Month: September 2015

This afternoon saw 1.1163 – 1.1174 range. Points 1.1158 and 1.1139 are no longer valid. New points are 1.1137 and 1.1157. Downside gains 2 pips. Modern day currency trading certainly adds new dimensions to time series. Longer term, break of 1.1137 will gain downside speed.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1109. Range break above 1.1243, 1.1256, Below 1.1087, 1.1074. Overbought sell point 1.1224, Failure point 1.1193. Strategy. Longs above 1.1166, Target 1.1224 then reverse short to 1.1195. Points on the way up, 1.1169, 1.1181, 1.1194, 1.1209, 1.1224.

Shorts below 1.1165, Target 1.1137. Watch here for reversal to 1.1165 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1159, 1.1152, 1.1145, 1.1148, 1.1138, 1.1130, 1.1123, 1.1109 Bottom. Point 1.1137 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Same as yesterday as outlined by EUR and GBP pairs. Major levels reported as well as Overbought/ Oversold determinations. Levels and points are not only credible and actionable but they are carefully, carefully calculated to be exact. I offer the 6 major AUD pairs because they are most popular and important to the RBA. The commonality of the 6 pairs is 4 of the 6 pairs are almost exactly the same pairs. Those pairs are AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF. The oddball pairs are AUD/NZD and AUD/GBP. Why AUD/GBP is offered is because it was the first ever pair aligned as an exchange rate 200 years prior to and when Australia became a formal nation in 1901? Australia shares a long long history with AUD/GBP. Secondly, AUD/GBP is close to important breaks so one can understand why GBP/AUD has been kinda dead and range bound for a long time. In AUD/GBP, I will look at reciprocals to GBP/AUD. AUD/CAD is important because its a risk on, risk off indicator. Traditionally, it doesn’t move far and wide. Decade after decade, AUD/CAD can see 300 – 500 pip movements to offer what doesn’t move far and wide means. As well, AUD/CAD is married to AUD/USD and its the second reason to its importance.

AUD/NZD. 1.1872, 1.1762, 1.1143, 1.1033. Nothing special in AUD/NZD. Pre crisis highs at 2.5 saw 0.0770 lows. AUD/NZD has been working its way back from crisis lows.

AUD/CAD. 0.9931, 0.9491, 0.9483, 0.9459, 0.9367, 0.9274. AUD/CAD isn’t overbought or oversold, its a rare day when it is overbought or oversold. Take the breaks as they come.

AUD/CHF. This pair is severely oversold and has great potential as a long trade. From present 0.6600’s, next levels 0.8910, 0.7033, 0.6991. Bottoms are found at 0.6800,0.6697, 0.6527, 0.6351 and crazy oversold 0.6151. Good pair for the radar screen.

AUD/JPY. 89.94, 88.79, 87.64, 87.50, 87.46, 84.00, 81.14. Watch closely 84.00, price is here. This would be a big break and worth taking the short, particularly when EUR/JPY is on the verge of its break at 132’s.

AUD/USD. AUD shorts are getting more and more scary. The bottom is close. I’m looking at 0.6532 so far as bottom. After 0.6532 then we go into degrees of oversold. Important points: 0.7242, 0.7343, 0.7828.

AUD/GBP. From current 0.4600’s, 0.4926, 0.4746, 0.4726, 0.4717. All are vital breaks. The reciprocal to GBP/AUD is 2.0300, 2.1070, 2.1159, 2.1199. Current GBP/AUD is 2.1542. Any rises in GBP/AUD means more overbought.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Yes so Commercial Paper traded in the United States since the late 19th century and became popular just after the Civil War and Industrial Revolution. How else could companies grow, borrow and invest for projects now that would last far into the future. Quick Wikipedia views says Marcus Goldman traded Commercial Paper in 1869. Marcus Goldman is the founder of Goldman Sachs. The 3 month Treasury Bill wasn’t thought about until Hoover put it into actual practice in 1930? 1929. Only then was the United States on an automatic ability to finance the government. Two self serving sectors existed to automatically fund themselves the private sector and Commercial Paper and 3 month Treasury Bills to fund short term obligations of the Fiscal sector called Government. Fed funds came much later after passage of 1913 Federal Reserve Act. The rest is history as both sectors grew to what exists today. Between Libor and Eurodollars overseas and Commercial paper, its the core components to understand the United States financial system as well as DXY. Fed Funds serves as a tiny tiny fraction of the whole system and DXY. Looking at the tiny fraction to understand the whole sometimes doesn’t work.

1.1158 reported this morning was violated by 1 pip. Very good for continued shorts. Again, the long end of the Euro curve continues to drop and at the fastest rate I’ve seen in many many months. 1.1139 also exists below.

Morning trade was what 1.1203 to 1.1157, + 46 pips.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1119. Range break above 1.1253, 1.1266, Below 1.1097. Overbought sell point 1.1234, Failure point 1.1204. Strategy. Longs above 1.1175, Target 1.1234 then reverse to 1.1204 and 1.1189. Points on the way up, 1.1177, 1.1179, 1.1191, 1.1204, 1.1219, 1.1234.

Shorts below 1.1174, Target 1.1147. Watch for reversal here to 1.1174 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1169, 1.1162, 1.1155, 1.1151, 1.1148, 1.1140, 1.1133,1.1126, 1.1119 Bottom. Point 1.1147 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Deutche Bank this morning reports EUR/USD equilibrium level at 1.16 something. I reported that yesterday as point to cross for EUR higher. Reported GBP/SEK way oversold, well Citi and Kit Jukes at Societe General come out today in favor of longs. Ahead of the curve yet again. I’m in shock at a EURO centric world. EUR/USD must post since that;s what readers want. EUR/NZD paid 276 pips the other day yet few readers, EUR/CAD as well. Forget MXN. Informational articles receive few views. Its 60 + days now for this blog. The questions are what do readers want, what pairs specifically. Any relevant informational articles. Is this blog worth my trouble. Is a website just a headache. Past 300 + trades were all hand calculated and its a nightmare to calculate and ensure perfect accuracy. Do I continue. I don’t know the answers. Or do I continue in my own way and not murder myself. The worst nightmare is breaking through the clutter of junk posted by so so many. They post endless failed trades, incorrect economic data and on and on. Few real pros are out there and report accurate data, trades. I’m thankfully not a member of the ruling cabal. I don’t like them because they are destructive to themselves and everyone else in the trading world nor do they like me. So who knows where it all leads.

Overnight EUR/USD short from 1.1253 saw 1.1202 lows, +51 pips. Lows went further but I can only take credit during the reporting period. Two big points for EUR/USD from my other system, 1.1139 and 1.1158, yesterday I believe 1.1160 and 1.1140.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1147. Range break above 1.1217, Below 1.1190. Overbought sell point 1.1274, Failure point 1.1239. Strategy. Longs above 1.1204, Target 1.1274 then reverse short to 1.1239 and 1.1221. Points on the way up, 1.1207, 1.1210, 1.1225, 1.1239, 1.1257, 1.1274.

Shorts below 1.1202, Target 1.1175. Watch here for reversal to 1.1202 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1194, 1.1186, 1.1181, 1.1177, 1.1168, 1.1147 Bottom. Point 1.1175 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Flow Reports on site for interested and must remain on site. Who’s buying and selling DXY, all corporates. Banks are dealing in Euros, central banks aren’t involved in Euros in any big way. In the last week, central banks bought a few Euros but were more active over the past 4 weeks. Everyone else were selling and that includes leveraged accounts, corporates and banks. Leveraged accounts are speculators like hedge funds. Sometimes they hit right others times not. Overall not a bunch of activity in Euros. JPY is dead from all sectors. Corporates are mostly involved in GBP, central banks aren’t involved in GBP currently. Two categories most important in Flow Reports are Central banks and Corporates. They are the smart investors while the remainder are just speculating. They may win or lose but they aren’t the most knowledgeable investors. I may add to the flow reports as I have tons and tons of info and data.

Afternoon trade lacked a strategy. I’m operating under a new system so first faux pas seen. Just as well, EUR/USD didn’t perform.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1196. range break above 1.1279, 1.1266, Below 1.1239, 1.1226. Overbought sell point 1.1324, Failure point 1.1290. Strategy. Long above 1.1253, Target 1.1324 then reverse to 1.1288. points on the way up, 1.1260, 1.1275, 1.1290, 1.1307, 1.1324.

Shorts below 1.1252, Target 1.1224. Watch here for reversal to 1.1252 and higher. points on the way down, 1.1244, 1.1236, 1.1231, 1.1226, 1.1224, 1.1217, 1.1210, 1.1196 Bottom. Point 1.1224 must cross to go higher.

Watch range breaks closely. Note how this afternoon points and ranges didn’t change. Could be a range night.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Strongest G10 directional signals
SEK: 4-week leveraged flow the most stretched in the
G10
Riksbank was nearly a month ago, why so
long SEK?
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Lev 10%ile 90%ile SEK TWI
Beginning last week SEK started to come under selling
pressure, as investors review their expectations for
Europe, growth and the ECB. Once you adjust for the
average volume, SEK was bought currency in September
after a less dovish Riksbank. We note for hedge funds
SEK is the ONLY g10 currency that is considered
“stretched”, hence greater selling pressure creates high
risk these short-term investors will cover quickly.
See Page 21 for greater details on our SEK flow
JPY: 4-week leveraged flow JPY traders sit on the fence – not selling, but
no longer buying
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Lev 10%ile 90%ile JPY TWI
JPY is a defensive currency, it’s captured heavy inflows
over August and September. Recently, leveraged funds
have taken a more neutral stance (despite EM still being
a risk). While JPY flow hasn’t turned to selling – we flag it
as “one to watch”. Qualitatively, a lot depends on the
stance Investors take towards Abe’s new 3 arrows, GDP
targets under weaker external growth and the BOJ’s role.
Flows tell us that Investors remain uncertain.
Further details of JPY flows are on Page 15.

CEEMEA: ZAR inflows back to extremes
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
-20 14.5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15

RM 10%tile 90%tile USDZAR
The dominance of ZAR inflows by real money investors
continues to be one of the main themes in the region.
SAGBs have been the major recipients of foreign bond
flows, and that is affecting the ZAR spot markets, as some
de-hedging on the FX exposure of bond portfolios seems
to be taking place as well. We see that as an important
vulnerability for the ZAR going forward, in a market still
struggling with the odds of a potential reversal in US

10 1-week indexed flow G10 4-week indexed flow
Total Banks Corps Leveraged
Real
Money
USD -0.62 -2.47 2.46 2.46 -2.20
JPY 5.98 2.57 1.77 2.41 4.96
EUR 0.58 2.63 -3.06 -0.55 0.74
GBP -0.16 -0.98 2.17 -1.94 0.96
CHF -3.83 -3.31 -0.71 -1.38 0.95
SEK -3.56 -3.67 0.22 -2.24 -1.93
NOK -10.68 2.76 -4.24 -10.95 2.21
AUD -0.60 2.14 -3.40 1.26 -2.13
NZD 1.59 -0.89 0.93 2.24 -0.01
CAD -0.77 -0.54 -2.31 0.93 -0.62
EM -2.13 -1.33 0.11 -4.48 0.80
Asia 3.20 6.78 2.17 -4.27 1.78
CEEMEA -5.15 -1.36 -4.87 -2.85 -1.48
LatAm -4.80 -9.72 1.83 -0.68 -0.12

G10 4-week indexed flow
Total Banks Corps Leveraged
Real
Money
USD -0.62 -2.47 2.46 2.46 -2.20
JPY 5.98 2.57 1.77 2.41 4.96
EUR 0.58 2.63 -3.06 -0.55 0.74
GBP -0.16 -0.98 2.17 -1.94 0.96
CHF -3.83 -3.31 -0.71 -1.38 0.95
SEK -3.56 -3.67 0.22 -2.24 -1.93
NOK -10.68 2.76 -4.24 -10.95 2.21
AUD -0.60 2.14 -3.40 1.26 -2.13
NZD 1.59 -0.89 0.93 2.24 -0.01
CAD -0.77 -0.54 -2.31 0.93 -0.62
EM -2.13 -1.33 0.11 -4.48 0.80
Asia 3.20 6.78 2.17 -4.27 1.78
CEEMEA -5.15 -1.36 -4.87 -2.85 -1.48
LatAm -4.80 -9.72 1.83 -0.68 -0.12
Total Banks Corps Leveraged
Real
Money
USD -10.09 -9.51 8.63 -1.79 -7.83
JPY 20.30 18.20 -2.63 2.35 11.32
EUR 1.47 0.73 -5.65 -7.94 9.38
GBP 0.83 -3.95 15.96 2.73 -5.65
CHF -0.90 -7.74 6.10 8.00 -2.13
SEK 8.93 -3.73 -4.23 12.43 0.45
NOK -4.04 4.36 -2.68 -8.08 7.57
AUD -5.78 -3.93 -0.60 5.12 -9.69
NZD 6.07 0.96 -2.17 0.65 8.44
CAD -5.80 -0.77 -12.64 7.98 -11.78
EM 1.44 -2.78 -9.97 1.20 7.72
Asia 5.72 15.71 -11.45 -4.37 4.89
CEEMEA -4.07 -8.51 -19.75 11.43 4.17
LatAm -1.93 -19.35 7.16 1.15 6.63

DXY

Customer 1-wk flow 4-wk flow %ile of 4-wk flow StDev of 4-wk flow Corr, Daily Ret & Flow
Total -0.6 -10.1 7.7% -1.39 12.6%
Banks -2.5 -9.5 27.0% -0.59 -45.9%
Corp 2.5 8.6 54.1% 0.16 -14.8%
Lev 2.5 -1.8 49.4% -0.06 32.4%
RM -2.2 -7.8 6.6% -1.56 26.3%
Investors -0.0 -6.8 11.2% -1.13 38.6%

EUR

Customer 1-wk flow 4-wk flow %ile of 4-wk flow StDev of 4-wk flow Corr, Daily Ret & Flow
Total 0.6 1.5 92.3% 1.31 6.8%
Banks 2.6 0.7 95.0% 1.34 -20.6%
Corp -3.1 -5.6 16.2% -0.82 -10.9%
Lev -0.6 -7.9 17.8% -0.84 16.7%
RM 0.7 9.4 95.8% 1.88 16.6%
Investors 0.2 3.1 83.8% 1.10 22.1%

Listed below are 14 GBP pairs highlighted Vs major support and resistance points. I don’t see a ton of opportunities in G10 except for a few pairs such as GBP/CAD and GBP/JPY. The action in GBP will be seen in the emerging market currencies as those pairs Vs GBP are severely overbought, some extremely and scary overbought. I don’t offer recommendation except to outline major points as well as overbought and oversold determinations. Support and resistance points are derived from a personal system of 400+ currency pairs backed by tons of Statistics and date to 1999. I’m able to look back to any date from today to 1999 and view any pair in terms of averages and many many statistics that back an average. Yet available are also statistics that address a price such as Noise ratios, overbought/ oversold determinations, trade signals and a few of my own inventions. Support and resistance points as well as overbought/ oversold determinations are credible and actionable signals. Take the breaks as outlined and money will be earned.

GBP/USD. 1.5889, 1.5534, 1.5362. GBP is oversold as 1.5534 runs this price.

GBP/JPY. 190.31, 185.91, 175.97, 175.60. Short and long term, GBP/JPY is way oversold.

GBP/CHF. 1.4876, 1.4835, 1.4693. Nothing special in GBP/CHF.

GBP/CAD. 2.0072, 2.0140, 1.9585. The Carney cross so named after current head of the BOE and former head of the BOC is way overbought. The combination to watch is GBP/CAD and GBP/USD since both are the exact same pair.

GBP/NZD. 2.4685, 2.3561, 2.3458, 2.2931, 2.0054. Overbought.

GBP/AUD. 2.1963, 2.1239, 2.1149, 2.1136. Nothing special in GBP/AUD.

GBP/INR. 100.55, 100.25, 84.55. Nothing special here either.

GBP/NOK. 12.6302, 12.6290, 11.1220, 10.7585, 10.2740. This pair is way way overbought. Great short.

GBP/ZAR. 20.2806, 19.9485, 14.8775, 14.0725, 13.7847, 13.2576. GBP/ZAR is another way way overbought currency pair and presents a great short opportunity.

GBP/SEK. 13.0983, 12.9361, 12.6227, 12.3659, 11.8006. Oversold.

GBP/HUF. 429.1869, 435.2619, 361.9256.

GBP/TRY. 4.4638, 3.1499, 2.7953. GBP/TRY is scary overbought.

GBP/MYR. 6.3551, 6.1955, 5.6985. Malaysia is currently revamping their overnight rate. This takes time so MYR will be very volatile. Malaysia is a smart smart financial system. Current price is way way overbought.

GBP/SGD. 2.4903, 2.3281, 2.1490, 2.1455, 2.0244.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

The health of currency market prices and markets in general is just fine, viewed from the CAD/ZAR and EUR/USD relationship. As long as both pairs trade at polar opposite extremes as is the case presently then the market in Risk Off / Risk On terms is fine and healthy. The point of worry occurs when either both pairs cross over or when both pairs trade alongside each other as was the situation in 2008. Those situations warn of either major reversals or years of long lasting trends. Currently, we are well positioned in Risk off markets as CAD/ZAR trades well above EUR/USD. Outlined below are major supports, resistance points and oversold/ overbought determinations for 14 EUR pairs. While we’ve been trading short term target points for the past 60 days and 300 + trades, I’m operational to another system that has a view to 1998 and multitudes of Stats for 400 + currency pairs. The points offered are solid and lasting for many months in the future. See breaks along the way, take it.

EUR/USD. Major points below to gain short speed 1.1159 and 1.1140, above 1.2206 but 1.1682 must cross to see 1.2206. Oversold from 1.3284, oversold intraday.

EUR/JPY. Below points 132.52, 131.32, Above 135.03 and 136.45. Way way oversold long and short term unless 132.52 and 131.32 breaks then 127 is next major point. EUR/JPY has been in do or die mode for many months. As the best of a traditional risk off risk on indicator, EUR/JPY failed to deliver perfect signals yet it tracks perfectly to AUD/CAD as its counterpart risk indicator.

EUR/CHF. 1.0777 and 1.0668 below. Does EUR/CHF again regain its dominance as another preeminent Risk on risk off indicator since the SNB lifted the 1.2000 Floor.Hard to say as a possible cross is in the mix Vs CAD/JPY. As a risk measure, CAD/JPY is the best mover in terms of its brothers AUD/CAD and EUR/JPY. EUR/CHF could easily emerge as just another currency pair to trade with the risk on risk off characteristics.

EUR/CAD. 1.4639, 1.4583 and 1.4396. Traditionally a dead mover pair but lately very volatile.

EUR/AUD. 1.5734, 1.5433, 1.5192, 1.5170. This pair is way way overbought. Big mover, wide ranges, great pair.

EUR/GBP. 0.7593, 0.7265, 0.7172. Slowly reaching oversold.

EUR/INR 72.84, 72.19, 70.12. Oversold longer term, fairly oversold short term.

EUR/NOK. 9.1756, 9.0581, 8.1020. Severely and sickly overbought, at current Richter scale overbought levels. Norges just cut Repo rate so volatility expected.

EUR/SEK. 9.3916, 9.3962, 9.3160, 9.2751. Oversold, way oversold.

EUR/ZAR. 14.7393, 14.3126, 12.0849. Way overbought, Part of the EUR/ZAR problem is USD/ZAR is light years overbought. USD/ZAR 13.2039, 12.8452, 9.3719, 8.4620.

EUR/HUF 312.10, 311.75, 279.13.

EUR/BRL. 4.1035, 3.8393, 2.8049. Scary overbought. I wouldn’t touch this pair long for 1 pip.

EUR/TRY. 3.1466, 3.2439, 2.5601, Way overbought. Careful longs.

EUR/CZK. The 27.00 Floor continues to hold, barely. 27.16, 26.38, 27.79.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Post in minutes here, entire EUR complex, 11 pairs, major supports / Resistance points, overbought / oversold. INR included, ZAR, HUF and more

EUR this morning, violated reported Failure point by 3 pips, 1.1204 to 1.1244, + 40 pips.Believe reversal points hit perfectly as well for whatever more pips.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1198. Range break above 1.1307, 1.1320, Below 1.1202, 1.1189. Overbought sell point 1.1330, Failure point 1.1295. Points on the way up, 1.1259, 1.1264, 1.1280, 1.1295, 1.1313, 1.1330.

Shorts below 1.1254, Target 1.1226. Watch here for reversal to 1.1254 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1247, 1.1239, 1.1231, 1.1229, 1.1226, 1.1212, 1.1198 Bottom. Point 1.1226 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Overnight trades. EUR/NZD. From 1.7881, longs dead stopped 1.7898 between reported 1.7893 – 1.7916 and before 1.7940 Failure point. Then reversed to low 1.7605, + 17 longs, + 276 Shorts, total + 293 pips. EUR/CAD. From 1.5091 dead stopped 1.5142 perfect at Failure point, then saw lows 1.5000, + 51 longs, + 42 shorts, total + 94. EUR/USD. From 1.1253, Dead stopped 1.1280, 10 pips from Failure point 1.1290 then reversed to 1.1201, + 27 longs, + 79 shorts, total + 106 pips.
Total pips 3 EUR trades overnight, + 493 pips. Hedge fund returns posted on site, we beat’em every time.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1147. Range break above 1.1230, Below 1.1177. Overbought sell point 1.1274, Failure point 1.1241. Strategy. Longs above 1.1204, Target 1.1274 then reverse to 1.1239. Points on the way up, 1.1207, 1.1211, 1.1226, 1.1241, 1.1258, 1.1274.

Shorts below 1.1203, Target 1.1175. Watch here for reversal to 1.1203 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1194, 1.1187, 1.1177, 1.1175, 1.1168, 1.1161, 1.1147 Bottom. Point 1.1175 must break to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.5015. Range break above 1.5108, 1.5126, Below 1.5073, 1.5055. Overbought sell point 1.5186, Failure 1.5141. Strategy. Longs above 1.5091, Target 1.5186 then reverse short to 1.5138 and at 1.5141 reverse to 1.5116. Points on the way up, 1.5101, 1.5121, 1.5141, 1.5164, 1.5186.

Shorts below 1.5091, target 1.5053. Watch here for reversal to 1.5091 and higher. Points on the way down,1.5089, 1.5079, 1.5068, 1.5055, 1.5043, 1.5034, 1.5015 Bottom. Point 1.5053 must break to go higher.

Watch range points closely.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/NZD. Bottom. 1.7791. Range break above 1.7901, 1.7922, Below 1.7860, 1.7839. Overbought sell point 1.7994, Failure point 1.7940. Strategy. Longs above 1.7881, Target 1.7994 then reverse to 1.7937 and 1.7910. Points on the way up, 1.7887, 1.7893, 1.7916, 1.7940, 1.7967, 1.7994.

Shorts below 1.7881, Target 1.7836. Watch here for reversal to 1.7881 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.7879, 1.7866, 1.7854, 1.7846, 1.7839, 1.7825, 1.7813, 1.7791 Bottom. Point 1.7836 must break to go higher.

EUR/CAD Next

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD from 1.1234, dead stopped 1.1252, long before 1.1271 failure point. EUR/CAD just dead stopped at reported 1.5091, EUR/NZD is off target by about 60 pips. Will post EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD in minutes.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1196. Range break above 1.1266, 1.1279, Below 1.1239, 1.1226. Overbought sell point 1.1324, Failure point 1.1290. Strategy. Longs above 1.1253, Target 1.1324 then reverse 1.1288, at 1.1290 reverse to 1.1271. Points on the way up, 1.1266, 1.1275, 1.1291, 1.1307, 1.1324.

Shorts below 1.1253, Target 1.1224. Watch here for reversal to 1.1253 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1244, 1.1236, 1.1231, 1.1226, 1.1217, 1.1210, 1.1196 Bottom. Point 1.1224 must break to go higher.

Again we watch range points closely. Note how below target is 1.1224 yet range point 1.1226.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/NZD suffered for years on the floor from the 2008 housing crisis as it saw its highs from 2008 at 2.57 drop to 1.3900 lows April 2015. Now its in a 6 month massive uptrend and saw 1.85 highs. Price is now 1.7700’s. What’s driving this price is 1.7053, 1.6893 and 1.6400. What stops price above is 1.8105 and 1.8454. EUR/NZD is a great mover as is EUR/CAD and pays well.
For new traders following, please be careful with volatile pairs and be happy to continuously earn money despite a few points may be missed. Don’t try to earn the last point available.

MXN again made new highs, longs from 16.9594 are now 17.1200’s. I’m fully operational again, my arsenal is 500 currency pairs and able to hit perfect targets on any pair, any day, anytime. Twice I posted 5 different pairs that hit perfect targets. Next goal is 10 pairs.

EUR/NZD. 1.7616. Range break above 1.7746, 1.7725, Below 1.7684, 1.7663. Overbought sell point 1.7790, Failure point 1.7764, top channel 1.7816. Strategy. Longs above 1.7705, target 1.7790 then reverse short to 1.7747. Points on the way up, 1.7711, 1.7716, 1.7740, 1.7764, 1.7790, 1.7817.

Shorts below 1.7705, Target 1.7660. Watch for reversal here to 1.7705 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.7703, 1.7690, 1.7678, 1.7670, 1.7663, 1.7649, 1.7638, 1.7616 Bottom. Point 1.7660 must cross to go higher on a break. Failure to break then price goes higher.

Also watch range points

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4922. Range break above 1.5014, 1.5032, Below 1.4979, 1.4962. Overbought sell point 1.5091, Failure point 1.5047, Top Channel 1.5120. Strategy. Longs above 1.4997, Target 1.5091, Then reverse short to 1.5044, at 1.5047 then short to 1.5022. Points on the way up, 1.5007, 1.5027, 1.5037, 1.5047, 1.5069, 1.5091.

Shorts below 1.4997, Target 1.4959. Watch for reversal here to 1.4997 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.4995, 1.4974, 1.4962, 1.4959, 1.4940, 1.4022 Bottom. Point 1.4959 must break to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

This morning’s short EUR target was 1.1141, bottom 1.1114. Price reversed at 1.1146 between reported 1.1145 and 1.1152. To continue to 1.1114 Bottom, 1.1141 had to break. It didn’t. Targets serve the same purpose as a reversal point. They deserve caution and special attention. I always warn a move higher or hold of 1.1141 and overall short target means price goes higher to first target the long point. This morning was 1.1169. Break of 1.1169 was signal to go long and monitor levels for targets to hit as well as reversal points. Target points are very special because they deliver price messages to where price will head next. The target above was 1.1227 and price broke to 1.1247. The top point of the target was 1.1240 yet violated by 7 pips. Normally that means price is heading higher but its also Monday and the world isn’t yet in sync to prices. Note price price price, its the least understood aspect to currency trading the world over, analyst or pseudo analyst. Was the 1.1140’s a place to short knowing target at 1.1141 was close and Bottom at 1.1114. No, unless 1.1141 broke then a short is plausible but a quick short as a scalp. Consider bottom breaks in the past 300 trades, they don’t break often and when they do break, the value of the short earns maybe another 20 pips maximum. Bottom are solid, its why breaks only see 20 pips max. Bottom breaks are a Non farm Payroll type event, China Devaluation, Greece in disaster, Yellen falls.

EUR/USD price is best described as balanced, not overbought, not oversold. Volatility is actually very low which means EUR is not ready to see a big price move in one fell swoop. I know we saw a 100 pip jump this morning but 100 pips in currency price trading doesn’t move the needle in the overall picture. Instead slow price grinds should be the way. EUR price extremes above are located at 1.1492, 1.1465 and 1.1323. Below extremes are found at 1.1065, 1.1003 and 1.0964. EUR/USD is playing around at the 20 day average at 1.1234. Normally that means volatility is here but its the ranges surrounding the 20 day that is containing EUR prices. Price containment is what is suppressing volatility and stopping bigger moves. The 5 day average 1.1194, 10 1.1228, 20 1.1234, 50 day 1.1216. Two big points very important 1.1140 ( 100 day) and 1.1164. The ECB overall is working to bring the EUR price lower as the long section of the curve is finally moving lower from its long stasis positions. I have use of two separate models and its the daily model that will continue.

Met a girl, resides not far away, a trainer in currency trading for interested, she’s smart and smart enough to read my book and even recommend to her students. That speaks volumes. twitter @rehgalfx

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1171. Range break above 1.1246, 1.1259, Below 1.1220, 1.1207. Overbought sell point 1.1287, Failure point 1.1271, top of channel 1.1304. Strategy. Longs above 1.1233, target 1.1287 then reverse short to 1.1260. Points on the way up, 1.1241, 1.1256, 1.1253, 1.1271, 1.1287.

Shorts below 1.1233, Target 1.1205. Watch 1.1205 for reversal higher. Break 1.1205 then price continues lower. Points on the way down, 1.1232, 1.1224, 1.1220, 1.1216, 1.1209, 1.1193, 1.1177 Bottom. Point 1.1205 must cross or hold to see higher prices.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Last night EUR/USD barely saw above 1.1193, failed at 1.1201 which was the first point mentioned above 1.1193, good for shorts. Downside saw what +28 pips.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1114. Range break above 1.1182 and 1.1195, Below 1.1156, 1.1143. Overbought sell point 1.1227, Failure point 1.1206. Strategy. Longs above 1.1169, target 1.1227 then reverse to 1.1198, Failure point reversal 1.1187. Points on the way up, 1.1176, 1.1191, 1.1206, 1.1223, 1.1227.

Shorts below 1.1169, Target 1.1141. Watch here for reversal to 1.1169. Points on the way down, 1.1160, 1.1152, 1.1145, 1.1129, 1.1114 Bottom. Point 1.1141 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD Opened 0.7019, Dead stopped and bounced at reported range point 0.7007 and jumped to 0.7029, 22 pip range. Nothing special. EUR/USD from 1.1194 saw low 1.1183, crossed 1.1194 and bounced to 1.1213, 30 pip range, + 19 pips. GBP/USD 1.5174 to 1.5208, +34, range 1.5179 – 1.5208, 29 pip range.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1138. Range break above 1.1206, 1.1219, Below 1.1180 and 1.1167. Overbought sell point 1.1247, failure point 1.1230. Strategy. Longs above 1.1193, Target 1.1247 then reverse short to 1.1220. Points on the way up, 1.1201, 1.1215, 1.1230, 1.1247.

Shorts below 1.1193, Target 1.1165. Watch here for reversal to 1.1193. Points on the way down, 1.1192, 1.1184, 1.1180, 1.1176, 1.1157, 1.1138 Bottom. Point 1.1165 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

From the 1915.75 close and to move higher, the S&P must break above the 1 and 2 year averages at 2048.49 and 1968.42. Crucial to the break of averages at the 1 and 2 year points are Medians found at 2067.13 and 1967.31. Add the significant top at the 2048.40, 1 year average then S& P’s moving higher is not an easy task. Failure to break higher leaves the S&P’s trading between 2 and 5 year averages at 1968.43 – 1626.38. A break of the 5 year average at 1626.38 then targets the 10 and 15 year averages at 1423.11 and 1315.85.

The S& P’s are trading inside a massive 732 point range between 2048.49 – 1315.85. Between 2048.49 and 1315.85 are found further averages at 1968.43, 1626.38 and 1423.11. Points 2048 and 1315 call the shots for S&P prices. Price rises leaves 1315 overbought yet price drops reveals 2048 oversold. Price extremes for both averages are found at 1868.02 below and 2275.16 above. Current price at 1915 is severely oversold from 2048 and becomes more oversold with any further price drops.

Significant tops are seen at the 1 year at 2048, 10 year average at 1423 and 15 year at 1315. Targets for all averages highlight not only significant peaks but the hard road to cross 1968 and 2048. Targets from the 1 to 15 year averages are found at 1988.33, 1865.40, 1936.71, 1755.43 and 1635.62. What targets and peaks reveal is the trading range between 1626.38 and 1968.43 is not expected to break anytime soon particularly as the 5 year average at 1626 reveals a trend just beginning. Important to the 5 year average is it mo longer contains the 10 months of post 2008 crisis lows between 757 – 935. Post crisis low data is now found in the 10 year average and its why that average fails to hold much significance.

The strategy moving forward is not longs due to significant points at 1968 and 2948 but further due to significant Peaks. I would feel more comfortable in selling any rallies until the averages normalize.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

If AUD/USD range conditions in the last few weeks resembles GBP/USD, its because AUD is by far more closely aligned with GBP than USD. AUD sets prices based on USD then as it trades, it becomes aligned in movements with GBP since AUD derived from the GBP tradition. AUD on its own is not sure if it should align fully in the GBP or USD camp so because its stuck between, AUD is a hybrid currency and as an aligned currency pair, its more married to GBP than USD. Viewed till the end of the curve, AUD is still stuck in range bound ways without big sudden moves expected. I see its price move as a slow grind with overall direction down.

The larger picture reveals AUD/USD range is caught between thick resistance at 0.7135, 0.7137 and 0.7139 then rough supports from 0.6899 – 0.7007. Specifically, 0.7007, 0.6995, 0.6978, 0.6901 and 0.6899. Above, 0.7030, 0.7042, 0.7058 and 0.7130’s. The points at 0.7130’s is holding AUD from moves to 0.7248 and 0.7260. Below 0.6899 is holding AUD from moves to 0.6700’s and lower. 0.6400’s could very well be seen in time.

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.6983. Range break above 0.7042 and 0.7058, Below 0.7007, 0.6995. Overbought sell point 0.7042. Strategy. Longs above 0.7019, Target 0.7042 then reverse short to 0.7930. Watch closely ranges at 0.7030 and 0.7042. Points on the way up, 0.7021, 0.7032, 0.7042.

Shorts below 0.7018, Target 0.7000, Watch 0.7007 range point. Then comes Bottom at 0.6983 but range point 0.6995.

Watch the range points and take the breaks.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com