FX Weekly

Oversold anchor currencies are responsible this week to dictate price movements. Anchor currencies as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY. Cross pairs and wide rangers will follow as GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD.

Last week, AUD/USD and NZD/USD was addressed as deeply oversold bottoms vs massive overbought tops to wide rangers, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD. AUD/USD and NZD/USD required higher prices and lower prices for wide rangers to create acceptable trade ranges.

Wide rangers dropped 300 pips last week while AUD/USD and NZD/USD trade ranges expanded and continue the expansion.

Deeply oversold AUD/USD and NZD/USD again targets higher levels at 0.6513 and 0.6019. AUD/USD 0.6571 and NZD/USD 0.6073 are required breaks to travel much higher o 0.6600’s and upper 0.6100’s for NZD/USD.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD begin the week neutral to oversold and targets 1.6733 and upper 1.9400’s for GBP/AUD.

EUR/USD V DXY

Despite deeply overbought, DXY supports at 103.00’s are many and massive and 103.00’s will hold all week. EUR/USD big break for higher at 1.0893 is required for DXY to trade 102.00’s. EUR/USD must trade 1.1074 to DXY 101.00’s and 1.1167 for DXY 100.00’s.

GBP/USD 1.2792 must trade in order for DXY to see 102.00’s.
Oversold GBP/USD Vs overbought USD/CAD spread at 1100 pips further informs to overbought DXY and USD. The spread should take us to 600 ish pips.
DXY’s slow grind lower reveals 150 and 200 pip weeks ahead.
EUR/USD long term targets remains 1.1047 and upper 1.0800’s for the week.

 Economics

After 1 month of releases since July 26, NFP rolls around again to begin the new 3 week cycle of high powered releases as GDP, CPI, Producer Prices, Imports and Exports.
The Import price is by far the most important insight to all economic releases. All nations suffer from miles high Import prices and this means high CPI, Low GDP, Producer Prices and high Industrial Production, PMI’s and Manufacturing Indices. High Import prices represents nations falling apart from Economic normality.

The successive raise to interest rates not only caused far more damage and with little if any assists to drop CPI.

Japan and the BOJ remain in wonderful economic conditions.

USD/JPY and JPY Cross Pairs

USD/JPY ranges next week 201 pips from 145.36 to 147.37. USD/JPY last week traded 210 pips. Most important to USD/JPY is 144.00’s then 142.00’s as the next vital average. USD/JPY 144.00’s held for the past 2 weeks.

AS DXY trades lower, USD/JPY will eventually break below 144.00’s and 142.00’s to target 140.00’s and 138.00’s.

EUR/JPY this week trades 157.03 to 159.04. EUR/JPY 156.00’s are currently blocked. Required to trade lower is a break at 154.86 and this levels is not expected to break over the few weeks.

GBP/JPY trades this week 201 pips from 183.02 to 185.03 and longer term from 187.00’s to 179.00’s. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower happens to trade at 179.00’s.
USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs strategy for the week is short particularly overbought anchor pair USD/JPY.

AUD/JPY trades this week 92.72 to 94.73. AUD/JPY must cross below 93.36 to trade 92.00’s.

GBP/USD and GBP Cross Pairs

GBP/USD higher must break 1.2642, 1.2672 and 1.2694 to target 1.2752. Not much to a long term target and its located between the 20 and 50 day averages. GBP/USD Next low and long is located at 1.2516.

GBP/USD’s dead range problem is GBP Cross pairs are on a continuation lower.

GOLD, Silver, Nat Gas, Copper

EUR/USD up then higher for XAU/USD, XAG/USD, Nat Gas, USD, Copper/ USD.

EM

USD/EM currencies all trade massive overbought Take your pick and enter short.
Massive overbought USD/CZK targets 22.1347 by breaks at 22.2774, 22.2061 and 22.1347.

USD/DKK targets 6.8738 on break at 6.8902.
USD/RON targets 4.5568 by breaks at 4.5672.

USD/NOK targets 10.6178 by a break at 10.6741.
USD/SEK targets 10.9059 by a break at 10.9907.

Brian Twomey