The BOJ hasn’t touched JPY by intervention since 2011 and 2010 at the time of the nuclear reactor at Fukushima. USD/JPY was 82.00 then. The monthly data since 1971 free float below.
https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/international_policy/reference/feio/monthly/index.html
Brian Twomey
Total 572 articles accounted for 2016 to 2019. Today’s 1000 + trade articles adds to 2007 when writing began. Article count must be in the multiple 1000’s and we consistently delivered trades and profits.
From btwomey.com. Jackson Hole 2017, EUR/USD rose for the day at 169 pips Vs Last week’s Jackson Hole at 143 pips. DXY in 2017 dropped 103 pips Vs last week at 129 pips. No changes in 5 years.
In 2017, DXY traded 92.42 and EUR/USD at `1.1900’s or a spread at 2600 pips Vs today’s spread at 800 ish pips.
The answer is not in the spreads but the averages. EUR/USD trades 1400 pips from the 5 year average at 1.1471 and deeply oversold from the 50 day average at 1.0137 to the 5000 day averages in 1999. EUR/USD 5 year average in 2017 was 1.2000’s.
USD/JPY trades massively overbought from the 10 day average at 137.33 to the 5000 day averages. USD/JPY trades severely overbought from the 5, 10 and 15 year averages at 111.00, 109.00’s and 102.00’s. The 5 year average in 2017 was at 106.00’s.
DXY 5 year average is located about 1200 pips from current 108.00 at 96.00’s.
The same 1200 pips is seen from current GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD.
The current EUR/USD Vs DXY and non USD currencies trades at wide extremes and must compress. The 5 year averages are moving at roughly 100 pips per year.
Top ranked AUD/JPY was the winner this week with yesterday’s 154 pip drop and beat all JPY cross pairs.
EUR/USD 1.0072 traded to 1.0053 highs from 0.9914 lows. EUR/USD requires a weekly close above 0.9989 to consider a trend higher in focus. Target would then become 1.0133.
The current driver at 1.0276 would then travel higher to allow EUR/USD to rise.
Below 0.9989 then EUR/USD contains ability to trade to a lower degree of oversold.
As mentioned in the weekly, EUR/USD cross pairs would outperform and this was the case yesterday.
Best trades for this day is EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD.
Brian Twomey
By April 2019, a total of 572 articles were published on Fxstreet. A full 3 years later, 572 must be in the vicinity 0f 800 and 1000 articles. To post 1 article per week for 10 years equates to 480.
The vast majority were trades and trade related / in depth information such as Correlations, interest rates, money supplies, moving averages. Trades always accompanied analysis to understand the trades.
Target trading was a standard since 2012 and continues to this day. Target trades were short and long term. Many long term trades for 6 and 8 week durations hit targets perfectly for 5, 7 and 1000 pips and all published prior to the trade.
Profit pips from published trades must be in the 100,000 vicinity easily. For 5 months of 2019, weekly trades profited 24,000 pips alone. Trades and targets weren’t contained to G28 and EM currencies but targets achieved for long term trades on Yields, interest rates, WTI, SPX and Gold.
Trades still factor by pen, paper and calculator. The difference today is calculations are easier due to upgrades from days past.
I liked trading USD/CLP and Copper and achieved targets for both. The same may be accomplished with USD/MXN and Silver as Banxico changed the relationship to MXN and Tiie interest rates to slow MXN price speeds in accordance with Silver.
Forecasted correctly in years past were NFP’s, GDP and many economic announcements. No difference today as banks and forecasters still can’t be trusted. Last GDP forecast for example predicted correctly and beat the Atlanta Fed Nowcast.
Jackson Hole 2017, the 2 year yield traded at 1.32 and today 3.38 or 2.06 point difference in 5 years.
The walk down memory journey was quite astounding as the best of research, features and trades were brought to FxStreet readers. All freely given and found at btwomey.com.
The Week
EUR/NZD target last week at 1.6258 traded to 1.6253 on Friday. Then short target at 1.6184 traded to 1.6213.
NZD/JPY target at 84.25 traded to 84.24 Friday.
Trade Raking
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CAD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/NZD.
Not much difference from last week as EUR/JPY relegates back to last due to its position. Currency markets are defined as EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY. Best trade for CHF are NZD/CHF, GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF.
Oversold EUR/USD is contained from 0.9999 to 0.9853. Above 0.9999 targets easily 1.0072.
USD/JPY and JPY cross pair strategy remains short to target USD/JPY 136.26 to start.
EUR/USD cross pairs are outperforming GBP cross pairs week to week and this week will see the same performance. EUR/NZD for example will outperform GBP/NZD as occurred last week.
GBP Trade Rankings
GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY . GBP/JPY for the 2nd week sits n last position while GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD trade oversold. Not looking for much performance to GBP/NZD this week.
Brian Twomey
USD/JPY crossed below EUR/JPY and USD/CAD crossed below EUR/CAD.
AUD/USD achieved perfect target at 0.6982. The trade: Long Anywhere or 0.6864 and 0.6854 to target 0.6982. Lows 0.6855, highs 0.6982 and +127 pips.
USD/CAD is within 22 pips to target 1.2877. The Trade: Short Anywhere or 1.3013 and 1.3020 to target 1.2877. Highs 1.3063, Lows 1.2899. From 1.3020, +121 pips.
Add USD/CAD to total pips +1401 and on the way to 2000.
USD/CAD at 1.2877 becomes dangerous. Here’s our Weekly trade options: Short below 1.2856 to target 1.2799. Long 1.2799 to target 1.2842. Cautious long 1.2877 to target 1.2927.
The same trade options applied to CAD/CHF yesterday as CAD/CHF 2nd, 3rd and 4th legs as follows: Long above 0.7424 to target 0.7463. Short 0.7463 to target 0.7437. Cautious short 0.7411 to target 0.7372.
CAD/CHF broke above 0.7424 and traded perfectly to 0.7463 for +39 pips. Then short 0.7463 to target 0.7437 achieved lows at 0.7443 for +20 pips.
CAD/CHF total this week: +121 pips.
EUR/USD was off 118 pips from entry. No problem to add 1 lot. EUR/USD achieved highs at 1.0032 from long entry 1.0020 and 1.0013.
Today is Thursday and a long way to go to completion to weekly trades on Friday.
EUR/USD trend changes to up, up and away on a break of 1.0300’s. EUR/USD trades 1400 pips from the 5 year average at 1.1400’s. EUR/USD trades sloshing around going nowhere fast.
Brian Twomey
EUR/JPY as posted yesterday +232 pips.
GBP/CHF Long Anywhere or 1.1323 and 1.1314 to target 1.1512. Lows 1.1297, highs 1.1420 and 92 pips to target. Trade runs +123 pips.
USD/JPY Short 137.35 and 137.42 to target 135.46. Highs 137.70, Lows 135.80. From 137.42 trade runs +162 pips.
AUD/USD Long Anywhere or 0.6864 and 0.6854 to target 0.6982, Lows 0.6855, Highs 0.6962 and 20 pips to target. Trade Runs +107 pips.
AUD/CHF Long Anywhere or 0.6585 and 0.6570 to target 0.6675. Lows 0.6577, highs 0.6692 and +98 pips.
2nd Leg. Short 0.6675, target 0.6630. Lows 0.6658 and +17 pips. Total 115 pips.
NZD/CHF Long Anywhere or 0.5915 and 0.5905 to target 0.6053. Lows 0.5912, highs 0.6011 and +99 pips.
CAD/CHF Long 0.7352 and 0.7346 to target 0.7411. Lows 0.7358, Highs 0.7411 and +53. 2nd Leg Long above 0.7424 to target 0.7463. Highs 0.7448. Trade runs +78 pips.
AUD/JPY Short 94.56 and 94.62 to target 93.19. Highs 94.84, lows 94.09 and +53 pips.
NZD/USD Long Anywhere or 0.6167 and 0.6159 to target 0.6325. Lows 0.6156, highs 0.6243 and +87 pips.
NZD/JPY Short 84.80 and 84.90 to target 84.25. Highs 85.13, lows 84.42 and 17 pips to target. Trade runs +48 pips.
CAD/JPY Short 105.80 and 105.88 to target 103.99. Highs 105.76, Lows 104.85. Trade Runs +95 pips.
USD/CAD Short Anywhere or 1.3013 and 1.3020 to target 1.2877. Highs 1.3062, lows 1.2932. From 1.3020 and +88 pips.
GBP/USD Long Anywhere or 1.1817 and 1.1809 to target 1.2008. Lows 1.1716, highs 1.1877 and +68 pips.
Total so far 1287 pips, 12 trades and 3 days. Expectation is 2000 pips as targets achieve full destinations.. GBP/USD 68 pips not included to totals.
USD/JPY and JPY Cross pairs performed perfectly to forecasts. CHF cross pairs also performed to predictions.
Oversold EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD sit at entries. About 100 pips off from wide rangers EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. Off by 100 to EUR/USD. My miss was also our benefit as we bank wide range pips on the way up.
Brian Twomey
EUR/JPY completed the first 2 legs to the weekly trade. Short 137.83 and 137.91 to target 137.12 for +89 pips. Perfect entry at 137.91. Then the 2nd leg as Short below 136.80 to target 135.85. Lows achieved 135.70 for +95 pips.
So far 2 trades, +184 pips in 2 days. The 3rd leg just completed as long 135.85 to target 136.33. Highs just traded to 136.31 for +48.
Total EUR/JPY +232 pips.
EUR/JPY’s benefit this week to shorts and the leading JPY cross pair was the EUR/JPY cross below USD/JPY. Same principle as EUR/CAD crossed below USD/CAD. Both situations will reverse as EUR/CAD will trade above USD/CAD and EUR/JPY above USD/JPY.
EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD both sit at entry and oversold as well as overbought USD/JPY and USD/CAD.
GBP/JPY trades below big breaks at 161.82 and 161.87.
GBP/JPY short trade: short 162.35 and 162.41 to target 162.11 completed. Highs achieved 162.49. Not much to GBP/JPY weekly trade and last on the GBP rank list.
NZD/CHF Long Anywhere or 0.5915 and 0.5905 to target 0.6053. Lows achieved 0.5911 and perfect entry while highs achieved 0.5971 and long way to target and profits. +42 pips.
CAD/CHF Long 0.7352 and 0.7346 to target 0.7411. Lows achieved 0.7358 and highs 0.7420 for +62 pips. Perfect entry and perfect target.
The CAD/CHF 2nd, 3rd and 4th legs as follows: Long above 0.7424 to target 0.7463. Short 0.7463 to target 0.7437. Cautious short 0.7411 to target 0.7372.
The benefit to CHF cross pairs is to trade together with anchor pairs for double and multiple trades. CHF currencies lack the range of anchor pairs however every week, multiple longs and shorts exist to match the profits from anchor pairs.
Note longs and shorts anywhere to entries.
This week’s market began at massively oversold to EUR/USD, GBP, NZD and AUD while USD pairs as USD/JPY and USD/CAD began deeply overbought.
Its impossible to trade continued longs and shorts to oversold and overbought conditions. Rare weeks and the most dangerous situation throughout the years is seen oversold trades to more oversold or overbought to more overbought. These are unhealthy markets. The only rectification is add 1 lot and trade to breakeven or to target.
Overall for the majority of trade weeks, a trade begins at entry and ends at target.
The benefit to this week as is the case every week is 12 currencies run 24 hour trades and 8 currencies trade for 7 hours. Profits always exist. Running daily and weekly trades are current: SPX, WTI, Brent, XAU/USD and DAX.
Brian Twomey
All 21 weekly trades contain multiple longs and shorts. Trades so far.
USD/JPY as written to weekly Trades: short 137.35 and 137.42 to target 135.46. Highs 137.42, lows 136.68. Trade Runs +74 pips.
EUR/JPY short 137.83 and 137.91 to target 137.12. Highs 137.91, Target 137.12, lows 136.90. Trade complete +89 Pips.
2nd Leg short below 136.80 to target 135.85. Lows 136.59 and +21.
NZD/USD Long 0.6167 and 0.6159 to target 0.6325. Lows 0.6167, highs 0.6207. Trade Runs +40 pips.
So far, 3 Trades perfect entries, +224 pips.
AUD/USD Long Anywhere or 0.6864 and 0.6854 to target 0.6982. Lows 0.6880, Highs 0.6898. + 18 pips.
EUR/CAD Long 1.2987 and 1.2971 to target 1.3169. Lows 1.3013. Almost ready for longs.
EUR/AUD Long 1.4533 and 1.4527 to target 1.4690. Lows 1.4505 and ready to go.
AUD/JPY Short 94.56 and 94.62 to target 93.19. Highs 94.82, lows 94.21. From 94.62, +41 pips.
NZD/JPY Short 84.80 and 84.90 to target 84.25, Highs 85.16, Lows 84.67. So far, +23 pips.
USD/CAD Short Anywhere or 1.3013 and 1.3020 to target 1.2877. Highs 1.3010.
CAD/JPY Short 105.80 and 105.88 to target 103.99.. Highs 105.76, Lows 105.12. Trade Runs +64 pips.
So far, 6 Trades, +370 pips and adding.
EUR/NZD Long 1.6193 and 1.6184 to target 1.6258.Lows 1.6141, off entry by 40 pips. EUR/NZD last currency to Ranking.
GBP/CHF Long Anywhere or 1.1323 and 1.1314 to target 1.1512. Lows 1.1314, Trade just started.
GBP/JPY achieved 161.22 perfectly. Longs to 161.52. Not only last to GBP trade ranks but not much to do with GBP/JPY.
GBP/USD Long Anywhere or 1.1817 and 1.1809 to target 1.2008. Lows 1.1782, off 27 pips.
GBP/CAD Long Anywhere or 1.5323 and 1.5313 to target 1.5535. Lows 1.5334, highs 1.5352.
GBP/AUD Long 1.7154 and 1.7146 to target 1.7346, Lows 1.7099, off 47 pips.
GBP/NZD Long 1.9089 and 1.9080 to target 1.9237, Lows 1.9021, off 59.
The 2 skitzy pairs this week: EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD but last on trade rank list as we saw it coming Sunday.
Slight off by GBP but thank you for the bonus points.
Monthly subscription paid in 1 day and 6 trades as we stand behind our trades and ability.
Brian Twomey
DXY should hold through end of Monday trade. Currently overbought
Most Vital 107.82 and 107.88 Vs 108.16, 108.23, 108.30, 108.37, 108.44, 108.51, 108.58, 108.65
Bottom 107.55 achieves by 107.68 and 107.82
Upper target 108.65
Continuation fail 108.37
Brian Twomey
Favored trades this week: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF, EUR/NZD.
Will the market crash today? We’re prepared. No stops, charts, Graphs, Fibs. Factored by Pen, Paper and Calculator.
Best trades: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY.
AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF good long trades, caution CAD/CHF.
GBP Best Trades: GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY. Caution GBP/JPY.
GBP/JPY big break 161.82, close 161.82. May never see this perfection again in our lifetime.
EUR/USD Break Point 1.0377, above targets 1.0440.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 1.0020 and 1.0013 to target 1.0187. Must cross 1.0051, 1.0082, 1.0113, 1.0144, 1.0175, 1.0190. Short 1.0187 to target 1.0124.
USD/JPY Break Point 132.03, below targets 131.05.
Strategy. Short 137.35 and 137.42 to target 135.46. Must cross 137.11, 136.87, 136.63, 136.39, 136.15, 135.91, 135.67, 135.43, 135.19. Long 135.46 to target 135.95.
AUD/USD Break Point 0.7012, above targets 0.7052.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 0.6864 and 0.6854 to target 0.6982. Must cross 0.6883, 0.6902, 0.6921, 0.6940, 0.6959, 0.6978, 0.6987. Long above 0.7012 to target 0.7052. Short 0.7052 to target 0.7032. Cautious short 0.6982 to target 0.6933.
NZD/USD Break Point 0.6368, above targets 0.6397.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 0.6167 and 0.6159 to target 0.6325. Must cross 0.6195, 0.6223, 0.6251, 0.6279, 0.6307, 0.6321, 0.6335. Short 0.6325 to target 0.6267.
EUR/JPY Break Point 136.80, below targets 135.85.
Strategy. Short 137.83 and 137.91 to target 137.12. Must cross 137.68, 137.53, 137.38, 137.23, 137.08. Short below 136.80 to target 135.85. Long 135.85 to target 136.33. Cautious long 137.12 to target 137.75.
EUR/CAD Break Point 1.3337, above targets 1.3420.
Strategy. Long 1.2987 and 1.2971 to target 1.3169. Must cross 1.3003, 1.3019, 1.3035, 1.3051, 1.3067, 1.3083, 1.3099, 1.3115, 1.3131, 1.3147, 1.3163, 1.3179. Short 1.3169 to target 1.3071.
EUR/AUD Break Point 1.4798, above targets 1.4852.
Strategy. Long 1.4533 and 1.4527 to target 1.4690. Must cross 1.4560, 1.4587, 1.4614, 1.4641, 1.4668, 1.4695, 1.4722. Short 1.4690 to target 1.4608.
AUD/JPY Break Point 92.51, below 92.05.
Strategy. Short 94.56 and 94.62 to target 93.19. Must cross 94.34, 94.12, 93.90, 93.68, 93.46, 93.24, 93.02. Long 93.19 to target 93.88.
NZD/JPY Break Point 83.97, below targets 83.40.
Strategy. Short 84.80 and 84.90 to target 84.25. Must cross 84.66, 84.52, 84.38, 84.24, 84.10. Short below 83.97 to target 83.40. Long 83.40 to target 83.68. Cautious long 84.25 to target 84.81.
USD/CAD Break Point 1.2856, below targets 1.2799.
Strategy. Short Anywhere or 1.3013 and 1.3020 to target 1.2877. Must cross 1.2985, 1.2957, 1.2929, 1.2901, 1.2873. Short below 1.2856 to target 1.2799. Long 1.2799 to target 1.2842. Cautious long 1.2877 to target 1.2927.
CAD/JPY Break Point 102.68, below targets 102.02.
Strategy. Short 105.80 and 105.88 to target 103.99. Must cross 105.64, 105.48, 105.32, 105.16, 105.00, 104.84, 104.68, 104.52, 104.36, 104.20, 104.04, 103.88. Long 103.99 to target 104.65.
AUD/CHF Break Point 0.6690, above targets 0.6720.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 0.6585 and 0.6570 to target 0.6675. Must cross 0.6600, 0.6615, 0.6630, 0.6645, 0.66 0, 0.6675. Short 0.6675 to target 0.6630.
NZD/CHF Break Point 0.6075, above targets 0.6120.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 0.5915 and 0.5905 to target 0.6053. Must cross 0.5937, 0.5959, 0.5981, 0.6003, 0.6025, 0.6047, 0.6069. Long above 0.6075 to target 0.6120. Short 0.6120 to target 0.6098. Cautious short 0.6053 to target 0.5985.
CAD/CHF Break Point 0.7424, above targets 0.7463.
Strategy. Long 0.7352 and 0.7346 to target 0.7411. Must cross 0.7365, 0.7378, 0.7391, 0.7404. Long above 0.7424 to target 0.7463. Short 0.7463 to target 0.7437. Cautious short 0.7411 to target 0.7372.
EUR/NZD Break Point 1.6295, above targets 1.6369.
Strategy. Long 1.6193 and 1.6184 to target 1.6258. Must cross 1.6211, 1.6229, 1.6247, 1.6265. Long above 1.6295 to target 1.6369. Short 1.6369 to target 1.6332. Cautious short 1.6258 to target 1.6184.
GBP
Favored trades this week: GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY
GBP/USD Break Point 1.2276, above targets 1.2353.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 1.1817 and 1.1809 to target 1.2008. Must cross 1.1836, 1.1855, 1.1874, 1.1893, 1.1912, 1.1931, 1.1950, 1.1969, 1.1988, 1.2007, 1.2026. Short 1.2008 to target 1.1970.
GBP/CAD Break Point 1.5777, above targets 1.5858.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 1.5323 and 1.5313 to target 1.5535. Must cross 1.5363, 1.5403, 1.5443, 1.5483, 1.5523, 1.5563. Short 1.5535 to target 1.5454.
GBP/AUD Break Point 1.7505, above targets 1.7569.
Strategy. Long 1.7154 and 1.7146 to target 1.7346. Must cross 1.7185, 1.7216, 1.7247, 1.7278, 1.7309, 1.7340. Short 1.7346 to target 1.7250.
GBP/CHF Break Point 1.1711, above targets 1.1777.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 1.1323 and 1.1314 to target 1.1512. Must cross 1.1339, 1.1355, 1.1371, 1.1387, 1.1403, 1.1419, 1.1435, 1.1451, 1.1467, 1.1483, 1.1499, 1.1515. Short 1.1512 to target 1.1462.
GBP/NZD Break Point 1.9276, above targets 1.9335.
Strategy. Long 1.9089 and 1.9080 to target 1.9237. Must cross 1.9108, 1.9127, 1.9146, 1.9165, 1.9184, 1.9203, 1.9222, 1.9241. Long above 1.9276 to target 1.9335. Short 1.9335 to target 1.9315. Cautious short 1.9237 to target 1.9158.
GBP/JPY Break Point 161.82, Close 161.82.
Strategy. Long 161.22 and 161.29 to target 161.52. Or short 162.35 and 162.41 to target 162.11.
Brian Twomey
NZD/USD earns its place at the bottom by trade ability and math. Central banks are responsible for this by interest rates but also by the 2016 central bank changes to the currency price. Manipulate the currency price as the smallest price on the planet then all market prices are affected.
A Median and Simple average traditionally governed the currency price since 1972’s free float. The Median average was discarded so all market prices work on simple averages. Elimination of the Median price destroyed volatility to today’s trade in dead markets.
NZD/USD Topside today 0.6246, 0.6250, 0.6254, 0.6258, 0.6267, 0.6270, 0.6274. Spreads by 4 pips and permanent condition since 1972 as longs as NZD exists.
Next we work our way up to next best.
AUD/USD today: 0.6920, 0.6924, 0.6928, 0.6933, 0.6937, 0.6942, 0.6946, 0.6951. Spreads to 4 and 5 pips. Permanent condition to AUD as long as AUD exists.
Next is tragic EUR/USD topside today: 1.0090, 1.0096, 1.0102, 1.0109, 1.0115, 1.0122, 1.0129, 1.0135. Spreads 6 and 7 pips. No better than NZD and AUD. Should spread 8 and 10 pips easily but given a death sentence by the ECB. The EUR should trade easily X 2 and 2.5 to NZD and AUD.
GBP/USD Today: 1.1915, 1.1923, 1.1930, 1.1938, 1.1945, 1.1953, 1.1960, 1.1968, Spreads 7 and 8 pips, exceeds EUR/USD by 1 and 2 pips and X 2 to AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Yet extremely deficient for GBP/USD and today’s permanent condition.
Next comes the Battle Royale, the expertise of trading and USD V Non USD.
USD/CAD topside: 1.2969, 1.2977, 1.2985, 1.2993, 1.2001, 1.2009, 1.3017, 1.3026> Spreads 8 pips but fairly normal at 7 and 8 pips to match GBP/USD.
USD/JPY: 136.36, 136.45, 136.53, 136.62, 136.70, 136.79, 136.87, 136.96, Spreads 8 and 9 pips to earn its place as king of the road to exceed USD/CAD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD. Fairly permanent condition for USD/JPY.
EUR/JPY: 137.51, 137.60, 137.68, 137.77, 137.85, 137.94, 138.03, 138.12. Spreads 8 and 9 pips to match USD/JPY. EUR/JPY begins the revelation to the death of currency prices and currency cross pairs as no difference exists to EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. And this is permanent for EUR/JPY in the new trade environment.
GBP/JPY: 162.40, 162.50, 162.60, 162.71, 162.81, 162.91, 163.01, 163.12, Spreads 10 and 11 pips and classifies as the JPY cross pair king yet extremely light to post 2016.
DXY: 107.70, 107.77, 107.84, 107.91, 107.98, 108.04, 108.11, 108.18. Spreads 6 and 7 pips and permanent
If every currency pair was listed, not much difference exists to spreads and most trade not far from DXY.
A Price series must be known in advance of the trade as a price series knows not only tops and bottoms for longs and shorts but most importantly offers the perfect balance to a price. Applies to any market price.
A market price is found in a permanent range.
Brian Twomey
EUR/USD ranges this week as written Sunday were: 1.0298 to 1.0175. EUR/USD traded 1.0268 to 1.0122 or a 53 pips drop from 1.0175. Next week aligns as 1.0273 to 1.0150. What changed? 25 pips. We’re looking for the close around 1.0150 then long again for next week. Big break for higher last week was 1.0420 and next week 1.0396.
Oversold EUR/CHF at 0.9688 assists EUR/USD longs next week to target 0.9800’s. EUR/JPY’s big break at 136.95 broke below Monday and traded 200 pips to 134.93. Next week, 136.82 is the deciding factor for EUR/JPY shorts. Overall range is located from 137.15 to 138.16.
Oversold EUR/CAD traded 113 pips higher then dropped 158 pips. The Friday close around 1.3088 would assist again to EUR/CAD longs and further help EUR/USD higher.
EUR/NZD approaches 1.6297. A big drop is required for EUR/NZD longs next week or EUR/NZD is placed last to overall trade rankings.
EUR/NZD traded its best day yesterday since last Wednesday at 295 pips higher. Last Wednesday traded 235 pips lower. No progress to EUR/NZD except trading normal ranges.
EUR/AUD traded 322 pips this week and traveled straight up from Sunday at 1.4392. The move was required to alleviate severe overbought to AUD/EUR. AUD/USD is now fairly perfect to AUD/EUR alignment. Overall, EUR/AUD back to 1.4500’s and 1.4400’s for next week.
EUR/USD driver pairs next week are EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD.
GBP/USD range Sunday was located from 1.2178 to 1.2029. GBP/USD 1.2178 held at 1.2141 highs and lows at 1.2029 broke below to 1.1994 or 35 pips. GBP/USD was forced lower by overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Next week 1.2149 to 1.1999 and extremely short range. Long for next week to match EUR/USD longs.
GBP/JPY 161.99 traded to 159.00’s and 163.00’s in a fairly balanced trade week. Shorts next week with focus on 161.82. GBP/JPY larger range remains 148.00’s to 168.00’s.
GBP/CAD traded 159 pips higher this week. A close Friday at 1.5400’s then long again for next week.
GBP/NZD traded 500 pips this week from 1.8700’s to 1.9200’s. Higher or lower for GBP/NZD at 1.9277. A significant move lower is required for longs next week.
As written Sunday: focus is on deeply oversold wide range currency pairs: GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD. The primary concentration to oversold and trades is found in GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.
GBP/AUD as well failed to disappoint as GBP/AUD traded 383 pips higher this week and straight up from Sunday. Next week’s range is located from 1.7378 to 1.7246.
AUD/USD now trades oversold and long for next week with focus on 0.7024. AUD/CAD broke 0.9009 and traded 70 ish pips to 0.8951. Higher must break above 0.9020.
AUD/NZD broke below 1.1012 and traded 22 pips lower to 1.0990.
AUD/USD longs are assisted next week by AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD.
NZD/USD longs for next week matches AUD. NZD/USD trades oversold from 0.6260’s. NZD/CAD traded 100 pips lower from the break Tuesday at 0.8185.
NZD/USD Longs are assisted by NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD as all are in compliance to longs.
USD/JPY range this week 132.65 to 135.71 traded 132.58 to 135.49. Shorts for next week and higher prices assists to short profits.
JPY cross pairs last weeks traded short ranges and this is positive as ranges are normalizing after months of non normal. This means moves are better predictable, better trades and normal ranges.
USD/CAD despite 200 pips traded this week remains a problem currency. The 5 year average approaches at 1.2973. USD/CAD 200 pips is matched by DXY 145 traded pips this week.
Brian Twomey
A written Sunday, AUD/USD from 0.7120 shorts achieved 0.7053 then broke below vital 0.7023. The target from break at 0.7023 was 0.6993 then long to 0.7013. AUD/USD dead stopped this morning at 0.6990 then 0.7013. Perfect trading and many pips.
AUD/USD Big break for higher is now 0.7029 to target 0.7049, 0.7059 and a big line at 0.7067. AUD/EUR remains extremely overbought and is the driver to lower AUD/USD and short rallies. Today’s bottoms are located at 0.6992 and 0.6987. For the week, AUD/USD has every ability to trade to 0.6970 and 0.6951.
NZD/USD traded to target at 0.6409 then broke below vital 0.6379. The target at 0.6290 traded to lows at 0.6323 so far. NZD/USD Big break for higher is located at 0.6386 and targets 0.6415 and 0.6444. NZD has every ability to trade to 0.6285 and 0.6271 then long to target 0.6329.
Overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain drivers to EUR/USD and GBP/USD but primarily due from overbought AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR. EUR/USD and GBP/USD lacked any choice except to trade lower.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD were winners yesterday by trading 114 and 100 pips Vs EUR/USD at 99 and GBP/USD at 98. USD/JPY was typically absent on big trade days as total pips traded 103.
Big winner yesterday was GBP/AUD at 223 pips then EUR/CAD 180, GBP/CAD 160, GBP/NZD 218, EUR/NZD 160 and EUR/AUD at 150. The upside as written Sunday was about 160 pips.
GBP Bottoms are located at 1.1988 and 1.1981. Upside targets are found at 1.2051, 1.2094 then 1.2129 and 1.2147. GBP/USD overall range remains 1.2168 to 1.2020 or a 10 pips change from Sunday.
Long remains the GBP/USD strategy.
EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD trades deeply oversold and in the same position to start the week from Sunday. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD also trade deeply oversold . GBP/AUD trades 100 pips higher from the Sunday open at 1.7023 and EUR/AUD 60 ish pips higher. Wide rangers contain a long way to travel higher.
GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD trade fairly neutral. Longs for GBP/CAD are located at 1.5481 or in the vicinity and EUR/CAD at 1.3029 and 1.3045.
EUR/USD Broke below 1.0175 and traded to 1.0133. EUR/USD Bottoms are located at 1.0113, 1.0115 and 1.0230 and 1.0128.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both oversold and in compliance to EUR and GBP cross pairs.
DXY traded 100 pips yesterday. Lower must cross below 106.62, 106.04 and anove 107.39.
USD/CAD traded 168 pips yesterday and lower must break 1.2834. USD/CAD trades deeply overbought and remains a problem currency.
EUR/JPY trades safely below 136.94 and oversold. Same story for oversold GBP/JPY and big break at 161.89. No changes to EUR/JPY nor GBP/JPY. AUD/JPY approaches oversold at 93.47, NZD/JPY at 84.60 while CAD/JPY achieved oversold at 103.62.
AUD/CAD held 0.9009 and traded lows to 0.9033. Today’s big break is at 0.8989. NZD/CAD 0.8185 broke to 0.8166 lows and 0.8191 is required to trade higher.
Overall downside to a vast majority of our currency pairs are about 50 pips then watch out as deeply oversold contains easy ability to trade much higher.
Brian Twomey
The currency market story this week contains many parts however initial focus is on deeply oversold wide range currency pairs: GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD. The primary concentration to oversold and trades is found in GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.
Why GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD traded to such deep oversold levels is the contention between overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD Vs neutral to oversold EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
The anchor pairs lack uniformity as AUD/USD and NZD/USD are deficient to range compared to counterparts EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Lack of agreement across the board forced wide range currency pairs into Richter Scale oversold.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD broke above significant points at current 0.7023 and NZD/USD 0.6379 while GBP/USD trades below vital 1.2327 and EUR/USD below 1.0420.
Agreement is rectified by initial shorts to AUD/USD and NZD/USD then long. AUD/USD big break for lower is located at 0.7023 and target at 0.7053. Break of 0.7023 then targets 0.6993 then long to 0.7013. The important point for AUD/USD is 0.7053 to determine the 0.7023 break or higher to 0.7102.
The AUD/USD short trade is clear from overbought and the assistance to shorts is derived from severely overbought AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD and uncertain AUD/NZD. Watch AUD/CAD 0.9009 and AUD/USD 0.7023 while AUD/NZD big break at 1.1012 from the open at 1.1033. Nothing special to AUD/CHF except to follow AUD/USD.
NZD/USD is a replica of AUD/USD with a slight twist. Short NZD/USD targets 0.6409 then decision time to break 0.6379 to target 06290 or long 0.6409 to target 0.6467. NZD/JPY trades overbought, no assistance from neutral NZD/CHF and watch NZD/CAD at 0.8185. Short rallies applies to all NZD as NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY and NZD/CAD. Watch shorts at 0.8305.
EUR/USD ranges from 1.0298 to 1.0175. EUR/USD longs are assisted by oversold EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. EUR/USD longs however are located at lower levels to comply with AUD/USD and NZD/USD overbought.
GBP/USD achieved 1.2105 as written last Thursday. Lows traded to 1.2107 and GBP/USD closed at 1.2131 from highs Thursday at 1.0248.
GBP/USD maintains the same story as EUR/USD. GBP/USD trades from 1.2178 to 1.2029. The benefit to GBP/USD longs at lower levels is due to not only comply to overbought AUD and NZD but to oversold GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.
The problem with EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD longs is both lack range and each are good for about 150 pips higher. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are quite different as both contain much room to roam higher.
USD/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 131.63 and currently trades a wide range from 132.65 to 135.71. We’re short at higher levels.
EUR/JPY’s big break for higher is located at 136.95 and the same 3 week old EUR/JPY story to horrible position. GBP/JPY big break at 161.99 joins the EUR/JPY ranks to last place and horrible position. The better trades as usual are short AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY.
DXY as written for weeks is contained from its new range from 105.00 to 103.00’s. Higher must break 105.49, 105.72, 105.81.
Gold traded 37 points last week and 41 points 2 weeks ago. SPX traded 86 points last week and 89 points 2 weeks ago. WTI traded 7 points last week and 11 points 2 weeks ago.
As DXY maintains tiny ranges, Gold and Commodities will follow by maintaining short ranges.
Brian Twomey
EUR/USD topside yesterday was set against targets at 1.0256 and 1.0259. Both extraordinary moves for the day and both targets achieved for big profits yet EUR/USD breaks vital 1.0285 and trades another 82 pips to 1.0367. Note the location of 1.0285 as dead center of the hourly candle.
The break of 1.0285 then placed EUR/USD from 1.0285 to 1.0350. What allowed EUR/USD to travel higher was the ECB at 10:00 then EUR/USD was good until 1.0304. The BOE at 11 am stopped EUR/USD to begin the long slide lower to 1.0320. The Fed at 12:30 then settled EUR/USD at 1.0296 from 1.0367 highs or71 pips.
EUR/USD yesterday traded for the day overall 167 pips and about 67 more than normal. On the surface appears as just another EUR/USD trade day but 1.0285 set EUR/USD off 82 of the 167 pips or 1/2 of its total 167 pip range.
The 2 most vital points to traded markets are overall ranges and range points such as 1.0285. How much was 1.0285 respected was seen in the weekly trade target at 1.0283. Friends and subscribers profits were 130 ish pips but the pips were easy and guaranteed. And the trade duration was 4 days.
Range Vs Price shares the most unique relationships and most vital to understand market trading.
What were the trade options. Not only was EUR/USD overbought at 1.0285 for the day but 1.0285 location was dangerous. The only option was short and short anywhere.
EUR/USD moves yesterday were unusual, extraordinary and in mathematical weirdo ville. Correct was EUR/USD to reverse at 1.0250’s.
Who or possibly which central bank took EUR/USD higher from 1.0285 is unknown. We’re not privy to such information anymore as was the norm in the old days from the top 4 banks. Previously, the top 4 banks release Flow Reports to determine who to major banks and central banks were big buyers and sellers.
EUR/USD Big break for higher is now 1.0420 and the range becomes 1.0357 to 1.0294. Below 1.0294 targets 1.0231 easily. EUR/USD Friday should close in the vicinity of 1.0168. The lower for EUR/USD is the better for the long trade next week.
GBP/JPY shorts yesterday at 163.82 traded to 163.64 then began the long drop to 161.00’s. GBP/JPY vital at 162.01 allowed GBP/JPY to trade to 161.00’s. Big break for higher is now 162.05.
EUR/JPY is on the verge to trade lower at 136.95. EUR/JPY is a horrible currency at the moment heading into week 3. EUR/JPY trades neutral to neutral without significant progress. EUR/JPY is more suited as a day trade. EUR/JPY broke vital 136.93 and traded 30 pips lower to 136.60. This should serve as a warning to EUR/JPY.
DXY achieved 106.45 and USD/CAD 1.2990’s. As written yesterday, USD/CAD 1.2958 Vs DXY 106.45. The DXY V USD/CAD differential spread from 20 ish pips to 40’s.
Higher for USD/CAD must break 1.2835. DXY now enters its next range from 103.00’s to 105.00’s. Vital above is located at 105.54, 105.76 and 105.80 Vs 104.30 below.
The breaks below for DXY was significant as much as 1.0285 was for EUR/USD.
AUD/USD broke above 0.7001 and lower for AUD/USD must crack 0.7013. Current range 0.7055 to 0.7096 then begins overbought and shorts.
Most important to overall currency markets is NZD/USD break above 0.6362 and today 0.6368. NZD/USD at 0.6417 is fairly neutral which means NZD has every ability to travel to 0.6500’s or break below 0.6368. We’re short next week in the vicinity of 0.6490’s or long upon a break of 0.6368.
GBP/AUD yesterday was written longs at 1.7395. Correct was short at 1.7395. Deeply oversold GBP/AUD should be a big winner for longs next week. Same story for EUR/AUD.
USD/JPY for next week 131.61.
GBP/USD. Looking for a close around 1.2104 for longs next week. A close much higher then GBP/USD is on the last place of the trade rank list.
EUR/NZD as written yesterday long for a quick 50 pips at 1.6178. EUR/NZD traded 1.6150 to 1.6274. EUR/NZD current trades deeply oversold and informs NZD/USD could easily break 0.6368.
Gold traded 20 points yesterday and expected to trade 10 points today. SPX traded 31 points yesterday and within the 25 point framework. Max today is right at 47 pips.
Brian Twomey
EUR/USD this week to its weekly range trades from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips. Today’s range: 1.0285 to 1.0155 or 130 pips. Yet another dead EUR/USD week is upon us. The benefit is day trades all week are located within the parameters of 1.0285 to 1.0155.
Today’s topside EUR/USD for example is located at 1.0258 and 1.0262. Far short to 1.0285. Bottom EUR/USD 1.0154 and 1.0172.
Today’s Inflation trade appears from yesterday afternoon to be a non event as today’s prices lack range ability which means Inflation is released as expected and prices trade in tiny ranges.
The trade strategy is short highs and long bottoms. Same strategy as if today wasn’t Inflation day.
DXY traded highs this week at 106.81 and between 106.52 to 107.01. DXY traded 83 pips this week from 106.81 to 105.97. Sunday’s range 105.47 to 106.52 and 107.01.
DXY Vs SPX
DXY traded 71 pips Monday Vs SPX 45 points. Tuesday DXY traded 43 pips to SPX 57 points.
DXY is expected to trade today at 106.45 highs and 105.90 lows Vs SPX 4141 Vs 4107.
Neither DXY nor SPX contains any ability to move today except within the same dull ranges. DXY is the problem and as long as DXY fails to move then SPX and Commodities follows non movements. The currency price is the driver to Stock and Commodity markets. When DXY decides to move then Stocks and commodities trade from dead ranges.
View DXY and SPX trades together as 25 point increments especially SPX.
AUD/USD big break is located at 0.7003 and the same story as last week. AUD/USD is going nowhere fast.
From 12 currency for 24 hour trades, here’s the lineup: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/USD.
GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are fairly standard everyday for 24 hour trades as best trades. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD gain advantage by not only wide ranges but a dead AUD. EUR/CAD is best of the wide range group which informs again, not much is happening today.
EUR/NZD at current 1.6207 is at bottom range 1.6178 and good for a quick 50 pips higher. EUR/AUD at 1.4652 trades dead center to middle range. Longs are located in the vicinity of 1.4562 while GBP/AUD also trades middle range and untouchable. Longs are located around 1.7395.
GBP/JPY at 163.30 is untouchable. Shorts are located from 163.82 or longs from around 162.61. GBP/JPY big break for lower is found today at 162.01.
GBP/USD range from Sunday 1.2174 to 1.2013 held. Watch shorts at 1.2130 and longs around 1.2013.
NZD/USD tops at 0.6313 and 0.6328.
USD/CAD traded 113 pips this week Vs DXY at 86. USD/CAD highs today: 1.2958 Vs DXY 106.45. USD/CAD Lows today 1.2828 Vs DXY lows 105.90. The 2 trades should coincide perfectly. USD/CAD exceeds DXY ranges by about 20 ish pips.
EUR/JPY big break for lower at 136.93 is a good guide for next week. Overall, short JPY cross pairs remains the strategy.
Brian Twomey
DXY traded 186 pips last week. The main problem pair within overall currency markets is USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Then the question: how are currency pairs trading against each other within the respective universe.
USD/USD traded 500 pips last week but broken down from the vital 131 point, USD/JPY traded 155 pips below and 394 pips above. USD/JPY 155 pips below was perfectly normal. USD/JPY however at 394 = DXY 2 times and EUR/USD 2.5 times. USD/JPY is trading erratic and far to high ranges in relation to DXY and EUR/USD as its main counterparts. The story grows worse to JPY cross pairs.
USD/JPY Vs JPY cross Pairs
USD/JPY at 500 pips in relation to cross pair ranges trades as: EUR/JPY 429 pips, GBP/JPY 452, AUD/JPY 327, CAD/JPY 328 and NZD/JPY 259.
EUR/JPY is clearly the problem pair and earns last ranking for the 2nd week. USD/JPY correlates to EUR/JPY at 82% and minus 62% to EUR/USD. EUR/JPY against a high USD/JPY correlation transforms itself as a USD currency to match USD in USD/JPY
. At 429 pips equates to 2.5 times EUR/USD and 2.3 times DXY but below USD/JPY
The main factor and problem to USD/JPY is trade ranges higher than JPY cross pairs. Correct is JPY cross pairs trade higher ranges than USD/JPY.
Instead, USD/JPY trades even matches to EUR/JPY as USD/JPY Vs DXY at 2.3 times and 2.5 times EUR/USD. USD/JPY is clearly the leader to JPY cross pairs and consistent to overall currency market anchor pairs.
AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY as usual were perfect in relation to ranges and big trade weeks while GBP/JPY was erratic yet consistent to EUR/JPY.
Despite today’s analysis, best trades for the future week to week will remain USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. Most consistent JPY cross pairs are CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Most volatile are EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. To understand EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is to profit much in the weeks ahead.
Watch this week EUR/JPY 136.81 and GBP/JPY 162.04.
EUR/USD’s big break is now 1.0418 and dropping. The weekly range is confined from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips Vs last week from 1.0283 to 1.0136. Same EUR/USD on a different week.
EUR/USD Cross Pairs
Last week: EUR/CHF 89 pips, EUR/USD 169, EUR/JPY 429, EUR/CAD 190, EUR/AUD 276 and EUR/NZD 216. EUR/NZD is clearly light to trade ranges and should trade the most pips overall and far above EUR/AUD. Explains up and down weeks to trade rankings.
GBP/USD range this week 1.2174 to 1.2013.
GBP Cross Pairs
GBP/CHF 151, GBP/USD 289, GBP/JPY 452, GBP/CAD 268, GBP/AUD 335, GBP/NZD 387. GBP/NZD not bad but light compared to GBP/AUD. GBP/CAD correct should trade much higher than GBP/USD.
AUD/USD big break for higher this week: 0.7001.
AUD Cross Pairs
AUD/CHF 131, AUD/USD 177, AUD/JPY 327, AUD/CAD 155, AUD/NZD 150. AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD clear drivers to AUD/CHF and AUD/USD. Watch AUD/CAD at vital 0.8986 while AUD/NZD achieves overbought and short from middle 1.1100’s.
Oversold NZD/USD must cross 0.6357 for higher.
NZD Cross Pairs
NZD/CHF 70 pips, NZD/USD 140, NZD/JPY 259, NZD/CAD 141. NZD/CAD is clearly a problem to NZD/USD and must trade higher to assist NZD/USD rises. NZD/CAD traded the exact same amount of pips as NZD/USD. NZD/CAD ranges this week: 0.8090 – 0.8019.
DXY vitals above 106.03 and 105.48. Below 105.48 targets 105.10 and the same trade as last week. Above vitals 106.52, 107.01, 107.18 and 107.39. Same DXY, different week.
GBP was the lead trade category last week and should remain the best trades this week.
Labor Force Participation Rate
At current 62% is within middle range to the 83 year history of NFP release from 60 to 65.
Brian Twomey
As written yesterday, GBP/USD highs were located at 1.2197, 1.2214 and 1.2233. GBP/USD traded perfectly to 1.2214. Lows at 1.2072 and 1.2063 traded exactly to 1.2064. Then longs dead stopped perfectly at reported range top at 1.2174.
Vital to 1.2214 and 1.2063 are perfect levels. GBP/USD knew exactly where it would trade. If GBP/USD traded in between price at an interval then the message is GBP/USD contains a hesitant price and is not certain to direction.
The larger range yesterday was 1.2174 to 1.2009. GBP/USD traded 40 pips above 1.2174. Next week’s range: 1.2181 Vs 1.2020.
GBP/JPY short strategy traded 200 pips lower. Longs next week must trade above 162.07.
DXY traded 178 pips this week while USD/CAD traded 124 pips. USD/CAD’s months long problem is short ranges to DXY. USD/CHF traded 181 pips Vs DXY 178.
SPX traded 88 pips this week, 226 last week and 188 points 2 weeks ago. SPX trades consistent to DXY 200 ish pip ranges. A free trade to longs and shorts for free money occurs when SPX trades above or below DXY ranges.
EUR/USD’s overall range this week began at 1.0283 to 1.0136. Next week: 1.0290 Vs 1.0155. EUR/USD big break for higher 1.0425. What is EUR/USD doing. Exactly nothing. The numbers may change slightly but the location remains the same week to week. Plus, EUR/USD trades consistent to ranges.
The number 00 to end an exchange rate trades but not very often. Today is unusual. GBP/USD top target today is 1.2200, AUD/USD 0.7000. USD/JPY 134.00.
USD/CAD price path today: 1.2876, 1.2884,1.2892, 1.2900, 1.2916, 1.2924, 1.2933.
GBP/JPY is an outlier currency pair and here’s today’s set up.
161.96, 162.06, 162.26, 162.36, 162.46, 162.56, 162.67
Bottom 161.45 achieves by 161.65 and 161.85
Upper target 162.67
Continuation Fail 162.26
Note ending numbers, 5, 6 and 7. GBP/JPY works on a 2 pip differential as a permanent fixture to its prices and won’t ever change.
USD/JPY traded 415 pips this week while JPY/USD traded 235 pips. JPY/USD 235 Vs DXY 178 is key to USD/JPY.
USD/JPY big break for lower next week is located at 131.55 and the larger range trades from 136.12 to 133.83 then 132.69. Ranges inform next week 131.55 holds and we range trade.
AUD/USD will trade exactly as this week: Caught between AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD. As written Sunday, AUD/USD targets higher at 0.7080’s or longs from 0.6887 to 0.6913. AUD/USD 0.7080;s traded 0.7047 then perfect to 0.6887.
NZD/USD big break for higher is found at 0.6360. NZD/USD must break minimum 0.6325 for any chance at 0.6260 but then NZD/USD trades in no man’s land and untouchable.
AUD/JPY 92.01 and NZD/JPY 83.53 for lower. Deeply oversold CAD/JPY must break 102.43.
EUR/CAD will trade next week from 1.3236 to 1.3088 while GBP/CAD trades from 1.5671 to 1.5499.
Brian Twomey
DXY achieved 106.82 highs yesterday and 106.82 was located from 106.94 to 106.52 as written Sunday. As DXY achieved weekly highs, EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD dropped. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs jumped higher from DXY 105.05 lows. DXY for the week traded its usual 177 pips and inside the 200 pip ranges.
The BOE raised 25 points June 16 and GBP traded higher on both June 15 and June 15. The RBA raised and AUD/USD dropped. The RBNZ raised July 13 and NZD/USD traded higher but dropped April 13th on the last raise. EUR/USD traded higher when the ECB raised. USD/CHF dropped om the SNB raise.
When markets shifted in 1972 from Gold and 1% Bretton Woods ranges to interest rates, nobody had a clue what to do nor how how to trade. Bid and Ask spreads to interest rates went ballistic and out of control. Interest rate dealers profited far more than their fair share and knocked market prices off kilter.
When markets finally rightsized, the moving average and interest rates to current traded markets was born and became a permanent fixture since 1972. The moving average is vital today for trades but the moving average must be correct. A chart average is not correct. Add the CMT Association to the long list of criminals and non credible traders today. What a colossal waste of time.
GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs are traded today as long when oversold and short when the price becomes overbought. The moving average informs what to do. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 162.17. GBP/JPY trades current 163.40’s. Short is the trade.
GBP/USD tops are located at 1.2197, 1.2214 and 1.2233. Lows and long are found at 1.2072 and 1.2063. GBP/USD for the past 24 hour trades, achieved 1.2128 to 1.2175 or 47 pips.
What is traded today is a tiny portion inside the larger range from 1.2174 to 1.2009. No mystery to highs at 1.2175.
Whatever the BOE decides, GBP/USD is expected to normal 50 ish pips. But this is GBP as GBP/USD maybe a middle currency pair but its assigned larger ranges than AUD/USD and EUR/USD. This explains GBP/USD’s ability to trade absolute dead or go ballistic. Its the typical skitzo nature imbedded in GBP.
For interested, see Ron Paul and Lew Lehrman a Case for Gold for a fascinating GBP history.
Brian Twomey
The RBA raised OCR by 50 points and AUD/USD dropped 56 pips or almost 1 pip per 50 points. If short from 0.6993 to current 0.6926 lows then all have + 67 pips added to accounts. If short from 0.7047 then + 121 pips added to accounts.
If AUD/USD was oversold then AUD/USD would’ve traded 56 pips higher. The market doesn’t care about Central banks nor raises or drops. The market cares deeply to an average and this drives market prices. A target price is written in Mathematical stone and only Jesus Christ has ability to change this formula.
DXY broke 105.49 and target at 105.15 traded to 105.05.
DXY this week could easily trade to next ranges from 105.00’s to 103.00’s.
Last week EUR/USD range: 1.0302 to 1.0148 or 154 pips. This week 1.0283 to 1.0136 or 147 pips. 2 Weeks ago 1.0309 to 1.0141 or 168 pips.
Overall Ranges, 168, 154, 147. EUR/USD Weekly actually traded 161 pips last week then 206 and 233 pips. EUR/USD beat its weekly ranges by 50 ish pips in 2 of the last 3 weeks. EUR/USD this week traded 9 pips above 1.0283 to 1.0292 then dropped 68 pip to current 1.0215.
What affect did interest rate changes and central bank words and deeds apply to EUR/USD? Nero effect as the market price doesn’t care.
If interest rates effect no changes to market prices, employment as the most lagging indicator available, extracts zero conversations to market prices and much less to overall monetary policy. Inflation achieved 7.5% in January and 6 months later, we’re beginning to hear about major layoffs to big companies. Employment lacks a gauge to Monetary policy.
Th market story however is found in USD/JPY break below 132.38 then trade to lows at 130.38 and almost at our 129.00’s target. Higher for USD/JPY must break 131.98. JPY cross pairs followed USD/JPY as all broke significant averages.
Higher for cross pairs must break GBP/JPY 162.32, EUR/JPY 137.31, AUD/JPY 92.18, NZD/JPY 83.68, CAD/JPY 102.68. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade deep oversold.
CHF/JPY remains the last hold out to break lower at 137.37.
USD/JPY traded 200 pips this week. The 10 Year yield traded 0.17 points and 2 year traded 0.10. The USD/JPY story was never about yields.
Brian Twomey
Last week EUR/USD 1.0302 to 1.0148 or 154 pips. This week 1.0283 to 1.0136 or 147 pips. What changed week to week, nothing. 2 Weeks ago 1.0309 to 1.0141or 168 pips.
Ranges, 168, 154, 147.
Action forex or whatever this thing is on my site was placed on site 12 and 14 years ago. I checked. Please exclude any commentary and proposed trades as they are wrong and not trusted. I don’t know how to eliminate from my site.
Please also exclude McGinley Dynamic from Investopedia as this is another whacked organization not to be trusted. If interested in the McGinley Dynamic, read exactly what I wrote as valid. I once had a massive problem with John McGinley when I wrote about his Dynamic on Investopedia.
The man is powerful and well connected. I haven’t investigated years later after my writings but I believe I stand by my words from all those years ago. John is a PHD from Harvard and put his life into that indicator. We later became friends with open discussions.
Interested in subscriptions, brian@btwomey.com. We’re trading 11 currencies per day, 20 currencies weekly, WTI daily and weekly, Brent daily and weekly and SPX, daily and weekly. XAU/USD is currently on the agenda, daily and weekly.
I’m out here to assist subscribers otherwise no reason exists to write any longer. No subscribers then I stop writing and go total private. I completely disappear.
Brian Twomey
Tianzuida ON TRADING 