Weekly Trade Results and Strategy: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/CHF

EUR/USD

Short 1.1126 and 1.1158 to target 1.1024

Highs 1.1105, Lows 1.1010,

trade +81 pips from 1.1105 to 1.1024.

2nd leg Short 1.0997 to target 1.0866.

Why exit, Gray area to MA’s, untouchable from 1.1024 to 1.0997. Trade risk is either EUR/USD bounces to short at higher levels or 1.0997 breaks to allow shorts to target 1.0866. 

Actual break today 1.0992. Averages moved from 1.0997 to 1.0992.

USD/JPY

Long 107.32 to target 108.36.

Lows 107.33 Perfect, Highs 108.27

trade +94 pips  although 108.36 traded perfectly. 

2nd Leg. Long above 108.78 to target 109.82

AUD/CHF

Long 0.5845 and 0.5803 to target 0.6103

Lows 0.5846 Perfect, Highs 0.5966

Trade Runs +120 Pips,

Long way to target

See problem Pair GBPCAD

Here’s the daily trade strategy for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

EUR/USD must break 1.0992 and USD/JPY 108.86. The daily trade strategy by interest rates answers how far will prices travel if and when breaks at 1.0992 and 108.86. Daily trade strategy is the benchmark to weekly trade target for EUR/USD 1.0866 and

For EUR/USD long at bottom levels and long at upper levels for USD/JPY.

EUR/USD

Most Important 1.0971 and 1.0989 Vs 1.1014, 1.1021, 1.1028, 1.1035, 1.1049, 1.1056 and 1.1063

Bottom. 1.0951 achieves by 1.0979 and 1.0964
Upper target 1.1063
 Continuation Fail 1.1035
 Break Point 1.0992
EUR/USD informs 1.0866 won’t trade today. 2 choices: either hold to target 1.0866 or trade a daily trade for extra weekly pips
                 USD/JPY
 Most Important 107.96 and 108.14 Vs 108.38, 108.45, 108.52, 108.59, 108.73, 108.79 and 108.87
 Bottom. 107.77 achieves by 108.04 and 107.91
 Upper target 108.87
 Continuation Fail 108.59
 Break Point 108.86
For USD/JPY 108.86 won’t break today. Strategy is short tops and long bottoms for extra weekly pips.
Trade end yesterday despite +175 pips forced the trade to wait upon breaks at 108.78 or 1.0992. Or wait upon bounces higher.for EUR/USD  to short and lower for USD/JPY to long.
Both GBP/CAD and AUDCHF remains. GBP/CAD was forced to add 1 lot. The trade either profits or break even.
  Brian Twomey

 

 

Weekly Trades; EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/CAD, AUD/CHF

As mentioned in last week’s trade post, ranges for all currency pairs expanded and allowed far distant targets to achieve destinations. More of the same to wide ranges will trade this week to again offer terrific profit opportunities.

Approximately 4 more weeks remain to wide ranges and affects all currency pairs as markets trade to normalized prices. Wide ranges means the current trading environment is the best opportunity in 2 years to profit easily from practically any pair chosen. The next 2 year cycle to experience easy trades to the current degree is 2022.

Currency markets as a whole, last week’s 2700 and 2300 pip deviation is now 1500 as the gap is closing as normalcy returns. Upon corrections this week, the gap widens. This overall gap will take us down to about 300 in about 4 weeks then prices will trade in the doldrums again.

Best pairs this week to trade against wide ranges are GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/JPY. Second tier GBP/USD, USD/CAD, GBPCHF. Third layer contains AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY. NZD is a well functioning universe of currency pairs but lands in 4th position due to smaller ranges. AUD significantly woke up from its months long coma and is now on the march.

Non performing or problem pairs this week are EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. EUR/USD and USD/JPY ranges has been problems for weeks. EUR/USD is deeply effected by EUR/GBP levels and USD/JPY is off kilter to its JPY cross pairs. Yet both USD/JPY and EUR/USD will trade 2 and 300 pips this week.

AUD and GBP pairs contain the best trend trades for longer term targets.

Weekly Trades

EUR/USD. Short 1.1126 and 1.1158 to target 1.1024. Must cross 1.1126, 1.1094 1.1061 and 1.1041.

Short below 1.0997 to target 1.0866. Must cross 1.0965, 1.0931 and 1.0899.

USD/JPY. Long 107.32 to target 108.36. Must cross 108.05.

Long above 108.78 to target 109.82. Must cross 109.50.

AUD/CHF. Long 0.5845 and 0.5803 to target 0.6103. Must cross 05887, 0.5929, 0.5971, 0.6013, 0.6055 and 0.6097.

Long above 0.6188 to target 0.6359. Must cross 0.6230, 0.6272, 0.6314 and 0.6356.

GBP/CAD. Short 1.7451 to target 1.7189. Must cross 1.7386, 1.7321, 1.7256 and 1.7191.

Short below 1.7059, below targets 1.6927.

Brian Twomey

FX Profit: 50% All Traded Pips

  On my 4 month Pip Results Blog page Feb to June 2019 is the claim and stated many times is trades profit on 50% of all traded pips. Any Currency Pair.
This claim as shown is backed by math and I stopped counting results when Trade perfection was seen.
Allow weekly trades as my results and fully posted at week beginning everywhere for all viewers.
trade pips counted as weekly trend direction.
GBPUSD last week 1.1400’s to 1.2400’s or 1000 pips.
Posted trade 1.1600’s to target 1.2000;s or 400 ish pips =40%.
EURUSD Last week 1.0600’s to Target 1.0900’s or 300 ish pips = 100%.
EURUSD 2nd leg as posted, Long 1.1042 to target 1.1105.
Actual 1.1042 to 1.1148.
Of 106 traded pips, the profit = 63 pips or bout 50%.
EURAUD 1.8500;s to target 1.7900’s or 600 pips.
EURAUD Same trade developed 1.8500’s to 1.7900’s target.
Actual 1.8500’s to 1.8000’s or 500 Pips and 100%.
USDJPY 110.00’s to target 1.0800’s.
Actual 111.00’s to 107.00’s. traded  profit 50% easily.
USDJPY Same trade developed, 110.00’s to Target 108.00’s.
50% of all traded pip profit isn’t new, its years old but last week and every week allowed revelation.
The difference between Brian Twomey and the crowds is I know exactly what I’m doing and every traded pip, every week is known. No mysteries.
Interesting to Brian Twomey is my Market posts and trades are read by every retail and bank currency analysts, FX street, Hedge funds, Central banks, money managers, Bank traders, trade services, traders in the multitudes of 1000’s.
But not one person recognizes a single trade or market post. A real scum bucket currency analyst at dailyfx has been stealing my trades for years and rewriting the trades on the dailyfx site. Dailyfx is the former FXCM.
 The trading business has evolved from we are all in it together and assist each other to every man a trade service, trade room, website views, trading systems. The trading business turned into a competition to earn trader money by subscriptions, trade room and website views.
Its not enough to evolve from trade explanation to entry = target profit without rhyme or reason. And most are wrong therefore trader competition becomes fierce as trader turnover to trade services is extremely high. Explain low monthly fees and this is the new competition. Its sad, very sad as most are amatuer traders and not very good.
                Brian Twomey

Weekly Trade Results: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

As mentioned to weekly trade text, ranges this week expanded and the inflated ranges added to higher than normal pip targets. Currency prices permanently left last weeks instability and allowed targets to achieve its destinations.
Present currency market prices are deviated by 2700 pips yesterday and about 2300 pips today. Expanded ranges and deviations means easily 1000 pip trades remain as markets trade back to normality. But it also means currency prices are actually trading back to normalcy.

Normalcy may take as much as 3 months and this allows for plenty more great trade opportunities and easy trades. After normalcy achieves, expertise is required to hit trade targets.

Fairly normal functioning currency market price ranges and deviations run 300 to 600 pips. This means trade targets at the lower 300 pip point contain trade targets at about 100 to 150 pips per currency pair and per weekly trade.

Certain pairs EURUSD and USD/CAD for example and CAD related pairs usually encompass range trades to meet the normal 100 to 150 pip target. Range trades as demonstrated here many times means multiple trades per currency pair, per weekly trade. The higher end 600 pip range then targets weekly trades at about 150 – 250 pips. Higher end trades means trend straight to target from entry.

As mentioned , trade targets this week were easily achievable as objectives were set at reasonable destinations especially when unknown corona Virus and stimulus risk remains elevated.

Trades and Results

EUR/USD

Long 1.0646 and 1.0604 to target 1.0979
Lows 1.0638, Highs 1.0888,
Trade runs +284 Pips

EUR/AUD

Short 1.8447 and 1.8546 to target 1.7957.
Highs ? 1.8500’s, lows 1.7957
Trade Ran + 589 Pips

USDJPY

Short 110.82 and 110.99 to target 108.82
Highs 111.40 ? Lows 109.72
Trade Runs ? +127 Pips
Round 2 shorts from 111.40 to target easily 109.68.

GBP/USD

Long 1.1646 and 1.1604 to target 1.2062
Lows 1.1445 Bonus Points Highs 1.1974
Trade Runs from 1.1604 + 370 pips
5 trades, 5 entries and current trades run + 1370 pips.

And as usual year after year, we are correct, no losses, no charts, graphs, stops nor extraneous market details. 18 weekly trades are sent every Saturday. The job of traders is set entries and targets at the Sunday open then walk away and go live life as targets are written in mathematical stone. Come correct for trade assistance.

 

Brian Twomey

 

Weekly Trades: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/AUD

Ranges for a vast majority of our currency pairs expanded widely this week yet the expansion is fairly normal. Prices overall are desperately trying to trade back to normal trading levels again. Targets this week are easily achievable, especially for the neutrals EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

GBP/USD

Long 1.1646 and 1.1604 to target 1.2062. Must cross 1.1687, 1.1728, 1.1769, 1.1810, 1.1896, 1.1937, 1.1978 and 1.2019.

EUR/USD

Long anywhere or 1.0696 to target 1.0979. Must cross 1.0727, 1.0790, 1.0853, 1.0916 and 1.0947. Long above 1.1042 to target 1.1105.

EUR/AUD

Short 1.8447 and 1.8546 to target 1.7957. Must cross 1.8349, 1.8251, 1.8153 and 1.8055.

USD/JPY

Short 110.82 and 110.99 to target 108.82. Must cross 109.78, 109.68 and 109.58 all crucial to achieve target.

 

Brian Twomey  Call for trades if interested [email protected]

Markets and 50 Year Periods; The End is Near

In 2016 and 2017 to highlight the 45th year of the currency free float from January 1972, a series of research articles were published along with an article to market turning point years.

Market periods historically since the BOE was first established in 1694 as the first central bank last 50 years. 50 years means 4 quadrants of 12 1/2 years. But 50 years are biblical as in Genesis 41 for 7 Rich Years and 7 lean years and Leviticus 25 to mark the 49th year.

4 quadrants of 50 years highlighted by each quadrant of 12 1/2 years refers to 1st quadrant periods as trending, good markets, all profit.

2nd quadrant of 12 1/2 years are market crashes.

3rd quadrant of 12 1/2 years are ranging and traded markets.

4th quadrant of 12 1/2 years represent the end as governments are bankrupt and engage in creative destruction to remain solvent. As the 48th year is upon us, its always to little and much to late.

The forecast ability to 50 years, 4 quadrants and 12 1/2 years historically is perfectly accurate.

The question was for 2016 and 2017 when is the end and what’s next. Will markets become trade able markets in the next market period. Based on previous Gold and Slver standards since 1694, the answer is no to traded markets nor to 28 years of 1% exchange rate movements under Bretton Woods.

The best traded markets in 326 years based on the current experiment of interest rates is upon us but is now over and gone. I always believed the IMF’s program of SDR’s would become the new market period but this assumption contains many problems as not all nations are members of the SDR program yet all nations exchange rates trade.

One aspect is certain. As this 4th period ends, new 1st period begins to reign prosperity and safe and sound markets in whatever form comes next.

Watch for central banks to meet to arrange agreements to next period of markets for the next 50 years.

The articles, prescient as usual.

EUR/USD and 50 Year Periods

50 year market periods derive from 4’s because the BOE wa established in 1694 therefore next 50 year periods run to years 1744, 1794, 1844, 1894, , 1944 and 1994. Year 1944 was vital and typical historically as a new period because Bretton Woods 1% ranges in exchange rates were established. View number 4 in relation to 5 as the first start of the counting system and moving averages in multiples of 5.

From roughly 12 year increments broken down into 4 quadrants, the 1st period from 1994 runs to 2006. As expected in historic parallels in 1st periods, prosperity and trends become the dominant theme. From 2003 to 2006, economic boom times dominated and EUR overall in the 1st period went on a rampage higher from 0.8200 to about 1.3300’s.

To define the current 2nd period, add 12 years to 2006 and 2018 becomes the next vital inflection point. Ironically, its an important election year in the United States. Historic 2nd periods are corrective from 1st period trends and 2nd periods experience crashes and / or market changes. The 2008 crash was 2nd period. The free float in currencies was seen directly on the verge of the 2nd and 3rd periods which ran from 1944 to 1994.

Taken from 1972, year 2008 and the crash hit exactly on the 2 and 3 quadrant point. Add 12 to 2008 and the result is 2020. The larger dominant quadrant from 1994 informs 2018 is a crucial year and taken from the free float then 2020 becomes vital to mark the next 12 year period.

In current 2017 marks indecision year just as 2007 was an indecision year. Markets historically in every previous period in endings and beginnings experience indecision years. Markets lack a clue, trend, substance or direction in indecision years. Possibly we can view markets as a restructure and / or preparation for the new period ahead.

The import to today was define 2018 and what’s ahead due to the 323 year perfect accuracy in 50 year periods. Two persons understand periods, the great Martin Armstrong and my old college friend David Knox Barker.
Barker has been studying and trading K, Wall and Kondrontieff waves, short and long periods and business cycles continuously since the early 1980’s. Only Barker could write a master’s thesis on Waves and biblical histories from Leviticus 25. Barker today is touted as one of the world’s foremost experts on waves and cycles.

Market Turning Point Years

As periods, the official United States 1982 Gold Report documents approximately 50 year intervals between Gold and free float currency duration and dates to the 1500’s. If the December 1971 Smithsonian Agreement measured as the free float commencement date, the current term enters not only year 45 but possibly market shifts and currency pair realignments may conceivably be viewed as 12.5 years when separated in four quadrants.

As such, possible turning points since 1971 would occur in 1983, 1995, 2007, 2019 and 2021 as the 50 year end point. From January 1972, possible turning points would transpire in 1984, 1996, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as the 50 year end point.

Predominant market arrangements endured from the 1971 Smithsonian Agreement to the 1985 Plaza Accords then from the 1987 Louvre Accords to the December 1994 Mexican Peso crisis. Market crashes since 1971 materialized in 1987, 1994, 1997 Thai Baht, 2001 and 2008. Year 2008 qualified as a turning point and its possible the crash was the catalyst to switch EUR/JPY from EUR/USD to USD/JPY.

EUR/USD and Market Periods

The 2008 crash was not only seen long in advance but its most important because it marked the final period of the 50 year financial cycle which began in January 1972. Periods in 50 years of financial markets are almost ordained from the heavens and marked in the Bible in many instances such as 7 rich years and 7 lean years. Jubilee years are 49 years and after 49 the system of money and exchange reverts to a different period inside a new system. Markets and central bankers can’t fight the system since its perfection as a prediction is perfect since establishment of the BOE as the first central bank in 1694. What we’ve seen from central bankers since 2008 is disaster policy after disaster policy against zero results.

From 2008 and enter of the Last Quadrant of 4 in a 50 year period, current Quadrant goes from 2008 to Maximum 12 1/2 years. This places the end period of this cycle at 2020. As markets draw near to 2020, more danger exists to the final crash. Markets begin and end in crashes then the system reverts to another period. Market Volatility as well is almost ordained based on the cycle period. Current volatility is the lowest in 50 years and again warns of danger because prices lack direction and policy purpose.

While the next crash is almost ordained by the number 50 and its miraculous prediction, Quadrant 1 in the new period always marks great prosperity and lasts as much as 12 1/2 years. But markets and prosperity become overbought so Quadrant 2 historically marks corrections for as much as 12 1/2 years. What “as much as 12 1/2 years ” means is the number 7 and 10 are vital to measure as a guide the last point at 12 1/2. The current period and year is in the severe danger zone. The positive aspect to the final period is prosperity lies ahead for the world and markets but the type of trade able market is unknown.

How markets arrive at crashes and periods is government debt is unable to sustain itself.

Brian Twomey

67 Year Historic Highs and Lows

Against unstable markets, wild price swings, and constant rises and falls, the answer is offered like this. When GBP/USD dropped every week to extreme levels from 1.2900’s to 1.1900’s, GBP trading was dropped on the 2nd week of constant drops. When AUDUSD broke 0.7000’s and dropped every week to extremes without correction, AUD trading was dropped.

Markets are in melt down mode, EURAUD bolted higher 2000 pips this week, EURNZD 3800 pips. GBPUSD began the week in deep oversold at 1.2200’s and now trades 1.1400’s. USDJPY above 110.00’s, a price doesn’t exist. AUDUSD still falls straight down at 0.5500’s from the 0.7000’s break. GBPCHF at 1.1100’s doesn’t exist on record. EURGBP at 0.9200;s doesn’t exist on record. The list goes on.

Then what I term ghost prices exist. EUR/NZD above 1.7600’s, EUR/AUD above low 1.6000’s, USD/CAD above 1.3000’s and ths list goes on. A phantom price cannot trade on our accounts by any rationality, not by our models and not any reasonable standards. And never to damage successful trading over decades.

Its insanity to believe profits are earned in melt down markets and done by skill especially against deeply oversold / overbought and not when bottoms are tops are yet to establish.

Here’s 67 years of averages dating to 1953 and in search of bottoms and tops.

EUR/CHF Lifetime lows 1.0391, from 8/2019

EUR/JPY Lows 92.74, from 10/2000

AUD/USD Lifetime lows = 0.5045 and dates from 10/2000. Free Float March 1983.

AUDJPY 56.91 from 11/2000.

AUDCAD 0.7787

GBPUSD Lifetime lows: 1.1307, 1.1206 and 1.0986, all dates to Plaza Accords 1985. If not for Plaza Accords, hard to determine if such averages would exist. GBP/USD would then become today an unknown price, a true ghost price.

GBPJPY. Lifetime lows 120.70, dates from 10/2011

EURGBP. Lifetime highs = 0.9196 from 3/2009. Current 0.9200;s doesn’t exist, another ghost price.

USDCAD. Lifetime highs 1.6002, dates to 1/2002

CADJPY. Lifetime lows 60.87, dates to 4/1995.

CADCHF and AUDCHF and NZDCHF and GBP/CHF current prices don’t exist dating to 1953. Literally doesn’t exist on record and the nearest average is miles above current prices. A ghost price.

NZDUSD Lifetime lows 0.4006, dates to 10/2000.

GBP/NZD 1.6990, dates to 10.1976.

GBP/CAD 1.4807, dates to Plaza Accords 2/1985.

 

Brian Twomey

March 2020: DXY V Fed Funds

What explains the wild ride melt down and melt up for DXY and USD cross pairs EUR/AUD and EURNZD for example, is Fed Funds lacks a Correlation to DXY and is overall negative. When the Fed dropped interest rates, Powell offered the green light for a massive USD rise. And the massive USD rise in turn explains the non USD pairs, GBPUSD, AUD for example, to radically drop. And non stop.

The problem in the DXY Vs Fed Funds Effective relationship is Fed Funds is miles to low and deeply oversold. Fed funds at 0.25 should trade at easily 0.35 and 0.67 and that’s just the start to retain a fairly normalized range. But to achieve those levels, a Fed Funds rise by 50 Basis points is required and its not likely anytime soon especially from a Donald Trump perspective.

Traditional interest rate arrangements among nations was Fed Funds was always highest and nation’s priced interst rate below Fed Funds Effective rates. Along comes Trump to now change the 50 year system since the free float in 1972 to price Fed Funds below many nations. This is a radical departure to 50 year norms and more radical to USD’s role to other nations.
Fed Funds to travel higher must break 1.15 to target 1.39 and not likely anytime soon. Fed Funds could easily live lower for longer and for a long time to come.

The RBNZ and smartest central bank and guardians of Asia interest rates due to it position as next in line to its own adoption of interest rates from the Fed every trading afternoon, correctly priced its interest rates at 0.25 to match the Fed Funds Rate.

DXY at 101.00’s is miles to high and massively overbought. Next targets lower are located at 99.82, 99.51, 99.16, 98.74 and 98.39.

DXY’s big break line is located at 98.11, a break targets many massive brick walls at 96.00’s starting at 96.75, 96.36 and 96.18.
Most extreme price to DXY is 102.33 and another 100 pips higher.

DXY above the 5 year average at 96.36 now sits correctly with its counterpart Gold as Gold trades above its 5 year average at 1262.19.

WTI below its 5 year average at 53.52 and the S&P’s below 2505 are also now correctly positioned.

The S&P’s reversal below its 5 year average allowed the VIX to now position correctly along side its trade counterparts Gold and DXY as all are non risk assets.

Risk assets WTI and the S&P’s are now correctly positioned against non risk Gold, DXY and the VIX. Overall, the United States system is correctly positioned except for a massively oversold Fed Funds.

 

Brian Twomey

March 2020: Currency Pairs at 66 Year Highs and Lows

66 Year highs and lows dates to 1953

EURCHF Lifetime lows, 66 Years, dating to 1953. Lows 1.0391, from 8/2019

 

EURJPY Lows 92.74, from 10/2000

 

AUDUSD Lifetime lows, 66 Years, dating to 1953 = 0.5045

 

AUDJPY 56.91 from 11/2000

 

AUDCAD 0.7787

 

GBPUSD Lifetime lows, 66 years, dating to 1953 = 1.1307, 1.1206 and 1.0986, all Dates to Plaza Accords 1985

 

GBPJPY 66 year lows, dating to 1953 = 120.70 from 10/2011

 

EURGBP 66 year Highs, dating to 0.9153 = 0.9196 from 3/2009. Current 0.9200;s doesn’t exist. 

 

USDCAD 66 year highs, dating to 1953 = 1.6002, dates to 1/2002

 

CADJPY 66 year lows, dating to 1953 = 60.87, dates to 4/1995. 

 

CADCHF and AUDCHF and NZDCHF and GBP/CHF Current prices don’t exist dating to 1953. Literally doesn’t exist on record. 

 

Best to offer as mentioned is current longs and shorts are impossible to trade against such extreme highs and lows. Once this Conorvirus and trump stimulus  situation settles, the reversals will offer 1000’s of points and literal get rich trades.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

Weekly Trades: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/AUD

Behind the curve as I focused on the S&P’s.

GBP/USD

Long anywhere or 1.2261 to target 1.2759. Must cross 1.2284, 1.2379, 1.2474, 1.2569, 1.2664 and 1.2711. 

Above 1.2854 targets 1.2949.
                 EUR/USD
 Long 1.1079 and 1.1053 to target 1.1103.
Long above 1.1129 to target 1.1329. Must cross 1.1229 and deep caution 1.1250 and 1.1258 and 1.1308.
Short 1.1329 to target 1.1179. Must cross 1.1229.
                     USD/JPY
 Long 105.69 and and 105.27 to target 106.51.
Long above 107.34 to target 108.98.
                     EUR/AUD
 Short 1.7949 and 1.8001 to target 1.7241. Must cross 1.7713, 1.7595, 1.7477, 1.7359, and 1.7301. 
   Brian Twomey

SPX 500 Prices and Targets: December 2018 V March 2020

The S&P’s 500 dropped 600 Points December 2018 and now March 2020, the drop was 900 points. The 2 year currency price cycle applies to stock Indices and all market prices. The key is 2 years. The current March 900 point drop is perfectly in line to the 2 year currency price cycle. The 2018 currency price cycle began in February, off slightly to December 2018 S& P’s or advance warning to February and currency price moves.

The cycle takes 2 years to complete and begins from February /March to April / May about every 2 years. Complete means takes 2 years for maximum overbought or oversold. Next big stock market cycle move is scheduled for February / March 2022.
After the big 2018 and 2020 Stock moves, price becomes settled, normalized, oversold and rests as it requires information to move or breaks at pertinent averages. The settled price, like a currency price, ranges as it lacks a long term target. Previous 2018 and current 2020 drops achieved long term targets. Upon target completion, 2018 and now 2020 S&P prices is now normalized.

From 2018 to March 2020, the S&P’s rose 1000 points from 2300’s to 3300’s to become severely overbought. Both the 2018 and 2020 rise was driven by shortest term 1 year monthly averages. The averages due to short term became overbought quickly, 2900’s in 2018 and 2800’s in March 2020.

For stock indices, the 2 year cycle means the 1 big and easy trade exists to profit much and quickly. The 2 year currency price cycle means many big and easy trades exists to profit much and quickly. No challenge exists, just click.
The December 2018 drop for 600 points is wrong. Actual drop was 400 points and 200 points were unaccounted. The March 900 point drop is wrong. Actual drop was 600 points and 300 points were unaccounted. Actual point drops and percentages is wrong.

Most vital to drops is magic numbers in markets, 300 and 600. The 2018 drop was 400 and 600 points for 2020. A highly normal move. Explains the unaccountability to 2018 at 200 and 300 for 2020.

Bear market is wrong. The 2018 drop was a correction from deep overbought and failed to break the 5 year average at 2300’s. The 2020 drop was a correction and failed to break and sustain the 5 year average at current 2505.25. Only a break at 2505.25 will prices head lower and bear market declaration is correct. Note 2 year and 200 point rise to the 5 year average from 2300’s to 2500’s.

Bear market was declared by analysts and commentators in 2018, same bear market story to 2020. Both are wrong as written in 2018 and now 2020.

Correct forecast for 2018 and 2020. Written in February 2018, updated in December as follows.

Extreme prices located from 2698.59 to 2988.25 and top is 2900.00. The top traded 2942 in September and October 2018, big drop materialized from 2700’s to 2300 in December 2018.

2018 targets are located at 2648.45, 2542.31, 2454.13, 2391.50, 2351.47, 2312.33, 2262.46 and 2213.65. Target achieved at 2348.
2020 trade targets as written in October 2019 as follows: 2955.71, 2904.21, 2869.13, 2813.70, 2742.65, 2681.77, 2646.07. S&P’s traded to 2400;s and 200 missed points as part of the unaccounted points.

Next moves are governed by breaks lower at 2505.25 to target 2420.84 and 2322.15, 2136.55 and 2034.05. Above must break 2638.48, 2766.22, 2867.85 and 2985.27.

Absolute range top is 3138.71. Most extreme is located at 3445.59. Extreme below is located at 2524.95 and just above the 5 year average. Note correct 600 point range from 2505 to 3138.71.

Strategy is long 2524.95 to target easily 2800’s beginning at 2807.63, 2836.83 and 2873.95. Politically, I wouldn’t short a Trump Presidency nor expected re election by 1 point especially if the Republicans gain control of the House.

To gauge the S& P’s by other market barometers then GBP/CHF is the stock market indicator and usually an early warning system. For the VIX, GBP/JPY is the master early warning indicator.

As S&P Prices progress, forecasts will update.

 

Brian Twomey

Martin Luther on Pandemics and Plagues

I don’t advertise my commitment to God 17 years ago nor to my 25 years as a Political Science Adjunct Professor on many college campuses but I thought the words of Martin Luther inspiring.

Pastor Barry sent the below words this morning regarding Plagues and Pandemics from Martin Luther and a church reform perspective. Thought it interesting and hopefully helpful to others in our Wuhan,/ Corona virus situation.

 

  As this Pandemic spreads, and as the media outlets go overboard (in my estimation) with their coverage, I would imagine you might have some questions about what changes, suspensions, etc. might happen at the church, if any.  Let me say at the outset that we ARP’s typically don’t get overly excited about things like this precisely because of the Reformed Distinctive we talked about in the sermon on January 19 of this year – God’s Sovereignty. God is in control and that is true whether there is a Pandemic or whatever is taking place – war, pestilence, famine, whatever.

     But I did want you to know that earlier this week, I asked the four medical doctors who serve on the session right now to be ready with comments and suggestions as to what changes, if any, we should make in what we do as a church on a weekly basis.  The Session is meeting Monday evening, and we will discuss their comments at that time. In the meantime, I encourage you to come to worship unless you are ill. And I will use some words from the Reformer Martin Luther to explain why.

     About ten years after Luther nailed his 95 theses to the church door at Wittenberg, there was a plague engulfing Germany.  Breslau pastor Johann Hess asked Luther for advice, and Luther answered his friend’s request with a brief paper entitled “Whether One May Flee From a Deadly Plague”.  (Thanks to Marvin Olasky with World News Group for calling our attention to Luther’s tract).

     Luther’s first point in times of great illness is to follow Jesus’ statement in Matthew 25:40 – “As you did it to one of the least of these my brethren, you did it unto me.”  Luther basically said “If you wish to serve Christ and to wait on Him, very well, you have your sick neighbor well at hand…This is said as an admonition and encouragement against fear and a disgraceful flight to which the devil would tempt us so that we would disregard God’s command in our dealings with our neighbor and so we would fall into sin of the left hand.”

     Then Luther continued:  “Others sin on the right hand.  They are much too rash and reckless, tempting God and disregarding everything which might counteract death and the plague…They do not avoid persons and places infected by the plague, but lightheartedly make sport of it and wish to prove how independent they are.”

     Luther went on to say that pastors “must admonish people to attend church and listen to the sermon so that they learn through God’s word how to live and how to die…If Christ died for me, why should I not expose myself to some small dangers for His sake and disregard this feeble plague?  If you can terrorize me (as if speaking to Satan), Christ can strengthen me. If you can kill, Christ can give life…Here is Christ and here am I, His servant in this work. Let Christ prevail!”

     Thank you for reading this announcement.  Obviously, we will not be greeting at the door, but look forward to seeing those of you who are well in worship and Sunday School.  We continue to trust in God’s Sovereignty and His ability to work all things for good (Romans 8:28), and I assure you the leadership of the church is aware and informed, and will come up with whatever precautions we need, even as we continue to work toward the mission of this church to serve God through worship, education and fellowship that we may proclaim His grace and share His love in the world.

     Brian Twomey

 

 

 

WTI March 2020: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Last time we visited WTI was June 2019. In June was informed 56.69 had to break to target 63.71. In September 2019, WTI traded to 63.30 then 65.86 February 2020.

June 2019, was informed 22 point maximum ranges. Today’s maximum range resides at 9 points and a steep drop in 9 months. The range drop informed the WTI price was off kilter to its ranges. This means ability to a wandering price.

The main problem to WTI in June 2019 was negative correlations to DXY, 2 and 10 year yields, S&P’s and Fed Funds. Only positive correlation For WTI was GDP and explains the higher move to 65.00’s due to higher GDP.

WTI traded its best ranges from January’s 65.86 highs to 27.36 lows in March 2020.

WTI dropped 38.16 points or 12 points per month. The previous best range from June 2019 to August 2019 traded 50.81 to 63.67 or 13 points for 6 points per month.

The short trade to 27.00 lows was the break at 53.32.

While 56.69 was the break point for WTI to move higher, WTI must now break 58.59 to target 67.28. However WTI averages in the 50’s are many and solid beginning with 54.33, 55.16 and 57.29.

WTI currently at 30.96 is not only massively oversold but the long trade is upon us. The WTI target is 49.89. WTI achieves this destination by breaks higher at 44.08, 46.91, 48.30 and 49.02.

From view of the overall long term averages, WTI could easily remain in a trading range from 50.00’s to 44.00 for an extended period.

 

Brian Twomey

March 2020 Long Term Targets

And so March begins in 2020 as was the same story in 2018. Trades in 2020 as in 2018 is the single focus to reversals, trends and great price movements. Avoidance to the word volatility as this word implies uncontrolled, unknown or sporadic prices. The currency price is a perfect price and a price known long in advance to targets 800 and 1000 pips.

Targets achieved destinations in 2018. Destinations means alignment, rightsize or my term, settled price. A settled price never rests as it must by math standards achieve its next distant point. By math standards it must also return to its distant points.
Distant points are defined as 300, 600 and for a full currency price cycle, 2500 pips. Any price outside of 3, 6 and 2500 are non existent prices, ghost prices. And ghost prices are not only easy profit opportunities but seen often.

AUD/JPY at 67.00’s and 68.00 are ghost prices, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF currently trade all time, 60 year lows. Both prices are ghost prices and don’t exist. EUR/CHF below 1.0300’s trades ghost prices and below 60 year lows. Below 1.0300;s, EUR/CHF prices don’t exist. CAD/JPY at 73.00’s trades ghost prices and below 60 year lows. Below 73.00’s, prices don’t exist.

2019 is considered the out year to the cycle and the out year to any cycle as few easy long term target trades become available. And overall reference is to all currency pairs, the full currency market.

March 2020 targets vs 2018 targets

Wide range currency pairs never contain a specific target as their overall purpose is to forever range trade. Wide range pairs maintain a check on the shorter range currecny pairs, GBPUSD Vs GBP/NZD for example. March 2020, many trade above tops and now offer good trade opportunities.

AUD and GBP/JPY offer best trade opportunities as most distant targets in relation to 19 currency pairs.

EUR/USD target 1.1405 Vs 2018 at 1.1600’s. Took 2 years for 1.1600;s to drop 200 pips to 1.1400’s. EURUSD next big move should be much lower and the move is imminent.

EUR/NZD. Top 1.7600’s. Long way to drop. Wide range currency.

GBP/CHF 2020 target 1.2879 Vs 2018 at 1.3200’s. Target = 800 pips.

GBP/CAD 1.8200 top, long way to drop for wide range currency.

GBP/USD. 2020 target 1.3385 vs 2018 at 1.3600, 1.3800 then 1.3400’s. Target 1.3400’s achieved. 1.3385 = 400 pips from 1.2900’s.

AUD/USD. 2020 target 0.7300 Vs 2018 at 0.7800’s. An 800 pip target.

AUD/JPY 2020 target 79.00’s Vs 2018 at 83.00’s. An 1100 pip target.

USD/JPY. Lacks a target yet ranges from 102 to 109.00’s. The 2018 target at 100 bounced from 104.00’s.

EUR/JPY 2020 target 123.00’s Vs 2018 at 125. A 500 pip target.

GBP/JPY. 2020 target 144 vs 2018 at 147.00’s. Target achieved. An 800 pip target.

EUR/AUD. 2020 target 1.5900’s Vs 2018 at 1.5900’s. No changes. A 1400 pip target.

GBP/AUD. 2020 top 1.9400’s Vs 2018 top at 2.0019. a 600 pip drop.

USD/CAD. 2020 target 1.2900’s, Vs 2018 at 1.2800’s. No changes. An 800 pip target.

CAD/JPY. 2020 target 84.00’s Vs 2018 at 86.00’s, a 200 pip drop. A 900 pip target.

NZD/JPY. 2020 target 72.00’s Vs 2018 at 72.00’s. No changes. A 500 pip target.

NZD/USD. 2020 target 0.6700’s vs 2018 at 0.7000’s. A 400 Pip target.

AUD/CHF. 2020 target 0.7000’s. An 800 pip target.

NZD/CHF. 2020 target 0.6600’s. A 700 pip target.

EUR/CHF 60 year lows below 1.0300’s.

As targets achieved in 2018, reversals are now seen as 300 and 600 pips to begin. Targets won’t change until destinations are complete. 300 pips are fairly standard as forever price targets while 600 approaches max peaks. Longest trades view as 2500 pips and 2500 is also a currency market price standard. 2500 is viewed when targets complete to next price targets generally over a 2 year period.

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD

This week’s trades remain the same as last week as follows USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD. For GBP/ZAR was eliminated as entry and target finally achieved perfection.

Targets to remainder pairs failed to achieve destinations yet all trades were profitable until the Fed’s surprise cut.

AUD/JPY ran 134 Pips, GBP/NZD ran 375 Pips, USD/JPY ran 77 Pips and GBP/CHF entry was off by 166 Pips.

USD/NOK achieved its 9.2800 target.

GBP/USD and cross pairs, especially GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY remain problems to the overall GBP complex. But problems are opportunities. GBPUSD stands alone above its 1.2880 break point while GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF trade miles below 1.2504 and 139.94.

AUD/USD and all AUD pairs remain not only deeply oversold from short and long term but AUD represents the best long term trades.

Its March and the most vital month to all currency trading. Perfectly accurate Models were updated to reflect the second March since 2018.

March 2018 was the last time long term trades for 500 and 1000 pips became abundant and affected all currency pairs. As March 2019 was dead to long term trades, March 2020 and the same 500 and 1000 pip trades are upon us. A review from March to May 2018 was seen in the 35 posted trades and many targets hit perfectly for 700 ish pips.

Written here before to the 2 year cycle to currency pair prices as the cycle ends in March. Why March is due to sufficient distance to currency prices. Distance as mentioned before to currency and stock prices are represented as 300 and 600 Pips and Points. Distance is the most deviated points allowed for prices to travel in 1 direction.

Currency markets for March 2020 achieved its allowable distance and now prices must rightsize to align properly. Rightsize may take a full 3 months but depends which currency pair and when targets achieve. EUR/AUD’s 2 trades for 700 pips lasted 7 weeks to offer what;s ahead.

Long term targets for 19 currency pairs will post.

USD/JPY’s drop to 105.00’s and now 104.00’s is a gift to its long term target at easily 108. USD/JPY must trade to 108.99.
The next significant low is located at 102.33 and 102.40. Both are vital due to its low for longer term ranges. USD/JPY at current 104.00’s and 103.00 are approaching range lows to highlight location.

Trades

USD/JPY

Long anywhere or 102.33, 103.04 and 103.84 to target easily 107.83. Most vital points to cross are 106.13 and 106.62.
AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY to current 68.00’s contains a long term target at 79.15 as all AUD pairs were significantly destroyed to trade at bottoms. Last time 68.00’s traded was April 2009 or 11 years ago.

Long anywhere or 67.60 and 68.25 to target easily 71.48. At 71.48 places last week’s entry at 70.15 to a 130 pip profit.
GBP/CHF.

A problem pair due to its misalignment to GBP/USD. Long term target is located at 1.2874.

Long 1.2085 and 1.2015 if markets become seriously off kilter to target easily 1.2365.

GBP/NZD

GBP/NZD the largest mover among all 28 currency pairs is subject to GBP/USD for its next target. GBP/NZD is a range pair due to its wide movvements and therefore lacks a target price.

GBP/NZD lower must break 2.0634 to target

Short 2.0680 and 2.0625, just ahead of 2.0725 to target 2.0217. Big break lone to cross is 2.0435.

 

Brian Twomey

FXStreet Signal Service Losses

 

Fx Street supposed to be the premiere FX site. In the past, absolutely. In the present, a disaster of monumental incompetents and this began in the post 2008 era and built from bad to absolute account destruction. Fxstreet trader views were by far number 1 and highest among every fx site on the planet. Number 2 was far behind.

Imagine in 2012 during my trades, 100,000 views were achieved. Today, fxstreet is lucky to see 5,000 daily and normally 2,000 ish views on any given day. Fxstreet fell and fell hard. But they aren’t trying to recover. Its as if they just don’t care anymore. Maybe they are tired.

Fxstreet views changed when enter and target was the only articles written and accepted. Then of course yesterday’s market information which contains no profit objective.

Francesc and many unnamed insiders never seen by the public are actually terrific and honest people. But Fxstreet banked on the incompetents and named traders like Urr Urr Yohay, Boris the Scloss, Kathy Liens crooked, Joesph “I don;’t know Economics” Trevisani. And a million others.

Val Bednarik deserves much attention and appreciation for cranking it out daily for many years. She is at least more right than wrong.

Banking on incompetents was thought to bring views then high ad rates. 2 problems. Incompetents didn’t bring anything except disaster to fxstreet and losses to account viewers. Without Fxstreet, Boris the schloss  and other named incompetents would raid another site. No loyalty to fxstreet as fxstreet is just a conduit to spread disaster to unsuspected.

Fxstreet now has a Trading Signal Service and the daily losses are mounting higher than the Himalayas. Not much more to impart about Fxstreet. They desperately need to wake up from the self induced coma or they risk going bankrupt.

 

Here’s the losses. And this is just 1 day. I’ve been tracking daily trades since the service started. Today is typical to any given day.

I offered to become involved but its not trader profits of interest to fxstreet, its ad revenue.

Hope all appreciate my few public trades because trading isn’t easy but I post traders to offer my services so traders become profitable and never to fall into the arms of the incompetents.

 

https://www.fxstreet.com/signals

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

5 Day Volatility and Interest Rate Rule

Takes 5 days for interest rate maturities to determine Central bank raise, lower or on hold.
Traditionally then takes 5 days for interest rates to settle back to normalization. especially after 50 Point changes and from 3 central banks. All in 1 week.
Means 5 days of volatility for all Market Prices as interest rates determine and Price every financial Instrument on the Planet.
Was decided in 1972 Currency Free Float by all Central banks as interest rates as the new market format.
Once interest rates settle then back to same old trades and Ranges.
More exact entries will be seen again as usual. Until then, grab all profits available as this interim period won’t last.
             Brian Twomey