Month: May 2019

Total available pips 14 weeks 39,852 Vs Actual profit pips 18,279

Total available pips 14 week average 2845 vs Actual pip average 1363.

We profit on Average 1363 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. More Available Vs Actual is explained by Contingency Trades for trades at significant MA Break Points. Those Vital points may or may not break in any given week but we’re prepared.

Available Vs Actual Pips

3185 Vs 0

3317 Vs 1162

2988 Vs 126

2422 Vs 1979

2793 Vs 794

2740 Vs 957

2263 Vs 1033

3804 Vs 1127

3195 Vs 1700

2942 Vs 1962

2311 Vs 1979

2094 Vs 1800

2404 Vs 2592

3376 vs 1768

Brian Twomey

Market Movements daily and long term under any measure in this current and last 4th Quadrant of markets was cut by bout 1/3 since 2012 and since central banks adopted new Interest rate arrangements in 2015.

Central banks succeeded in stopping volatility as was the overall goal by re arranging interest rates.

Below are EURUSD averages 5 – 253 days for AUG 17, 2012, Feb 6, 2017 and today 5/28/19.

No difference in Average ranges in 2017 and 2019, both at 193 and 197 Vs 543 Pips in 2012.

Sure slight arguments to chosen dates but no argument to range compression.

8/ 17/2012

5 day =1.2311

10 = 1.2322

20 =1.2321

50 = 1.2312

100 = 1.2468

200 =1.2822

253 =1.2854 or 543 Pip Range

2/6./17

5 day =1.1179

10 = 1.1173

20 =1.1191

50 =1.1213

100 =1.1259

200 =1.1319

253 =1.1366 or 193 Pips Range

2/29/19 Today

5 day =1.1171

10 =1.1169

20 =1.1189

50 =1.1211

100 =1.1258

200 =1.1319

253 =1.1366 or 197 Pip Range

Brian Twomey

My trusted and long time friend, http://tantalumwatches.com  exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

Never ever forget my long time friend Peter Wadkins and now into year 47 in FX at the highest levels. https://invictusfx.com/author/pandt176/   Updates and writings should be on the way shortly.

3185 Available Pips, 22 Trades, 12 Currency Pairs.

EURCAD Poor performance was replaced by NZDJPY this week.

NZDCAD found no Trade thrills. Not sure permanent 12th Pair.

May use 12th as revolving to pick good weekly Trade and no marriage to just 1 currency pair. 

Available 3185 high, contingencies factored, 1/2 of 3185 = 1592 realistic.

Available from Average entry, Pips below

EURAUD 271

GBPUSD 301

GBPCHF 246

GBPJPY 383

GBPCAD 292

EURNZD 274

USDCAD 207

EURUSD 186

CADJPY 265

GBPAUD 245

GBPNZD 318

NZDJPY 200

Interested in Trades contact bria[email protected]. I don’t cater to everybody so come correct.

Brian Twomey

Total Available Pips 13 weeks 36,657 Vs Actual Profit Pips 18,279 Or 1/2.

Total Available Pips 13 Week average 2819 Vs Actual Pip Average 1460.

We profit on Average 1460 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. More Available Vs Actual is explained by Contingency Trades for trades at significant MA Break Points. Those Vital points may or may not break in any given week but we’re prepared.

Total Available Vs Actual

3317 Vs 1162

2988 Vs 136

2422 Vs 1979

2793 Vs 794

2740 Vs 957

2263 Vs 1033

3804 Vs 1127

3195 Vs 1700’s

2942 vs 1962

2311 Vs 1979

2094 Vs 1800’s

2404 Vs 2592

3376 Vs 1768

Interested in Trades then contact

Brian Twomey

FX Trade Results

3317 Available Pips, 12 Currency Pairs, 14 Trades, Actual Profit Pips 1162.

Currency prices Extraordinary uneven, non uniform, GPUSD and all GBP Cross pairs for example extreme oversold to more oversold extreme.

Trades were highly specific to entry and targets, many entry and targets fell short, this signifies how far off are Current prices.

Big winners GBPAUD GBPNZD and GBPJPY.

Entry and targets below.

GBPJPY 139.93, target 142.81, Actual 139.72 -141.72, +176 Pips. Trade done Tuesday. 143.49, Target 144.82, Not triggered.

GBPUSD 1.2714, Target 1.2939, Actual 1.2686 – 1.2811, +97 Pips. Done Tuesday.

GBPCHF 1.2850, Target 1.3007, Actual 1.2818 -1.2932, +82 Pips. 1.3053 target 1.3145 Not triggered. Done Tuesday.

GBPCAD 1.7113, Target 1.7309, Actual 1.7023 – 1.7179, +66 Pips. Sick Trade. Done Tuesday. 1.7359, Target 1.7456, Not triggered.

EURAUD 1.6233, 1.6260, Target 1.6101, Actual 1.6252 to 1.6101, +145 Pips. Complete Monday.

GBPAUD 1.8689, 1.8733, Target 1.8511, Actual 1.8612 -1.8511, +101. Short 1.8424, Target 1.8335, 1.8246. Actual 1.8424 – 1.8332, +89.

EURUSD 1.1137, 1.1154, Target 1.1223, Actual 1.1107 – 1.1205, From entry +68 Pips. 1.1258, Target 1.1350, Not triggered

EURNZD 1.7133, 1.7168, Target 1.6962, Actual 1.7197 -1.7102, +66 Pips

3317 Available, 12 Currency Pairs, 22 Trades.

The 3317 is 3rd highest in 12 weeks and matches 3376 from 12 weeks ago and 3804 in 6 weeks ago.

12 weeks equates to roughly 1 quarter, and 6 to 1/2 quarter. Weeks however different from actual trade days.

On 3804 profited 1127 weekly pips and 3376 profited 1768 pips.

Pips count high cause Trade Contingencies for break points must factor.

1/2 of 3317 =1685. Big week ahead, potential. Available Pips below

GBPJPY 421

GBPUSD 277

GBPCHF 279

GBPCAD 293

EURAUD 132

EURUSD 178

EURNZD 345

GBPAUD 400

USDCAD 281

CADJPY 258

GBPNZD 415

EURCAD 38

Interested in weekly trades then contact. Come sincere to profit and maybe learn, and I assist. Come expecting to become Warren Buffet overnight, No chance. Come as a big mouth “I know everything” as twitter, fxstreet or Linked In participants then no chance. This is a service to assist traders only rather than a trade service open to anybody. 16 years of trading and intense research were devoted to growing accounts and models factored to profit. Rather than spend my remaining years on the French Riviera, I opened to assist interested traders.

Brian Twomey

Total Available Pips 12 weeks 33,340 Vs Actual 17,117

Total Available Pips 12 week average 2777 Vs Actual Pip Average 1485

We profit 1485 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs.

Total Available Vs Actual 12 Weeks

2988 Vs 136

2422 Vs 1979

2793 Vs 794

2740 Vs 957

2263 Vs 1033

3804 Vs 1127

3195 Vs 1700’s

2942 Vs 1962

2311 vs 1979

2094 Vs 1800’s

2404 Vs 2592

3376 vs 1768

Brian Twomey

2988 Available Pips, 23 trades, 12 Currency Pairs.

Prices this week Traded to Mathematical extremes, not often seen nor factored as normal Price Trading is always the norm.

Was Caught rare day, by 3 Pairs, GBPJPY, EURAUD and GBPUSD for -600 pips while 9 pairs resulted in Good gains.

Minus 600 results in + 136 weekly pips. Rare day but respect to overall, it reports.

Longs added to GBPUSD, GBPJPY and shorts to EURAUD, hold to target.

GBPJPY 142.92, Target 144.52, Actual 139.89 -142.85. -200, added, ongoing target.

CADJPY 81.52, Target 82.81, Actual 80.95 -81.96. +44 pips. 83.01, Target 84.09, not triggered.

EURAUD 1.6051, Target 1.5949, Actual 1.6038 -1.6250, -199 added, Ongoing target. 1.5924, Target 1.5822, Not triggered.

GBPAUD 1.8665, 1.8710, Target 1.8434, Actual 1.8714 -1.8506, +204 pips ongoing target. 1.8399, target 1.8221, Not triggered.

EURNZD 1.7075, Target 1.6884. Actual 1.7114 -1.7006, +45 ongoing target. 1.6839, Target 1.6721, Not triggered.

GBPUSD 1.2932, 1.2958, Target 1.2995, Actual 1.3040 -1.2753. Minus 200 Pips. 1.3016, Target 1.3121, Not triggered.

EURUSD 1.1122, 1.1158, Target 1.1235. Actual 1.1262 -1.1159. Not triggered. 1.1266, target 1.1350, not triggered.

GBPNZD 1.9784, 1.9839, Target 1.9569, Actual 1.9804 – 1.9489, +235 Pips.

In 1934, under the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Treasury International Capital was implemented to provide data on the United States’ International Portfolio Investment and Capital Movements, known today as TIC. The data was collected and reported by various agencies over the years, such as the Bureau of Economic Administration and the census, but problems arose due to a lack of interaction between agencies.

Problems existed with the type and quality of information in the early years, so the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards coordinated statistical efforts across agencies and it ran smoothly for many decades. When the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards lost its role in the 1980’s, Treasury took over the functions of collecting and reporting.

In 1983, after many years of negotiation, the Treasury agreed that the Fed was entitled to have access to TIC data. Thanks to better coordination between the two agencies, TIC data is now collected and quite accurately reported on a monthly and quarterly basis. The reason for this stems from the world crisis due to the Asian currency devaluation. These events caught the world off guard and alerted all nations that a better reporting system was needed.

Since 1974, and the TIC system redesign in 1978, TIC data has been collected and reported every five years and has only covered certain types of securities transactions. Only in the past 10 years has this data been reported on a quarterly then monthly basis. But the collection and types of data didn’t come without problems.

Reporting Problems and Solutions

Currency transactions were never a factor in the early reporting of transactions. Traditionally, when $10,000 entered or left the United States, a Currency and Monetary Instruments Report was filed with customs. But this reporting never reflected TIC data. Today, dollar values as well as currency claims and liabilities of transactions are accurately reported thanks to easy computer transmission and accountability. This began in March 2003 to answer questions like: how does a trading firm incorporated in the United States handle transactions to and from the London office? What if that transaction resulted in a gain or loss, or what if those monies sat idle in an overseas bank account? What if a bank wrote off a bad loan? These are all now fully reflected in the TIC reports.

TIC data is the collection and reporting of purchases and sales of U.S. securities and financial instruments by institutions, governments, central banks, corporations and many other entities. In earlier days, the U.S. was only concerned with reporting and collection of long-term government securities. Now the focus concerns all transactions, short and long term, such as stocks, derivatives, currencies, options, forwards and swaps as well as bank transactions and any cross-border transactions. The purpose is twofold: to report cross-border portfolio positions of nations, central bankers, corporations and other entities, and to determine dollar values that enter and exit the U.S. This is conducted for purposes of accountability and is important for monetary policy purposes. Data is used to determine balance of payments and international policy, and to track international financial markets. The balance of payments is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly, in three sections: current account, capital account and financial account. The balance of payments is the debits and credits of the flow of funds into and out of the U.S.

In 1974, overall ownership of securities by foreigners was 4.8 %, 13.5 % by 2003, while U.S. Treasuries accounted for 14.7 % in 1974 and 45.5 % by 2003. These numbers account for dispersions rather than concentrations by any one nation. Yet these numbers have dramatically increased since 2003 with nation-specific concentrations since part of modern day reporting is nation specific. Since September 2009, China held $798.9 billion in U.S. Government debt, up from $618.2 billion in September 2008. The next largest holder of US debt was Japan which held $617.2 billion in September 2008 and $751 billion in September 2009. Great Britain was third, but didn’t come near these totals.

The monthly TIC data is distinguished by Treasury’s TIC B Reports and the Federal Reserve’s S reports. BQ reports are Treasury’s quarterly reports and FR or FF belong to the Federal Reserve for quarterly reporting purposes. Each will be handled and explained separately with explanation of changes along the historic journey.

Treasury’s BL1 reports dollar-denominated liabilities to foreigners, and excludes short-term instruments. BL2 reports dollar-denominated liabilities from foreigners, and includes longer-term instruments. Institutions refer to depository, bank holding companies, financial holding companies, brokers and dealers. Foreign institutions refer to central banks, ministries of finance, Treasuries, diplomatic establishments, international and regional organizations. FR 2050 is a weekly report of eurodollar liabilities held in foreign offices of U.S. banks. FFIEC 002 stands for Federal Financial Institutions Examinations Council Agency, and reports assets and liabilities of U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. They collect balance and off balance sheet information. FFIEC 019- county exposure report for US branches and agencies of foreign banks. This information is collected nation by nation. FR 2644 is a weekly report that collects information on borrowings, loans, deposits and selected balance sheet items.

FRY-7N U.S. reports non-bank subsidiaries held by foreign banking organizations. FRY-7Q capital and asset report for foreign banking organizations. These reports are compiled by the International Reports Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and reported on TIC D forms, which also cover derivatives. The derivatives market had a notional value of $87 billion in 1998 to $454 trillion in June 2006, measured in payments. Measured by market value, it has a value of $3 trillion in June 1998 to $10 trillion in June 2006. Since 2007, derivatives data was reported in TIC data on TIC form D. Federal Reserve S forms for monthly data are U.S. entities that buy or sell long-term securities directly from or to foreigners.

Quarterly reports are represented by forms BQ2, foreign currency liabilities and claims of depository institutions, and part two, customer’s foreign currency liabilities to foreigners. BQ3 reports maturities of selected liabilities of depository institutions and bank holding companies to foreigners. FR2502a reports assets and liabilities of large foreign offices of US banks. Monthly TIC data reports can be looked upon as rollovers leading into the quarterly and semi-annual reports. Monthly and quarterly reports are released by the Treasury and found in detail on the Treasury’s website.

Brian Twomey

FX This Week

2988 Available Pips, 23 Trades, 12 Currency Pairs, fairly balanced week at an overall average of 249 pips per Currency Pair.

EURNZD high side at 309 Pips, while EURCAD remains dead at 70,

GBPCHF high side at 359 Pips.

Favored Pair: GBPJPY.

The lineup: Pips per Pair Available.

GBPJPY 230 Available Pips

CADJPY 237 Available Pips

EURAUD 204 Available Pips

GBPAUD 454 Available Pips

EURNZD 309 Available Pips

GBPUSD 168 Available Pips

EURUSD 179 Available Pips

GBPNZD 245 Available Pips.

USDCAD 271 Available Pips

GBPCAD 262 Available Pips

GBPCHF 359 Available Pips

EURCAD 70 Available pips

Brian Twomey

Total Available Pips 11 Weeks = 30,352 Vs Actual Pips = 16,981

Total Available Pips 11 Week Average = 2758.54 Vs Actual Pip Average 1544.63

We Profit on Average 1544 Pips per week on 12 Currency Pairs. We Capture and profit at least 50% of all Traded Pips on 12 Currency Pairs.

Total Available Vs Actual 11 Weeks

2422 Vs 1979

2793 V 794

2740 Vs 957

2263 Vs 1033

3804 V 1127

3195 Vs 1700’s

2942 V 1962

2311 Vs 1979

2094 Vs 1800’s

2404 Vs 2592

3376 Vs 1768

Brian Twomey

This article was written by me, Brian Twomey in 2009,  thought reader interest today
Yield curves can have dramatic effects on the US overall.

-----------------------10 (number of days in the month until the next meeting) x1.00 (rate) + 20 (number of days left in the month) x 1.25(expected rate/31 days left in the month) = 0.16 A December fed funds contract priced at 98.99 for animplied yield of 1.01. So (1.01 - 1.0) (1.16 - 1.0) = 0.16 ------------------------

Hello to inquiries for weekly and long term trades, Please contact by e mail [email protected] and glad to assist all inquiries. Brian Twomey

Total Available Pips 10 weeks 27,930 Vs Actual Profit Pips 15,702.

Total Available 10 Week Average 2792.2 Vs Actual Profit Pips 1568

We Profit on average 1568 pips per week on 12 Currency Pairs. We capture and profit at least 50 % of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs.

Total Available Vs Actual

2793 Vs 794 Pips

2740 Vs 957

2263 Vs 1033

3804 Vs 1127

3195 Vs 1700

2942 Vs 1962

2311 Vs 1979

2094 Vs 1800

2404 Vs 2592

3376 vs 1768

= 2792 week average Vs 1568 actual per week average

Brian Twomey

FX Trade Results

2793 Available Pips, Actual 794 as 3 Trades in 145 Pips negative

GBPNZD GBPCHF  and GBPAUD but Ongoing to Target.

All missed Trade Instruction entry by 100 ish Pips however missed entry was opportunity to add 1 lot.. Per week at 794 will run higher by end Friday Trade.

Last 4 weeks, per week actual very low compared to first 5 weeks.

EURUSD 1.1120, Target 1.1268, Actual 1.1144 -1.1264, +120 Pips. 1.1287, Target 1.1324, not triggered.

GBPUSD 1.2889, 1.2859, Target 1.2983, Actual 1.2906 -1.2983, +77,

1.3007, target 1.3125, Actual 1.3007 – 1.3102, +95. Total 172 Pips.

GBPJPY 143.92, 143.65, Target 144.73, Actual 144.03 -144.73, +70.

145.01, Target 146.06, Actual 145.01 -145.87, +86. Total 156.

GBPCHF 1.3220, Target 1.3106, Actual 1.3307 -1.3256, Entry miss 107 pips, Runs -36 Pips. Hold to Target.

1.3078, Target 1.2962, Not triggered.

USDCAD 1.3494, 1.3531, target 1.3371, Actual 1.3480 -1.3378, +102 Pips.

1.3344, Target 1.3230, Not triggered.

CADJPY 82.68, 82.47, target 83.39, Actual 82.58 -83.39, +81.

83.54, Target 84.38 Not triggered.

GBPAUD 1.8517, Target 1.8310, Actual 1.8657 -1.8550, a 140 pips Entry miss, opportunity to add 1 lot, runs -33 Pips, Hold to target

1.8283, target 1.8049 Not triggered

GBPCAD 1.7547, 1.7578, target 1.7390, Actual 1.7578 -1.7296, +82 Ongoing to target

EURAUD 1.5954, target 1.5886, Actual 1.5993 – 1.5940, Trade runs+14, Hold to target

1.5865, Target 1.5774, Not triggered

EURCAD 1.4960, target 1.5058, Actual 1.4993 -1.5058, +65 Pips.

1.5062, target 1.5096, +34. Total 99.

EURNZD 1.6608, 1.6637, Target 1.6722 Not triggered.

1.6780, Target 1.6893, Actual 1.6780 -1.6930, +113 on instruction.

GBPNZD 1.9570, Target 1.9384, Actual 1.9731 -1.9646, Miss entry 161, Trade runs -76 pips. Rare day. Add lot, hold to Target.

1.9337, Target 1.9160, Not triggered.

Brian Twomey