Month: December 2018

From S & P’s close at 2621.75 and written in Feb 11 post, the bullet points:

1. Extreme prices located from 2698.59 to 2988.25 and top is 2900.00. 2. S& P’s in dire need of correction due to extreme overbought from 2509.25 and lower averages.

3. Most vulnerable to break lower is 2509.25 then 2319.33 and 2226.73. 4. Current averages Peaked, higher price not justified.

5.Most immediate targets are located at 2648.45, 2542.31, 2454.13, 2391.50, 2351.47, 2312.33, 2262.46 and 2213.65. The averages to watch and most vulnerable to breaks are at 2509.25 and 2319.33. 6. Averages to hold from correction 2319.33 and 2316.87.

Here’s the 2351.10 S & P’s at 600 points lower, 2319.00 held, correction occurred, target at 2351.47 correctly called.

Its customary for financial market prices especially currencies to trade to extremes as did the S& P’s to 2900’s. The current drop is the result of extreme overbought as the only direction was lower to unwind overbought.

Not sure bear market commentary is warranted and from where as the S&P’s were 61.13 in Jan 1974, and 672.14 March 2009 and topped at 2941.86 in November 2018.

From current 2351.10 next major lower points are located at 2337.06 then 2258.53 and 2157.49. Above 2432.11, 2595.37 and 2725.55.

Overall range 2337.06 and 2258.53 Vs 2725.55. The best target above 2725.55 is located at 2866.53 to inform 2900’s to 3100’s will severely struggle as severe overbought begins again and good sell points.

To break 2725.55 overall will require most extreme to positive USD news, S& P terrific earnings news and another rate hike may not see 2725 crack.

Current S & P’ at 2351.10 is oversold and targets are located at 2412.30, 2428.92, 2479.17, 2521.30, 2567.41, 2584.57 and 2631.57.

Targets inform 2595.37 represents a tough break and the only target available above is 2631.57 to mean 2725 holds.

Failure to break 2595.37 means good sell point then to target 2521.30, 2479.17, 2428.92 and 2412.38.
Targets inform 2337.06 holds and 2595 represents tough break point as a 200 point or so trading range may be the norm for the next months.

Not only do I forecast and correctly hit currency targets but over many years, targets were correctly forecast to interest rates, yields, oil, commodities. As long as a number is attached, I correctly call it and all profit. Contact for signals if interested.

Brian Twomey

26 Total Currency Pairs, 4 contain range problems CHF/JPY, CHF/SEK, CHF/SGD, CHF/THB yet SGD and THB contained problems as USD/SGD, USD/THB and EUR/SGD and EUR/THB. Break Points below

CHF/BRL 3.8872

CHF/CAD 1.3328

CHF/CNY 6.9122

CHF/CZK 22.7365

CHF/DKK 6.5709

CHF/EUR 0.8806

CHF/GBP 0.7847

CHF/HUF 284.5350

CHF/IDR 14700.8930

CHF/ILS 3.7346

CHF/INR 71.7979

CHF/JPY 113.5200 Problem

CHF/KRW 1132.0854

CHF/MXN 20.0623

CHF/MYR 4.1826

CHF/NOK 8.5090

CHF/NZD 1.4836

CHF/PHP 53.4395

CHF/PLN 3.7822

CHF/RON 4.0994

CHF/RUB 66.6290

CHF/SEK 9.0828

CHF/SGD 1.3807

CHF/THB 33.0387

CHF/TRY 5.4381

CHF/ZAR 14.2272

21 JPY emerging market currency pairs and 12 contain range problems while 3 pairs EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY exist in G10 and CAD/JPY is on the edge with USD/CAD’s rise today. Break Points below and problem highlighted.

BRL/JPY 29.2333

CNY/JPY 16.4266 Problem

CZK/JPY 4.9933 Problem

DKK/JPY 17.2768 Problem

HUF/JPY 0.3990

IDR/JPY 0.0077

ILS/JPY 30.4005

INR/JPY 1.5817

KRW/JPY 0.1002 Problem

MXN/JPY 5.6618

MYR/JPY 27.1426 Problem

NOK/JPY 13.3455

PHP/JPY 2.1246

PLN/JPY 30.0163 Problem

RON/JPY 27.6927 Problem

RUB/JPY 1.7044 Problem

SEK/JPY 12.4992

SGD/JPY 82.2189 Problem

THB/JPY 3.4360 Problem

TRY/JPY 21.0050 Problem

ZAR/JPY 7.9885

Problem Currency Pairs

USD/CAD V CAD/CHF CHF as protection

Ex. GBP/USD below 1.2983 price went missing to its normal averages.

Brexit failure and GBP/USD fall bottom was found at GBP/CHF 1.2818.

GBP/CHF as protection stopped the risk pair’s further drop.

Same principle as EUR/CHF stops EUR/USD, NZD/CHF stops NZD/USD, AUD/CHF stops AUD/USD. CAD/CHF stops USD/CAD.

Without GBP/CHF 1.2818, GBP/USD would fell far lower to its own 1.2600’s.

GBP/CHF message was no way GBP/USD to fall further. Self contained is currency markets, understood by few. USD/CAD last post spoke to 1.3232 as weekly short point.

Fully factored above 1.3232 was ironically 1.3301 at the upper most extreme. Extremely rare day for any currency pair to trade at uppermost maximum.

Weekly since February, yesterday was 1st time USD/CAD went to furthest extreme for example. More intense overall is USD/USD went missing above 1.3081.

CAD/CHF below 0.7606 was written 0.7548 as normal target , fully factored at 0.7519.

CAD/CHF traded to 0.7461 and 58 pips from 0.7519. Extraordinarily rare to see such a day especially from CHF. Adjustment strategy requires hurry to range views to find bottoms, tops, entry, targets. Why is because CAD/CHF below 0.7566 also went missing, dangerous situation. Certain areas, prices are untouchable.

Brian Twomey

Fed Funds Rate 1/92 to 10/18, or 26 years, Monthly averages 6.54 to 0.07, Mid 50% = 3.30, Current 2.25, So 26 years into Knut Wiksell’s 25 to 50 year neutrality Rate then 2.25 at 26 years is certainty low but not bad as we are on our way to normalization, no need to rush, let data decide. Trump is correct yet again, wait powell

EURIBOR, FED FUNDS 3 month and USD

Hoover after the 1929 crash positioned for the first time government fund itself in the short term. T Bills were born and the most vital 3 month interest rate, a rate adopted by every nation on the planet and remains most important today.

Euribor’s slash to 5 maturities from 8 raised the top maturity by a few points and by osmosis the 3 month rate followed. In the last 3 weeks, Euribor 3 month ranged from -316 to -0.320 but settled between -0.318 to -0.320 since Dec 3rd official ECB changes.

-0.318 to -0.320 means 0.682 to 0.68. A higher negative means a lower rate as for example -0.321 = 0.679. and -0.315 = 0.685 Alternative is USD 3 month range from 2.41 to current 2.45 and appears far from Euribor but taken both from total interest averages USD at 1.0027 Vs Europe at 1.0108 then the range is actually 81 points and on the high side by at least 10 points. Tomorrow’s trading, either USD rises or Europe drops but USD is the leader and it decides while Europe and all nations follow. Yield V Yields is an erroneous indicator.

USD based on 2.45 means USD currency pairs at 3 month. USD/JPY 113.69, USD/CNH 6.9257, USD/ZAR 14.3770, USD/CAD 1.3456, USD/PLN 3.8147, USD/CHF 0.9964 USD/SGD 1.3787 USD/MXN 20.3075, XAU/USD 1247.34 USD/ILS 3.7614

EURIBOR V USD Interest Rates

Yesterday Europe Interest rates 1.0108 Vs USD 1.0027, Today 1.0114 Europe Vs 1.0022 USD, or 92 points, up 9 points from yesterday. Europe rose 6 while USD dropped 5 points.

3 month Europe today -0.316 Vs USD 2.41, a meaningless spread, no help to exchange rates, interest rates or any financial market price.

Reported yesterday USD/JPY 113.69, held, USD/CAD 1.3456 held, XAU/USD broke 1247 to 1249 then dropped to 1242.

Its impossible for the 3 month interest rate to ever leave markets. Highlighted here is trade market prices, exchange rates and pure interest rates by understanding interest rates.

No other way exists for 1 and possibly 2 day trades than by interest rates.

EUR/USD for example contains 2 sides, EUR and USD. 2 ways to view this relationship, by Europe and USD interest rates or by pure USD interest rates alone since USD dominates all market prices, by all, this includes commodities, yields, stock markets. Interest rates offer targets, ranges and trade able levels in between. Far easier to understand interest rates and especially currency trades.

EURIBOR, USD, EUR and Draghi

1st lesson to exchange rate trading to yesterday’s 1.0114 and USD 1.0027 interest rates is day trade levels, ranges and targets were known 24 hours prior and no mysteries exist to today’s trade.

Draghi knows quite well today’s levels, ranges, targets. The EUR will trade to its levels, ranges and targets no matter what Draghi says. Draghi is especially irrelevant to longer term target trades. His words either allow trades to progress or hit targets or a currency pair trades against targets in which case, add a lot, wait to target but overall to add a lot means Draghi offered a market gift against extra profits.

EUR/USD is going miles higher, this we know. Sorry but Draghi’s self indulgent importance factors to irrelevance especially in these new days of controlled exchange rates by killing interest rates. Draghi can release bombshell news, still EUR may travel 100 pips and in 1 direction. I’ll demonstrate. EUR/USD bottoms 1.1306, 1.1307, 1.1313, Tops 1.1420, 1.1427 and 1.1433. Big break point 1.1457 for higher or big reverse. EUR/JPY Bottoms 128.28 and 128.36, Tops 129.59, 129.66, 129.73, Big break point for higher or reverse 128.97. EUR/AUD Bottoms. 1.5623 and 1.5633, Tops 1.5787, 1.5781, 1.5800. Big break Point 1.5778,

Euribor, USD, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Euribor today and next 24 hours 1.0115 Vs USD 1.0028. The comedy central of exchange rates not only continues but a reflection of new structural changes and here to stay since 2014 study and 2016 introduction. Note all trading life begins at parity.

As written much, forecasting and day trading became a new game as the old methods no longer counts. Trading platforms however can’t ever change as they are wired to interest rates.

Highlighted yesterday as EUR/USD and EUR cross pair ranges and all ranges held through draghi. Despite bombshell No QE, growth to the downside, EUR/USD ranged 60 pips and not even 1 direction. EUR/GBP roamed 50 pips.

What’s EUR/GBP , its USD/EUR or opposite pair to EUR/USD. Pre interest rate changes on Draghi remarks 100 to 150 pips.

Next 24 hours USD/EUR = 0.8764, 0.8783, 0.8797, 0.8820, 0.8834. Translated to EUR/USD = 1.1319, 1.1337, 1.1367, 1.1385, 1.1410. EUR/USD= set by ECB wide. 1.1222, 1.1289, 1.1294, 1.1415, 1.1483.

Translated to USD/EUR = 0.8911, 0.8858, 0.8854, 0.8760, 0.8709. EUR/USD break Point for higher, or reversal 1.1452. Do we now better understand exchange rates and trading. This not seen in print

Brian Twomey  Trades available contact [email protected]

12 Weekly Trades, see perfection to near perfection to entry, exit, target. Normally 2 way prices offered to allow continuous trades all week  but not this week as many prices are to low or to high. We trade for profit, not trade for gambles. Please visit trusted friend’s site at posy end. Brian Twomey, Contact for trades

The vast majority of writings over last months were posted on Linked IN to 2300 high quality followers and many many great topics on interest rates, trades, retail loses, interest rates as benchmarks to long term trades, USD V EUR deviation, Q Vs Q trades and Currency markets, ECB’s slash from 8 Euribor maturities to now 5 and implications, definition of a currency price, Fed Funds rate 25 year averages, Knut Wiksell Neutral interest rates.

The actionable and profitable money topics to markets and trades are many to bring a true comprehension to prices and present conditions must be addressed but me as a standalone doing my own research, can’t cover all the necessary topics. Today’s most ridiculous topic is inverted yield curves and recession ahead and wrong as usual to believe inverted when interest rate averages are well secured.

Then the question becomes why bother as traders, trade services and currency analysts devolved into a herd mentality. Analysis, trades and current market topics remain the same from person to person, bank to bank, trade service to trade service, website to website. I respect many at Fx street but contributor analysis and trades aren’t worth the paper its written on. Its the same old story, I’m a 1 man operation doing much work and its difficult to break through the crowds especially when we live on the assumptions goldman sachs says therefore its absolute.

Yet how useful is it to engage in such topics. Did any market topic, central bank meeting, economic announcement have any bearing on The EUR/AUD trade from 1.6300’s to 1.5600’s and a 2 month duration. This and many other longer term trades informs the market topics are the biggest crock of stuff ever foisted on the trading public. Now try and sell this concept to the trading public and most won’t bother reading.

So 2300 followers and 2000 + views now per writing, the result is more and more are flocking to my writings including banks and hedge funds I never knew existed, graduate students, professors, researchers.

The trade service is running and we are all very profitable week after week. Trades are now offered as daily, weekly and longer term, defined as 3 to 5 and 800+ pip trades. Many come and remain for long periods. Weekly trades are the standard 10 currency pairs, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF and GBP/CAD.

Included when ready were NZD/USD, NZD/CAD and others. Daily trades are sent twice daily and are interest rate based trades. Contact if interested,

Brian Twomey, btwomey.com, [email protected]