Month: January 2022

1:30 am to 2:00 am = 1.3420 to 1.3425 or 5 pips
2:00 am to 3:00 am = 1.3414 to 1.3434 or 20 pips.
3:00 am to 4:00 am = 1.3428 to 1.3443 or 15 pips. News Hour

4:00 am to 5:00 am = 1.3428 to 1.3447 or 19 pips.
5:00 am to 6:00 am = 1.3437 to 1.3447 or 10 pips.

6:00 am to 7:00 am = 1.3439 to 1.3402 or 37 pips.
7:00 to 8:00 am = 1.3420 to 1.3393 or 27 pips.
8:00 am to 9:00 am = 1.3409 to 1.3442 or 33 pips.

GBP/USD range 1.3414 to 1.3447 or 33 pips or total 4.4 pips per hour average for 7 1/2 trade hours.

GBP/USD per hour average 20.75

Europe news dominated today and GBP/USD was unaffected by trading 15 pips during the most important 3 am hour of 7 1/2 hours of trade.

Weekly total so far, 1.3386 to 1.3447 or 51 pips in 12 1/2 hours of trade since China or an hourly average of 4.08 pips.

EUR/USD 1.1145 to 1.1192 or 47 pips in 7 1/2 hours or 6.26 pips per hour average.

AUD/USD 0.7019 to 0.7075 or 56 pips in 7 1/2 hours of trade or 7.46 pips per hour average.

EUR/JPY 128.63 to 129.17 or 54 pips in 7 1/2 hours of trade or 7.2 pip hourly average.

USD/JPY 115.51 to 115.23 or 28 pips in 7 1/2 hours of trade or 3.73 pips per hour average.

Welcome to the new reality of day trades where traders make no money. If traders know what they are doing, then 1 shot per day trade exists to make as much as 20 and 30 pips. But the trade must be hit perfectly or no money is earned for the day.

But this requires 7 1/2 hours of screen watching and Americans must trade within day trade times or forget day trading.

Losers under the new day trade system are traders as no money exists anymore. Vast majority of time, price existed in neutral.

Judging by the numerous posts by traders, they are in desperate need of a strategy as they don’t have a clue what they say, trade or recommend to other traders. The reality doesn’t match the words nor does the credentials in the bio match expertise.

The day trade is a literal joke. Traders are wasting their time to day trade.

Brian Twomey

The central banks in 1972 created the first ever free float trading by pure interest rates which means a currency and market price were backed by an interest rate. A free float interest rate to free float market prices. Previous 50 year periods since the BOE in 1694 traded by Gold and Silver standards but never by interest rates. The current 50 year period by interest rate trading was the first ever experiment.

Once markets figured how an interest rate would trade to bid and ask prices, ranges, entries and exits then the day trades began around 1972. See the academic papers for more.

The exact same day trade system trades today as it did in 1972. and its central bank created. The central banks as the Drs of market destruction began playing with the concept of overnight rates to maturities in 2014 to prevent price movements with much success.

The day trade system is a special MA system since 1972 but created by central banks and factored for day trades.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD closed and opened Sunday night at 1.3386. From the 5:00 pm open to China 8:30 pm, GBP/USD traded 28 pips from 1.3385 to 1.3413. GBP/USD traded an hourly average of 8 pips and within its deviation.

Why 28 pips in 3 1/2 hours of trade is because Sunday night opens trades Friday prices as markets don’t officially open for the week until China reports currency prices.

Sunday open is the only time during the week when a currency price trades in the past. Once China reports then begins the forward price to forecast future prices.

Friday prices traded to Sunday opens is a nasty time to trade. Friday prices operates on fed prices but from 12:30 pm. Then comes 4:15 when the Fed reports interest rates. From 12:30 to 4:15 operates on 1 set of interest rates then 4:15 comes to re factor GBP/USD to last from 4:15 to the 5:00 pm close.

GBP/USD 4:15 pm Friday to the 5pm close.

Long Short Line 1.3401
Most Important 1.3353, 1.3368, 1.3384 Vs 1.3409, 1.3418, 1.3435, 1.3443, 1.3452, 1.3461 and 1.3469.

Bottom 1.3333 achieves by 1.3367 and 1.3351.
Up Target 1.3469
Continuation 1.3435.

Note 1.3384 and the close at 1.3386. Note Sunday night 5 pm to 8:30 pm trade from 1.3385 to 1.3413. To know Friday prices is to profit for 3 1/2 trade hours at the Sunday open. To not know Friday prices is to guess and speculate.

GBP/USD China to American Market Trade 8:30 pm to 1:30 am

Long Short Line 1.3408
Most Important 1.3360 and 1.3375 Vs 1.3416, 1.3425, 1.3433, 1.3442, 1.3459, 1.3467 and 1.3476

Bottom 1.3340 achieves by 1.3374 and 1.3357
Upper target 13476
Continuation Fail 1.3442

Note bottom supports Friday 1.3353 and 1.3368 Vs Asia 1.3360 and 1.3375. Big difference. Supports change and an imperative to know the changes. Note the close at 1.3386. No mysteries.

8:30 pm to 9:00 pm = 1.3406 to 1.3413 or 7 pips.
9:00 pm to 10:00 = 1.3408 to 1.3411 or 3 pips.
10 :00 pm to 11 pm = 1.3409 to 1.3414 or 5 pips.

11:00 to 12::00 = 1.3411 to 1.3419 or 8 pips.
12 :00 to 1:00 am = 1.3415 to 1.3425 or 10 pips.
1:00 am to 1:30 = 1.3415 to 1.3425.

Asia Trade Results

GBP/USD 5 hours of trade 1.3406 to 1.3425 or 19 pips. An average of 1.3415 inside a 9 pip deviation. GBP/USD traded 2 deviations. GBP/USD average per hour 3.8 pips.

For Asia, only 1 trade existed for 17 pips. The joke on traders is GBP/USD traded in neutrality without a significant trade.

GBP/USD and Fibonacci

GBP/USD 3/8 Fibonacci = 25 pips and 7/8 Fibonacci = 59 pips. Fibonacci 61.8 = 42 pips. Current Fibonacci pips are written in day trade mathematical stone and doesn’t change. Fibonacci day traders for Asia earned nothing.

American Market Day Trade 1:30 am to 9:00 am

Nothing exists to GBP economic news. Only valued news is Europe and 2nd tiered Chicago PMI for US trade which won’t move GBP/USD.

Long Short Line 1.3421
Most Important 1.3373 and 1.3388 Vs 1.3429, 1.3438, 1.3446, 1.3455, 1.3472, 1.3481 and 1.3489

Bottom 1.3353 achieves by 1.3387 and 1.3371
Upper target 1.3489
Continuation Fail 1.3455

Note bottom supports 1.3373 and 1.3388 from Asia 1.3360 and 1.3375. Pips matter for perfect entries and exists as no pips trade anymore.

1:30 am to 2:00 am = 1.3420 to 1.3425 or 5 pips
2:00 am to 3:00 am = 1.3414 to 1.3434 or 20 pips.
3:00 am to 4:00 am = 1.3428 to 1.3443 or 15 pips.

4:00 am to 5:00 am

GBP/USD range 1.3414 to 1.3443 or 29 pips and 19 pips for Asia. So far, an 11 pip per hour average.
So far, only 1 trade existed for 22 pips.
Total so far, 1.3386 to 1.3443 or 57 pips in 8 1/2 hours of trade since China or an hourly average of 6.70 pips.

For Asia and current American trading, total profit 41 pips on a total range of 57 pips.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and USD/JPY traded fairly neutral the past 2 weeks as a result of DXY resting at the 5 year average at 95.06. DXY bolted higher to 97.22 to trade near 98.00 and 99.00 monthly average tops.

DXY highs forced non USD EUR/USD, GBP, AUD and NZD to trade to extreme lows. Non USD currencies now trade at extreme lows to DXY while USD/CAD and USD/CHF trade at extreme highs. The USD Vs Non USD divide is wide and the enormous gap will close this week.

Trade instruction this week for Non USD pairs is long anywhere as entry doesn’t matter while USD/CHF and USD/CAD short anywhere as entry doesn’t matter.

BOE and ECB Preview

EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade 50 pips, possibly in the same direction. If traders don’t hit the day trade perfectly then nobody earns any money.

Day Trade Hourly Averages

GBP/USD and USD/CAD trade an hourly average of 16 pips. GBP/JPY trades 19 pips.
AUD/USD 9 pips, NZD/USD 8 pips, EUR/JPY 16 pips. EUR/USD trades 14 pips. USD/JPY at 14 pips. DXY trades 12 pips.

Factor deviations and intervals to the averages then movements are much smaller than the averages. Factor Fibonacci to day trades then its time to hang your hat because profits are impossible as Fibonacci entries and targets won’t ever trade.

A day trade factors as full and 1/2 ranges. Currency prices are trading 1/4 of the 1/2 range. A 3/8 Fibonacci factors as EUR/USD 21 pips on a 14 pip average or 7/8 as 49 pips.

Fibonacci continues its journey as a losing indicator as it fails to comply with simple averages. Fibonacci is the calculation of square roots of 5. Square roots of 5 never aligns correctly to the true market price which trades by simple averages. Now more than ever is the time to exclude Fibonacci as an indicator.

News Trading

The 21 and 23 pips trades only on off kilter news announcements but only major announcements. Off kilter to minor economic releases then prices trade within the deviation of roughly 8 pips.

For the vast majority of 72 traded hours, a currency and market price is located in neutral territory and is un tradable as neutral isn’t a traded condition. Neutral means an equal chance exists to go up or down but its a speculative guess.

Interest Rates

Fed Funds from the 1st to 99th Percentile trades 0.06 to 0.20 or 14 points. Certain days, Fed Funds trades much less. From April 2020 to current day, Fed Funds closed from 0.07 to 0.10. From August 2021 to present day, Fed Funds closed at 0.08. Fed Funds from 0.07 to 0.10 or 3 points barely moves a daily market price.

The ECB’s new STIR rate trades 4 daily points from -0.55 to -0.59 but inside an 11 point Euribor range. Japanese Call rates trades a total of 8 daily points.

Viewed from monthly averages and interest rate ranges, central banks for the first time in market history managed to hold overnight rate, maturities and interest rate ranges into the smallest ever channels.

I can take my points to a more deeply detailed depth as we’ve been trading by daily central bank interest rates for the past 7 years. The overall synopsis is the day trade has been killed off by central banks and never to return. The new standard has been in existence for better than 1 year.

Weekly Trade

The viable trade remains the weekly however with low daily trade averages, the parameters to weekly trades naturally compressed. Take EUR/USD for example at 14 pips per hourly average. Take 14 X 6 trade days equates to 84 pips as the new weekly standard. All market price weekly trade parameters compressed to nothing.

The day trade is not only dead but competent traders left the arena long ago. Remaining is an astounding level of incompetence ever produced by markets.

GBP/USD

The 5 year average is located at 1.3139. Here’s GBP/USD vital points: 1.3139, 1.3180, 1.3279, 1.3289, 1.3375 and 1.3446. 1.3498 and 1.3519.

EUR/USD

The 5 year average at 1.1522 and rising targets 1.1081. EUR/USD from long term averages are massively oversold and targets 1.1391 and 1.1399 on a long only strategy.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Week 10 to weekly trades and a grand total of 1221 pips.

Short 115.39 and 115.52 to target 114.18. Long 114.18 to target 114.58. Or short 113.79 to target 113.38. Long 113.38 to target 113.52.

USD/TRY, USD/CNY, USD/DKK, USD/HUF, USD/PLN, USD/RON, USD/MYR

USD/TRY long and short trade parameters: 13.3868, 13.4589, 13.4952, 13.6425, 13.7174 and 13.7741.

USD/CNY 6.2695, 6.3011, 6.3251, 6.3979, 6.4267, 6.4557.
USD/DKK 6.5832, 6.6181,6.4445, 6.7159,6.7476, 6.7796.

USD/HUF 327.86, 326.79, 324.67, 322.58, 320.51, 317.46.
USD/PLN 4.1736, 4.1545, 4.1339, 4.0899, 4.0733, 4.0535.

USD/RON 4.5045, 4.4843, 4.4622, 4.4150, 4.3956, 4.3744.
USD/MYR 4.2535, 4.2337, 4.2140, 4.1684, 4.1511, 4.1305.

DXY and USD is overbought. EM trade strategy is short only.

Brian Twomey

As posted Sunday for the 9th week of USD/JPY weekly trades.

Long 113.18 and 113.10 to target 113.62. Long above 113.76 to target 114.63. Short 114.63 to target 114.20.

Results: missed bottom entry by 28 pips as USD/JPY traded to lows at 113.46. So 113.76 to 114.63 for +87 pips. Then 114.63 to 114.39 lows so far and +24 pips. Total running +111 pips.

Grand total for 9 weeks +1221 pips.

USD/JPY began the week at neutral, then traded to more neutral at 113.46 and neutral at 114.63. The trade was dangerous as USD/JPY traded in pure neutral territory all week. Any price below 114.75 remains in neutrality.

While profits were 111 pips, USD/JPY traded 132 pip range this week which means we missed 21 of the full 132 traded pips yet scored on + 90% of all traded pips.

USD/CAD for BOC at 10 am traded the exact same trade as the Fed at 2:00 pm and a 4 hour difference. A repeat trade and profits existed if one knew what they were doing but this is not the case in today’s world of traded markets. The context to understanding left the building long ago.

EUR/USD for Fed traded 41 pips below and 13 pips above 1.1287. As usual, EUR/USD traded from the bottom support and failed to trade at bottoms. In actuality, the best trade was +41 pips, exit then possibly trade 1.1287 to 1.1300. Then of course comes reversals to profit from far more than 41 and 13 pips.

My interest rate system is the same exact manner traded by every central bank across the planet. The trades are the exact same. See the central bank research for proof.

Charts lie as they fail to show the proper breakdown in prices. A chartist would view the Fed move as 1.1246 to 1.1300 or 54 pips. Market prices are not that easy as traders must understand the context to breakdown to prices, the specific times to trade and know specific entries and exits in advance of the trade.

The chartist today can’t teach what is not available to trade. The results will be massive account losses plus fees charged by the chartist.

Today’s 3:00 am news candle traded 23 pips and its the biggest candle of the day so far as 5 1/2 hours exist to still profit from day trades if any profits exist.

For all the central bank blah blah talk to Inflation, wages, Bond purchases, promise to raise. All this isn’t worth a dam anymore to profits as markets died and won’t ever return to normality.

The hype doesn’t match price movements but hype seems to sell to unsuspected.

EUR/USD Day Trade

Long Short Line 1.1219
Most Important 1.1186 and 1.1199 Vs 1.1226, 1.1233, 1.1240, 11247, 1.1261, 1.1268 and 1.1276

Bottom 1.1162 achieves by 1.1190 and 1.1176
Upper target 1.1276
Continuation Fail 1.1247

EUR/USD today traded so far 1.1220 to 1.1193 or 27 pips or 13 pips per hour for each of 2 day trade hours. Note bottom points at 1.1186, 1.1190 and 1.1199. Perfect as usual despite dead markets.

Brian Twomey

Last night Asia trade 8:30 pm to 1:30 am

EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.1304
Most Important 1.1271 and 1.1283 Vs 1.1311, 1.1318, 1.1325, 11332, 1.1346, 1.1353 and 1.1361
Bottom 1.1247 achieves by 1.1275 and 1.1261
Upper target 1.1361
Continuation Fail 1.1332

Range 1.1309 to 1.1292. The level at 1.1292 traded at 1:30 am at the start of today’s day trade. To exclude 1.1292 then EUR/USD in 5 hours traded 9 pips from 1.1309 to 1.1300.

EUR/USD day trade today is the exact same trade as Asia last evening as follows.

Today EUR/USD Day trade

Long Short Line 1.1304
Most Important 1.1271 and 1.1283 Vs 1.1311, 1.1318, 1.1325, 11332, 1.1346, 1.1353 and 1.1361
Bottom 1.1247 achieves by 1.1275 and 1.1261
Upper target 1.1361
Continuation Fail 1.1332

Ranges and bottom supports at 1.1271 and 1.1283 remain the same due to day trades from the same set of interest rates.

Recall Monday’s trade from 9:00 am to 11:00 Est
EUR/USD 9 am to 11 am

Long Short Line 1.1304
Most Important 1.1267 and 1.1283 Vs 1.1311, 1.1318, 1.1325, 1.1332, 1.1346, 1.1353 and 1.1361
Bottom 1.1247 achieves by 1.1275 and 1.1261
Upper target 1.1361
Continuation Fail 1.1332.

Range remains the exact same but bottom 2 supports changed from 1.1267 and 1.1283 to 1.1271 to 1.1283.

The day trade is officially dead and gone. The central banks managed to blur the distinction between nation’s interest rates by a distance of a 2 pip interest rate differential. This means EUR/USD and USD/EUR are the same traded instrument with a 2 pip interest rate differential. GBP/USD is no different from USD/GBP and USD/CAD from CAD/USD.

The key and success of past profits to day trades was the massive distinction between nation’s interest rates so EUR/USD and USD/EUR had wide ability to trade.

Past day trades contained ability to trade full ranges for multiple profits in longs and shorts from upper highs to bottoms and bottoms to upper highs. This is no longer the case. Only on rare instances will a full range trade.

Central banks informed in 2015/ 2016 the only chance to profit from day trades was by news events only. This was true for past years as full ranges traded however today, news events are worth 20 ish pips and central bank meetings worth at most about 40 and 50 pips. Sometimes trade in the same direction and other times not.

While EUR/USD for the week traded 1.1343 to 1.1262 or 80 pips in 3 days, broken down by day trade times reveals EUR/USD traded something like 10 and 14 pips per hour over 3 days. Or 25 pips per day over 3 days.

All currencies trade the same day trade existence. Cross pairs pretty much move on a 1 to 1 basis to anchor currencies. Cross pairs were once the best trades as ranges exceeded anchor currencies but this is no longer the case.

A serious strategy adjustment is required to trade today’s markets and the strategy must be dam good. For the day trade exists one trade shot per 7 hour day trade for American markets. Miss the chance then no shot at profits exists.

Why one short because for the vast majority of the 7 hour day trade, the price trades at neutral and neutral isn’t a trade able condition.

An as expected new release will for example see no movements and the price will remain in neutral. An off kilter news release is worth about 20 pips.

Today is Fed and Bank of Canada day. What to expect, 20 and 50 pips or nothing at all.

For OIL and Gold trade far less day trade ranges than EUR/USD and all currencies. Currencies is the better trade and better chance to profit than Oil and Gold.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD
Long Short Line 1.1305
Most Important 1.1273 and 1.1284 Vs 1.1312, 1.1319, 1.1326, 1.1333, 1.1347, 1.1354 and 1.1362
Bottom 1.1248 achieves by 1.1276 and 1.1262
Upper target 1.1362
Continuation Fail 1.1333

1:30 am to 2:00 am = 1.1310 to 1.1304 or 6 pips.
2:00 am to 3:00 am = 1.1315 to 1.1301 or 14 pips

3:00 am to 4:00 am = 1.1315 to 1.1291 or 24 pips News Release
4 :00 am to 5:00 am = 1.1299 to 1.1283 or 16 pips

5:00 am to 6:00 am = 1.1290 to 1.1279 or 11 pips.
6 :00 to 7:00 am = 1.1282 to 1.1268 or 14 pips.

7:00 am to 8:00 am = 1.1277 to 1.1265 or 12 pips
8:00 am to 9:00 am = 1.1279 to 1.1266 or 13 pips.

Total range 1.1315 to 1.1266 or 49 pips or average price 1.1290. Deviation 24 pips.
Average hourly price 13.75, Deviation 4.76 pips.

1/4 of 57 pips = 14.25 pips.
49 pips of 57 = 85.96%
49 of 114 = 55.86%.

49 = 10 pips above 1.1305 and 39 below.

Yesterday Morning EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.1315
Most Important 1.1278 and 1.1294 Vs 1.1322, 1.1329, 1.1336, 1.1343, 1.1357, 1.1364 and 1.1372
Bottom 1.1258 achieves by 1.1286 and 1.1272
Upper target 1.1372
Continuation Fail 1.1343

Hourly Ranges, Note 1.1336 above and 1.1294 below

1:30 am to 2:00 am = 1.1314 to 1.1322 or 8 pips
2:00 am to 3:am = 1.1328 to 1.1319 or 9 pips

3:00 am to 4:00 am = 1.1332 to 1.1309 or 23 pips. This is new release hour.
4:00 am to 5:00 am = 1.1335 to 1.1320 or 15 pips

5 am to 6 am = 1.1327 to 1.1313 or 14 pips
6 am to 7 am = 1.1321 to 1.1300 or 21 pips

7 am to 8 am = 1.1309 to 1.1296 or 13 pips
8 am to 9 am = 1.1306 to 1.1294 or 12 pips.

Range 1.1335 to 1.1294 or 41 pips or 20 above and 21 below.
Total Hourly average price 14.37 pips, a deviation of 4.94 pips.

Before 3 am news = 8.5 pip hourly average.
3 am to 9 am = 15 pip hourly average price.

maximum range 114 pips, 1/2 range 57,
1/4 range of 57 = 14.25 pips. or 1/4 range of 114 = 28.5 pips.
1/4 of 41 pips = 10.25 pips.

2 main points to trade day trades. First is break of the Long Short Line is acceptable for profits. Second, the Continuation Fail line is an attractor of price as a target and reverse above the long short line.

Above the long short line at the upper target is another factor of math yet currency prices rarely trade to upper targets anymore. This means interest rates must cut further to strengthen the continuation fail line.

Bottom at 1.1248 today didn’t trade nor yesterday’s bottom at 1.1258. Most vital to bottoms are the 2 most important exchange rates as supports.

New release at 3:00 am appears common at 24 pips and best and easiest chance to profit quickly.

Brian Twomey

The day trade duration runs from 1:30 am EST to 9:00 AM EST. An exchange rate as in EUR/USD 1.1307 has been transformed from an interest rate to an exchange rate so traders aren’t trading interest rates to interest rates. By trading exchange rates, the frame of reference changes to understandable numbers. If any exchange rate moves even by 1 pip means an interest rate moved as an exchange rate or any market price cannot move without interest rate backing.

Below answers how bad are day trades and how much has markets died. Far worse than I believed. The day trade is irrelevant and a waste of time as traders will spend the greater part of their time watching screens and charts against practically zero movements.

My interest rate system is in place since 2015 and invented from central banks and central bank interest rates. Central banks literally destroyed interest rate movements as seen from exchange rate fluctuations.

Here’s yesterday morning EUR/USD

EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.1315
Most Important 1.1278 and 1.1294 Vs 1.1322, 1.1329, 1.1336, 1.1343, 1.1357, 1.1364 and 1.1372
Bottom 1.1258 achieves by 1.1286 and 1.1272
Upper target 1.1372
Continuation Fail 1.1343

Hourly Ranges, Note 1.1336 above and 1.1294 below

1:30 am to 2:00 am = 1.1314 to 1.1322 or 8 pips
2:00 am to 3:am = 1.1328 to 1.1319 or 9 pips

3:00 am to 4:00 am = 1.1332 to 1.1309 or 23 pips. This is new release hour.
4:00 am to 5:00 am = 1.1335 to 1.1320 or 15 pips

5 am to 6 am = 1.1327 to 1.1313 or 14 pips
6 am to 7 am = 1.1321 to 1.1300 or 21 pips

7 am to 8 am = 1.1309 to 1.1296 or 13 pips
8 am to 9 am = 1.1306 to 1.1294 or 12 pips.

Range 1.1335 to 1.1294 or 41 pips or 20 above and 21 below.
Total Hourly average price 14.37 pips, a deviation of 4.94 pips.

Before 3 am news = 8.5 pip hourly average.
3 am to 9 am = 15 pip hourly average price.

maximum range 114 pips, 1/2 range 57,

1/4 range of 57 = 14.25 pips. or 1/4 range of 114 = 28.5 pips.
1/4 of 41 pips = 10.25 pips.

EUR/USD 10 am to 11 am

Long Short Line 1.1304
Most Important 1.1267 and 1.1283 Vs 1.1311, 1.1318, 1.1325, 1.1332, 1.1346, 1.1353 and 1.1361
Bottom 1.1247 achieves by 1.1275 and 1.1261
Upper target 1.1361
Continuation Fail 1.1332.

9 am to 10 am = 1.1303 to 1.1289 or 14 pips
10 am to 11 am = 1.1290 to 1.1304 or 14 pips.

EUR/USD Asia 8:30 PM to 1:30 am

 EUR/USD Asia 8:30 to 1:30 am 

Long short Line 1.1322
Most Important 1.1290 and 1.1301 Vs 1.1329, 1.1336, 1.1343, 1.1350, 1.1364, 1.1371 and 1.1379

Bottom 1.1265 achieves by 1.1293 and 1.1279

Upper target 1.1379
Continuation fail 1.1350

8:30 pm est to 9:00 pm = 1.1304 to 1.1310 or 6 pips
9 pm to 10 pm = 1.1309 to 1.1317 or 8 pips

10 pm to 11 pm = 1.1308 to 1.1313 or 5 pips
11 pm to 12 pm = 1.1315 to 1.1309 or 6 pips

12 pm to 1 am = 1.1313 to 1.1307 or 6 pips
1 am to 1:30 am = 1.1309 to 1.1305 or 4 pips.

Total range 1.1304 to 1.1317 or 13 pips and hourly average 1.1310.
Average hourly price 5.83 pips, a deviation of 1.21 pips.

Brian Twomey

At week’s start, EUR/USD begins at 1.1343 and USD/JPY at 113.65. Week 2 to USD/JPY living its currency market life as the permanent disruptor to price uniformity among all currencies. USD/JPY’s big break is located at 113.76. What can we possibly do with this.

From EUR/USD and 3 seconds, we can view ranges as 112.51 to 114.78. Both targets end with USD/JPY in neutrality and a continued problem for USD/JPY as neutrality is not a trade able condition. USD/JPY at 113.65 begins the week in neutrality.

Currency markets are split into 2 separate entities: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Vs AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The driving line is right at about a factor or 2 to account for 2 currencies above parity and 2 below. Parity is the driving factor and the same situation for all financial instruments.

Between EUR and GBP and AUD and NZD is USD/JPY and USD/CAD. USD Vs non USD contains an equal chance to drive and lead markets as from the 2 top currencies or 2 bottom currencies or the USD middle.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are non USD leaders due to higher ranges then ranges compress to AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The current inherent problem with currency prices is all ranges are compressed and strangled by moving averages.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD ranges fairly equal AUD/USD and NZD/USD. EUR/USD and USD/JPY ranges are fairly equal. GBP/USD and USD/CAD ranges are fairly equal. USD/JPY slight beats USD/CAD.

As anchor pairs lead currency markets, cross pairs naturally fall into a force compliance to range compression. The distortion to present currency prices is seen in overbought and oversold readings as readings are not true to movement conditions.

Understanding to this concept is actually a benefit as trading compressed range markets is much easier and just as profitable. The only difference to wide ranges is the adjustment to distances.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD begin the week oversold and all cross pairs are compliant to oversold. The translation is AUD/USD and NZD/USD is oversold to EUR/USD and GBP/USD as well as in its own price while EUR/USD and GBP/USD begins the week in neutrality.

GBP/NZD has been a fairly consistent currency to hold acceptable weekly ranges and to provide constant profits. Ironically, EUR/USD is the next pair as weekly trade rankings remain constant around the number 1 position. GBP/NZD and EUR/USD won’t disappoint this week.

Currency prices appear to hold a 2 week theme. USD/JPY this week for example begins in the same horrible position as last week while the prior 2 weeks, USD/JPY ran and traded terrific for a source of good profits.

After this week, USD/JPY should be on track to trade 2 great weeks then back to dead neutral and terrible positions for the upcoming 2 weeks. JPY cross pairs find themselves in the same position as USD/JPY.

All 6 GBP pairs ran well last week yet normally, 3 of the 6 pairs rank as favored trades. From 13 currency pairs to exclude the 6 GBP pairs, about 5 and 6 pairs are worthy to rank high on the favored list. On good weeks, as high as 8 pairs rank favorably and 5 pairs as low rankings.

USD/CAD last week was a poor performer and this week is no different to expected performance. CAD/CHF is the problem and mispositioned between CAD/JPY and USD/CAD. USD/CAD for the past 6 months hasn’t changed as its range remains 1.2269, 1.2585 and 1.3022.

GBP/USD big break is located at 1.3587 and USD/JPY 113.76 or 115.11 and 112.40. Best 3 GBP pairs this are are GBP/USD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD.

SPX 500 Update

SPX 500 From December 7 Post
Targets are located at 4497.09. then 4268.80, 4032.75, 3859.03.
Lows 4397
Trade Runs +300 ish points from 4700’s or 300 points in 7 weeks. or roughly 44 points per week.

EUR/USD Vs SPX 500

EUR/USD traded 258 pips in the past 7 weeks from 1.1200’s to 1.1400’s, or 129 points per month or roughly 35 pips per week and runs comparable to SPX.

WTI From June 21 post

Higher targets and short points can easily travel to 79.99, 85.15, 89.43, 91.80, 92.02, 93.16 and 94.16.

Since June: Range 61.62 to 86.96 or 25 points

Monthly average range in 7 months, 3.5 points per month. June’s price was right at 65.00 as WTI traded at the 23 year monthly average. Short in June as well as today contains a continued short only strategy.

How many shorts completed in 7 months.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Last week was the 9th trade in 9 weeks and profit was +84 pips for a total of 1110 pips.
Long 113.18 and 113.10 to target 113.62. Long above 113.76 to target 114.63. Short 114.63 to target 114.20.

Brian Twomey

If USD/JPY was part of the weekly 19 currency pair trade line up, then its place would sit last along with EUR/USD and alongside CAD/CHF. At least for this week due to the positions of USD/JPY and EUR/USD.

Top ranking earns the distinction to easy trade, many pips and no worries. A horrible position currency and not clear to entries and targets earns last place as the struggle for the trade isn’t worth the effort. Many more currencies exist.

Both USD/JPY and EUR/USD trades posted yesterday performed perfectly yet what was required was EUR/USD 1.1444, DXY 95.06 and USD/JPY 113.90 to resolve itself. This resolution took 1 day. To embark on the trade Sunday or Monday without settlement is to roll-the-dice gamble.

As our many, many years of writings on Fxstreet demonstrated, we don’t gamble nor speculate. But we also don’t use faulty charts, indicators, stops nor concerned with the latest market talk to central banks, interest rate changes and economics. All this is irrelevant to the price. Our only concern is entry, exit and maximum profits.

USD/JPY

The trade. Short 115.10 and 115.18 to target 114.54. Long 114.54 to target 114.81.
The results. 115.06 to 114.51 or +55 pips. Long 114.54 to 114.81 or +32 pips. Total 2 trades, +87 pips.

USD/JPY weekly Range 114.11 to 115.06 or 93 pips. We profit 87 of 93.

EUR/USD

The trade. EUR/USD on a break at 1.1388 targets 1.1331. Long 1.1331 to target 1.1359.

The Results. 1.1388 to 1.1326 or +62 pips. Long 1.1331 to 1.1359 or +3 pips. Ongoing trade.

EUR/USD weekly range: 1.1433 to 1.1326 or 107 pips. We profit 64 pips or 60% of traded pips. So far.

EUR/USD +USD/JPY total +152 pips.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD began the week at 1.1414 and USD/JPY at 114.26. Both are the exact same exchange rates. DXY began the week at 95.15 and 8 pips above the 5 year average at 95.06.

DXY tops at 98.00 and 99.00 technically reverts to USD/JPY 117.00’s and EUR/USD at current 1.1072 target. The 117.00 problem is USD/JPY is not supported above 116.22 and 116.42. Both represent multi year highs dating to 2011 and beyond.

USD/JPY is massively overbought from short and longer dated averages while all averages are dropping. A short only strategy is required for USD/JPY as longs are impossible.

EUR/USD averages continue to rise and next vital is 1.1518 at the 5 year average. EUR/USD 1.1387 held yet again this morning at 1.1391 then bounce to 1.1415.
DXY next above is located at 95.20, 95.60, 96.99, 97.77 and 98.07. Below 94.85, 94.03 and 94.08.

The EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship began at most vitals 1.1444 and 113.90. A 50/ 50 tossup to 1.1444, 113.90 and DXY 95.06.

USD/JPY weekly Trade

Short 115.10 and 115.18 to target 114.54. Long 114.54 to target 114.81.

EUR/USD on a break at 1.1388 targets 1.1331. Long 1.1331 to target 1.1359.

DXY break below 95.06 offers a green light to long every non USD pair and short all USD to include EM currencies.

The EUR/USD, USD/JPY and DXY relationship is tight and boxed by moving averages.

Brian Twomey

As DXY broke below its 5 year average at 95.25 last Wednesday, EUR/USD traded exactly to its 3 year monthly average at 1.1480 and just ahead of the 5 year average at current 1.1517. EUR/USD averages continue to rise and the downside target is now located at 1.1070.

While EUR/USD’s response to the DXY break was correct and immediate by shooting higher, USD/JPY’s downside answer was a laggard move by 2 full trade days. USD/JPY traded above its vital point Wednesday at 114.03 then bounced, 113.96 Thursday then bounced and finally broke 113.90 on Friday. USD/JPY achieved lows Friday at 113.46 or 44 pips.

USD/CHF’s immediate reaction to DXY was seen by the break at 0.9203 Wednesday and eventually bolted 112 pips to 0.9091 lows Thursday.

USD/CAD as leader of the big 3 USD pairs was already in its downtrend Tuesday by the break lower at 1.2665 and traded 215 pips to 1.2450 lows.

EUR/USD from the 1.1387 break to 1.1480 traded 93 pips, DXY traded 62 pips lower to 94.63, USD/CHF achieved 112 pips and 44 pips for USD/JPY. Rare day for DXY as market leader due to the same comparable ranges to EUR/GBP but the 95.25 break was overwhelming and required immediate movements from all currencies and market instruments.

As stated over many years, USD/JPY was born and lives its trade life as a horrible currency pair and this explains why USD/JPY was never included in the weekly trade lineup.

DXY’s new 5 year average level is located at 95.06. The 5 year average is a mid point to tops at 98.00’s and 99.00’s Vs bottoms at 92.00’s and 91.00’s. DXY above or below 95.00 represents a 400 pip range.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF at current 0.9100, trades at DXY 91.00 bottoms. To travel higher, USD/CHF must break 0.9138, 0.9183 and 0.9240. A brick wall of averages exist from 0.9400’s to 0.9600’s. In order for USD/CHF to test 0.9400’s and 0.9500’s, DXY must trade to tops at 98.00’s and 99.00’s.

The current 95.00 DXY and 0.9100 USD/CHF relationship holds right around a 300 pips range and will remain permanent for the distant future. For DXY to trade to 92.00’s and 91.00 bottoms then USD/CHF must trade to 0.8900’s and 0.8800’s.

The Week

Currency and all markets are tied to EUR/USD 1.1517 and DXY 95.06. An average trade week is ahead without any dramatic moves. On the GBP side, best trades are located in GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD while nothing special exists to GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD. GBP/JPY top at reported 157.00’s traded to 155.00’s.

Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY begin the week in terrible positions and EUR/USD is at the bottom of weekly trade rankings. NZD/USD and NZD cross pairs begin the week oversold as well as AUD/USD and AUD cross pairs. AUD pairs are the better trades as NZD has been a dead issue since November. NZD/USD last week was the worst performing currency to the DXY 95.25 break.

USD/JPY

Last week’s target achieved 114.85 however entries never materialized. USD/JPY trade last week is written as no trade. This week’s trade is a pass until a viable entry exists. Stay tuned.

Brian Twomey

As written many times over months, DXY’s 5 year average at 95.25 broke lower today and dead stopped at 94.95 or the mid point from 95.25 and next vital level below at 94.70. To continue, DXY must break 94.70 then 94.20 and 93.71. The final bottom is located at 92.00’s and 91.00’s.

DXY’s break sent non USD higher to not only overbought but big levels approaches. GBP/USD next is 1.3715 and 1.3760. Short is the way forward.

EUR/USD

As written Sunday, EUR/USD broke 1.1387 and traded to 1.1422 target then continued higher to 1.1452. If DXY travels lower then EUR/USD targets 1.1473, 1.1509 and 1.1545. Below break at 1.1436 coincides to DXY 95.25. Below EUR/USD targets 1.1363 and 1.1290.

USD/JPY

Deeply oversold USD/JPY next below is located at 113.97. Failure to break, weekly target for longs remains 115.90 and 116.01. Target at 114.85 achieved however lows traded to 114.30’s.

AUD/USD and NZD

AUD/USD next above 0.7303, 0.7332 and 0.7351. Break lower at 0.7356 targets much lower. As written many times, NZD/USD big break 0.6840 and 0.6854. NZD/USD dead stopped 0.6856. Next above 0.6867. Watch overbought AUD/JPY 82.69 for lower and NZD/JPY 78.25.

GBP/JPY 157.00’s trades at the top of multi year range.

CHF/JPY 123.96 for lower.

USD/CAD V CAD/JPY

CAD/JPY remains deeply overbought to follow its brother AUD/JPY. Look for CAD/JPY target at 90.96. Deeply oversold USD/CAD same old story, 6 months later. Vitals remain at 1.2262, 1.2647 and 1.3026.

Gold

GOLD as written December 12 when Gold traded 1783. Gold traded to 1833 highs January 3rd and achieved lows at 1781 on January 7. Trade instruction Targets above 1805.10 and excellent short entries are found at 1818.48, 1864.53, 1874.58 and 1912.09.

Yields, 2, 5, 10 and 30 Year.

As written December 29, the 2 year range was located from 0.3376 to 0.8871.Above 0.8871, targets the range from 0.8871 to 1.2865. The 2 year achieved 0.9497.

The 5 year trades 1.0870 to 1.4927. Above 1.4927 targets an 8 point range from 1.4927 to the 5 year monthly average at 1.5744. Highs achieved 1.5565.

The 10 year traded a range from 1.4564 to 1.8095. Highs achieved 1.8060 and the range held.

The 30 year trades 2 ranges from 1.7987 to the 1 year average at 2.0261 then the 3 year at 2.0581 and 2.3126. Highs achieved 2.149.

DXY 95.25 is the overall driver to currency and markets

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD begins the week 27 pips below the next vital level at 1.3787. Above, targets 1.1414 and 1.1422. EUR/USD story remains the same over week. Longer dated averages are oversold and driving EUR higher. The rising 5 year average is now located at 1.1514 and a target at 1.1064.

The only positive to EUR/USD shorts to longer term targets is EUR/USD trades below all monthly averages dating to 10 years yet all averages are rising. The second positive is January enters EUR/USD’s traditional seasonal downtrend. Dating to 1995, EUR/USD records 15 down months for January and 8 up months. For 2019 ended the month with a Doji candle.

EUR/USD’s downtrend to gain speed must break 1.1289 then 1.1211. The overall trade strategy is long drops as more pips will profit on the upside.

CHF/JPY

CHF/JPY is held higher by 123.98 and 120.65. Both are overbought as well as every average dating to 100.00’s from 2002. CHF/JPY is a USD pair as it correlates to USD/JPY at +90%.

USD/JPY and Weekly Trade

USD/JPY longs last week targeted 115.53 then short and USD/JPY for the 2nd time in 8 weeks, we were forced to add 1 lot. USD/JPY’s problem in the last 2 weeks is not longs as longs achieved targets but the problem is shorts. From 115.53, USD/JPY traded a free money bonus by 80 pips higher to 116.34.

For the 2nd time in 8 weeks of USD/JPY weekly trades, add 1 lot was forced at 116.34. Two options then existed. Either trade both lots to target or exit the 2nd lot at 15.53.

Addition of the 2nd lot at 116.34 to 115.53 + 81 pips. Longs from 115.08 to 115.53 then +45 pips. Total 2 trades +126 pips. Total for 8 trades + 1026 pips. USD/JPY lows for last week achieved 115.46

USD/JPY short 115.90 and 116.01 to target 114.85. Long 114.85 to target 115.43.

DXY Vs USD/JPY

USD/JPY begins the week fairly neutral from overbought over the past 2 weeks while DXY achieved lows last week at 95.62 and 95.56 on the previous week. DXY 95.25 remains the big break to target 92.00’s. Both USD/JPY and CHF/JPY then drop substantially to USD/JPY 110.00’s and CHF/JPY 118.00’s and 117.00’s. Both USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are miles overbought.

JPY Cross Pairs

All JPY cross pairs remain massive overbought to include GBP/JPY. Best trades this week: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY. AUD/JPY faces headwinds at 83.56 and 84.46. NZD/JPY is least favored.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD levels are located at 1.3298, 1.3365, 1.3448, 1.3492 and 1.3629. Not only is the 5 year average at 1.3124 but many averages exist at 1.3100’s. GBP/USD averages are rising and the same story as EUR/USD.

GBP/AUD remains a problem currency and EUR/AUD is the better trades despite tiny ranges.

USD/CAD

Vital points are found at 1.2250, 1.2467, `1.2676, 1.2851 and 1.3027.

For interested, on my blog at btwomey.com is posted 19 currency trades and results from last week and +1200 pips. For 6 currency pairs were completed in 3 weekly trades each while 4 currencies completed in 2 trade per currency.

While I maintain profit is realized from at least 50% of all traded pips. 50% is factored from weekly trades in each of 17 weeks in 2019. Markets are dead today therefore 50% must be much higher today.

Most fascinating is the perfection and consistency to trades over many years but I worked extremely hard for this accuracy. We’re doing 1000 pips per week effortlessly each and every week.

Brian Twomey

Dear all,

I began tracking weekly trade results in 2019 for 17 weeks or 4 months on 12 currency pairs to understand the context to what I’m doing. Profit by 50% to all traded pips is the result of longs and shorts per currency pair.

I no longer track and report below stats because I’m just as perfect today to entries, targets and weekly consistency on 19 currency pairs. The profit pips and weekly pip profit averages are higher. Plus what a job every Friday as I don’t use a computer. Took hours by hand to track trades, results and factor averages.

The weekly trades every week were all posted on Sunday and reported results here on my blog for verification.

Most fascinating is the perfection and consistency but I worked extremely hard for this accuracy. Tell me Goldman Sachs, hedge funds or any bank better than me. I doubt it.

Actual Profit Pips = 23,021

Actual Pip Profit Average 1292

We profit on Average 1292 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. Mathematically, SD on 17 weeks and 12 currency pairs = 650.40 and 1/2 of 1292 = 646.

Further, Signal/ Noise Ratio Vs Variation equates to 1.98 Vs 0.50. The Signal is perfect and high Vs its 50 % Variation. We are dead on track to report profit on 50% of all traded pips.

Weekly Pips Totals for 17 weeks

911

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 =1292 Pips Average

Brian Twomey

Forget JPY cross pairs. Totals 915 pips. To include JPY cross pairs then 1258 Pips. 3 trades running, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD.

NZDJPY

Short Anywhere or 78.81 and 78.90 to target 78.26.
Highs 79.20, Lows 77.90
target 78.26 achieved +64 pips

2nd Leg Short below 78.17 to target 77.80 +37 pips
3rd Leg Long 77.80 to target 78.08.
NZDJPY totals +101 pips

CADJPY

Short Anywhere or 91.01 to target 89.61
Highs 91.64, Lows 90.27
From 91.01, +74 pips

EURJPY

Short Anywhere or 131.15 to #target 130.22
Highs 131.59, Lows 130.66
trade runs +48 pips

AUDJPY

short Anywhere or 83.69 to target 82.66

Highs 84.34, Lows 82.66, target achieved +168 pips

Brian Twomey

Currency markets this week applied to 19 currency pairs contained 2 common themes to begin the week. Range problems and weekly starting positions. Weekly start position begins the week as overbought, oversold or neutral.

The breakdown to range and starting positions as most vital is a 40 to 50 pip differential to entries yet not to every currency pair. USD/JPY begins the explanation.

USD/JPY longs this week targeted 115.53 then short and USD/JPY for the 2nd week running traded overbought to higher overbought. USD/JPY’s problem in the last 2 weeks is not longs as longs achieved targets but the problem is shorts. From 115.53, USD/JPY traded a free money bonus by 80 pips higher to 116.36.

Longs ran +45 pips so shorts are off by 35 pips. Add 1 lot to 116.36, USD/JPY traded to lows at 115.62 or +74 pips. Hold the 1st lot at +45 then +119 pips and running to target. Exit the 1st lot at +45, the 2nd lot then runs to target.

USD/JPY 80 pips. By USD/JPY as an anchor pair misses by 80 pips then JPY cross pairs can’t possibly miss an entry by the same 80 pips. JPY cross pairs trade inside 2 anchor pairs such as EUR/JPY trades between EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

WEEKLY Trades

EUR/USD Break Point 1.1446, above targets 1.1529.
Strategy. Short 1.1415 and 1.1425 to target 1.12980. Must cross 1.1395, 1.1375, 1.1355, 1.1335, 1.1315 and 1.1295. Long 1.1280 to target 1.1321. 

EUR/JPY Break Point 129.83, below targets 129.30.

Strategy. Short Anywhere or 131.15 to target 130.22. Must cross 130.89, 130.76, 130.63, 130.50, 130.37, 130.24 and 130.11. Long 130.22 to target 130.49. 

CAD/JPY Break Point 89.41, below targets 89.01.

Strategy. Short Anywhere or 91.01 to target 89.61. Must cross 90.82, 90.63, 90.44, 90.25, 90.06, 89.87 and 89.68. Short below 89.41 to target 89.01. Long 89.01 to target 89.26. Cautious long 89.61 to target 89.91.

AUD/JPY Break Point 82.50, below targets 82.18.

Strategy. Short Anywhere or 83.69 to target 82.66. Must cross 83.48, 83.27, 83.06, 82.85 and 82.64. Short below 82.50 to target 82.18. Long 82.18 to target 82.39. Cautious long 82.66 to target 82.94. 

AUD/USD. Break Point 0.7273, above targets 0.7343.

Strategy. Short 0.7263 to target 0.7183. Must cross 0.7243, 0.7223, 0.7203 and 0.7183. Long 0.7183 to target 0.7233. Or Long above 0.7273 to target 0.7343. Short 0.7343 to target 0.7203. 

EUR/AUD Break Point 1.5738, above targets 1.5792.

Strategy. Long 1.5639 and 1.5630 to target 1.5693. Must cross 1.5657, 1.5675, 1.5693. Long above 1.5738 to target 1.5792. Short 1.5792 to target 1.5756. Cautious short 1.5693 to target1.5648. 

NZD/JPY Break Point 78.17, below targets 77.80. 

Strategy. Short Anywhere or 78.81 and 78.90 to target 78.26. Must cross 78.63, 78.45 and 78.27. Short below 78.17 to target 77.80. Long 77.80 to target 78.08. Cautious long 78.26 to target 78.53. 

USD/CAD Break Point 1.2690, above targets 1.2795.  

Strategy. Long 1.2585 and 1.2577 to target 1.2675. Must cross 1.2600, 1.2615, 1.2630, 1.2645, 1.2660 and 1.2675. Long above 1.2690 to target 1.2795. Short 1.2795 to target 1.2735. Cautious short 1.2675 to target 1.2615. 

NZD/USD Break Point 0.6891, above targets 0.6936. 

Strategy. Short 0.6869 and 0.6874 to target 0.6792. Must cross 0.6847, 0.6825, 0.6803 and 0.6792. Long 0.6792 to target 0.6847. 

AUD/CHF Break Point 0.6687, above targets 0.6720. 

Strategy. Long 0.6619 and 0.6610 to target 0.6677. Must cross 0.6635, 0.6651, 0.66 7 and 0.6672. Long above 0.6687 to target 0.6720. Short 0.6720 to target 0.6695. Cautious short 0.6677 to target 0.6653. 

NZD/CHF Break Point 0.6335, above targets 0.6397. 

Strategy. Long 0.6226 and 0.6218 to target 0.6294. Must cross 0.6246, 0.6267 and 0.6286. Short 0.6294 to target 0.6252. 

CAD/CHF Break Point 0.7246, above targets 0.7298. 

Strategy. Long 0.7158 and 0.7149 to target 0.7229. Must cross 0.7175, 0.7192, 0.7209 and 0.7214. Long above 0.7246 to target 0.7298. Short 0.7298 to target 0.7264. Cautious short 0.7229 to target 0.7176. 

EUR/NZD Break Point 1.6611, below targets 1.6537. 

Strategy. Short 1.6675 and 1.6685 to target 1.6620. Must cross 1.6657, 1.6639 and 1.6621. Short below 1.6611 to target 1.6537. Long 1.6537 to target 1.6683. Cautious long 1.6620 to target 1.66 5. 

                 GBP

Favored trades this week: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD.

GBP/USD Break Point 1.3499, below targets 1.3375. 

Strategy. Short 1.3570 and 1.3587 to target 1.3516. Must cross 1.3553, 1.3536 and 1.3519. Short below 1.3499 to target 1.3375. Long 1.3375 to target 1.3429. Cautious long 1.3516 to target 1.3552. 

GBP/JPY Break Point 153.14, below targets 152.52.

Strategy. Short Anywhere or 155.78 to target 153.74. Must cross 155.58, 155.38, 155.18, 154.98, 154.76, 154.58, 154.38, 154.18, 154.08, 153.88 and 153.81. Long 153.74 to target 153.95. 

GBP/NZD Break Point 1.9592, below targets 1.9483. 

Strategy. Short Anywhere or 1.9783 and 1.9796 to target 1.9653. Must cross 1.9756, 1.9729, 1.9700, 1.9673 and 1.9646. Long 1.9653 to target 1.9701. 

GBP/CHF Break Point 1.2410, above targets 1.2469. 

Strategy. Long 1.2285 and 1.2278 to target 1.2373. Must cross 1.2299, 1.2313, 1.2327, 1.2341, 1.2355 and 1.2369. Long above 1.2410 to target 1.2469. Short 1.2469 to target 1.2432. Cautious short 1.2373 to target 1.2322.

GBP/CAD Break Point 1.7127, above targets 1.7182.

Strategy. Short 1.7109 and 1.7118 to target 1.7053. Must cross 1.7091, 1.7073 and 1.7055. Long 1.7053 to target 1.7099. Or Long above 1.7127 to target 1.7182. Short 1.7182 to target 1.7146. 

GBP/AUD Break Point 1.8562, below targets 1.8533.

Strategy. Short anywhere or 1.8613 and 1.8620 to target 1.8569. Must cross 1.8599, 1.8585 and 1.8573. Short below 1.8562 to target 1.8533. Long 1.8533 to target 1.8555. Cautious long 1.8569 to target 1.8591. 

WEEKLY Trade Results

  EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD

EUR/USD short 1.1415 and 1.1425 to target 1.1280. Highs 1.1383, lows 1.1272. From 1.1383 to 1.1280, +103 pips.
2nd Leg Long 1.1280 to target 1.1321. Highs 1.1345. +41 pips.
EUR/USD Total +144.

AUD/USD Short 0.7263 to target 0.7183. Highs 0.7276, lows 0.7143. From 0.7263 to 0.7183, +80 pips.
2nd Leg Long 0.7183 to target 0.7233.Lows 0.7143.
AUD/USD total +80.

GBP/USD Short 1.3570 and 1.3587 to target 1.3516. Highs 1.3597, target achiebed at 1.3516 but lows 1.3490. From 1.3587 to 1.3516, +71 pips.
2nd GBP/USD, Short below 1.3499 to target 1.3375.
GBP/USD total +71.

USD/CAD Long 1.2585 and 1.2577 to target 1.2675. Lows 1.2629, highs 1.2675 achieved.
2nd Leg, Long above 1.2690 to target 1.2795. highs 1.2810. Target achieved +105 pips.
3rd Leg Short 1.2795 to target 1.2735, lows 1.2749. +46 pips.
USD/CAD total +151 pips.

NZD/USD Short 0.6869 and 0.6874 to target 0.6792. Highs 0.6855, lows 0.6733. From 0.6855 to 0.6792, +63 pips.
2nd Leg Long 0.6792 to target 0.6847.
NZD/USD Total +63.

GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF

GBP/CHF Long 1.2285 and 1.2278 to target 1.2373, Lows 1.2314, Target 1.2373 achieved, +59 pips.
2nd Leg, Long above 1.2410 to target 1.2469, Highs 1.2456, +46 pips.
3rd Leg, Short 1.2469 to target 1.2432. Highs 1.2455, lows 1.2432. +23 pips.
GBP/CHF total +128 pips.

AUD/CHF Long 0.6619 and 0.6610 to target 0.6677. Lows 0.6597, target achieved. +67 pips.
2nd leg Long above 0.6687 to target 0.6720.. Not triggered.
3rd Leg Cautious short 0.6677 to target 0.6653. Target achieved +24 pips.
AUD/CHF Total +91.

NZD/CHF Long 0.6226 and 0.6218 to target 0.6294, lows 0.6210, highs 0.6261, +51 pips and running.
2nd leg Short 0.6294 to target 0.6252. Not yet triggered.

CAD/CHF Long 0.7158 and 0.7149 to target 0.7229. Not triggered yet.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD

EUR/AUD Long 1.5639 and 1.5630 to target 1.5693, Lows 1.5576, target achieved from 1.5630, + 46 pips.
2nd Leg Long above 1.5738 to target 1.5792. Highs 1.5810. target achieved +54 pips.
3rd Leg Short 1.5792 to target 1.5756. Target achieved, +36 pips
EUR/AUD total +90.

GBP/AUD not recommended. Here’s why. Short anywhere or 1.8613 and 1.8620 to target 1.8569. Highs 1.8893. GBP/AUD isn’t trade able.

EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD

EUR/NZD Short 1.6675 and 1.6685 to target 1.6620.Highs 1.6670, lows 1.6540. From 1.6670 to 1.6620, +50 pips.
2nd Leg Short below 1.6611 to target 1.6537, Lows 1.6541. + 96 pips.
3rd Leg Long 1.6537 to target 1.6683, lows 1.6541, target achieved +46
EUR/NZD total +192.

GBP/NZD Short Anywhere or 1.9783 and 1.9796 to target 1.9653. High 2.00

GBP/JPY Short Anywhere or 155.78 to target 153.74, Highs 157.76. Lows 156.11. Target holds.

Total Pips 915 so far.

Brian Twomey

Titled trade service for interested to find the receiving end to trades. I never considered myself a trade service nor do I solicit traders to join as my intention was never to become a trade service. It came by accident about 7 years ago to assist a few traders and exporters. By trade postings and results, more traders came and many remained over many years. I merely assist traders interested in trades.

Now and then a horrible week exist but never worry as only an entry was missed but never a target so trades are repaired to profit or at minimum, to breakeven. Over time, traders are highly profitable and the reason to stay on.

The price is $300 per month for 1000 ish pips per week and more on most weeks. See June and July 2019 for profit methodologies. I also know as many informed, $300 is quite low in relation to trader profits. This isn’t a get rich quick scheme or profit center in monthly revenue. God blessed me and I return blessings to those in need in my community.

Weekly Currency trades contain 4 trades per 18 currency pairs in order to trade continuously throughout the week. Possibly only 2 trades may exist but we’re prepared for any market event including possible crashes.

On 18 currency pairs, 4 trades each is 72 weekly trades. If only 2 trades exist per currency pair equates to 36 trades.

As seen here over many years, trades are not only self explanatory but entries and targets are provided as well as vital levels in order to watch the trades but also to exit at any point along the way. All account sizes are accommodated in this regard.

Weekly profit per currency pair is around 150 pips for 2 trades per currency pair. 1000 pips per week is quire common. Our best week was 2500 pip February 2019 at Brexit time but we traded 10 and 12 currency pairs then.

Essentially, we trade the entire currency market every week and certain EM currencies. Those busy during the week and no time to watch charts or prices then our trades are perfect.

Daily trades amount to 80 trades per week for 8 currency pairs, 90 to include AUD/EUR or EUR/AUD. Day trades represent extra pips for the week while waiting for weekly entries and targets.

All required for traders is click on entry and target and this is carefully factored every week and over many, many years.

After 17 years and much time and effort to study the currency price, its understood and mastered. We trade numbers, not charts, nor are stops required. As I always said , whatever you think you know or thought you knew must be discarded at the door because its all wrong.

We’re miles past and far more experienced than the trading crowds, trade services and crooked websites. This is my benefit and my hindrance because I’m out of step to the trading crowds.

No need for trade rooms, nor am I able to post on youtube. Post what?, numbers. Crowds require pictures when this is not used by us. I’m not here to waste your time as I am a serious trader to assist other serious traders.

Brian Twomey, [email protected]

The 2 year yield traded Monday and Tuesday 4 points from 0.7574 to 0.8028 and 0.7527 to 0.8002. The monthly range is located from 0.3376 to 0.8871. The 2 year held 2 supports at 0.6123 and 0.7497. The 2 year hit bottom support, rose and maintained its range. The daily Treasury yield rates reported 0.77 Tuesday and 0.78 Monday at its normal 7:30 am EST start time.

The 5 year yield traded Monday 7 points from 1.2916 to 1.3696 and 1.3486 to 1.3969 or 4 points. The monthly range is located from 1.0870 to 1.4927. The 5 year from 1.24 broke above 1.2898 and traded to highs at 1.3969. Daily Treasury offered a green light from Monday and Tuesday’s reported 1.37. The 5 year held its range.

The 10 year traded Monday from 1.5310 to 1.6410 or 11 points then Tuesday 1.6130 to 1.6860 or 7 points. The 10 year at 1.53 was oversold from its monthly mid point at 1.63291 and bounced to trade just prior to its resistance point at 1.72110. The monthly range is located from 4564 to 1.8095. The Treasury reported the 10 year at 1.63 Monday and 1.66 Tuesday.

The 30 year traded 1.901 to 2.0450 or 14 points Monday then 2.009 to 2.102 or 9 points. Daily Treasury reported 2.01 Monday and 2.07 Tuesday. The monthly range is located from 1.7987 to the 1 year average at 2.0261 then 2.0581 and 2.3126.The 30 year was oversold from 1.90, broke above 1.9124, 1.9692 and 2.0261 resistance to trade from 2.0261 to 2.0581 – 2.3126.

USD/JPY vs Yields

While the 2 year yield ranges from 0.3376 to 0.8871, USD/JPY correlates to 0.3376 at +16% and +19% at 0.8871. The best correlations for the 2 year and USD/JPY are found at 0.32% and 34% at the 4 and 5 year monthly averages. The 2 year fails to explain USD/JPY as correlations impart performance as a question to distance to yield points Vs USD/JPY pip moves.

For interested, on my blog at btwomey.com dating to 2015 is years of yield, interest rates and currency price concepts for many currencies and nation’s yields and interest rates.

And viewed from every possible scenario from simple averages and regression to yield crossovers, FX Points. Yields factored forward, from yield curves to yield slopes.
Every possible figure and factor in FX is located on my blog dating to 2010 and 2011. The end result was the invention in 2015 to today’s interest rate model for day trades and deployed to trade every financial instrument on the planet.

Historically as written previously, USD/JPY drivers to yields are short term yields in the vicinity from 2 to 5 years while the 10 year never factored as Correlation drivers nor suited for trade entries.

USD/JPY correlates to the 5 year yield from the 1 year at 87% and 2 year at 64% then correlations drop like a rock. The 1 year is located at 0.8146 and 2 year at 0.6904.
The 10 year yield then loses correlations to USD/JPY as the 1 and 2 year correlate at 59% and 67% then correlations drop. Those yield levels are located at 1.1545 and 1.4045. Only 50% to yield moves are explained by USD/JPY.

Many yields and yield ranges from 1 to 5 years fail to explain USD/JPY direction and performance as USD/JPY is off kilter to yields by trading at erroneous levels. The moves are quick and short term evidenced by correlations at 1 and 2 year and not to the full set of averages from 1 to 5 years. The worst performer to correlation is the yield 5 year average for all yield maturities. The 5 year should be the best performer.

The 30 year correlates to USD/JPY at 54%.

USD/JPY overall trades overbought and began overbought at weekly starts for the past 3 weeks. USD/JPY is rising despite severe overbought. A lower USD/JPY to 110.00’s and 111.00’s would not only correlate to DXY more correctly but to yields. Until USD/JPY drops then the yield /USD/JPY relations will remain off kilter to correlations.

Treasury Yields

30 year Treasury yield is priced in 32nds and priced at $312.50 for each 32nd or $3,000 per point. One basis point on a 10 year bond is $1000.

A guide

From fraction to decimal,
1/32 = 0.0313,
3/64 = 0.0469,
1/16 = 0.0625,
5/64 = 0.0781.
At 63/64 = 0.9844 then comes 1.0 as a fully traded basis point.

From Fraction to percent,

1/32 = 3.125%
3/64 = 4.687%
1/16 = 6.25%
5/64 = 7.812
63/64 = 98.437%. Then 1.0 as a fully traded basis point.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD for December and January traded 111 pips from 1.1273 to 1.1384. The reversion to 1.1300’s and a neutral price is driven by 1.1387, 1.1435, 1.1480 and 1.1511. EUR/USD’s problem is overall price drivers are contained within middle monthly averages.

EUR/USD averages lack anything close to uniformity. EUR/USD drops were met by deeply oversold longer dated averages to force EUR higher to neutral 1.1300’s. If EUR/USD averages were orderly and aligned properly, EUR would’ve trended to lower targets at current 1.1057.

The positive aspect to EUR/USD is it trades below every average yet every average is rising ever so slowly and explains EUR/USD slow grind lower. A higher EUR meets a concentration of averages from 1.1387 to 1.1900’s and aligned less than 100 pips apart. EUR 1.1400’s, 1.1500’s and 1.1600’s form a solid steel wall.

The best targets currently are located at 1.1057 then bottoms at 1.0900’s and 1.0800’s. From 1.0900’s assumes DXY trades to its tops at 99.00’s. Also assumes DXY contains 300 pips to travel higher and matches 300 EUR pips to 1.0900’s from 1.1200’s.

EUR/USD’s target is benchmarked by seasonality. Within any given year, traditional EUR/USD downtrends begin in December/ January and ends May/June then begins EUR/USD’s 6 month uptrend.

EUR/USD’s December/ January drop is the result of the European Parliament’s funding of the annual budget beginning normally by December. A traditional lower EUR in January allows funding the budget at a lower cost. EUR has 6 months to achieve targets.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD’s situation is similar to EUR/USD as averages lack uniformity yet averages are positioned to allow GBP a valid trade range. GBP/USD trades 1.3357, 1.3443 and 1.3492. Above 1.3492 becomes 1.3492 to 1.3760. Overall lower range is located from 1.3492 to 1.3298 then a brick wall to averages exists at 1.3100’s.

A lower GBP/USD rises as longer dated averages at 1.3700’s and 1.3800’s trades oversold and forces GBP higher. Overall averages are rising.

Banks target GBP/USD by end 2022 at 1.2500’s. The target at 1.2500’s is pushing the envelope to far and assumes breaks at 1.3193, 1.3180 and 1.3120. A break at 1.3100’s targets bottoms at 1.2700’s and 1.2600’s. GBP/USD lows for the year coincide to UK February / March budgets. GBP/USD failure to break 1.3100’s targets 1.3400’s.

For the week, vital breaks for higher/ lower are located at 1.3492 and 1.3503.

Brian Twomey

Currency markets begin the week with DXY at 95.67 and a 128 pip drop from November’s high at 96.95 and just ahead of vital 97.16. October and November’s monthly averages were located from the 5 year at 95.25 to tops at 98.00’s and 99.00’s.

DXY begins January in a 413 pip range with the 5 year average at 95.06 to 99.19 tops. Next vitals above are located at 96.99, 97.77, 98.07, 98.48 and 98.54. The 5 year is protected by 95.60, 95.42 and 95.20 then many averages at 94.00’s beginning at 94.85 and 94.03. Averages at 94.00’s must break to consider targets at 92.00’s.

DXY’s 5 year average dropped 19 pips while EUR/USD’s 5 year rose 21 pips to current 1.1511 and a rising target now at 1.1056. Essential to the DXY V EUR/USD relationship particularly at most important levels is the structural lead / lag effect to currency prices due to specific ranges for each currency pair.

EUR/USD broke its 5 year first November 10 at 1.1490 then 5 days later on November 15, DXY broke above 95.25. EUR/USD achieved 1.1185 lows 14 days later on November 24 as averages began to rise while DXY achieved 96.91 highs a full month later on December 14 as averages began to drop.

USD/JPY Vs DXY

USD/JPY correlates to DXY at the 110.42 first monthly average at +84% then correlations severely drop to +20%’s- +40% from the 2 to 8 year monthly averages. USD/JPY is not only overbought but current levels are off kilter to DXY and JPY cross pairs. USD/JPY’s positive correlation exist to CAD/JPY at +64% and CHF/JPY at +90% and negative to EUR/JPY -51%, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

USD/JPY at 115.00’s sits comfortably between the 2 year yield at 0.734 from 0.3376 to 0.8871 and 10 year at 1.51 from 1.4564 to 1.8095.

Currency Market Big Picture
Currency markets this week are driven by the majors as EUR/USD, GBP, AUD and NZD/USD Vs USD/CAD and USD/CHF. Cross pairs contain tiny ranges and correlation problems to offer little to no assistance to big moves. Overall currency markets lack uniformity as highlighted by the mathematical certainty of correlations. Best trades this week are found in JPY cross pairs, GBP and AUD and the same situation as last week.

USD/JPY weekly Trade

Targets for the past 2 weeks achieved destinations however shorts not only failed but USD/JPY downside was severely limited. From monthly averages, USD/JPY contains every ability to trade to more overbought and tops at 116.22 and 116.42, particularly as EUR/USD trades just ahead of vital resistance and DXY at 95.00 lows.

USD/JPY ‘s overall position is truly horrible yet required is a downside move to re correlate to DXY.

Shorts this week are located at 115.45 and 115.53 to target 114.20 on a break at 114.79. Any price over 115.45 is free money to shorts. Overall, week 8 to weekly USD/JPY trades and +900 ish pips for 7 trades.

EUR/USD and Cross Pairs

EUR/USD’s longer dated averages remain deeply oversold and moving higher and targets are now located at 1.1420 and 1.1433. EUR/USD most vital breaks are located at 1.1446 and 1.1511 at the 5 year average. EUR/USD 1.1511 coincides to DXY at 95.06. The EUR/USD strategy moving forward is long drops and the same strategy that began when EUR/USD traded to 1.1100 lows.

GBP/USD

Vital levels this week are found at 1.3166, 1.3359, 1.3443 and 1.3496. Next above is located at 1.3552. GBP/JPY is not only overbought but multi year tops are here at 157.00’s. GBP/NZD is the preferred trade Vs EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD Vs GBP/AUD.

AUD/USD

This week lineup is located at 0.7260, 0.7273 and 0.7304. AUD/JPY begins the week deeply overbought and oversold AUD/CAD.

NZD/USD

Most vital this week for NZD is found at 0.6841, 0.6854 and 0.6891. NZD/JPY begins the week overbought and deeply oversold NZD/CAD.

Overall, a fairly average currency market week.

Brian Twomey