Month: June 2021

For the second instance over the past 4 weeks, all JPY cross pairs are at, near or broke vital support points. CHF/JPY yesterday broke 119.98 and traded to 119.82 or 16 pips. Today, CHF/JPY must break 119.86 then lower CHF/JPY trades.

EUR/JPY must break below 131.20, AUD/JPY broke below 83.38, NZD/JPY broke 77.58 while CAD/JPY trades just above 88.42. GBP/JPY the usual outlier to JPY cross pairs due to near permanent correlations to GBP/USD must break 151.97.

USD/JPY today achieves its top at 110.98 and 111.05 on a break of 110.77. Below, USD/JPY must break 110.22 and 110.09 to target 109.93 and just ahead of USD/JPY vital break at 109.23.

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD at current prices sits at massive oversold. EUR/USD today contains a topside target at 1.1959, AUD/USD 0.7558 and NZD/USD 0.7035. Targets for weekly trades are far higher than today’s day trades.

GBP/USD today must break below 1.3812 and 1.3797 to target 1.3778 while GBP/JPY lower targets 152.23 on breaks at 152.73 and 152.44.

How to trade and track daily price movements between and among currency pairs is by exchange rates forecast exchamge rates.

NON USD

USD/JPY X GBP/USD = GBP/JPY
USD/JPY X AUD/USD = AUD/JPY

USD/JPY X NZD/USD – NZD/JPY
USD/JPY X EUR/USD = EUR/JPY.

USD

USD/JPY divide USD/CHF = CHF/JPY
USD/JPY Divide USD/CAD = CAD/JPY.

Trade by Support and Resistance Points

USD/JPY 5 vital numbers today: 109.93, 110.09, 110.22, 110.77 and 111.05
EUR/USD 5 vital numbers today: 1.1839, 1.1855, 1.1868, 1.1929 and 1.1959.

EUR/JPY 5 vital numbers today: 130.82, 131.01, 131`.31, 131.81 and 132.14.

Trade by Daily Targets and/or Support and Resistance Points

USD/JPY 109.93 X EUR/USD top 1.1959 = EUR/JPY 131.46
USD/JPY 110.09 X EUR/USD 1.1929 = EUR/JPY 131.32

USD/JPY 110.22 X EUR/USD 1.1868 = EUR/JPY 130.80
USD/JPY 110.77 X EUR/USD 1.1855 = EUR/JPY 131.31

USD/JPY 111.05 X EUR/USD 1.1839 = EUR/JPY 131.47.

Daily Ranges

EUR/JPY daily range today since 2:30 am EST to start day trades roamed from 131.58 to 131.33
EUR/USD traded 1.1904 to 1.1885 or 19 pips.

USD/JPY traded 110.58 to 110.41.

Day trades run to 10:00 am EST and 3 chances to profit by Economic News from Europe, UK and USD at 8:30 then day trades are done and over for the day.

At any time during the next 5 1/2 hours of day trades, hit the calculator to find next trade point to JPY cross pairs.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD contained nearly a 2000 pip spread and non normal. Inside the spread is located EUR/JPY by subtraction of GBP/USD minus USD/CAD. Against a wide spread, EUR/JPY traded at its top. The spread compressed to current 1500 pips and EUR/JPY dropped from 133.00 highs to current 131.00’s.

GBP/USD was responsible for the higher EUR/JPY due to correlations at +91% while USD/CAD correlated at – 91%. GBP/USD and EUR/JPY traded higher while USD/CAD traded lower in a 3 way triangulation trade as 3 trades existed.

The perfect scenario at 91’s is the result of correlations between GBP/USD and USD/CAD at -97%. GBP/USD and USD/CAD’s relationship defines currency markets due not only to USD Vs Non USD but many currency pairs factor against this relationship.

For example, GBP/USD minus USD/CHF equates to CHF/JPY and USD/CAD minus USD/CHF equals EUR/CHF and AUD/NZD. By trading exchange rates by exchange rates by use of a calculator, found is a support or resistance point or entry and target.

EUR/JPY is clearly the leader to JPY cross pairs as known from most widely traded currency in 3 year Triennial Surveys dating to 2001. Why is due from many ways to factor exchange rates to exchange rates to lead to EUR/JPY. GBP/JPY minus USD/JPY will also lead to EUR/JPY. GBP/CHF minus USD/CAD reveals a massive EUR/JPY bottom at 125.00’s.

The question to the 3 way Triangulation trades was GBP/USD at its top, USD/CAD at bottoms or EUR/JPY at its top. The answer reveals 3 trades and each trade for 200 pips each.

Many ways by exchange rates factor to exchange rates will lead to GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD due to GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD as middle currency pairs to the EUR and GBP universe. AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD reveal tops and bottoms to NZD and AUD currencies.

CHF/JPY minus USD/JPY reveals CHF/JPY’s target at 115.00’s yet this 115.00 target is validated by the MA system.

More examples to Exchange Rates by Exchange Rates

GBP/NZD minus EUR/NZD = GBP/AUD
EUR/USD minus NZD/CHF = USD/CHF
USD/JPY + USD/CHF = EUR/CAD
GBP/CAD minus EUR/NZD = GBP/CAD

GBP/NZD minus GBP/CAD = GBP/AUD
EUR/AUD minus EUR/CAD = GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY minus USD/JPY = EUR/JPY

GBP/CAD minus USD/CAD = EUR/CAD
AUD/NZD minus AUD/USD = AUD/CAD
AUD/CAD minus AUD/USD = NZD/CAD

EUR/NZD minus EUR/CAD = EUR/AUD
USD/CAD minus CAD/JPY = EUR/CHF.

Exchange rates trade far more closer to each other than what is reveled by the eyeball. EUR/CHF for example trades 1.0900 Vs AUD/NZD 1.0756 and a cross over point at 1.0858.

Brian Twomey

AUD/NZD serves two purposes in currency markets. First as the top exchange rate in the AUD universe of currency pairs and second as the halfway point between GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Today’s AUD/NZD at 1.0732 trades 20 pips below vital 1.0752.

AUD/CAD serves two purposes in currency markets. First as the second highest exchange rate in the AUD universe and second as the halfway point from EUR/USD to AUD/USD.

GBP/USD subtract NZD/USD reveals a bottom for AUD/NZD at 1.0488 for a 244 pip range from 1.0732 to 1.0488. However 1.0732 to 1.0488 contains a mid point at 1.0610 and falls 68 pips below the 5 year average at 1.0678. Actual range becomes 1.0678 to 1.0732.

EUR/USD subtract AUD/USD at 0.9761 and EUR/USD subtract NZD/USD reveals AUD/CAD 0.9761 and 0.9502 is located at the AUD/CAD 5 year average at 0.9579 and 10 year at 0.9783.

AUD/CAD’s longer range price path for higher must break 0.9441, 0.9579, 0.9620 and 0.9783 from current 0.9328. EUR/USD correlations to AUD/CAD run +39% and +87% to AUD/USD. EUR/USD correlations to NZD/USD run +93%.

GBP/USD Vs AUD/NZD correlations run +67% and +37% to AUD/USD. GBP/USD to NZD/USD correlations run +21%. Overall, not good to exchange rate relationships.

Brian Twomey

Only 5 numbers apply to a day and 24 hour trade as is the same case for EM as well as EUR/USD and G28 currencies. EM trades can possibly run for the week as applies to USD/TRY.

USD/BRL from the close at 4.9338, USD/BRL is massive oversold.
5 numbers: 4.8590, 4.8828, 4.9925 Vs 4.9627 and 5.0175
Short 4.9627

USD/CNY from the close at 6.4563 and fairly neutral.
5 numbers: 6.3613, 6.3938, 6.4935, 6.5359 and 6.5659
Short 6.4935

USD/DKK from the close at 6.2305 and massive overbought.
5 numbers: 6.1349, 6.1652, 6.2656, 6.3011, 6.3331
Top and short 6.2656

USD/HRK from the close at 6.2819 and neutral
5 numbers: 6.1881, 6.2189, 6.3211, 6.3572, 6.3887
Top and short 6.3211

USD/HUF from the close at 294.31 and neutral
5 numbers: 289.85, 294.98, 297.61, 299.40, 303.03
Top and short 299.40

USD/MYR from the close at 4.1560 and massive overbought
5 numbers: 4.0916, 4.1118, 4.1788, 4.2036, 4.2247

Top and short 4.1788

USD/RON from the close at 4.1296 and massive overbought
5 numbers: 4.0650, 4.0866, 4.1528, 4.1771, 4.1981
Top and short 4.1528

USD/PLN from the close at 3.7836 and neutral
5 numbers: 3.7257, 3.7439, 3.8051, 3.8284, 3.8461
Top and short 3.8051

USD/TRY from the close at 8.7557 and overbought
5 numbers: 8.6206, 8.6655, 8.8028, 8.8573, 8.8967
Top and short 8.8028

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD fell 295 pips 2 weeks ago and in 3 days while EUR/USD traded a 122 pips range last week. Higher for EUR/USD must break 1.2025, 1.2028 and 1.2038 to move higher. EUR/USD averages are moving lower and against a higher EUR/USD price however EUR/USD remains deeply oversold as EUR/USD barely corrected from the 295 pip fall.

GBP/AUD dropped 266 pips last week and 163 pips for EUR/AUD. GBP/AUD as mentioned last week would lead the way to EUR/AUD and AUD/USD. GBP/AUD vital break at 1.8216 and oversold from the 1.8269 close will lead the way again this week to EUR/AUD. We’re looking for longs and short to AUD/USD.

Overall ranges remain severely compressed into week 5 for a vast majority of the 18 currency pairs traded weekly. For the most part this represents trade opportunities as entries and targets are more responsive to shorter ranges. it means possibly doubling up on lots traded to increase weekly profits.

Ranges for GBP/USD and USD/CAD are compressed from normal however overall ranges are good and better than most currency pairs. GBP/CAD begins the week deeply oversold and may mean GBP/USD and USD/CAD trade neutral until GBP/CAD works off oversold and settles into a normal price again.

Higher for GBP/USD must break 1.3922 but also note GBP/CHF trading above 1.2667. If GBP/CHF breaks below 1.2667 then GBP/USD will gain speed to trade much lower.

JPY cross pairs remain fairly neutral for the week and the same story for the past 3 weeks. Short only strategy remains for the next 500 and 600 pips until CHF/JPY achieves target at 114.00 and 115.00’s. Overall averages are moving lower and against higher for JPY cross pairs.

USD/JPY again begins week 2 overbought and matches overbought USD/CHF as USD/JPY’s counterpart. USD/CHF is the better trade short. USD/CAD as the opposite pair from USD/JPY and USD/CHF begins the week oversold and we are long as usual every week over the past 4 weeks.
DXY from the close at 91.81 trades between 91.57 and 92.89. Below 91.57 then range becomes 91.57 to 90.24.

DXY defined is an invention created in 1998 upon EUR/USD introduction. Prior to 1998, the premiere currency of Europe was the German Deutsche Mark as DEM/USD and it was traded against USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. But each European nation prior to 1998 had their own currency.

Not only is NZD/USD oversold but also oversold is EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. This relationship can’t and won’t work well together. GBP/NZD will dictate direction upon the resolution to 1.9588 from the 1.9620 close.

AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF never big movers but good trades this week against an overbought USD/CHF while CAD/CHF will follow CAD/JPY short this week.

Oversold EUR/CAD from the 1.4667 close to travel higher must break 1.4852 and 1.4968 and lower must break below 1.4545 and 1.4453. Current range is located at 1.4545 to 1.4852.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey

Does a Fixed currency market or market in related Financial instruments apply to a price Fix, prices Fixed to pips and points or are both factored into the equation.

For 28 currency pairs based on this arcane topic stressed called interest rates then the total market pips available to trade on any given trade day totals 3274 pips. This assumes prices trade to its full potential of pips.

The average price traded for all 28 currency pairs is 116 pips and a Median of 112. Prices can only drift from 116 pips by 36 pips and a range from 80 pips to 153 pips. The boundaries of prices are also Fixed.

If currency prices for all 28 currency pairs trade 1/2 the range which is fairly normal for today’s currency market then 1637 pips trade or 1/2 from 3274. if 1/4 of all currency prices trade then 409 pips trade.

The average price move for all 28 currency pairs based on 1637 pips is 58 pips, a median of 56 pips and a drift of 18 pips. The price range then trades from 40 pips to 76 pips or 1/2 the range from 153 and 80.

The new 2016 interest rate change slashed the total market pips by 30% to employ EUR/USD as the example. This means total pips from 3274 was once 4256 pips and 2128 pips from 1637. Exact pips slashed from 2128 to 1637 equates to 491 pips and 982 pips from 4256 to 3274 for all 28 currency pairs

The addition of 30% to prices is called volatility as prices ranged far and wide on any given trade day.

Subtract 4 current outlier currency pairs as wide rangers as follows: GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD then total pips traded for the full ranges goes from 3274 to 2550. An average of 106 pips, a median of 103 and a range from 78 to 134 pips and a drop from 80 and 153 ranges by 19 and 2 pips.

if 1/2 the range trades as 40 to 76 pips then total ranges ftom 78 and 134 factors to a drop of 38 and 58 pips.

The Statistics formulas used by central banks for day trades hasn’t changed and remains exact pre 2016 and today based on the new interest rate changes. What changed was the scale as boundaries were shortened, available pips to trade decreased and length of time to trade targets increased.

Not exact but my assessment to trade time increased by 3 hours from previous 1 1/2 and 1 1/2 to include previous 6:00 am and 8:30 am. EST. Trade time today is 7 1/2 hours. Then day trades are over and done.

To lacerate 30% to all currency prices to decreased ranges and available pips to trade then means all market prices were cut as the currency price is the leader, dictator and forecast to all market prices to include stock indices and commodities.

And this explicitly defines the day trade.

Brian Twomey

When WTI crashed in April 2001 from 29.00’s to negative prices, WTI then embarked on a massive rally to trade above 5, 10 and 15 year averages. Along the way higher, WTI built in supports from 49.05 to 71.59 at the 14 year average. Supports higher materialized every 2 and 3 points to monthly averages.

The road lower will be much harder to travel as first breaks are located at 71.59, 71.13 at the 14 and 15 year averages then 66.70 at the 10 year average followed by the 5 year at 53.42.

From 71.13 then next comes 70.79, 69.53, 68.88, 67.53, 66.70, 65.55, 63.48, 63.46, 59.83, 54.58, 53.94, 53.42 at the 5 year average then to continue 52.71, 52.39, 51.68 and 49.05.

Overbought from current 73.00’s are located in the averages from 50.00’s and the 5 year average at 53.42.

Higher targets and short points can easily travel to 79.99, 85.15, 89.43, 91.80, 92.02, 93.16 and 94.16.

For the next 24 hours, range includes 75.18, 74.62, 74.07 then 72.99 and 72.46. Due to overbought, the strategy moving forward remains short to target breaks at lower averages, particularly the 10 year at 66.70.

GBP/NZD as written target achieved at 1.9661. GBP/NZD traded to lows at 1.9664 from this week’s 1.9890 for +232 pips. Target last week was also 1.9661 and not achieved so this trade ran a bit overtime.

Brian Twomey

EUR/NZD and GBP/CAD remains trading inside its far to close relationship. GBP/CAD’s major break above at week’s beginning was 1.7195 and today, 1.7203. The tight relationship assured EUR/NZD’s target achieved at 1.6941 from 1.7103 highs and +62 pips.

EUR/NZD’s 2ng leg to the weekly trade just broke 1.6927 which means not only more profits ahead but assures GBP/NZD target at 1.9661 from 1.9890 for this week. GBP/NZD contains a big line at 1.9673. GBP/NZD lows achieved 1.9763 or +127 pips.

To monitor and trade GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD is the 2600 pip spread. The current spread from 1.6901 and 1.9792 runs 2891 pips and far to wide at 291 pips. The spread must compress by either EUR/NZD higher or GBP/NZD lower.

Next relationship then is EUR/NZD to NZD/USD. If EUR/NZD remains below 1.6927 then NZD/USD challenges 0.7109. NZD/USD remains oversold from last week’s drop.
EUR/AUD is on the verge of a break lower at 1.5737. AUD/USD then approaches 0.7646. Watch this relationship.

EUR/GBP remains oversold and in long drop mode while GBP/USD requires a break at 1.3930 to travel lower. EUR/GBP is the main pair to hold GBP/USD in constant neutrality.

Explains why USD/CAD is the better pair to trade but also because the BOC set USD/CAD up as a market traded currency due to the triggers that force USD/CAD to move. GBP/USD on the other hand is far from a market traded currency due to the BOE triggers that force it to move.

USD/CAD and GBP/USD spread widened from 1300 ish pips at week’s beginning to current 1600’s. USD/CAD higher or GBP/USD lower.

Best to watch EUR/USD vs USD/CAD as the spread is more manageable at 353 pips. USD/CAD trades below 1.2354 while EUR/USD trades below 1.2031. Note as stated 1.3031. The big line at week’s beginning traded from 1.2073 to current 1.2031 and crossed below 1.2038 and 1.2031.

The better trade is long USD/CAD but also because USD/CAD moves further and wider.

The 1970’s word Stagflation is defined as Inflation rates above GDP or Inflation prices trade higher than output. Inflation at 4.99 and GDP at 6.4 approaches Stagflation but lacks the current moniker.

And so it goes, market price relationships exist throughout every traded market instrument on the planet. Relationships may mean off kilter relationships to prices. Relationships may mean a support or resistance relationship in sync or slightly off base.

Previously trades included GOLD and an easy 70ish pips. Last S&P traded as 200 ish pips. Its been a minute since WTI was viewed but I suspected WTI traded with GOLD and the S&P’s above 5 year averages while DXY trades below.

GOLD and DXY are the outlier instruments and explains why to dead movement to both DXY and Gold. Overall, WTI in the 70’s trades halfway between all time highs at 140.00’s and historic lows at 11.59 in July 1986.

Future plans include going total private. Need or want trades then hurry up. Trading these days is not about competence as it was in days of old as trade competence left the modern day station many miles ago. In the 4th Quadrant of trading and time, its all predictable but we can’t take today with any seriousness..

Brian Twomey

Current Inflation at 4.99 in yearly average terms exceeds 2005 at 3.4% then 5.4% in 1`990 and 13.5% in 1980. In 1947, Inflation achieved 14.4% then 15.6% in 1920 and 18.0% in 1918.
In monthly average terms, 4.99 was surpassed in July and August before the market crash in 2008 at 5.6% and 5.4% then 5.0% in May 1991 and 6.3% in each month of October and November 1990.

The highest monthly average ever recorded was 14.4% in March 1980 then 19.7% in March 1947 and 23.7% in 1920 to cover 1914 to 2021.

Inflation rates took a radical jump and steady rise from 1.7%, 2.6%, 4.2% then 4.99% and quite unusual. In 2008, radical rises and falls to Inflation was not seen. From 1914 to current 2021, Inflation rates held fairly steady on a monthly average basis

The commonality to high Inflation rates was the result of war. terrorist attacks and calamity to affect world markets. Today at 4.99, no such tragedy exists. Inflation at 4.99% informs however deep caution is warranted as problems exist in the financial system. In 2008, high Inflation was known as a result or leading to the market crash.

Lower Inflation from yearly averages dating from 2021 to 1973, must break 3.92 and a full percentage point lower, quite a jump without calamity affecting world markets. Then next 2.59 to range from 3.92 to 2.59 and still quite high as consumer goods to food and energy remain elevated.

From 2.59 then 2.14 and 1.54. Inflation from 2.59 is severely overbought and at richter scale levels from 2.14 and 1.54. An average Inflation move in monthly average terms factors to 1.46 and a median of 1.02. Inflation may be “transitory’ but based on monthly average moves, Inflation at the next reporting period may take more time to achieve 2.59 and 2.14. This may mean 6 months or more for 2% to achieve and possibly lower.

From 4.99 perspective, the yearly average in 2008 was 3.4% and 3.4% in year 2000. In 2020, Inflation yearly average was 1.2 and 1.8 in 2019.

Brian Twomey

Only 5 vital numbers for today’s CHF/JPY: 119.42, 119.58, 119.90, 120.33 and 120.64. The overall driving average is located at 115.70 and in April 114.52. The extra added pips to the overall shortest term average raises the target to 115.17. This means the 115.70 line will drop below 115.17 as CHF/JPY trades lower. Or either way, a 6 and 800 pip trade prevails.

For the week overbought and short if traded exists at 121.84 and 121.93 to target 120.62 then 120.44. The longer range target over the next week or so exists at 119.95, 119.32 and 118.58.
As written in weekly commentary, USD/JPY short at 110.63 and 110.70 then reverse short to 109.84 then 109.50. The lower USD/JPY will assist in the drop to CHF/JPY as higher levels to CHF/JPY are not expected.

Levels and trades however were provided for CHF/JPY in case this market decides to travel erratic. USD/JPY weekly highs so far achieved 110.53 and 10 pips shy of 110.63 short point.

Dead mover USD/JPY is the main pair holding progress to further downside to JPY cross pairs. Recall last week, USD/JPY traded 103 pips while most currencies traveled 2 and 300 pips.

Overall patience to CHF/JPY targets as currency markets trade in the slowest price speeds and most compressed ranges since the 1972 free float. Year 2022 is the 50th year to the free float and this means extreme danger. Since the BOE as the first central bank in 1694, markets trade in 50 year periods and highlighted by 4 quadrants of 12 1/2 years.

50 year Periods and 4 Quadrants

Currency markets are in the 4th quadrant of the 50 year period. Previous 4th quadrant periods were always hectic to prices as markets are in the final stages of the overall 50 year cycle.

Inflation out of control, stimulus, economic experiments, wild balance sheets and unsure to overall economics is typical to 4th quadrants and leads to crazy prices without trends.

A new 1st period for the first quadrant will eventually prevail but we will see a wholesale market change from the previous 50 year period. A new market will trade but who knows to the type of markets.

Previous 1st period markets traded wonderful trends under superb economics. Then comes 2nd period market crashes and 3rd period recoveries to 4th period craziness.

This current 50 year period was designed to move by interest rates and the first ever tried in all previous 50 year cycles. Possibly another Gold standard will exist in which case, market trading is over and done. The IMF’s SDR also means market trading is over and done as SDR’s and Gold standards hasn’t moved markets since 1694. Under Gold standards, we’re out to find new professions.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD vital levels are presently located at 1.1442, 1.1650, 1.1716, 1.1865, 1.2031, 1.2038 and 1.2052.

Above 1.2052 then 1.2119, 1.2186, 1.2253, 1.2321, 1.2456, 1.2591.

See a 1.2600 target? As EUR/USD drops further then the MA lines drop so 1.2591 will travel lower.

Note 1.2052. At week’s beginning, 1.2052 was 1.2073. This is the main line driving EUR/USD’s price. I suspect this line will drop below 1.2038 and 1.2031 to form a line at 1.1900’s around 1.1948 so the middle 1.1950’s will become solid resistance against 2 MA lines.

Current EUR/USD either from 1.2073 or present 1.2052 is massively oversold and targets easily 1.2002 however caution exists at 1.1950’s.

Best Buy

May 24 was posted a trade recommendation to Best Buy Stock. Long Best Buy lows at 114.35 and highs at 115.51.

Best Buy achieved highs at 118.35 on higher and expected earnings. As suggested against a high PE ratio at 16.80 was short from 118.35.

Lows achieved 107.63 last Thursday for +11 points. Best Buy PE is now 12.74 and ready to travel higher. A good target is 110.41.

I was a stock trader many years before I even considered currencies.

Brian Twomey

Only 1 way exists to arrange trades and this method applies to all financial instruments to include any currency pair on the planet. It is the method traded by every central bank in the universe for day trades and the system was developed by central bank research during the central bank 2016 changes to interest rates.

Based on interest rates yet its a moving average system and all prices are exact. All central banks trade by moving averages and viewed from central bank Red Books, Blue Books or whatever color is used. See for yourself at any central bank.

All financial prices including currencies are Fixed, not rigged but fixed and this Fixed system allows for all trade information to be known in advance of all trades. Daily the below information changes and its imperative to maintain the daily changes for future trades.

Day trade duration is 7 1/2 hours and 3 news announcements from the 2016 changes. This is a radical change to previous 2016 day trades. Despite the changes, more opportunities exist for multiple trades as trade systems literally stole every traded pip for themselves. Day traders were left with maybe a few pips to trade but not enough to make any difference to profits.

I assure all, this is not rocket science as anyone can do it.

Only 1 other way applies to trade financial instruments and that is by exchange rates. Exchange rates not only employs to trade any financial instrument but exchange rates are used to trade other exchange rates.

Again. Anyone can do this.

Top
Vital averages
Bottom

Bottoms and tops are factored radically different as much exists to short and long trades. Think about a pip = 1/1000 of a point. Very small number compared to other larger numbers to other financial instruments.

Here’s an example of a full day trade

GBP/USD

Most Important 1.3760 and 1.3780 Vs 1.3822, 1.3831, 1.3840, 1.3849, 1.3866, 1.3875 and 1.3884

Bottom. 1.3744 achieves by 1.3779 and 1.3761
Upper target 1.3884Continuation fail 1.3849

5 vital numbers: 1.3744, 1.3760, 1.3780, 1.3849, 1.3884.

Remaining numbers offered to know exactly where prices are trading and to know if longs or shorts apply. Use a calculator daily, count on your fingers or add and subtract in your head.

DXY

For today, extract 5 vital numbers as follows: 91.76, 91.87, 91.99, 92.46 and 92.70. Short 92.70 and long 91.76.

Remaining numbers offered to know exactly where prices are trading and to know if longs or shorts applies.

WTI

For today, extract 5 vital numbers as follows: 71.28, 71.36, 71.42, 71.82 and 72.01.

S&P’s

For today, extract 5 vital numbers as follows: 4145.61, 4150.07, 4158.26, 4176.87 and 4187.29.

GOLD.

For today, extract 5 vital numbers as follows: 1755.51, 1768.75 1773.17

Advice, Gold isn’t worth a trade effort for day trades. Gold range for today is exactly 8.83 points. Nothing to trade.

Currencies remain the only game in town to profits as commodities, stock markets and all financial instruments lack ranges but this becomes an imperative to be precise in trade entries and targets.

Brian Twomey

The Fed provided an enormous opportunity for USD/EM as USD/EM followed DXY lower over the past 4 weeks and traded to oversold extremes. The FED furnished the trigger for USD/EM to trade from deeply oversold to current overbought extremes.

USD/PLN for example traveled 2000 pips higher from 3.6391 lows to current 3.8375. Significant to USD/PLN is the break above the 5 year average at 3.8004. On Fed announcement Wednesday, USD/PLN traveled from 3.7149 to 3.8464 or a 3 day total of 1300 pips.

USD/BRL traded a 1 day total of 1276 pips from 4.9819 to 5.1095. Significant to USD/BRL on a larger scale is the current close at 5.0071 is the result of 1.5297 lows in 2011 to 5.9690 highs in 2020.

A true currency price cycle trend is a duration of 9 years and USD/BRL achieved highs exactly on the 9th year. As the last remainder of a true independent currency due to BRL’s price negotiated daily by Brazilian banks rather than a standard Fix for all currencies, USD/BRL should now embark on a 9 year downtrend.

USD/BRL short, medium and longer term is massively overbought. Higher must break 5.2271. For the week, USD/BRL is massively oversold, unlike its overbought USD EM counterparts and should trade to easily 5.0737.

USD/CNY from the close at 6.4531 sits barely above vital 6.4446. USD/CNY for the week trades to 6.4753 then 6.4855 or drops below to easily 6.4344. On a longer term basis, USD/CNY trades fairly neutral without any consequential upside or downside surprises. Neutrality is the result of severe range compression experienced over the last year. USD/CNY once traded 5 and 1000 pip days only to now barely trade 400 pip weeks.

USD/DKK from the close at 6.2682 traded 6.1285 lows to 6.2779 highs in 2 days or 1400 pips. Along the price path, USD/DKK broke the 10 year average at 6.2360. USD/DKK is not only overbought but surpassed normal mathematical overbought boundaries and should trade easily to 6.1835 against caution at 6.2360.

USD/HRK, the Croatian Kuna traded from massive oversold at 6.1659 to 6.3332 highs in 3 days or 1600 pips and broke above the 10 year average at 6.2946. While overbought for the week, USD/HRK trades safely above 6.2946 and 6.2311. A break of 6.2946 targets easily 6.2684 from the close at 6.3240.

USD/HUF not only traded from 282.78 lows May 31 to 300.76 highs on Friday or 1700 pips but USD/HUF broke above the 5 year average at 286.53 then vital 293.37. USD/HUF trades overbought yet well above 5, 10 and 15 year averages. A good weekly target is 297.38 and should achieve easily.

USD/MYR achieved 500 pip highs in 3 days last week from 4.1156 to 4.1446. The 5 year average approaches at 4.1640. From the close at 4.1390, USD/MYR targets 4.1224 and significant downtrend exists on a break of 4.1150.

Never a big mover for USD/MYR however its significance serves as a complement currency to USD/RON as both exchange rates begin with the number 4 in much the same way as the number 6 to start USD/CNY, USD/DKK and USD/HRK. USD/DKK and USD/HRK are the better movers to USD/CNY and USD/RON to USD/MYR. Traded overall are decimal points to the right side of the number 4 and 6 for each currency pair.

USD/RON traded from oversold at 4.0134 May 31 to Friday highs at 4.1595 or 1400 pips. The majority of the move began last Wednesday at 4.0564 to 4.1595 or 1000 pips. USD/RON is not only massively overbought but extraordinarily overbought from Mathematical limits. Good target is located at 4.0844 and should achieve its destination easily.

USD/TRY achieved 8.7605 highs Friday from February 16 lows at 6.8928 and a 5 day total of 4600 pips from 8.2981 to 8.7605. Shorts to target 8.5980 is easily achievable. Longer term, USD/TRY sits at Richter Scale overbought and contains a long way to far lower targets at 7.0000’s.

USD/ZAR exists nothing special except a fairly neutral currency and trades safely above the 5 year average at 14.3538 from the close at 14.3943. USD/ZAR is oversold and contains potential to trade higher to 14.4816 then 14.5840.

Brian Twomey

CHF/JPY as written targets 114.00’s and from 122.00 highs, profits run +300 pips. From the 119.49 close, 500 pips exists to target for an 800 pip trade. All JPY cross pairs are heading lower to include GBP/JPY as the break is located at 151.92. CAD/JPY is on the verge at 88.36 and much upside remains to USD/CAD as the opposite pair to CAD/JPY.

JPY cross pair strategy remains short as much downside exists.

Oversold EUR/USD not only enters price problem status to inform range troubles but massive lines exist below at 1.1716 and 1.1442. Above massive hurdles exist at 1.2032 and 1.2073.

Further range problem pairs include EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD and EUR/AUD. For EUR/NZD is tracking closely to GBP/CAD. Note closes for EUR/NZD at 1.7101 and GBP/CAD 1.7201, a 100 pip separation. This current relationship cannot hold. GBP/CAD trades correctly but EUR/NZD remains massive overbought along with GBP/NZD. GBP/CAD will trade higher this week while EUR/NZD lower.

GBP/NZD target from last week holds at 1.9651 and EUR/NZD 1.6941.

GBP/USD broke 1.3985 and traded 108 pips lower but importantly, the 2000 pip price spread between GBP/USD and USD/CAD is now 1300 pips and remains far to wide. USD/CAD is the better trade especially when USD/CAD’s next massive line is located at 1.2865. USD/CAD contains much to wide ranges and ability to profit.

USD/JPY ranged 103 pips last week while USD/CHF roamed 273 pips and 353 for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD is the preferred trade as is USD/CAD’s normal. . USD/JPY for the week targets 110.63 and 110.70 then reverse short to 109.84 then 109.50.

GBP/AUD traded 253 pips last week to EUR/AUD 161. GBP/AUD will lead the way to the upcoming week.

Preferred trades this week for NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY and stand clear EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Low price and oversold DXY traded 90.30 to 92.39 or 209 pips and 50 pips short of next big break at 92.89. Below exists 91.57 and 90.24. Overall brick walls remain at MA’s 94.00’s to 95.00’s.

Brian Twomey

The current trading week offered 3 major events significant to future trade weeks. The first is JPY cross pairs finally broke major levels lower. AUD/JPY broke 83.00’s, NZD/JPY broke 77.00, CHF/JPY 119.00’s, EUR/JPY 131.00’s.

CAD/JPY is next to break 88.46 and GBP/JPY at 151.95. Once CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY break lower then uniformity exist among JPY cross pairs and all currencies trade much lower. JPY cross pairs as reported over many months traded flat to neutral without much movement.

Possibly the word is consolidation however consolidation periods are messages to giant moves ahead. and usually to trade in the opposite direction. Maybe top is the operable term.

On a longer range perspective to consolidation and tops. The 2008 crash was seen many, many months prior as EUR/JPY and EUR/USD consolidated and topped for many months in 2007 while USD/JPY bottomed. Once the crash hit, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY traded miles lower while USD/JPY went miles higher.

Seen by Statistics in my 2015 paper yet Statistics is not necessary but it is the validation to tops and consolidation. Non movement alone over many months was the early warning.

The second event over this trade week was the reversal to USD and Non USD pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Previous, EUR/USD and Non USD pairs were overbought while USD pairs were deeply oversold. A wide divide existed between USD and Non USD pairs and it was a matter of time until the wide divide compressed.

Today, USD is now deeply overbought and Non USD massively oversold. The strategy moving forward is long non USD pairs and short USD. Previous and over the past year, the overall weekly trade strategy was reversed as long USD and short Non USD. Shorts to non USD such as EUR/USD moved far more than longs and profited much more.

The last momentous event was the role reversal to currency pairs. The role reversal is seen most specifically in cross pairs as cross pairs shift allegiance by Correlations. Prior to the 2008 crash, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY correlated +90% while USD/JPY Correlated -90% to EUR/JPY and remained the stand alone currency pair. Upon the crash, roles reversed as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY eventually Correlated +90% while EUR/USD became the stand alone currency pair to Correlate -90%.

Currency cross pairs must attach by Correlations to either USD or Non USD pairs and must trade within the bounds of USD and Non USD pairs. EUR/JPY for example must trade between EUR/USD and USD/JPY to normal trade environments. EUR/JPY as the middle positioned cross pair holds the balance between EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

The early warning such as 2007 and 2008 was for cross pairs and specifically EUR/JPY to leave the normal trade bounds and a rare day for currency markets and cross pairs because it takes many years for a cross pair to leave its normal trade boundaries, specifically 9 years from 1998 to 2007 and 13 years to present day from 2008.

In August 2008, EUR/USD traded 1.6100’s, USD/JPY 95.00’s and EUR/JPY at 169.00’s. Completely missed in the 2015 paper was EUR/JPY left the normal trade bounds. Certain Statistics held EUR/JPY within bounds and balanced while other Statistics informed EUR/JPY left boundaries.

The 2 premiere Statistics were Correlations and Co Variance to inform boundaries. And the best chart was Regression Residual Plots as a complement to boundaries by a picture.

The same rare situation exists today as JPY cross pairs left normal trade bounds and was forced to trade lower. The difference from 2015 to today is an eyeball view is required rather than a slate of Statistics.

A role reversal is seen in cross pairs because its the majority of the traded market and many more pairs exist. Cross pairs are now in shift mode to transfer allegiance to either USD or non USD. This means a much different market will trade over the next many years. An allegiance shift is a Correlational transfer as seen from EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.

If EUR/JPY transfers correlation allegiances to EUR/USD and leaves USD/JPY then range expansion will exist over many years. Range compression exists when EUR/JPY Correlations allies with USD/JPY as was the case over last years.

The market term for this outline to cross pair allegiance shifts is Realignment. What Re aligns is cross pairs to USD and non USD.

Patience is required as correlational shifts take time to fully implement and to align Statistics yet big moves are ahead once fully implemented.

Shorter term by interest rates, daily EUR/JPY ranges trade wider than both USD/JPY and EUR/USD and has been the case for at least the past year or more. EUR/JPY daily upside targets are never traded to its daily maximum as daily maximums may never trade. Daily targets are traded to the next lowest daily level below maximum.

The USD Vs non USD divide to overbought and oversold is seen in daily ranges. Here, every traded pip truly matters. Oversold EUR/USD is known by range compression. A daily range compression is seen by possibly 1 or 2 pips but its the message to oversold and bottom is here.

The opposite exists for example is USD/CAD to experience range expansion. The 1 or 3 pips EUR/USD lost was gained by USD/CAD. This doesn’t mean USD/CAD will trade higher due to expanded ranges. it means the USD/CAD top is here and trade short while EUR/USD trades higher on range compression.

All non USD pairs lost daily range pips while all USD pairs gained range pips.

Currency markets and prices are Fixed to pips, ranges, entries and targets. This doesn’t mean the price is rigged as this is impossible. It means all trade information is fully known in advance.

Daily range compression or expansion is an early warning to the larger trade picture to bottoms, tops, oversold and overbought. Despite 1 , 2 and 3 pips spoken, pips truly matter as pips send market messages by a bull horn.

USD/JPY
5 vital numbers: 109.51, 109.63, 109.82, 110.34, 110.62

EUR/USD
5 vital numbers; 1.1843,1.1856, 1.1874, 1.1933, 1.1964

EUR/JPY
5 vital numbers: 130.35, 130.50, 130.82, 131.34, 131.58. Top and max 131.67.

USD/CAD
5 vital numbers: 1.2308, 1.2323, 1.2341, 1.2402, 1.2434.

Brian Twomey

From King of Trading crooks at fxstreet contributors, currency analysts and writers. The commonality to headlines says I don’t have a clue to markets, forecasts nor market prices and expectations. I’m just a writer taking up space or as the majority trade by charts and indicators and wrong placement of moving averages. Its a sad, sad day among traders today.

Nothing I can do unless traders subscribe. I assure all, our weekly trades ran perfectly and would’ve run perfectly, Fed or no Fed.

The Fed has renewed interest in the USD

Powell throws the market a curve-ball

USD lifts key resistance. The Resistance didn’t lift USD

My Favorites

Dollar soars on Fed’s dot plot shift

Fed surprises

All caught completely off guard

The FED Dot Plots are 5 year Median averages. The FED calls this Central Tendency. How much can a 5 year Median average possibly move in 1 and 2 months. Nothing and so as an indicator to anything, Dot Plots are completely meaningless.

Brian Twomey

As posted Sunday, CHF/JPY short 122.70 and 122.81 to target 121.09. Highs achieved pefectly at 122.81 and lows at current 121.15. The trade runs 166 pips and 6 pips to target. The longer range target remains 114.00’s which means a short only strategy exists for the next months until 114.00’s trade. A short only strategy exists for all JPY cross pairs.

JPY cross pair leaders are EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. Time is coming for overbought JPY cross pairs, especially against massive overbought and horrible currency USD/JPY. Sorry to inform yields don’t move USD/JPY but rather Commercial Paper rates predominantly.

In trading days long gone, the 2 and 5 year USD yield range moved USD/JPY.

Trader option was long CHF/JPY for 60 ish pips then short again at 122.81. Profits were then 226 pips instead of 166.

EUR/USD broke 1.2105 and traded lower and offered weekly trade shorts a few extra pips from yesterday’s Fed. Same for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Yesterday was provided 0.7707 shorts for AUD/USD.

GBP/USD went directly to 1.3985 and dead stopped. The big winner for the past 2 weeks was USD/CAD at 1.2308 highs from 1.2056 last week or 252 pips. As written Sunday, USD/CAD has much more upside to trade. Correct and now 1.2305 decides USD/CAD fate for higher or lower.

GBP/NZD 24 hours offered 1.9868 to 1.9661 and the range held all week. Target remains 1.9661. GBP/NZD as the better trade to EUR/NZD sits massive overbought at 1.9794 and short is the only trade.

GBP/USD’s eventual target is 1.3500’s as written. Don’t ever lose sight of forecasts because 1 day or 2 week passes doesn’t invalidate targets.

See Gold written for example May 26. Short only strategy and short 1846.00’s and traded 1803 lows. Gold is a dead mover and can’t be helped.

EUR/USD 5 big numbers today are located at 1.1931, 1.1933, 1.1947, 1.2021 and 1.2053.
GBP/USD 5 vital numbers as follows: 1.3917, 1.3921, 1.3937, 1.4023, 1.4059.

Higher Inflation rates must be supported by higher Interest rates. Either interest rates rise quicker than anticipated or Inflation must drop. Fed headline at 0.25 doesn’t support Inflation at 2 and 3% nor fed Funds at 0.06. See relationships for Inflation and Interest rates since the 1970’s.

The interest rate must support Inflation. Or the Fed will destroy consumer purchases of vital goods.

Brian Twomey

Overnight Fed rates held 0.06 daily since April 29th then 0.07 ruled daily markets from February to April and 0.08 from January to February. Fed Funds at 0.06 trades below Canada’s Corra at 0.19, below AUD and RBA at 0.10, miles below NZD and RBNZ, Below EUR and the ECB at 0.51, light years below BOJ and JPY at 0.96, below BOE and GBP at 0.04.

Here’s your evidence to a low, oversold and dead mover USD and DXY. The RBA and AUD rates trades 4 points, BOJ and JPY trades 4 points, RBNZ and NZD won’t move, BOC and Canada trades 6 points. Extremely rare day for the RBNZ to not move but they joined the no movement interest rate gang of central banks.

The ECB’s Eonia rate trades today the exact same rate as January 1. The ECB spreads interest rates an extraordinary 78 points. This is called contain EUR/USD movements as normal ECB is about 15 points and EUR moves. Its far worse for the Fed but enough to contain USD and DXY. USD means any and all USD pairs to include EM.

Here’s your evidence to dead currency and all market prices.

A Fed raise 1/2 or 0.25 point to 0.50 means 0.06 goes to 0.18 and then becomes competitive to all central banks yet still low. If Central banks wish to maintain current interest rate distance to the FED then all central banks must move then own interest rates. If central banks refuse to raise or move interest rates then currency price ranges will surely compress further as intrest rate distances constrict.

Literally all eyes on the FED as leader of interest rates and currency price moves. The job of central banks is to position interest rates competitive to the FED yet enough to restrict currency price movements.

AUD and RBA for example before the drop to 0.10, positioned RBA interest rates at exact opposite to Fed Rates. As RBA rates are so drastically low, the RBA lacks the same opportunity as rates are near zero. The typical RBNZ operation is it sets Interest rates in wide bands to stop NZD movements, much the same as the ECB is doing currently. Pretty much the same for the BOE and GBP.

Yet the latest for the BOE is move daily interest rates by moving slightly the decimal point. If yesterday’s rates traded 0.0467 then today’s rates move 0.0469. Essentially no movement and GBP trades dead.

Here’s the catch to raise Fed Rates. To taper or restrict the overall balance sheet then 0.06 as the overnight rate should trade higher naturally as interest rates and money supplies shares and must share an adverse relationship. But an 0.08 move for the overnight rate won’t see a difference to currency price moves. We need a substantial difference to rates to experience not only better daily, weekly and monthly moves but good volatility again.

Trades

EUR/USD must break 1.2105 to travel lower. The 5 vital numbers are located at 1.2066, 1.2071, 1.2087, 1.2156 and 1.2187.

AUD/USD 0.7704 decides higher to 0.7730 or lower to 0.7752. USD/CAD’s 5 vital numbers today 1.2119, 1.2125, 1.2142, 1.2212, 1.2243.

Last week USD/CAD target at 1.2201 achieved 1.2203 from 1.2056.

EUR/USD and USD/CAD contain the same exact same movements as well as support and resistance points.

GBP/NZD weekly trade from short 1.9771 to target 1.9661 traded to 1.9695 lows or + 76 pips and EUR/NZD traded +51 pips.

CHF/JPY from short from 122.70 and 122.81 achieved exactly 122.80 highs and lows to 122.26 for +54 pips.

USD/TRY 5 vital numbers for today 8.4963, 8.5070, 8.5177, 8.5605, 8.5819.

Brian Twomey