Month: March 2023

EUR/USD’s target is located at 1.1048 on a break at 1.0925. Yesterday’s EUR/USD twice attempted the 1.0925 break and failed. Above 1.0925 places EUR/USD from 1.0925 to 1.1127 and within a 202 pip range. EUR/USD target at 1.1048 could travel a bit higher easily.

As written previously, targets are mathematical certainties and must achieve destinations. The EUR/USD bottom at 1.0515 at March beginning offered + 500 pips and 30 days.

The last thing we want is to watch screens all day or focus on the latest market BS as all this doesn’t apply to known targets. The EUR/USD long at March beginning allowed 30 days to live life as desired. The trades are target to target to target and never ends.

USD/JPY’s target at 121.83 holds on a break of 125.00’s. USD/JPY big break is located at 133.90 and a rising line. To add context to 121.83, USD/JPY trades massive overbought to 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 114.72, 112.29 and 104.51.

USD/JPY’s next targets are: 132.76, 127.36 and both easy targets and good trades.
From January, USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs would become 2023’s best trades. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs will remain best trades throughout 2023.

USD/JPY from the big line at 125.00’s lifted in January from 127.00’s, February from 128.00’s and March from 129.00’s. USD/JPY traded 400 pips higher to 133.00’s and now at its most vital 133.90 average.
GBP/JPY traveled 800 pips higher from its vital line at 156.00’s, EUR/JPY 800 pips from 135.00’s and 136.00’s, CAD/JPY 600 pips from 94.00’s.

USD/JPY maintains +90% correlations to its JPY cross pairs so view USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs as one giant trade. USD/JPY leads JPY cross pairs by a 700 Vs 500 pip ranges.

EUR/JPY targets are located at 141.40, 137.71, 135.76 and final at 134.83. To achieve lower targets, EUR/JPY must break 136.14 to then trade the range from 136.14 to 132.44. The line at 136.14 is a weak and fluid line as it rises and falls with EUR/JPY’s price.

USD/JPY offers a 600 pip trade to 127.00’s and EUR/JPY 400 pips to 141.00’s from 145.00’s.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD’s target at 1.3168 holds on a break of 1.3200 exactly. Note 00’s as 00’s hit frequently and its just a number. Obviously all now know our Currency analysts are incompetent idiots.
USD/CAD just broke vital 1.3583 today and targets 1.3467, 1.3328, 1.3289 and 1.3168.
As USD/CAD target at 1.3168 was reported frequently over past months, th short only strategy was essential especially when USD/CAD topped at 1.3800’s.

EUR/AUD Vs GBP/AUD

EUR/AUD Targets 1.5885, 1.5854, 1.5800 and 1.5729 on a 400 trade to 1.5800’s from 1.6200’s.
GBP/AUD’s top is located at 1.8544 and targets 1.8244, 1.8216 and caution at 1.8191 final target.

GBP/USD and NZD/USD

GBP/USD’s target at 1.2725 holds on a break of 1.2569. As this target was reported over last months, GBP/USD bottomed at 1.1900’s and 1.1800’s for January to March and traveled 600 pips higher to 1.2400’s. GBP/USD above 1.2569 places GBP/USD inside the next 300 pip range from 1.2569 to 1.2860.

NZD/USD target at 0.6577 also holds on a break of 0.6467 as the next vital break for NZD/USD. NZD/USD bottomed many times over last months at 0.6100’s.

The overall trades are short USD and long EUR, GBP, NZD and AUD. until targets reach destinations.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY traded from 130.49 to 131.75 or 126 pips then dropped 136 pips to 130.39. USD/JPY then traveled 249 pips to 132.88. USD/JPY began the week at 129.00’s vs the vital line at 125.00’s.

Overall, USD/JPY traded 300 pips and right back to the number 3 to 300 pip ranges. Broken down, USD/JPY traded 75 pips per day or 1/2 the allowable distance to a day trade. Yesterday, USD/JPY rose from 131.58 to 132.65 or 107 pips. After 10 am, USD/JPY traded 22 pips or essentially nothing.

The operable time to trade USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs is 4.15 am EST. Interested in Japanese money markets for interest rates, JGB, FX Forwards and Swaps then see the Tokyo Tanshi company.

GBP/USD since the BOE raise traded 170 pips or 34 points per day since last Thursday. For BOE, GBP/USD traded 78 pips down and 70 pips up for a difference of 8 pips. What does the raise mean, a difference of 8 pips and no meaning works as GBP/USD landed in the same place where it started.

Meanwhile on BOE Day, USD/JPY traded 135 pips, GBP/JPY 192 pips, EUR/USD 106 pips, EUR/JPY 135 pips to match USD/JPY for a double trade. GBP/USD was not the focus for BOE day.

USD/JPY’s big line for higher exists at 133.80. The only point located at the topside is 133.18. Any price above 132.72 is good to go for shorts to target 131.32 easily. The overall bottom target for the next 24 hours to cover Friday is 130.65. Next longer term targets 128.96 and 127.33.

Note 133.18 to today’s traded prices: 132.59, 132.67, 132.75, 132.84, 133.01, 133.09, 133.18. The Statistics are perfect;y accurate and perfect to the central banks especially the BOJ.

Bottoms: 131.84, 131.92, 132.00, 132.17, 132.41.

The long term view seen in USD/JPY is from 104.00’s to 144.00’s.

GBP/JPY any price above 161.99 is also good to go for shorts and targets the same old levels at 159.06, 158.60 and 157.25. Watch for the break at 161.84.

DXY broke below vital 102.94 to trade lows at 102.36. DXY next week will struggle to trade 103.00’s and good for USD/JPY, JPY cross pairs and USD shorts.

Overall DXY traded 81 pips this week and forces 50 pip trade days for EUR/USD and GBP/USD while holding up downside progress to wide rangers EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.

AUD/USD awaits for the break at 0.6720 to move higher. AUD is a dead issue due to DXY’s non movements.

NZD/USD holds steady above vital 0.6210. The next line above is located at 0.6261.

GBP/USD trades massive overbought and targets lower to high 1.2100’s and above vital 1.2103.
EUR/USD also trades overbought and in no threat to upside momentum above 1.0636. Next break to target 1.1048 is located 1.0922. EUR/USD is currently 60 pips from the 1.0922 level.

EM

USD/PLN’s big line break at 4.4265 will struggle to break as DXY is on a trend lower however slowly.
Below 4.4265 long term targets 4.2988, 4.2147 and 4.1423.

USD currencies as USD/EM are all located in the same position as USD/PLN as all are traveling miles lower from current levels.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 132.51

Most Important 131.92 and 132.41 Vs 132.59, 132.67, 132.75, 132.84, 133.01, 133.09, 133.18

Bottom 131.84 achieves by 132.00 and 132.17

Upper Target 133.18

Continuation Fail 132.84

Vital lines 131.84 and 132.00 Vs 132.67, 132.84 and 133.18. My line 133.80

We’re dealing with 67 pips or 134 pips. Expect 67 pip trade day if its a good day.

Trades are good to 10:am EST. BOJ 45 minutes and I’ll post a few trades.

Brian Twomey

I went back and performed correct due diligence as I performed a rookie mistake. Actual BOJ top today for USD/JPY was 132.94 and USD/JPY traded to 132.75. My top for today’s trade was 132.54. I am perfectly on track with the BOJ and seems to run a 20 ish pip discrepancy.

The discrepancy is answered by JPY trade time begins at 4:15 am EST and runs to 10:00 am. Do yourself a favor. Nothing exists to trade after 10 am.

The big line break for higher is now located at 133.82 and BOJ 133.88. How perfect is this. The big line to break below is 132.01 for Thursday. I’m looking at a short term target at 131.36. Overall bottom is right around 130.12, BOJ has 129.90.

The target for miles lower than 129.90 remains as the 125.00 line holds since December.

I will post trades for USD/JPY and a few JPY cross pairs as GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Market data for the Tokyo Tanshi company with pictures to show how the Japanese market operates. Tokyo Tanshi are the leaders to Japan money markets

https://www.tokyotanshi.co.jp/en/market_data/

Brian Twomey

Forgot to add, USD/JPY bottom 129.90 as of this day.

Brian Twomey

From 131.75 highs, USD/JPY bottom at 130.10 traded to 130.39. Off 29 by the ECB and 17 by the BOJ. The BOJ called the next top perfectly at 132.01 as USD/JPY traded today to 132.08.

The BOJ top is located at 133.88 and perfect to my system The final target and bottom at 121.00’s on a break at 125.00, the BOJ is consistent to this point in time at 123.00’s.

Note 132.00 for today : 131.96, 132.04, 132.12, 132.21, 132.37, 132.45, 132.54. The second number in the upward price path is an important number and must pay close attention. Remember GBP/USD and BOE as GBP/USD topped at the 2md number.

Today’s bottoms: 131.22 achieves by 131.38 and 131.55. The required break for the BOJ is 131.74 while I have 131.88.

The overall central bank trade system works as seen from 28 trades. The BOJ for USD/JPY top was off by 13 pips and bottom off by 17. The ECB top from 131.29 was off by 46 pips and bottom off by 29. I like the BOJ due to consistency but also because the BOJ calculations are quick and easy.

The USD/JPY top at 132.00 was due from a change in interest rates from Sunday. The ECB’s interest rates changed drastically from Sunday as well while the FED remained dead as normal dead without changes.

My original estimation was Sunday’s trades were weeklies. Interest rates obviously can’t hold consistent this long especially Japanese interest rates. What we have is about a 2 day trade but target to target from top to bottom and bottom to top.

The 28 trades were factored from last Friday and held for Monday and Tuesday. To understand fully without speculation and for consistent profits, I must factor USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs everyday to more understand what the BOJ is doing to USD/JPY changes. What changed was 0.006.

Brian Twomey

In the EM trade category, only a few currencies are worth the effort and move far and wide in the following: BGN, DKK as USD/DKK, HUF, PLN, RON and MYR.

MYR is no giant mover but earns a place on the list due to its relationship to RON as both trade the same numbered exchange rates as 4.00 vs USD and EUR. Its an important relationship as MYR and RON are great double trades.

USD/PLN is overbought and operates on a short only trade strategy as the only way forward on a long term basis. The same would hold true for remaining EM currencies as a check on one applies to all. The only question is the levels to target. The same also applies to G28 currencies as USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF although only USD/JPY is worth the trade effort. All trade as USD and DXY.

USD/PLN’s main averages are 4.2592, 4.0901, 3.9541 and 3.8325. Higher must break 4.4330.

Targets: 4.4250, 4.2988, 4.2147 and final at 4.1423.

From current 4.3282, USD/PLN targets easily 4.3449.

Brian Twomey

A check to weekly trades. EM currencies yesterday all traded a commonality of 200 pips. GBP/AUD, USD/HUF, EUR/AUD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY all hit intended targets perfectly. A few others as well and highlighted below. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs missed yet the miss was in our favor as shorts entered higher than expected.

What’s definitive is the following statements: Interest rates = exchange rates and exchange rates = interest rates. Interest rates -= Statistics. Exchange rates = Statistics. But very few formulas work. Very few central banks allow longer term forecast to exchange rates. Most are perfectly in line with the Fed to only allow a few pips profit for day trades.

The BOJ from the gang that can’t shoot straight forecasted USD/JPY’s near perfect top and off by 13 pips but the same prediction was exactly matched by Statistics. The difference is USD/JPY’s top was known Friday at the close of Japanese markets as was the same forecasts for JPY cross pairs.

Currency trading and other financial market instruments is all about formulas written in stone many, many decades ago. And never to change. The only requirement is a $4 calculator and the profits are guaranteed.
Beside USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs, the forecasts weren’t terrible.

After this day, back to the normal profit routine.

Following is the list to Sunday forecasts then actual traded ranges as of this point.

GBP/AUD 1.8476 – 1.8308. Actual 1.8480 – 1.8368. Close enough to perfect.
EUR/AUD 1.6259 – 1.6111. Actual 1.6255 – 1.6147. Close enough to perfect.

AUD/USD 0.6672 – 0.6611. Actual 0.6693 – 0.6633. Top off by 21
NZD/USD 0.6226 – 0.6199. Actual 0.6237 – 0.6180. Close enough to perfect.

EUR/USD 1.0807 – 1.0708. Actual 1.0833 – 1.0744.
USD/JPY 131.29 – 130.10. Actual 131.74 – 130.48. Off

GBP/CAD 1.6876 – 1.6723. Actual 1.6839 – 1.6763. Top off by 37, bottom 40 pips to target
GBP/USD 1.2286 – 1.2172. Actual 1.2329 – 1.2218. top off by 43

GBP/NZD 1.9789 – 1.9609. Actual 1.9854 – 1.9676.top off by 65
EUR/NZD 1.7419 – 1.7260. Actual 1.7428 – 1.7409. Top off by 11

EUR/JPY 141.19 – 139.90. Actual 142.21 – 140.52. Top off 100
AUD/JPY 87.16 – 86.37. Actual 87.77 – 86.61

EUR/CAD 1.4845 – 1.4710. Actual 1.4801 – 1.4733, top off by 44
EUR/GBP 0.8826 – 0.8745. Actual 0.8805 – 0.8770

USD/CAD 1.3800 – 1.3675. Actual 1.3744 -1.3630, top off 56, Bottom target achieved
USD/CHF 0.9234 – 0.9150. Actual 0.9199 – 0.9136, top of 35, bottom off 14

CAD/JPY 95.47 – 94.60. Actual 96.48 – 94.94
NZD/JPY 81.39 – 80.65. Actual 81.80 – 80.87

EM

USD/PLN 4.3777 – 4.3379. Actual 4.3623 – 4.3208. Top off by 154, Bottom perfect + extra pips
USD/SGD 1.3381 – 1.3259. Actual 1.3351 – 1.3277. Top off by 30, bottom off by 18.

USD/CNY 6.8995 – 6.8367. Actual 6.8909 – 6.8729. Top Close enough to Perfect
USD/RON 4.6018 – 4.5600. Actual 4.5952 – 4.5633. Top off by 66, Bottom off by 33

USD/DKK 6.9573 – 6.8940. Actual 6.9352 – 6.8773. Top off by 221, Bottom target achieved + extra.
USD/HUF 359.11 – 355.85. Actual 359.38– 354.24. Top off by 27, bottom target achieved + extra.

USD/MYR 4.4482 – 4.4078. Actual 4.4345 – 4.3850, Top off by 37, bottom target achieved + extra

USD/CZK 22.1042 – 21.9031. Actual 22.1005 – 21.9210, Top off by 37,

Brian Twomey

A check up for the new methods: USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs were off. EM currencies all traded about 200 pips. GBP/AUD and USD/HUF hit perfectly. As in all methods, absolute perfection is sought.

GBP/AUD 1.8476 – 1.8308. Actual 1.8476 – 1.8368

EUR/AUD 1.6259 – 1.6111. Actual 1.6254 – 1.6147

AUD/USD 0.6672 – 0.6611. Actual 0.66 4 – 0.6633

NZD/USD 0.6226 – 0.6199. Actual 0.6211 – 0.6180

EUR/USD 1.0807 – 1.0708. Actual 1.0794 – 1.0744

USD/JPY 131.29 – 130.10. Actual 131.74 – 130.48

GBP/CAD 1.6876 – 1.6723. Actual 1.6839 – 1.6778

GBP/USD 1.2286 – 1.2172. Actual 1.2281 – 1.2272. What’s happening here

GBP/NZD 1.9789 – 1.9609. Actual 1.9840 – 1.9818

EUR/NZD 1.7419 – 1.7260. Actual 1.7428 – 1.7409

EUR/JPY 141.19 – 139.90. Actual 141.96 – 141.75

USD/JPY 131.29 – 130.10. Actual 131.60 – 131.45

GBP/JPY 160.52 – 159.06. Actual 161.70 – 161.36

AUD/JPY 87.16 – 86.37. Actual 87.50 – 87.40

EUR/CAD 1.4845 – 1.4710. Actual 1.4775 – 1.4764

EUR/GBP 0.8826 – 0.8745. Actual 0.8786 – 0.8770

USD/CAD 1.3800 – 1.3675. Actual 1.3700 -1.3687

Dull trade day today

USD/CHF 0.9234 – 0.9150. Actual 0.9167 – 0.9158

CAD/JPY 95.47 – 94.60. Actual 96.13 – 95.95

NZD/JPY 81.39 – 80.65. Actual 81.45 – 81.36

EM

USD/PLN 4.3777 – 4.3379. Actual 4.3600 – 4.3386

USD/SGD 1.3381 – 1.3259. Actual 1.3349 – 1.3317

USD/CNY 6.8995 – 6.8367. Actual 6.8907 – 6.8680. Close enough to Perfect

USD/RON 4.6018 – 4.5600. Actual 4.5938 – 4.5725

USD/DKK 6.9573 – 6.8940. Actual 6.9346 – 6.9028

USD/HUF 359.11 – 355.85. Actual 359.30 – 355.79

USD/MYR 4.4482 – 4.4078. Actual 4.4335 – 4.4210

USD/CZK 22.1042 – 21.9031. Actual 22.0950 – 21.9370

Brian Twomey

The scenario: BOE day and expected raise from some strange market called swaps that nobody knows or understands. Its the only day to hear about swaps. All previous and future days must not matter. All eyes on GBP/USD because today is a big score for profit day. Correct? Wrong kemosabe unless its one of these dumbo currency analysts doing their utmost job to lead the world of traders to ruin.

GBP/USD traded 70 pips up and 78 down and remained at the same place where it started. For BOE day, GBP/USD traded a total of 83 pips. For the day, nothing happened and GBP failed to gain traction in any one direction.

Lets look at not trading GBP/USD for BOE day. USD/JPY traded 135 pips, GBP/JPY 192 pips, EUR/USD 106 pips, EUR/JPY 135 pips to match USD/JPY for a double trade.

What does the raise mean. It means GBP/USD traded 83 pips, remained in the same place and no meaning exists to raise. Don’t stretch the imagination to levels of stupidity as 62 pips for GBP/USD remains the same exact number as before and after BOE. Now that BOE is over, not another word written. Doesn’t appear very important.

Easy set up to the interest rate system is far from the truth as easily 10 steps are involved and all crucial to trade correctly. Much had to revisit.

USD/JPY today at 131.29 traded to 131.36 then 52 pips lower to 130.84. DXY traded to 102.99 lows or 5 pip above crucial 102.94. USD/JPY was derived from the BOJ at exactly 130.83.

Imagine all set the platforms Sunday to short 131.29 then walked away. Its not imagined, its real.

Correct commentary should say, USD/JPY traded to EUR/USD 1.0299

USD/JPY now trades 131.40 and another round of shorts lies ahead. USD/JPY’s big line for the week is found at 131.89.

USD/JPY today. Good to 10 am EST.

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 131.27

Most Important 130.77 and 131.18 Vs 131.35, 131.43, 131.51, 131.60, 131.76, 131.84, 131.93

Bottom 130.61 achieves by 130.77 and 130.94

Upper Target 131.93

Continuation Fail 131.60

See 131.35.

Brian Twomey

In the EUR/USD bottom at 0.9500’s and Vs DXY’s top at 114.00’s, current EUR/USD bottom is located at 1.0294 and DXY top at 107.80. Both DXY and EUR/USD trade within the context of 1.0294 to 1.0780 or 500 pips. The mid point and cross over occurs at 1.0500;s. EUR/USD managed to trade above for many weeks while DXY traded below.

DXY for the week becomes overbought at 104.00’s and further up at 105.00’s. The DXY statement is the same as saying DXY tops at 104.00’s and 105.00’s collides against EUR/USD Bottoms. DXY must break 102.94 to travel lower by a break at EUR/USD 1.0294 bottom.

DXY built averages 100 pips above the current price over many weeks because EUR/USD built supports below its current price. The process week to week has been extremely slow because EUR/USD and DXY only contain a 400 – 500 pip separation as opposed to 2000 pips when DXY achieved 114.00’s and EUR/USD at 0.9500’s.

Higher for EUR/USD must break DXY 1.0780 to target the break at 1.0900’s and final target at 1.1044.

The DXY and EUR/USD relationship should trade easily at least a 1000 pips distance but averages are locking prices to trade small ranges. The FX leader as DXY or EUR/USD is a 50 /50 proposition as both are the same currency pair under opposite arrangements, opposite continents, opposite financial systems and opposite interest rates. DXY or EUR/USD contains easy ability to become currency market leaders.
Over many past weeks, the DXY and EUR/USD relationship is range range. The overall DXY Vs EUR/USD relationship is range range and designed for market trading decades ago.

Currency markets are defined and trade as EUR/USD and DXY due to perfect opposite arrangements. The term DXY is replaced with USD to cover all currencies to include EM as USD/Other currency. EUR is defined as opposite and arranged as Other Currency/ USD.

Once DXY and EUR/USD is known then every currency and every financial instrument is established and ready to trade.

Take USD/PLN for example as this paradigm is representative for most EM currencies. USD/PLN begins its trade day at 219 and maximum 438 pips. USD/PLN at 219 pips trades DXY X 4 or EUR/USD X 4. No difference to trade DXY Vs USD/PLN or EUR/USD Vs USD/PLN.

USD/PLN traded 1509 pips last week, DXY 204 and EUR/USD 299. USD/PLN actually range trades 9 pips to DXY and 5 pips to EUR/USD. Weekly USD/PLN traded DXY X 7 and EUR/USD X 5 and the same daily set up only expanded for weekly trades.

EUR/USD Vs DXY Trades and Weekly Ranges

EUR/USD 1.0807 – 1.0708 Vs DXY 103.58 – 102.63.

EUR/USD 1.0807 = DXY 102.63 Vs EUR/USD Bottom 1.0708 = DXY 103.58.

USD/JPY Vs DXY Vs EUR/USD

USD/JPY 131.29 – 130.10. USD/JPY 131.29 = DXY 103.58. USD/JPY 131.29 = EUR/USD 1.0708.

USD/JPY 130.10 = DXY 102.63. USD/JPY 130.10 = EUR/USD 1.0807.

Ranges are exact and perfect so only prone to a few pip miss if any. My slight miss is extra free money pips. If EUR/USD trades above 1.0807 to 1.0815 then add 8 free money pips to accounts.

Included in the following list is EM as USD/Other Currency because EUR as EM is non uniform to longs and shorts while USD as EM is deeply oversold and constant to all currencies.

SPX and DAX was included. Our weekly trades contain an expansion to weekly ranges and targets.
Short highs and long bottoms. Match EUR/USD and DXY tops and bottoms for remaining currency trades as well as stock markets.

GBP/AUD 1.8476 – 1.8308

EUR/AUD 1.6259 – 1.6111

AUD/USD 0.6672 – 0.6611

NZD/USD 0.6226 – 0.6199

GBP/CAD 1.6876 – 1.6723

GBP/USD 1.2286 – 1.2172

GBP/NZD 1.9789 – 1.9609

EUR/NZD 1.7419 – 1.7260

EUR/JPY 141.19 – 139.90

USD/JPY 131.29 – 130.10

GBP/JPY 160.52 – 159.06

AUD/JPY 87.16 – 86.37

EUR/CAD 1.4845 – 1.4710

EUR/GBP 0.8826 – 0.8745

USD/CAD 1.3800 – 1.3675

USD/CHF 0.9234 – 0.9150

CAD/JPY 95.47 – 94.60

NZD/JPY 81.39 – 80.65

EM

USD/PLN 4.3777 – 4.3379

USD/SGD 1.3381 – 1.3259

USD/CNY 6.8995 – 6.8367

USD/RON 4.6018 – 4.5600

USD/DKK 6.9573 – 6.8940

USD/HUF 359.11 – 355.85

USD/MYR 4.4482 – 4.4078

USD/CZK 22.1042 – 21.9031

Stock Markets

SPX 3989.17 – 3952.88

DAX 15025.73 – 14889.03

Brian Twomey

Short highs and long bottoms. Match EUR/USD and DXY tops and bottoms for remaining currency trades as well as stock markets.

EUR/USD 1.0807 – 1.0708.

DXY 103.58 – 102.63

EUR/USD 1.0807 Vs DXY 102.63.

EUR/USD 1.0708 Vs DXY 103.58.

GBP/AUD 1.8476 – 1.8308

EUR/AUD 1.6259 – 1.6111

AUD/USD 0.6672 – 0.6611

NZD/USD 0.6226 – 0.6199

GBP/CAD 1.6876 – 1.6723

GBP/USD 1.2286 – 1.2172

GBP/NZD 1.9789 – 1.9609

EUR/NZD 1.7419 – 1.7260

EUR/JPY 141.19 – 139.90

USD/JPY 131.29 – 130.10

GBP/JPY 160.52 – 159.06

AUD/JPY 87.16 – 86.37

EUR/CAD 1.4845 – 1.4710

EUR/GBP 0.8826 – 0.8745

USD/CAD 1.3800 – 1.3675

USD/CHF 0.9234 – 0.9150

CAD/JPY 95.47 – 94.60

NZD/JPY 81.39 – 80.65

EM

USD/PLN 4.3777 – 4.3379

USD/SGD 1.3381 – 1.3259

USD/CNY 6.8995 – 6.8367

USD/RON 4.6018 – 4.5600

USD/DKK 6.9573 – 6.8940

USD/HUF 359.11 – 355.85

USD/MYR 4.4482 – 4.4078

USD/CZK 22.1042 – 21.9031

Stock Markets

SPX 3989.17 – 3952.88

DAX 15025.73 – 14889.03

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2331

Most Important 1.2300 and 1.2321 Vs 1.2338, 1.2346, 1.2354, 1.2362, 1.2377, 1.2385, 1.2393

Bottom 1.2269 achieves by 1.2284 and 1.2300

Upper Target 1.2393

Continuation fail 1.2362

Yesterday’s 7 hour trade for the BOE, ranged for the 7 1/2 hour time frame from 1.2342 to 1.2264 or 78 pips. Then from the 1.2269 bottom to 1.2337 for 70 pips.

GBP/USD to yesterday’s range is defined as 62 or 62 X 2 = 124 pips.

GBP/USD from yesterday’s 1.2269 bottom broke above 1.2331 to 1.2338.

Note the possibility to the full range from 1.2393 to 1.2269. From a possible 124 pips, GBP/USD traded 78 down and 70 pips up. View both within the context of 62 pips.

GBP/USD traded yesterday within the context of the required range. The BOE and rate hike or no rate hike was meaningless. GBP/USD would’ve traded 62 pips regardless of BOE.

The main point where these traders fail in analysis is this” Central bank rate hike or nor raise and economic announcements are priced into the daily range. All information to the daily range is known miles in advance.

GBP/USD in essence contains a known daily price path and inside the price path all market information is known in advance.

Now we come to today’s GBP/USD trade

GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2276

Most Important 1.2221 and 1.2267 Vs 1.2283, 1.2291, 1.2299, 1.2307, 1.2322, 1.2330, 1.2338

Bottom 1.2214 achieves by 1.2229 and 1.2245

Upper Target 1.2338

Continuation Fail 1.2307

Today 1.2214 to 1.2338 Vs yesterday 1.2269 to 1.2338.

The price trades up the interest rate curve then down the same interest rate curve. This allows for multiple longs and shorts. GBP/USD might be 62 and 124 pips but longs and shorts allow for profit far higher than 62 and 124. And this is one currency and on one day.

Brian Twomey

The words to easy interest rate set up is ridiculously wrong as the set up takes something like 10 very tough steps. Do I want to write such a complicated endeavor. No I don’t especially in today’s world of chart traders. The laugh to all this is nobody would use it as the explanations to how and why it works would bore today’s people to a comatose state. But not to Mr. Moorad’s crowd of extremely intelligent market people and bankers.

And what does this all do for me. Not a thing. Views are through the roof but subscribers are extremely low to practically nothing. I could hit a million trades for 100 million pips and the results are the same. Which is probably saying my time is drawing close to quitting time.

See this guy Ian Coleman promoted as premium man at fxstreet. Something is radically wrong with FXstreet as they have every ability to shoot themselves in the foot at every turn.

EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0923

Most Important 1.0896 and 1.0914 Vs 1.0929, 1.0936, 1.0943, 1.0950, 1.0964, 1.0971, 1.0978

Bottom 1.0868 achieves by 1.0881 and 1.0895

Upper Target 1.0978

Continuation Fail 1.0950

SPX 500 must trade minimum 19.69 daily points. VIX must trade minimum 0.11 points. WTI 0.36 minimum. XAU/USD must trade minimum 9.9 points. Take minimums X 2 and we have dull markets and required precision to profit.

Brian Twomey

Since February and March as written, EUR/USD targets 1.1048 on a break of 1.0913. EUR/USD for yesterday’s Fed day traded to 1.0911. As usual, the currency price brought us to the brink. Most important to 1.1048, EUR/USD bottomed in March at 1.0500’s on a known target at 1.1048. Traders are running with +500 pips and much more to go.

EUR/USD’s actual range from today’s assessment is located at 1.0917 to 1.1125 then 1.1374 and new target at 1.1044. EUR/USD trades deeply overbought. Good short point for next week is located anywhere in the high 1.0900’s. Bottoms remain at 1.0500’s and 1.0400;s. Short term range is found at 1.0599 to 1.0917 and EUR/USD averages are rising and good sign to further moves higher.

Tuesday EUR/USD traded to 1.0788 while DXY achieved lows at 102.99. And this from the Sunday weekly, EUR/USD ranges this week from 1.0546 to 1.0783 while DXY trades from 1.0500 to 1.0272. EUR/USD achieved a top at the same time DXY traded to lows as forecasted.

EUR/USD Vs EUR/AUD correlations now run +86% from 75% last week. From Sunday, maximum top at +78% and +87%. Correlations next could push a bit higher to maximum Correlation tops at 97% and 98%. The drop over time targets 32%. A correlation at 32% target informs a deep change is ahead for the EUR/USD and EUR/AUD relationship. Next week trades more of the same and short EUR/AUD tops.

EUR/AUD targets as follows: 1.5845, 1.5832, 1.5780, 1.5712 final. Next week’s shorts at 1.6232 and 1.6248 targets easily 1.6001.

AUD/USD broke 0.6732 and traded to 0.6758 highs. Last week’s target was 0.6750 on a break at 0.6732. AUD/USD next week 0.6736 decides AUD/USD longs and shorts.

DXY next week trades 101.00’s to low 104.00’s. Don’t lose sight to DXY at 50 year averages at 99.00’s as DXY and USD currencies contain a long way to travel lower.

DXY overall is building averages above the price at every 100 pips. As DXY and USD currencies continue drops, more averages build above the price.

USD/JPY tops written for this week was 133.18 while USD/JPY traded to 132.99 highs. Any price above 132.90 is good to go for shorts to target 129.05 and 127.41. USD/JPY averages are dropping extremely fast as the 122.00 targets is now 121.83 on a break of 125.00’s.

USD/JPY for next week currently trades oversold. USD/JPY is the far better trade than USD/CHF and USD/CAD. Both USD/CHF and USD/CAD melded into the same exact currency pair as ranges faltered to nothing. To trade USD/CAD is the same as trading USD/CHF. And why bother when USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs are running wide ranges with terrific profit potential.

GBP/JPY top is located at 162.02 and achieves higher status on a break at 161.88. GBP/JPY targets 159.09, 158.61 and 157.24 on a short only strategy.

EUR/JPY shorts next week at low 143.00’s to target 142.40 with focus on the break at 142.26 to target longer term at 141.28, 137.59 and 135.66.

GBP/USD last week to long term targets: GBP/USD long term targets are located at 1.2166, 1.2287, 1.2347 and 1.2408. GBP/USD traded to 1.2342 highss and directly to the brink.

GBP/USD began last week deeply overbought as well as GBP cross pairs GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD while fairly neutral to GBP/NZD. Next week overbought is attributed to GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

GBP strategy for next week is short across the GBP board.

The 2 year yield traded this week from 3.63 to 4.25 or 0.62. This range was here as written last week 4.10, 3.99, 3.60.

USD/BRl trade of the week was a breeze. USD/BRL from severely overbought 5.2799 to target 5.2459. USD/BRL traded to 5.2042 lows and an additional 400 pips.

SGD/MYR was also posted to short at 3.3500’s to target 3.3200s and targets complete.

Brian Twomey

The purpose for today is parity curves and one day the intention to write this most fascinating and definitive way to trade perfectly by interest rates. Most importantly is by very simple math to how and why interest rate trades work so perfectly for day trades and longer term views. My perspective is this is original work and never revealed or written in the literature.

To construct the required system to trade takes minutes and once set then the only prerequisite is enter the proper number.. All are trading by moving averages yet not from a yield curve but interest rates and interest rate curves.

No difference exists to interest rates for day trades from the Fed, RBA, RBNZ, BOC, ECB. All offer the exact same trades and all are perfect. Missing is the BOE and Sonia rates but no difference exists to GBP/USD from central bank to central bank as all report the same exact trades. Sonia is vital only to traders of Sonia. The BOE redesigned their website and I can’t find daily Sonia rates but I also didn’t search very hard nor did I write the BOE.

The elimination of Libor offered a massive wholesale change to interest rates as all the central banks melded all interest rates to reveal the exact same interest rates to trades. The numbers are different but the trade remains the same. A time once existed when each nation’s interest rates required entry as each currency was massively different to daily ranges. Today, its all the same.

The BOJ is the anomaly as negative interest rates must convert to positive rates by 1+ interest rate. The BOJ only offers 3 daily numbers and not enough information for day trades except to offer 1 support point below and 1 resistance point above. But not enough for a full day trade’s price path. Required is enter the 3 daily numbers along with Tibor and Japanese Yield rates.

Yet the BOJ is not required for USD/JPY trades as any central bank will offer the same daily trade by entering the proper number.

The BOJ and ECB are the only central banks to offer longer term range views. No difference exists to longer term views. USD/JPY for example offers from the BOJ as 122.46, 127.81, 129.42, 133.40 and extremes at 140.88. The ECB reveals 129.48 and 133.34. The BOJ and 3 numbers are far better at long term views than the ECB.

EUR/USD from the BOJ factors as 1.0434, 1.0557, 1.0870, 1.1005. From the ECB, EUR/USD factors as 1.0550 and 1.0865.

All roads lead back to USD/JPY 131.40 and EUR/USD 1.0707. AUD/USD factors as 0.6583 to 0.6779, NZD/USD 0.6297 to 0.6115. GBP/USD 1.2430 to 1.2070.

Daily interest rates must change day to day to allow accuracy.

Today’s EUR/USD and USD/JPY and the proper set up.

EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0707

Most Important 1.0680 and 1.0699 Vs 1.0713, 1.0720, 1.0727, 1.0734, 1.0747, 1.0754, 1.0761

Bottom 1.0653 achieves by 1.0667 and 1.0680

Upper Target 1.0761

Continuation Fail 1.0734

Every number today is perfectly accounted.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 131.40

Most Important 131.07 and 131.30 Vs 131.48, 131.56, 131.64, 131.73, 131.89, 131.97, 132.06

Bottom 130.74 achieves by 130.90 and 131.07

Upper Target 132.06

Continuation Fail 131.73

I realize all are not supposed to understand this stuff nor are any interested in doing work apart from a chart.

Brian Twomey

Tops for EUR/JPY are found at 141.35 and a big line break at 142.44. EUR/JPY is held below by 136.01, 132.35 then 130.00’s.

Targets from 141.35, next at 137.63, 135.68 and 134.77. To achieve 134.77, the average at 136.01 must break.

Recall GBP/JPY at 156.00’s big line break, CAD/JPY 94.70 and USD/JPY 125.00’s. If GBP/JPY breaks 156.00’s then JPY cross pairs travel much lower.

The driving force is DXY above the 50 year average at 99.00’s. DXY cannot hold above 50 year averages. This concept to markets just doesn’t exist except on rare trade days.

EUR/JPY trades at high extremes. Check this out.

Noise Ratio 207.6146 Vs the Coefficient of Variation 0.4817. A higher EUR/JPY sends the extreme noise ratio higher and lowers the variation. EUR/JPY doesn’t have a choice except to trade lower and to normalize at 137.00’s to 136.00’s.

Taken further, the 5, 10 and 14 year averages are overbought from 129.75, 128.79 and 125.00.

Brian Twomey

Most vital to currency markets this week is deeply oversold USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. Then the question to which JPY cross pairs for longs. GBP/JPY as JPY cross pair leader assumes leadership roles to correlate to USD/JPY at +96% and – 93% to GBP/USD. CAD/JPY is next as correlations to USD/JPY run +93% and +77% to AUD/JPY.

EUR/JPY is the problem currency this week as correlations run a solid +82% to EUR/USD and +23% to USD/JPY. EUR/JPY will trade this week as a distant follower to GBP/JPY.

EUR/USD vs EUR/AUD correlations strengthened this week from +69% to +75%. The EUR/USD Vs EUR/AUD relationship at 75% is at maximum top at +78% and +87%. The correlation will begin a slow breakdown as seen from tops and ranges.

EUR/USD traded 200 pips to EUR/AUD at 500 in a strong 2 Vs 5 relationship. Last week, EUR/USD traded 244 pips Vs EUR/AUD at 356. AUD/USD and AUD/EUR suffered as correlations now run -49% to EUR/AUD. AUD/USD traded 144 pips last week and AUD/EUR at 141 pips.

AUD/USD big break this week is located at 0.6732 to target easily 0.6750 then 0.6769 and on the way to 0.6800’s. Correlations damaged AUD/USD’s ability to break 0.6732 as EUR/USD trades above 1.0562, GBP/USD above 1.2015 and NZD/USD above 0.6209. AUD/USD is the last currency yet to break.

The ECB raised the Refinance rate or the rate banks pay to borrow from the ECB. Here is where the opposite effects are seen from the FED and ECB. The ECB raised at a time when the FED is either on hold, pause or a top is in place to additional Fed raises. Recall the December post to Fed Funds from 26 to 31 year monthly averages: The overall range is located from 1.69 to 6.95 and 6.98. The 70% Confidence interval is located at 5.65 and 7.85 at the 90% mark.

Despite Fed and ECB raises, the EUR/USD hasn’t adjusted to daily movements nor will it change in the future. The EUR/USD and all currencies are situated as permanent to daily moves. The ECB’s Euribor rate moved 11 points or 0.11 from the ECB’s raise and the best performer among Euribor rates Euribor 0.11 isn’t moving the EUR/USD anywhere nor will a raise to infinity and beyond as central banks garnered full control to interest rate markets.

The Week

DXY Vs EUR/USD

DXY achieved oversold Wednesday at 103.44 and traveled 166 pips to overbought at 105.10 while overbought EUR/USD at 1.0759 traded 244 pips lower to 1.0515. EUR/USD lows traded perfectly to DXY tops as both are the same exact currency only arranged as perfect opposites. Both are not only currency market leaders but dictators to all market prices to stock indices, Gold, Metals, Oil, bonds and yields. DXY and EUR/USD run with a degree of separation from 200 to 400 ish pips.

DXY this week must break 104.00’s to trade to overbought 105.00’s while EUR/USD must trade below 1.0562 to trade to oversold bottoms at 1.0400’s.

The new ECB interest rate curve informs EUR/USD ranges this week from 1.0546 to 1.0783 while the Fed advises DXY trades from 1.0500 to 1.0272. EUR/USD opens Sunday from 1.0669 to 1.0656 or 13 pips Vs DXY 103.92 to 103.79 or the same 13 pips.

GBP/USD begins the week massive overbought and matches overbought to cross pairs GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD. GBP/NZD opens the week fairly oversold against a top at low 1.9500’s.

GBP/USD long term targets are located at 1.2166, 1.2287, 1.2347 and 1.2408.

Deeply oversold GBP/JPY bottoms at 156.51 and tops are located at 162.01 and 162.12. Targets are located at high 161.00’s.

USD/JPY tops are located at 133.18 then the next break line at 134.91. USD/JPY averages are not only dropping but longs this week due to oversold represent a slight correction. Next target below are found at 129.23, 127.25 and 126.28. As DXY trades lower, USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs will follow.

Overbought USD/CAD matches to deeply oversold CAD/JPY and fairly neutral to CAD/CHF.

WTI ranges from 62.00’s to 82.00’s over the next trading weeks. WTI broke vital 76.00’s and 77.00’s to trade to 65.00’s. Previous 76.00’s and 77.00’s are today’s 71.00’s and 73.00 and required to break higher to target 80.00’s easily.

To the 2 year yield, nothing special happening here. Low 4.00’s must break to target 5.21. As dictators to market prices, both DXY and EUR/USD informs the 2 year yield will range from 4.88, 4.10, 3.99, 3.60 2.77, and 2.70. The 2 year yield trades 2 points above DXY and EUR/USD.

EM

Trade of the week is clearly short USD/BRL from severely overbought 5.2799 to target 5.2459. EM as EUR and USD trade fairly neutral and not much happening.

Brian Twomey

Correct averages from Fix prices. Averages is the gateway to many important math formulas to trade profitably such as Regression, Z and T scores, Correlation, exchange rate crossovers, Kurtosis. Averages allow for proper placement of stops and hedges for those that use such methods. But just as easy to view price in relation to averages to determine overbought and oversold levels.

I’ve been checking on JPY correlations this weekend because USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs are deeply oversold and I wanted to know if USD/JPY was correlated to JPY cross pairs for long trades.

Very simple to enter each of the main 7 averages from the 5 day to 253 to obtain a correlation. The correlation is correct provided the proper averages are used. The math professor at vassarstats Dot net not only has the best calculators but offers great tutorials for interested.

EUR/USD

5 day =1.0650

10 = 1.0622

20 – 1.0623

50 = 1.0696

100 = 1.0689

200 = 1.0350

253 = 1.0308.

EUR/JPY

5 day = 141.25

10 = 142.74,

20 = 143.52

50 = 142.65

100 = 142.11

200 = 142.81

253 = 141.76

GBP/USD

5 day = 1.2127

10 = 1.2038

20 = 1.2029

50 = 1.2095

100 = 1.2135

200 = 1.1821

253 = 1.1859

GBP/JPY

5 day = 160.86

10 = 161.76

20 = 162.54

50 = 161.31

100 = 161.25′

200 = 163.15

253 = 163.10

Brian Twomey

5 day = 132.6350

10 = 134.3903

20 =135.1324

50 = 133.3938

100 = 132.9733

200 = 138.2023

253 = 137.6981

See the ,top at 137.00’s and shorts. See oversold at 131.00’s. The imperative is to use correct averages derived from Fix prices rather than chart averages because chart averages are miles off and wrong. Would anyone honestly take USD/JPY long from high 136.00’s to target 137.00’s. The trade hit target but what a gamble to roll the dice in such a way and to gamble with trader subscription money. But this is common practice today as chart averages lead traders down a losing road.

Brian Twomey