Month: February 2018

80 day = 0.6464 = 1.5470

Special = 0.6454 = 1.5494

334 day = 0.6778

591 day = 0.6734

846 day = 0.6754

1101 day = 0.6761

1279 day = 5Y = 0.6837

1356 day = 0.6899

1613 day = 0.7073

1871 day = 0.7117

2128 day = 0.7073

2383 day = 0.6904

2562 day = 10Y = 0.6832

2639 day = 0.6809

2894 day = 0.6748

3150 day = 0.6691

3408 day = 0.6643

3590 day = 14Y = 0.6605

3665 day = 0.6595

3920 day = 0.6536 = 1.5299

4174 day = 0.6491 = 1.5405

4429 day = 0.6453 = 1.5496

4685 day = 0.6445 = 1.5515

4904 day = 0.6427 = 1.5559

The low side to EUR/AUD for the week is AUD/EUR at 0.6491 and 0.6507 or EUR/AUD at 1.5405 and 1.5368. The high side to AUD/EUR at 0.6713 and 0.6740 equates to EUR/AUD at 1.4896 and 1.4836. To see EUR/AUD gain downside speed and trend change short then 1.5498 must break or AUD/EUR at 0.6452. Also EUR/AUD 1.5319 contains a massive continuation short break or AUD/EUR at 0.6527.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey

80 day = 133.76

Special average = 132.91

335 day = 126.78

593 day = 124.77

848 day = 128.32

1103 day = 130.80

1279 day = 5Y = 130.62

1357 day = 129.65

1614 day = 125.25

1873 day = 123.44

2130 day = 122.98

2385 day = 123.61

2562 day = 10Y = 125.99

2640 day = 127.02

2894 day = 129.88

3151 day = 131.04

3410 day = 131.45

3590 day = 14Y = 131.56

3667 day = 131.57

3922 day = 131.46

4175 day = 130.53

4429 day = 129.15

4687 day = 127.60

4904 day = 127.45

Brian Twomey

80 day = 111.23

Special = 109.28

335 day = 111.94

593 day = 111.20

848 day = 113.95

1103 day = 111.47

1279 day = 5Y = 109.64

1357 day = 108.30

1614 day = 103.64

1873 day = 100.45

2130 day = 99.04

2385 day = 98.53

2562 day = 10Y= 98.96

2640 day = 99.28

2894 day = 100.98

3151 day = 102.25

3410 day = 102.67

3590 day = 14Y = 103.01

3667 day = 103.11

3922 day = 104.08

4175 day = 105.38

4429 day = 106.18

4687 day = 106.20

4904 day = 106.62

Brian Twomey

80 day = 1.3598

Special Average = 1.3732

335 day = 1.2947

593 day = 1.3392

848 day = 1.3993

1103 day = 1.4587

1279 day = 5Y = 1.4708

1357 day = 1.4778

1614 day = 1.4939

1873 day = 1.5092

2130 day = 1.5148

2385 day = 1.5181

2562 day = 10Y = 1.5451

2640 day = 1.5588

2894 day = 1.5962

3151 day = 1.6137

3410 day = 1.6313

3590 day = 14Y = 1.6405

3667 day = 1.6434

3922 day = 1.6413

4175 day = 1.6315

4429 day = 1.6206

4687 day = 1.6163

4904 day = 1.6164

Brian Twomey

80 day = 151.19

Special average = 150.01

335 day = 144.89

593 day = 149.08

848 day = 159.96

1103 day = 162.49

1357 day = 159.68

1279 day = 5Y = 161.02

1614 day = 154.12

1873 day = 150.68

2130 day = 149.16

2385 day = 148.79

2562 day = 10Y = 152.33

2640 day = 154.33

2894 day = 161.46

3151 day = 165.51

3410 day = 168.03

3590 day = 14 Y = 169.57

3667 day = 170.02

3922 day = 171.33

4175 day = 172.20

4429 day = 172.18

4687 day = 171.75

4904 day = 172.43

Brian Twomey

80 day = 0.7776

Special Average = 0.7850

335 day = 0.7667

593 day = 0.7553

848 day = 0.7604

1103 day = 0.7959

1279 day = 5Y = 0.8190

1357 day = 0.8319

1614 day = 0.8635

1873 day = 0.8864

2130 day = 0.8889

2385 day = 0.8744

2562 day = 10Y= 0.8753

2640 day = 0.8757

2894 day = 0.8710

3151 day = 0.8609

3410 day = 0.8538

3590 day = 14Y = 0.8471

3667 day = 0.8451

3922 day = 0.8308

4175 day = 0.8130

4429 day = 0.7962

4687 day = 0.7853

4904 day = 0.7792

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD massive break points at 1.2800’s are located at 1.2830, 1.2834, 1.2841, 1.2874, 1.2888 and 1.2891. The last break point above 1.2800’s is 1.2938. Above 1.2938, EUR/USD range is out of bounds. Most vital is 10 and 14 year averages at 1.2834 and 1.2841.

Below, EUR/USD must break 1.2166 to travel lower yet 1.2166 is protected by the 5 year average at 1.1971 and 1.1971 is protected by 1.2080, 1.2030, 1.2039, 1.2177 and 1.2142. Below 1.1971 then flood gates open to 1.1776 and 1.1331.

Following are averages separated by 200 days  from 80 days to 4904 days or Jan 1999.

80 days = 1.2030

Special Average = 1.2166

335 days = 1.1331

593 days = 1.1227

848 days = 1.1264

1103 days = 1.1776

1279 days = 5Y = 1.1971

1357 days = 1.2039

1614 days = 1.2177

1873 days = 1.2419,

2130 days = 1.2547

2385 days = 1.2667

2562 days = 10Y = 1.2834

2640 days = 1.2888

2894 days = 1.2938

3151 days = 1.2891

3410 days = 1.2874

3590 days = 14Y = 1.2841

3667 days = 1.2830

3922 days 1.2711

4175 days = 1.2502

4429 days = 1.2298

4687 days = 1.2142

4904 days = 1.2080

Brian Twomey

The first problem in USD/CAD at 1.2655 and market leader EUR/USD at 1.2304 is a paltry 351 pip separation exists between both prices. The variation is more comfortable at about 500 pips yet the pronounced USD VS EUR struggle is seen specifically in USD/CAD as USD/CAD’s price is far to low because the signal is far to high. What separates USD/CAD to its counterparts in USD/CHF and USD/JPY is the variation in USD/CHF and USD/JPY is miles to high. USD/CAD is as much a market leader and insight to USD as it is to EUR and the pre emminent pair to view the various relationships. Viewed as an inter relationship from EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY is the signal / variation are the same and informs how much each pair trades inside each other’s orbit. Yet it also informs current prices must separate and breakout from each other.

The commonality to USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY is USD prices are much to low. EUR/USD by itself informs the downside is solidly contained and the EUR/USD price can’t handle a far lower price. As Europe and the United States were designed as complete opposite financial systems against two separate currency and financial prices, EUR or USD must win the argument by a greater variation.

Why USD/CAD signals are atronomically high and out of kilter is because averages in USD/CAD over an 18 year period are far to low in relation to current prices. USD/CAD not only desperately needs a price deviation but its price must travel higher to relieve the massive pressure. The problem at current 1.2655 is the upper averages are located at 1.2908, 1.2972 and 1.3100. Above 1.3100, USD/CAD is outside its range yet at 1.3100 only slightly relieves price pressures to be considered normality. The why question is answered by USD/CAD is driven strictly by its shorter averages and provides zero assistance to allow longer dated averages to move higher and match current prices.

The positive to USD/CAD is all averages are vastly oversold despite lower averages and its because USD/CAD movements are naturally allowed wide latitudes. Second positive is USD/CAD remains above its 5 year average at 1.2150 and is forever in buy drop mode as lower averages provide constant supports over a long long period of time. Further, a drop in USD/CAD from 1.2000’s to 1.2500’s raises the signal to inform a lower USD/CAD price cannot hold as it must travel higher. A lower USD/CAD risks a violent move higher. Only a drop at or below 1.1800’s relieves current price dilemmas while 1.2900’s begins normalization.

As the aptly named Loonie is at war against itself due to  its top at 1.3100, USD/CAD  contends with EUR/USD at its top and 6 break points at  1.2800’s as well as  the 5 year average at 1.1971. EUR/USD below 1.1971 opens the flood gates to 1.1776 then 1.1331 and 1.1264. Overall, EUR/USD must break 1.2166 to travel lower yet supports are built into the averages to protect 1.1971 at 1.2080, 1.2039 and 1.2030. EUR/USD at 1.2166 is protected by 1.2177 and 1.2142. Overall EUR/USD range is roughly 700 pips from 1.2100 to 1.2800.

USD/CAD must break 1.2585 to travel lower then targets become 1.2445, 1.2354, 1.2236. The 5 year average at 1.2150 is protected by 1.2090 and 1.2023. Overall USD/CAD range is located at 600 pips from 1.3100 to 1.2585. The EUR/USD story remains the same as USD/CAD  shorter averages are strict price drivers and longer dated averages provide zero assistance.

On the interest rate front, CAD’s Corra trades at 1.21 in relation to 1.25 or a 0.04 distance while Fed Funds at its normal close at 1.42 and 1.50 headline provides a 0.08 distance. The USD side performs all the work for CAD. Why view EUR is because Eonia to USD provides a healthy 0.58 distance and allows CAD not only to become EUR/USD’s complete correlation opposite but allows USD/CAD its wide movements as supreme USD pair to USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

The noted point in the USD/CAD and EUR/USD relationship is similarities in prices at 1.2655 and 1.2304. The only other pair USD/CAD and EUR/USD contend against is GBP/CHF. At 1.2655, USD/CAD maintains footholds in USD, Europe and the UK.

As averages are offered below, stated again is USD/CAD is a terrific currency pair in design, construction, movements, volatility and as an interest rate. Canada and Canadian markets are pure market systems and its why CAD as USD/CAD was constructed ever so carefully and  brilliantly.

80 day = 1.2619

Special Average = 1.2585

334 Day = 1.2972

592 Day = 1.3100

847 Day = 1.2908

Close = 1.2655

1102 Day = 1.2445

1279 day = 5Y = 1.2150

1357 day = 1.2023

1613 day = 1.1710

1872 day = 1.1455

2129 day = 1.1324

2384 day = 1362

2562 = 10Y = 1.1297

2640 day = 1.1257

2894 day = 1.1233

3150 day = 1.1245

3409 day = 1.1316

3590 day = 14Y = 1.1412

3665 day = 1.1447

3921 day = 1.1639

4175 day = 1.1888

4429 day = 1.2090

4686 day = 1.2236

4904 day = 1.2354

Brian Twomey

AUD/EUR followed by EUR/AUD.   At 0.6371 was close for AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD trades currently 1.5696

80 day = 0.6478 = 1.5436

Special Average = 0.6464 = 1.5470

334 day = 0.6786 = 1.4736

591 day = 0.6735 = 1.4847

846 day = 0.6757 = 1.4799

1101 day = 0.6764 = 1.4784

1279 day = 5Y = 0.6842 = 1.4615

1356 day = 0.6905 = 1.4482

1613 day = 0.7077 = 1.2975

1871 day = 0.7119 = 1.4046

2128 day = 0.7073 = 1.4138

2383 day = 0.6902 = 1.4488

2562 day = 10Y = 0.6832 = 1.4637

2639 day = 0.6809 = 1.4686

2894 day = 0.6747 = 1.4821

3150 day = 0.6690 = 1.4947

3408 day = 6642 = 1.5055

3590 = 14Y = 0.6605 = 1.5140

3665 day = 0.6595 = 1.5163

3920 day = 0.6535 = 1.5302

4174 day = 0.6490 = 1.5408

4429 day = 0.6452 = 1.5499

4685 day = 0.6445 = 1.5515

4899 day = 0.6427 = 1.5559

Brian Twomey

If I present the MA views Vertical or up and down then the picture is clear, Horizontal or left to right then it appears not as clear. If I present for example 5 or 6 vital break points Horizontally then it appears possibly as information overload. What if Horizontal lines were drawn against or inside the Vertical lines as possibly many long term mid points or mid points between averages. My preference by fact and years of tests is mid points between averages because longer term mid points begins to impede on Fibonacci and Fibonacci Vs Moving average statistics are miles apart. Never was nor ever will I become enamored with Fibonacci because the numbers are wrong and off especially as it pertain to target trading.

Why the vertical view in my estimation is dominant is because we think of exchange rates as moving up and down rather than left to right yet the Vertical view is as much correct as the Horizontal especially as either view contains 18 years of moving averages.

Most specifically and not understood in exchange rate trading is currency prices are deeply in love with extreme points. Extreme points in my daily trades for 3 years are interest rate extremes but Moving averages are as much attractors to a price. A price must trade to its next point and if the level happens to be extreme then its quite normal.

Why this article and depth is because I’m in the process to draw interest rate lines to match a picture to a daily trade and overall this is quite an excursion especially to match exact points from currency pair to currency pair. The target aspect is easy but location is the key. As usual, I’m miles ahead of the crowds respectfully.

Notice the break of 0.7487 at the 5 year average and note how prices then trade in the center of the 18 year view. Luckily for the 5, 10 and 14 year averages then we see 4 quadrants based on 18 years of moving averages. If a price trades to the center then the drop will travel quite far. Alternatively, if price trades at its low extremes at 0.6900’s to 0.6700’s and 0.6600 then a far distance exists to trade higher. Traders want 0.7487 to break as multi month or even multi year trades exist. At 0.7648 is top in the center and NZD won’t trade above otherwise its out of range and a free trade would present itself.

For NZD/USD to reach the crucial center above 0.7487 then 6 break points exist, 0.7379, 0.7413, 0.7425, 0.7427, 0.7433 and 0.7487. Note EUR/USD contains 6 break points to reach its center trade levels above 1.2800’s. Currency pairs are exactly the same to each other as the names of pairs and exchange rate numbers are quite meaningless as most important is location.

Why location is because economic announcements are all the same nation to nation. Currently GDP for example is slated to travel higher in all nations. A time will come when this reverses and all nations report lower GDP. So tightly wound are exchange rates to each other. View other economic releases and see its all the same as the current world outlook is good. But note how a vast majority of currency pair prices are located near the center while non USD pairs at the bottom. The relationship is bottom quadrant to center and broken down by 4 quadrants  or 4 locations.

What melds the system of exchange rates and economic announcements together is interest rates between and among nations as all  trade at pretty much 1.50. NZD is 1.75 but the difference between 1.50 and 1.75 is extremely small and hardly registers.

Ask this question. Is NZD rising and USD falling. How is this question assessed in cross pairs such as EUR/CAD. Only one side of a cross pair is a dominant driver.

0.7648 tops to lows at 0.6657 mid point is 0.7152. At 0.7487 at the 5 year average to 0.7026 lows mid point is 0.7256. At 0.7425 at the 10Y to 0.7026 mid point is 0.7225. At 0.7279 and 14Y to 0.7026 mid point is 0.7152. At 0.7487 to 0.7279 mid equals 0.7383.

Lower for NZD must break 0.7231. For the week, 0.7341, 0.7379, 0.7413, 0.7425, 0.7427, 0.7433 and 0.7487.

80 day = 0.7074

Special average = 0.7231

334 day = 0.7124

591 day = 0.7026

846 day = 0.7076

1101 day = 0.7379

1279 = 5Y = 0.7487

1356 day = 0.7533

1613 day = 0.7609

1871 day = 0.7648

2128 day = 0.7588

2383 day = 0.7427

2562 day = 10Y = 0.7425

2639 day = 0.7433

2894 day = 0.7413

3150 day = 0.7341

3408 day = 0.7320

3590 day = 14Y = 0.7279

3665 day = 0.7264

3920 day = 0.7155

4174 day = 0.6994

4429 day = 0.6833

4685 day = 0.6718

4899 day = 0.6657.

Brian Twomey

From 133.78 to lowest lows at 122.98, Mid point is located at 128.38. From 133.78 to 130.59 at the 5 year average, Mid point is located at 132.18. From 133.78 to 126.04 at the 10 year, mid point is located at 129.91.

80 day = 133.78

Special average = 133.39

334 day = 126.56

592 day = 124.76

847 day = 128.35

1102 day = 130.81

1279 day = 5Y = 130.59

1357 day = 129.54

1613 day = 125.19

1872 day = 123.40

2129 day = 122.98

2384 day = 123.59

2562 day = 10Y = 126.04

2640 day = 127.08

2894 day = 129.91

3150 day = 131.05

3409 day = 131.46

3590 day = 14Y = 131.57

3665 day = 131.57

3921 day = 131.45

4175 day = 130.50

4429 day = 129.11

4686 day = 17.58

4899 day = 127.45

Brian Twomey

Friends, readers and followers are invited to understand and view short to long term currency markets from the EUR/USD and CAD/ZAR perspective from 3 months to 1953 or 65 years. Most important relationship in all traded markets is EUR/USD V CAD/ZAR.

Wide ranges are seen in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY and wide ranges is defined at 10 pips higher than EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. The laggard pair is USD/JPY at 20 pips lower which means GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are performing the work to USD/JPY.

The only location short term where GBP/JPY is seen as far to low is viewed in 2016 or roughly a 2 year average. From 2018 to 2009, GBP/JPY is correctly positioned middle range in relation to GBP/USD and USD/JPY. A crossover is threatened in 2010 and 2009 while 2007 is also viewed where GBP/JPY is much to low and needs to travel higher. Dated to Feb 1999, GBP/JPY price is low and out of range.

Most important pair to GBP/USD and the BOE is GBP/JPY as GBP/JPY must be contained in order to hold GBP/USD to desired exchange rate levels. Therefore its imperative for the BOE to maintain GBP/USD correlations to GBP/JPY or GBP/USD trades against desired levels.

From 144.56 lows to upper most 172.46 highs, Mid point is located at 158.51. At 158.51 is above the 10 year average at 152.45. From 144.56 to 152.45, Mid point is located at 148.50. Current GBP/JPY trades at lowest points in its 18 year range.

To travel higher, 150.46 and 150.63 must break to target first 151.25 at the 80 day. Next above break is 149.16 and 149.38.At 144 is a severely misplaced average but overall GBP/JPY averages lack uniformity.

80 day = 151.25

Special average = 150.46

Close = 149.10

335 day = 144.56

Close = 149.10

593 day = 149.38

848 day = 160.11

1103 day = 162.53

1279 day = 5Y = 161.00

1357 day = 159.60

1614 day = 154.04

1873 day = 150.63

Close = 149.10

2130 = 149.16

2385 day = 148.80

2562 day = 10Y = 152.45

2640 day = 154.50

2894 day = 161.59

3151 day = 165.60

3410 day = 168.10

3590 day = 14Y = 169.65

3667 day = 170.07

3922 day = 171.38

4175 day = 172.23

4429 day = 172.18

4687 day = 171.77

4899 day = 172.46

Brian Twomey

Upper most point at 113.97 to lowest at 98.51, mid point 106.24 and 109.58 at the 5Y average to 98.96 at the 10Y mid point is located at 104.27. At 106.00’s are 3 levels at 106.62, 106.20 and 106.18 then comes 105.40 and 104.10. Above, must breaks are located at 108.20, 109.58 and 109.78 while most vital in this list is 109.58 at the 5 year average. To see any chance higher, the special average at 109.78 must break and 109.58 and 109.78 overall provide massive resistance. Consistent to EUR/USD, averages in USD/JPY lack uniformity as crossovers occurred along the way in this 18 year view dated to Jan 1999.

At 106.00’s is 300 pips above from the 5 year average at 109.58 and 300 pips below to the 14 year average at 103.01. At 103, USD/JPY is massively oversold and at 109.58 reveals a downtrend underway. Shorter averages from 5 to 253 days reveal USD/JPY is massively oversold from 107.00’s to 111.00’s. Most oversold and at Richter Scale proportions is 109.00’s to 111.00’s.

Despite oversold and proximity to break points, USD/JPY inside price is fairly balanced as it relates to its averages and consistent with EUR/USD’s price to inform balanced trading rather than massive spikes especially as EUR/JPY from a monthly, 3 month and 1 year  perspective is positioned middle range to EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Further to positions, year 2007 is the point seen where EUR/JPY trades far to low in relation to USD/JPY and EUR/USD.

EUR/JPY at current  is a far to low price and must provide guidance. EUR/USD trades at upper range points to 1.2800’s while USD/JPY trades at bottom ranges. Addressed was a balance price in terms of averages but 106.27 at the close is at bottoms due to dangerously low.

80 day = 111.67

Special average = 109.78

335 day = 111.90

593 day = 111.31

848 day = 113.97

1103 day = 111.43

1279 day = 5Y = 109.58

1357 day = 108.20

Close 106.27

1614 day = 103.55

1873 day = 100.38

2130 day = 99.00

2385 day = 98.51

2562 day = 10Y= 98.96

2640 day = 99.29

2894 day = 101.00

3151 day = 102.26

3410 day = 102.67

3590 day = 14Y = 103.01

3667 day = 103.11

3922 day = 104.10

4175 day = 105.40

4429 day = 106.18

4687 day = 106.20

4899 day = 106.62

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD  still suffers from the 3000 pip Brexit drop yet GBP/USD retains its uniformity in all averages. From 1.2921 lows to average highs at 1.6412, mid point is located at 1.4665. From 1.2921 to the 5 year average at 1.4714, Mid point is located at 1.3817. The GBP/USD price is far to high from a short term trading perspective. Long term, GBP has potential to rise significantly. Rise significantly may require the BOE to raise Bank rate. But how high. As GBP remains low and at current levels, averages will drop significantly.

Lower for GBP/USD, must break 1.3710 while 1.4005 remains a crucial break. Above, 1.4597, 1.4714 and 1.4786 represent solid and tough levels to break.

80 day = 1.3549

Special Average = 1.3710

335 day = 1.2921

593 day = 1.3404

848 day = 1.4005

Close 1.4033

1103 day = 1.4597

1279 day = 5 Y = 1.4714

1357 day = 1.4786

1614 day = 1.4946

1873 day = 1.5097

2130 day = 1.5154

2385 day = 1.5185

2562 day = 10Y = 1.5462

2640 day = 1.5600

2894 day = 1.5970

3151 day = 1.6143

3410 day = 1.6319

3590 day = 14 Y = 1.6412

3667 day = 1.6438

3922 day = 1.6415

4175 day = 1.6316

4429 day = 1.6207

4687 day = 1.6165

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD lows at 1.1216 to highs at 1.2939, 1723 pips contains Mid point = 1.2077 and from 1.1216 to 1.2839 at the 10 year average mid point = 1.2027. EUR/USD closed at 1.2409 and 2 pips above the mid point from the 5 year average at 1.1975 to 10 year at 1.2839.

Vital to 1.2077 and 1.2027 is averages below at 1.2041 and 1.2080 then the 5 year average at 1.1975. This area at 1.2000’s are solid break points. Above, 1.2939 is most upper point at the 2894 day average. Exactly 6 averages exist in the 1.2800’s to include the most vital 10 year average at 1.2839. Current 1.2800’s and 1.2939 is upper range over a 14 year period dated to Jan 1999.

To see 1.3000’s envisioned by many banks then EUR/USD must break all 1.2800 averages as well as 1.2939. Don’t plan on 1.3000’s especially when 1.3000 lacks registration in the averages. View overall ranges as 1.2000’s to 1.2839 at the 10 year for roughly an 800 pip range.

For the week, most vital 1.2041, 1.2080, 1.2140, 1.2154, 1.2182, 1.2293, 1.2423, 1.2498, 1.2552, 1.2668, 1.2708 and 1.2839 for 798 pip range. Averages 100 day, 200 and 253 are overbought enough to consider shorts especially when EUR/USD trades at top range. For a lower EUR/USD then 1.2154 must break. EUR/USD longer term averages overall lack uniformity and explains wider EUR volatile movements. Lower averages 5 to 50 day are oversold.

80 day = 1.1984

Special average = 1.2154

335 day = 1.1311

593 day = 1.1216

848 day = 1.1266

1103 day = 1.1782

1279 day = 5Y = 1.1975

1357 = 1.2041

1614 day = 1.2182

Close 1.2409

1873 day = 1.2423

2130 day = 1.2552

2385 day = 1.2668

2640 day = 1.2892

2562 day = 10Y = 1.2839

2894 day = 1.2939

3151 day = 1.2891

3410 day = 1.2875

3590 day = 14Y = 1.2842

3667 day = 1.2829

3922 day = 1.2708

4175 day = 1.2498

Close 1.2409

4429 = 1.2293

4687 day = 1.2140

4899 day = 1.2080

Averages from 4175 to 4899 are misplaced averages.

Brian Twomey

Following are Moving averages 80 days to 4899 days and dates to Jan 1999. The noted point is my moving averages are far different than other MA’s as they were carefully chosen and designed for specific purposes. An example. A 100 day averages is actually an 80 day average and 80 days is the location where Forward exchange rate traders are selling Forwards. Forward exchange rate traders are the corporate guys. A 100 day average never reaches 100 days as its actually if memory serves,  75 to 85 day average. How about a 5 day average is actually a 5 day average only on Fridays. The list goes on. A 50 day average is 36 to 50. What is termed my special moving average is as the term states because it was specially designed after much research.

The overall AUD 14 year midpoint at 1345 pips is located at 0.8220 and from 0.7547 to 0.8126, the mid point is located at 0.7873. Note 0.7873 midpoint as well as MA’s at 0.7855 and 0.7851. From 0.7851 to 0.7873 represents vital breaks. From a 14 year perspective, the AUD price is extremely low. From a daily perspective, the AUD price is far to high. I know AUD, Australia and its history as well as its markets and I feel for AUD and Australia because its caught inside an uncertain world.

Most vital for the week, 0.7547, 0.7609, 0.7664, 0.7763, 0.7792, 0.7851, 0.7855, 0.7959, 0.7967, 0.8126, 0.8199, 0.8305 and 0.8328.

80 day = 0.7763

Special average = 0.7855

335 day = 0.7664,

593 day = 0.7547

848 day = 0.7609

Close 0.7907

1103 day = 0.7967

1279 day = 5Y average = 0.8199

1357 day = 0.8328

1614 day = 0.8643

1873 day = 0.8869

2130 day = 0.8892

2385 day = 0.8741

2562 day = 10Y average = 0.8756

2640 day = 0.8760

2894 day = 0.8710

3151 day = 0.8609

3410 day = 0.8537

3590 day = 14Y average = 0.8471

3667 day =0.8450

3922 = 0.8305

4175 day = 0.8126

4429 day = 0.7959

4687 day = 0.7851

4899 day = 0.7792 Jan 1999

Brian Twomey

15 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2003&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

19 Year to Feb 1999

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=1999&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

25 Year to Feb 1993,  USD/DEM, DEM/USD V CAD/ZAR

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=DEM&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=DEM&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=1993&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

30 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=DEM&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=DEM&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=1988&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

40 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=DEM&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=DEM&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=1978&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

50 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=DEM&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=DEM&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=1968&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

60 year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=DEM&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=DEM&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=1958&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

65 Years to Feb 1953

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=DEM&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=DEM&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=1953&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

Brian Twomey

3 momths

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=11&YYYY1=2017&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

6 months

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=08&YYYY1=2017&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

1 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2017&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

2 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2016&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

3 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2015&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

4 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2014&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

5 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2013&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

6 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2012&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

7 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2011&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

8 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2010&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

9 Year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2009&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

10 year

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison.php?C1a=EUR&C1b=USD&C2a=CAD&C2b=ZAR&C3a=USD&C3b=EUR&C4a=&C4b=&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&DD1=15&MM1=02&YYYY1=2008&C7a=&C8a=&C9a=&C10a=&C7b=&C8b=&C9b=&C10b=&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=15&MM2=02&YYYY2=2018&M=1&btnOK=Go%21

Brian Twomey

The common theme to currency market prices remains the relationship to either significant break points or breaks at longer term 5, 10 and 14 year averages. Association to break points explains current market volatility and as mentioned long before, volatility is here to stay for a while.

As market leader on the Non USD side, EUR/USD must break its falling line at 1.2129 to travel lower and EUR/USD for overall context trades between its 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 1.1978 and 1.2842. At 1.2842 is current location of the 10 and 14 year averages and overall a 900 pip range.

From 1.1978 and break points dated to Jan 1999, next points are located at 1.2043, 1.2079, 1.2139, 1.2186, 1.2129, then comes 1.2289, 1.2426, 1.2496, 1.2556 and 1.2669. Higher for EUR/USD would see wider ranges and more volatile movements.
What contains EUR/USD higher is most traded cross pair since year 2000 in EUR/JPY as it broke its most significant point at 133.91 and EUR/JPY must break this point to travel higher. From current 132.85, EUR/JPY broke its 14 and 5 year averages at 131.57 and 130.57 but remains above the 10 year at 126.08. The 10 year must break for significant period changes as EUR/USD remains below its 10 and USD/JPY trades above at 98.96.

From 126.08, the 14 year breaks points are located at 127.10, 127.44, 127.56, 128.33, 129.08, 129.50, 129.93, 130.48, 130.81, 131.08, 131.43, 131.46, 131.56. Massive resistance is located at 133.85 and significant break t 133.91. Why significant is due to next level at 134.08. Previous to the 133.91 break, EUR/JPY traded above every average from 1 to 14 years.

EUR/CHF from current 1.1527, must break 1.1583 to travel higher and target the 100 day at 1.1668. Massive resistance exists below at the 5 year average at 1.1415.

EUR/CAD from wildly overbought and current 1.5540, faces massive supports at 1.5216 and 1.5111. EUR/CAD trades above its 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 1.4541 (14), 1.4413 at the 5 year and 1.4357 at the 10 year. Good short in EUR/CAD.

EUR/NZD from current 1.6936 must break 1.6813 to travel lower or break 1.6952 to travel higher. The 5 year is located at 1.6004 and overall EUR/NZD price remains highly neutral in all its averages.

EUR/AUD from current 1.5701 and overbought must break 1.5443 and 1.5413 to travel lower. The 14 year average is located 1.5320 and 10 year at 1.4821.

EUR/GBP from current 0.881 must break 0.8853 and 0.8849 to travel lower. The 10 year is located at 0.8316.

EUR/USD remains below its 10 year average while above are EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP. Under performing EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD remains below.

EUR/USD not only trades far above its 5 year average but all respective cross pairs trade above 5 year averages.

Brian Twomey