Month: April 2020

Weekly Trade Results: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, EUR/USD, USD/RON


Posted on by twbrian

Quite unusual to this week’s prices is continued rises and falls from the Sunday open. Normally seen is the dead open on Sunday and continuation into Monday. Then comes rises and falls from weekly neutral prices to trade to more neutral. And ths is exactly the description to this week;s prices, neutrality to neurality. Usually, its trade by deviation to alignment.

 

Driving prices this week is USD Vs Non USD and the cross pairs are complying to the underlying. USD Vs Non USD is explained by USD/CAD as USD and non USD as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

 

The USDCAD trade this week has yet to participate as we wait on entry higher for shorts or short at break 1.3835.
Last week’s USD/CAD trade as posted contained a target at 1.3811 and short at 1.4114 and 1.4152. USD/CAD bolted last week to 1.4200’s. Add 1 lot on missed entry and today;s lows achieved 1.3944 for a 300 pips trade. So far. Same story to CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF.

 

Trader options however is either hold trades to target im which case means a 2 week trade or exit with weekly profits to then embark on a fresh trade in the upcoming week.

The Trades

GBP/USD

Long 1.2329 and 1.2307 to target 12504
Lows 1.2359, target achieved 1.2504

Trade Ran +145 pips and how about on Missed entry. Credit for target.

Trade now waits on resolution at 1.2516 to target 1.2700’s or a reversal will trade and then we are long again at the lows. Remember the gray area to price paths and the untouchable prices not afforded an opportunity to trade such as 1.1505 – 1.26516.

GBPCHF

Long 1.1998 and 1.1971 to target 1.2137
Lows 1.2021, Target achieved 1.2137
Trade ran +116 pips and missed entry by 23 pips.

2nd Leg
Long above 1.2164 to target 1.2385
Highs 1.2205
trade runs +41 pips and total for 2 trades +157 pips.

EURUSD

Long 1.0799 and 1.0781 to target 1.0916
Lows 1.0811, Highs 1.0888
29 pips to target

Trade Runs +77 pips and missed entry by 12 pips.
Trade now waits om break 1.0923 for higher or a reversal seen and then we are long again.

USD/RON

Entry short at 4.4800’s and 4.4900 to target 4.4100’s. Weekly range 4.4678 to 4.4489. No entry yet.

Long way to go to current trade week.

 

Brian Twomey

FX training Resources

Posted on by twbrian

I’ve been recommending this Shearson Lehman FX training manual for years and now  I see its all over the internet

 

Here’s Shearson Lehman FX Training Guide, its your bible to anything FX. https://web.stanford.edu/~jbulow/Lehmandocs/docs/BARCLAYS/LBEX-LL%203356480-3356609.pdf

 

Steve Anthony “Foreign Exchange on Practice” used as Citi bank FX training manual for many years, a $300 book but PDF available for free

 

The ACI FX dealing Certificate. This is the primo, especially if interested in FX Jobs but it teaches everything to FX and trading.

The ACI Professional Certificate is far more valuable. My friend Peter Wadkins has this one. To maintain certification, must undergo yearly and extensive background checks. Don’t apply unless life and family are squeeky clean.

 

https://acifma.com/aci-dealing-certificate

 

I found the Journal of Technical Analysis a really great resource especially pre 1997 when charts and pictures weren’t trade methods. The strategies and understanding from 1972 inception to 1997 was extremely useful.

Now must be a Member and pay fees to the Market Technicians Association to view the Journal. 48 years free, now a fee.

Journal of Technical Analysis Archives

 

The International Technical analysis Journal, Published annually since 2000. A far better and more professional organization than the MTA

 

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

Weekly Trades

Posted on by twbrian

Beginning next week, I must reduce the number of public trades. Its unfair to post the amount of trades as I’ve been offering.

Its no mystery to what I offer in weekly pips, account growth and consistent profits over years and years.

The price of a subscription is extremely cheap compared to overall pips earned.

Many tell me the subscription price is to low but its not the price of concern as I offer my services so traders aren’t bankrupt from the myriad of crooked trade services and crooked posters on websites.

All have seen the trades. Click on Sunday, exit by Friday and no worries to the week. Much more time is devoted weekly to live life and not worry about trades and profits.

 

Brian Twomey

 

Weekly Trade: USD/RON

Posted on by twbrian

As mentioned best pairs in the EM space is USD/PLN, USD/BRL, USD/HUF and USD/RON. Also as EUR/PLN, EUR/BRL, EUR/HUF and EUR/RON.

Personally, as USD best.

 

USD/RON

Short 4.4925 and 4.4954 to target 4.4186. Must cross 4.4570

Short below 4.4059 to target 4.3804. Must cross

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY

Posted on by twbrian
                                 EUR/AUD
 
 Long 1.6874 and 1.6851 to target 1.7040. Must cross 1.6921, 1.6968 and 1.7015.
Long above 1.7064 to target 1.7397. Must cross 1.7111, 1.7158, 1.7304 and 1.7351. 
                                        GBP/AUD
   Strategy. Long 1.9276 and 1.9258 to target 1.9496. Must cross 1.9312, 1.9348, 1.9384, 1.9420, 1.9456 and 1.9452.
Long above 1.9532 to target 1.9714. Must cross 1.9568, 1.9604, 1.9640, 1.9676 and 1.9712.
                             GBP/JPY
 
Long 132.57 and 132.25 to target 135.06. Must cross 132.88, 133.19, 133.50, 133.81, 134.12, 134.43 and  134.74.
Long above 135.38 to target 136.62. Must cross 135.69, 136.00 and 136.31.
                              EUR/JPY
 
 Long 115.89 and 115.58 to target 118.02. Must cross 116.21, 116.53, 116.88, 117.20, 117.52 and 117.84.
Long above 118.19 to target 120.43. Must cross 118.51, 118.83, 119.15, 119.47, 119.79 and  120.11
                 Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, EUR/USD, USDCAD

Posted on by twbrian

For weekly Public Trades

 

                              GBP/USD
 
 Long 1.2329 and 1.2307 to target 12504. Must cross 1.2350, 1.2371, 1.2392, 1.2413, 1.2334, 1.2355, 1.2376, 1.2406, 1.2427, 1.2448, 1.2469 and 1.2490.
Long above 1.2525 to target 1.2701. Must cross 1.2546, 1.2567, 1.2588, 1.2609, 1.2630, 1.2551, 1.2572 and 1.2593. 
                          GBP/CHF
 
 Long 1.1998 and 1.1971 to target 1.2137. Must cross 1.2025, 12052, 1.2079, 1.2106 and 1.2133.
Long above 1.2164 to target 1.2385. Must cross 1.2191, 1.2218, 1.2245, 1.2272, 1.2299, 1.2326, 1.2353 and 1.2380
                                 EUR/USD
           Long 1.0799 and 1.0781 to target 1.0916. Must cross 1.0858, 1.0877 and 1.0896.
Long above 1.0935 to target 1.1089. Must cross 1.0954, 1.0973, 1.0992, 1.1011, 1.1030, 1.1049 and 1.1068.
Short 1.1089 to target 1.1012. Must cross 1.1070, 1.1051 and 1.1032
                                        USD/CAD
   Short 1.4153 and 1.4192 to target 1.3874. Must cross 1.4114, 1.4075, 1.4036, 1.3997 and 1.3958.
  Short below 1.3835 to target 1.3676. Must cross 1,3796, 1.3757, 1.3718 and 1.3679.
               Brian Twomey

Gold Chart

Posted on by twbrian

Gold 5 year average 1286. And 1 month average 1678.68, 2 month average 1595.38. Gold at 67 year highs, pretty much at all time highs.

Chart = Gold in grams. Much smarter to view and calculate Gold from Grams. Was always my way to any Gold forecasts over the years. All done by hand. Now I see conversion calculators. I wouldn’t trust any.

As stated in the gold post, Gold was overbought at low 1600.00’s, overbought actually began at 1500’s. At 1700;s the world says short.

DXY is severely overbought at 100’s. Matches the Gold forecast as DXY and GOLD are the exact same instruments, same movements

DXY and GOLD VS Oil and S&P’s.

2 risk assets below and 2 safe assets above. Shorts in Gold and DXY = Longs in OIL and S&P’s. And vice versa.

Convert Gold Grams to Gold Ounces or properly termed Troy Ounces then Multiply Grams by 31.103 = Gold Price.

Convert Gold Price to Gold Grams then Divide Gold Price by 31.103.

31.103 is written in stone as conversion factor, won’t ever change.

 

Entries, Targets and Weekly Pip Counts: An Explanation

Posted on by twbrian

Weekly trade results are documented here on site from February to July 2019. Results account for 10 and 12 currency pairs Around June and July 2019, I added 6 more currency pairs so totals then are much higher compared to today at 18 weekly trades.

 

Why 18 currency pairs is from trader requests. Then I began to truly analyze all 24 currency pairs for weekly trade results and relationship to long term targets and found certain currency pairs at specific times run extremely strong. EUR/CAD, EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP are 3 great examples.

 

EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD were traded heavily and always successfully until long term targets achieved respected destinations. Then both pairs traded in dead ranges and failed to offer a substantial weekly pip count to my satisfaction so I eliminated both pairs and replaced by 2 more stronger running pairs outside of their long term targets.

 

To my satisfaction means weekly trade criteria is 150 to + 200 pip targets. Any trade at or less than 100 ish pips classifies as a day trade and not a weekly.

 

Once a currency pair achieves its long term targets then the pair must drop from consideration as it won’t perform to 150 and 200 pip weekly specifications. A drop may mean as much as 1 year but it depends on the currency pair and its allowable movements to long term targets. EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD still hasn’t performed to weekly trade criteria.

 

EUR/GBP was never a consideration to weekly trades due to small movements and relationship to long term targets.
Further to why 18 is no trade criteria to USD/CHF, CAD/CHF, CHF/JPY, AUD/NZD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD. Although AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and CAD/CHF are vital to the AUD, NZD and CAD universe of cross pairs. All represent tops to AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.

 

CHF/JPY and USD/JPY are slow movers but also the same currency pair. They complement pairs to each other and should trade together at the same time to generate the weekly trade criteria. But this means factoring 2 additional trades to unknown results.

 

A tade is factored first then a determination is rendered to its trade ability.

 

Last to why 18 currency pairs is a multi year personal ambition to trade perfect entries to perfect targets for every pair. This feat I accomplished in many, many weeks.

 

As targets, entries and weekly pip counts were extremely high and terrific, I stopped reporting results and stopped looking as trades were perfect.

 

Here’s end June 2019 after 4 months of weekly trades.

 

Actual Profit Pips = 23,021

Actual Pip Profit Average 1292

We profit on Average 1292 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. Mathematically, SD on 17 weeks and 12 currency pairs = 650.40 and 1/2 of 1292 = 646. This means weekly pip totals every week for 4 months ran far higher than the deviations. Its extraordinary to performance.

 

Not revealed was factored a high and low to weekly pip totals. Weekly totals then informed weekly pip counts were extremely low. I failed to understand then what low meant. Upon further analysis, Low then meant currency prices were heading for much higher to expanded ranges. I now know what high and lows means and forecast 1 year ahead. My speculation to factor weekly totals now is currency prices are heading to small range conditions.

 

Further, Signal/ Noise Ratio Vs Variation equates to 1.98 Vs 0.50. The Signal is perfect and high Vs its 50 % Variation. We are dead on track to report profit on 50% of all traded pips.

 

Weekly Trade Analysis

 

Targets are never the issue to trades and as I reported with the 2012 trades, targets are written in mathematical stone.
Entries however is the real test to successful trading. Correct entries to targets never leaves pips on the table.
Given 10 traders on Sunday to the same currency, heard is this, 5 longs and 5 shorts. Well given the crop of today’s traders, this is exactly what is supposed to be heard.

 

Factually, longs, shorts and entries are determined by location to the weekly close price. Most close prices in any week are located in an equilibrium or neutral location. This means the traded price on Sunday is untouchable. Certain weeks and particular currency pairs are located in non neutral positions. Now we have a traded price ready to go.

 

Overall, the vast majority of currency prices sit in neutral positions all week, especially EUR and this is why its imperative to wait on the entry price. Every now and then, a particular currency pair’s price may not meet its entry price. The pair then doesn’t trade and excluded from weekly trade consideration.

 

Entries

 

Most entries in any given week are perfect to near perfect. 2 entries are always offered specifically to cover fully the neutral zone parameters.

 

Missed entriies may miss by as high as 150 pips but this is specific to the currency pair such as GBP and CAD or possibly JPY cross pairs. Never to AUD, NZD and most 0 point currency pairs. A 150 pip miss however is specific to a particular currency pair and not all in any given week.

 

Wide range pairs such as GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD may miss as high as 2 X the 150 to GBP or 300 pips.

 

A missed entry means the traded price went to the extreme. USD/CAD and GBP/USD last week for example.
Overall relationship works as this. If for example, GBP/USD trades to extremes then cross pairs trade to perfect entries.

 

GBP/USD Vs GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD. And vice versa. if GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD or GBP/AUD trades to extremes then GBP/USD entries are perfect.

 

As stated many times, weekly trades are the most extremely difficult to perfect Vs daily and long term targets. The amount of time I spend on weekly trades is extraordinary. But no different to 2012.

 

Overall, a missed entry traded to extremes is an opportunity for free money and a free trade. Its a literal market gift. The key and what is known is the location at all times to the price. This is known every price point and extreme on Sunday before 1 pip is traded.

 

Most important to a currency price path is not all exchange rate points are the same. Certain exchange rates are supports, or resistance, or vital MA break points or dead neutral points or range points. Vital exchange rate points must be known in advance to any trade, daily or weekly.

 

What may account for a missed entry is another currency pair off kilter to its price and possibly to its underlying currency pair such as GBP/USD Vs GBP/NZD. Understand this, a currency price is never correct. EUR/AUD for example at 1.7000’s should trade at 1.5900’s to be correct.

 

Targets

A weekly target price is the point at correct alignment. But only to the weekly alignment and not its longer term target. EUR/AUD maybe aligned at its weekly 1.6900’s but not to its correct alignment at 1.5900;s. GBP/USD may align at say 1.2300’s but not to its long term correct alignment at 1.3400;s.

I might follow up further to why a missed entry. Understand this, a 3 vs 3 math view. Forward prices and interest rates.
As usual the key to successful trading is understanding but far more than entry = target and profit.

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trade Update: Apr 19 -24

Posted on by twbrian

AUDJPY Weekly Target 69.06, trade today 69.01,

 

AUD/JPY Trade

Long 68.19 and 67.89 to target 69.06
Lows 67.29, highs 69.01
On Trade Instruction alone +89 Pips, Target achieved

 

AUD/CHF Trade

AUDCHF The Target 0.6191, Trade 0.6220

AUD/CHF
Long 0.6133 and 0.6105 to target 0.6191
Lows 0.6074, Highs 0.6220
Trade instruction +86 pips Target achieved

 

AUD/USD

Long 0.6334 and 0.6310 to target 0.6386
Lows 0.6253, highs 0.6506
Trade Instruction +76 Pips, Target achieved

 

EURNZD The Target 1.7917, Trade 1.7894

EUR/NZD

Short 1.8157 and 1.8205 to target 1.7917
Highs 1.8255 Lows 1.7894
Trade instruction +288 Pips Target achieved

 

CADCHF

Long 0.6898 and 0.6849 to target 0.7023.
Lows 0.6805, highs 0.6935
trade from Instruction runs +86 Pips Target not achieved yet

 

USDCAD

Short 1.4114 and 1.4152 to #target 1.3811
Highs 1.4262, Lows 1.4009
trade from instruction +143 Pips Target not achieved yet

 

GBP/NZD

Short 2.0834 and 2.0872 to target 2.0567
Highs 2.0834, Lows 2.0481
Trade Instruction +267 Pips Target achieved

 

GBP/CAD

Short 1.7538 and 1.7588 to target 1.7318
Highs 1.7626, Lows 1.7331 Almost at target
GBPUSD, GBPCHF and GBP/JPY at break even

 

GBP/AUD

Short 1.9707 and 1.9752 to target 1.9638
Highs 1.9730, Lows 1.9638.
Trade ran +92 Pips Target achieved

 

 

2nd Leg
Short 1.9616 to target 1.9433
Lows 1.9433
Trade ran +183 Pips
Total 2 trades +275 Pips Target achieved

 

EUR/AUD

Long 1.7052 and 1.7025 to target 1.7112
Lows 1.7018 Highs 1.7112
Trade Ran +94 Pips

 

2nd Leg
Long above 1.7139 to target 1.7362
Highs 1.7320
Trade +181 Pips
Total 2 trades +275 Pips

 

NZD/USD

Long 0.5980 and 0.5960 to target 0.6113
Lows 0.5933 Highs 0.6041
Trade Runs/ Ran +108 pips from 0.5933 and +81 pips from 0.5960. Target not achieved yet.

 

NZD/JPY

Long 64.47 and 64.22 to target 66.22.
Tuesday Lows 63.84 Highs 65.05
Trade Runs/ Ran +121 pips from 63.84 and +83 pips from 64.22. Target not yet achieved

 

NZD/CHF

Long 0.5815 and 0.5791 to target 0.5935.
Lows 0.5763, Highs 0.5886
Trade Runs/ Ran +124 pips from 0.5763 Target not achieved yet.

 

Waiting on EUR/USD, EUR/JPY

 

Brian Twomey  Contact brian@btwomey.com

Weekly Trade Update: Apr 19 -24, 2020

Posted on by twbrian

Based on trade instruction for entries and targets +1254 Pips. Much Higher to add 1 lot to missed entry. Our markets currently are absolutely treacherous and this is seen from price paths. Targets for 19 currency pairs failed to achieve. No such concept exists especially on 19 trades. Prices are just wandering around without a purpose. Just wandering. This is a dangerous trading environment. The strategy is not to trade to targets but to achieve profits near target and exit. And be grateful. Targets will again be seen very soon and perfect trading as usual but we must see CAD and GBP correct to account for remainder currency pairs.

Best trades this week, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, both offered +500 pips.

5 trades almost at break even CAD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF. When main pairs CAD and GBP are nit running correctly then all pairs are affected.

EUR/USD.
Long 1.0849 and 1.0819 to target 1.0954.
Tuesday lows 1.0816, Highs 1.0885
Trade Runs / Ran + 69 Pips Target achieved yet
Today 1.0809 lows and option for 2nd round longs

 

EUR/JPY
Long 116.64 and 116.30 to target 118.48
Lows Tuesday 116.21 highs 117.16
Trade Runs/ Ran 95 Pips Target not achieved
Lows today 116.44

 

NZD/JPY
Long 64.47 and 64.22 to target 66.22.
Tuesday Lows 63.84 Highs 64.65
Trade Runs/ Ran +81 pips from 63.84 and +43 pips from 64.22. Target not yet achieved
Lows today 64.03

 

NZD/USD
Long 0.5980 and 0.5960 to target 0.6113
Lows 0.5933 Highs 0.6003
Trade Runs/ Ran +70 pips from 0.5933 and +43 from 0.5960. Target not achieved yet.
Lows today 0.5939

 

CAD/JPY
Long 76.58 and 76.18 to target 78.36
Lows 75.32, Highs 76.40
Options add 1 lot for break even or add 1 lot and +108 pips Target not yet achieved
Lows today 75.59

 

USD/CAD
Short 1.4114 and 1.4152 to target 1.3811
Highs 1.4264, Lows 1.4114
Options to add lot then break even or +150 pips
Lows today 1.4114

 

CAD/CHF
Long 0.6898 and 0.6849 to target 0.7023.
Lows 0.6805, highs 0.6974
Add 1 lot +69 pips and +25 from 0.6859. Target not achieved yet.
Lows today 0.6850.

 

EUR/AUD
Long 1.7052 and 1.7025 to target 1.7112
Lows 1.7018 Highs 1.7112
Trade Ran +94 Pips

 

2nd Leg
Long above 1.7139 to target 1.7362
Highs 1.7320
Trade +181 Pips
Total 2 trades +275 Pips

 

NZD/CHF
Long 0.5815 and 0.5791 to target 0.5935.
Lows 0.5763, Highs 0.5814
Trade Runs/ Ran 51 pips from 0.5763 Target not achieved yet.

 

AUD/JPY
Long 68.19 and 67.89 to target 69.06
Lows 67.29, highs 68.47
Trade Runs/ Ran from 67.29 and add 1 lot +118 pips, from 67.89 +68.
Target not achieved yet.

 

AUD/CHF
Long 0.6133 and 0.6105 to target 0.6191
Lows 0.6074, Highs 0.6152
Trade Runs/ Ran +78 pips from 0.6074 and +47 pips from 0.6105
Target not achieved yet.

 

AUD/USD
Long 0.6334 and 0.6310 to target 0.6386
Lows 0.6253, highs 0.6352 Target not achieved
Trade Runs/ Ran +100 pips from 0.6253 and +43 pips from 0.6310.

 

EUR/NZD
Short 1.8157 and 1.8205 to target 1.7917
Highs 1.8255 Lows 1.8099 Target not achieved yet
Trade Runs / Ran +156 pips from 1.8255 and +106 from 1.8205

 

GBP/USD
Long 1.2444 and 1.2404 to target 1.2542.
Lows 1.2246, Highs 1.2385 Target not achieved yet
Add lot almost to break even or trade to target
Lows today 1.2301

 

GBP/JPY
Long 134.01 and 133.73 to target 135.63
Lows 131.90 Highs 133.28
Add lot to break even Or trade to target

 

GBP/AUD
Short 1.9707 and 1.9752 to target 1.9638
Highs 1.9730, Lows 1.9638.
Trade ran +92 Pips

 

2nd Leg
Short 1.9616 to target 1.9433
Lows 1.9433
Trade ran +183 Pips
Total 2 trades +275 Pips

 

GBP/CAD
Short 1.7538 and 1.7588 to target 1.7318
Highs 1.7626, Lows 1.7386 Almost at target
Trade Runs/ Ran 202 Pips from 1.7588 and +240 from 1.7626

 

GBP/CHF
Long 1.2041 and 1.2016 to target 1.2157.
Lows 1.1869 Highs 1.1993
Add 1 lot and trade to break even or to target

 

GBP/NZD
Short 2.0834 and 2.0872 to target 2.0567
Trade not triggered

 

Brian Twomey Contact brian@btwomey.com

Weekly Trades Apr 19 -24: Update

Posted on by twbrian

Total 19 Currency Pairs to include CAD/CHF, 5 currency pairs were off entries by 100 to 150 pips

 

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY and GBP/CHF. All GBP and CAD related.

Remainder 14 currency pairs were within 20 to 50 pips to entries. GBP/NZD short 1.0800’s never triggered as a trade this week. And this happens every so often to our pairs and its why many pairs are offered.

Quite ironic to GBP and CAD is both traded against each other to trade to lower and higher weekly extremes. The spread is now 2000 pips and this means far more great price moves ahead. A spread to this capacity is extraordinary. Normal is about 300 to 500 ish pips. See for example, 700 pips between EUR/NZD and GBP/CAD. Its wide at 700 but not terrible to consider currency pairs now contain 3 to 600 pip weekly ranges. This is quite high. Normal is about 1 to 200 and sometimes 300 pips at the top end. EUR/AUD last week for example contained a 700 pip range and GBP/AUD at about 500.

The word volatility is a misnomer and a throwaway market term without definition. Range is the most vital term and this means how low or high a price may move.

What explains slight entry misses to the 14 is all remainder currency pairs trade and fall between GBP/USD and USD/CAD extremes. GBP/CAD trade only missed by 37 pips to entry. Sometimes what is seen is the opposite scenario when GBP/USD and USD/CAD trade fairly normal and GBP/CAD entry may miss by 100 ish pips.

Weekly trades are by far the toughest trades to hit perfect entries and targets but I must say respectfully, I get it done correctly every week, under any and all market conditions. And under wide and short ranges. Easiest trades are daily and long term. See EUR/AUD for example and the 1.5900 target. We’ve seen lows at 1.7000’s so far.

Targets to weekly trades are 150 -200 and 400 pips depending on the currency pairs. A 20 and 30 pip miss on entry is actually nothing compared to the overall 200 and 500 pip weekly target. I work extraordinarily hard every weekend to ensure perfection.

I’m responsible to my traders to ensure perfect entries and targets and to ensure accounts grow exponentially. This I do and I will continue to do so.

Remainder 14 currency pairs are running and trading to targets as posted.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

18 Weekly Trades: Apr 19 -24, 2020

Posted on by twbrian

Last week’s trades contained a few missed entries and targets. This is far from the norm as my trades are over years perfect to near perfect. Weekly trade targets are the toughest to all trading but I get it right. Daily and long term trades are a breeze.

I;m posting weekly trades due to a group monitoring my entries, targets and profits. Funny too, nobody believes even when my associations date back many years. And posting for the record and not to be seen by the public.

 

Favored trades this week: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUR/AUD, NZD/CHF, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, AUD/USD, EUR/NZD 
 
Note: Many good trades this week. 
 
EUR/USD. Break Point 1.0968, above targets 1.1070..
 
Strategy. Long 1.0849 and 1.0819 to target 1.0954. Must cross 1.0878, 1.0908 and 1.0937. Long above 1.0968 to target 1.1070. Must cross 1.0997 and 1.1026, 1.1056 and 1.1065. Short 1.1070 to target 1.1026. Long only strategy. 
 
EUR/JPY. Break Point 118.66, above targets 120.16. 
 
Strategy. Long 116.64 and 116.30 to target 118.48. Must cross 117.14, 117.65, 117.90, 118.15 and 118.40. Long above 118.66 to target 120.16. Must cross 118.91, 119.16, 119.42, 119.66 and 119.91. Short 120.16 to target 119.66. Long only strategy. 
 
NZD/JPY. Break Point 66.49, above targets 67.48. 
 
Strategy. Long 64.47 and 64.22 to target 66.22. Must cross 64.72, 64.97, 65.22, 65.47, 65.72 and 65.97.. Long above 66.49 to target 67.48, Must cross , 66.72, 66.97 and 67.22. Long only strategy. 
 
NZD/USD. Break Point 0.6144, above targets 0.6226. 
 
Strategy. Long 0.5980 and 0.5960 to target 0.6113. Must cross 0.6000, 0.6017, 0.6034, 0.6054, 0.6074 and  0.6094. Long above 0.6144 to target 0.6226. Must cross 0.6164, 0.6184 and  0.6204. Long only strategy. 
 
CAD/JPY. Break Point 78.62, above targets 79.63.
 
Strategy. Long 76.58 and 76.18 to target 78.36. Must cross 76.83, 77.08, 77.33, 77.58, 77.83, 78.08 and 78.33. Long above 78.62 to target 79.63. Must cross 78.87, 79.12 and 79.37. Long only strategy.
 
USD/CAD. Break Point 1.3774, below targets 1.3623 and 1.3471. 
 
Strategy. Short 1.4114 and 1.4152 to target 1.3811. Must cross 1.4077, 1.4040, 1.4003, 1.3966, 1.3929, 1.3892 and 1.3855. Short 1.3774 to target 1.3623. Must cross 1.3737, 1.3701, 1.3663 and 1.3626. Short only strategy. 
 
EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.7139, above targets 1.7362.
 
Strategy. Long 1.7052 and 1.7025 to target 1.7112. Must cross 1.7080 and 1.7107. Long above 1.7139 to target 1.7362. Must cross 1.7194, 1.7209, 1.7264, 1.7319 and 1.7346. Short only strategy. 
 
NZD/CHF. Break Point 0.5959, above targets 0.6103.
 
Strategy. Long 0.5815 and 0.5791 to target 0.5935. Must cross 0.5840, 0.5864, 0.5888 and  0.5912. Long above 0.5959 to target 0.6103. Must cross 0.5983, 0.6007, 0.6031, 0.6055 and 0.6079. Long only strategy. 
 
AUD/JPY. Break Point 69.36, above targets 70.52.
 
Strategy. Long 68.19 and 67.89 to target 69.06. Must cross 68.48 and  68.77. Long above 69.36 to target 70.52. Must cross 69.65, 69.94 and 70.23 . Long only strategy. 
 
AUD/CHF. Break Point 0.6218, above targets 0.6331. 
 
Strategy. Long 0.6133 and 0.6105 to target 0.6191. Must cross 0.6161 and  0.6189. Long above 0.6218 to target 0.6331. Must cross 0.6246, 0.6274 and 0.6302. Long only strategy. 
 
AUD/USD. Break Point 0.6410, above targets 0.6508.
 
Strategy. Long 0.6334 and 0.6310 to target 0.6386. Must cross 0.6358 and  0.6382. Long above 0.6410 to target 0.6508. Must cross 0.6434, 0.6458, 0.6482 and 0.6506. Long only strategy. 
 
EUR/NZD Break Point 1.7869, below targets 1.7677 and 1.7484.
 
Strategy. Short 1.8157 and 1.8205 to target 1.7917. Must cross 1.8109, 1.8061 and 1.8013. Short 1.7869 to target 1.7677. Must cross 1.7821, 1.7773 and 1.7725. Weekly strategy. 
 
                GBP
 
Favored trades this week: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD.
 
GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2561, above targets 1.2718. 
 
Strategy. Long 1.2444 and 1.2404 to target 1.2542. Must cross 1.2463, 1.2482, 1.2501 and 1.2520. Long above 1.2561 to target 1.2718. Must cross 1.2580, 1.2599, 1.2618, 12637, 1.2656, 1,2675, 1.2694 and 1.2713. Long only strategy. 
 
GBP/JPY. Break Point 135.92, above targets 137.53. 
 
Strategy. Long 134.01 and 133.73 to target 135.63. Must cross 134.01, 134.27, 134.54, 134.81, 135.08 and 135.35. Long above 135.92 to target 137.53. Must cross 136.19, 136.46, 136.73, 137.01 and 137.27. Long only strategy. 
 
GBP/AUD. Break Point 1.9616, below targets 1.9433 and 1.8249. 
 
Strategy. Short 1.9707 and 1.9752 to target 1.9638. Must cross 1.9662 and 1.9640. Short below 1.9616 to target 1.9433. Must cross 1.9571, 1.9526, 1.9481 and 1.9436. Weekly strategy. 
 
GBP/CAD. Break Point 1.7292, below targets 1.7144 and 1.7093. 
 
Strategy. Short 1.7538 and 1.7588 to target 1.7318. Must cross 1.7489, 1.7440, 1.7391 and  1.7342. Short below 1.7292 to target 1.7144. Must cross 1.7243 and 1.7194. Weekly strategy. 
 
GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.2182, above targets 1.2283. 
 
Strategy. Long 1.2041 and 1.2016 to target 1.2157. Must cross 1.2066, 1.2091, 1.2116 and 1.2041. Long above 1.2182 to target 1.2283. Must cross 1.2207, 1.2232 and  1.2257. Long only strategy. 
 
GBP/NZD. Break Point 2.0453, below targets 2.0223 and 2.0146. 
 
Strategy. Short 2.0834 and 2.0872 to target 2.0567. Must cross 2.0758, 2.0682 and 2.0606. Short below 2.0453 to target 2.0223. Must cross 2.0377 and 2.0301 and 2.0263. Weekly strategy. 
   Brian Twomey

 

 

 

Weekly Trade: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF

Posted on by twbrian

 

Post Reference to balanced prices and neutrality, Apr 13 -18, well here it is

 

Weekly Triangulation Trades: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF

Posted on by twbrian

This week is a triangulation trade involving USD/CAD, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY. A triangulation trade is a 3 way trade and in the CAD example involves 2 longs and 1 short. Traditional triangulation trades were always focused and traded with USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY is a classic triangulation.

The 3rd leg to the trade depends on EUR/JPY’s correlation to either EUR/USD or USD/JPY. EUR/USD and USD/JPY represent longs and shorts while the long or short for EUR/JPY is determined by Correlation. Many triangulation trades exist in FX such as GBP/USD, GBP/CHF and USD/CHF or GBP/USD GBPCAD and USD/CAD.

Non normal pairs work as triangulations such as USD/JPY CAD/CHF and CHF/JPY. For CAD/CHF shorts are matched by longs in USD/JPY and CHF/JPY.

Middle pairs to triangulations are created for example by USD/JPY X EUR/USD = EUR/JPY. CHF/JPY is created by USD/JPY divide USD/CHF. GBP/USD X USD/CAD = GBP/CAD.

EUR/USD divide GBP/USD = EUR/GBP. AUD/USD divide NZD/USD creates AUD/NZD. Hit the caclulator at anytime during any trading day and a quick trade is created.

The derivation of the modern day triangulation trade was adopted with the European Union’s implementation of Rule 1103/97 on September 11, 1997, a formal legality existed for calculating conversions to euro. (2011

This rule also established convertibility to six, then three, decimal places, and the adoption of triangulation as the legal norm for transacting business in the Eurozone.

The basic formula always works like this: A/B x B/C = C/B. The cross rate should equal the ratio of the two corresponding pairs. In pre Euro days, many cross pairs weren’t readily available so the above formula was common knowledge to cross pair trading.

Today, traders pay a spread to enter a trade but in pre Maastricht Treaty days to adopt the Euro and before NFP 2009 rules to allow pay in spreads rather than by lots, a few example trades. From a 2011 article posted on the money show site.

For example, suppose we know the bid and offer of AUD/USD and NZD/USD and we want to profit from AUD/NZD.
AUD/NZD bid = AUD/USD bid divided by NZD/USD offer = a rate

AUD/NZD offer = AUD/USD offer divided by NZD/USD bid = a rate

The product of the rate through the bid/ask spread will determine whether a profit opportunity exists.

A three-pair triangulation opportunity such as GBP/CHF, EUR/GBP, and EUR/CHF, where GBP/CHF is quoted from EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF. Notice the base currencies within EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF; they equal the GBP/CHF, but we must make our euro conversions in order to achieve our objective.

GBP/CHF bid = EUR/CHF bid divided by EUR/GBP offer = a certain rate

GBP/CHF offer = EUR/CHF offer divided by EUR/GBP bid = a certain rate calculated in euro
Trades.

Cad triangulations are arranged as CAD/JPY, USD/CAD and CAD/CHF.

For CAD/CHF = USD/CAD top. CAD/CHF closed at 0.6905 and USD/CAD at 1.3996 and equals USD/CAD 1.4482.

And USD/CAD 1.3996 = CAD/CHF 0.7144. As CAD/CHF rises then USD/CAD trades lower. Higher USD/CAD then CAD/CHF trades lower.

CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY longs = USD/CAD shorts while USD/CAD longs translates as CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF shorts.

USD/CAD is clearly the driver to the 3 trade combo in the short term and for the weekly trade as ranges are far wider than CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.

While USD/CAD trades at near 67 year highs, CAD/CHF trades at 67 year lows. Any lower to CAD/CHF then a new average must be created to accommodate the lower price.

CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY are deeply oversold medium and long term while USD/CAD is deeply overbought.

CAD/JPY must trade to 80.07 , USD/CAD to 1.3578 and CAD/CHF to 0.7174.

For the week, currency prices are fairly balanced. EM currencies as well are fairly balanced.

USD/CAD

. Short 1.4114 and 1.4152 to target 1.3811. Must cross 1.4077, 1.4040, 1.4003, 1.3966, 1.3929, 1.3892 and 1.3855.

Short 1.3774 to target 1.3623. Must cross 1.3737, 1.3701, 1.3663 and 1.3626

CAD/JPY

76.58 and 76.18 to target 78.36. Must cross 76.83, 77.08, 77.33, 77.58, 77.83, 78.08 and 78.33.

Long above 78.62 to target 79.63. Must cross 78.87, 79.12 and 79.37.

CAD/CHF

Long 0.6898 and 0.6849 to target 0.7023.

Long above 0.7047 to target 0.7071.

Brian Twomey

Trade Analysis Apr 13 – 17, 2020

Posted on by twbrian

Best trades last week and absolutely perfect were GBP/CHF and GBP/AUD as both achieved targets for ? 500 Pips, 600 Pips?

 

GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.2164, above targets 1.2377.
Strategy. Long 1.2011 and 1.1980 to target 1.2133. Must cross 1.2042, 1.2073 and 1.2104.
Long above 1.2164 to target 1.2347. Must cross 1.2195, 1.2206, 1.2237 and 1.2368. Long only strategy.
GBP/AUD. Break Point 1.9676, above targets 1.9902 and 2.0129.
Strategy. Long 1.9563 and 1.9507 to target 1.9658. Must cross 1.9619 and 1.9647. Long above 1.9676 to target 1.9902. Must cross 1.9732, 1.9788, 1.9844 and 1.9900. Weekly strategy.

Targets are essential to a trade because a target price aligns the currency pair correctly or alignment may also refer to a currency pair achieves target to align the universe of currency pairs. Failure to achieve targets or an uneven price path signifies a severe price problem. Means the price is off kilter and won’t trade correctly. AUD/USD is a classic example.

AUD/USD for example rose from 0.6330, broke 0.6368 and traded to 0.6447 for 100 + pips. But AUD/USD failed to achieve 0.6500’s target. This was a classic trap as pips were earned yet failed at target. Instead, AUD/USD dropped to its weekly entry price 0.6200’s then rose to 0.6385 for another 100 + pips. No choice but to enter at the weekly entry on a second trade. But what if the trade was held to target and failed on the first trade. The answer is hold to target as time is lost but not profit. Or A profit on the second trade nullifies the first trade 100 pip profit for break even. Or small profit. No losses remains the vital import. Yet the overall point was AUD/USD price was severely off track.

 

AUD/USD. Break Point 0.6369, above targets 0.6494 and 0.6556.
Strategy. Long 0.6307 and 0.6276 to target 0.6338. Long above 0.6368 to target 0.6556. Must cross 0.6401, 0.6432, 0.6462, 0.6494 and 0.6524. Long only strategy.
AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF trades worked perfectly to achieve overall +200 ish pips. The insight to AUD/USD was both AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF failed to break its weekly line to signify a move higher. Both dropped to its weekly entry price for second trades and more profits. AUD/JPY actually dropped 100 pips past its weekly entry price to signify an extra added bonus to trade profits. Target achieved for 150 ish pips. AUD/CHF missed weekly entry by about 40 pips but traded to target again. Same trade twice and near picture perfect.
AUD/JPY. Break Point 69.18, above targets 70.85.
Strategy. Long 68.50 and 68.16 to target 68.84. Long above 69.18 to target 70.85. Must cross 69.51, 69.84, 70.17 and 70.50. Long only strategy.
AUD/CHF. Break Point 0.6191, above targets 0.6390.
Strategy. Long 0.6091 and 0.6107 to target 0.6174. Must cross 0.6140. Long above 0.6191 to target 0.6390. Must cross 0.6224 and 0.6257, Long only strategy.
AUDCAD was posted as a public trade and it is the most informed insight to AUD pairs because it represents the top for all AUD pairs for longs. It may also represent a bottom. AUD/CAD was overbought to begin the week and served as a warning to all AUD pairs and explains AUD/USD failure at target and AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF to fail at weekly break point for higher.
AUD/CAD shorts earned 100 + pips but failed at target by only a few pips. Entry was off by about 40 pips. Higher for AUD/CAD had to accommodate higher AUD/USD above 0.6368.

AUD/CAD

Short 0.8878 and 0.8909 to target 0.8786.

Short below 0.8756 to target 0.8601. Watch must cross point at 0.8632.

 

See AUD exchange rates predict exchange rates for further commentary to AUD.

   EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD traded 200 and 300 pips above weekly short entry. Both pairs are wide rangers. Part explanation is NZDUSD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF  traded to weekly entry then dropped further. This forced EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD higher.
NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF traded higher and this forced EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD lower. Add 1 lot to EUR/NZD at 1.8200’s failed at target but profit at 300 pips from 1.8200’s and 150 pips from 1.8085 entry. ADD 1 lot to GBP/NZD at 2.0900’s profit was 300 pips but a small loss at 2.0605 entry. Yet close 40 ish pips from entry then means hold the trade and either exit at entry, small profit or wait for new weekly trade entry and possible target adjustment.
The overall post here is about off kilter prices and its analysis to why, how and trade strategy. 2 days last Friday and Monday without a fix price throws off averages and explains the why.
Normal trades achieve targets and rarely are all prices off to entries and targets. 1 or 2 pairs may fall off kilter in any given week but never all pairs. That concept doesn’t exist.
NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF failed at targets but earned small profits on each trade. Strategy becomes hold to target, exit at break even or as we will do this week is wait for new weekly trade for new entry and possible new target adjustment.
EUR/NZD. Break Point 1.7869, below targets 1.7653 and 1.7437.
Strategy. Short 1.8031 and 1.8085 to target 1.7896. Must cross 1.7977 and 1.7923. Short below 1.7869 to target 1.7653. Must cross 1.7815, 1.7761 and 1.7707. Weekly strategy.
GBP/NZD. Break Point 2.0385, below targets 2.0236 and 2.0086.
Strategy. Short 2.0534 and 2.0607 to target 2.0422. Must cross 2.0497 and 2.0460, Short below 2.0385 to target 2.0086. Must cross 2.0348, 2.0311, 2.0274, 2.0237, 2.0200, 20163 and 2.0126. Weekly strategy.
NZD/USD. Break Point 0.6143. Above targets 0.6283.
Strategy. Long 0.6048 and 0.6025 to target 0.6118. Must cross 0.6071 and 0.6094. Long above 0.6143 to target 0.6283. Must cross 0.6165, 0.6188, 0.6211, 0.6234 and 0.6357. Long only strategy.
NZD/JPY. Break Point 66.73, above targets 67.98.
Strategy. Long 65.70 and 65.30 to target 66.47. Must cross 65.95, 66.20, 66.45, 66.70, 66.95, 67.20, 67.45 and 67.70. Long only strategy. Long above 66.73 to target 67.98. Must cross 66.98, 67.23, 67.48 and 67.73. Long only strategy.
NZD/CHF. Break Point 0.5972, above targets 0.6091.
Strategy. Long 0.5846 and 0.5821 to target 0.5947. Must cross 0.5871, 0.5896 and 0.5921. Long above 0.5972 to target 0.6091. Must cross 0.5997, 0.6032, 0.6056 and 0.6081. Long only strategy.
EUR/USD Lifted from 1.0891 at weekly entry, achieved target at 1.0944 but offered an extra 40 pips to 1.0985. Off kilter again as 1.0962 break point forced longs to enter yet failed at target. EUR/USD like AUD/USD and GBP/USD then dropped to weekly entry to then enter longs again. EUR/USD + 200 ish pips on both trades and caught by 20 ish pips on the 1st trade for failure at target. The second trade missed entry by 40 ish pips for bonus points. Overall, Classic trap for off kilter prices yet salvaged for good profits.
EUR/USD. Break Point 1.0962, above targets 1.1101.
Strategy. Long 1.0891 and 1.0856 to target 1.0944. Must cross 1.0908, 1.0925 and 1.0942. Long above 1.0962 to target 1.1101. Must cross 1.0979, 1.0996, 1.1013, 1.1031, 1.1048, 1.1064, 1.1081 and 1.1098. Long only strategy.
EUR/JPY Another classic trap as prices fell below entry yet closed at near break even. No problem to strategy. Hold to target, add 1 lot and we will profit nicely from JPY cross pairs this week.
EUR/JPY. Break Point 119.07, above targets 120.51.
Strategy. Long 118.34 and 117.97 to target 118.96. Must cross 118.70. Long above 119.07 to target 120.51. Must cross 119.43, 119.79 and 120.15. Long only strategy.
GBP/USD profit +100 pips but failed at 1,2700’s target from break at 1.2515. Then GBP/USD dropped to perfect entry at 1.2409 to trade to 1.2521 for another 100 + pips. 1st trade was caught by 40 ish pips for failure at target.
GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2515, above targets 1.2731.
Strategy. Long 1.2434 and 1.2407 to target 1.2488. Must cross 1.2461. Long above 1.2515 to target 1.2731. Must cross 1.2542, 1.2569, 1.2596, 1.2623, 1.2650, 1.2677 and 1.2704. Long only strategy.
GBP/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY. For GBP/CAD and USD/CAD began the week overbought and CAD/JPY oversold. Higher than normal USD/CAD entry forced GBP/CAD higher than original entry and lower than normal CAD/JPY entry. For strategy, quite an opportunity to add 1 lot to each trade but off kilter prices. GBP/CAD profit 200 pips and close near entry by 50 ish pips. CAD/JPY profit about 20 pips.
USD/CAD entry was off 120 pips, failed at 1.3800’s target yet profit 200 ish pips from 1.4180’s and +60 pips from original entry.
USD/CAD. Break Point 1.3771, below targets 1.3601 and 1.3430.
Strategy. Short 1.4026 and 1.4061 to target 1.3815. Must cross 1.3985, 1.3944, 1.3903, 1.3862 and 1.3821. Short below 1.3771 to target 1.3601. Must cross 1.3730, 1.3689, 1.3648 and 1.3607. Short only strategy.
GBP/CAD. Break Point 1.7221, below targets 1.7089.
Strategy. Short 1.7397 and 1.7441 to target 1.7243. Must cross 1.7353, 1.7309 and 1.7265. Short below 1.7221 to target 1.7089. Must cross 1.7177 and 1.7133. Weekly strategy
CAD/JPY. Break Point 78.96, above targets 80.92.
Strategy. Long 77.47 and 76.99 to target 78.61. Must cross 77.71, 77.95, 78.19 and 78.43. Long above 78.96 to target 80.92. Must cross 79.20, 79.44, 79.68, 79.92, 80.16, 80.40 and 80.64. Long only strategy.
  GBP/JPY performed as CAD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Price traded below entry and small profit or at worst case break even.
GBP/JPY. Break Point 135.95, above targets 137.67.
Strategy. Long 134.79 and 134.50 to target 135.66. Must cross 135.07 and 135.35. Long above 135.95 to target 137.67. Must cross 136.23, 136.51, 136.79, 137.07, 137.35 and 137.63. Long only strategy.
EUR/AUD entry dropped by 100 pips and profit by 300 ish pips. Target achieved at 1.7218 for 200 pips then long 1.7253 profit by 100 + pips but target failed to achieve.
Overall profit pips, ? 1400, 1500?.
 Expect normal prices this week to see entries and targets again trade to perfection. My trade strategy and methodology is perfection to entries and targets and I strive every week by strict math calculations and analysis to achieve perfection. This perfection thing is an ongoing work for 10 + years  Traders earn big profits on my trades and exponential account growth continuously week after week and year after year. And no effort nor screen time is necessary as trade perfection is seen.
My long time friend Peter Wadkins always said I have a unique manner to view and trade not only currency but all market prices and its far from the norm to any other traders. This I always knew as I developed trade strategies against deep analysis and calculations. Its been ongoing for years and streamlined as time went by. Peter is 47 year in fx and a former head at bank treasury departments for 15 + years. Bur as Peter said, how do I prove the remainder banks and traders wrong. Frankly, I can’t particularly because the job is daunting but more so as I don;’t have the reach by computer exposure. And then who wants to waste our days.
 Obviously trades are available for interested
    Brian Twomey

Weekly Trade Update: 18 Pairs Apr 13 to 17

Posted on by twbrian

Seen this week to price paths was unusual and nasty, very tricky. And clearly not my ordinary.

EUR/AUD Highs 1.7314

AUD/USD Lows 0.6284. Me Long 0.6307 and 0.6276 to target 0.6338. Long above 0.6368 to target 0.6556. Round 2 at 0.6284

AUD/JPY Lows 67.57. Me Long 68.50 and 68.16 to target 68.84 achieved. Round 2 longs 67.57

AUD/CHF Lows 0.6084, Me Long 0.6091 and 0.6107. Round 2 at 0.6084

NZD/USD Lows 0.5995, Me 0.6048 and 0.6025 to target 0.6118. 1st weekly entry.

NZD/JPY Lows 64.09 Me 65.70 and 65.30 to target 66.47. 1st weekly entry

NZD/CHF Lows 0.5765, Me 0.5846 and 0.5821 to target 0.5947. 1st weekly entry.

EUR/NZD Highs 1.8261, Me 1.8031 and 1.8085 to target 1.7896 Off 176 bonus points

EUR/USD Lows 1.0895 and 1.0856 Me 1.0891 and 1.0856 to target 1.0944 achieved.

EUR/JPY Lows 116.80 and 117.30 Me 118.34 and 117.97 to target 118.96

USD/CAD Highs 1.4128 Me 1.4026 and 1.4061 to target 1.3815

CAD/JPY Lows 76.09, Me 77.47 and 76.99 to target 78.61

GBP/AUD Lows 1.9513 and highs 1.9856 Me 1.9563 and 1.0507 to target 1.9658, Long 1.9676 to target 1.9902.

GBP/NZD highs 2.0944 Me 2.0534 and 2.0607 to target 2.0422 off 337 bonus points

GBP/CAD highs 1.7697, Me 1.7397 and 1.7441 to target 1.7243 Off 256 Bonus points

GBP/CHF Lows 1.2014 Me 1.2011 and 1.1980 to target 1.2133 achieved

GBP/JPY Lows 134.53 then 133.65 Me 134.79 and 134.50 to target 135.66 Achieved

GBP/USD Lows 1.2439, Highs 1.2645 Me 1.2434 and 1.2407 to target 1.2488. Then 1.2515 to target 1.2731

 

Brian Twomey

Trade Results: 18 Currency Pairs Apr 13 – 17th

Posted on by twbrian

Preliminary trade results for 1 to view this week’s trade results. Results were 1170 pips with ongoing trades in GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY. Pips were earned early and not in a great roundabout way. I’m not thrilled. Not the week I want to view trade results 3 days to go until Friday.

 

EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.7253, above targets 1.7392, 1.7462 and 1.7533.
Strategy. Long 1.7182 and 1.7147 to target 1.7218. Long above 1.7253 to target 1.7462. Must cross 1.7288, 1.7323, 1.7358, 1.7393 and 1.7428.

Short 1.7428 to target 1.7288. Must cross 1.7393, 1.7358 and 1.7323. Short only strategy.

Results: Lows 1.7006, Highs 1.7284
From 1.7147 to 1.7218 = +71 pips. From 1.7218 to 1.7284 = +66 Pips. Total = 137 pips. Target not achieved yet.

AUD/USD. Break Point 0.6369, above targets 0.6494 and 0.6556.

Strategy. Long 0.6307 and 0.6276 to target 0.6338. Long above 0.6368 to target 0.6556. Must cross 0.6401, 0.6432, 0.6462, 0.6494 and 0.6524. Long only strategy.

Results: Results: Lows 0.6330 and no trade as no entry traded.

Long 0.6338, highs 0.6444. Trade ran +76 pips and target remains.
Round 2 longs at entry.

AUD/JPY. Break Point 69.18, above targets 70.85.

Strategy. Long 68.50 and 68.16 to target 68.84. Long above 69.18 to target 70.85. Must cross 69.51, 69.84, 70.17 and 70.50. Long only strategy.

Results: Results: Lows 68.32, Highs 68.84
Trade rans +52 pips

AUD/JPY failed at 69.18 and now trades to weekly long entry again for round 2 longs.

AUD/CHF. Break Point 0.6191, above targets 0.6390.

Strategy. Long 0.6091 and 0.6107 to target 0.6174. Must cross 0.6140. Long above 0.6191 to target 0.6390. Must cross 0.6224 and 0.6257, Long only strategy.

Results: Results: Lows 0.6113 Highs 0.6191
Trade rans + 78 pips

NZD/USD. Break Point 0.6143. Above targets 0.6283.

Strategy. Long 0.6048 and 0.6025 to target 0.6118. Must cross 0.6071 and 0.6094. Long above 0.6143 to target 0.6283. Must cross 0.6165, 0.6188, 0.6211, 0.6234 and 0.6357. Long only strategy.

Results: Lows 0.5997, Highs 0.6130 Minus 51 pips

Trade to target remains

NZD/JPY. Break Point 66.73, above targets 67.98.

Strategy. Long 65.70 and 65.30 to target 66.47. Must cross 65.95, 66.20, 66.45, 66.70, 66.95, 67.20, 67.45 and 67.70. Long above 66.73 to target 67.98. Must cross 66.98, 67.23, 67.48 and 67.73. Long only strategy.

Results: Monday Lows 65.39, Highs 66.00 Tuesday 61 pips
Weekly Lows 64.34

NZD/CHF. Break Point 0.5972, above targets 0.6091.

Strategy. Long 0.5846 and 0.5821 to target 0.5947. Must cross 0.5871, 0.5896 and 0.5921. Long above 0.5972 to target 0.6091. Must cross 0.5997, 0.6032, 0.6056 and 0.6081. Long only strategy.

Results: Monday Lows 0.5853, Tuesday highs 0.5920. +67 Pips
Weekly Lows 0.5795, round 2 longs ready to go.

EUR/NZD. Break Point 1.7869, below targets 1.7653 and 1.7437.

Strategy. Short 1.8031 and 1.8085 to target 1.7896. Must cross 1.7977 and 1.7923. Short below 1.7869 to target 1.7653. Must cross 1.7815, 1.7761 and 1.7707. Weekly strategy.

Results: Highs 1.8203, add lot and short to target Off 119 Pips

EUR/USD. Break Point 1.0962, above targets 1.1101.

Strategy. Long 1.0891 and 1.0856 to target 1.0944. Must cross 1.0908, 1.0925 and 1.0942. Long above 1.0962 to target 1.1101. Must cross 1.0979, 1.0996, 1.1013, 1.1031, 1.1048, 1.1064, 1.1081 and 1.1098. Long only strategy.

Results: Lows 1.0892, Highs 1.0944 + 52 pips
1.0962, highs 1.0990 +28 pips target not achieved

EUR/JPY. Break Point 119.07, above targets 120.51.

Strategy. Long 118.34 and 117.97 to target 118.96. Must cross 118.70. Long above 119.07 to target 120.51. Must cross 119.43, 119.79 and 120.15. Long only strategy.

Results Lows 117.03, Highs 118.73

USD/CAD. Break Point 1.3771, below targets 1.3601 and 1.3430.

Strategy. Short 1.4026 and 1.4061 to target 1.3815. Must cross 1.3985, 1.3944, 1.3903, 1.3862 and 1.3821. Short below 1.3771 to target 1.3601. Must cross 1.3730, 1.3689, 1.3648 and 1.3607. Short only strategy.

Results: Highs 1.4065 just triggered, Ongoing trade to target

CAD/JPY. Break Point 78.96, above targets 80.92.

Strategy. Long 77.47 and 76.99 to target 78.61. Must cross 77.71, 77.95, 78.19 and 78.43. Long above 78.96 to target 80.92.

Results: Lows 76.31, add 1 lot and trade to target

GBP

Favored trades this week GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD.

GBP/AUD. Break Point 1.9676, above targets 1.9902 and 2.0129.

Strategy. Long 1.9563 and 1.9507 to target 1.9658. Must cross 1.9619 and 1.9647. Long above 1.9676 to target 1.9902. Must cross 1.9732, 1.9788, 1.9844 and 1.9900. Weekly strategy.

Results: Lows 1.9513, Highs 1.9658 +145 Pips
2nd leg Long 1.9676, Highs 1.9795 Trade runs +119 pips for total +264 Pips

GBP/NZD. Break Point 2.0385, below targets 2.0236 and 2.0086.

Strategy. Short 2.0534 and 2.0607 to target 2.0422. Must cross 2.0497 and 2.0460, Short below 2.0385 to target 2.0086. Must cross 2.0348, 2.0311, 2.0274, 2.0237, 2.0200, 20163 and 2.0126. Weekly strategy.

Results: Highs 2.0868 off 261 pips and add lot and trade to target

GBP/CAD. Break Point 1.7221, below targets 1.7089.

Strategy. Short 1.7397 and 1.7441 to target 1.7243. Must cross 1.7353, 1.7309 and 1.7265. Short below 1.7221 to target 1.7089. Must cross 1.7177 and 1.7133. Weekly strategy.

Results: Highs 1.7579, add lot and trade to target. Seems GBP/CAD always a missed entry. Targets good.

GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.2164, above targets 1.2377.

Strategy. Long 1.2011 and 1.1980 to target 1.2133. Must cross 1.2042, 1.2073 and 1.2104. Long above 1.2164 to target 1.2347. Must cross 1.2195, 1.2206, 1.2237 and 1.2368. Long only strategy.

Results: Lows 1.2014, Highs 1.2141 + 127 Pips

GBP/JPY. Break Point 135.95, above targets 137.67.

Strategy. Long 134.79 and 134.50 to target 135.66. Must cross 135.07 and 135.35. Long above 135.95 to target 137.67. Must cross 136.23, 136.51, 136.79, 137.07, 137.35 and 137.63. Long only strategy.

Results: Lows Monday 134.53, Highs 135.49 Tuesday +96 Pips

GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2515, above targets 1.2731.

Strategy. Long 1.2434 and 1.2407 to target 1.2488. Must cross 1.2461. Long above 1.2515 to target 1.2731. Must cross 1.2542, 1.2569, 1.2596, 1.2623, 1.2650, 1.2677 and 1.2704. Long only strategy.

Results: Monday Lows 1.2470, Highs 1.2488,

1.2515 to Highs 1.2647, + 132 Pips

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trade Results: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD

Posted on by twbrian

An interesting trade week as currency markets operated without a Fix price on Friday and Monday due to Good Friday and Easter Monday. 2 full days is a lifetime for currency prices. Adjustments to correct prices was revealed Tuesday and this time determined if or by how much moving averages were off kilter. This week’s AUD pairs were off by as much as 30 pips and 30 pips is a good approximation for most currency pairs.

Best trades this week were AUD/USD long and AUD/CAD short, 2 directional trades that doesn’t work but we traded both successfully. No wonder then to AUD/JPY failed at 69.18 and AUD/CHF at 0.6191. AUD/CAD is forced lower in order to reach perfect agreement with remainder AUD pairs. Last week’ NZD was a prime example. All AUD pairs are now at original weekly entry points and round 2 longs are on the way.

Key words above are failed at 69.18 and 0.6191. As mentioned in weekly post, fail means big reversal as was seen.

The question to AUD finally woke up from its months long dead range coma factors as about a 250 pip range for AUD/USD and almost 600 pip range for USD/AUD. This means AUD will continue to be on the move in wider trade ranges. It also means USD is clearly the driver to current markets due to higher ranges.

Historical developments to the RBA is to report daily highs and lows for OCR. Traditional RBA since 1960’s inception of OCR doesn’t allow OCR to trade as OCR is fixed at its headline rate and remains at that rate until a change happens. NZD and the RBNZ is quite different as OCR for New Zealand is allowed free reign daily movements.

Most central banks are still under new developments to institute new interest rate arrangements to replace Libor. The RBI in India revamped the entire interest rate system to now include MIFR and MIBOR. Not sure to Mexico at Banixico what the new term structure for 91 day Cete and TIIE rates mean.

OCR daily movements means AUD will remain a currency pair on the move in day’s ahead as the new interest rate system adjusts.

Trades and results as posted.

AUD/USD

Long 0.6307 and 0.6276 to target 0.6338.
Long above 0.6368 to target 0.6556. Must cross 0.6401, 0.6432, 0.6462, 0.6494 and 0.6524.

Results: Lows 0.6330 and no trade as no entry traded.

Long 0.6338, highs 0.6444. Trade ran +76 pips and target remains.
Round 2 longs at entry.

AUD/CAD

Short 0.8878 and 0.8909 to target 0.8786.
Short below 0.8756 to target 0.8601. Watch must cross point at 0.8632.

Results:
Highs 0.8957, Lows 0.8844
Trade Runs +113 pip
Target remains. Higher AUD/USD is determine by 0.8756.

AUD/JPY

Long 68.50 and 68.16 to target 68.84.
Long above 69.18 to target 70.85. Must cross 69.51 and 70.17.

Results: Lows 68.32, Highs 68.84
Trade runs +52 pips
AUD/JPY failed at 69.18 and now trades to weekly long entry again for round 2 longs.

AUD/CHF

Long 0.6091 and 0.6107 to target 0.6174. Must cross 0.6140.
Long above 0.6191 to target 0.6390. Must cross 0.6224 and 0.6257.

Results: Lows 0.6113 Highs 0.6191

Trade runs + 78 pips

4 trades +319 pips and extremely dull for weekly trades. Yet 3 days remain to the week.

 

For interested, 18 weekly trades will post here this morning and preliminary results as important people are reviewing my weekly trades. A few trades remain open to trade for interested.

And trades are available contact brian@btwomey.com

 

Brian Twomey