Month: February 2021

Overall currency markets are confronted by a crucial yet extremely cautious week ahead. Price ranges this week are running at widest points in many months and adds to the potential of big moves.

EUR/USD 1.2061, AUD/USD 0.7657 and USD/CAD 1.2783 decides future and current direction to all 28 currency pairs. EUR/USD and AUD/USD breaks then much lower or much higher. USD/CAD breaks 1.2783 then much higher or a failure to break then much lower.

JPY cross pairs remain overbought and reveals EUR/USD and AUD/USD will eventually break lower and USD/CAD breaks higher. GBP and NZD will then follow lower.

Not a driver to market prices this week are the typical alarm bells written by market writers with specialization in marketing rather than expertise in markets, trading and market prices. Elections, Covid, lockdowns, vaccines, central bank meetings, yields, month end, Fed, Powell and the Mars rover landing failed to move market prices. Not at the time of release nor in subsequent trade days did prices move except to the degree intended from the start of the day or week.

A market price will achieve its destination by mathematical certainty without regard to outside events yet professional alarm bell ringers are surprised at a rise in yields, no movements to NFP and central bank meetings and to a price that fails to respond to their sounding of the bells in the market square.

NFP and fed meetings barely moved EUR/USD 20 pips in each of the last 6 and 8 months. Whistle blowers month end and rebalance will be heard this week. Meanwhile monthly averages haven’t changed in many months and a rebalance nor month end changes to prices fails to exist as price fail to move enough to require changes to averages.

DXY monthly averages remain inside 89.95 to 91.43, Gold 1815 -1642. EUR/USD traded 1.1900’s -1.2200 in February, 1.2000’s to 1.2300’s in January. The 2 year yield traded 0.11 to 0.23 in the past 9 months. The S&P’s traded 300 points from 3900 to 3600 for February, 200 points for January. WTI traded 10 points in February from 51.00 to 61, and 6 Points for January.

Our professional alarm bell ringers are long on whistles but short on market competency. Necessary yet least favored aspect to market prices, trades and economics is the requirement to run and enter data for a clear picture to entries and exists and to understand the economic condition. But markets and profits were never nor will ever be the ultimate goal to reporting.

The Week

The ultimate revelation to a cautious market this week is found in GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. GBP/AUD at 1.8059 resides inside vital range points from 1.7885 to 1.8130 and GBP/NZD at 1.9318 to 1.9176. Both GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD from oversold last week drifted higher directly into a neutral zone for this week

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EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD however are deeply oversold and contains ability to travel higher while GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD remain stuck in neutrality.

EUR/USD led the charge higher for non USD pairs upon the break of the 5 year average at 1.1300’s last July and is in the position to take down GBP, NZD and all non USD pairs. GBP/USD must break 1.3600’s and NZD/USD 0.7100’s to assist in a wholesale trend change.

Deeply oversold USD/CHF at 0.9084 broke higher from 0.9001, CAD/ZAR trades above 11.86 and USD/CAD is on the verge of a break higher at 1.2783.

GBP/USD retains slight overbought status while next highest exchange rate GBP/JPY is deeply overbought and next lowest GBP/CHF also opens the week in richter scale overbought. Same situation exits for EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD as EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY are both overbought.

NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD offer no assistance as leaders to NZD/USD and AUD/USD direction as both sit in neutrality.

EUR/GBP challenges 0.8732 on a break of 0.8573 or a drift to 0.8400;s. EUR/GBP traded to exactly 0.8728 Friday then lower to close at 0.8655.

DXY remains in a 89.95 to 91.43 range and a break higher at 91.43 challenges 92.78.

Brian Twomey

From yesterday’s reported top at 1.2241, EUR/USD traded exactly to 1.2242 then dropped to 1.2137 or 105 pips. At 1.2137, EUR/USD was located between 1.2131 to 1.2139. While 105 pips for one leg of the trade, existed for the day, the actual trade was multiple longs and shorts. The 105 pips was a downside trade but pips were gained from previous longs.

Everyday is different for day trades as certain days may trade 1 long and 1 short or on good days maybe 2 longs and 2 shorts or 2 shorts and 2 longs. Actual for yesterday was 2 longs and 2 shorts to profit from nearly every traded pip within the structure offered yesterday.

View my website for 2014 and 2015 and prior to the ECB interest rate changes as featured many examples to day trades by multiple longs and shorts. For longs and shorts then traded 80 and 90 pips in 1 direction as opposed to today’s 50 and 60 ish pips.

While the day trade allows for an abundance of profit pips quickly, certain days are offered trades for a 24 hour duration. Yesterday’s EUR/USD lacked criteria for a 24 trade due to small ranges and known long in advance of the day trade.

EUR/USD Today

Here’s today’s EUR/USD

1.2097, 1.2104, 1.2112, 1.2119, 1.2125, 1.2127, 1.2134, Vs 1.2165, 1.2173, 12181, 1.2188, 1.2195, 1.2203, 1.2211 and 1.2219.

Changes from yesterday include 22 pips dropped from the upside and 19 pips from the downside. In actuality, no changes.

Gold today achieved 1753 lows from reported 1815 and next target as written resides at 1728.

DXY dropped below 89.95 to 89.67 lows and the drop allowed EUR/USD to travel higher yesterday. DXY since regained 89.95 and traded to 90.45 or 78 pips from 89.67 to 90.45.

The S&P’s traded to 3801 lows. Miles of downside remain.

Brian Twomey

In the stucture of the currency price is first anf forremost interest rate averages as market prices and life derives from averages. For USD today is found 1.0207 and EUR is located 1.0070. DXY is extraordinarily high but not to the sick degree of NZD at 1.09.

All life in a market price is the beginning at parity or 1.0 then prices travel upwards. Parity is the safe number and allows a market price to trade above. Its forced to trade and move.

The difference between 1.0207 and 1.0070 is 0.0137 or 0.0068. By 0.0068, DXY informs the range today and only for today is located at 90.58 and 89.22. EUR/USD ranges are located at 1.2246 and 1.2110.
The problem is the ranges are to wide for today’s day trade. Good to know this information but the daytrade will result in losses by longs and shorts entered at wrong prices and target never to materialize.

Take EUR by itself using averages and we have 1.2248 and 1.2108. Wrong again to ranges and result to trade losses. To DXY by itself and we have 90.92 and 88.87. Guaranteed losses and both not even good for future targets.

Interest rate averages change daily and informs the depth and degree of overbought and oversold in relation to parity yet its common to use those averages to gauge ranges although the day ranges are never exact for a day trade. Important is interest rate average ranges

AUD/USD became a strange currency by the last RBA drop to OCR and its the first ever fixed average at 1.0015. NZD is in the richter scale to overbought. Traditional averages once changed daily by wider movements and in relation to daily interest rates. But under the patron saint of central bank authoritarian control, no longer are wide movements seen as experienced in great trade days of old.

Consider the EUR/USD just before the ECB went negative in 2014, interest rate averages were trading at 1.04 and 1.05. Negative or not to the ECB as the EUR was flying miles lower by its own volition. NZD is a 0 point currency and trades at 1.09. This is extraordinary but noted also by a quick view.

Today’s EUR at 1.0070 is a drop from 1.0082 yesterday. Quite extraordinary, yesterday’s Fed interest rates failed to change so today we deal with the same 1.0207 and overbought for USD and oversold EUR/USD.
The second element is add daily interest rates to the structure to find the exact shorts, longs and ranges for today. Ranges are fairly fixed due to interest rates changes by small amounts.

Overnight rates once changed substantially everyday and was wholly responsible for interest rate average movements but no longer since the central bank changes in 2016. Today, interest rate maturities run prices but not by much as maturities rarely change by any movements worthy to talk about so its why daily movements became fixed into far less ranges than pre 2016.

Outlined today is the exact methodology used by central banks for their own trades. I am perfectly in line to any central bank on the planet. And its very simple to trade and factor everyday. The trade requires a click and nothing else.

EUR/USD today

1.2116, 1.2123, 1.2131, 1.2139, 1.2147, 1.2155, Vs 1.2185, 1.2193, 1.2201, 1.2209, 1.2216, 1.2224, 1.2232 and 1.2241.

Most Vital: 1`.2147 and 1.2155 Vs 1.2209 and 1.2241.

EUR/USD today dead stopped at 1.2224 and above 1.2209. EUR will go short today. The trader job is click and click.

DAX

The same interest rates used for currencies are deployed for stock indices. Here;s the DAX structure.
69.88, 34.94, 17.47, 8.73, 4.36, 2.18, slight changes daily but not much. The best the DAX can trade is 2 times its range and today that means 139.76 points.

S&P’s

Here’s the structure: 19.63, 9.81, 4.90, 2.45, 1.22. The best the S&P’s can trade s 2 times its range or 39.26 points. Slight changes daily but very small. The structure for stock indices and currencies is fixed but the fix is what earns profits.

Brian Twomey

Proud to announce and Published Next Week The Contested Election of 1870 Between C.C. Bowen and Robert C. De Large in the 2nd Congressional District of South Carolina.

3 years Contested between 2 crooked Republican Politicians. Both highly intelligent yet cunning in their avaricious attempts to gain and seek power. De Large was a mulatto while Bowen was a carpetbagger whose ilk dominated South Carolina politics in the 1860’s and 1870’s to include the most crooked Governor Robert Scott.

Governor Scott used the Freedman’s Bureau as his slush fund to not only oversubscribe state bonds purposely but he bought and sustained political power by favorable land deals to supporters. The game of politics was a treacherous practice in the 1860′ and 1870’s but viciousness was common and consummated openly. Bribery was a common practice as seen most by Speaker of the House and later Governor Franklin J. Moses whose fortune was earned by Political bribery yet later rejected by his family due to illegal schemes and later became a drug addict and jailed many times.

Bowen began life in the Confederate Army and later was arrested for accessory to murder in 1864 for the killing of Colonel Parker, jailed then escaped and forever free when the Union army invaded Charleston. Bowen would later become a lawyer at the Freedmen’s Bureau to assist newly freed blacks to land claims and slavery issues. Again arrested and jailed for theft of cotton. But here Bowen built political power by black loyalty.

This loyalty was built by Bowen, Albert Gallatin and Pillsbury to form a deep and powerful Republican Party in South Carolina. Bowen became a Congressman while Gallatin and Pillsbury dominated state and local politics in South Carolina’s especially in the most important city of Charleston.

Modern day elections began in South Carolina with passage of the March 1870 Election Act. Of South Carolina’s 4 Congressional seats, 2 seats were contested. Whittemore’s seat was contested. Another crooked Republican as he sold cadetships to West Point for $500 to prominent politician’s sons. Later caught and resigned from Congress, re elected to congress then denied his seat. So then spent his years in the South Carolina Legislature.

I take the reader on a true and historically accurate journey through not only 3 years of the contested election but to capture the political, social, economic and financial market times of the period. Gold played a vital and truly fascinating role to economic times and was valued in relation to bond issuance. The Gold standard was practiced to bond payments and the Confederate currency severely devalued to match the Northern Greenback currency. The term greenback derived as the name of the northern currency in the 1860’s.

The focus of the book was Christopher Columbus Bowen but through research I found an extraordinary story never before told nor ever addressed. As crooked and devious as Bowen was, he actually became a Sheriff of Charleston and served 2 terms. He split from Gallatin and Pillsbury and formed his own faction of the Republican Party.

Much information was packed into about 75? pages and 17 maps of South Carolina, the four counties involved in the 1870 election and much more. Links are provided to the 1865 and 1868 South Carolina Constitutions and to the 1868 Convention to reform South Carolina as mandated by the Union of the north.

The original purpose to 7 months of intense research and writing was to publish in an academic journal. And for no money. Not only did I not want to wait 3 and 4 months for a yea or nay reply to publication but I’m also not waiting for publican 6 and 9 months later. Then maximum acceptance to journals is 30 pages and I continued to write as I felt as if 30 pages didn’t dent the entire story that I wanted told correctly and historically. The research documents derived from original sources. Not one word from second hand information.

So only option was a book. The part that bothers me is this book is self published and a large fee is involved. The price of the book and question to retrieval of my investment is unknown. The work however is not done for money but for the love of my own work and effort.

The complete Bowen story however remains untold as his overall objective was to unseat Governor Scott and become the next governor of South Carolina. Bowen went after Scott and his crooked land deals day after day through the Dennis Huirley Committee in the South Carolina House of Representatives. Bowen failed so became elected as Sheriff of Charleston.

While elected and as trouble always follows Bowen, accusation of Murderer to Colonel Parker haunted Bowen since 1864. The 17 year old Grimes who committed the murder would also re appear to assist in Bowen’s defeat for a run as governor and to influence the denial to his seat in Congress.

Well Bowen while Sheriff sued the Charleston Daily news for Libel due to murder accusations and sent Charleston on a wild journey in 1875. Bowen at the time was married to Susan Pettigru, whose father was a powerful judge of Charleston and influential family to this very day. This would be Bowen’s 3rd wife and he was arrested and tried for Bigamy. But later pardoned by General Grant thanks to Susan Pettigru. Readers would just love this woman. She was beautiful, powerful, intelligent and accomplished author. Her love and loyalty to Bowen and her influence to President’s Grant’s wife Julia allowed Bowen to again escape trouble.

So research is compiled to ask the question do I have a Bowen part 2 to complete. As I just received the final research document, the answer is I don’t know.

Brian Twomey

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AUD/USD at 0.7900’s rose 2000 pips in 11 months from 0.5900 lows in January 2020 while AUD/JPY traveled 1900 pips from 64.00’s. The RBA cut OCR yet again to 0.10 and AUD continued its massive rise. Recall past articles just a few short years ago to reveal OCR and AUD contain negative correlation at -90%. Written only a few short years ago but covered 10 years of data and enough to account for any future RBA cuts.

The smart move for the RBA particularly under most respected big Glenn Stevens was raise OCR to drop AUD as was Stevens desire for a lower AUD. Big Glenn Stevens expertise however was in Economics rather than market assessment and trading. Lowe is quite different as he contains a degree of understanding to markets and particularly interest rates.

At 0.25%, the RBA would remain competitive to its partner at the RBNZ at 0.25% and far above all nations current interest rate settings. The RBA’s position to retain OCR to positive rather than negative rates offered a daily fixed interest rate system against a negatively correlated AUD. The RBA at 0.25% contained much more room to adjust daily interest rates to its desired AUD levels but now the RBA is completely stuck with a fixed interest rate system and an unwanted AUD level.

OCR has only one way to travel and its up unless the RBA adopts negative interest rates which is no big move as the interest rate scale adjusts from positive to negative. OCR will remain negative to AUD only under a different interest rate number.

While the RNBZ retains 0.25 OCR, NZD/USD rose 1500 pips from 0.5800 to 0.7300’s and accomplished in 10 months from April 2020. NZD is no different from any currency pair on the planet however the RBNZ is the smarter central bank among all central banks due to its ability to manage daily OCR and NZD to its desired moves and levels.

NZD’s 10 year yield dropped 6 points, the 5 year dropped 4 points and the 2 year fell 3 points. The difference between NZD before and after the RBNZ statement is Zero and no effect to the exchange rate. RBNZ interest rates from yesterday to today failed to change and NZD won’t change except to trade its normal daily movements.

Stimulus remains but no daily interest rate changes under new or existing stimulus is meaningless. Correct is stimulus automatically drops interest rates as traditional money supply/ stimulus and interest rate relations shares its negative relationship. The central banks managed to fix the interest rate system within their own economies under strict authoritarian control.

NZD/USD rose today rose from 0.7360 to 0.7392 or 32 pips. NZD didn’t even trade to its daily target at 0.7408 and 0.7403. Did we know last evening the RBNZ delivered a monetary policy statement. Does it matter. No it doesn’t under a fixed interest system.

The RBNZ could’ve delivered a statement that said it would spend every last NZD nickel on stimulus but if interest rates remained the same then the results to NZD trade would’ve remained the exact same.

The Inflation story no longer flies as interest rates remain the exact same everyday. Inflation under the RBA and RBNZ scheme however is far different than any central bank as Inflation must be understood from Trade Ables to Non Tradeables. And here is found the Exports and Imports and exports says the RBNZ is running above imports. This says Inflation is contained and not a problem to run wild. The RBNX factors Inflation to Oil at 0.4 and as OIL remains elevated then this further reveals Inflation remains a non existent problem for the RBNZ.

The S&P’s from reported overbought status dropped 139 points so far from 3958 to 3803 and a long way to drop. Gold remains under 1815. The DXY remains within 89.95 to 91.43 however current 90.03 trades at the lower end.

GBP/JPY broke 148.31 and traded to 150.11 highs or overall 2400 pips from 126 lows. Watch EUR/JPY 128.16.

USD/CAD is on the verge of a break at 1.2586 and 1.2582. A break lower places USD/CAD from 1.2582 to 1.2029 and targets 1.2305. USD/CAD dropped 2000 pips from 1.4500’s. DXY will decide CAD’s fate.

Here’s AUD/USD for the next 12 months

0.7309, 0.7637, 0.7821, 0.7941, 0.8062, 0.8187 and 0.8303.

Here’s NZD/USD.

0.6840, 0.7120, 0.7267, 0.7356. 0.7445 and 0.7535. However 0.7400’s NZD is not on the radar screen in its current MA’s to understand the depth of overbought.

Brian Twomey

Fx Empire doesn’t focus on EM currencies.

USD/BRL From close 5.3826,. Short term oversold. Long term, deeply overbought. Watch big break 5.3700. Above 5.3700 targets 5.3926 and 5.4001 easily. Below 5.3700 targets 5.3550 and 5.3399 easily.

CAD/ZAR Big break 11.8052 from close 11.6448. Above 11.8052 targets 11.9444 easily. Above 11.8052 then USD higher and EUR/USD, GBP/USD trend change lower.

USD/RON. Close 4.0212, Big break 4.0460, above targets 4.0619. Look at longs this week 4.0142 targets 4.0301.

USD/MYR 4.0405 close, big break 4.0677, above targets 4.0867. Oversold short term. Nothing special MYR, never is actually. USD/RON better pair, moves well and drives MYR.

USD/HUF. Close 295.76 close, big break 297.46, above target 299.71. Look at longs 294.57 and 294.08 to target 296.89.

USD/PLN. Close 3.7007, Big break 3.7322, above targets 3.7463 easily. Longs this week 3.6971 and 3.6901 to target 3.7182 and 3.7252. Best trade this week.

USD/MXN. Close 20.4338, big break for lower 20.3660. Below targets 20.2616 and 20.1572. Short term oversold, overbought longer term. Shorts this week 20.78 and 20.88 to target 20.47.

USD/TRY Close 6.9711. Told all we see TRY at 6. Remains massively overbought long to medium term. Long way to drop. Deep oversold this week. Big break for higher 7.2595. Longs 6.9645 and 6.9350 to target 7.1415 on break 7.0235. Easy target.

USD/ZAR. Close 14.6818, Big break 15.1426 above targets 15.4220. Longs 14.5839 and 14.5131 to target 14.9331. Nothing special to ZAR as reported to long term targets.

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.

DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.

GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.

EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.

Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.

NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.

Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.

USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.

Brian Twomey

Measured in 4 quadrants or 12 1/2 years for each period for a total of 50 years, GBP/USD remains in a 50 year downtrend since the 1972 free float.

From 1972 – 1984, GBP/USD traded 2.6110 to 1.3075 lows in August 1984 or 1300 pips and a mid rate at 1.9592.

From 1984 -1996, GBP/USD traded 2.0105 highs in September 1992 and 1.0790 lows in February 1985 or 9315 pips and a mid rate at 1.5447. The unusually large pip movements is attributed to the September 1985 Plaza and February 1987 Louvre Accords The Plaza Accords allowed USD depreciation while the Louvre Accords sought to stop USD’s decline.

From 1996 – 2008, GBP/USD traded highs at 2.1162 in November 2007 and 1.3679 lows in January 2001 or 7483 pips and a mid rate at 1.7420.

From 2008 -2021, GBP/USD traded highs at 1.9844 August 2008 to 1.1981 lows January 2017 or 7863 pips and a mid rate at 1.5912.

From 2019 to 2021 and 1.1986 lows to current 1.4035 highs, GBP/USD traveled 2049 pips or 1025 pips per year to a mid rate at 1.3010 or close to the current 5 year average at 1.3069.

From the 50 year period at 2.6110 highs to 1.0790 lows, a mid rate exists at 1.8450. GBP/USD historically from current 1.3998 remains quite low however not only is GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs massively overbought but vital levels now approaches.

5, 10 and 14 year Averages

Current GBP/USD trades 1368 pips between 5 and 10 year averages from 1.3069 to 1.4437. Prior to 1.4437 exists a huge line at exactly 1.4300. Above 1.4437 exist 1.5254 at the 14 year average or 817 pips. Historically, its impossible for a currency price to exist within a 10 and 14 year average due to compressed ranges as a massive breakout move always occurs.

Below exists 4 massive support lines at 1.3832, 1.3753, 1.3684 and 1.3609. A break of 1.3609 is required not only for a much lower GBP but a massive 540 pip trade range.

Not only is GBP/USD against 1.4300 and 1.4437 but GBP/JPY approaches its 10 year average at 148.30 and currently trades between 5 and 10 year averages from 142.39 to 148.30 or 591 pips. GP/USD trades 1368 pips between 5 and 10 year averages while GBP/JPY trades 591 and less than 1/2 GBP/USD.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP from current 0.8647 trades between 5 and 10 year averages from 0.8729 to 0.8414 or 313 pips. GBP/EUR from current 1.1564 trades between 5 and 10 year averages from 1.1472 to 1.1937. GBP/USD breaks lower when EUR/GBP trades above 0.8729.

For the week, trade instruction is short anywhere and for any GBP currency pair due to massive overbought however GBP/USD targets 1.3750 .At 1.3750, GBP/USD remains deeply overbought. No thrills and caution to GBP/NZD.

Brian Twomey

As bottom currency pair to 60 + currencies to include EM’s, NZD/USD for the past 3 months ranged from 0.7005 to 0.7321 or 316 pps and 222 pips in the last 2 months. NZD at current prices is contained at 179 pips from the 14 year average at 0.7267 to its vital high / low point at 0.7088. At 0.7088 and a rising line, the NZD showdown is on the way as ranges compress by the week.

A lower NZD automatically assists to a drop in non USD currencies GBP/USD, EUR/USD and AUD/USD. Required for an NZD/USD drop is NZD/CAD breaks 0.9091, NZD/CHF 06367 and NZD/JPY must clear its 10 year average at 75.46. NZD/USD is following NZD/CAD to trade in tight 200 pip ranges while NZD/JPY remains in severe overbought territory.

GBP/USD next above confronts 1.4300 and the 10 year average at 1.4438 while massive overbought GBP/JPY remains confined between 5 and 10 year averages at 142.40 to 148.29. Both GBP/USD and GBP/JPY as GBP drivers force GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF into stratospheric overbought and untouchable as long trade currencies. Short GBP currencies are the only trade strategies available especially to GBP/USD’s 900 pip rise in the past 3 months from 1.3100’s to 1.4000’s.

Close Prices Forecasts

EUR

EUR/USD 1.2082
EUR/JPY 127.22
EUR/CAD 1.5408
EUR/NZD 1.6799
EUR/AUD 1.5548.

GBP

GBP/USD 1.3921
GBP/JPY 146.56
GBP/CHF 1.2453
GBP/CAD Doesn’t matter, short anywhere
GBP/NZD 1.9223
GBP/AUD 1.7818

AUD

AUD/USD 0.7776
AUD/JPY 81.95
AUD/CHF 0.6956
AUD/CAD 0.9877

NZD

NZD/USD 0.7224
NZD/JPY 76.16
NZD/CHF 0.6437
NZD/CAD 0.8142

USD/CAD 1.2704
USD/JPY 105.18

Brian Twomey

Yesterday’s EUR/USD at its critical predicament contained two choices: either trade 50 pips higher to 1.2114 and 1.2117 from 1.2065 then short again or break its vital high /low point at 1.2040 and trade to 1.2026. EUR/USD decided to break support at 1.2040 and trade 14 pips lower to 1.2026. EUR/USD for the past 20 hours continues to trade around critical 1.2040.

Overall currency markets are in the great deadlock between natural opposites EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Current USD/JPY at 105.74 trades 84 pips above its vital high/ low point at 104.89. This line is rising. EUR/USD trades around its current high /low point at 1.2039. This line moved 1 pip lower since yesterday’s ECB at 10 A.M. EST. EUR/USD and USD/JPY achieved its crowning achievement by rhe great divide to currency pairs.

USD/CAD at 1.2600’s and GBP/USD at 1.3800’s or 1200 pips informs this distance is far to wide. GBP/USD trade to 1.4000’s while USD/CAD was located at 1.2500’s or 1500 pips assisted to diminish the distance yet 1200 pips informs a big move is ahead. Normal distance is 3 to 500 pips.

For the past four weeks as written, JPY cross pairs were and continue to trade in severely overbought territory. The degree of overbought is recognized as 500 pips from AUD/USD 0.7700’s and AUD/JPY at 82.00’s and 500 pips from NZD/USD 0.7100’s to NZD/JPY 76.00’s. Normal is in the vicinity of 100 to 200 pips maximum because NZD/USD and NZD/JPY are the exact same currency pairs much the same as AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.

The divide grows wider at 800 pips from GBP/USD 1.3600’s to GBP/JPY at 147.00’s and 700 pips from EUR/USD 1.2000’s to 127.00’s for EUR/JPY.. Normal trades 100 to 200 pips because EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are the exact same currency pairs just as GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are the same pairs.

USD pairs EUR/NZD at 1.6700’s trades 2500 pips to GBP/NZD 1.9200’s. Normal trades around 1600 to 1800 pips and 700 pips off kilter.

The EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship is distinguished by the massive and extreme divide between and among currency pair prices, particularly USD as the primary driver to current prices.

Today’s trade is presented as a two trade option by matching significant day trade support, resistance and levels. Short the highs and long the lows.

USD/JPY highs Vs EUR/USD Lows.

USD/JPY up target 106.43 vs EUR/USD 1.1985 lows.
USD/JPY 106.36 Vs EUR/USD 1.1998.
USD/JPY 106.29 V EUR/USD 1.2011

USD/JPY 106.16 Vs EUR/USD 1.2015
USD/JPY 106.09 Vs EUR/USD 1.2023
USD/JPY 106.03 Vs EUR/USD 1.2028.
USD/JPY 105.96 Vs EUR/USD 1.2034.

EUR/USD Highs Vs USD/JPY lows

EUR/USD 1.2107 Vs USD/JPY 105.37
EUR/USD 1.2099 Vs USD/JPY 105.44
EUR/USD 1.2091 Vs USD/JPY 105.51

EUR/USD 1.2076 Vs USD/JPY 105.58
EUR/USD 1.2068 Vs USD/JPY 105.63
EUR/USD 1.2061 Vs USD/JPY 105.71
EUR/USD 1.2053 Vs USD/JPY 105.79
EUR/USD 1.2049 Vs USD/JPY 105.87.

EUR/USD is a complete opposite pair to USD/JPY however prices never match pip for pip as the relationship runs 7.62 pips for EUR/USD Vs 6.62 for USD/JPY.As a side note all market prices especially Stock Indices are factored the exact same as a currency price. The difference is in the name and number yet its all the same.

Brian Twomey

Gold broke the exact line at 1815.65 and traded to lows at 1783.31 and the next target is located at 1728.91. As written many months ago, DXY, Gold and the S&P’s together traded above 5 year averages. Gold and DXY as not only complementary financial instruments that must by no other choice trade together in the same location by market order but both are non risk assets and traded against the risk asset of the S&P’s.

DXY eventually broke its 5 year average and traded to 89.22 lows, S&P’s traded higher and Gold became the misplaced financial instrument. DXY below the 5 year average at 95.00’s and Gold above at 1461.20 informs Gold remains misplaced.

Either Gold breaks below 1461.20 and joins DXY in its rightful position in the proper market order or DXY breaks above its 5 year average at 95.00 and the S&P’s trades below its 5 year at 2722.43. Its customary for DXY, Gold and the S&P’s to share negative correlations and nearly impossible for a positive correlational relationship unless the relationship of off kilter.

Silver also trades above its 5 year average at 17.74 and misaligned to DXY and the S&P’s. Silver’s first break is located at 21.72 then 19.36 and 19.06. Silver’s best move to target 17.00’s is located on the break below 19.06. The first target is established at 26.43. Not much to report to Silver as its price is a dead issue and not worth the trouble. EUR/GBP and NZD/USD not only moves far and wide but both earn more profits and quicker than a Silver trade.

The S&P’s long 3915.15 to its first target at 3924.99 achieved its destination however lows traded to 3918.52. Not much existed to the S&P trade overall nor was much expected particularly after a Monday holiday and no change to daily interest rates.

S&P and DAX Trades

Today’s S&P’s for a quick trade is long 3912.92 to target 3922.75 then 3927.66.
Today’s DAX for anothe quick day trade is long 13994.27 to target 14029.43 then 14054.60.

EUR/USD

Yesterday’s EUR/USD dropped exactly at the confluence of the daily and weekly entry at 1.2168 and target at 1.2065 achieved however lows traded to 1.2063 for an extra 2 pips.

EUR/USD Trade

For the 2ng leg to the weekly trade as posted Sunday, EUR/USD is in a crucial position and quite the opposite to the ease of the first trade yesterday. EUR/USD’s significant high/low point is located at 1.2040 and a break lower then much room exists for a drop to 1.1947.

Today’s longs are located at 1.2065 for the weekly target at 1.2114 and the day trade location is 1.2117.
To add a 3rd leg due because our trades are continuous and never end, short at 1.2114 and 1.2117 targets 1.2094 and 1.2090. EUR/USD low point today is located at 1.2033 and 1.2026 and the daily target on a break of 1.2040.

Brian Twomey

In relation to January 3rd long term forecasts and MA inflection points and targets posted once every 3 or 5 months and to 5, 10 and 14 year averages, overall currency market prices stand at critical junctures to travel higher or to embark on a deep correction.

When the ECB adopted negative interest rates in June 2014, the EUR/USD was located at highs of 1.3694 then traded to 1.0346 lows or 3348 pips by June 2017 on a continuation of deeper negative rates. The 1674 mid rate from 3348 then placed EUR/USD at 1.2020 from 1.0346 and EUR/USD accomplished this mission in January 2021 or 4 years later from 2017.

Not only is 1.2020 a vital average in the long term model to forecast a much lower EUR on a break but EUR/USD performed far better on the downside than its current rise since 2017.

The 0.0837 mid rate from 0.1674 places EUR/USD longer term at 1.1541 from 1.2351 and 1.1787 from the 14 year average at 1.2624. The mid rate from 1.2624 to 1.0346 lows still places EUR/USD at 1.1485.

Highlighted and presented by examples in previous articles, all EUR/USD trends reverse to satisfy EUR/USD’s purpose as a neutral currency.

As forecast August 2020 when EUR/USD traded at 1.1800’s, the EUR/USD would complete its target at 1.2351 and EUR/USD traded to highs at 12363 at the same time DXY indicated and achieved 89.22 lows.

To respectfully inform readers on a side bar note, many long term targets to 5 , 7 and 1000 pips were forecast and completed publicly over the past many years.

Current EUR/USD trades between 1.2106 and 1.2624 and a mid rate remains now at 1.2365. EUR/USD’s average at 1.2624 is dropping by the week while 1.2106 at the 10 year average and 1.1386 at the 5 year remain stasis. While EUR/USD’s weekly range also drops by the week, EUR will be extremely lucky to complete a 100 pip rise.

As 1.2106 and 1.2020 eventually break lower then 1.2624, 1.2106 and 1.2020 will continue its long term drop simultaneously to a much lower EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Weekly Trade

As posted Sunday for the weekly trade to reiterate, Short 1.2169 and 1.2176 to target 1.2065.

The 18 Weekly trades offered and traded every week for many years, most vital levels are provided to not only follow the trades but to allow traders to take profits anywhere along the price path.

EUR/USD”s weekly levels are displayed as follows: 1.2142, 1.2115, 1.2088 and 1.2075. Most vital from today’s prices is 1.2154 and any price above begins overbought and a short only strategy.

Daily Trades

As EUR/USD is traded twice daily from Sunday to Friday or 10 trades per week, dailies offer the ability to profit from not only extra pips but daily trade forecasts are timed perfectly to weekly entry prices.
EUR/USD’s upside target today is located at 1.2199 on a break of 1.2168.

Today’s 1.2168 coincides perfectly to the weekly entry at 1.2169 and 1.2176. The only upside levels from 1.2168 exist at 1.2175, 1.2183 and 1.2191.

EUR/USD’s highs this week achieved 1.2164 or 46 pips from the close at 1.2118. Its a matter of time before EUR embarks on a long term trend lower.

Overall, deeply oversold CAD/ZAR as EUR/USD’s perfect USD opposite currency pair and an early alert forecasts a target of 12.24 on a break of 11.82. CAD/ZAR currently trades at 11.43 and 39 pips from its vital MA.. A break of 11.43 signifies not only a lower EUR but a convincing rise and reversal to USD.

Brian Twomey

For the S&P’s tomorrow, a quick day trade and completed not only in increments but multiple longs and shorts in order to capture all if not most of the traded points. Not many points trade daily so therefore its imperative to maximize the available traded points.

S&P

Long 3915.15 to target 3924.99.
Follow the trade by: 3917.61, 3920.07, 3922.53 and 3924.99

Long above 3934.83 to target 3944.67

Follow the trade by 3937.29, 3939.75, 3942.21, then target at 3944.67

Long above 3944.67 to target 3964.09

Follow the trade by: 3947.13, 3949.59, 3952.05, 3954.51, 3956.97, 3959.43, 3961.89 then target 3965.09

Short 3964.09 to target 3944.67.

Short below 3934.83 to target 3924.99.

Brian Twomey

A stock index trade is set up exactly as a currency day trade. No changes. Done by interest rates. Sounds like rocket science but its very simple. Friday morning EUR/USD day trade below

EUR/USD

 Long Short Line 1.2126
Most Important 1.2084 and 12101 Vs 1.2133, 1.2141, 1.2148, 1.2156, 1.2171, 1.2179 and 1.2187

Bottom. 1.2065 achieves by 1.2095 and 1.2081

Upper target 1.2187
 Continuation fail 1.2156

S&P for Tomorrow

Long Short Line 3934.83

Most Important 3879.55 and 3934.83 Vs 3969.25 and 3990.89

Bottom. 3915.15 achieves by 3924.99 and 3920.07

Upper target 3964.09

Continuation fail 3944.67

Strategy for EUR/USD and S&P are exactly the same. Short at or near upper target and long at or near bottom. Normally for stock indexes and currencies bottoms trade to upper target and upper target trades to bottoms. Smart is take no chances so best to trade multiple longs and shorts as the market offers and ensure profits and never to lose.

The set ups are in the presentation and its the same for all stock indices. Never could I send the S&P trade to fxstreet or Fx Empire as simple as it is. A simple 30 point trade and to profit easily 1/2 or 15 points per day and more on better trade days. A 30 point trade doesn’t require a chart, Fib, Stop, Fed speakers, Covid 19 or whatever exists to waste our time. .

A day trade price must achieve destinations just as a currency day trade and ranges rarely break however on rare days when ranges break then extra points are earned by the amount of points outside the range. The price outside the range must trade back to and inside the range. A price outside the range is free money and free points given by the mistake of the market.

Its all in the presentation and note how I offer this trade to Fx Empire. The 30 points is maximized to 30 points up and 30 points down for a total of 60 points. Same for currency trades for multiple longs and shorts. Actual profit to this trade should be right around ?? 30 points, 40 or maybe we catch 50 or 60. Known is profits will be earned and no losses will ever be seen.

Long 3915.15 to target 3924.99.

Long above 3934.83 to target 3944.67

Long above 3934.83 to target 3964.09

Short 3964.09 to target 3944.67.

Short below 3934.83 to target 3924.99.

Brian Twomey

To respectfully indulge words from the last post for context:
Overall, EUR/USD was the first currency in August 2020 to break above its 5 year average at 1.1300’s then the 10 year average in December 2020 at 1.2100’s. EUR/USD is categorized in the class of a risk asset and non USD currency.

EUR/USD’s early break to its 5 year average set remainder 27 currencies on a course of deep perspective as non USD currency pairs had to not only match EUR/USD’s break to significant averages but the 1000 pip rise in GBP/USD, 700 for AUD/USD and other non USD currency pairs traded weekly from overbought to overbought and a non normal price circumstance. EUR/USD’s break threw normal price markets deeply off course since August 2020.

Non USD currency pairs such as DXY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY only option since August 2020 was to concur with EUR/USD and non USD rises by trading deeply oversold week to week and to break 5 and 10 year averages.

EUR/USD and non USD currency pairs as risk assets followed risk asset counterparts in stock markets higher to current richter scale overbought levels. The S&P’s at 3900.00’s trade at extreme overbought levels. The DAX achieved all time highs. Stock market longs are virtually impossible until a significant correction occurs.

DXY

DXY for example just broke above its 10 year monthly average at 89.95 and contains a long way to travel to the 5 year average at 95.00’s. A currency pair to trade at a 10 year monthly average is not only a low, low price but extraordinary and highlights the magnitude to the rises and falls since last August.

Next averages above to break are located at 91.43, 92.78 then 94.39 and 94.16. DXY from monthly averages 1 to 7 years faces stiff resistance from 94.00’s to 95.00’s. A break through this brick wall then DXY will travel easily to 97.00’s and 99.00’s.

DXY below 89.95 targets 86.43, 84.32 and 81.83 at extreme oversold.

Targets for DXY above 89.95 are located at 90.86, above 91.43 then 92.15, 92.47 and 92.66. Above 92.78 targets 92.87 and 92.89.

DXY from current ranges from 89.95 to 92.78 trade at its widest ranges. As DXY travels higher then ranges severely compress. The opposite is true for EUR/USD as the higher it trades then ranges open much wider.
Despite a low price and trade below monthly 5 year averages, DXY is mid range to oversold/ overbought.

S&P’s

DXY viewed from the S&P’s informs trade location miles above the 5 year monthly average at 2722.43 and at overbought to extremes. Overbought S&P’s reveals a healthy correction is on the way, DXY higher and EUR/USD as well as non USD currency pairs to follow much lower.

The S&P’s are held by immediate averages at 3257.68, 3119.54 and 2989.17. A correction targets 3598.53, 3416.84 and 3300.20. A 400 point correction to the S&P’s assumes DXY travels 300 ish pips higher and breaks above 92.78 to trade between 92.78 to 94.39.

S&P averages from 3257.68 travels every 100 points to 2200.00’s at the 10 year monthly average. Current S&P’s ranges are fairly suppressed however as S&P’s drop then ranges expand as the downside gains progresses.

GOLD

Gold trades above its 5 year monthly average at 1461.20 and trades misaligned to the S&P’s. Gold and the DXY are the same assets and should trade below 5 year monthly averages while the S&P’s trade above.
Gold’s drop is held by 1815.65 and below targets 1642.17 and 1543.98. Gold is deeply overbought from a medium and long term perspective. Gold is finished above at 1943.62 and short is the only trade available.

Moving forward, long USD and DXY is the best option while short Gold and the S&P’s although Gold lacks any real range capability. Gold viewed from 150 to 200 points is a viable option as it fails to contain any big price moves.

DAX

Sentiment index of institutional investors

DAX (change from previous survey): 14.020 (+100 Pts.)
Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index institutional investors: -4 points (status of previous survey: +32 points)

Brian Twomey

From January 3rd and long term forecasts, the last 4 weeks trade ranges are viewed in relation to significant MA”s to complete a full month. To AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD was added 5 year averages.
Overall, EUR/USD was the first currency in August 2020 to break above its 5 year average at 1.1300’s then the 10 year average in December 2020 at 1.2100’s. EUR/USD is categorized in the class of a risk asset and non USD currency.

EUR/USD’s early break to its 5 year average set remainder 27 currencies on a course of deep perspective as non USD currency pairs had to not only match EUR/USD’s break to significant averages but the 1000 pip rise in GBP/USD, 700 for AUD/USD and other non USD currency pairs traded weekly from overbought to overbought and a non normal price circumstance. EUR/USD’s break threw normal price markets deeply off course since August 2020.

Non USD currency pairs such as DXY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY only option since August 2020 was to concur with EUR/USD and non USD rises by trading deeply oversold week to week and to break 5 and 10 year averages.

DXY for example just broke above its 10 year average at 89.95 and contains a long way to travel to the 5 year average at 95.00’s.

Today, markets are ready to slowly embark on a deep 3 and 500 pip correction as currency prices traded to lowest and highest depths of oversold and overbought. This will take time as highlighted in the January 3rd post to long term forecasts because currency prices remain in 3 and 400 pip trading ranges and contained within vital breaks to 5 and 10 year averages. No better time than the present to position for the impending correction.

A correction means a break of 5 and 10 year averages to only trade in new 3 and 400 pip trade ranges as markets and all financial instruments range far more than trend. Consider EUR/USD’s 1000 pip rise from 1.1300 to 1.2300 by 166 pips per month for 6 months. The same similarities exist among all currency prices.

The Month highlighted by significant breaks and 5 and 10 year Averages

 AUDUSD January 8 to February 14

January 3 – 8: AUD/USD: 5 year average 0.7306 Vs 0.7498 Vs 0.7821 or 323 pips
January 8: 0.7306 Vs 0.7530 Vs 0.7821 or 291 pips and a 32 pip compression to overall ranges.
January 14: 0.7306 Vs 0.7535 Vs 0.7821 or 286 pips and a 5 pip compression from last week and 37 pips overall in 3 weeks.

January 21 to 28: 0.7306 Vs 0.7535 and 0.7821 or no change.
January 28 to Feb 5: 0.7306, 0.7535 and 0.7821 and no change.
Feb 5 to 14: 0.7306, 0.7531 and 0.7821 or no change.
Feb 14 to 19: 0.7306, 0.7565 and 0.7821 or 256 pips and overall compression of 67 pips from January 3 to 8.

Between 0.7565 to 0.7821 are minor trade levels.

Close Prices

January 9th, AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7765 then opened January 16th at 0.7700 or a 65 pip week.
January 16 to 23, AUD/USD opened at 0.7700 to close at 0.7710 for a 10 pip difference.
January 23rd to January 30 AUD opened at 0.7710 Vs close 0.7637 or 73 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5 AUD opened at 0.7637 and closed 0.7675 or 38 pips.
Feb 5 to 14: 0.7675 to current 0.7759 or 84 pips.

EUR/USD Ranges

EUR/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2119, 1.2020, 1.2038 Vs 1.2630.
From 1.2119 to 1.2630 = 511 pips.

January 8 to 14 : 1.2116, 1.2020, 1.2030 vs 1.2628. From 1.2116 to 1.2628 = 512 pips.
EUR/USD moved 1 pip in 8 trade days.

January 14 to 21 : 1.2113, 1.2020, 1.2034 Vs 1.2627 = 514 pips
EUR/USD gained 3 pips to its overall range in 3 weeks.

Feb 5 to 14 : 1.2020, 1.2016, 1.2110, 1.2626 or 610 pips and a range expansion of 96 pips.
Feb 14 to 19: 5 year average 1.1386, 1.2020, 1.2107 and 1.2624 or 517 pips, 87 pips from 1.2107 to 1.2020 and 634 pips from 1.2020 to 1.1386, mid point at 1.1703.

EUR/USD Weekly Closes

Weekly January 9 to 16, EUR/USD opened at 1.2216 and closed 1.2074 or 142 pips.
January 16 to 23rd: 1.2074 to 1.2169 or 95 pips
January 23 to 30th: 1.2169 to 1.2132 or 37 pips.

January30 to Feb 5: 1.2132 to 1.2048 or 84 pips.
Feb 5 to 14: 1.2048 to 1.2118 or 70 pips.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2586 Vs 1.2924 and 1.2976. From 1.2586 to 1.2976 = 390 Pips.

January 14 to 23rd: 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change over 8 trade days.
January 23 to 30 : 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change.
January 30 to Feb 5: 1.2586, 1.2889 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change for January.

Feb 5 to 14: 1.2586, 1.2858 and 1.2976 or 272 pips and 118 pips.

USD/CAD Closes

January 9 to 16: 1.2684 to 1.2736 or 52 pips.
January 16 to 23rd: 1.2736 to 1.2729 or 6 pips.
January 23rd to 30th: 1.2729 to 1.2773 or 44 pips.
January 30 to Feb 5: 1.2773 to 1.2756 or 17 pips.
Feb 5 to 14: 1.2756 to 1.2688 or 68 pips.

GBP/USD Ranges

GBP/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.3351 and 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 481 pips from 1.3832 to 1.3551.
January 8 to 16: 1.3408 and 1.3360 to 1.3832. From 1.3832 to 1.3408 = 424 pips and a compression of 57 pips to overall ranges.

January 23 to 31: This week: 1.3448, 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 384 pips, a compression of 40 pips from last week and 97 pip in 3 weeks from 481.
January 31 to Feb 5: 1.3360, 1.3477, 1.3832 or 355 pips and a 126 pip range compression.
Feb 5 to 14: 1.3061, 1.3360, 1.3536, 1.3832 and 1.4300. Ranges factor 468 pips, 296, 176 and 299 pips.

GBP/USD Closes

January 9 to 16th: 1.3554 to 1.3575 or 21 pips
January 16 to 23rd: 1.3575 to 1.3671 or 96 pips.
January 23rd to 30th: 1.3671 to 1.3688 or 17 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 1.3688 to 1.3727 or 39 pips.
Feb 5 to 14: 1.3727 to 1.3844 or 117 pips.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY. January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 139.25 Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 146.14 to 139.25.

January 23 to 30: 139.76, Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 139.15 to 146.14 or 638 pips from 146.14 to 139.76.
Bottom average rose by 51 pips to compress ranges by exactly 51 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 140.25, 142.66, 144.31 Vs 146.14 or 589 pips and an overall range compression of 100 pips.
Feb 5 to 14: 141.00, 142.54 and 148.25 or 571 pips vs 154 pips from 142.54 to 141.00.
Feb 14: 141.75, 142.46 Vs 148.27 and 150.53

GBP/JPY Closes

January 9 to 16: 140.92 to 141.03 or 11 pips.
January 16 to 23rd: 141.03 to 141.95 or 92 pips.
January 23 to 30th: 141.95 to 143.39 or 144 pips.
January 30 to Feb 5: 143.39 to 144.63 or 124 pips.
Feb 5 to 14: 144.63 to 145.34 or 71 pips.

The Week

Week 3 to JPY cross pairs trading at significant overbought levels however all trade near vital breaks higher. EUR/JPY’s 14 year average is located at 128.24, AUD/JPY 79.70, NZD/JPY 75.44 and CAD/JPY at 81.45.

The impending break for AUD/JPY at 79.70 and NZD/JPY 75.44 will assist to a deeper correction to AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Watch USD/JPY at 104.72 and trades above while EUR/USD also trades above 1.2030 in a misaligned situation.

GBP/USD and all GBP pairs remain deeply overbought. Problem pairs GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD are slowly expanding ranges over the past 2 weeks and will assist in a lower GBP across the range of GBP pairs.

EUR/GBP sits on its 5 year average at 0.8726 and is deeply oversold. Higher EUR/GBP also confirms a lower GBP.

Watch GBP/NZD this week as it trades above 1.9136 while oversold EUR/NZD trades below 1.7011. GBP/NZD is forecast this week as active moves and ranges comply.

Oversold USD/CAD 1.2858 should break in days ahead. The 5 year average is located 1.3141.

EUR/USD Weekly Trade offered as multiple longs and shorts plus trade levels to watch the trade unfold.

Short 1.2169 and 1.2176 to target 1.2065. Must cross 1.2142, 1.2115, 1.2088 and 1.2075.
Short below 1.2030 to target 1.1947.

Long 1.1947 to target 1.2002.
Cautious long 1.2065 to target 1.2114.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD most significant high/ low point is located at 1.2026. A break however at 1.2020 represent a wholesale trend change for a lower EUR/USD. Current EUR/USD trades above 1.2026.

USD/JPY on the other side trades above its significant high/ low point at 104.72. Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY are mis aligned. Either USD/JPY remains above 104.72 and trades higher or EUR/USD must break below 1.2026 and 1.2020 to trade much lower to 1.1700’s. In the interim, both pairs are in a standoff.

Noted from USD/JPY constituents, USD/CAD trades below its high / low point at 1.2867 and USD/CHF below 0.8980. USD/JPY remains the outlier USD pair for the past two weeks.
From the January 3rd long term forecasts, the next major USD/JPY inflection point is located at 106.00 exactly and USD/JPY traded to 105.75 then dropped.

While 106.00 above represents the next break, below is located the 10 year average at 103.33 and a 267 pip range.

EUR/USD however must break below its 10 year average at 1.2107 to target the vital breaks at 1.2026 and 1.2020. Above is located the 14 year average at 1.2625. As EUR/USD trades above 1.2107 then the wide range becomes 1.2625 to 1.2107 and a 518 pip range. EUR/USD overall hasn’t changed its 518 pip range since January 8 as important MA’s are droppoing simultaneously.

Most important point at 1.2625 however is dropping ever so slowly week to week as is 1.2107. A much lower EUR/USD is ahead in weeks to come.

Between 1.2107 and 1.2624 exists minor daily and weekly trade points.

USD/JPY however above 106.00 exists a vital average every 100 pips until the 5 year average at 109.09. USD/JPY’s counterpart due to the exact same pair is CHF/JPY and it trades above 116.20.

For USD/JPY today, best shorts are located at 105.37 and 105.30 to target 104.90. Longs are located at 104.31 and 104.37 to target 104.64. The break at 104.72 however represents a lower USD/JPY next week.

EUR/USD close price today is forecast at 1.2109 and below 1.2137. This places EUR/USD next week between 1.2082 to 1.2137 for next week.

USD/JPY above 104.72 represents a problem for AUD/JPY as it trades above its 5 year average at 79.70 and NZD/JPY trades above its 10 year average at 75.42. Both are mandatory breaks for AUD/USD to trade lower and break its vital MA at its rising line at 0.7557 and NZD/USD 0.7070.

Any price today for AUD/JPY ar 81.57 is a good short to target 81.17 and today’s close price is forecast at 80.96.

Not only are all JPY cross pairs richter scale overbought but most trade near vital inflection points. EUR/JPY 128.24 is next above Vs below at 125.93 or a 231 pip range. Close price forecast today for EUR/JPY at 126.83 places EUR/JPY at perfect neutral to begin next week.

GBP/JPY trades deeply overbought between vital 5 and 10 year averages at 142.47 and 148.27. Good short today is found at 145.26 to target the close price forecast at 144.08. Quite a distance for a Friday. Above 144.08 then GBP/JPY remains deeply overbought heading into next week.

Overbought GBP/USD forecast close price is located at 1.3741. Shorts today are located at 1,.3866 and 1.3857 to target 1.3772 then 1.3741.

For oversold EUR/CAD, next week 1.5471 high/ low point we’re watching closely.
For high flyer and wide ranger GBP/AUD net week 1.7900 represents the big break. 1.7900 broke this week and traded to 1.7785. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD’s counterpart must break 1.5923 to trade higher. GBP/AUD break at 1.7900 represents an alignment to EUR/AUD as both now trade below respective MA’s.

For oversold USD/CAD, close price today is forecast 1.2753. Shorts today are located at 1.2787 and 1.2773 to target 1.2731 then 1.2696.

Oversold EUR/GBP trades just above its 5 year average at 0.8725.

S&P bottom and long entry is located at 3896.71 and just ahead of 3861.36. Long target is located at 3906.58 for a quick 10 point trade today.

DAX today must trade back to at least 13970.70. Note most vital today at 13926.28 then 14029.00, 14084.78 then 14156.47. Above 13970.70 targets 14029.00.

Brian Twomey

Ranges over last 5 trade days: 219, 228, 581, 224 and 278. A fairly average daily move for the Nikkei is 147 points beginning at 73 points.

Most significant: 29397.23, 29581.40, 29729.55

Bottom. 29415.11. Up target 29733.52

Long 29415.11 to target 29489.02.

Follow by: 29424.34, 29433.58, 29452.06, 29470.53 and 29489.02

Short 29733.52 to target 29648.23

Follow by: 29724.29, 29715.05, 29696.58, 29687.35, 29678.12, 29668.89, 29659.67 and 29650.43.

Another trade by interest rates to achieve targets. Japanese interest rates means Call Rates, Yen Tibor for onshore rates and Yields. Yen Tibor onshore Vs Euroyen offshore employed to factor offshore rates such as EUR/JPY and finacial instruments traded outside Japan.

The bottom at 29415.11 factors as bottoms for Japanese and USD rates however its imperative to trade the Nikkei 225 by Japanese Interest Rates only as USD rates fails to factor correctly for day and 24 hour trades.

The Nikkei 225 is the big mover in relation to the DAX an at average of 70 and 140 point moves, the S&P’s at 30 point ranges, Canada’s TSX Composite at 91 points per day, Australia’s ASX 200 at 34 points per day, Nasdaq at 68 points per day, Euro Stoxx 50 at 18 points per day and FTSE 100 at 40 points per day.

Brian Twomey

The big US release today is CPI and forecast at 1.2%. To accurately trade CPI, 1.2% must transform from a percent to a decimal to align market price decimals to economic release decimals. From 1.2% factors to its decimal at 0.015 or a value of 150 points for stock indicies and 150 pips for currencies.

Given the radical transformation to interest rates in 2016 by the ECB then all central compliance, no longer are 150 point and pip movements seen to any economic release. Consider the S&P’s daily range barely trades 32 points per day, DXY 50 points, EUR/USD barely 60 pips. GBP/USD last week upon the BOE announcement traded hardly 70 pips. Interest rate transformation severely limited daily ranges.

The 150 pips and points must then reflect to the specific ranges of the respective financial instrument. The breakdown from 150 factors to 37 and 18 or more specifically as 18.5 and 37.5 and 0.5 as a terrible number actually means 18 or 19 and 37 calculates to 37 or 38.
The next small polemic is the announcement at 8:30 am when day trades new time based on the ECB transformation runs from 1:30 am EST o 9:00 am then comes the ECB fix. Most significant prices already traded and not much remains for CPI.

Soon the new trade times will run from 2:30 am EST to 10:00 am then the ECB Fix. The ECB eliminated the 8:30 am EST fix to allow a 7 1/2 hour day trade time to ensure ranges would automatically flatten to day trade interest rates. If a point or pip moves in the market then its attribution is due to an interest rate move.

To factor the EUR/USD today for CPI then most vital points from 18 and 37 is located above at 1.2141 and 1.2160 and both points are mid range to the overall day trade. Below points are located at 1.2105 and 1.2086.

Compared to the overall day trade most vital support and resistance points, EUR/USD aligns as 1.2062 bottom then 1.2074, 1.2086 CPI and 1.2090.

Above is located as 1.2141, 1.2153, 1.2160 and 1.2184.

Subtract the CIP points then most vital points today are located at 1.2062, 12074, 1.2090 Vs 1.2153 and 1.2184.

EUR/USD traded highs today at 1.2143 and 1.2113 lows for a 30 pip range. Today’s EUR range failed to dent its overall trade movement ability therefore a day trade remains.

Most perfect trade is located at short 1.2184 to target 1.2153 for 31 pips then long 1.2062 to target 1.2074 then 1.2090 for 28 pips. Overall 31 and 28 pips for a 49 pip trade day.

Brian Twomey

Hi all,

I am now officially a contributor at FxEmpire. The guy contacted me after following for a long time. Much better site than fxstreet and investing com could ever be. Good posts travel to yahoo finance, Nasdaq, worldwide newspapers and many more quality locations.

Currency trading continues and I want to complete this stock market mission to trade all stock indices by hitting exact targets using nation interest rates. The laugh is USD interest rates work for every financial instrument on the planet but they might be off the exact price by a point or two.

Blocked from Linked In when Francesc at fxstreet posted 1 million views then all the big named dumb ass groupies chimed in. I unloaded.

Francesc has 1 million soon to be broke viewers only to start again on the next set of broken accounts. Traders are never cared about with these people. No different at investing com. Francesc is a very nice guy but he fell fast asleep long ago on fxstreet.

My words were taken down. Its always a sunny day in life and markets and never rains.

Luckily or maybe not, I already had another Linked In account so I’m good to go unless or until they may find me. Time will tell.

God bless all as the journey continues

Brian Twomey