USD/JPY weekly trade as posted Sunday: short 115.82 and 115.95 to target 114.91. Long 114.91 to target 115.30.

Result today 115.77 to 114.85. +92 pips. Week 14 began as 1738 pips. Total is now +1830.

Next legs. Short below 114.39 to target 113.63. Long 113.63 to target 114.14
Or long 114.77 and 114.64 to target 115.34.

Time for caution as USD/JPY sits oversold and EUR/USD also sits massive oversold.

USD/RUB targets 83.69. Before the Ukraine invasion, USD/RUB and all RUB cross pairs were massive overbought from the 5 day to 15 year averages.

GBP/RUB targets 112.82.
EUR/RUB targets 94.33.
AUD/RUB targets 60.31.

USH Ukraine Currency as the HRYVNIA

USD/UAH today range 29.05 to 29.91. February Month Range 27.30 – 29.16
UAH/RUB today 2.7596 to 3.7594.

Brian Twomey

Currency markets begin the week oversold to EUR/USD and GBP/USD while overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD. EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF begin the week oversold while overbought to AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF and NZD/CHF.

EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD begin the week oversold while overbought to AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD.

GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD begin the week oversold while oversold EUR/AUD and neutral to oversold GBP/AUD.

USD/CHF and USD/JPY begin the week overbought while oversold to USD/CAD. CHF/JPY begins the week overbought and matches USD/JPY.

Oversold EUR/USD and GBP/USD contend with overbought EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY while overbought AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY hold compliance to overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

Overbought CAD/JPY matches to oversold USD/CAD. Overbought CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY comply to oversold USD/CAD.

NZD/CHF closed at 0.6214 and the vital average is located at 0.6214. A price close on an average nullifies the statistics to the average which means NZD/CHF begins the week at perfect neutral. This is a 1 in 1 million occurrence and may never be seen again.

EUR/GBP traded from 0.8200 to 0.8600’s for the past 6 months while EUR/USD held an 1.1100 to 1.1400 range or 300 pips for the past 3 months. USD/CHF traded 300 pips from 0.9300’s to 0.9000 for the past 8 months.

USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY traded 400 pips for the past 3 months and 300 pips for NZD/USD and 400 pips for NZD/JPY. GBP/JPY traded 900 pips within the past 3 months and a breakout while GBP/JPY held 148.00 to 158 for the past year.

AUD/JPY, EUR/CAD, GBP/CHF and EUR/JPY traded a 600 pip range for the past 3 months. EUR/AUD traded 700 pips in 3 months and 900 pips in 6 months. GBP/AUD and CAD/JPY 8 and 500 pip ranges in 3 months and 700 for GBP/CAD.

GBP/NZD traded 1100 pips in 3 months and 800 pips for EUR/NZD.

SPX 500 traded 700 points in 3 months, 500 points in the prior 3 months. On a 3 month basis, SPX trades 4 to 500 point ranges since last November. DXY matches SPX and traded 300 pips for the past 3 months, 500 pips for the prior 3 months and 400 for the next 3 months.

Gold traded barely 300 points in 3 months, 200 points in the prior 3 months. For the past year, God runs 2 and 300 points per 3 months.

WTI Oil traded 38 points in the past 3 months, 20 points in the prior 3 months then 13 points in the next prior 3 months. For the past year, WTI traded 48 points or 4 points per month.

Currency prices are fairly consistent to trade 300 and 600 point ranges since 2016 market changes. EUR/USD for example from October 2012 to Dec traded 800 pips, 1100 pips in each of the prior 3 months and 800 for the first quarter of 2012. Markets in 2012 were consistent to trade above levels as normal.

EUR/USD 3 month ranges in 2015 doubled from 2012 as the ECB fully embarked on negative interest rates and EUR broke its 10 year average at 1.3200’s.

The current period of trade is dead yet normal and consistent but miles below historic range movements.

The Week

EUR/USD leads the way this week to target 1.1369 and 1.1387. The rising 5 year average at 1.1533 targets 1.1105. Last week, EUR/USD traded to exactly 1.1105. The line at 1.1533 is rising which means 1.1105 will rise.

Overbought NZD/USD and AUD/USD trade near 5 year averages at 0.7292 and 0.6827.

JPY cross pairs contain about 100 pip more downside.

GBP/USD vital points for the week are located at 1.3188, 1.3285, 1.3383, 1.3449, 1.3543 and 1.3601. GBP/USD held a consistent and known range over many months.

GBP/NZD will lead EUR/NZD higher this week. EUR/AUD will lead GBP/AUD higher. EUR/AUD is oversold by about 200 pips.

USD/CAD 1.2835 and 1.2859 as big breaks and no change since last week.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Weekly trade last week as posted Sunday: Short 115.57 and 115.64 to target 114.76. Or Short below 114.40 to target 113.67. USD/JPY lifted from 114.40 and traded to 115.68 then to 115.14.

Allow credit for 115.57 and 115.64 to achieve its destination. To traders short at 115.64 profit was 50 pips. Day trade profits were extra pips and won’t count to weekly trade totals.

For last week as 13, count is zero pips but week 14 begins at +1738 pips.

USD/JPY short 115.82 and 115.95 to target 114.91. Long 114.91 to target 115.30.

Brian Twomey

The weekly trade as posted Sunday: Short 115.57 and 115.64 to target 114.76. Long 114.76 to target 115.37. Or Short below 114.40 to target 113.67.
Results: highs 115.68, lows 115.14.

USD/JPY jumped from 114.40 to 115.07 or 67 pips for yesterday’s day trade. Note from yesterday’s post to no confidence to 115.57 or 115.64 and wrote the trade off as zero for no credit and no profit pips.

But also yesterday was Thursday and weekly trades run to Friday. Friday is the day to declare victory, loss and trade totals. We’ve seen USD/JPY 2 weeks? ago on a late week move and achieve target and this week was no different.

What allowed USD/JPY to fly higher was successive drops to 114.40, 114.37 and 114.32. A break on any of these lines then weekly 115.57 and 115.64 was impossible. Deeply oversold USD/JPY at yesterday’s 114.32 allowed a free trade long provided 114.32 held. And yet again, markets take us to the brink.

From the day trade perspective, 114.20 was offered so USD/JPY supports were located at 114.32 and 114.20. Both points were deeply oversold and at 2:00 am as the start to day trades.

What I didn’t like was USD/JPY traded lower all week. Note the 2nd leg long from 114.76 target to 115.37. Both prices were taken out of market contention when USD/JPY broke lower from 114.76. Once a price is taken out, its gone and forgotten and no longer is included.

USD/JPY lower target at 114.76 achieved before 115.57 and 115.64. Despite uneven prices, hold true to targets.

If 114.40 broke lower, we were covered for 49 profit pips to at least 113.91 day trade lows.

Most interested to yesterday and Russia was how the currency price would hold and trade. USD/JPY was normal and traded so far 128 weekly pips vs yesterday’s 83.

EUR/USD from 1:30 am to 9 am traded 1.1261 to 1.1144 or 117 pips and normal day trade prices. From 9 am to 10 am traded 1.1108 to 1.1156 or 48 pips. Normal. From 10 to 11 traded 1.1141 to 1.1177 or normal 36 pips. From 11 am to 12.00 traded 1.1105 to 1.1177 or 72 pips.

See the 10 am Gold Fix or Option expiries hold any trade value or profits. No profits exists and 36 pips was an unusually big day for 10 am hour trading.

For the most part markets to include currencies and stock markets were confined to 300 ish pip and point ranges. EUR/USD traded 283 weekly pips or 47 pips per day and 3.93 pips per hour. Rare for 283 but not unusual.

To the weekly trade. I ask for credit for 115.57 and 115.64 targets and allow the short to continue to the 114.76 target. Deep caution to 114.76 to 115.37.

Lows so far achieved 115.14 or 50 ish pips.

USD/JPY 4 numbers for today’s day trade: 114.64, 114.93, 115.51 and 115.79. The close today is expected right at 114.91.

EUR/USD 4 numbers: 1.1161, 1.1189, 1.1246 and 1.1274.

Maybe next week, we’ll trade USD/JPY weekly and day trades together and include all trade profits for weekly totals.

Brian Twomey Contact [email protected]

USD/JPY ‘s weekly trade: Short 115.57 and 115.64 to target 114.76. Highs achieved 115.23, and lows 114.40. Entry was missed by 34 pips and lows traded 36 pips lower.

Target achieved however its an imperative to compensate for bottoms and tops to ensure balance to the price which maintains balance at all times to any trade week.

Best option is to declare this week’s trade into week 13 as zero pips as entry was missed. Missed was 80 ish pips. In actuality, nothing was missed on an 83 pip range week. If traders caught the day trade at the 115.03 target then pips were banked.

Current 2 days remain to day trades to recoup the missed 83 pips. No problem.

Yesterday’s USD/JPY day trade ranged from 114.95 to 115.19 or 24 pips. Here’s yesterday’s day trade 114.45, 114.74, 115.32, 115.61. USD/JPY traded neutral to neutral as the 4 numbers implied. For Brian Twomey and our traders, profit was banked.

After 18 years and the study and research of the currency price, we are not in it to ever lose nor to ever not profit. And bank on this statement as 10 years of trades and writings at fxstreet proves the point.

Nothing changed since 2012 entries and targets except adjustments to strategies as the speed of the currency price radically changed. As changes occurred, strategies adjusted. If changes happen in the future as expected, we’ll adjust again.

USD/JPY today’s 4 numbers: 113.91, 114.20, 114.78 and 115.07.
EUR/USD 4 numbers: 1.1192, 1.1220, 1.1277 and 1.1306.

GBP/JPY target at 153.00’s written Sunday achieved lows at 154.16 from 156.00’s, NZD/USD for RBNZ dead stopped at 0.6809 and 2 pips from 0.6811 and 0.6828. GBP/USD achieved lows at 1.3462 and just ahead of vital 1.3446. Above 2 levels at 1.3599 and 1.3676 offered while GBP/USD traded to weekly highs at 1.3636.

Next week begins week 14 and USD/JPY banked +1738 pips or 150 ish pips per week to exclude day trades.

USD/JPY last week big break was located at 114.40 and today 114.32 and a dropping line. The close price Friday is expected at 114.70. USD/JPY is inching closer to overall target at 113.39 and 112.74.

Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY sit massively oversold. EUR/USD will lead the way much higher next week to target upper 1.1300;s.

GBP/USD 1.3446 and 1.3384 is expected to hold next week as oversold GBP/USD travels higher along with GBP/JPY. GBP/NZD finally achieved targets at 2.000;s from 1.20400 highs. GBP/NZD traded 500 pips short over the last 2 weeks.

Oversold to EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. The overall driver pair is AUD/GBP as GBP/AUD is the better trade to EUR/AUD. AUD/EUR contains range problems and explains why AUD/USD traded 120 pips this week.

NZD/USD and oversold looks good for longs next week to target 0.6745 then the break at 0.6769. NZD cross pairs are compliant to oversold except NZD/CAD as the outlier.

CAD/CHF traded almost 90 pips this week, 139 for CAD/JPY and 133 pips for USD/CAD. The problem pair in the mix is USD/CAD. USD/CAD will remain a problem pair next week.
Overall to next week is expected a good range trade week.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and USD/JPY ran Correlations yesterday at -93% and today runs the same -93%. Yet for the past 3 weeks or so both EUR/USD and USD/JPY traded perfectly in the same direction. Both USD/JPY and EUR/USD yesterday traded long for a good distance.

Yesterday’s separation to EUR/USD and USD/JPY ran 84 pips and today both expanded the separation to about 89 to 92 pips. What’s the problem with Correlations is at a certain point the Correlation is affected by distance as Correlations is a measure mathematically to range and distance by moving averages.

Yesterday’s EUR/USD and USD/JPY at 1.1300’s and USD/JPY 114.00’s were both oversold and married at the hip by exchange rates. Both lacked enough degree of separation for the Correlation to become affected. This will change as USD/JPY and EUR/USD exchange rates grow distance between each other.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD contain tendencies to throw curve balls as Correlations may run +90% but each take separate turns to longs and shorts. EUR/USD traded higher yesterday while GBP/USD traveled short. Today we should see GBP/USD higher and EUR/USD short.

Today’s USD/JPY’s 20, 50 and 100 day averages are located at 115.20, 115.02 and 114.54. No change since yesterday. No change since yesterday to EUR/USD’s 50 and 100 day averages at 1.1337 and 1.1321. The difference is today’s EUR/USD price joined its proper place within the averages.

Day trades were never designed for easy trades and profits. Before 2014 and 2015 when the ECB ran the day trade program, traders had 1 shot and 1 trade to profit and this required speed and FX knowledge as well as an understanding to what the currency price was doing.

Since 2015 and 2016, day trades massively changed as the central banks slowed the price speed. Now we have multiple longs and shorts and an expanded time distance to complete multiple trades. Yet ask 5 traders where to go long or short and 10 different answers materialize.

The day trade, trading and currency price is an exact mathematical science rather than a crap shoot to a weird art form which means only 1 answer is correct. Yet the 1 answer doesn’t come with mathematical certainty. Yesterday’s day trades ran perfect but no guarantees to today price moves.

Day trades over may weeks trade from a neutral price then trade to target.
Yesterday EUR/USD traded long form 1.1289 but our exact mathematical point was 1.1277. The target was 1.1334 yet 1.1334 broke higher to offer extra pips to the maximum trade to 1.1366.

A break of 1.1334 was required to target higher at 1.1366. Yet EUR/USD had an equal chance to trade short from 1.1334. Rarely does a day trade travel to its maximum target level.

EUR/USD from 1.1366 traded to exactly 1.1334.

USD/JPY traded higher from 114.71 while we were looking for a bit lower at 114.54. Yesterday’s target at 115.03 traded to 115.23 for an extra 20 pips. But 115.03 was well within the confines from 115.03 to 115.32. EUR/USD traded to its maximum while USD/USD failed at maximum.

As day trades are used for extra pips to accumulate while waiting for weekly trades, the best option is never marry day trades. Best strategy is profit and exit especially when 8 currency pairs are traded twice daily. Many, many opportunities are available throughout the week for the easy money trades.

NZD/USD at last night’s RBNZ is one example as NZD/USD lifted from 0.6736 and the last point available for day trades was 0.6726 and 0.6731. NZD/USD contained 1 trade and 1 direction, long.

USD/JPY 4 numbers for today’s longs and short are located at 114.45, 114.74, 115.32, 115.61.

EUR/USD 4 numbers for today are located at 1.1275, 1.1304, 1.1362, 1.1391.
Long bottoms and short tops to target each of 4 levels.

Brian Twomey

Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY correlate at negative 93%. EUR/USD and USD/JPY prices separate by a range of 84 pips. USD/JPY is deeply oversold from 114.37 and a 3 pips drop in 2 trade day. USD/JPY traded 56total pips or 44 pips lower and 12 pips higher.

EUR/USD traded 1.1388 to 1.1288 or 100 pips or 70 pips higher and 30 pips lower. EUR/USD achieved target as written Sunday at 1.1388.

USD/JPY 100 day average is located at 114.53 and trades between the 50 and 100 day from 114.53 to 115.02. While EUR/USD’s price is to low to record even the 5 day average. EUR/USD highest price is found at the 100 day average at 1.1321 and 50 day at 1.1337.

USD/JPY at current 114.72 is in a dangerous position. Longs at current price could find losses if 114.37 breaks lower. Longs however may find terrific profits from 114.72 to target at 115.57. USD/JPY trades in an 84 pips range without a significant level in between. Remaining levels are minor and fairly insignificant.

EUR/USD is deeply oversold and DXY at 96.25 is far to high in relation to 97.00 and 98.00 multi year tops.

USD/JPY longs for today are located at 114.45, 114.50 and 114.57 and targets 115.03.

For USD/JPY, 4 numbers and only 4 numbers drive prices until 9:00 am or 3:00 pm Europe: 114.16, 114.45, 115.03 and 115.32. Today, 114.37 may or may not hold.

EUR/USD 4 numbers drive EUR/USD: 1.1249, 1.1277, 1.1334 and 1.1363.

EUR/USD 1.1249 = USD/JPY 115.32. EUR/USD 1.1277 = USD/JPY 115.03. EUR/USD 1.1334 = USD/JPY 114.45. EUR/USD 1.1363 = USD/JPY 1.1416.

EUR/USD shorts are located at 1.1334 and 1.1363 to target 1.1313 then 1.1277.

EUR/USD longs are located at 1.1249 and 1.1277 to target 1.1334.

Overall, 114.37 is expected to hold this week which means we could target USD/JPY as a long only strategy to achieve 115.57 then reverse to shorts rather than allow 80 pips to fly by without profits.

Why the EUR/USD match to USD/JPY is due to each pair as perfect opposites. The difference is USD/JPY’s decimal point was moved.

As an aside issue. Time springs forward March 13 by 1 hour. This means day trades change for the next 6 months to 2:30 am to 10:00 am and nightly trades from 9:30 pm to 2:30 am. Day trades run as usual 12 1/2 hours from a total of 24.

Brian Twomey

Approximately 80% or 400 million barrels of Ukraine’s proven oil reserves and 90% of Natural Gas production is located in Dnieper – Donetsk. This region is also known as Donbass and is located north along the Ukraine, Russia and Belarus border. The two vital gas fields are located inside Ukraine at Krestiche and Shebelymka. Russian Troops are housed along the Ukraine / Russia, Belarus border.

The North Carpathian basin, located along the Ukraine and Polish border is responsible for 13% of Ukraine’s proven oil reserves and 6% production.

The Azov facility located in South Ukraine in Crimea is bound by 6% of proven reserves and 5% of total oil and gas production. Dashava is the major gas field and located safely inside Ukraine.

Ukraine is the largest natural gas transit system in the world, particularly to Europe and earns roughly $1.2 billion per year from transit fees at $2.66 per 1000 cubic meters and per 100 kilometers or 62 miles based on the Oxford Institute for Energy studies.

Ukraine contains 28,000 miles of pipelines and 13 underground gas storage facilities to house 1.1 TCF or 1.1 trillion cubic feet. As of 2021, Ukraine owns 3 quadrillion cubic feet of proved Natural gas reserves and consumes 1.0 trillion cubic reserves per year and down 50% since 2010.

Russia transports approximately 2.9 to 3.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year to a large assortment of European nations to include Austria, Bosnia, Greece, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Moldova and the Czech Republic.

Gazprom reduced fees to Ukraine by 65% in 2007, 50% in 2004 and delivers natural gas to France, Germany and Belgium through the Nordstream 1 pipeline in the Baltic Sea.

Nordstream 1 is an operational pipeline since 2011 and runs from Griefswald Germany across the Baltic Sea to supply Natural Gas to Sweden Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and Finland. Gazprom reports 55 billion cubic meters per year of natural gas is delivered or 38.2 petajoules factored as 1.06 X 10 to 10th power per Killowat hour.

Nordstream 2, a 2018 construction project, is an extension pipeline to Nordstream 1 to deliver Natural Gas to Germany. Gazprom proposes to replace Nordstream 2 and Turkstream so not to run through Ukraine. Turkstream is a pipeline to supply natural gas to Turkey and southern European nations. The pipeline eliminates 760 miles or 1224 kilometers in fees to Ukraine.

Europe imports 2/3 of its crude oil to meet current energy needs and 27% natural gas. Russia as the EU’s largest supplier imported 27% crude oil and 41 % of natural gas. Europe imports based on 2021 figures, 23 billion per month in energy products Crude oil accounts for 69% in total energy imports.

Europe’s relationship with Russia and Gazprom dates to easily the early 2000’s and the 2004 proposal to construct Nordstream 1. Yet the overall relationships from nation to nation is consummated by agreement and contracts through private and state owned companies inside the various nations. East and west Germany for example received Natural Gas from Verbundnetz Gas and Ruhrgas since 1973.

Gazprom delivers crude and natural gas to 30 nations and more nations are on the way as pipelines are in construction phases. A proposed pipeline will deliver natural gas to China. The Yamal pipeline to Poland is complete. Vietnam is in the planning and development stages since 2015. Bolivia is complete since 2007. The Asian markets are wide open and set for Gazprom’s next advance.

Despite Ukraine’s $150 billion in GDP in 2019 and current world bank estimates at $137 billion, the 2014 Russian takeover of Crimea forced a reduction to oil and Natural Gas output at the Azov facility. Ukraine’s purchases from Russia accounted for the shortfall of 244,000 necessary daily barrels Ukraine requires.

The protagonists to the Ukraine story are Europe, Putin and Gazprom, Ukraine and thousands of miles of pipelines. Then the question why 150,000 Russian soldiers on Ukraine’s border and what is Putin’s game plan.

Ukraine’s only guilt was charge exorbitant transit fees yet not a reason for a Russian invasion. An invasion risks valuable pipeline breaks and cost to Ukraine, Poland to the Yamal pipeline and on assumption, Gazprom and Putin.

An invasion and pipeline break would force retaliation to Nordstream and other valuable pipelines. Destroy Nordstream 1 automatically eliminates Nordstream 2 as Nordstream 2 is developing alongside Nordstream 1.

Putin envisions to reconstitute the old Soviet Union is an erroneous statement as the old Soviet Union encompassed 15 Republics and Georgia was the only Republic Putin invaded.

Ukraine’s cooperation with NATO began in 1991 and intensified over the years. Essentially, Ukraine is a NATO member with full NATO backing yet only lacks a formal vote. Ukraine’s President Zelensky signed a 2020 agreement to allow future Ukraine membership.

Crimea lacks any argument to a Russian invasion as Russia owned Crimea since the Russian Turkish war in 1783. Ukraine and Russia operated on formal agreements to Crimea such as joint military usage of the military base at Sevastopol. Both Ukraine and Russia contain multiple access points to the Black Sea.

A Russian invasion and risks to pipeline breaks represents an economic catastrophe to all Europe, Sweden, Belarus and to former Soviet republics of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

The economic power amassed by Putin and Gazprom over the past decade is enormous. More than economic power is the control Putin contains over many, many nations. Is Putin willing to risk loss to this power by invasion. I say not as a deeper perspective is involved to a risk so great to world prosperity.

Currency markets are heading for a good trade week. EUR/USD begins the week oversold and targets 1.1383 and 1.1394. The 5 year average and a rising weekly line is located at 1.1530 and targets 1.1098. A brick wall for EUR/USD exists at 1.1527, 1.1530 1.1540. Yet the lines are rising to offer a continuous long only strategy.

While the Fed proposes many raises to infinity, Fed Fund averages from 1 month to 30 year monthly averages range from 0.08 to 2.4605 highs, a spread of 2.3805. The long term rate or the natural/ neutral rate of interest from 1800’s Economist Knut Wicksell is located at 1.3905. Inflation at the 2% target factors the natural rate at 1.4405. Averages to 30 years are fairly neutral as not overbought nor oversold.

The question to many raises are central banks prepared to match Fed raises, will the Fed send exchange rates vs each central bank to extreme deviations Vs each other.

Its been 90 years since the Currency Wars of the 1930’s. Then it was an economic and export war to undervalue by competitive devaluations the currency price vs nation counterparts to gain export and economic advantage. GBP as the leading currency was the target exchange rate and barely survived most prominently by France and the French Franc.

See The Gold War: The Story of the World’s Monetary Crisis by Ian Davidson and Gordon Weil, 1970. Not only a fascinating read but an imperative lesson in the modern day to maintain interest rates in sync from central bank to central bank in order to maintain smooth and functioning markets otherwise markets risk extreme volatility and the beginnings of another currency war. After 90 years, markets are due.

No changes to GBP/USD as the following levels hold: 1.3384, 1.3446, 1.3599, 1.3676 and 1.3753. Last week’s GBP/USD lifted from 1.3585. GBP/USD’s problem higher is a severe overbought GBP/JPY and targets lower prices at 153.00.

The same story to AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. GBP/JPY is the JPY leader and overbought enough to drive not only JPY cross pairs lower but GBP/USD.

AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY sit fairly neutral to overbought. Nothing exciting to movements to AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY or EUR/JPY although this week we stand clear and cautious to AUD/JPY.

NZD/USD massive resistance exists at 0.6811, 0.6828 and 0.6859. NZD/USD’s 5 year average is located at 0.6828 and a massive break. If NZD/USD broke above the 5 year average and sustained then all currencies will break 5 year averages.

NZD/USD as the bottom most exchange rate and signal currency influences all currencies for direction.

USD/CAD no changes from last week. Levels for the week hold at 1.2644, 1.2652 Vs 1.2832. CAD/CHF is in much better position to move and assist USD/CAD movements.

AUD/CHF is the leader to CAD/CHF and NZD/CHF and GBP/CHF leads EUR/CHF.

EUR/NZD stands this week dead last in the 19 currency pair trade rankings to favor instead GBP/NZD. GBP/NZD maintains a short only strategy. Expected is GBP/NZD higher this week as NZD/USD trades near its 5 year average. GBP/NZD targets low 2.0200 to upper 1.0100’s.

USD/JPY.

Week 13 begins at 1738 pips profit from weekly trades as the 2nd leg trade last week completed from 114.84 to 115.25 for 41 pips and 102 pips from the first leg. Total 143 pips on a 107 pip range and 36 extra pips.

USD/JPY medium term targets are located at 113.39 and 112.34 and hold short only trade strategies.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Short 115.57 and 115.64 to target 114.76. Long 114.76 to target 115.37. Or Short below 114.40 to target 113.67. Long 113.67 to target 114.03. USD/JPY 114.40 is expected to hold this week yet the trade is offered just in case.

Brian Twomey

The 2nd leg to USD/JPY’s weekly trade from 114.84 to 115.25 achieved target. Since yesterday, USD/JPY traded 114.78 to 115.28. Traders earned 3 extra pips. USD/JPY’s weekly range traded 107 pips.

The first trade from 115.86 to 114.84, + 102 pips. The 2nd leg 114.84 to 115.25, +41 pips. Total 143 pips on a 107 pip range. We profit by an extra 36 pips, traded perfectly and beat the weekly range.

Week 12 began at 1595 pips profit and add 143 then heading into week 13, the total pips factors as 1738 pips. Next target 2000 then 2500 and 5000.

On the assumption ranges hold today without significant MA breaks then listed are weekly ranges and per hour averages. If per hour averages were factored up to today only then the average is slightly higher.

EUR/USD for example. The weekly range traded 115 pips or 1.59 pips per hour. Factored to today then the average rises to 1.91. No major difference overall.

Both NZD/USD and SPX 500 traded 125 point ranges or 1.73 pips per hour. NZD/USD was perfect to maintain perfect pace to SPX.

AUD/USD 131 pip range vs 1.81 hourly pip average. AUD/JPY 178 pip range and 2.47 hourly pip average.

NZD/USD 125 pips range vs 1.73 hourly pip average. NZD/JPY 153 pip range vs 2.12 hourly pip average.

EUR/USD 115. pip range vs 1.59 hourly pip average. EUR/JPY 182 pip range vs 2.52 hourly pip average.

USD/CAD 119 pip range vs 1.65 hourly pip average. CAD/JPY 139 pip range vs 1.93 hourly pip average.

GBP/USD 156 pip range vs 2.16 hourly pip average. GBP/JPY 195 pip range vs 2.70 hourly pip average.

USD/JPY 107 pip range vs 1.48 hourly pip average. DXY 76 pip range Vs 1.05 hourly pip average.

GBP/AUD 224 pip range Vs 3.11 pip average. EUR/AUD 225 pip range vs 3.12 hourly pip average.

GBP/NZD 226 pip range vs 3.13 hourly pip average. EUR/NZD 238 pip range vs 3.30 hourly pip average.

GOLD 59 pip range vs 1.21 hourly pip average or 11 pips per day. Gold traded approximately 1/2 range to anchor currencies. USD/CAD for example at 119 pips factors to 1/2 at 59 pips to match perfectly to Gold.

Gold can’t ever trade more than anchor currencies as this wasn’t the intended system set up since 1972. Currencies were the replacement to Gold with the intention for currencies to trade wider ranges. Cross pairs were designed to trade ranges above anchor currencies. Its almost impossible for cross pairs to trade ranges less than anchor currencies.

Currencies were priced higher than Gold way back in the 1700 and 1800’s and the exchange rate system was designed as Gold and Silver currencies. The United States and Europe with 1.0 currencies are Gold currencies and 0 point backed by Silver particularly Asia, South and Central America.

Silver 0.92 pips range vs 0.01 hourly pip average. JPY/USD 0.000449 range vs 0.0000062 hourly pip average.

All parameters to a weekly and daily price is well known Sunday and on the day of daily trades. Ukraine for example is known to a Russian invasion or no invasion and ir doesn’t matter to price if Russia invades Ukraine or goes home.

USD/JPY after 12 weekly trades, nothing to outside events mattered to price. Nothing outside the price will matter next week.

Brian Twomey

The weekly trade as posted Sunday: Short 115.83 and 115.91 to target 114.82. Long 114.82 to target 115.25.

Tuesday highs achieved 115.86 and today’s lows traded to 115.10. The trade runs +76 pips and 28 pips to target. Next hurdles below are located at 115.06 and 114.91.

Friday’s close price is expected from 115.32 to 115.49. USD/JPY for next week’s trade then becomes oversold. USD/JPY’s big break to target lower prices is located at 114.41 and a rising line. A rising MA line to price drops is a warning to an impending break to target 113.81 easily.

For next week’s trade, we’re looking at shorts in the vicinity of 116.08. The overall driver price to USD/JPY is a deeply overbought 5 year average at 109. 66. USD/JPY in the 116.00’s begins to hit the Richter scale extremes to overbought. The target to the 5 year average is located at 112.00’s.

USD/JPY overall contains a short only strategy as demonstrated over the past 12 weeks. The week began at + 1595 pips banked. This week’s trade results will place profits far above 1600’s and on the way to 2000.

Wal Mart WMT Daily Trade.

Individual stocks trade 1 and 3 points per day over 7 hours of trade. Skillful precision is required to day trade individual stocks. The same principle holds to trade interest rates as rates trade in tiny ranges over 7 hour periods.

A normal trade is enter and exit = profits. As demonstrated over the past week, vital levels to day trades were added to allow multiple longs and shorts per individual stock and stock index to enable multiple profits. The same principles were demonstrated over many years to day trade currencies.

Is the driver to price movements the overall stock index or the individual stock is answered statistically by the index and individual stock contains an equal chance to rise, fall or trade to tiny ranges. The difference between an individual stock and the index is zero. The difference between individual stocks is zero. The answer is found inside the distributions.

WMT contains a P/E ratio of 47 and SPX trades at a 27 P/E. WMT’s P/E ratio automatically signals a short only trade strategy as 47 should trade to at least 1/2 at 23 easily.

For the past 2 months, WMT traded a P/E ratio from 50 to 47 and 5 years from 60 to 15 in 2017. WMT to 23 will take quite some time. The driver overall is earnings.

Earnings or the E of P/E is scheduled for release today before the market opens. Estimates range from 1.49 , 1.50 and 1.51. P/E is offered as a fraction to signify Price divide by Earnings equates to a correct WMT price.

WMY Day Trade

Above 134.88, 134.61, 134.33, 134.05, 133.77 and 133.49.
Below 132.16, 132.44, 132.71, 132.98, 133.25 and 132.97.

Brian Twomey

The difference between a day trade to an individual stock or indice and a currency price is zero. Simple math yet what simple math reveals daily is both the currency, index and stock price both contain an equal chance to trade higher or lower. Simply, the currency, stock price and index begins at neutral. An Index or indice is defined as SPX, DAX, NASDAQ, Nikkei.

The concept to neutral is universal to any currency, stock index and individual stock on any world exchange. The currency price however is in control of central banks and interest rates while the stock and index is in control of interest rates and by the market’s daily numbers. The focus is the price and the price only. Because the index number such as SPX 500 is larger than a stock price, the speculation is the index is the driver to the stock price.

More numbers are involved in a currency day trade because its the smaller number to a stock or index price. The similarity to trading is multiple longs and shorts are offered for every stock, index and currency within the specified time to day trade. To know each trade in advance also affords the concept to never watch a chart, graph or use stops.

Multiple longs and shorts applies universally as a top or bottom break offers free money and extra pips and points to longs and shorts.

Results

The trade. NADAQ 14049.52. to 13532.78. Actual 13926.39 to 13667.15. +259 points.
The trade. SPX 500 4481.88 to 4356.43. Levels: 4480.85, 4464.22, 4401.11, 4396.54, 4391.52, 4386.51, 4376.48, 4366.45 and 4356.43. Actual 4427.45 to 4366.89 or 60 points.

Price path 4423.26 to 4386.38 and +36 Points then 4386.38 to 4426.43.

The trade. WMT. 136.83 to 133.82. Actual 135.99 to 132.72.

Price path. 135.99 to 132.83. + 3 points . 132.83 to 134.48 or + 1.65. Break 133.82 and bonus points. 134.48 to 132.73. And 132.73 to 134.20 and +1.47.

The trade. AMC 19.48 to 18.14. Actual 19.28 to 17.75.

Price path 19.28 to 18.29 +0.99 points. Then 17.75 to 18.13 + 0.38.

AMC failed to perform for the past 2 days nor will AMC trade well today.

DAY Trades: NASDAQ, SPX, WMT and AMC

SPX 4364.46 to 4432.79. Levels above: 4432.79, 4425.01, 4417.23, 4409.45. Below 4364.46, 4370.55, 4379.66,4387.62 4395.58,

WMT. Levels above 135.79, 135.59, 134.77, 134.36, 134.16. Below 132.11, 132.31, 132.79, 133.28, 133.61.

AMC Levels above: 18.57, 18.15, 17.94, 17.66. Below 17.54, 17.33, 16.92, 16.70, 16.51.

Today’s SPX, NASDAQ, WMT and AMC will trade 1/2 yesterday’s ranges which means not much going on today.

Brian Twomey

Currency markets begin the week in dead neutral for a vast majority of 28 currency pairs and not much difference to movements from last week. The 2 week cycle to currency prices is alive and well and this 2 week cycle is derived by central banks since year 2000 and seen from 5, 10, 20 and 50 day averages.

Prior to year 2000, central banks met as they desired or as a need existed. In year 2000, central banks agreed to meet every 35 days or every 6 weeks. The 35 days would come to be known as Maintenance periods or the inter period between meetings.

Monthly averages are viewed as 30 days and close to alignment to 6 trade days per week X 6 weeks or 36 trade days. The numbers 5, 6, 30, 35 and 36 would become dominant to moving averages and assist to create and solidify the 2 week cycle.

EUR/USD 50 day moving average is not actually 50 days but 36 days and is located today at 1.1331.

Since year 2000 and Maintenance periods, central banks offered uniformity to the traded price. The 2 week cycle or every other week is seen as 1, 3 and 5 weeks and 2, 4 and 6.

The EUR/USD in 6 weeks from the December 17 meeting traded weekly from December 12 to 17 and onward as: 197 pips, 187 pips, 82, 92, 197, 131 and 223.

Since the Feb 3 meeting and last week, EUR/USD traded 162 pips and expected to trade this week right around 100 pips.

EUR/USD averages from 5 to 50 days and factored perfectly are located this week at 1.1415, 1.1378, 1.1314, and 1.1331.

GBP/USD 5 to 50 days are found from 1.3547, 1.3546, 1.3505 and 1.3532. GBP/USD closed at 1.3547 directly on the 5 day average.

The 2 week cycle is wholly dependent on movements from a break to a significant average or the week trades to dead ranges.

USD/JPY Last Weekly Trade

Short 115.56 and 115.63 to target 114.53
Result: 116.33 highs or off 70 pips to entry. No problem.
For the 3rd time in 11 weekly trades, required to add 1 lot and trade to target on a free money market given blessing.

Result 116.33 highs, Lows 115.01
2 lots traded short from 116.33 and 115.63.
From 115.63 to 115.01 +62 pips. Then 116.33 to 115.01 +132 pips for a total of 194 pips.

The original trade offered 110 pips then the reversal. By trade at 116.33, an extra 84 pips was profit.

From 1401 and +194 pips, the new weekly total heading into week 12 is +1595.
USD/CAD and USD/CHF begin the week overbought and neutral to overbought for USD/JPY. USD/CHF from 0.9246 and DXY 96.04 trades a spread at 358 pips.

As written, The spread will run 300 pips long into the future as USD/CHF is a great barometer to DXY. Locked in is 58 pips.

USD/CAD no changes since last week as USD/CAD trades from vital levels at 1.2829 to 12661. CAD/CHF for the 2nd week running remains a problem to USD/CAD movements.

EUR/USD last week broke below 1.1385 and 1.1384 to trade 1.1344 lows. The 5 year average at current 1.1527 and rising by the week targets 1.1092. No trust to the banks 1.0800 target. Current EUR/USD 6 month seasonal downtrend ends in May therefore EUR/USD has 3 months to achieve 1.0800 or 500 pips at 200 pips per month.

EUR/USD remains oversold to long term averages on a long only strategy.

JPY Cross Pairs

EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY are overbought and divergent to neutral AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. The JPY cross pair strategy is short. GBP/JPY as leader will move the most and pay the best. CHF/JPY is also a short only strategy currency as we wait for the breaks at 123.00’s and 120.00’s.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD begins the week oversold. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY prevent larger moves this week however AUD/USD and NZD/USD will perform almost to last week’s standards. Assistance is derived from AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF as well as NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD.

CHF Cross Pairs

Oversold AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF are better trades to EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF while CAD/CHF is best to stand clear.

GBP/NZD drives EUR/NZD as GBP/NZD remains overbought. GBP/AUD is the better trade to EUR/AUD and the driver pair to EUR/AUD movements this week.

EUR/GBP sits deeply oversold yet same old EUR/GBP as it lacks range. Watch 0.8415 and 0.8426.

GBP/USD remains at breaks below at 1.3446, 1.3381 and 1.3282. The 5 year average at 1.3147 sits against many averages at 1.3100’s as 1.3100’s stand as a brick wall. Lower and short strategies for GBP/USD this week.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Week 12 and 1595 pips banked. On to 2000 and no losses.

Short 115.83 and 115.91 to target 114.82. Long 114.82 to target 115.25.

S&P”s 500 Day Trade

Long bottoms and short tops. 4481.88 to 4356.43. Levels: 4480.85, 4464.22, 4401.11, 4396.54, 4391.52, 4386.51, 4376.48, 4366.45 and 4356.43.

AMC 19.48 to 18.14.
Wal Mart 136.83 to 133.82.
NASDAQ 13532.78 to 14049.52.

Brian Twomey

USDJPY Weekly Trade As Posted Sunday

Short 115.56 & 115.63 to target 114.53

116.33 highs off 70 #pips

For the 3rd time in 11 weekly trades, required to add 1 lot & trade to target

Result 16.33 highs, Lows 115.01

2 Lots.

From 115.63 to 115.01 +62 #pips

116.33 to 115.01 +132 pips

Total 194 pips

SPX
The #SPX #price path today 4461.80 to 4527.40 then Current 4416.0
Morning Post 4641.45 to 4432.13.

#AMC The #Price Path Today 19.38 to 19.61 then 18.50

Morning Post 20.93, 19.38, 18.61, 17.84, 17.06, 16.29

Brian Twomey

NZD/USD’s weekly trade target written Sunday at 0.6723 achieved its destination and traded to 0.6731 for an extra 8 pips. From 0.6613 at the Sunday open, the trade ran 110 pips to 0.6723.

AMC

AMC stock, wrong on 2 posts. Correct yesterday as written at btwomey.com. As posted, 20.35,19.65 Vs 18.24 and 17.54. Actual 20.93 to 17.84. Required is 6 numbers to cover the gaps.

AMC today’s day trade to short tops and long bottoms: 20.93, 19.38, 18.61, 17.84, 17.06, 16.29. Correct today and perfect everyday forward. Required is minutes to factor and voila rather than gazillions video hours. Where currency day trades end then individual stocks and the S&P’s begin.

EUR/USD held its levels all week as written Sunday: EUR/USD vital levels were located 1.1384, 1.1385 Vs 1.1524, 1.1530. EUR/USD traded 1.1494 to 1.1368 and violated 1.1384 by 16 pips.

USD/CAD as written Sunday, 1.2630, 1.2640 and 1.2651 Vs 1.2826. Actual this week traded 1.2756 to 1.2636.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

USD/JPY short 115.56 and 115.63 to target 114.53. USD/JPY achieved 115.56 and 115.63 yet traded to 116.33 highs or off by 70 pips. For the 3rd time in 11 weekly trades, we’re forced to add 1 lot and trade to target. This is a bonus as USD/JPY offers the 3rd time for extra profit pips.

USD/JPY begins next week severe overbought. Today’s close price doesn’t matter from high 115.00’s to 116.00’s as USD/JPY will remain overbought.

Overbought GBP/NZD traded lower by 273 pips and 270 for EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD opened this week at 2.0436 and 1.7298 for EUR/NZD or a spread of 3100 pips. Current GBP/NZD trades 2.0383 and 1.7182 for EUR/NZD or 3200 pips. Correct is 2600 which means more big moves at 600 pips are ahead for both pairs.

GBP/NZD big line above is located at 2.0572 and 1.7342 for EUR/NZD. Deeply overbought EUR/NZD is the leader pair to assist GBP/NZD lower.

The winners this week were EUR/AUD as it traded 362 pips from 1.6204 to 1.5842 and GBP/AUD 334 pips from 1.9135 to 1.8801.

For next week EUR/AUD 1.5866, GBP/AUD 1.8836 and AUD/USD 0.7191 are crucial levels for longs and shorts.

JPY cross pairs currently trade in deep overbought except NZD/JPY. GBP/JPY as leader of JPY cross pairs targets easily 155.00’s from current 157.00’s.

GBP/USD traded a fairly neutral 150 pips this week, overbought GBP/JPY will assist next next to take GBP/USD lower. GBP/USD big lines below are located 1.3449 and 1.3375. GBP/USD’s problem is it lacks range ability.

Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD trade oversold and long so far is the way next week. The problem pair for AUD/USD is overbought AUD/JPY while NZD/JPY trades neutral.

Overbought CAD/JPY will assist USD/CAD higher next week.

ECB and Rates

Negative interest rates is the model from Silvio Gesell in the 1800’s. Gesell was brilliant and factored how and why negative interest rates worked. See btwomey.com for Silvio Gesell writings and Gesell’s recommended book the Natural Economic Order.
Negative interest rates are actually positive rates but factored from a scale below 0. The scale changed rather than the rates.

ECB’s STIR overnight rate trades -0.572 to -0.55 or 0.428 to 0.45. ECB rates would never trade below FED rates at 0.08 and 0.25. Once the FED raises then the ECB will raise by a corresponding amount to match the FED.

Brian Twomey

AMC at the 16.43 open today contains a big break to target lower prices at 15.74. A break below at 15.74 targets 15.12 then 14.81.

AMC from the 14.91 close yesterday traveled from 14.66 to 16.77 or 2.11 points or an average move at 1.06 and hourly candles valued at 0.61.

Monday, AMC from the Friday close at 15.35 traded from 14.61 to 16.02 or 1.41 points and an average move at 0.70.

For the past 5 and 10 days, close prices averaged right at 15 points.

For context, the specific AMC reference is to day trades yet the proper method is to perform correct functions and trades by view to longer dated averages for entries and targets. The last S&P trade for 500 ish points serves as the example.

Day trades forces constant screen watch and many numbers involved to the trade.
Yesterday was offered 14.75, 14.83, 14.91, 14.99 and 15.07. Any price trades above or below intended parameters then free money exists to accounts.

Correct was 14.66 to 15.07 or +41 points. Missed was 1.7 points and 20 more numbers. AMC achieved 2.11 points from 26 total numbers.

AMC begins the day overbought from the 16.43 close. Above 16.43 remains 16.52, 16.61, 16.70 then extremes at 16.79, 16.88 and 16.96.

Any price above 16.43 is good for shorts. Below 2 vital points exists as vital breaks: 16.38 and 16.34 Break at 16.34 then targets 16.07 and 16.07 achieves its destination by 16.25, 16.16, 16.07 and 15.98.

From 15.98 to 15.74 achieves by 15.89 and 15.80.

Below 16.34, AMC begins oversold. Long at the 16.07 targets 16.29.

Today’s AMC day trade is derived from 11 numbers and just under 1/2 to yesterday. Yesterday’s trade viewed under the proper analysis was actually an easy trade for 2 points. The rise was based on 15.74.

Brian Twomey

As written Sunday, divergence existed between EUR/USD and GBP/USD Vs AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Divergence informed a gap existed and the gap favored AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The distant gap was forced to close by no other choice.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded lower would’ve closed the gap easily but AUD/USD and NZD/USD was oversold and fairly neutral to start the week for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

The correct result was EUR/USD and GBP/USD to remain neutral and dead for 2 days while AUD/USD and NZD/USD traded higher to close the gap.

As written Sunday, AUD/USD targets 0.7136 and 0.7155. AUD/USD traded to exactly 0.7136. Long from the 0.7072 Sunday open then all profit by 64 pips. Free money as only a click was required and never to sit and watch charts and waste valuable time.

AUD/USD remains oversold on a long only strategy.

As written Sunday, NZD/USD targets 0.6723 or 110 pips. NZD/USD as the slack currency over many months traded to 0.6653. Long from the Sunday open at 0.6613 then 40 pips are banked however the week contains 3 more trade days.

For 2 quick AUD/USD and NZD/USD trades, total profit = 104 pips.

NZD/USD remains oversold on a long only strategy. AUD/USD as a middle currency pair to NZD/USD bottom position therefore AUD/USD will always outperform and trade more pips than NZD/USD.

As the EUR/USD, GBP/USD V AUD/USD and NZD/USD’s gap closed then EUR/USD’s turn to trade was available.

EUR/USD today dropped to 1.1396. As written Sunday, EUR/USD vital levels were located 1.1384, 1.1385 Vs 1.1524, 1.1530. EUR/USD then bounced from 1.1396.

USD/JPY’s weekly trade was next on deck.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD’s gap close opened the way for other currencies to trade as AUD/USD and NZD/USD paralyzed all currency pair movements.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

The trade. USD/JPY short 115.56 and 115.63 to target 114.53. Long 114.53 to target 114.92.

Result. USD/JPY highs 115.54, lows 115.32. So far +22 pips and running.

USD/JPY Candles and Price Methods

Only 2 methods exist to view USD/JPY today. The first is the forward price predictative power of candles. This method places every other trade method and trade system to shame. And takes 2 seconds for free money.
Or view USD/PY price methods as next bottom targets at 115.22, 115.14 and 114.93.

   AMC Stock or AMC Entertainment Holdings. 

Vital for stock trades are 3 vital aspects: PE Ratio, Dividend dates and NYSE stocks. Note AMC and 3 letters to signify NYSE and most quality stocks. PE ratios signify a high or low price. Dividend dates are special easy money trades.

AMC day trade today is the same as any financial instrument, long bottom and short tops as interest rate determinations to drive prices.

AMC today: 114.75, 114.83, 114.91, 114.99 and 115.07. Any price trades above or below intended parameters then free money exists to accounts.

Brian Twomey

Currency markets this week are not only dictated by EUR/USD’s 5 year average at 1.1524 Vs DXY at 95.05 but more significant divergence exists between EUR/USD and GBP/USD Vs AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

AUD/USD is driven by deeply oversold averages at 0.7193, 0.7240 and 0.7350. AUD/USD’s 50 to 253 day averages are located from 0.7177 to 0.7344 and all sit at deeply oversold.

AUD/USD oversold conforms to AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD while EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD begin the week at Richter scale overbought.

NZD/USD is in the same situation as AUD/USD as NZD/USD is deeply oversold from driver averages at 0.6773, 0.6823 and 0.6889. The 50 to 253 day averages from 0.6745 to 0.6964 also sit massive oversold.

Oversold exists to NZD cross pairs NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD while EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD begin the week in the overbought stratosphere. GBP/NZD approaches the 14 year average at 2.0578 and EUR/NZD at 1.7344.

As currency markets trade back to the doldrums from last week’s rare trade range animation, the numbers 100 to 125 applies to this week’s form.

AUD/USD for example targets first 0.7136 then 0.7155 or less than 100 pips while NZD/USD targets first 0.6723 or 110 pips on a long only strategy.

USD/CAD’s 124 weekly pips last week or 1/2 of GBP/USD is explained by 1.2630, 1.2640 and 1.2651 Vs 1.2826. Despite a 175 pips range and overbought, CAD/CHF as the complement currency to CAD/JPY remains the USD/CAD problem to small ranges.

EUR/USD’s 130 pips are located at 1.1384, 1.1385 Vs 1.1524, 1.1530 and 1.1542. Overbought EUR cross pairs EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP assists to take EUR/USD lower.

GBP/USD Day Trade Results

GBP/USD traded 240 pips last week or an hourly average of 3.33 pips based on 72 weekly trade hours. GBP/USD 2 weeks ago traded 195 weekly pips or an hourly average of 2.70 pips.

GBP/USD traded 10 of 72 trade hours above 27 pips for a total of a 41 pip average or 4.1 pip hourly average based on 10 hours of trade.

For the 10 best trade hours, GBP/USD spent 13.89% of its time on 72 trade hours under terrific trades thanks to BOE. For BOE, GBP/USD traded 3 good hours, 1 good hour for NFP and the remainder 6 hours, traders had to fight for profit pips.

GBP/USD spent 44.64% of its time on 72 trade hours or exactly 62 hours at 20 pips and under for each of 62 hours.

Fibonacci numbers hit its hourly target possibly 4 or 5 hours of 72 hours. Not only is Fibonacci square roots of 5 off base to statistics and simple averages but trading GBP/USD alone based on Fibonacci excludes the USD side to the exchange rate and explains why targets miss.

GBP/USD or any currency pair and financial instrument trades a day trade as GBP/USD and USD/GBP or EUR/USD and USD/EUR, USD/CAD and CAD/USD, GBP/NZD and NZD/GBP.

EM currencies are much easier to trade and profit due to the wide variations in such pairs as USD/TRY and TRY/USD, USD/PLN and PLN/USD, USD/BRL and BRL/USD, USD/ZAR and ZAR/USD, RON, DKK and CNY.

The opposite of the reciprocals for each exchange rate side to any financial instrument is assigned separate daily ranges. As GBP/USD trades higher then USD/GBP must trade lower and vice versa. USD/GBP and the USD side to any currency pair is the containment side to prevent GBP/USD from trading to astronomical levels.

Factor daily ranges and hourly movements to USD/GBP and GBP/USD then hourly Fibonacci misses it target and despite many attempts to find how and where Fibonacci works.

Add to hourly Fibonacci is the guaranteed miss to weekly trades. The answer is found in the day trade and weekly relationship.

The difference mathematically between the day trade and weekly trades is zero as the day and weekly trade are exactly the same by statistics. The day trade was cut by almost exactly 1/2 to align to weekly trades. The day trade has as much of an equal chance to hit weekly targets.

By day trade cut to 1/2, the central banks changed day trades from multiple longs and shorts per currency pair to 1 trade in 7 1/2 hours of trade. Not only must the day trade enter and exit perfectly to profit but day trade profit opportunities are more severely limited.

All by central bank design and the ECB is the leader of the radical transformations. Read President Hoover’s memoirs from the 1930’s and readers will note Europe, Germany and the ECB remained activist central banks. Nothing changed in the modern day.

The difference mathematically to day trades to GBP/USD and USD/GBP is zero as both are the exact same pair under the exact same statistics and under the exact same entries and targets.

GBP/USD’s weekly target last week was 1.3622. Thursday’s BOE day trade achieved 1.3626. Shame the weekly trade didn’t post.

On my blog at btwomey.com for interested is a massive mathematical break down to day trades as nearly 2 weeks was spent taking a statistical deep dive to day trades previous and current changes.

Statistics is the absolute to demonstrate, examine and prove exactly what’s happening with day trades. Statistics and Math is never required to trade the day trades as central banks offer day trades every trade day.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

USD/JPY begins the week overbought as well as USD/CAD and USD/CHF. A rare week to big 3 alignment.

The 11th week to weekly trades runs 1401 pips total.

USD/JPY short 115.56 and 115.63 to target 114.53. Long 114.53 to target 114.92.

EM Day Trades

Only vital numbers apply to long bottoms and short tops.

USD/TRY 13.4228, 13.4770, 13.6612, 13.6798 and 13.7362.
USD/BRL 5.2687, 5.2910, 5.3022, 5.3590, 5.3763, 5.3966
USD/PLN 3.9416, 3.9588, 3.9682, 4.0096, 4.0225, 4.0371

USD/RON 4.2716, 4.2881, 4.2992, 4.3440, 4.3572
USD/CNY 6.2893, 6.3131, 6.3251, 6.3979, 6.4143, 6.4391

USD/HUF 302.11, 306.74, 312.50, 313.47, 317.46
USD/DKK 6.4308, 6.4599, 6.4683, 6.5445, 6.5616, 6.5876

Brian Twomey

What trades Sunday open to China for GBP/USD.

1.3458, 1.3475, 1.3486, 1.3492, 1.3499, 1.3534, 1.3543, 1.3551, 1.3560, 1.3577, 1.3585 and 1.3594

USD/GBP

0.7355, 0.7364, 0.7371, 0.7378, 0.7397, 0.7402, 0.7407,0.7412, 0.7421, 0.7426, 0.7431

A day trade is the relationship between GBP/USD and USD/GBP or EUR/USD V USD/EUR

0.7355 USD/GBP = GBP/USD 1.3596 and USD/GBP 0.7431 = GBP/USD 1.3457.

As GBP/USD rises and falls then the equivalent USD/GBP also rises and falls.

Or Does this GBP/USD trade 3 1/2 hours of Sunday night

1.3467, 1.3484, 1.3496, 1.3503, 1.3509, 1.3544,1.3553,1.3561, 1.3570, 1.3587, 1.3596, 1.3605,

Is GBP/USD a backward traded currency for Sunday’s open or maintains its forward price.

Brian Twomey

As written last Sunday, EUR/USD from long term averages are massively oversold and targets 1.1391 and 1.1399 on a long only strategy. EUR/USD opened Sunday at 1.1147 and traded to 1.1470 or +252 pips to 1.1399.

Further to Sunday, EUR/USD this week traded 323 pips or 14 X 6 = 84 and 84 X 4 or 323 is just shy of 336 pips. At 252 factors as 84 X 3.

As mentioned and shown over many years to complete trade targets for weekly, daily and 24 hour trades are factored by simple math and using pen, paper and calculator as charts, indicators, and all popular trade vehicles were discarded 10+ years ago.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

USD/JPY weekly trade achieved target at 114.18 from 115.52. Lows traded 114.15. The 2nd trade is now in play. Long 114.18 to target 114.58. Target at 114.58 achieved.
Result: 115.52 to 114.15 = +137 pips then 114.15 to 114.58 = +43 pips for total of 180 pips.

USD/JPY range traded 142 pips. We profited from all 142 pips + 38 more pips.
The grand total to 10 weekly trades is now 1401 pips.

Weekly trades continue as the next goal is 2000 pips then 2500. Eventually, 5000 pips and completed without losses.

As written Sunday, the massive USD Vs Non USD divide had to close and this is exactly what happened this week. Trade strategy offered was long non USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Entry doesn’t matter.

The consequence to long Non USD currencies was short USD such as USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. Entry doesn’t matter. USD/CHF fails as an actively traded currency pair because its a horrible exchange rate however USD/CHF dropped 200 + pips this week and was the big winner to USD/JPY at 142 and 124 pips for USD/CAD .

Note current USD/CHF 0.9211 vs 95.34 or 0.9534 DXY. USD/CHF for the long term future will trade 300 pips to DXY and both exchange rates won’t meet nor cross over.

This is a bonus situation to trade USD/CHF however USD/CHF contains severe Noise, signal and range problems therefore it was eliminated until trade conditions improve.

The massive USD Vs Non USD divide not only closed this week but the opposite scenario holds for next week as short Non USD and long USD due to the further divide that favors oversold USD and overbought Non USD.

The USD Vs Non USD demarcation line is seen most specifically in EUR/USD’s 5 year average at 1.1524 Vs DXY at 95.06. DXY currently trades 95.31 and 1.1459 for EUR/USD.

If EUR/USD breaks above 1.1524 and DXY 95.06 then next week’s trade life becomes a continuation to long non USD and short USD. DXY traded many times to the brink over the past month at 95.06 and recovered to trade higher.

EUR/USD for today’s NFP trades top targets at 1.1488 and 1.1509 and 1.1524 holds.

USD/JPY short entry this week was 115.52. For NFP, the same trade is in effect to short 115.38 and 115.45 to target 115.02 then 114.78.

Best trades next week are GBP/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD.

Brian Twomey

The Currency price is only as good as the MA allows and despite a 50 point raise by the BOE. The BOE informed a 50 point raise is a day trade. The BOE informed in December another 50 point raise is a day trade.

Not only does my trade information for today’s day trade derive from the BOE but the BOE also offered levels, ranges and targets in order to profit. The central banks are very kind people especially when traders follow their trade advice. I offered the BOE trade for today’s traders.

December 16 when the BOE last raised, GBP/USD in 2 hourly candles rose 111 and total 129 pips. GBP/USD achieved highs at 1.3375 but 2 days later, GBP/USD traded to 1.3175 or 200 pips lower. The currency price is only as good as the MA allows.

Today’s GBP/USD was valued at 1.3537 to 1.3626 or 89 pips. From 1.3554 then 72 pips. The currency price is only as good as the MA allows. 2 raises on 2 different days with 2 separate results.

GBP/USD top at 1.3622 traded 4 extra pips to 1.3626. Shorts began with 4 free money pips. Shorts then traded from 1.3626 t 1.3558 or 68 pips.

As day trades are designed for multiple longs and shorts, all should’ve banked many pips today and well prepared as the trade was offered long in advance of BOE. Only requirement was click click.

The trade strategy moving forward is the currency price is only as good as the MA allows. The 50 point raise event is now over and allow it to disappear from trade logic and trade strategy. Any economics for today must also allow disappearance from the mind of trade logic because the currency price doesn’t care.

If the currency price was an economic document then GBP/USD levels would trade at points to match economics. It never does as this concept never existed. GBP/USD dropped from 1.3300’s to 1.3100’s in December.

The hawkish/ dovish assessment is good for about 1 hour of trades. Then it must disappear from trade reasoning.

A currency price is a market and interest rate document only and trades MA’s as a market instrument. Trade economics or politics or central bank policy to an MA market instrument will result in losing trades.

Any financial instrument deserves the same assessment. A stock index, yield or commodity for example is only as good as the MA allows and economics doesn’t count.

Brian Twomey