Month: September 2021

When EUR/USD broke above the 5 year average July 2020 at 1.1400’s, EUR traded to 1.2300’s by January 2021 or 6 months later.

EUR/USD is again at threat to possibly break below 5 year averages at again exactly 1.1478. Remember words and examples shown from many posts over the years: all EUR/USD tends reverse as EUR/USD is a highly neutral currency pair.

To some degree, EUR/USD is a leader currency pair to currency markets. For example, 1.2300’s reversed to its 5 year average. Lows at 1.0300’s reversed to 1.1400 at the 5 year then broke above to 1.2300’s.

The 5 year average represented middle grounds for EUR/USD since January 2017 while 1.3200’s was the big break for EUR/USD in 2014 when the ECB went negative interest rates.

Overall currency markets as USD and Non USD to include EUR/EM and USD/EM threaten breaks at 5 year averages. Most currency pairs are in do or die situations to 5 and 10 year average breaks. Current EUR/USD vs Non USD currency pairs trade at wide wide oversold and overbought extremes.

The mixed messages to EUR/EM and USD/EM over last weeks is due from USD/EM currencies broke below 5 and 10 year averages while EUR/EM trades above. Yet not all currency pairs are uniform nor in agreement

DXY at 95.00 located the 5 year average.

The strategy moving forward is all USD short and EUR/USD long until a resolution is seen from 5 and 10 year averages. Breaks below and above 5 and 10 year averages would change the strategy. Current USD is massively overbought while EUR/USD and non USD pairs are massively oversold. Either way, a massive trend is upon us.

Below is a long list of 5, 10 and 15 year averages. Listed is SGD as this pair is vitally , vitally important in the EM and G28 lineup of currencies. USD/TRY and EUR/TRY both trade above 5 and 10 year averages. EUR/TRY and EUR/SEK are the exact same currency pairs as exchange rates are the exact same. EUR/NOK is not far away at a 9.000 exchange rate.

EUR/USD 1.1478 at 5Y
GBP/USD 1.3065 5Y
USD/CAD 1.3068.

Note the GBP/USD and USD/CAD relationship at 1.3000’s. This relationship governs all Currency markets.
AUD/USD 0.7315 5Y

NZD/USD 0.6850 5Y
USD/JPY 109.41 5Y
USD/CHF 0.9536 10Y

JPY Cross Pairs
EUR/JPY 126.85 15Y
GBP/JPY 149.66 10Y

AUD/JPY 80.05 5Y
NZD/JPY 76.28 10Y
CAD/JPY 87.18 15Y V 86.45 10Y

CHF/JPY 113.37 5Y
CHF Cross Pairs
EUR/CHF 1.1074 5Y

GBP/CHF 1.2607 5Y
AUD/CHF 0.7062 5Y
NZD/CHF 0.6613 5Y

CAD Cross Pairs

EUR/CAD 1.4984 5Y Vs 1.4554 15 Y
GBP/CAD 1.7055 5Y Vs 1.7280 10Y
AUD/CAD 0.8546 5YNZD/CAD 0.8818 10Y Vs 0.8941 5Y

NZD

EUR/NZD 1.6783 5Y
GBP/NZD 1.9617 10Y Vs 1.9100 5Y

EUR/GBP 0.8788 5Y Vs 0.8413 15 Y

USD/EM

USD/CNY 6.7489 5Y
USD/CZK 22.10 10Y Vs 22.73 5Y
USD/DKK 6.5024 5Y

USD/HRK 6.5228 5Y
USD/HUF 287.69 5Y
USD/IDR 14076. 35 5Y

USD/INR 70.03 15Y
USD/MXN 19.79 5Y
USD/MYR 4.1`722 5Y

USD/NOK 8.6233 5Y
USD/PLN 3.7986 5Y
USD/RON 4.1204 5Y

USD/RUB 15.90 5Y
USD/SEK 8.9063 5Y
USD/SGD 1.3662 5Y

USD/ZAR 14.3767 5Y

EUR/EM

EUR/CNY 7.7385 5Y
EUR/CZK 26.03 5Y Vs 26.28 10Y
EUR/HRK 7.4738 5Y Vs 7.5244 10Y

EUR/HUF 329.85 5Y
EUR/INR 80.36 5Y
EUR/MXN 22.70

EUR/MYR 4.7840 5Y
EUR/NOK 9.9855 5Y
EUR/PLN 4.3528 5Y Vs 4.2890 10Y

EUR/RON 4.7231 5Y
EUR/RUB 75.71 5Y
EUR/SEK 10.2037 5Y Vs 9.6128 10Y

EUR/SGD 1.5669 5Y vs 1.5892 10Y
EUR/ZAR 16.4867. 5Y

Brian Twomey

Last March as posted, the 10 year yield trade price was 1.577 and the range was located from 1.3305 to 1.8448 or 51 points. Above 1.8448 targeted 1.9819. Below 1.3305 targeted 0.805. March achieved highs at 1.7580 and June broke below 1.3305 and traded 1.1290 lows both June and July.

Note March vital MA’s 0.805, 1.3305 and 1.8448 Vs today 1.1803, 1.2290 and 1.6146. The MA at 0.805 is today 1.1803, a 37 point rise in 6 months.

Today’s 10 year yield at 1.51 trades a 38 point range from 1.2290 to 1.6146. Below 1.2290 targets 1.1803 then bottom lows at 1.064, 0.8955, 0.8527, 0.7423. Above 1.6146 targets a 25 point range from 1.6146 to 1.8696.

Most vital to target 1.2290 is 1.4218.

The 10 year yield trades above the 5 year average at 1.9321 and explains Gold above its 5 year average at 1.1400’s at last check.

At current 1.51, the 10 year next resistance is located at 1.5625, 1.6146 then upon a break 1.6183.

Here’s the price path to 1.4218 as follows: 1.5905, 1.5784, 1.5664, 1.5423, 1.5302, 1.5182, 1.4941, 1.4820, 1.4700, 1.4579, 1.4459, 1.4338 and 1.4218.

From 1.4218 as follows: 1.3603, 1.3303, 1.3003, 1.2403, 1.2103,

Daily trades are found at roughly 2 points before the next vital level.

Current averages and vital points reported today should hold for about 3 months.

The strategy below 1.6146 is short as the price at 1.6246 not only represents a vital break to target higher prices but the price is to high within the distribution.

Yesterday 10 year yield closed at 1.536 and this close offers supports for today at 1.5218 and 1.5141 and above resistance at 1.5503 and 1.5581.

USD/CAD Weekly Trade Results

Weekly trade as posted Sunday:

1st Leg

Short 1.2700 and 1.2713 to target 1.2629. USD/CAD traded today 1.2717.

However yesterday’s short from 1.2707 traded to 1.2667 lows or 40 pips.

As suggested to the first leg: The option remains open for long USD/CAD as the 1st leg.
USD/CAD this week had 2 trade options to trade long as the target was previously known Sunday. . Lows achieved 1.2608 and 1.2594.

Once target achieves then next is 2nd, 3rd and 4th legs to the overall weekly trade.

Brian Twomey

For the past 4 weeks, EUR/EM Vs USD/EM aligned as oversold, neutral, neutral, overbought and for the upcoming trading week, massive overbought or massive oversold.

EUR/USD began the week deeply oversold and shorts are impossible while USD/JPY and USD/CHF comply to deeply overbought as longs are impossible. USD/CAD began the week deep oversold yet CAD’s week began trading just above a vital MA and in a horrible position.

USD/JPY overbought began last week from 110.30’s as longs became contrary to correct trading.

Currency pair trade selection to EUR/EM and USD/EM is crucial to profits as the EM market lacks uniformity as EUR/EM and USD/EM.

What separates EUR/EM Vs USD/EM exchange rates is roughly 2000 pips and EUR/EM is always the higher currency to USD/EM as shown. From reverse exchange rates, the opposite is true as EUR/EM trades below USD/EM yet the 2000 pip range holds for reverse exchange rates.

A 2000 pip separation to EUR/EM and USD/EM is miniscule in comparison to traditional EM ranges and movements. EM currencies traditionally trade 8, 9, 1000 pip weeks and more for certain currencies. The problem for EM currencies over last months is ranges completely compressed to the point EM currencies look and trade as dead range G28 currencies, hardly a difference.

Its not unusual for USD and EUR to marry and trade in currency markets as close as kissing cousins in both G28 and EM markets. Lack of interest rate distance as the underlying to exchange rates for ECB and Fed interest rates is the main problem. Neither ECB nor Fed interest rates move anymore and this prevents movements to currency prices to force range compression.

Yet range compression to EM markets may reveal an early warning to big moves ahead as USD/EM and EUR/EM cannot co exist as the present situation.

USD/RON 4.2236 Vs EUR/RON 4.9497 contains EUR/RON as a higher exchange rate and both are massive overbought. Despite a 700 pips separation, RON and MYR are the better currencies to trade EM markets as both RON and MYR exchange rates begin with a 4 handle.

USD/CNY 6.3667 Vs EUR/CNY 7.5796, USD/DKK 6.3443 Vs EUR/DKK 7.4362, USD/MXN 20.0550 Vs EUR/MXN 23.5046, USD/ZAR 14.9641 Vs EUR/ZAR 17.5364.
USD/TRY 8.8836 Vs EUR/TRY 10.4120.

USD/SEK and USD/NOK contain exchange rates to begin with an 8 handle and the same exact currency as USD/TRY for ttriple trades.

A few exceptions exist to EM markets as worthy trades this week: USD/BRL overbought to oversold EUR/BRL and compliance to EUR/USD and USD for G28. Overbought USD/CZK Vs oversold EUR/CZK, overbought USD/HRK Vs oversold EUR/HRK. Overbought USD/KRW vs oversold EUR/KRW.

Problem pairs include PLN, MXN, HUF, MYR, CNY, RON, TRY and ZAR.

Further to the 2000 pip separation and overbought to oversold readings to EUR/EM and USD/EM. Reverse exchange rates factored to interest rates reveals the same overbought and oversold readings. Its impossible to trade the ranges as factored and both USD and EUR exchange rates are problems.

Normally, by factor to reverse exchange rates, great trades exist for USD/EM and EUR/EM as ranges and vital levels are known in advance.

Take USD/CAD for example. Today’s range by reverse exchange rates factors to 1.2554 to highs at 1.2682. The calculation is the result to ranges from USD/CAD to CAD/USD.

This simple factor doesn’t work for EM currencies as it normally does week to week.
EUR/EM and USD/EM normally factors as 2 distinctly separate ranges and trade able currencies for weekly trades.

Brian Twomey

From weekly close comparisons, 9/18 to 9/25, GBP/CHF was the big mover at 168 pips followed by CAD/JPY at 143 pips, USD/CAD 126 pips, EUR/JPY 90 pips, NZD/CHF 80 pips, GBP/AUD 67, GBP/USD 63 , AUD/JPY 47, GBP/CAD 44 and EUR/NZD 43 pips.

Losers to closing prices was EUR/AUD closed at 1.6131 in each of 2 weeks for no change followed by EUR/USD 6 pips, AUD/USD 6 pips, CAD/CHF 3 pips, GBP/JPY 38 pips, GBP/NZD 20, NZD/JPY and NZD/USD at 27 pips.

From weekly close comparisons 9/4 to 9/11, GBP/AUD was the big winner at 212 pips followed by GBP/CAD 192, USD/CAD 163, EUR/AUD 120, AUD/JPY 104, AUD/USD 101, CAD/JPY 97, GBP/NZD 85, EUR/USD 70, AUD/CHF 68.

Losers to weekly close comparisons 9/4 to 9/11: EUR/NZD 4 pips, GBP/JPY 10 pips, NZD/CHF 14, GBP/USD 22 pips, GBP/CHF 25, NZD/USD 30, NZD/JPY 31, EUR/JPY 51 pips.

From monthly close comparisons, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY were clear to big movers followed by GBP/AUD, AUD/CHF and AUD/JPY.

Losers to monthly close comparisons GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, EUR/NZD.

DXY

From 9/4 to 9/11 close difference 55 pips and 24 pips 9/18 to 9/25.

FX Weekly

USD/JPY begins the week massive overbought followed by overbought USD/CHF and oversold USD/CAD. Last week, USD/CAD and USD/CHF were overbought and USD/JPY neutral.

JPY cross pairs last week were oversold and this week best trades are located in AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY remain last in the JPY cross pair rankings.

Best currencies to trade this week: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF.

CAD/CHF was added again to weekly trades. CAD/CHF Correlations to USD/CAD run -91% and +91% to CAD/JPY.

NZD/USD is again deeply oversold to begin the week as was the situation last week but NZD/USD and NZD cross pairs contain range and Noise problems.

GBP

Best trades: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD. GBP/JPY remains dead last as GBP/JPY sits on a vital MA and GBP/JPY lacks range however massive overbought USD/JPY will assist GBP/JPY’s drop.

Weekly Trade USD/CAD

USD/CAD runs almost the exact same trade as last week. The option remains open for long USD/CAD as the 1st leg however trades and rankings are based on easy trades and easy profits without struggle, guesses or gambling.

1st Leg

Short 1.2700 and 1.2713 to target 1.2629.
Price path to target: 1.2687, 1.2674, 1.2661, 1.2648, 1.2635 and 1.2622

2nd Leg

Short below 1.2609 to target 1.2557

3rd Leg

Long 1.2557 to target 1.2583.

4th Leg
Long 1.2629 to target 1.2661.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD target as written Sunday at 1.2629 completed at 1.2632 from 1.2769 and Short Anywhere then 1.2894. As written to the 4th leg of the trade, long 1.2629 to target 1.2661 also completed.

Hold the trade from 1.2894 or thereabouts to 1.2632 target achieved +262 pips. From 1.2894 to 1.2769 then +125 pips. From 1.2769 to 1.2632 then +137 pips.
4th Leg.

Long 1.2629 to target 1.2661 then +32 pips.

USD/CAD’s spike on Monday provided a rare yet huge bonus opportunity for many extra pips profit not originally intended, especially as the jump occurred on Monday. From Monday to Thursday’s target completion, trades operated on pure profit all week.

To exclude Monday’s spike and knowing the target on Sunday, the normal weekly trade would’ve traded from 1.2769 to 1.2629 in 4 days. In 4 days, the Fed, BOJ and BOE met, plus many news announcements and whatever market events.

Under normal circumstances to weekly trades, USD/CAD for example, had 4 days not to watch markets nor care to any market events as targets are written in mathematical stone. Day trades are quite different.

GBP Day Trades

GBP/USD yesterday achieved 1.3707, GBP/CHF 1.2687 and GBP/JPY 150.59.

Next Week

USD/JPY and JPY Cross pairs

USD/JPY begins next week severely overbought from Sunday’s reported neutral position. USD/CHF begins massive overbought while USD/CAD at neutral will hold the USD trifecta position in neutral position and remain the oddball currency among the 3 most vital USD currencies.

JPY cross pairs began this week severely oversold, all traded higher. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY and AUD/JPY trade in crucial do or die situations as all may trade easily higher or lower. Fairly neutral as all currently stand.

NZD/JPY as odd ball trades at severe overbought. Recall last week. NZD/JPY was last on the JPY cross pair rankings and no hurry for a trade.

CAD/JPY sits oversold yet at its crucial break point while USD/CAD trades neutral.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains oversold and targets upper 1.1700’s and lower 1.1800’s easily while EUR/CHF sits at vital high/low point. EUR/CAD trades in its usual monthly position between 1.4911, 1.4984 and 1.4553. Nothing special to EUR/AUD except its usual short highs.

EUR/NZD currently sits oversold and a pair to watch for next week while EUR/GBP contains as usual no excitement and no hurry to trade.

NZD and AUD

Lowest exchange rate NZD/USD, NZD/CAD and NZD/CHF also sits at vital inflection points. Same story for AUD except AUD/CAD at oversold and may decide the determining factor to drive AUD pairs next week.

GBP

GBP currencies so far appears as next week’s winning trades as oversold GBP/USD could easily assist GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY higher. Oversold GBP/NZD as well assists to GBP longs while GBP/AUD matches EUR/AUD short high strategies.

From current prices, currency markets next week appears extraordinary neutral with focus on vital break points unless today brings moves to determine better trades. GBP/USD lower would solidify GBP currencies as the main trades next week and EUR/USD long drops as usual routine for the past few months.. USD/JPY sits on the radar due to current overbought but normally traded as a day trade.

Brian Twomey

Currency markets to USD Vs Non USD are defined by USD/CAD and GBP/USD as 2 most and visible opposites much the same as EUR/USD to CAD/ZAR. The driver to GBP this week was GBP/CHF and USD/CAD;s moves were driven by the GBP/CHF and USD/CAD’s relationship.

Deeply oversold GBP/CHF opened the week at 1.2791 and massive overbought USD/CAD at 1.2769 or 22 pips. USD/CAD and Correlations run +10 and not much assistance. Written Sunday was caution to CHF cross pairs.

USD/CAD eventually crossed above GBP/CHF and traveled to 1.2894 as GBP/CHF dropped to 1.2656 or 238 pips. At yesterday’ s Fed, USD/CAD flew to 1.2796 and GBP/CHF to 1.2559 or 237 pips.

USD/CAD and GBP/CHF today hold a spread of 121 pips but now trades 51 pips. USD/CAD target as written Sunday is 1.2629 and USD/CAD achieved lows at 1.2674 and 45 pips to target with 2 trade days remaining.

Hold the 2nd lot from 1.2894 to 1.2674 runs +220 pips and +95 pips from 1.2769 or actual Short Anywhere as entry doesn’t matter. Hold the 2nd lot to 1.2769 and exit then +125 pips and +95 pips from 1.2769 totals 220 pips.

USD/CAD achieves target either by GBP/CHF higher and crosses USD/CAD or deeply oversold GBP/CHF drops lower to day trade bottom today at 1.2559 and 1.2578. Either way GBP/CHF trades, USD/CAD target remains 1.2629.

The only other manner to track USD/CAD and to ensure target achievement is through GBP/CAD, the Carney Cross. GBP/CAD’s vital point today for lower is 1.7399 and it broke lower to 1.7284.

USD/CAD all week was in a no lose trade situation and added to weekly profits was day trade gains. Monday’s spike was beyond a god send as the spike achieved on Monday allowed shorts to trade all week.

To travel to even more technical depths to lose the crowd to USD/CAD’s target, Canada’s Repo rate or Corra is about to cross most vital Overnight Money Market Finance Rate. This means USD/CAD in days head could travel far lower than the 1.2629 target.

The least to USD/CAD target achievement concerns was and remains 99% to everything written and trades recommended as the whole trading world is so so wrong to a host of aspects and probably begins with charts. Light years of changes occurred since 2016.

GBP/CHF trades again massive oversold and long is the only strategy to target 1.2687 on a break of 1.2660.

GBP/USD as well trades massive oversold and matches GBP/JPY. GBP/USD to today’s highs is located at 1.3698 and 1.3707 then short while GBP/JPY targets easily 150.59 and 150.49 on a break of 150.21.

For BOE, long is the only way forward for GBP. Doesn’t matter what the BOE may say, long is the only trade.

Brian Twomey

DXY trades below its 5 year average at 95.00 and many and massive resistance exists at 94.00’s. Gold trades above the 5 year average at 1400.00’s. DXY and Gold are severely mis positoned as both are the same asset and should trade in tandem above or below 5 year averages.

The S&P’s trade above its 5 year average at 2722.43. The S&P’s and Gold trade above 5 year averages while DXY trades below. Gold broke above the 5 year average March 2019 while the S&P’s traded above the 5 year average January 2020. DXY broke below vital 5 year average January 2020 at the same time the S&P’s traded above.

Gold is off kilter to DXY and the S&P’s and proper to alignment is Gold must trade below the 5 year average to match its counterpart DXY or DXY must trade above 95.00’s. DXY above 95.00 then means the S&P’s must trade below the 5 year average at 2700’s.

if Gold breaks below 1400’s and DXY trades below 95.00’s then the system is aligned as the S&P’s trade in its proper position above the 5 year average.

The result to Gold’s misalignment is lack of trade range. Gold’s total daily trade range is 9 pips or to be perfectly exact 8.88 points for a total of 17.76 points.

GOLD

As day trades are designed for multiple longs and shorts, here’s today’s set ups.
Long 1765.31 to target 1774.19. . Short 1783.07 to target 1778.63.

DXY

Long 92.75 and 92.80 to target 92.98. Short 93.79 and 93.74 to target 93.56.
USD/CHF at 0.9228 remains slight overbought as the week began deeply overbought.

S&P’s

Long 4332.41 and 4337.85 to target 4343.30. Short 4375.97 and 4370.52 to target 4365.08.
Any price below or above stated long and short entries are free money points.

Brian Twomey

At week’s beginning, the suggested short entry was long anywhere or 1.2769. Yesterday USD/CAD traded to 1.2894. Good example to the concept overbought trades to deeper overbought. Opposite overbought is trade oversold to more severely oversold.

Yesterday’s USD/CAD example was seen in a day trade however overbought to overbought and oversold to oversold applies easily to weekly trades. The worst market conditions applies when deeper oversold and overbought trades to deeper oversold and overbought. Doesn’t happen often but on occasion, its happens.

Yesterday’s USD/CAD jump was an enormous opportunity for an extra free money trade and add to weekly profits. USD/CAD day trade top yesterday was 1.2866, USD/CAD traded to 1.2894. Already 28 free money pips exist.

Opportunities such as USD/CAD yesterday doesn’t trade often but the key is to recognize it when it happens and the market will offer free money trades.

The method is add 1 lot short. Then 2 choices exist. The first is exit at breakeven at 1.2769 with 125 pip profit or hold the 2nd lot to target. Hold to target means 2 lots are running and 125 pips profit is already banked. Holding 2 lots doubles trade profit.

USD/CAD traded so far to 1.2741 lows. Hold the 2nd lot now runs +153 pips. The 1st lot profits so far 28 pips for a total of 181 pips. And the weekly trade barely started.

CHF/JPY traded to 3 month lows at 117.51. The weekly target at 118.92 traded to 118.34 so far and runs +80 ish pips.

As addressed in weekly commentary, CHF/JPY targets 115.66 from 122 highs in June. This means continue to short tops to 115.66. Short tops applies to JPY cross pairs. GBP/JPY for example traded to 155 highs in June and lows achieved 149.15 or 600 ish pips.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain deeply oversold and this means shorts are impossible. Deeply overbought USD/CAD means longs are impossible.

Brian Twomey

Best trades this week are found in USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. USD Vs Non USD are the drivers this week to cross pairs and the same story as last week.

USD/CHF begins the week massive overbought however no hurry this week to trade CHF cross pairs as in AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, EUR/CHF, CAD/CHF, GBP/CHF and GBP/CHF. CHF cross pairs are off kilter to USD V Non USD counterparts. No need to chase CHF cross pairs as many good trades exist.
Many good trades exist and the same story as last week.

USD/CAD begins the week overbought and the same situation as last week. While both USD/CHF and USD/CAD begin the week overbought, USD/JPY maintains a neutral position as was the case last week.

From USD/CAD and USD/CHF overbought, USD/JPY maintains 3rd position as neutral. Weekly, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY maintains best 2 out of 3. The weekly struggle is USD/JPY and USD/CHF while USD/CAD is a far better currency to trade and is rarely off kilter to USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

Oversold JPY cross pairs are positioned as next in line to the 18 currency pair weekly rankings due to USD/JPY neutrality. JPY cross pairs include oversold CHF/JPY. Last week, CHF/JPY achieved 5 month lows at 117.92 and is inching ever so slowly to the 115.66 target from June’s 122.00 highs.

CHF/JPY targets 118.92.

No hurry to trade NZD/JPY as this pair is last in the JPY cross pair rankings. While NZD/USD is oversold, the overall NZD universe contains problems and heading into week 2 to range and cross pair problems. Nothin special this week to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD. Better trades and easier money exist than to chase a problem currency.

EUR/GBP sits fairly neutral to begin the week. Recall last week’s target 0.8571 achieved 0.8561. Like USD/JPY and USD/CHF, EUR/GBP isn’t worth trade time or trouble.

   CAD/EM

CAD/EM

Most compliant in the EM space is long CAD/EM except overbought CAD/TRY. Longs work for many pips as CAD/CNY, CAD/DKK, CAD/IDR, CAD/INR, CAD/MXN, dubbed the NAFTA cross.

Next, CAD/RUB from 57.05 targets 57.92. Then CAD/SGD.

EUR/EM Vs USD/EM

USD/EM across the board is deeply overbought however not all USD/EM currencies work as viable trades due to overbought USD/EM matches to overbought EUR/EM. This overbought and overbought situation wont’ work well.

Best USD/EM shorts work as USD/CZK, USD/CNY, USD/DKK, USD/HRK and USD/RON.

Best EUR/EM Long trades are found in EUR/CNY, EUR/MYR and EUR/INR. Remainder EUR/EM currencies it deeply overbought.

Big problem currencies in EM are PLN, KRW, ZAR.

AUD/EM

Best long trades are as follows: AUD/CNY, AUD/DKK, AUD/IDR, AUD/MYR and AUD/SGD.

Weekly Trade USD/CAD

Short Anywhere or 1.2769 to target 1.2629. Next from kindness and competence is offered the price path.

Must cross 1.2747, 1.2726, 1.2705, 1.2684, 1.2663, 1.2642 and 1.2621.

2nd Leg

Short below 1.2576 to target 1.1512.

3rd Leg

Long 1.2512 to target 1.2555.

4th Leg

long 1.2629 to target 1.2661.

Brian Twomey

Yesterday’s USD/CAD as written achieved 1.2621 in 9 hours for +71 pips from 1.2695. USD/CAD actually traded to 1.2619 and note both odd number targets. Currency markets remain trading odd numbers which means target trading for most pairs will contain an odd number.

Entries are open to even or odd for most pairs however with caution as it depends on which days and times of entry and target.

USD/CAD actual 5 day average or 200 hour MA today is located at 1.2642. Yesterday’s USD/CAD 5 day average was located at 1.2652. Tuesday’s 5 day average was 1.2650 and Monday 1.2653. Yesterday’s target was 1.2621.

USD/CAD’s target was 1.2621 on a break of 1.2641. See today’s exact 5 day average at 1.2642. But that’s today and not yesterday. The most a day trade could be off kilter is 1 to 2 pips due to the 2 pip differential between interest rates between Canada and the FED.

But this is the same scenario for all nation’s interest rates. The same for example between the RBA and RBNZ rates. By eyeball view, the interest rate numbers look far different and extremely far apart but in day trade actuality, the numbers are as close as kissing cousins.

So 72 quick USD/CAD pips with exact target and entries. CAD/CHF achieved a quick 69 pips in 2 trades Monday and CAD/JPY. 95 pips in 2 trades or 236 pips total on 3 currency pairs and 5 trades. Trades are few and run continuous all week for all 18 currency pairs not to include day trades.

USD/CAD remains severely overbought, CAD/JPY matches USD/CAD at oversold but CAD/CHF turned neutral and at vital break at 0.7297. CAD/CHF was firmly in the CAD/JPY universe at week’s start but USD/JPY sent CAD/JPY oversold and CAD/CHF no longer holds a trade nor direction.

For USD/CAD shorts, don’t push your luck past 1.2669 entry.

EUR/USD’s 5 day average today is located at 1.1810 and vital point above for higher prices at 1.1861. Day trade tops today at 1.1856 and 1.1864 reveals 1.1861 holds and short is the way as EUR/USD could trade easily to 1.1798 and 1.1779.

USD/JPY continued the fall to 109.10 lows. USD/JPY will have a tough time crossing vital 109.66 which means JPY cross pairs sit at oversold against a fairly neutral USD/JPY.

AUD/USD has held as good trades over the last 3 weeks. Long is the way at 0.7309, 0.7303. Any price below is a bonus to longs. Look for target at 0.7339. The overall target is 0.7354. AUD/USD is a far better trade than current NZD/USD.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD big break for higher is located at 1.1862 and EUR/USD trades below. USD/JPY broke vital 109.65 and trades below to achieve lows at 109.45. EUR/USD and USD/JPY are mispositioned.

Either USD/JPY trades above 109.65 or EUR/USD trades above 1.1862. Correct as 2 opposite currencies and to align USD vs EUR, currency markets must align all USD and non USD correctly.

GBP/USD for example trades below 1.3842, NZD/USD barely above 0.7080 and mispositioned USD/CAD trades above 1.2563.

USD/CAD at severe overbought is clear to again short to 1.2621 on break at 1.2641. USD/CAD last week closed at 1.2686 and trades current 1.2679. Rarely seen for weekly trades to return to the close price but EUR/USD and USD/JPY as misaligned currencies is possible for any scenarios until both rightsize.

USD/JPY affects JPY cross pairs as deeply oversold EUR/JPY trades below 130.06, GBP/JPY trades below vital points. Deeply oversold AUD/JPY trades below and watch NZD/JPY 77.64.

Deeply oversold CAD/JPY sits below 87.31. Recall Sunday CAD/JPY trade to the 2nd leg. Short 87.19 to target 86.88. CAD/JPY traded to 86.33 lows and closed last week at 86.55.

Not only is EUR/USD and USD/JPY misaligned but JPY cross pairs must decide correlations to either EUR/USD or remain with USD/JPY. Misaligned EUR/USD and USD/JPY means JPY cross pairs contain an equal chance to again align to EUR/USD or USD/JPY.

Best trades to cross pairs are long EUR/JPY , AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY. Stand clear GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY and CHF/JPY. CHF/JPY is deeply affected by USD/JPY as the same exact currency.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY must rightsize this week or next week’s trades face crucial selection issues to which pairs are most vital to ease and profit pips.

USD/JPY day trade top is located at 110.07 and 110.01 on a break of 109.79 however 109.65 must first clear above.

Brian Twomey

CAD/CHF as written Sunday, Long Anywhere or 0.7225 to target 0.7276. CAD/CHF yesterday traded straight to 0.7288 for + 46 pips from 0.7230. CAD/CHF dead stopped for the day at 0.7299

.
CAD/JPY Long Anywhere or 86.46 to target 87.19. CAD/JPY traded straight up to 87.07 or 52 pips.

Deeply overbought USD/CAD traded to 1.2637 lows or 51 pips and tracking with CAD/JPY.

USD/CAD achieved highs at 1.2794 and trade instruction to short anywhere.

CAD/CHF now decides in a do or die situation to break above 0.7293 to higher targets at 0.7318 or trade to 0.7253 as written Sunday.

CAD/JPY also must decide to break above 87.38 to target 87.81 or trade lower to 86.88. As written, CAD/JPY achieved lower target at 86.88.

CAD/CHF 0.7293 and CAD/JPY 87.38 are crucial points to USD/CAD lower and higher targets to CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY. USD/CAD remains overbought and targets easily 1.2601.

CAD/CHF 0.7230 and USD/GBP 0.7234 held CAD/CHF and USD/GBP higher which translates as CAD/CHF higher and GBP/USD higher, USD/CAD lower. GBP/USD achieved highs for the week at 1.3882. As USD/CAD trades short, GBP/USD traveled long.

USD/JPY as written Friday, same trade as last week by short 110.36 and 110.42 to target 109.82. Never much happening here to USD/JPY. Watch those yields.

CAD/EM and G28 as CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF traded higher to include vital currency and severely overbought CAD/ZAR. CAD/ZAR higher as the perfect opposite to EUR/USD explains lower EUR/USD for the week to achieve 1.1769 lows.

EUR/USD big break is located at 1.1866 and day trade top today is located at 1.1871. EUR/USD shorts today are located at 1.1856 to target 1.1818.

AUD/USD Vs AUD/EUR

AUD/USD trades below rising line at 0.7439 and AUD/EUR trades below vital 0.6268 or EUR/AUD 1.5954. Both AUD/USD and AUD/EUR are correct to positions as well as EUR/AUD.
EUR/AUD at 1.6100’s begins overbought while AUD/EUR at lower 0.6200’s and higher 0.6100’s starts oversold. Higher EUR/AUD then short and long AUD/USD and AUD/EUR.

Target trading begins almost year 10 since 2011 and 2012. Triangulation trades or trade of 3 currency pairs contains many, many examples on my blog for interested. The trade of 3 pairs to triangulate allows a deeper view to price targets and lends much confidence and profits to trades with understanding to how and what is traded.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD and all CAD currencies are favored this week as best trades and in first positions in the 18 currency pair rankings. CAD/CHF was added as the 19th currency for the week ahead. The future of CAD/CHF as addition to permanent weekly rankings and trades is undecided however CAD/CHF is an essential currency to trades and evaluation for all CAD currencies including CAD/EM.

USD/CAD as an anchor currency is quite different from EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/USD as those currencies contain a wider universe of currencies and much easier to evaluate trades than CAD.

CAD contains USD/CAD and CAD/JPY as both opposite movements pairs but many weeks both are located in neutral zones which means the price of USD/CAD and CAD/JPY are more closer to each other rather than distant. And significant averages are close.

CAD/CHF’s role in the CAD lineup serves its purpose many weeks as the deciding factor to lend confidence to USD/CAD and CAD/JPY trades. CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY is generally one unit or the same exact pairs while USD/CAD due to USD in the first position is opposite. The line up is USD/CAD vs CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF.

CAD/CHF is a good mover currency and profits by many pips on the same level as GBP/CHF but complete opposites to movements as USD/CHF, CHF/JPY, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF. The driving force to CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY is clearly USD/CAD as USD/CAD contains wide ranges to its smaller range counterparts CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.

Currently, USD/CAD serves as a middle currency position to GBP/USD and EUR/USD as

GBP/USD 1.3823
USD/CAD 1.2686
EUR/USD 1.1807.

In year 2020, USD/CAD’s position switched to top currency as the lineup became
USD/CAD 1.4400’s
GBP/USD 1.4212
EUR/USD 1.2300’s.

USD/CAD eventually crossed below GBP/USD and above EUR/USD to assume its current middle position status.

Spreads alone informs to USD/CAD middle position.

GBP/USD vs USD/CAD 1137 pips
USD/CAD vs EUR/USD 879 pips
GBP/USD Vs EUR/USD 2016 pips.

USD/EUR, CAD/USD and USD/GBP

USD/EUR 0.8469
CAD/USD 0.7882
USD/GBP 0.7234

CAD maintains middle position to reverse exchange rates. However the spreads compressed as

USD/EUR Vs CAD/USD 0.0587
CAD/USD Vs USD/GBP 0.0648
USD/EUR Vs USD/GBP 0.1235.

USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF

USD/CAD 1.2686
CAD/JPY 86.55
CAD/CHF 0.7230.

The week

USD/CAD short, CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF long.

CAD/JPY,, CAD/USD, CAD/CHF Reverse Exchange Rates

CAD/JPY 0.8655
CAD/USD 0.7882
CAD/CHF 0.7230.

USD/CAD maintains middle status to CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF. USD/CAD or CAD/USD maintains the price driver position.

CAD/CHF Vs USD/GBP.

CAD/CHF closed 0.7230 and USD/GBP 0.7234. If CAD/CHF goes long then CAD/CHF may cross above USD/GBP to mean the same as GBP/USD will trade short. Lower GBP/USD is the same as long USD/GBP and CAD/CHF which says CAD/CHF is following as a USD currency.

CAD/JPY Vs EUR/GBP

CAD/JPY 86.55 or 0.8655
EUR/GBP 0.8535.
CAD/JPY and EUR/GBP this week goes long as both are the exact same currency pair.

CAD/JPY Vs EUR/GBP Further Evaluation.

CAD/JPY 0.8655 or 1.1554
EUR/GBP 0.8535 or 1.1716.

Note CAD/JPY oversold to EUR/GBP as both head long this week and EUR/GBP as the driver price

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Weekly Trades EUR/GBP, CAD/CHF, CHF/JPY, CAD/JPY

EUR/GBP Long targets 0.8573. Long above 0.8580 to target 0.8595. Or Short 0.8573 to target 0.8557.

CAD/CHF Long Anywhere or 0.7225 to target 0.7276. Long above 0.7290 to target 0.7318. Or short 0.7276 to target 0.7253.

CHF/JPY Long 119.45 and 119.34 to target 119.76. Long above 119.87 to target 120.18. Short 120.18 to target 119.97.

CAD/JPY Long Anywhere or 86.46 to target 87.19. Long above 87.38 to target 87.81. Short 87.81 to target 87.51. Or short 87.19 to target 86.88.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD 1.3823
USD/CAD 1.2686
EUR/USD 1.1807

GBP/USD vs USD/CAD 1137 pips
USD/CAD vs EUR/USD 879 pips
GBP/USD Vs EUR/USD 2016 pips

USD/CAD is overbought and to close to GBP/USD and heading closer to EUR/USD. GBP/USD is the driver pair to this week’s USD/CAD. If the EUR/USD and GBP/USD gap closes then USD/CAD is caught in the middle to range, range and go nowhere fast.

Or
USD/EUR 0.8469
CAD/USD 0.7882
USD/GBP 0.7234

USD/EUR Vs CAD/USD 0.0587
CAD/USD Vs USD/GBP 0.0648
USD/EUR Vs USD/GBP 0.1235

CAD/USD is dead center to USD/EUR and USD/GBP

This Week

CAD/JPY 0.8655
CAD/USD 0.7882
CAD/CHF 0.7230

OR

USD/CAD 1.2686
CAD/JPY 0.8655
CAD/CHF 0.7230

CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF are to low and USD/CAD much to high.

Brian Twomey

A written, USD/CAD is best Currency short to target low 1.2600’s. Highs achieved 1.2763 and lows 1.2605 or +158 pips. At least 158 pips available as stated, on entry anywhere. Know target then entry is a breeze.

Yesterday’s EUR/USD achieved target at 1.1836 and traded 1.1838. Missed entry though as stated 1.1784 never traded. However, know target then entry is a breeze.

CHF/JPY as written Sunday shorts below 119.91 to target 119.48. Target achieved and lows traded to 119.44 and + 43 pips to 119.48.

Not reported was profits on 9 NZD/EM trades and as stated Sunday, each trade target was 2 to 300 pips or easily 1800 pips at the 200 pip targets.

The 10 year yield traded 9 weekly points yet USD/JPY profit 125 pips on 85 weekly pip range. Yield are a separate entity than USD/JPY and matters none to USD/JPY moves, targets and entries. Yields are a separate entity to interest rates and in a class by themselves.

Interest rates predict yields, currencies and all financial instruments including stock markets and commodditites. Using yields to predict currencies employs the market to forecast the market. This is not the proper manner as other more profitable ways exist.

GBP/CHF as usual over the last 5 weeks traded well at 132 weekly pips and beat GBP/USD at 161 pips.
GBP/NZD as 1st position traded 158 pips vs 140pips for EUR/NZD and EUR/NZD was correct in 6th position.
AUDUSD at 6th place last week was correct as AUD traded 124 pips. AUD/USD was actually in neutral positions all week and not trade able.

NZD/USD was correct as 1st position short and the easiest trade of the week to achieve 81 weekly pips. NZD/USD will again earn 1st position shorts for next week and the easiest trade for next week. AUD will again remain a distant middle to last position.

NZD/USD last week closed 0.7146 and today trades 0.7150. Same trade will run for next week with a target at least 61 pips compared to this week’s 81.

NZD/USD 81 pips is matched by DXY weekly pips at 82. NZD/USD is the most closely aligned currency to DXY and USD interest rates. No other currency compares. USD and NZD both contain 253 trade days per year and explain the 253 day average as the best marker for yearly trade days. EUR/USD trades 265 trade days as the highest trade day currency.

USD/JPY never trade far from the 109.89 target. Lows achieved 109.54 or 30 pips from target. We leave the petty trades alone.

USD/JPY next week will trade almost the exact same trade as shorts from 110.38 and 110.45 targets 109.95 without much trouble. USD/JPY overall is a dead currency and making zero weekly progress to a significant break point and far better weekly move.

USD/CAD and CAD/CHF so far looks long for next week however lower for both would assist the long story. CAD/JPY is the off kilter outlier to the CAD story and the same as this week.

GBP/USD and EUR/USD aligns as short for next week and both matches perfectly to NZD/USD shorts.

GBP/CAD will lead the GBP charge for next week while GBP/NZD looks like a repeat performance as the same trade next week as this week.

GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD both threaten to break lower. Work for trades is completed on the weekends but this is the view as it stands this minute.

Brian Twomey

As written Sunday, USD/JPY targets 110.34 and 110.41 then short to target 109.89

Highs 110.43, Perfect.

From USD/JPY Sunday open at 109.68, +73 Pips.

Then short 110.41 to target 109.89

Lows 109.89. Perfect. +52 pips.

2 trades, 4 days, +125 pips.

USD/JPY weekly Range 109.58 to 110.43 or 85 pips. from 85 pip range, profit +125 pips.

Weekly trade profits run +50% to 70ish% pips to all traded weekly pips. We profit at least 50% of all traded pips for weekly trades, sometimes more, other times much more.

Weekly trade profits doesn’t include day trades. Include day trades then profits are much more than +125 pips and just as accurate as weekly trades.

As usual, no stops, charts, graphs, Fibs and no technical analysis. We left technical analysis 10 years ago when trade losses mounted and we realized technical analysis was a failure all around.

USD/JPY was a guaranteed trade so no reason to watch screens all day.

Sunday, CHF/JPY 119.88 broke lower to 119.48 weekly lows so far for +40 pips.

EUR/USD

Yesterday’s big break line for higher was located at 1.1869. Today the line is located at 1.1870.

As written yesterday, 1.1851 and day trade 1.1854 was in the reversal zone and EUR/USD could trade much lower. EUR/USD traded to 1.1851 yesterday and achieved lows at 1.1801 or 50 pips.

EUR/USD is located in a fairly neutral position.

For ECB, long 1.1775 and 1.1784 to target 1.1836 easily for a quick 52 pips.

Day trade lows are located at 1.1763 and 1.1778 while highs are located at 1.1883 and 1.1875 on a break of 1.1853. Higher assumes break of 1.1870 and a big hurdle. The ECB safe trade is the best option.

USD/CAD remain the best short trade to enter anywhere to target lower 1.2600’s.

The Currency Price 00’s.

GBP/USD low price today is located at 1.3700. AUD/USD topside targets 0.7400. NZD/USD first price in the overall price path is 0.7100.

The currency price at 00’s trades frequently and the number holds no significance as it is just a number.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD in the 1.1830’s is located in a horrible location as must break for higher is located at 1.1869., above targets easily 1.1923 and 1.1932. Not only is 1.1869 a big hurdle today but day trades must break 1.1862 before consideration of 1.1869. Day trade highs today are located at 1.1892 and 1.1884. As usual, a bank is slated to send readers down the road of losses.

Today’s 1.1847 to 1.1854 is crucial to EUR/USD as 1.1851 and 1.1854 is also located in the reversal zone and could see EUR/USD trade much lower. Bottom levels are located at 1.1787 and 1.1772.
Heed the Sunday warning, this week as well as last week are tough markets due to price positions and trade selection was imperative. Much easier trades exist than fight with an uncertain EUR/IUSD. The same story applies to AUD/USD.

NZD/USD short as written Sunday for the week’s best trade already traveled 62 pips lower and the trade was a breeze with guaranteed profits.

GBP/NZD as first position rankings for GBP currencies traveled 97 pips higher to 1.9447. GBP/NZD is in long drop mode to target easily 1.9520 then 1.9535. GBP/NZD trades much higher when NZD/USD breaks below 0.7061.

GBP/USD at 1.3756 is oversold and faces a brick wall at 1.3825 to trade higher.

USD/JPY as written Sunday targets 110.34 and 110.41 then short to target 109.89. USD/JPY highs traded to 110.43 and now traded lows at 110.13. Longs traded 76 up and 30 pips down and totals 106 pips. Hopefully all are running at least 80 and 90 pips and much more when 109.89 trades.

Watch USD/JPY 109.64 to trade lower and 109.64 coincides to EUR/USD at 1.1869.

EUR/GBP as written Sunday long 0.8530 and 0.8538 to target 0.8573.The entry price never traded yet highs achieved target at 0.8573. Highs for the week traded 0.8612. Impossible to trade a currency or any market price if entry fails to trade. Only option is no trade available.

USD/CAD is overbought and shorts are the only way forward. USD/CAD is the best trade available for all G28 currencies to target easily 12625 and 1.2609. CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY sits oversold. CAD/CHF is the wild card to the CAD cross pair complex as it doesn’t know to attach to CAD/JPY or USD/CAD.

This is partly what tough markets mean. Better markets exist when price and cross pairs are in agreement. Off kilter throws markets way off the correct price path. Trade selection becomes crucial.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, not much happening here today. Not much was happening Sunday. Both were last or near the end on the weekly rankings.

USD/CHF sits at richter scale overbought. Best to trade USD/CAD short.

Watch CHF/JPY at 119.88. Lower assist USD/JPY to achieve target.

Brian Twomey

As usual, interested in trades then contact brian@btwomey.com

Trade Rankings: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, NZD/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, AUD/CHF, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY.
Best trades this week is NZD/USD. Last week, NZD cross pairs and NZD/EM began the week overbought then NZD/USD broke above 0.7011 and NZD currencies traveled into richter scale overbought.

NZD/USD this week is in overbought agreement to not only NZD cross pairs but NZD/EM achieved a far higher degree of overbought. Lower NZD/USD as the bottom most currency is enough to drop EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

Added to overbought NZD is massive oversold USD/EM and oversold permeates across all USD/EM. The problem with oversold USD/EM is EUR/EM is also deeply oversold and the same situation as last week. Either USD/EM or EUR/EM must win but not both.
USD/EM and EUR/EM oversold partly explains the paralysis to range compression to G28 currencies experienced over past weeks. Range compression remains upon us for the upcoming trade week.

Overall currency pairs begin the week in horrible positions and the same predicament as last week. Trade selection again is crucial for the next week.

The difference between closing prices from last to this week is about 100 pips and 200 ish pips for wide range currency pairs, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and EUR/NZD.

AUD moves to the rear of the rankings while NZD moves forward. USD/CAD is not terrible on its own and we are long however CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF fail to assist to easy and most profitable trades due to positions.

GBP

Favored trades this week: GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD.

The only difference from last week is GBP/NZD earns first position otherwise no changes to the line up. Same old story for GBP.

USD/JPY begins the week oversold yet sits just above vital 109.58. Provided 109.58 holds,

USD/JPY targets 110.34 and 110.41 then short to target 109.89. Note USD/JPY is the same exact weekly trade as last week. Must be those yields again.

Watch CHF/JPY 119.91 break to target 119.48. CHF/JPY is the exact same pair as USD/JPY.

EUR/GBP long 0.8530 and 0.8538 to target 0.8573.

NZD/EM

Short Entries don’t anywhere, only targets as targets are 2 to 300 pips from entries.
NZD/CNY targets 4.5909 from 4.6219
NZD/CZK targets 15.2664 from 15.3002.

NZD/DKK targets 4.4298 from 4.4767.
NZD/IDR targets 10185.86 from 10215.51.

NZD/KRW targets 816.19 from 827.02
NZD/MYR targets 2.9442 from 2.9699
NZD/PLN targets 2.7073 from 2.7187

NZD/RON targets 2.9374 from 2.9789.
NZD/SGD targets 0.9503 from 0.9609.

Brian Twomey

As written yesterday to EUR/USD 1.1847 was protected by day trade highs at 1.1850 and 1.1858. EUR/USD traded to 1.1858, through 1.1847 to 1.1837.

USD/JPY as written yesterday short 110.43 targets 109.94. USD/JPY traded to 109.87 lows for a quick day trade at +55 pips.

Sunday. JPY cross pairs higher and USD/JPY oversold. Correct.

Overall, currency market prices are located at crucial points to break and travel higher or massive reversal. Time for caution as seen and reported to currency pair trade selection on Sunday.

EUR/USD break for higher is located at 1.1855 and 8 pips higher than yesterday’s 1.1847. A rising line and a rising price usually informs the price fails to break and trades lower. EUR/USD had ample opportunity to break higher at lower levels and failed. Day trade highs could trade easily to 1.1893 and 1.1901.

GBP/USD big break at 1.3817 is also a rising line. A break targets day trade highs at 1.3842 and 1.3851. Day trade lows could easily take GBP to 1.3728 and 1.3711 on a break at 1.3750.

AUD/USD big break at 0.7414 is protected for today by day trade highs at 0.7412 and 0.7517. Short highs is the strategy to target day trade lows at 0.7341 and 0.7350.

Day Trades

Used in conjunction to match weekly trade entries and targets, day trade profits and vital break determinations. Day trades are extra pips earned while waiting for weekly targets to complete.

USD/JPY no changes since yesterday. Must be those yields again. Shorts are located at 110.36 and 110.43 to target 108.95 for weeklies and 109.54 and 109.41 day trade lows. Watch big break 109.58.

NZD/USD is the problem currency for the week and ranked 6th in the overall 18 pair rankings. NZD/USD is mid range and could easily fly higher or lower however higher means NZD cross pair travel to further overbought. Highs today could easily trade to 0.7109 and 0.7104 however caution to NZD is warranted as NZD/USD is rising along with a rising price.

GBP/JPY watch 151.40 as current price is close.
AUD/JPY watch 81.22, CAD/JPY 87.34.

CHF/JPY target at 115.66 stands however mcuh time as this target takes. CHF/JPY is the exact same pair as USD/JPY and married at the hip much the same as GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.
CHF/JPY 115.66 target means short strategies until targets achieve as 500 pips of shorts remain.

USD/CAD day trade highs are located at 1.2681 and 1.2678 but USD/CAD is pushing the limitss at 1.2678. Good target 1.2615 and 1.2594.

Oversold EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP watch 0.8580.

Time for deep caution as vital points are upon us. Failure to break today then tomorrow prices head for the close.

Brian Twomey

As written yesterday, EUR/USD higher required a break at 1.1845. EUR/USD traded to 1.1844 then to current lows at 1.1793. Today, higher must break above 1.1847. Day trade highs today are located at 1.1850 and 1.1858. EUR/USD 1.1847 is protected to short tops for today. Lows today could easily achieve 1.1751 and 1.1838.

GBP/USD higher must break above 1.3813. GBP/USD traded to `1.3807 and dropped 75 pips to 1.3732 lows.

USD/CAD 1.2554 lifted from 1.2578 on Canada’s GDP release to 1.2651 highs or 73 pips. No surprises here ever going on as we run dats for perspective.

USD/JPY 109.58 rose from 109.60 to 110.36 highs or 76 pips.

As written currency pair trade selection was crucial.

Best Trades

EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD.

Results

EUR/USD 62 pips, USD/CAD 72, AUD/USD 57 pips, EUR/AUD 124 and EUR/NZD 158 pips.
Best trades were clear to easy, entries, targets and profits.

JPY Cross Pair Rankings

AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY.

Results

EUR/JPY last ranking scored 83 pips, AUD/JPY 117, CAD/JPY 88 pips, NZD/JPY 128.

GBP

GBP/JPY 3rd ranking 96 pips Vs GBP/USD 1st rank at 74 pips, GBP/CHF 2nd at 119 pips while last for GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD 132 and 215 pips.

GBP/CAD trade for the week wasn’t clear but combined USD/CAD and CAD/JPY as better trades together traded 160 pips. We’ll take 160 easy pips vs much work and gamble to 132 pips.

USD/JPY

As written Sunday, USD/JPY targets 110.34 and 110.42 then short. USD/JPY traded 110.43. Now short to target 109.94 on a break at 110.28. Day trade lows today are located at 109.64 and vital break for lower is located at 109.61.

USD/CAD is protected to at 1.2550 as day trade lows are located at 1.2545 and 1.2561.

NZD/USD is well protected at 0.7022 and massive overbought NZD/JPY at 76.97.
NZD currencies are in a giant flux and trades aren’t clear so why to not bother as better trades exist. NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF and NZD/JPY trade massive overbought while NZD/USD sits comfortably at 0.7057.

Brian Twomey