Month: July 2019

Fully confident in Trading abilities, 17 Currency Pair Trades to include exact entries and targets posted this week. A multi year goal was forecast perfectly all 28 Currency pair entry and targets but weekend time failed to permit the enormous time and calculations to factor all 28.

Below are trade results per currency pair, pip counts, entries, targets and weekly ranges. This serves to answer how good were the trades. Normal weeks are issued 2 way trades however this week offered only 1 way trades in trend direction. Pip counts factored based on entry instruction. Personal interest is trade performance, accuracy and models rather than pip counts. Failure to achieve full targets saw failed at reported “Must Cross” Points.

Overall Highlights

9 of 17 Currency trades achieved perfect to near perfect targets. All entries were perfect to near perfect except EURUSD and off 50 ish Pips for GBPNZD. EUR/USD recovered to week near entry with a 4 pip loss. No losses were seen all week except EURUSD.
Long time followers would automatically know from past experience, off entry against a known target means add 1 lot to trade to target, small profit or break even. Only EUR/AUD and USD/CAD went beyond weekly target.

CADJ/PY and NZD/JPY hardly participated in this week’s trades. USD/CAD and USD/JPY achieved perfect targets but 20 ish pip miss on entry. The commonality to missed entry was 20 ish pips.

The Trades

GBP/AUD Entry 1.7721, 1.7697 to target 1.7942. Weekly Range 1.7671 – 1.7983. From 1.7697 entry to 1.7942 target +245 Pips.

EUR/AUD Entry 1.5904, 1.5868 to target 1.6012. Weekly range 1.5895 – 1.6090. From 1.5904 entry to 1.6012 target +108 Pips.

GBP/NZD. Entry 1.8461, 1.8428 to target 1.8727. Weekly range 1.8368 to 1.8722. From 1.8428 to 1.8722 + 294 Pips.

USD/CAD. Entry 1.2959, 1.3017 to target 1.3133. Weekly range 1.3039 to 1.3184. From 1.3039 to 1.3133 + 94 pips. Questionable to count overall on 22 pip miss.

AUD/USD. Entry 0.7117 to target 0.6977. Weekly range 0.7055 to 0.6926. From 0.7117 to 0.6977 +39 pips.

EUR/NZD. Entry 1.6576, 1.6550 to target 1.6786. Weekly range 1.6527 to 1.6764. from 1.6550 to target 1.6764 + 214 pips.

NZD/USD. Entry 0.6772 to target 0.6709. Weekly range 0.6786 to 0.6640. From 0.6772 to target 0.6709 + 63 pips.

EUR/CHF. Entry 1.0000 , 1.0990 to target 1.1127, Weekly Range 1.,0962 to 1.1054. From 1.0990 to 1.1054 + 64 pips.

EUR/JPY. Entry 120.64, 120.31 to target 121.93. Weekly range 120.07 to 121.37. From 120.31 to 121.37 +106 Pips.

USD/JPY. Entry 107.46, 107.23 to target 108.39. Weekly range 107.70 to 108.74. From 107.70 to 108.39 target +69 pips. Missed entry 24 pips.

GBP/USD. Entry 1.2453, 1.2412 to target 1.2610. Weekly range 1.2417 to 1.2522. From 1.2417 to 1.2522 +105 pips.

GBP/JPY. Entry 134.49, 134.13 to target 136.35. Weekly range 134.26 to 135.67. from 134.26 to 135.67 +141 pips.

EUR/USD. Entry 1.1205, 1.1191 to target 1.1254. Weekly range 1.1101 to 1.1187. Entry 1.1191 recovered to 1.1187. Terrible trade.

GBP/CHF. Entry 1.2235, 1.2206 to target 1.2440. Weekly range 1.2224 to 1.2368. from 1.2224 to 1.2368 = 144 pips.

GBPCAD. Entry 1.6296, 1.6273 to target 1.6521. Weekly range 1.6257 to 1.6441. From 1.6273 to 1.6441 +168 pips.

NZD/JPY. Entry 71.49, 71.27 to target 72.42. Not traded. Entry 72.81 to target 73.88. Weekly Range 73.24 to 72.18.

CAD/JPY. Entry 81.96, 81.79 to target 82.33. Not traded. Entry 82.51 to target 83.21. The weekly pivot point to trade was 82.51.

15 currency pairs participated in this week’s trades. To exit at target, at market high or lows or Must Cross Points accounts for 15 trades at 1735 pips.

1st and last time shot. Time didn’t permit all 28 currency pairs otherwise, I would’ve posted. For trades [email protected]

NZD/USD Short 0.6772 to target 0.6709. Must cross 0.6730. Long term target 0.6882. Trade =63 pips.

AUD/USD Short 0.7085 to target 0.7027. Must cross 0.7056. Short below 0.7117 to target 0.6978. Trade =58 pips

EUR/CHF Long 1.000 and 1.0990 to target 1.1127. Must cross 1.1085. Long above 1.1170 to target 1.1212. Long term target 1.1252.

EUR/JPY Long 120.64 and 120.31 to target 121.93. Must cross 121.29 and 121.61. Long term target 124.99.

USD/JPY Long 107.46 and 107.23 to target 108.39. Must cross 107.93. Long term target 110.10.

EUR/NZD. 1.6839, above targets 1.6944 and 1.7049.

Strategy. Long 1.6576 and 1.6550 if seen to target 1.6786. Must cross 1.6629 and 1.6734. Weekly strategy.

GBP/NZD. 1.8927, above targets 1.9193 and 1.9459.

Strategy. Long 1.8461 and 1.8428 if seen to target 1.8727. Must cross 1.8561, 1.8661 and 1.8694. Weekly strategy.

EUR/AUD. 1.6049, below targets 1.5832 and 1.5724.

Strategy. Long 1.5904 and 1.5868 if seen to target 1.6012. Must cross 1.5940 and 1.5976. Long above 1.6048 to target 1.6120.     Must cross 1.6084. Short only strategy.

GBP/USD.  1.2658, above targets 1.2765, 1.2822, 1.2988 and 1.3150. Long term 1.3700’s.

Strategy. Long 1.2453 and 1.2412 if seen to target 1.2610. Must cross 1.2494 and 1.2552. Long above 1.2658 to target 1.2699.  Long only strategy.

GBP/JPY. Break Point 137.82, above targets 140.75, 143.68 and eventual 147.00’s.

Strategy. Long 134.49 and 134.13 to target 136.35. Must cross 134.88 and 135.61. Long only strategy.

EUR/USD. Break  1.1261, above targets 1.1317 and massive lines at 1.1358 and 1.1384.

Strategy. Long 1.1205 and 1.1191 to target 1.1254. Must cross 1.1233. Long above 1.1261 to target 1.1317. Must cross 1.1289. Long only strategy.

GBP/CHF. Break  1.2557, above targets 1.2791, 1.3025 and eventual 1.3200’s.

Strategy. Long 1.2235 and 1.2206 if seen to target 1.2440. Must Cross 1.2323 and 1.2382. Long only strategy.

USD/CAD. Break 1.3192, above targets 1.3307, below targets 1.2959 and 1.2843.

Strategy. Long 1.3017 and 1.2959 to target 1.3133. Must cross 1.3075. Long if seen above 1.3191 to target 1.3249. Short only strategy.

GBP/CAD. Break 1.6701, above targets 1.7061.

Strategy. Long 1.6296 and 1.6273 if seen to target 1.6521. Must cross 1.6341 and 1.6431. Long only strategy.

NZD/JPY. Break 72.81, above targets 73.66 and eventual 75.29.

Strategy. Long 71.49 and 71.27 to target 72.42. Must cross 71.93 and 72.37. Long above 72.81 to target 73.88. Must cross 73.24. Long only strategy.

CAD/JPY. Break  82.51, above targets 83.21, 83.58 and eventual 85.00’s.

Strategy. Long 81.96 and 81.79 to target 82.33. Must cross 82.15. Long above 82.51 to target 83.21. Must cross 82.86. Long only strategy.

GBP/AUD. 1.8039, above targets 1.8234.

Strategy. Long 1.7721 and 1.7697 to target 1.7942. Must cross 1.7844 and 1.7892. Weekly strategy.

For institutional FX, Metals and indices traders, a no frills platform, located in  London beside the BOE

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One time shot to earn 886 weekly pips. For trades contact [email protected]

The JPY pairs to trade in order for maximum trade pips are as follows: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Following are 7 weekly trades, 7 entries, 7 targets. Brief trade methodologies are offered as well as longer term targets for traders interested in longer term hold periods. As usual no charts, graphs nor stops needed and no reference to the latest market talk which serves no purpose to price trading except to talk.

USD/JPY offers practically nothing to all JPY cross pairs because on its own, it lacks range. Absolute bottom is located at 106.02, up 83 pips from last July at 105.19.

The weekly break point for higher /lower is located at 109.01, above targets 109.93 then 110.10. Massive resistance is located at 110.28, 110.40 and 110.85.

Long 107.40 and 107.17 to target 108.73. USD/JPY must cross higher 108.09 and 108.45. Longer term target 110.10. Trade 107.40 to 108.73 contains 135 pips.

GBP/JPY. Long 135.42 and 135.12 if seen to target 137.77. Must cross 135.72 and 136.74. This trade contains 235 pips yet long for 235 pips is minuscule in relation to the 147.00 longer term target. Brexit severely holds GBP/JPY and all GBP pairs from much higher levels.

EUR/JPY. January Flash Crash lows, 118.00’s, Closed 121.58, Break Point 122.91. Target 124.88, Massive Brick Walls 125.72 and many 126.00’s. Won’t break anytime soon. Long only strategy to 124, deeply oversold.

Long 121.10 to target 122.50. Must cross to target 121.71 and 122.10. Longer term target above 122.91 is located at 124.88.

EUR/JPY must and will trade to 124.88.This trade contains 140 pips.

AUD/JPY. Long 75.24 and 74.94 to target 76.06. Must cross to target 75.24 and 75.80. Above 76.37 targets 77.49. Longer term target 81.27. This trade contains 82 pips.

NZD/JPY. Long 71.38 and 71.13 if seen to target 72.39. Must cross 71.64 and 72.14. Long above 72.64 to target 73.63. Must cross 73.13. This trade contains 101 pips.

CHF/JPY. Absolute bottom is located at 106.03.

Long 109.35 and 109.12 to target 109.61. Must cross to target 109.35 and 109.57. Above 109.80 targets 110.24. This trade contains 40 pips from 109.12.

CAD/JPY. Long 81.81 to target 82.46. Must cross 82.04 and 82.26. Long above 82.49 to target 83.37. Must cross 82.93 and 83.15. Longer term target 85.00’s. This trade contains 65 and 88 pips.

Overall trade result is 886 pips.

Brian Twomey

Actual profit Pips = 24,832

Actual Pip Profit weekly Average 1251

We profit on Average 1251 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. See 2 weeks ago in weekly post for Math based on 50% Traded pips.

Weekly Pip Totals 19 Weeks

942

869

911

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 =1251

Brian Twomey

On year 3 year of the Brexit anniversary asks the question how devastating was the GBP fall. The analytical answer must view in the context of the 2500 pip parameter for the most widely traded exchange rate combinations of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY from 2000 -2008 and 2008 – 2015.

A 2500 pip move in any direction was met not only by a brick wall of resistance but a large correction was the only alternative for a long period of time until or unless the parameter walls moved to allow a further continuation past the 2500 inflection point. GBP/USD however due to its wider ranges is afforded nearly a 3000 pip parameter yet 2500 generally serves its purpose to comply with corresponding non GBP currency pairs.

GBP/USD fell from 1.5000’s -1.1800’s or roughly a 3200 pip move and now sits at 1.2500’s. The 66 year historical context to 1.2500’s dating to 1953 is 1.2500 is a non existent price and never before seen except for the August 1984 -May 1985 Plaza Accords when the G5 nations engineered USD higher. GBP/USD traded then 1.04 lows to 1.1900 highs. Subtract the Plaza Accords equation then 1.2500’s now trades in uncharted territory.

From the 2008 crash highs at 1.8891 to 1.2513 lows, the 11 year mid point is located at 1.5702. The 66 year mid point from 2.8151 -1.0438 lows is located at 1.9294. From the 1972 free float from 2.6189 -1.2513 lows, the mid point is located at 1.9351.

The BOE’s 21 year governing interest rate, Sonia, traded 4.9970 at the 2008 crash and dropped to 0.4099 April 2009 and its 11 year mid point is located at 2.70. From April 2009 -June 2016, Sonia monthly averages reported a paltry range from 0.4099 – 0.5486 for a 0.4792 mid point. Upon the Brexit announcement, Sonia dropped from 0.4598 highs -0.2106 lows for a 0.3352 mid point. Sonia now trades since September 2018 at 0.70 and hardly moves from its 0.70 base and 0.70 is a long way from the 21 year mid point at 3.88.

How devastating was Brexit is explained by GBP/USD, Sonia and headline interest rates trade at historic lows never before seen in the UK’s rich and glorious history.

Forecasts

GBP/USD to reach a fraction of normalization must trade to a minimum of 1.2900’s against a longer term target at 1.3600’s. The governing average today is located at 1.4700’s and 1.5200’s 1 year ago. Currently 1.2500’s is deeply oversold. We’re looking at absolute bottoms at the 1.2300 -1.2400 vicinity.

GBP/AUD trades below its vital break point average at 1.8500’s but at 1.7900’s faces its range low point at 1.7400’s. GBP/AUD is a range currency pair for the most part but afforded wide latitude within its ranges and once traded 1976 lows at 1.2700’s but lived the majority of its 66 year history at 2.000;s.

GBP/JPY must trade to its minimum normalization point at 142.00’s and 143.00’s against its long term target at 147.00’s. Historical 66 year first ever lows were seen in 2011 -2012 from 117.00’s -126.00’s.

GBP/NZD must trade to ts minimum normalization point at 1.9300’s. GBP/NZD at 1.8800’s is the result of the 1300 pip drop from 2.0100’s. At 1.9300’s is fairly respectable for GBP/NZD.

GBP/CAD must trade to 1.7100’s just to reach a respectable normalization. GBP/CAD’s 66 year history traded 2011 -2013 lows from 1.5200’s to 1.6400’s. At current 1.6300’s, GBP/CAD trade its post crash lows.

GBP/CHF must trade to 1.2800’s against a longer term target at 1.3200’s. At 1.2300’s, GBP/CHF trades in uncharted territory in relation to its 66 year history which began at 11.0000’s and 12.000’s. Only one time, Oct 2010, GBP/CHF closed at 1.2100’s. In 66 years, GBPCHF downtrend has been slow and steady and now trades at its lowest ever seen points. Brexit allowed a continuation to the downtrend.

Brian Twomey

Actual profit Pips = 23,890

Actual Pip profit Weekly Average =1268 Pips

We profit on Average 1268 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. See last weekly post for Math based on 50% Traded pips.

Weekly Pips totals 18 weeks

869

911,

1450,

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 = 1268

Brian Twomey    [email protected]

Previous comments to ECB comatose was incredibly wrong because EURUSD and ECB context to create characteristically a permanent Neutral Currency was missed. Yet neutrality is performed daily through non move able interest rates.

I desperately desired to state in my article the ECB is more interested in EUR neutrality rather than its price, or new highs and lows but my article was sent to fxstreet. And we all know what fxstreet primitive collusion delusion is all about.

The EUR neutrality is permanent and won’t ever leave its Neutral created foundations. New highs and lows are seen only in the context of neutrality, EUR price position and where neutral position began is paramount to trade EUR and all EUR pairs.

Ex. 1.1411 was a new high but it ended a 5 day daily run. Daily prices today operate on a 5 day up and down scale as opposed to 14 and 17 days pre 2016 and ECB new interest rate scheme.

1.1411 contained no meaning as it occurred on the 5th up day. Smart ECB‘s 5 year plan since 2014. 1. Go negative Interest rates 2. 2016 Redesign interest rates 3. Maintain neutral but shorten trading Ranges.

The message was EUR lower for longer yet the ECB gave EUR its funeral and sent it to its proper resting place. To Trade EUR properly is imperative to understand how and why neutrality operates with all EUR pairs price context.

Brian Twomey