leg 1.6170, Target 1.6218, Target achieved. 2 trade total +63 pip. EUR/AUD Highs 1.6500. Free trade short.

AUD/CHF. Break Point 0.6708, above targets 0.6784.

Strategy. Long 0.6619 and 0.6607 to target 0.6697. Must cross 0.6632, 0.6644, 0.6657, 0.6670 and 0.6682. Long above 0.6708 to target 0.6784. Must cross 0.6720, 0.6732, 0.6744, 0.6756 and 0.6767. Long only strategy.

Actual. 0.6600’s to 0.6400’s, Minus 200

NZD/JPY. Break Point 71.62. Below targets 71.08.

Strategy. Short 72.66 and 72.92 to target 71.87. Must cross 72.66, 72.39 and 72.12. Short below 71.62 to target 71.08. Must cross 71.35. Long only strategy.

Actual. Closed and opened Sunday at 72.14. Target achieved at 71.87

2nd Leg Short 71.62 to target 71.08. +54 pips. But Lows 70.34.

NZD/USD. Break Point 0.6562. Below targets 0.6501.

Strategy. Short 0.6622 and 0.6652 to target 0.6576. Must cross 0.6607 and 0.6592. Short below 0.6562 to target 0.6501. Must cross 0.6547, 0.6532 and 0.6517. Long only strategy.

Actual Close and open Sunday 0.6603. Target achieved at 0.6576.

2nd Leg Short 0.6562 to target 0.6501. + 61 Pips. But Lows 0.6452.

USD/CAD. Break Point 1.3126, below targets 1.3045.

Strategy. Short 1.3180 and 1.3207 to target 1.3139. Must cross 1.3153. Short below 1.3126 to target 1.3045. Must cross 1.3099, 1.3072 and 1.3059. Long 1.3045 to target 1.3099. Must cross 1.3072. Short only strategy.

Actual. USD/CAD just hit 1.3244, now short.

CAD/JPY. Break Point 83.14, above targets 83.95.

Strategy. Long 82.80 and 82.70 to target 83.03. Must cross 82.80 and 82.90. Long above 83.14 to target 83.95. Mist cross 83.34, 83.54, and 83.74. Long only strategy.

Long 82.80 dropped to 82.12. Minus 68 pips.

NZD/CHF. Break Point 0.6409, below targets 0.6377.

Strategy. Short 0.6430 and 0.6440 to target 0.6419. Must cross 0.6430. Short below 0.6409 to target 0.6377. Must cross 0.6399 and 0.6388. Long only strategy.

Actual 0.6430, Target 0.6419, achieved. +11.

2nd Leg, short 0.6409, target 0.6377. Achieved +32 Pips

EUR/USD. Break Point 1.1105, above targets 1.1135.

Strategy. Long 1.1015 and 1.1030 to target 1.1099. Must cross 1.1030, 1.1045, 1.1075 and 1.1090. Long above 1.1105 to target 1.1135. Must cross 1.1120. Long only strategy.

Actual 1.0992, Highs 1.1038.

GBP

Favored trades this week: GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF.

GBP/JPY. Break Point 141.26, below targets 139.85 and 138.45.

Strategy. Short 143.36 and 143.71 to target 141.43. Must cross 143.35, 142.99, 142.73, 142.37, 142.17 and 141.81. Short below 141.26 to target 139.85. Must cross 140.90, 140.54 and 140.18. Long only strategy.

Actual. 143.36 just traded.

2nd leg Short 141.26. GBP/JPY jumped to 143.35 from exactly 141.26.

GBP/CAD. Break Point. 1.6988, below targets 1.6896 and 1.5803.

Strategy. Short 1.7217 and 1.7263 to target 1.7034. Must cross 1.7217, 1.7194, 1.7171, 1.7148, 1.7125, 1.7102,1.7079 and 1.7056. Short below 1.6988 to target 1.6896. Must cross 1.6965, 1.6942 and 1.6919. Weekly strategy.

Actual. 1.7270 – 1.7101 +169 pips. Then bounced to 1.7370’s.

2nd Leg short anywhere to target 1.7171.

GBP/NZD. Break Point 1.9723, below targets 1.9645 and 1.9565.

Strategy. Short 1.9801 and 1.9840 to target 1.9743. Must cross 1.9782 and 1.9763. Short below 1.9723 to target 1.9645. Must cross 1.9704, 1.9685 and 1.9667. Weekly strategy.

Short 1.9801, traded to 2.0300. Minus 500 points.

Bonus shorts

GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2942, below targets 1.2849 and 1.2756.

Strategy. Short 1.3128 and 1.3151 to target 1.2988. Must cross 1.3105, 1.3082, 13059, 1.3036, 1.3013, 1.2992. Short below 1.2942 to target 1.2849. Must cross 1.2919, 1.2896 ad 1.2873. Long only strategy.

Actual. 1.3138 just traded

GBP/AUD. Break Point 1.8845, below targets 1.8721 and 1.8597.

Strategy. Short 1.9186 and 1.9217 to target 1.8907. Must cross 1.9155, 1.9124, 1.9093, 1.9062, 1.9031, 1.9001, 1.8970 and 1.8939. Short below 1.8845 to target 1.8721. Must cross 1.8814, 1.8783 and 1.8752. Weekly strategy.

Actual. 1.9200’s traded to 1.9600.

GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.2641, below targets 1.2584 and 1.2526.

Strategy. Short 1.2754 and 1.2782 to target 1.2658. Must cross 1.2726, 1.2698 and 1.2670. Short below 1.2641 to target 1.2584. Must cross 1.2613, Long only strategy.

Actual 1.2754. just traded

Brian Twomey

Established in previously written AUD and Neutralty was 2 vital points to AUD/USD and cross pairs: AUD/USD is a neutral currency and consistent to USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD. Speculation to USD/CHF and NZD/USD also follows neutrality to its cross pairs as currency prices serves as an interlocking and deeply related system.

Secondly, to repeat, AUDGBP at GBP/AUD reciprocal 0.5000’s is not only the bottom currency but it lacks any fit to the AUD complex and fails to serve as a true AUD bottom.

AUDGBP belongs exclusively in the GBP universe as GBP/AUD exchange rate 1.8800’s to allow trading in wide ranges between GBPCAD and GBPNZD.

AUD’s bottom is not only AUD/EUR but AUD/EUR serves perfectly to AUD/USD and AUD/EUR’s reciprocal as EUR/AUD. For EUR/AUD, AUD/USD and AUD/EUR then establishes itself as a triangulation and 3 trade combination.

AUD/EUR Vs AUD/GBP

AUD/EUR as bottom currency serves the purpose to normalized market trading. AUD/GBP against a 1000 point exchange rate differential to AUD/EUR becomes the bottom currency in any market crash scenario either derived from the entire currency market or from Australia’s financial system. AUD/GBP then serves as the absolute bottom to rescue AUD/USD prices and its cross pairs. Why the safety measure to a rescue is to prevent a currency price to achieve 0 as this means a nation is completely bankrupt.

AUD/CAD Vs AUD/NZD Top

AUD’s cross pair top is AUD/CAD. Why not AUD/NZD as the top currency is because the 1.0000’s exchange rate and 0.9600’s reciprocal lacks a fit to AUD and its cross pairs. In many instances throughout a trading year, AUD/NZD’s reciprocal factors to AUD/CAD but not at this time which means the relationship is off kilter.

Secondly, AUD/NZD serves AUD’s purpose as a forecast currency. The number 1 and 2 currencies forecasted from AUD/NZD are AUD/CAD and GBP/CAD. Speculation exist NZD/CAD also forecasts.

From a total of about 60 combinations tested, AUD/CAD forecasted 18 times Vs 15 for GBP/CAD. Most instances both currencies factored together in the same test.

Further, EUR/CAD and USD/CAD each forecasted 2 times. Why EUR/CAD failed to forecast is because EUR/CAD is automatically built into AUD/USD and AUD/CHF’s reciprocal price. If AUD/USD is neutral inside AUD cross pairs then naturally, EUR/CAD must also serve neutrality as USD/AUD.

Similarly, USD/AUD and AUD/NZD are naturally built into USD/CAD’s price. The test confirmed what was already known and how to arrange a USD/CAD forecast.

The relationship AUD shares to CAD is strong, deep and vital to trades, forecasts and overall currency market prices.
AUD/NZD Vs AUD/EUR

The clear driver to overall AUD prices is AUD/EUR, EUR/AUD as reciprocal and for many reasons. AUD/USD, AUD/CHF and AUD/JPY align more closely to AUD/EUR than AUD/CAD or AUD/NZD. The evidence is seen because from a 0 point exchange rate perspective as shown by currency brokers, the vast majority of exchange rate averages factors from low 0.7000’s to higher 0.7800’s. AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD operate on higher averages from 0.7000’s.

What 0.7000’s signify is the AUD relationship to USDCAD as reciprocal and built into the interlocking system by osmosis. A USD/CAD forecast may easily derive from AUD. Further, 0.7000’s represent tops, bottoms and targets for middle AUD pairs.
AUD/EUR as bottom is located inside the EUR/AUD price and EUR/AUD as wide range currency far outpaces AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD combined.

AUD = AUD and Same Principle as GBP =GBP

Each AUD pair shares its own space either as a reciprocal exchange rate or straight AUD and exactly similar to GBP, AUD exchange rates never violate the next exchange rate space. This means AUD drivers may derive from AUD/EUR as much as AUD/NZD or any pair in between.

AUD ranges from 0 point exchange rates operates on a step system from AUD/EUR at the lowest range to AUD/NZD at widest range. Reciprocals however are quite different and contain far higher ranges than straight AUD pairs. AUD is a self contained financial instrument and trades on purpose within its own universe.

AUD Forecasts

Exactly similar to GBP, exact entries and targets involves minor steps. To miss this stage of execution fails to forecast AUD or any currency pair associated to AUD correctly. The exact same stops are found in GBP and a requirement to forecast GBP pairs.

Forecasts

All AUD and AUD/NZD
= AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF
Minus AUD/NZD and AUD/GBP =AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD
AUD/NZD Re arranged = AUD/GBP and AUD/CAD.
AUD/NZD re arranged, minus AUD/GBP = AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD

So not to totally lose the crowd, about 60 more of the above combinations were ran as reciprocals and straight exchange rates to reveal exchange rates predict exchange rates.

If a particular currency pair is the trade focus then what must be known is from which pairs to forecast. A perfect trade forecast takes about 2 minutes, literally 2 minutes and literally perfect.

The term trade refers to weeklies and bi weekly in certain circumstances. Forecasts are perfect and beats math, trade tools and whatever else traders use to trade. Possibly I will write the 60 + forecasts on my site.

Brian Twomey

To highlight last week’s weekly trades for EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY, here’s trades as written and results.

EUR/JPY

Short 122.41 and 122.61 to target 121.42. Must cross 122.21, 122.02 and 121.82.

Short below 121.24 to target 120.03. Must cross 121.04, 120.84, 120.64, 120.43 and 120.23.

Long 120.03 to target 121.04. Must cross 120.22, 120.43, 120.62 and 120.81.

Results

Dead stop 122.35 and traded to 121.42 for +93 Pips.
Short below 121.42 to target 120.03. Lows 120.40. Trade ran + 102 Pips
Total EUR/JPY 195 Pips.

NZD/JPY

Short 72.98 and 73.12 to target 71.69. Must cross 72.70, 72.41, 72.12 and 71.83.
Short below 71.59 to target 70.16. Must cross 71.30, 71.01, 70.72 and 70.43.
Long 70.16 to target 71.30. Must cross 70.44, 70.72 and 71.01

Results

Short 72.98 achieved perfectly. Lows 71.90. Trade ran +108 Pips. However Target achieved today at 71.69.

GBP/JPY

Short 143.56 and 143.89 to target 141.21.
Must cross 143.56, 143.22, 142.88, 142.54, 142.20, 141.86 and 141.52.
Short below 140.89 to target 139.54.

Results

Entry 143.89 traded to 144.59 or 70 pip missed entry.
As stated many times especially for GBP and any missed entry, add 1 lot.

Trade now becomes short 144.59 and 143.89 to target 141.21.

Lows 142.72. Today lows 142.07.

Trade ran +187 pips from 144.59 and +117 pips from 143.89 for a total +304 pips.

Total pips for 5 trades and 3 currency pairs +607 Pips.

Weekly Trade Explanation

Our weekly trade rules are to exit weekly trades on or by Friday so to allow for the next set of weekly trades against new entries.

Targets for the most part remain or may not remain valid as target may have to adjust by a few pips. No sense to remain in a trade with a big profit even though target failed to achieve.

With a new entry for the new week, many more profit pips becomes available and adjust target. If a target achieved then we exit.

Certain weeks, we run multiple longs and shorts. Depends on the set ups and how many profit pips are available.

As posted many times, we trade 18 currency pairs every week and we trade by exchange rate numbers. This eliminates all the dinosaur methods used by most traders such as charts, stops and 100% tools and indicators.

I understand thoroughly the price context for every traded pip and our trades, profits and methods are perfect.

Brian Twomey

This week’s trade theme is CAD as the second position in a currency pair. The purpose for this week’s trade concept completes ongoing research to AUD/USD and cross pairs against the predominant principle exchange rates predict exchange rate entries and targets perfectly.

Perfect to near perfect entries and targets by exchange rate forecasts eliminates 100% of trade indicators, charts, stops and all Math used as predictions. The caveat to math is only certain formulas work but calculations must align to exchange rates predict exchange rates. Market concepts such as overbought and oversold eliminates as a signal.

AUD represents the next currency in a series as work into currency pair combinations was completed in EUR, GBP and JPY. Next is NZD.

AUD/NZD as an exchange rate appears to fail inside the AUD cross pair lineup but AUD/NZD’s purpose to AUD and to NZD is its ability as a forecast currency not only to AUD pairs but to CAD pairs in the second position, particularly AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and GBP/CAD as the top 3 currencies.

Offered against AUD/NZD is to serve the second function as a signal currency to AUD/USD and cross pairs. Overall, AUD/NZD is truly a fascinating currency pair and vital to the 28 currency pair line up.

EUR/CAD barely serves a purpose to AUD and AUD/NZD but it was added to this week’s trade theme to allow 5 currency pairs to achieve perfect to near perfect entries and targets.

Trades offered are weekly. Must cross are vital levels to cross and allow traders to watch the trade to target.

GBP/CAD

Short 1.7217 and 1.7263 to target 1.7034. Must cross 1.7217, 1.7194, 1.7171, 1.7148, 1.7125, 1.7102,1.7079 and 1.7056.
Short below 1.6988 to target 1.6896. Must cross 1.6965, 1.6942 and 1.6919.

AUD/NZD

Long 1.0313 and 1.0298 to target 1.0412. Must cross 1.0319, 1.0340, 1.0361, 1.0382 and 1.0403.

NZD/CAD

Short 0.8685 and 0.8709 to target 0.8625. Must cross 0.8661, 0.8646 and 0.8637.
Short below 0.8613 to target 0.8571. Must cross 0.8589 and 0.8577.

AUD/CAD

Long 0.8961 and 0.8954 to target 0.9006. Must cross 0.8969, 0.8984 and 0.8999.
Long above 0.9014 to target 0.9044. Must cross 0.9029 and 0.9036.

EUR/CAD

Long 1.4479 and 1.4463 to target 1.4561. Must cross 1.4495, 1.4512, 1.4528 and 1.4544.
Long above 1.4577 to target 1.4642. Must cross 1.4593, 1.4609 and 1.4625.

Brian Twomey

Continuing with our research to exchange rates Predict exchange rates, viewed to AUD.

The currency AUDUSD is the neutral currency Pair in the AUD Lineup.

AUDGBP at reciprocal 0.5000’s is not only the bottom currency but it lacks any fit to the AUD complex and doesn’t serve as AUD Bottom.

AUDGBP belongs exclusively in the GBP universe as exchange rate 1.8800’s to allow trading in wide ranges between GBPCAD and GBPNZD.

GBPAUD great currency but strange as a 3 pip built in deviation exists from AUDGBP to GBPAUD.

AUDUSD as neutral factors to AUDGBP but subtract AUDGBP then AUDUSD neutrality holds.

The bottom pair and most vital to AUDUSD is AUDEUR or as seen by traders as  EURAUD

The top pair? Not sure yet cause it depends what role AUDNZD serves in the AUD Complex as AUDNZD may serve as an outlier

which means AUDCAD is the top Currency. Yet speculation exists to no such concept as an outlier currency as each currency serves its vital purpose in the 28 pair line up.

Brian Twomey

GBP/CHF

Long 1.2574 and 1.2544 to target 1.2618. Must cross 1.2559, 1.2574, 1.2589, and 1.2604.

Long above 1.2636 to target 1.2756. . Must cross 1.2651, 1.2664, 1.2679, 1.2694, 1.2709, 1.2724 and 1.2739.

AUD/CHF

Long 0.6644 and 0.6624 to target 0.6718. Must cross 0.6687 and 0.6707.

Long above 0.6729 to target 0.6789. Must cross 0.6749 and 0.6769.

NZD/CHF

Long 0.6381 and 0.6368 to target 0.6408. Must cross 0.6394.

Long above 0.6421 to target 0.6472. Must cross 0.6434, 0.6446 and 0.6459.

6 weekly trades now posted, how much longer to continue posting winning trades after winning trades is under question. The $300 per month fee on 18 weekly currency pairs is ridiculously low but its offered as a rock bottom price to allow traders to profit rather than lose money on crooked trade services and incompetent website traders.

Brian Twomey

Last week’s NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY trades achieved written entries on Monday and Tuesday and both traded lower for 65 and 75 pips profit or 140 pip total. EUR/JPY exceeded 122.12 entry by 74 pips then closed Friday at exactly 122.11.

From GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY lows at 142.67 and 72.35, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY decided to bounce from its overbought status to more overbought at 144.53 and 73.35. EUR/JPY achieved the Richter scale at 122.80’s. Non normality to a currency price is trade higher when overbought and lower on oversold. Normal and a vast majority to weekly price movements is entry to target.

The methodology on a missed entry by higher on overbought or lower on oversold is immediately add 1 lot to the trade. Next options are either trade to entry for break even or small profit or trade to target with an extra benefit of the additional lot and the market’s gift to added points. Understanding price context is the overall benefit.

EUR/JPY on a break higher of 123.80 might invalidate the short trade and NZD/JPY at 73.55.

As targets failed to achieve its destination last week, the same trades will again run this week.

EUR/JPY

Short 122.41 and 122.61 to target 121.42. Must cross 122.21, 122.02 and 121.82.
Short below 121.24 to target 120.03. Must cross 121.04, 120.84, 120.64, 120.43 and 120.23.
Long 120.03 to target 121.04. Must cross 120.22, 120.43, 120.62 and 120.81.

NZD/JPY

Short 72.98 and 73.12 to target 71.69. Must cross 72.70, 72.41, 72.12 and 71.83.
Short below 71.59 to target 70.16. Must cross 71.30, 71.01, 70.72 and 70.43.
Long 70.16 to target 71.30. Must cross 70.44, 70.72 and 71.01

GBP/JPY

.Short 143.56 and 143.89 to target 141.21. Must cross 143.56, 143.22, 142.88, 142.54, 142.20, 141.86 and 141.52.
Short below 140.89 to target 139.54.

Brian Twomey

Jan 13 -17

Each GBP pair lives and trades within its own separate universe yet all GBP pairs together are members of the same family. Wide range pairs GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD are counterbalanced by subordinate lower range pairs GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF and GBP/EUR. The terms lower vs higher ranges for GBP pairs is a mis applied concept particularly as it relates to short term trades.

GBP and Ranges

Higher and lower ranges assumes automatically wider vs lower or bigger Vs smaller movements. For GBP, not necessarily. Exchange rate numbers disparity to wide distances between each GBP pair were applied, speculatively, on purpose to allow each GBP pair its own separate trading range within its own universe. Exchange rates for GBP means 0 point reciprocals and the straight 1.0 numbers as seen and traded on broker platforms.

GBP: Separate but Equal

All GBP pairs to apply the Plessey Vs Ferguson decision are separate but equal. Separate but equal means GBP pairs lack ability to violate each other’s trading range although on rare occasions GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD may violate spaces but those are fleeting instances and never last as market traders correct for imbalances.

GBP = GBP

Understand GBP = GBP. All GBP pairs are members of the same family and not one GBP pair is contrary to the GBP universe such as EUR/GBP to EUR or AUD/NZD and sometimes AUD/CAD to AUD or CAD/CHF to USD/CAD. The anti aspect to GBP’s exchange rate line up allows GBP a free wheeling, high flying currency. It doesn’t often trade to its full potential but on paper, GBP encompasses the abilities.

GBP Arrangements

GBP is arranged as GBP/NZD at the top vs GBP/CHF at the bottom anchor or a 6900 pip disparity. Remainder GBP pairs are located between GBP/NZD and GBP/CHF. Why GBP/CHF serves as the true anchor currency pair is because GBP/EUR is just an average currency pair in the GBP universe and lacks importance to the overall GBP whole. GBP/CHF serves the anchor function because at current 1.2600’s vs GBP/EUR at 1.1750’s, GBP/CHF exchange rate numbers are more closely aligned to the GBP aggregate.

GBP Price Drivers

The answer to GBP price drivers is it depends. Each GBP pair contains an equal chance to activate the GBP complex. Yet each GBP pair contains the same ability to render all GBP as neutrality. GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD serves an equal function to drive remainder GBP pairs as much as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF to GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD. Overbought or oversold may apply to one or more GBP pairs. Possibly one or two GBP pairs drives the total. Why?.

GBP and GBP Pair Trading

GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD trade within 1500 and even 2000 pip ranges. Those ranges rarely break. AS GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD trade and move, ranges usually adjust rather than break. It takes an extraordinary move to break ranges such as a Brexit, 2009 EUR/CHF or 2008 crash scenario. Trading and movement in the big 3 is best described as wandering aimlessly subject to the impulses to other GBP pairs, oversold or overbought by themselves.

GBP Direction

Before GBP/USD, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY achieved long term targets, all were price drivers to the total. The lower 3 now trade approximately within the context to their ranges. Until a deviation in GBP prices materialize, GBP lacks an overall directional trade strategy. However, all GBP pairs trade at the bottoms of a 20 year range.

GBP Pair Relationships

GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD share a close relationship as the top 2 currencies while GBP/USD and GBP/CHF are deeply aligned. GBP/CAD and GBP/JPY at the center serves as neutral currencies although GBP/JPY chooses for the most part to align to GBP/USD. Why align to GBP/USD is explained by GBP/JPY’s hiighly special ability as a key forecast currency to JPY cross pairs. And because its traditional for JPY cross pairs to align to main USD V Non USD pairs. Then comes the inability for 1.41 GBP/JPY to never trade above GBP/CAD at 1.70’s or lower than GBP/USD at 1.3000’s. GBP exchange rate alignments are permanent features and never to change.

GBP/JPY V GBP/CAD Neutrality

GBP/JPY and GBP/CAD represent not only the demarcation line between the GBP bottom and top but as neutral currencies, GBP/CAD and GBP/JPY provides abilities for the triangulation trade to emerge. As exchange rate forecast exchange rate predictions were tested, GBP/CAD and GBP/JPY appeared in the neutral position more often than any GBP pair. A triangulation fairly defined is a neutral currency Vs 2 currencies allowed movements.

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR as least important currency pair means it also severely lacks forecast abilities to other GBP pairs. However, EUR/GBP as another highly special currency not only serves a vital function to forecast EUR pairs but EUR/GBP and GBP together predicts perfectly tops, bottoms, entries and targets for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD. EUR pairs then forecasts from EUR and from GBP.

GBP Predicts GBP

To forecast EUR pairs from EUR requires nuances and changes to reciprocals and straight 1.0 exchange rates. GBP lacks the EUR complications to forecast exchange rates predict exchange rates. But minor steps are involved and those revelations won’t publish here.

Exchange Rates Predict Exchange Rates

The concept exchange rates predict exchange rates is a self full filling method as present currency pairs, speculatively, are chosen for a reason. Possibly to measure and contain exchange rate numbers within a special distance and to force constraints to currency prices by limit to wide price trading. Not one currency price will fall outside the current alignment because all currency prices align to each other in an interlocking, highly self contained market. Explains why exchange rates predict exchange rates is valid until the end of time.

Only special Statistics forecast perfectly exchange rates predict exchange rates. Not sure how or why a trading system is necessary as a pen, paper and calculator are only requirements to either work Statistics or to use exchange rates predict exchange rates.

While focus in this set of articles addresses each individual set of exchange rates, many, many ways exists to perfectly forecast currency prices by using other currency pairs outside of the sets. GBP/USD and USD/CAD is just one such example.
GBP predicts GBP/AUD is most popular among the GBP line up while GBP fails to forecast GBP/JPY yet GBP/JPY forecasts GBP pairs.

The methods

All exchange rates

= GBP/CAD and GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD bottom, GBP/CHF target and reverse
Minus GBP/JPY = GBP/AUD, GBP/USD and GBP/NZD
Minus GBP/NZD = GBP/CHF
Minus GBP/AUD = GBP/CHF
Minus GBP/CAD = GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD and EUR/USD
Minus GBP/USD = GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD
Minus GBP/CHF = GBP/AUD

Reciprocals , add EUR/GBP

= GBP/NZD
Minus GBP/JPY = GBP/CHF, EUR/CAD
Minus GBP/NZD = GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD and EUR/USD
Minus GBP/AUD = GBP/NZD and EUR/USD
Minus GBP/USD = GBP/CHF, EUR/CAD and EUR/CHF
Minus GBP/CHF = GBP/CHF and EUR/CAD
Minus GBP/AUD = GBP/NZD and EUR/USD
Minus GBP/CAD = ?

Reciprocals, add GBP/EUR

= EUR/GBP and GBP/USD
Minus GBP/JPY = 0
Minus GBP/USD = EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF
Minus GBP/CHF = EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF
GBP/EUR is a failure

All Exchange Rates, add GBP/EUR

Total = GBP/EUR failure
Minus GBP/NZD = GBP/CAD and EUR/GBP
Minus GBP/AUD = EUR/GBP
Minus GBP/CAD = EUR/GBP
Minus GBP/JPY = Nothing
Minus GBP/USD = GBP/CHF
Minus GBP/CHF = GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF

Reciprocals, Eliminate EUR/GBP and GBP/EUR

Minus GBP/JPY = GBP/CAD, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD
Minus GBP/USD = GBP/USD, GBP/CAD and EUR/USD
Minus GBP/CHF = GBP/USD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CHF
Minus GBP/NZD = GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/USD
Minus GBP/AUD = GBP/CHF and EUR/USD
Minus GBP/CAD = GBP/CHF and EUR/USD

Brian Twomey

January 6 to 10

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