Month: May 2021

To future subscribers. All know exactly what is offered daily and weekly for easily 1000 pips per week. Contact [email protected]

Weekly Currency trades contain 4 trades per 18 currency pairs in order to trade continuously throughout the week. Possibly only 2 trades may exist but we’re prepared for any market event including possible crashes.

On 18 currency pairs, 4 trades each is 72 weekly trades. If only 2 trades exist per currency pair equates to 36 trades.

As seen here over many years, trades are not only self explanatory but entries and targets are provided as well as vital levels in order to watch the trades but also to exit at any point along the way. All account sizes are accommodated in this regard.

Weekly profit per currency pair is around 150 pips for 2 trades per currency pair. 1000 pips per week is quite common. Our best week was 2500 pips February 2019 at Brexit time but we traded 10 and 12 currency pairs then.

Essentially, we trade the entire currency market every week and certain EM currencies. Those busy during the week and no time to watch charts or prices then our trades are perfect.

Daily trades amount to 80 trades per week for 8 currency pairs, 90 to include AUD/EUR or EUR/AUD. Day trades represent extra pips for the week while waiting for weekly entries and targets.

All required for traders is click on entry and target and this is carefully factored every week and over many, many years.

After 17 years and much time and effort to study the currency price, its understood and mastered. We trade numbers, not charts, nor are stops required. As I always said , whatever you think you know or thought you knew must be discarded at the door because its all wrong.

We’re miles past and far more experienced than the trading crowds, trade services and crooked websites. .

Brian Twomey, [email protected]

EM currencies as in USD/Other Currency for the last 2 weeks traded deeply oversold to more massively oversold. Week 3 begins no different than the last 2 as prices start at astronomical oversold. Not only are EM ranges severely compressed but weekly range forecasts leaves EM currencies at oversold yet again. USD/TRY as usual begins the week massively overbought.

USD/BRL for the close at 5.2252 forecasts a weekly range and targets from bottom 5.2002 to top at 5.2548. USD/BRL should trade easily to 5.2946 but BRL/USD won’t allow 5.2946 to trade this week.

USD/CNY. From the close at 6.3684, the weekly range and targets forecasts the bottom at 6.3331 to top at 6.4061. The target at 6.4061 is not terrible to normalization however USD/CNY contains much higher targets over time to at least 6.4351.

USD/DKK from the close at 6.0991 forecasts a weekly range and targets at bottom 6.0679 to top at 6.1349. The upper target at 6.1349 fairly normalizes USD/DKK from deep oversold to consider its high /low break is found at 6.1429.

USD/HRK from the close at 6.1648 forecasts a weekly range and targets at bottom 6.1312 and top at 6.1996 and normalizes the Croatian Kuna.

For the 3 currencies starting with 6 as the first number as an exchange rate: 6.3684, 6.0991 and 6.1648 actual reverse exchange rates is 0.1570, 0.1639 and 0.1622. The exchange rates are much closer than what appears and vital to trade crossovers.

USD/HUF from the close at 285.49, weekly range and targets at bottom 277.77 and top at 294.11. At 294.11 is deceptive as 293.52 must break to trade 194.11. Good target 292.01.

USD/MYR from the close at 4.1335, weekly range and targets at bottom 4.1118 and top at 4.1562. Vital to 4.1118 is the break at 4.1187. Overall, USD/MYR ranged for the past 2 weeks and will range this week.

USD/RON from the close at 4.0344, weekly range and targets are located at bottom 4.0685 and to a 4.0701. The top at 4.0701 remains deeply oversold as USD/RON should trade easily 4.0990.

USD/PLN from the close at 3.6776, weekly range and targets are found at 3.6589 and top at 3.6968 and barely normalizes USD/PLN as it should trade to easily 3.7136.

USD/RUB from the close at 73.16, weekly range and targets are located at bottom 72.46 and top at 74.62. Caution to 74.62 as 74.35 must first break higher.

USD/TRY begins the week overbought and from the close at 8.5570, the weekly range and targets are located at bottom 8.5106 and top at 8.6132. USD/TRY remains safely above vital 8.1485.

USD/ZAR from the close at 13.7733 begins the week oversold yet fairly normal. Bottom is found at 13.6986 and top 13.8504. USD/ZAR should trade easily to 13.8786 to consider its price normal.

Brian Twomey

Commodities priced in USD such as Copper aligns perfectly to the Chilean Peso as USD/CLP. USD to CLP then matches USD to Copper.

The Chilean Peso will always outperform Copper as the Copper Price is located within USD/CLP on a daily and weekly basis and explains why and how to forecast Copper by USD/CLP.
Exchange rates were first and the oldest financial instrument by 2000 years. Modern day markets doesn’t change forecast ability then and now but it enhances concepts to double trades and trading other financial instruments as for example, exchange rates to exchange rates or exchange rates to any financial instrument offered in modern day markets.

USD/CLP Weekly Range 718.99 to 730.24 or 11.25 points
Then Down 730.24 to 721.95 or 8.29 points

Copper Weekly Range 4.4434 to 4.6918 or 0.2484 points. The factor 0.2484 is not a mystery number as it represents the reciprocal price to Copper.

Then Down 4.6918 to 4.5942 or 9 points

Down USD/CLP 8.20 points Vs Copper 9 points

Perfect.

Daily USD/CLP from the close at 724.50 forecast a range of 3.63 points or a full range at 7.26 points. The bottom is located at 720.87 and top at 728.13.

Daily Copper from the close at 4.6718 forecasts a range at 0.0234 points or 0.0468 for the full range. The bottom is located at 4.6484 and top at 4.6952.

Easier to forecast as reciprocals to work with smaller numbers and quick timed predictions.

Daily Copper reciprocal closed at 0.2140 and forecast as 0.0012 points or 0.0024 as the full range. The bottom is located at 0.2152 or 4.6468 and top at 0.2128 or 4.6992. A slight discrepancy but nothing to worries as the difference might be located either in the interest rate or a rounding question to the close price. Shorts and longs however are identified.

CLP/USD from the close at 0.0138 as a reciprocal forecasts 0.00003 as a range or 0.00006 as a full range. The bottom is located at 0.00135 or 740.74 and top at 709.21 as 0.00141. A CLP/USD top is a USD/CLP bottom and vice versa.

CLP/USD forecasts a wider range for Copper within the upcoming week while the daily range for Monday and possibly heading into Tuesday is covered for longs and shorts for both Copper and USD/CLP.

Not known in this trade scenario is Correlations however only requirement is match USD/CLP and CLP/USD tops and bottoms to Copper. Last week Copper and USD/CLP aligned and moved together while 2 weeks ago, Copper moved opposite to USD/CLP. A simple view at USD/CLP and CLP/USD tops and bottoms will inform how to proceed to Copper trades.

Brian Twomey

Currency markets begin the week under compressed ranges and the same old recurring problem for the past 4 weeks. EUR/USD closed last week 1.2180 and 1.2190 this week. GBP/USD closed this week at 1.4179 and 1.4139 last week. AUD/JPY 84.64 this week Vs 84.16 last week. EUR/AUD 1.5793 Vs l.5739 last week.

Best pairs in the past 3 weeks was wide rangers GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/AUD. However, despite wider movements, ranges remain problems as the pairs neglected range points to trade to extreme oversold and overbought.

Currency prices are ranging without significant breaches to vital high low averages. Without convincing and sustainable breaks, currency prices will remain trading in tiny ranges. JPY cross pairs remain deeply overbought and stagnant but USD/JPY trades above 108.17 and EUR/USD above 1.2108.

The months long protracted situation must resolve with EUR/USD or USD/JPY trading at opposite ends to vital levels and for JPY cross pairs to get moving lower.

USD/JPY begins the week overbought and a positive for overbought JPY cross pairs as USD/JPY remains solidly correlated to JPY crosses at +90%. EUR/USD begins fairly neutral against a big break above at 1.2240.

CAD/ZAR as EUR/USD’s perfect opposite and running -90% correlations is currently oversold from the close at 11.40 and must break 11.62 to move higher and target 11.75. CAD/ZAR as the traditional best indicator to EUR/USD trades at severely compressed ranges however solidly above 5 and 10 year averages at 10.96 and 10.13. This relationship must break wide open.

Divergence exists to EUR/NZD below 1.6860 from the close at 1.6805 and GBP/NZD above 1.9425 from the close at 1.9555. Divergence leaves NZD/USD at overbought from the close at 0.7242 and the 10 and 14 year averages just above at 0.7267 and 0.7342. The discrepancy in the NZD universe is oversold NZD/CAD yet no chance to move higher unless 0.8854 breaks above from the close at 0.8740.

AUD/USD closed directly on vital 0.7707 while AUD/CHF trades below 0.6975 and deeply oversold AUD/CAD from its close at 0.9313 must cross 0.9502 to consider higher targets. If AUD/USD remains below 0.7707 then AUD/JPY becomes not only the hold out above 83.38 but a good shot to break lower to bring uniformity to the AUD universe.

EUR/CAD from the close at 1.4710 must break 1.4930 and the 5 year average at 1.4965 to trade higher levels while 1.4542 and 1.4448 serve as solid supports.

GBP/CAD from its close at 1.7116 must cross above 1.7199 to trade higher. GBP/CAD is the only GBP pair to trade below while all GBP pairs trade above high/low points. The GBP universe is the only currency trading correctly and without divergence.

GBP/USD and USD/CAD remain the bright spots to a complete divergent currency market as both contain range ability to move far and wide. USD/CAD’s close at 1.2066 and GBP/USD at 1.4179 as perfect opposite currencies highlights the wide USD V Non USD divide by a 2113 spread. The spread is extraordinary and must close by GBP/USD much lower or USD/CAD higher. USD/CAD’s vital break is located at 1.2333 and GBP/USD at 1.3952.

Lower GBP/USD translates to higher for oversold EUR/GBP however EUR/GBP’s vital break at 0.8680 must cross higher for a significant GBP/USD move lower to challenge 1.3952.

USD/CHF will see a significant move at 0.9050 while DXY remains below and depressed at 90.24 and at the 10 year monthly average. From 90.24 then 91.57 and 92.89. The 5 year average at 95.53 provides massive resistance. DXY strategy is long drops until a challenge exists at 95.00s.

USD’s 10 year bond yield remains rangebound for the past 3 months between 1.3305 to 1.8448.

Brian Twomey

Japanese Call rates informs today USD/JPY range is located from 109.88 to 109.33. Japanese Call rates on a positive scale reports a range of 109.88 to 109.33. Japanese Call rates reports on a negative scale 109.88 to 109.33 however a larger range is also offered. USD interest rates reports 109.88 to 109.33 however a larger range is also offered.

To align correctly negative Japanese Call Rates to USD interest rates then the difference to today’s levels, ranges, tops and bottoms is 2 pips. The same 2 pip difference between USD and ECB interest rates. A 1 pip move for EUR/USD at 1.2196 equates to a decimal point at 0.000081 as exchange rates are factored since the start of time at 6 decimal places. Traders are shown 4 decimal places by currency brokers.

At EUR/USD 1.2195 then factors to 0.000820. From 1.2115 factors to 0.000825 and today’s highs at 1.2239 equates to 0.000817. Total range then equals 0.000817 to 0.000825. Easier for traders to draw a simple number line from 0.000825 to 0.000817 and long low numbers and short highs. Calculate ranges by 0.001 divide by exchange rate.

The big line today to trade 109.33 is located at 109.40. Today’s close is expected from 109.40 to 109.33 and places USD/JPY again at neutral to start next week.

The 2 pip differential from BOJ to Fed is most vital to report USD/JPY’s larger range from 111.11 to 107.52. To target 107.52 then 108.15 must break. Takes 2 JPY pips to report USD/JPY 359 pip range.

From 111.11 break down is found from 107.52, 108.15, 108.69, 109.82, 110.46 then 111.11. Don’t bank on 111.11 to trade next week if ever as it represents a range top and shorts are located in the vicinity of 111.11.

Interest rates viewed from any central bank in comparison to USD will find the same 2 pip differential as each central bank won’t ever drift far from USD interest rates and all central banks remain competitive to USD. Explains why yields don’t ever move and won’t move in the future.

Yield are secondary to interest rates and a far second as interest rates supplanted yields to leave yields as a lost and non viable indicator to anything remotely close to market price forecasts.

The 2 year yield in 13 months traded 0.2361 to 0.1064 while USD/JPY traded from 102.00’s to 110.97. Markets radically changed to its worst form from the new 2016 interest rate orientation and won’t see improvements to ranges.

The Fed talks about a Fed funds raise. Imagine what a 25 point move would do to central bank interest rates. If ever the Fed raised, expect a 10 or 15 point move at most.

Brian Twomey

Dear friend, The Election of 1870 is not only available for sale on Amazon in book and Kindle forms but book copies are also available through me directly. Contact is the same for trades [email protected]

Proud to announce my appearance June 10th at 8:00 am on WRHI’s local TV show called Palmetto Mornings. A highly popular show for local residents and coverage to Charlotte North Carolina.

Next hopefully comes the SC Archives.

Proud and honored for not only a great and terrific community but friends Mayor John Gettys, SC Speaker of the General Assembly Gary Simrill, Pastor Barry at my church, Spencer, Betty Jo Rae, The City Minute, the Harper family, the Norman Family, Paul G, Jack R and Ann, and many others from church and the community over the past 18 years.

Trading currencies continues so check back

With much gratitude, respect and God’s blessings

Brian Twomey

EURUSD current at 1.2203 and USD/CAD 1.2110 trades a distance of 93 pips. Both are the same exact pair yet trade in exact opposite directions as present Correlations run a solid -92%.
The point of departure is the possible crossover at 1.2156 as both currency pairs hold as EUR/USD support and USD/CAD resistance to each other.

EUR/USD averages 5 to 253 day point lower as follows

5 Day = 1.2213
10 Day = 1.2204
20 Day = 1.2161
50 Day = 1.2070

100 Day = 1.2015
200 Day = 1.2048
253 Day = 1.1986

The 200 day average is misaligned at 1.2048 yet slowly rightsizing to normality as EUR/USD drops further. Weird average the 200 day as it fails to relate to market compliance hence the 253 day to comport to average trading days for all the major nations. The 253 day matches exactly USD and NZD trading days. Matches close to the ECB at 256 days.

USD/CAD averages 5 to 253 day point higher as follows:

5 Day = 1.2067
10 Day = 1.2075
20 Day = 1.2106
50 Day = 1.2316

100 day = 1.2452
200 Day = 1.2640
253 Day = 1.2769

EUR/USD contains a dead distance of 93 pips while USD/CAD 702 pips yet USD/CAD averages are correct. EUR/USD averages are off kilter. On a larger scale USD/CAD 1,.2316 complies to EUR/USD at 1.2070 for the 50 day average.

USD/CAD strategy is long while EUR/USD is best for shorts.

Viewed from a larger perspective, USD/CAD at 1.2100’s Vs its exact opposite GBP/USD at 1.4100’s equates to 2000 pips and far to wide. GBP/USD confirms short while again USD/CAD long is validated.

Two perspective today. EUR/USD tops at 1.2241 and 1.2249 and USD/CAD bottoms at 1.2064 and 1.2079.

Or USD/CAD tops at 1.2188 and 1.2180 and EUR/USD bottoms at 1.2125 and 1.2138.
Longer term both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are miles overbought while USD/CAD is the opposite at deep oversold. Short and long strategies may hold for a time until overbought and oversold are complete.

Brian Twomey

As mentioned to weekly commentary, watch NZD/USD 0.7160 and the only way forward was long. Massive overbought NZD/USD meets the 10 year average at 0.7343 while the day trade top for today is located at 0.7333 and 0.7338.

While the big break for lower is located at the 15 year average at 0.7267, the day trade bottom today is found at 0.7273 and 0.7264. This leaves NZD/USD ranging from 0.7343 to 0.7267. Below 0.7267 targets 0.7168 and the big high/low line.

Assistance to NZD/USD short is EUR/NZD to break higher at 1.6878 and GBP/NZD to trade above 1.9436. Both trade below respective levels.

NZD/CHF trades fairly neutral at 0.6536 and overbought begins at 0.6552 while NZD/CAD trades below vital 0.8852.

While NZD/CHF trades neutral and NZD/CAD below its vital break leaves NZD/USD stuck for direction. NZD/CHF would also assist NZD/USD short on a break lower at 0.6492 to properly align the NZD universe.

Brian Twomey

Recall Gold Since February and the break at 1815.65. As advised, short 1815.65 to target 1728.91 for 80+ pips. Gold then >

April 26 Gold as informed ranges are 1846.05 to 1693.27 or 152 pips and a 21 point range compression. Most vital for higher / lower is 1769.67. May 3rd, 1769.67 broke higher for Gold to then range 76 points from 1769.67 to its vital high/ low point at 1846.05.

Recall again April 26: above 1846.05 targets 1870.01 and max at 1937.62. Gold’s high achieved 1910.27. Gold severely lacks range and movement ability and explains why its imperative to trade Gold perfectly at its vital points.

Gold at 1846 is the top average among 10 years of monthly averages which means the trade strategy is short.

Gold and the S&P’s trade above 5 year averages while DXY trades below at 95.53. Explains DXY Vs Gold negative Correlations from monthly averages to 10 years. Gold is misplaced and should trade alongside DXY with positive Correlations. DXY must break above 95.53 or Gold must trade below 1484.48.

From a day trade perspective the suggested trade strategy is short 1912.27 to target 1893.66.

While 1693 represents a vital bottom, USD/XAU as exchange rates predict exchange rates informs Gold’s range is located from exactly 2000 to 1785.71. Gold is currently at range highs.

USD/XAU not only aligns Gold’s price properly to USD but clearly Gold’s problem to movements is not XAU/USD but rather USD/XAU as USD/XAU lacks required movements due to USD for a substantial trade. However, Short is the only available strategy.

Brian Twomey

Best Buy, the electronics retail chain trades on the New York Stock Exchange as BBY. The 3 letters in the symbol is the indication to a New York Stock Exchange stock as opposed to 4 letters for Nasdag, Over the Counter and Pink Sheet stocks.

Not certain how Pink Sheet stocks are addressed in the modern day however those stocks fail to qualify for Nasdaq registration and are generally start up companies, highly speculative and low price stocks traded in the Over the Counter Market. The speculative word is Penny Stocks and cheaply priced, under $5.

Very few Pink sheet stocks survive. If memory serves, Big Blue IBM once began and traded in the Pink Sheets yet this is a rare occasion as many companies will fail before one success story materializes.

Prices in Nasdaq and Over the Counter markets are negotiated by Bid/ Ask spreads as opposed to the organized and orderly markets of the New York Stock Exchange. Bid/Ask spreads can change quickly and explains why stock traders best chance for success is to trade only New York Stock Exchange Stocks.

Best Buy opened this week at 114.93 and Thursday reports EPS or Earnings Per Share. The PE or Price/ Earnings ratio current reports 16.80 and 37.11 for the S&P’s and 25.56 one year ago. The S&P at 37 PE is exorbitantly high and ready for a deep fall.

The time to buy Best Buy was March 2020 when the PE ratio was 10.38 and Best Buy stock traded at 98.24. Today, 16 points represented profit.

The Rule for stock trading is long low PE ratio stocks and short high PE Ratios. Best Buy at 16.80 is either high or rangebound but not a trend. The question for Thursday is can price match to earnings at 16.80.

Last quarter, Best Buy achieved PE Ratio highs at 17.77 April 21 when Best Buy stock traded 121.56 then dropped to 117.47.

Ex dividend for Best Buy was March 17. Next dividend date should report in June. Ex Dividend dates are not only profitable but profits come quickly by trading Dividend plays.

Long Best Buy lows at 114.35 and highs at 115.51. Long the lows and short the highs. Due to the S&P PE ratio at 37 and Best Buy at 16.80, the suggested strategy for Best Buy is short.

Brian Twomey

A few interviews done with Brother Dale in February 2016 but never posted to this site. This only adds to the enormous body of FX and market knowledge contained on this site. Not to mention gazillions of trades.

Brian Twomey

AUD/JPY broke from its 85.00’s close in the past 2 weeks at 85.11 and 85.05 to close lower at 84.16. Encouraging to future shorts is the break lower at 84.39 and 84.37 at the 10 and 15 year averages. For the past 2 months, AUD/JPY traded from 83.01 to 85.79 or 278 pips and 139 pips per month. AUD/JPY vital break is located at 83.27 and 77.37 for NZD/JPY.

JPY cross pairs remain tied to Correlation paralysis as USD/JPY not only Correlates +90% to JPY cross pairs but + 90% to anchor currencies, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

CHF/JPY correlates +90% to USD/JPY and minus 53% to USD/CHF. Overall JPY cross pairs will trade neutral for the new week and the same scenario as last week.

For USD/JPY maintains a negative correlation to USD/CHF at – 12%. USD/CAD correlates +48% to USD/CHF. USD/CAD and USD/CHF trade under current prices to represent a double trade although the correlation at 70 to 80% constitutes a better situation to fully trust.

USD/CAD vital break is located 1.2372 and 50 day average at 1.2345 while USD/CHF vital break is located at 0.9070 and the 20 day average is found at 0.9049.

Moving forward, USD/CHF is first priority to trade long as USD/CHF is oversold to all averages dating to 1998 while USD/CAD becomes secondary. USD/JPY must break lower at 108.08 for any serious price moves to its current deeply mis aligned price. USD/JPY is not only perfectly neutral short, medium and longer term but not worth the trade effort.

Neutral USD/JPY while oversold USD/CAD and USD/CHF is derived from the BOJ Call Rates. High and lows Call Rates traded Friday at 0.986 to 0.925 then subtract for 0.06. Call Rates traded Thursday 1.001 to 0.93 then subtract for 0.07. Wednesday equates to 0.07. Fed Overnight rate 0.06 and this is not just a phantom number.

Cal Rates informed clearly, USD/JPY would close Friday at 108.90 and known at the close of Japanese markets. As exchange rates are glorified interest rates, neither the BOJ nor the Fed allows USD/JPY to trade correctly and at its proper levels. USD/JPY and anchor pairs under equal correlations highlights how closely nation interest rates trade against each other. Its up to the Fed to make a move as the world of trading is tied into current 0.06.

Look for 108.35 to hold for Monday and Tuesday and vital 108.27 to not break yet.

Informed last week, EUR/USD vital level at 1.2258. EUR/USD dropped from 1.2244 to lows at 1.2160 or 80 pips. While EUR/USD no longer qualifies as a problem pair to current price normalization after weeks in problem status, EUR/USD and all currency pairs suffers from severe range compression. EUR/USD big break for lower is located 1.2078 and the 50 day average is located at 1.2048.

EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD remain deeply oversold along with USD/CAD. No changes over many weeks.

EUR/NZD oversold last week forced overbought GBP/NZD higher. EUR/NZD this week maintains fairly neutral status to massive overbought GBP/NZD. Watch NZD/USD 0.7160.

Deeply overbought and problem pair GBP/AUD last week traded 300 pips higher. This is what problem status demonstrates.. Stay away . GBP/AUD this week remains deeply overbought while EUR/AUD sits at neutral.

AUD/EUR advises EUR/AUD trades 1.5820 to 1.5656 while AUD/GBP forecasts GBP/AUD trades 1.8385 to 1.8198.

EUR/USD vital levels for the week: 1.2028, 1.2049, 1.2078, 1.2117, 1.2186, 1.2255, 1.2324, 1.2461 and 1.2530.

USD/CLP and Copper

Chile is home to the largest Copper mines in the world and the greatest source of national revenue as it produces the world’s Copper, particularly China as Chile’s best customer over decades.

In 2020 according to Chile’s Statistics Office, Chile produced 5.7 million tones against an estimated reserve of 200 million tones. Copper output however dropped for the past 10 months. March saw a 1.3% decline to 491,720 tones. Producers blame Covid 19.

USD/CLP jumped 283 pips last Monday from 697.05 to 725.36 while Copper last week fell 31 points from 4.7831 to 4.4731. If economic normalization appears then Copper heads higher while USD/CLP travels lower.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD this week traded 115 pips, last week 129 pips then 187 and 134 pips 4 weeks ago. 18 currency pair Entries and targets for the week are known on Saturday. This means all price information to Central bank meetings, economic announcements and market crashes or surprises are fully known in advance.

The price is the leading indicator rather than the announcement. The announcement is irrelevant and late to the price path due to mathematical factors to entries and targets. Fully 99% of all market information and announcements are known.

No such concept as a new trade week except for a new trade. A new week is a price continuation from the old week. EUR/USD would’ve traded 115 and 129 pips regardless of announcements or whatever market information was a focus. Every week exists a new focus but every week the attention is irrelevant to prices.

EUR/USD closed this week at 1.2180 and last week at 1. 2144. The EUR/USD closed April 24 at 1.2096 and 100 pips higher 1 month later. The Fed’s 50 pip move was known and irrelevant to the price.

Trading is defined as entry, target and levels offered to follow trades to targets. Nothing else maters nor anything to change entry and target. Not required is stops and screen watching all day, everyday. Not required are trade rooms and whatever other trade methods exists today.

What economic commentary says to a new trade week again is completely irrelevant nor will it assist to profit. Its pure speculation without value as nobody actually runs economic data to offer accurate analysis.

Day trades, weekly and long term are the exact same math concepts to entries and targets. Targets must achieve destinations by mathematical standards. The price doesn’t have a choice except to achieve targets.

This was seen and proven in 2012 and no difference exists today. The only difference today is the abundance of websites, social media and news services reporting upon daily market developments as if it means something. It doesn’t except to advertising dollars or sales of services. It especially is meaningless to a ranging market price.

Unless a market price breaks a significant level to change direction or offer many profit pips then the price is irrelevant as seen by the EUR/USD in the last 4 trade weeks.

The problem with significant level is market commentary daily and weekly to significant levels.

Chances are good reported levels are wrong . They seek attention and not your profits.

EUR/USD for example in the last 9 months broke significant levels at 1.1400’s, 1.1900’s, 1.2028 and 1.2060. New levels today are located at 1.1427, 1.2028, 1.2049, 1.2078 and 1.2599.

Between 1.2078 and 1.2599 is irrelevant. EURUSD could possibly trade within 1.2078 to 1.2599 for another 6 months. Until then, market commentary and significant levels are meaningless.

Brian Twomey

AUD/EUR traded its normal 17 pips in Asia trade from 0.6350 to 0.6333. At 0.6333, EUR/AUD traded highs at 1.5790 and lows at 1.5748 from AUD/EUR 0.6350.

AUD/EUR informs today, EUR/AUD will trade from 1.5698 to 1.5857 or 159 total pips. Actual EUR/AUD will trade 79 pips on the breakdown.

This means longs and short are located at 1.5777. This matches longs and shorts to AUD/USD at 0.7753. For AUD/USD longs are located at 0.7713 and 0.7723 to target 0.7740. Then Long above 0.7753 to target 0.7788 and 0.7793. Then short 0.7788 and 0.7793 to target 0.7758.

The overall potential is 17 pips, 38 pips, and 30 pips for 3 trades before 10:00 am.

AUD/USD longs at 0.7713 and 0.7723 coincides to EUR/AUD longs above 1.5777 to target 1.5836 and 1.5826. Then reverse short to target 1.5786. Shorts at 1.5777 targets 1.5716 and 1.5698. Then long 1.5698 and 1.5716 to target 1.5758.

The overall potential is 49 pips, 40 pips, 61 pips and 42 pips.

EUR/AUD overbought begins over 1.5806 and AUD/USD oversold at 0.7738.

AUD/USD overall vital points to range is located at 0.7706 to 0.7838. While EUR/AUD targets much lower on breaks at 1.5677 and 1.5654.

GBP/AUD was the overall winner this week to trade 226 pips from 1.8098 to 1.8326.

Deeply overbought EUR/USD vital points as follows: 1.2077, 1.2132, 1.2187, 1.2255, 1.2324, 1.2461, 1.2550 and 1.2599.

Brian Twomey

The Election of `1870 Kindle Released today

Thank you to all and with much respect, gratitude and appreciation

Your friend,

Brian Twomey

The Kindle Version to The Election of 1870 will be released today.

Thank you, Brian Twomey

https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipPMGPsBjqJfnOZ6TlQK5wmWiz-6hNiXFvbTKIG_qrGkC1dQCjQg042dtF1xYkfffg?key=Y05zX0Y4VDV5alBxWWRRSWJadVRkQm1jNlhKdHJ3

EUR/AUD as written yesterday to highs at 1.5799 achieved 1.5788 at the same time AUD/USD would trade 0.7746 then 0.7735. AUD/USD traded below 0.7790 to 0.7731 then bounced while EUR/AUD dropped.

Longs for USD/JPY at 108.43 and 108.46 to target 109.27 bounced from 108.56 to complete target at 109.27 for 71 pips. The target was known yesterday morning while the Fed offered assistance . Fed or no Fed, 109.27 had to trade by no other choice.

Every last detail to every trade is known in advance before any clicks and the result after 17 years of trading is entries and targets achieve success. Its just another day at the office as entries and targets became routine.

In the trifecta trade to EUR/AUD, AUD/EUR and AUD/USD, divergence exists as in many currency pairs due to non uniformity to current prices. AUD/USD trades above its vital point at 0.7706 while AUD/EUR trades below 0.6386 or EUR/AUD 1.5659. EUR/AUD trades above 1.5662.

AUD/USD above 0.7706 and AUD/EUR below EUR/AUD 1.5659 creates problems for AUD/USD as AUD/USD is forced to trade rangebound until the EUR/AUD and AUD/EUR resolution at 1.5659 and 1.5662 is resolved.

AUD/USD’s power and strength for significant longs and shorts is found when it is equally matched to AUD/EUR as its most vital cross pair.

AUD/USD will trade higher if AUD/EUR trades above 1.5659 and EUR/AUD trades below 1.5662. If EUR/AUD remains above 1.5662 then AUD/USD will trade lower to not only break 0.7706 but AUD/USD will again marry its most important counterpart in AUD/EUR. AUD/USD shorts will gain power to trade significantly lower and divergence will resolve.

AUD/EUR today informs EUR/AUD will trade 1.5807 to 1.5644 and a challenge to 1.5662.

EUR/AUD neutrality today is located at 1.5795 and 4 pips lower from yesterday’s 1.5799. EUR/AUD shorts at 1.5801 and 1.5795 targets 1.5729 then 1.5695 while AUD/USD targets highs at 0.7792 then short to 0.7739 then 0.7728.

Brian Twomey

As written many times and to many exchange rate prices, zero point currencies are used to forecast higher exchange rate currencies. The best currencies are the lowest price currencies to 60 + exchange rates, NZD/USD and NZD/CHF. The result is targets, vital supports and /or resistance and entries.

EUR/USD is not only a problem currency but EUR/USD levels aren’t correct nor does EUR/USD correlate to its cross pairs. The best we get from NZD/USD and NZD/CHF are 1.1700 and 1.1800’s which is actually the current EUR/USD targets. If EUR/USD was correct then an immediate trade would factor. Note yesterday’s Regression as EUR/USD factors to 1.1700 and 1.1800’s.

Exchange rates predict exchange rates perfectly contains a solid mathematical foundation but much simpler and quicker to factor.

Exchange rate prices may appear far and wide to each other but this is the trap to prices and trading as exchange rate prices are closer to each other than one would imagine. Current prices are a bit off but this situation will improve.

A Few Examples

GBP/AUD minus NZD/USD = GBP/CHF
AUD/JPY Minus NZD/JPY = 81.79 No immediate assistance.

USD/JPY minus NZD/USD = USD/CHF
USD/CHF Minus AUD/USD = AUD/JPY

EUR/CAD Minus NZD/USD = USD/JPY
EUR/NZD Minus NZD/USD = USD/CAD

EUR/NZD Minus NZD/CHF = EUR/USD and USD/CAD
USD/CAD Minus NZD/CHF = USD/CHF

GBP/CAD Minus NZD/USD = GBP/CHF
GBP/CAD Minus NZD/CHF = EUR/USD 1.1809

GBP/NZD Minus NZD/USD = EUR/JPY 134.43
GBP/NZD Minus NZD/CHF = GBP/CHF

Brian Twomey

The Titles are forced upon me by Fxstreet. Now they want titles and preferred story lines to commentary. Its more fluff Bull stuff that wastes our time and earns no money. Same old rookie garbage from these websites and contributors, all losers and bankrupt accounts.

The divide between EUR/USD as Non USD Vs USD to USD/CAD and USD/CHF grows to a greater overbought Vs oversold condition. The overall problem is exchange rate levels to cross pairs. NZD/USD remained neutral this week to trade 89 pips while Overbought GBP/NZD and oversold EUR/NZD both rose 265 and 235 pips.

AUD/USD remained neutral to trade 80 pips while overbought GBP/AUD traded 198 pips higher and EUR/AUD traded higher by 173 pips.

USD/CAD was the winner in the USD side to cross below EUR/USD at 1.2134 to trade 118 pips lower. As written, USD/JPY began the week slightly overbought and traded 66 pips. USD/JPY at 66 pips lacked a pattern or channel to break. USD/CHF traded 74 pips while GBP/CHF barely rose 100 pips.

AUD/EUR informs EUR/AUD trades a range from 1.5799 to 1.5637. The break higher at 1.5654 traded to highs at 1.5772 and day trade target achieved at 1.5723 from 1.5654.

EUR/AUD at 1.5799 places EUR/AUD at neutral. EUR/AUD at 1.5799 factors to AUD/USD below 0.7790 to target 0.7746 then 0.7735 and oversold. Most vital to AUD/USD is EUR/AUD as GBP/AUD remains in deep problem status.

For USD pairs USD/CAD and USD/CHF the only trade choice remains long while USD/JPY requires longs from 108.43 and 108.46 to target 109.27. Not much to USD/JPY as USD/CAD and USD/CHF are better trades.

Deeply overbought EUR/USD and GBP/USD are short candidates to target 1.2126 and GBP/USD 1.4091.

Brian Twomey

Only a few math formulas work to perfection in market trading and specifically for FX trading. Simple Regression is one fantastic formula and able to hit targets 500 and 1000 pips perfectly. I ran the 5 and 253 day averages for EUR/USD and GBP/USD then reversed to GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The first entry is X and second is Y. The Y predicts and why its vital to reverse to see both views.

The formula X +Y then X the average. Add and subtract answer to the result for ranges.

slope as EUR/USD Vs GBP/USD – 2.778, Y Intercept = -1.9601. SEE = 0.0139.

SEE = Standard Error of the Estimate. its a deviation and 1 among the 5 big deviation numbers.

2.778 + -1.9601 = 0.8179. So 0.8179 X GBP/USD 1.3875 = 1.1348. SEE + 0.0139 = 1.1487, SEE Minus 1.1348 = 1.1209.

EUR/USD established at 1.1348 and 1.1487.

Now reverse. GBP/USD Vs EUR/USD

GBP/USD Vs EUR/USD. Slope 0.243, Y = 0.8683. SEE – 0.0041

Slope + Y = 1.1113. Then 1.1113 X 1.2049 = 1.3390. Then 1.3390 + 0.0041 = 1.3431. 1.3390 minus 0.0041 = 1.3349

Use 1.1113 and replace other averages beside 1.2049 for GBP/USD to see longer range forecasts

The perfect way to do this formula for most effectiveness is to use monthly averages to 8 or 10 years. Then trades are factored or 500 and 1000 pips and targets hit perfectly. About 200 numbers involved and a it of work but well worth the effort as once done then done for many months. Just enter then wait for target and voila, many, many pips. Not required is watch a price or chart as target is set already. Ya go live life happily.

Once the number X + Y is known then substitute averages

Longer term using monthly averages looks like this. From 2016

EUR/USD V DXY from EUR/USD 1.1225, Means and Ranges.

1 Year Mean 96.22, Range above 97.71, Below 94.72
2 Year mean 96.10, Range above 97.26, Below 94.93
3 Year Mean 95.98, Range above 97.23, Below 94.72
5 Year Mean 95.12, Range above 97.37, Below 92.86.
7 Year Mean 93.86, Range Above 96.35, Below 91.36
10 Year Mean 93.56, Range Above 96.03, Below 91.08.

EUR/USD V DXY from EUR/USD 1.1044, Means and Ranges.

1 Year Mean 97.13, Range Above 98.62, Below 95.63
2 Year mean 97.23, Range Above 98.39, Below 96.06
3 Year Mean 97.16, Range Above 98.41, Below 95.90
5 Year Mean 96.36, Range Above 98.61, Below 94.10
7 Year Mean 95.59, Range Above 97.99, Below 93.00
10 Year Mean 94.55, Range Above 97.02, Below 92.07

DXY V EUR/USD, From DXY 95.99, Means and Ranges

1 Year Mean 1.1172, Range Above 1.1336, Below 1.1008
2 Year Mean 1.0841, Range Above 1.1024, Below 1.0658
3 Year Mean 1.1122, Range Above 1.1312, Below 1.0932
5 Year Mean 1.1619, Range Above 1.1934, Below 1.1304
7 Year Mean 1.1378, Range Above 1.1755, Below 1.1001
10 Year Mean 1.0790, Range Above 1.1209, Below 1.0371

DXY V EUR/USD from DXY 93.99, Means and Ranges

1 Year mean 1.1292, Range Above 1.1456, Below 1.1128
2 Year mean 1.1161, Range Above 1.1344, Below 1.0978
3 Year Mean 1.1422, Range Above 1.1612, Below 1.1232
5 Year Mean 1.1879, Range Above 1.2194, Below 1.1564
7 Year Mean 1.1658, Range Above 1.2035, Below 1.1281.
10 Year Mean 1.1110, Range Above 1.1529, Below 1.0691.

EUR/USD Rough spots overall, sell points 1.1300’s – 1.1600’s, Below look to 1.0900’s as Long points.

Brian Twomey