Food Security: Wheat, Corn, Barley

The overall trade in Wheat expanded from 2000/2001 lows right at 110 million metric tons to 182 million metric tons in late 2019. Russia controlled 1% of the world wheat market in 2000 then surged to 22%, 23% by 2019. The higher result is due to Russia’s expanded port and rail capacity and ongoing investments in building and modernizing ports.

The United States by contrast owned 32% of world wheat markets in 2004/2005 then dropped to approximately 17% by 2019.

For tonnage context. For 1 metric ton equates to 36.7437 bushels as 1 bushel = .0272155 metric ton or 1000 kg, approximately 2204 lbs. using British tons or 2000 lbs for American tons. At 182 Metric Tons = 401,237.2 Pounds under the British tonnage system.

Russia, Europe and the United States peaked to Wheat prices in 2019 specifically for Russia’s Black Sea Milling, France Rouen Grade 1 and the United States Hard Red Winter.

If the 2022 global Grain trade to Wheat, Corn and Barley for context to Russia / United States Wheat only then just over 210 metric tons of Wheat comprise current markets, 180 metric tons of Corn and 25 metric tons of Barley. In comparison to the rest of the world, Ukraine and Russia represent a tiny dot not worthy of a conversation to affect the west to Wheat, Corn nor Barley.

Currently, Russia accounts for 16% of world exports in Wheat while Ukraine factors to 10%. Ukraine suspended port operations as a result of the Russia / Ukraine conflict while Russia instituted an export quota at 11 million tons from February to June 2022 and Wheat accounts for 8 million tons. Additionally, Russia passed an export tax under higher vessel insurance. Russia may meet the export demand provided exports are open from the Caspian Sea.

Affected are Russia’s largest export markets of Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Armenia, Belarus ,Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Ukraine and Russia account for 16% of Corn exports. The United States owns 33% of the Corn market followed by 22% to Argentina and 17% to Brazil Vs 27% to the rest of the world.

Ukraine and Russia account for 30% of Barley export markets while Australia dominates Barley markets at 26%, European Union 22% and 5% to Canada Vs 17% to the rest of the world. Both Canada and Australia experienced higher production and is expected to enhance or stabilize Barley market prices.

The Ukraine / Russia war disrupted Grain markets as reduced supplies are marked by higher export, Cash and Futures prices as importers search for new suppliers. For Wheat, The United States and Europe shot higher to $162 for the US and $150 per ton for Europe while Australia rose to $47 due to increased supplies and Canada $60 per ton. Argentina rose to $116 per ton.

Australia is expected to export 27 million tons and an all time high. So rich is Wheat supplies, Australia will look to open markets in Africa nd the middle east.

Egypt is diversifying to Romania for Wheat while Turkey imposed duty free imports for all 2022. “Turkey also imports a significant amount of wheat grain to re-export wheat flour and products such as pasta. Turkey is the top exporter of wheat flour to the world, with more than 30 percent exported to Iraq, followed by Yemen and Syria as major destinations.

China is currently the world’s largest Corn importer at 29 million tones followed by Mexico at 9 million tons. The United States Corn price reached 320 per ton and at record highs and overall contains large supplies. Ukraine Corn affects markets in the middle east and Africa.

While markets were disrupted by the Russia / Ukraine war, prices for food and grains skyrocketed as a result of supply problems. Food shortage however is non existent.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: March 2022

USD/JPY’s 5, 10 and 14 year averages: 109.74, 106.98, 101.98. Averages are tracking down and all severely overbought. USD/JPY 10 year monthly averages stops dead at 116.00’s and 117.00’s are targets for the 10 year. Where is 121 and 122.00’s located, I don’t know as I lack any desire to enter the numbers. Lower targets at 113.00’s and 112.00’s on a break of 116.96 haven’t changed.

CHF/JPY as the same exact pair as USD/JPY traveled 1500 pips in 11 months from 116.00’s or 135 pips per month. USD/JPY for the same 11 month period traveled 1501 pips from 107 to 122.00’s or 136 pips per month.

Last time USD/JPY traded 122’s and CHF/JPY at 131.00’s was June 2015. CHF/JPY lifetime highs traded 147.00’s on January 1980 or 42 years ago. Since 1960 or 62 years ago, lifetime highs at 147 holds.

USD/JPY since 2008 traded 123.00 highs. Since the 1972 free float, USD/JPY traded 300.00’s highs. USD/JPY was first introduced by the allies after WW2 at 360.00 to ensure exchange rates were aligned so the Japanese were able to buy food and feed their populations.

Current USD/JPY is on a correction higher inside a massive downtrend since 360.00’s.

GBP/USD 1.2922, 1.3040, 1.3149, 1.3169,1.3197,1.3253,1.3341 and 1.3432. GBP/USD currently trades between 1.3149, 1,3169 and 1.3197. GBP/USD’s 5 year average is located 1.3169.

GBP/USD current price is wrapped tightly around many significant averages. GBP/JPY is deeply overbought while GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are deeply oversold. GBP/CHF serves its purpose by following GBP/USD and is currently oversold however caught in small ranges.

GBP/JPY targets 157.92 then 154.14 and note 3 and 600 pips as highly consistent to March moves.

GBP/AUD last time saw 1.7500’s was January 2021. GBP/AUD then traded to 1.9200’s and now a full circle was completed. The yearly pattern for GBP/AUD is to trade in such circles. Lows trade then highs and back to lows. The cycle repeats quite often historically for GBP/AUD on a yearly cycle.

Trade by Calculator AUD/USD

Note AUD/USD 0.7513 and GBP/AUD 1.7531. Subtract the 1 from GBP/AUD and we have the same exact currency pair.

AUD/USD 0.7513 X 2.33 = 1.7505 GBP/AUD. AUD/USD X 2.34 = 1.7580.
Last week. AUD/USD 0.7412 Vs GBP/AUD 1.7767. AUD/USD X 2.4 = 1.7788. AUD/USD X 2.39 = 1.7714.

USD/JPY 121.85 X 1.08 = CHF/JPY 131.59. The higher exchange rate means calculations must be positive.

How far ahead to trade by calculator in 2 seconds and eliminate statistics, charts and 99% of all the bull junk seen these days.

AUD/USD 0.7258, 0.7364,0.7526, 0.7631,0.7780, 0.7975,0.8062,0.8235. AUD/USD and AUD cross pairs are miles overbought and rising from a deeply overbought and out of control AUD/JPY. AUD/JPY targets 84.00’s. The problem with overbought AUD/USD is a deeply oversold EUR/USD.

USD/CAD 1.2145, 1.2317, 1.2378, 1.2581,1.2640, 1.2660, 1.2825,1.2857, 1.2895, 1.3010,1.3017, 1.3054. USD/CAD big breaks are located from 1.3004 and 12317 at the 5 and 10 year averages. USD/CAD is oversold and dropped 500 pips in the last 2 weeks from 1.2800’s.

EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD are both deeply oversold while AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD are overbought. CAD/JPY targets 90.68. Overbought CAD/CHF is running perfectly to CAD/JPY.

EUR/USD on a break at 1.1182, targets 1.1266, 1.1328 and 1.1358 and 1.1450. EUR/JPY is massive overbought and targets easily 129.00’s. Oversold EUR/USD is in perfect harmony to oversold cross pairs other than EUR/JPY.

Brian Twomey

March 2016 V 2018, 2020 and 2022

March 2016

EUR/USD. Topside points 1.1281, 1.1290, 1.1302, 1.1317, 1.1373. Further 1.1406, 1.1457, 1.1470, DXY. From current 95.07, topside at 97.00’s. Both headline interest rate at 0.50 and Fed Funds at 0.37 trade comfortably between 8 and 9 year average.

Today’s 0.50 headline and Fed Funds at 0.33.

USD 10Y yield minus 2Y = 0.9873, 10 minus 3 month = 1.61. The 10 minus 2 year today = 0.157. The 10 year minus 3 month = 1.793 or no change.

EUR/USD V NZD/USD. EUR/USD prices should be between 1.0938 – 1.0876, the big point remains 1.0907. NZD/USD is correct between 0.6682 – 0.6594 with big vital point 0.6638, AUD/USD targets easily achieved at 0.7317. Overnight 0.7330.

No change from today. No changes to trades and targets. Began in 2012.

March 2018

USD/JPY was and remains deeply oversold at 113.00’s, 111.00’s and 110.00’s. No change today.

EUR/AUD at the time of Wednesday’s post hit its highs at 1.6192 and so far touched 1.5982 for a 210 pip and ongoing gain. EUR/AUD since yesterday’s top at 1.6191 dropped 167 pips to 1.6024.

EUR/GBP from 0.8797 and on the approach to 0.8823 dropped 63 pips to 0.8734. USD/JPY from 104.71 and Sunday’s open profited 100 pips at 105.74 on a strict target trade. At 1.2777 is required to see CAD gain downside speed as it sits in slight overbought territory.

EUR/GBP today 0.8300, USD/JPY 119.00’s and USD/CAD 1.2603. USD/JPY changed significantly.

EUR/GBP represents 12 pairs posted in 8 days and all pairs posted performed to the exact expectation as written and the result for each pair was minimum 100 pips to meet the 100 pip trade criteria.

The past EUR/JPY 4 week and 303 pip ranged from 132.44 to 129.41

USD/CAD break points below are located at 1.2720, 1.2637, 1.2474, 1.2355 and 1.2232. No change today.

The BOE and ECB for example are hard at work on “risk free” interest rates. The USD and Fed just released SOFR as a new overnight interest rate to trade alongside Libor.

On the interest rate front, USD short rates now trade above Fed funds over last 4 days, Happened 1 time since last rate rise and overall a rare day to see this. It just doesn’t happen Only 6 times since Fed began raises has short rates traded above Fed Funds, 4 times in last 4 days, short rates are to high and always drop back to reality to normally support USD, Normally this scenario supports USD pairs.

Today, all short rates trade above Fed Funds over many years.

AUD/USD contained a negative 43% correlation to Australia OIS rates. AUD/USD was the problem and to correct then AUD higher or OIS lower.

EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR and USD/JPY was the main highlights to EUR due to perfect opposite currencies and Correlation. CAD/ZAR is the main currency to forecast commodities as CAD/ZAR represents a USD pair and commodities are priced in USD. No changes since WW 1.

Shame the 35 trades and targets achieved never posted on my blog at but posted on the websites. The criteria was 100 pip trades or no trades posted. Multiple 1000’s of pips achieved.

No changes to trades and targets.

March 2020

As mentioned in last week’s trade post, ranges for all currency pairs expanded and allowed far distant targets to achieve destinations. Approximately 4 more weeks remain to wide ranges and affects all currency pairs as markets trade to normalized prices.

Wide ranges means the current trading environment is the best opportunity in 2 years to profit easily from practically any pair chosen. The next 2 year cycle to experience easy trades to the current degree is 2022.

Best pairs this week to trade against wide ranges are GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/JPY. Second tier GBP/USD, USD/CAD, GBPCHF. Third layer contains AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY. NZD is a well functioning universe of currency pairs but lands in 4th position due to smaller ranges. AUD significantly woke up from its months long coma and is now on the march.

Normalcy may take as much as 3 months and this allows for plenty more great trade opportunities and easy trades. After normalcy achieves, expertise is required to hit trade targets.

Fairly normal functioning currency market price ranges and deviations run 300 to 600 pips. This means trade targets at the lower 300 pip point contain trade targets at about 100 to 150 pips per currency pair and per weekly trade.

GBP/CHF 2020 target 1.2879 Vs 2018 at 1.3200’s. Target = 800 pips, achieved.

GBP/USD. 2020 target 1.3385 vs 2018 at 1.3600, 1.3800 then 1.3400’s. Target 1.3400’s achieved. 1.3385 = 400 pips from 1.2900’s.AUD/USD. 2020 target 0.7300 Vs 2018 at 0.7800’s. An 800 pip target.

EUR/JPY 2020 target 123.00’s Vs 2018 at 125. A 500 pip target. GBP/JPY. 2020 target 144 vs 2018 at 147.00’s. Target achieved. An 800 pip target. EUR/AUD. 2020 target 1.5900’s Vs 2018 at 1.5900’s. No changes. A 1400 pip target.

USD/CAD. 2020 target 1.2900’s, Vs 2018 at 1.2800’s. No changes. An 800 pip target.

NZD/USD. 2020 target 0.6700’s vs 2018 at 0.7000’s. A 400 Pip target.

March 2018 was the last time long term trades for 500 and 1000 pips became abundant and affected all currency pairs. As March 2019 was dead to long term trades, March 2020 and the same 500 and 1000 pip trades are upon us. A review from March to May 2018 was seen in the 35 posted trades and many targets hit perfectly for 700 ish pips.

EUR/CAD achieved 1.4500’s target, EUR/USD achieved 1.0946 target, CHF/JPY achieved 112.04 target from 114.09, USD/SEK achieved target for 515 pips. EUR/JPY achieved target.

CAD/ZAR March 2018 traded 9.000’s and 11.000’s March 2020. Since March 2020, CAD/ZAR traded 13.0000’s to current 11.0000’s.

No changes to trades and targets.

March 2022

Trade targets factor from 3 to 500 to 600 pips at the high end. That’s 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
As always, great analysis and timely trades. To bad it all must drop as a waste of precious time.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: 2 Year Cycle, EUR/USD and Trade Opportunities

The 2 year cycle or the February to April/ May period was first identified and written extensively in 2018. In March 2016, we were regularly hitting multiple targets due to the abundance of terrific trades. Enlightenment to the 2 year cycle was in its infancy stages.

In March 2018, posted was 35 trades and all trades achieved targets in the 5, 7 and 1000 pip vicinity and multiple 1000’s of pips were banked. So great and easy were the trades, I couldn’t factor and post fast enough. GBP/JPY achieved our first 1000 pip trade and target achieved perfectly.

Identification and analysis began in March 2018 and those words are the exact same as written in 2020 and today. Trade instruction for example was enter anywhere as ranges expanded and targets were far distance to entries, Best trades are cross pairs.

March 2020 and current 2022 analysis matches 2018 as ranges expanded, enter anywhere and trade cross pairs although EUR/USD and GBP/USD performed well in 2020 at 3 and 400 pips targets however the cross pairs outperformed.

DXY at 101.00 in March 2020 was to high and overbought. DXY in March 2022 was to high and overbought at 99.18. SPX 500 dropped 900 pips in March 2020 and 600 points November 2018 as we identified the 2 year cycle as a market wide phenomenon.

For 4 typical weekly trades posted in March 2020 ran as follows: EUR/USD +284 pips, EUR/AUD +589, GBP/USD +370, USD/JPY +127 and total +1370 pips.

To add to the 2 year cycle and posted March 2020: From January 1972, possible turning point years would transpire in 2020 and 2022 as the 50 year end point. Central banks in 2022 are now in interest rate rise cycles and the 2008 crash hit perfectly. The Fed surprised March 2020 with an interest rate cut.

EUR/USD and cross pairs achieved targets by last Tuesday for +1000 ish pips, Last Tuesday was March 15 or the Ides of March when Julius Ceasar was assassinated. The word Ides translates from Latin as divide. The Romans considered March a religious observance to settle debts much the same as Jubilee years from Leviticus 25 on the 49th year.

Most interesting to the March review is trades, profits, targets, analysis and consistency over many years. Not interesting is what serves as analysis and trades today. Much has changed over a few short years

The week

EUR/USD this week targets 1.1155 and achieves this destination by breaks higher at 1.1037, 1.1060, 1.1083, 1.1106, 1.1129, 1.1152. Long term targets remain at 1.1280, 1.1337, 1.1369 and 1.1457.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD for 3 weeks running remain overbought as well as JPY cross pairs. Overbought GBP/JPY at 156.62 trades near its 158 top from the 148 to 158 range. EUR/JPY must trade to minimum 129.00’s from current 131.00’s.

GBP/USD traded 200 pips last week or 2.88 pips per hour. EUR/USD at 228 pips beat GBP/USD by 28 pips or a 228 range at 3.16 pips per hour.

USD/CAD big points are located at 1.2146, 1.2380, 1.2584, 1.2660, 1.2668 and 1.2838. USD/CAD trades dead center from 1.2584 to 1.2660.

GBP/USD 1.3123, 1.3165, 1.3209, 1.3342, 1.3419 and 1.3769. GBP/trades the lower end from 1.3123 to 1.3209.

Overall, drivers to currency markets remain EUR/USD, EUR cross pairs and USD/JPY on an enter anywhere trade status.

Brian Twomey

National Interest Rate, National Cap and Next Week

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in the final 12 CFR Parts 303 and 337 Rules effective April 1 2021 changed the concept of the national interest rate rate cap and the national interest rate.

“The FDIC views the “national rate” as as the average of rates paid by all insured depository institutions and credit unions for which data is available, with rates weighted by each institution’s share of domestic deposits. “

#The “national rate cap” is calculated as the higher of: (1) the national rate plus 75 basis points; or (2) 120 percent of the current yield on similar maturity U.S. Treasury obligations plus 75 basis points. The national rate cap for non-maturity deposits is the higher of the national rate plus 75 basis points or the federal funds rate plus 75 basis points.”

The national rate speculatively is the Money Market interest rate at 0.08 which matches the previous effective Fed Funds rate before the Fed raised. Add 75 basis points and the money market rate is capped at 0.83. The new effective funds rate should be 0.20 or capped at 0.95.

The old savings rate at 0.06 is capped at 0.81 while the new savings rate should be 0.18 and capped at 0.93. Savers for the first time in 15 years contain a shot to save and earn from deposits.

Checking accounts and 1 month Certificate of Deposits at 0.03 are both capped at 0.79 for checking and 0.83 for CD’s. The new rate by speculation is 0.15 and capped at 0.89 and 0.90.

CD’s from 3 month to 60 months or 5 years are factored and pay interest from current 0.06 to 0.28 and capped from 1.01 to 2.69. The Treasury equivalent factors as 0.22 to 1.62.

THE CD question is to holding periods for either CD’s or Treasury yields in order to earn intertest.

The FDIC as regulator to banks instituted the new 51 page rules along with historical background to allow banks competitiveness to less well capitalized institutions and to the fast moving electronic market to move funds within seconds.

JP Morgan is restricted to offer higher rates than a less well capitalized institution to drive the institution into bankruptcy. All bank Deposit rates operate under the same rules.

Speculation, the Fed at 25 basis points to each raise adheres to the principles to the National Average and National Rate cap. Bullard may vote for a 50 point hike but it won’t ever happen at one meeting. We’re restricted to 25 point raises from today to eternity or when the Fed had enough.

The UK banking system works as closely and competitively as the FDIC to interest payouts.

As to Commercial Paper rates and most at 270 day holding periods is not addressed yet a spotty record to daily reporting existed over last weeks. The imperative to non Financial Commercial paper to address off shore rates is to use implied rates from Libor while Commercial Paper Financial for US Money markets holds near the effective Fed funds rate.

Next week

EUR/USD at near 1.1100’s is 1/2 way from 1.0900 bottoms to 1.1300’s target. A close today in the vicinity of 1.1014 then bodes well for longs next week. We;re long anyway but a more perfect entry is the goal.

EUR/NZD from the 1.6500 target reported 2 weeks ago traded to 1.6238 highs from 1.5900 lows. Currently oversold and long for next week.

EUR/AUD sits 22 pips below its Sunday open at current 1.4978.

EUR/CAD at 1.3957 trades near its Sunday open at 1.3907. Long for next week.

USD/JPY and JPY Cross Pairs

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are driven by shortest term averages from 5 to 20 to 50 day averages. Shortest term averages are the only remaining averages as remainder averages dated to 1999 are deeply overbought.

USD/JPY at 119.00’s and 120’s trade at far extremes to short averages. USD/JPY target remains 115.00’s, 114.00’s then 113.00’s and a short only strategy. Note the 600 number from 119 to 113.00’s.

To travel off kilter. Note current longer term targets sit at 500 to 600 pips and this once every 2 year phenomenon exists at present and a fabulous opportunity to bank many pips. The magic numbers for overall currency trading are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and rarely 8.

Without detail, trust the analysis from deep research to prior past periods over years. Because currency prices work on Futures IMM over 3 months, targets will achieve anywhere from this day to at most 3 months. Normally targets achieve from 1 to 2 months and not normal for 3 months.

The overall period to great and easy trades as we are in presently, always hits in the February to May or March to June time frame. And once every 2 years without fail. Again the number 2 for 2 years, 2 week cycle, 200 pip targets, 2 day average on Monday, divide 2 to obtain an average.

On 5 and 600 pips targets, entry doesn’t matter, nor stops, charts and all the rest of the retail tools. This is a golden period to bank pips. When May and June trades, we’re back to range trades as the anchor pair vs Cross pair relationship fully normalizes. All must work for the trades.

EUR/JPY trades above its top at 129.00’s and must trade back to minimum 129.00’s. Extremes are located from low to middle 132.00’s to low 133.00’s. EUR/JPY historically traded 132.00’s to 134.00’s over many past years and dropped significantly. No difference exists today.

CAD/JPY look out below as supports remain at 89.00’s and solid. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY same principles as CAD/JPY, look out below and hello to 200 pips lower.


GBP/JPY as reported 2 weeks ago ranges from 148.00’s to 158.00’s and at 156.00’s is not only overbought but approaches its range tops. Short is the way forward.
GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/NZD long, long next week and many weeks to come.

USD/CAD long, long for many weeks to come.

GBP/USD approaches its 5 year average at 1.3166 Vs USD/CAD at 1.3007.

Note the exchange rate lineup EUR/JPY 131.58, GBP/USD 1.3133 and USD/CAD 1.2606. Both GBP/USD and USD/CAD are oversold while EUR/JPY prices are to high. This relationship governs next moves and EUR/JPY will lead the way forward.

AUD/USD and NZD look out below.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, EUR Cross Pairs, the Great Reset

Today is Fed day and another lazer beam focus to a probable 50 pip move. How important is this day. Viewed from recommended trades. This day is meaningless and time in the trade rooms will be wasted. While the opportunity existed to spend quality time on other projects and events.

This week’s trade recommendations for 20 currency pairs were long and short anywhere at the Sunday night open. I fail to recall such an opportunity as long and short anywhere on 20 currency pairs. But this was the opportunity presented and the moment didn’t fail us as usual.

As written for the past 2 weeks, anchor pairs will fail us and focus on EUR cross pairs and GBP cross pairs but GBP only for this week to relieve oversold conditions.
EUR/USD traded 108 pips this week. EUR/AUD was the winner with a 371 pips range followed by EUR/NZD 306 and EUR/CAD 249.

GBP/USD traded 50 pips. Correct to no future here and under perfomance. GBP/AUD traded 302 pips, GBP/NZD 226, GBP/CAD 167 and GBP/CHF 134.

NZD/USD at 84 pips outperformed dead GBP/USD at 50. Correct is GBP/USD always trades farther and wider than NZD/USD. A warning to problems.

USD/CAD traded 139 pips and AUD/USD 134. Both great pairs and should always remain the focus to weekly trades. NZD/USD has problems but NZD lived with the same old range problems since November and sat on the bottom to 19 currency pair trade rankings. The RBNZ raise didn’t assist NZD one iota.

See USD/CAD as reported 1.2841 and 1.2863. Cad traded to 1.2870.
GBP/JPY traded 177 pips to lead JPY cross pairs higher. We wrote to caution to GBP/JPY due to the position to USD/JPY and GBP/USD yet it was actively traded. No pair ever goes to not trade status despite its position.

EUR/JPY at 129.00 multi year highs. Short only is the way. What is 130.00’s. I don’t know. Only Jesus Christ knows as 130.00’s doesn’t exist.

AUD as written short AUD/USD and cross pairs. AUD/JPY +88 pips,
CAD/JPY up 93 and down 30.

USD/JPY remains a problem. Long term target remains 113.00 and 112.00’s on a short only strategy. Now at 118. For every pip higher will result in + profit pips on the way down. What is 118 USD/JPY. Another question for Jesus Christ as it doesn’t exist.

DXY as we wrote Sunday, short from 99.15 highs achieved 98.61 lows. Target lows as written Sunday, 98.56.

Currency markets are cross pair driven for many weeks to come and a fantastic opportunity to profit.

Ask this question on Fed day. With 1000 and 1500 pips banked without effort, Is this day spent earning more pips or sit the week out and wait for the next’s week’s easiest trades. Do we really care what the FED does and says. No we don’t especially to Powell as politics is far more vital to this charlatan than economics.

The Great Reset

The trend a few banks recognize to late is the concoction and collusion of far left governments, major companies, banks and the World Economic Forum, solidified just a few years ago. Its called the great reset. The Reset is politics as central banks performed their function to destroy market movements.

Power is now in coordination stages with banks, governments and major companies to solidify this power inside the institutions of governments. The target is the masses and the revenue generated for political elites. Authoritarianism is the only way to achieve the riches.

Climate change is the disguise to fool the masses as governments are on the move to solidity its power permanently. Once completed, its over.

Read WEF Klaus Schwab. This man is a dangerous far left Stalinist nut. Read Glenn Beck the Great Reset. The only man on the planet to report and perform extensive research over many years.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD, Cross Pairs, USD/JPY, GBP

Currency markets this week begin a repeat performance from last week as long EUR/USD, EUR cross pairs and short USD/JPY. As written last week, Currency markets are driven by EUR/USD, EUR cross pairs and USD/JPY. When EUR/USD achieves 1.1300 ‘s and USD/JPY relieves massive overbought conditions then markets resume again to normality.

EUR/USD closed last week at 1.0928 and 1.0910 this week. EUR cross pairs barely closed 100 pips higher from last week. EUR upside contains a long way to go as trades this week are the exact same as last week.

Oversold GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs joins EUR to travel higher. Nothing special exist to GBP/USD except oversold and a forced move higher. GBP cross pairs are far better trades. We’re cautious this week to GBP/JPY as GBP/JPY is off kilter to JPY cross pairs and GBP/USD.

DXY achieved its top at 99.00. Next targets lower are located at 98.56,98.34, 98.14 then 97.84, 97.76 and 96.73. The 5 year average is found at 94.93.

All JPY cross pairs are severely overbought. EUR/JPY last week traded to 129.00’s from 124.00’s and begins the week at 127.00’s and dead center to 125.00’s and 129.00’s. EUR/JPY 129.00’s represents a multi year top.

AUD/USD and cross pairs remain severely overbought. AUD/USD’s main problem is a severely oversold EUR/AUD. EUR/AUD closed barely 100 pips higher from last week’s close and must travel far higher in order for AUD/USD to trade a wider and acceptable range.

Overbought NZD/USD is in the same predicament as AUD/USD to NZD/USD’ s relationship to EUR/NZD. EUR/NZD closed 100 pips higher from last week and must travel higher in order to open NZD/USD ranges. NZD cross pairs sit overbought to begin the week except NZD/CAD as 0.8660 decides NZD/CAD direction.

USD/CAD’s multi week story remains the same as big breaks higher are located at 1.2841 and 1.2863. The 5 year average is positioned at 1.3009. CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF trade this week in perfect harmony.

The big move concept as reported last week is not only seen in EUR/USD and EUR cross pairs but in the 2 defining currency market pairs: USD/CAD and GBP/USD. From the 1.3036 and 1.2747 close, the spread factors 289 pips and is much to close.

Either GBP/USD and USD/CAD cross each other or the spread must widen to at least 500 to 600 pips. Normally 300 to 600 pips is fairly normal and 700 to 900 overbought which means the spread must compress. During Brexit for example, spreads were located at an extraordinary 1800 and 1900 pips. Either way GBP/USD and USD/CAD trades warns to a big move ahead.

To verify GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD, 1.9138 GBP/NZD as the highest exchange rate minus 0.6363 NZD/CHF as the lowest rate factors to 1.2775 and a mid point at 1.2750.

The overall big move concept is constituted every 2 years in currency markets as the distance between anchor pairs and cross pairs to reach its furthest peaks vs each other. The result is 300 and 600 pips trades as anchor pairs and cross pairs compress back to normal ranges.

Exactly 3 periods exist to every 2 year concepts. Either cross pairs must trade back to anchor pair ranges to normalize the relationship or anchor pairs must trade back to cross pairs to normalize the relationship. Trades are easy and big profits are earned quickly especially from longer term targets. The time factor is normally about 3 months to trade back to normalcy

The remainder period occurs when anchor pairs are trading in sync to cross pairs in normal traded markets.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Week 16 begins at 1875 pips however last week’s trade traveled off course. The trade as follows; Short 115.30 and 115.42 to target 114.59. USD/JPY traded to 117.26 or minus 184 pips. USD/JPY at worst should’ve held 116.06 but traded higher. The best I can find for USD/JPY to trade to such high levels is the 10 year average target at 117.14.

USD/JPY begins the week severely overbought and the plan of action is to add 1 lot to the current price to target at least 115.88. This offers +138 pips and 46 pips from the 115.42 entry from last week.

Last week was the 3rd time in 16 weeks USD/JPY traveled off course. Recall, off 80 abd 95 pips to entry to two trades. By addition of 1 lot, USD/JPY not only traded both lots to target but extra pips of 80 and 95 pips was added to the trade. We continue on to 2500 pips.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY, Day Trade Time Change, ACI

Week 15 and 1875 pips to USD/JPY’s weekly trades. Week 15 results run into the first problem. The trade as follows: Short 115.30 and 115.42 to target 114.59. USD/JPY now trades 116.74 and 132 pips off entry. USD/JPY for the week rose with EUR/USD but failed to drop when EUR/USD fell.

Now the question is what’s the next move. My recommended option is add 1 lot and trade to entry or to target. Trade to entry results in + 132 pips and exit the first lot. Trade to target results in 2 lots at +215 pips and 83 pips.

Remember 2 trades past when entry was off 80 and 95 pips. Both trades added 1 lot and both trades achieved target perfectly. The added lot was unexpected but the result was more pips to the week than expected. The best part was trading without losses.

If a loss was realized then week 16 begins at 1775 pips. If a voting public existed then I would accept a majority opinion but what I see is these articles achieve front page status for 10 minutes then discarded into the dungeon and lost to eternity.

Why bother posting articles is my question. The result is time lost and zero consequences and despite a huge huge following.

If I was in this 24 hour a day thing and living strange hours for followers then a psychiatrist is required. Subscriptions and assistance is the only offer. If either drops then I’m gone as I have many more passionate interests to pursue. Much is going on in my state legislature and a short distance to travel.

Far more gains and assistance exists to traders by youtube posts if I use my whiteboards to draw and teach many many concepts not known or understood in the written word. Plus I offer trades. The highlight this week so far is the GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/CAD relationships. The commonality is same supports levels yet different targets for 3 trade combos.

Overall, are we worried about 100 pips for USD/JPY when Sunday’s post highlighted long EUR/USD and EUR cross pairs. EUR/USD alone traded 200 pips higher as well as EUR cross pairs. The result is 1000 ish pips with ease.

The current 3 to 6 month period is a trading dream for massive profits. Remember posts from long ago in relation to long term targets. Every 2 years, currency prices are so far gone and off track, trade results to targets are in the 3 -6 and 800 pips vicinity. EUR/USD to 1.1300’s for example.

USD/JPY currently trades in the overbought richter scale and minimum target is located at 115.78 and 115.51. Think about this. Short Anywhere for next week as we are short anyway.

Next week’s time change means day trades run 9:30 pm est to 2:30 am est then 2:30 am to 10:00 am est.

Lastly, ACI for FX certification to the New Version exam exists in the United States but traders must travel to Cleveland. If a member of a trading firm then ACI works out a secure link through the firm to allow traders an opportunity to take the exam.

Independents such as me are in a bad position as $300 for the exam and travel expenses to Cleveland is not worth my trouble for certification. So far, I’m out to certification as this secure link option is not working well as of this writing.

Not only is Inside the Currency Market recommended as a study guide for the exam but I could write the exam questions. Que sera sera as they say in Barcelona.

Brian Twomey

New Day Trades and Profits

Day trades in the old days of pre 2016, allowed about 50 pips profit per currency pair. Trading life changed after 2016. Thanks to a friendly subscriber question, I’ve been hard at work looking at currency day trades because we are under yet another slowdown to prices. The same 30 to 50ish pips are available without a concept of loss.

Short continuation fail line to target the 1st price in the series. Long 2nd number from the bottom.

EUR/USD short from Continuation fail = 25 to 27 pips. Long 2nd number from bottom =28 to 30 pips.

USD/JPY Short CF Line =25 to 27 pips. Long 2nd number from bottom = 19 to 22 pips. USD/JPY is fairly permanent to profit pips.

GBP/USD Short CF Line – 25 to 27 pips. Long 2nd number = 25 to 27. Very balanced currency.

GBP/JPY 28 vs 28. Also very balanced currency pair.

EUR/JPY 16 to 24 and 16 to 24.

AUD/USD Short at CF = 14 pips. Long from 2nd number = 19 pips.

NZD/USD 9 to 13 and 9 to 13.

USD/CAD 16 to 23 and 16 to 23.

As was stated and shown over many years, I figured and factored to understand and implement in the simplest, easiest and most profitable manner.

Brian Twomey

SPX 500 and DXY

Last post to SPX was November/ December and the trade ran as follows: short 4700’s , 4600’s and target 3800’s. Targets as posted 4497.09. then 4268.80, 4032.75, 3859.03. Lows achieved 4122.35 for 500ish points.

The current December – March range is running from 4603.10 to 4122.35 or 480.75 points. September to December ran 4284.68 to 4802.90 or 518 points. Both 3 month ranges are running fairly consistent to historic 300 to 500 ish points to 3 month ranges and matches DXY.

DXY December – March 3 month range runs 472 pips from 94.69 to 99.41 and September to December ran 448 pips from 91.87 to 96.35.

SPX 3 month average currently factors as 4551.94 and a vital number for the next 2 months of trade. DXY 3 month averages is located at 96.74 and again a most crucial number to the overall DXY price path.

DXY trades dead in tiny ranges and no different than EUR/GBP. The function of DXY is to trade dead in small ranges as DXY serves its overall purpose as a most important anchor currency to every currency on the planet as well as stock markets, Gold and all commodities.

The factor to DXY is the range in relation to every financial instrument and a multiplication problem solved by a calculator. Gold for the past 3 months traded 1776.69 to 2022.54 and 2458 points or DXY X 5. NASDAQ is higher yet perfect while SPX runs together fairly consistently.

SPX trades a current range from 4392.42 to 3860.75. Above 4392 targets 4468.05, 4551.94 and 4600.65. Below 4392 targets 4219.19, 4184.19, 4032.57. 3989.63 3945.67, 3902.72.

Below 3860.75 targets 3762.21, 3649.79 and 3572.45.

The 5 year average is located at 3198.23. Current SPX at 4200;s is overbought across al averages and trade strategy is short to at least 4032.57 and 3989.63.

DXY is also overbought across all averages and a short only strategy. Targets are located at 98.14, 97.76, 96.73 and 95.86. Final target at 95.86 or 400 pips from current 99.00’s translates to EUR/USD 1.1200’s and 1.1300.

DXY 5 year average is located at 94.93 and a 12 pip drop from last DXY post about 3 months ago at 95.03. Averages are solid from 95.00’s to 94.00’s. DXY is best served as a market forecast tool rather than an actively traded financial instrument.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Weekly Trade, JPY Cross Pairs, AUD and NZD

From longer term perspectives, Currency markets for the next months are driven by EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR cross pairs. Deeply oversold EUR/USD achieved targets from 14, 10 and 5 year averages at 1.1174, 1.1111 and 1.0973. EUR/USD is now in preparation stages to achieve its target level at 1.1300’s. Longer term, EUR/USD targets 1.1478. How long.

EUR/USD broke below its 5 year average at 1.1490 in November and achieved target at 1.0973 in March or 4 months. EUR/USD traveled 129 pips per month in each of 4 months. To achieve the same 129 pips per month status on the upside, EUR/USD targets 1.1478 in 4.3 months.

Seasonally, EUR/USD traded correctly to its seasonal patterns from down months in November/ December and January. to last until May/June. Historically, EUR/USD completes 15 down months in January since 1999 and 8 months were up. EUR/USD now begins its slow ascent particularly when USD/JPY for April experienced 14 down months Vs 9 up months. April to USD/JPY movements depends on budget passage in the Japanese Diet.

AUD/USD trades 200 pips in well defined ranges from 0.7100’s to 0.7300;s, 0.7300’s to 0.7500’s and 0.7500’s to 0.7600’s at the top. Overbought AUD/JPY trades 80.00 to 84.84 however 82.84 must break to target 80.00’s. Overall, AUD/JPY trades 200 pip ranges to match AUD/USD.

EUR/JPY trades 124.78 to tops at 129.00’s. EUR/JPY’s big break is located at 126.53 and averages at 127.00’s to target 129.00.

CHF/JPY is held by 124.33 and 124.28 to target 119.00’s then to target 117.97. USD/JPY as the exact same currency pair trades in a similar situation as 114.60 and 114.44 must break to target 113.51 and 112.43 then 111.98.

No changes to GBP/JPY as leader of JPY cross pairs to trade 148.00’s to 157.00’s. For the week, GBP/JPY trades oversold.

NZD/USD trades 0.6700’s to 0.7000;s against vital breaks at 0.6909 and 0.6878. Overbought NZD//JPY targets lower levels at 77.61. Overall, NZD/JPY is held solidly at 75.00’s. CAD/JPY also targets about 100 pips lower.

Wide range currencies: EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and EUR/CAD target 3 to 500 pips higher. Best trades are EUR cross pairs. Targets will take time as averages are located along the price path.

No changes to GBP/USD as breaks are found at 1.3186, 1.3227, 1.3375, 1.3438 and 1.3562.

USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Week 15 begins at total +1875 pips. The last trade from Wednesday completed from 115.80 to 114.98. Entry was 115.97 and slight miss but target achieved.

Due to oversold EUR/USD as USD/JPY’s perfect opposite and USD/JPY’s position this week, multiple trades are offered.

Short 115.30 and 115.42 to target 114.59. Short below 114.44 to target 113.73. Long 113.73 to target 114.20. Or long 114.59 to target 114.93.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY, Russia Oil Imports, Next Week

Note USD/JPY and yesterday’s 4 numbers: 115.11, 115.40, 115.97 and 116.27. USD/JPY traded to 115.80 or between 115.40 and 115.97. Lows achieved 115.58 or between 115.40 and 115.97.

Yesterday’s day trade price moves fall in line with the new trade concept neutral to target. The complete day trade actually contained 1 trade for a total of 21 pips. To bank 21 pips, entry and target had to trade perfectly and knowledge of exact numbers was required. For the vast majority, no trade existed and a waste of 7 1/2 hours.

The new 2015 regulatory requirements to reserves and interest rate targets long ago entered a new phase to disrupt day trades but also to permanently wave good bye to the old ranges to traded markets and to welcome the dead currency and market price. Trading life as we once knew it is permanently gone.

If 2015 is not enough, central banks since 2018 have been working on the next latest concepts to the risk free interest rate. The ECB’s Eonia for example was once represented as the floor to ECB rates but Eonia was transformed to STIR as the top and risk free interest rate. The ECB and Europe central banks were always the radicals to central banks by adjusting normal market order to change to concepts to suit themselves. Today is no different.

The positive to yesterday’s day trade was the new weekly trade as short 115.97 to target 114.98. The day trade offered an entry at 80 and a miss yet an entry. Lows traded to 115.24 and +56 pips from 80. The day trade was employed to satisfy entry and target to the weekly trade. The low price yesterday was 115.11 to alert to 114.98 wasn’t trading yesterday which meant either exit for profits or remain to target 114.98 for an extra 13 pips.

Russia Oil Imports to United States

The Russian relations to imported oil as seen from the EIA data began slowly in the 1990’s with a 10 year total of 64,341,000 barrels. The United states placed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 invasion of Crimea. Weekly EIA data was blank since 2014 against zero imports.

Imports began again in October 2020 with 340,000 imported barrels. Since November 2020, Imports skyrocketed from 168,000 lows to highs August 2021 at 1, 350, 000 barrels. The weekly average since November 2020 factors to 603, 314 barrels.
Last week, 337,000 barrels were imported, 20,000 for January, 331,000 for December and 729,000 for November 2021.

As Biden assumed the presidency and eliminated oil independence to favor greens as Solar, wind and electric vehicles, he turned to Russia as a source for imports.

Overall, Canada ranks number 1 to Oil imports as this historic relationship remains solidified over many, many decades. The number 2 as Russia and 3rd as Mexico is a far distant 2nd and 3rd.

Next Week

Currency market focus is again on longer dated averages. EUR/USD for example satisfied its target at 1.1105 from the 5 year average. In play is the 10 year average and target at 1.0973. EUR/USD Lows achieved 1.1009 and 36 pips from target. EUR/USD remains deeply oversold on a long only strategy.

Concerning to AUD/USD is the break above the 5 year average at 0.7291 while NZD/USD just broke above its 5 year at 0.6827. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD are deeply overbought from lower averages. AUD and NZD cross pairs are deeply overbought.

The break above forced EUR/AUD to trade below its 10 year average at 1.5010. The positive is GBP/AUD faces solid supports at 1.8077 and 1.7998. Both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are deeply oversold.

EUR/NZD trades deeply oversold at 1.6100’s and targets easily 1.6400’s while GBP/NZD should stop the EUR/NZD slide lower as support exists at 1.9298.

JPY cross pairs achieved 100 pips lower as written Sunday. EUR/JPY is supported by 126.47, 126.27 and 125.91. GBP/JPY 151.07 and 149.82. Lower for AUD/JPY must break 84.43, NZD/JPY 77.01 and CAD/JPY faces no threats.

The trades moving forward are wide rangers GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD then EUR/CAD and EUR/USD.

Brian Twomey

Central Bank Reserve Requirements and USD/JPY weekly and Day Trades

The BOC raised from 25 to 50 yesterday. The message is Canada changed the operating interest rate band from 25 to 50 as the bank encompasses the overnight rate to headline from 25 to now 50. Where such interest rate operating bands are located is found in the new 2015 regulatory frame works for central banks to target interest rates and the operating bands to accommodate monetary policy.

The BOC’s number 50 is interesting as the historic operational band for Canada’s interest rates are 50 points. The question to raise or lower interest rates is found not in Swap rates or probabilities but in interest rates within the context of the interest rate bands. A raise is seen when interest rates are at lower bounds and lower when interest rates are at upper bounds of the operational bands.

Canada is strictly a market economy under a pure trading economy to its interest rates and financial instruments. The markets alone drives the BOC, interest rates and market financial instruments.

The reason for this is Canada lacks Reserve Requirements to bank and BOC relationships. The market, interest rates and market instruments settle end of day bank reserves everyday at 4 P.M. EST. The operational guide is Corra as Canada’s overnight interest rate.

Nations that raised interest rates are those nations that lack Reserve requirements such as RBNZ, BOE. The RBA and Sweden lack reserve requirements to banks and are next on the list to raise. The commonality is the market and interest rates settle end of day reserves.

The Fed contains a reserve requirement or better stated as a tax on reserves due to the settlement of end of day money not necessarily by the overnight rate and to reserve balances sitting in accounts and earning zero interest. Tax on reserves is a tax to bank customers as the tax is passed on. No reserve requirements nations force money movements and never to sit idle to allow money demands to be met.

The duration to operating bands are 35 days within the 35 day Maintenance period or central bank meeting to central bank meeting. Within operational bands are found Monetary Policy or the major Economic releases such as GDP, Inflation, Wages, Housing, Imports and exports.

Within the operational bands are found exchange rates and clearly focused by central banks like a lazar beam to ensure exchange rates don’t fall outside of the interest rate bands or economic releases. The interest rate bands is found the smarter option than to target exchange rates or QE since the bands are all encompassing to Monetary Policy.

The RBA and RBNZ are quite different yet unique to interest rate bands as both central banks employ Trade Ables vs Non trade Ables as operational bands. Everything interest rates, exchange rates and economic releases are found within the bands of Trade Ables Vs Non Trade Ables. An interest rate rise or fall is the context to interest rates in relation to its position within a lower or higher bound to Trade Ables to Non TradeAbles.

Since 2015, interest rate bands compressed as central banks perfected their respective systems by overnight rates and explains dead movements and ranges to today’s financial instruments.

Within the bands are concepts to borrow low and lend high but all accomplished within the bands to settle daily reserves. This is the managements side to central banks to manage money and liquidity. Deficits and surpluses are managed by adjustment to overnight rates rather than a charge to reserves to ensure zero balances. The end result is price stability, inflation targets or whatever is the overall and official policy of the particular central bank.

The BOC is in the process to revamp all calculations to its interest rates, operating bands and economic releases. Part of this new frame work is seen in yesterday’s message as no mysteries existed to the BOC as they knew exactly where they stand within their own policy goals in relation to other central banks.


To align to the original weekly trade on the 2nd leg as long 114.91 or 114.85 to target 115.30, we’ll take this trade and call it settled for the proper weekly count. Those that entered trades at 114.70 to target 115.34 have extra pips in their accounts.

From week 14 and 1830 pips, 45 pips is added from 114.85 to 115.30. Total is now 1875 pips. The next target at 2500 pips should realize within the next 3 to 4 weeks depending on movements. Then we work to 5000.

Day trade 4 numbers: 115.11, 115.40, 115.97 and 116.27.
New weekly trade. Short 115.97 and 116.01 to target 114.98.

Had it was known USD/JPY contained multiple weekly trades then all multiple trades would’ve posted. Note 114.97, 116.01, and 116.27. The new weekly trade is found within the context of the day trade. Above 115.97 if seen are extra free money pips to entries.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY Weekly and Day Trade

USD/JPY’s first leg of the weekly trade completed Monday for +92 pips and 14 week total at +1830 pips. The 2nd leg is in progress and here’s the trade as posted Monday.
USD/JPY long 114.77 and 114.64 to target 115.34. Results: Low 114.70 and highs 115.17 and +47 pips and running.

An alternative trade existed to long 114.91 or 114.85 to target 115.30. Highs achieved 115.28. Trade ran either +39 pips from 91 or 43 pips from 85.

Note the first trade short 115.82 and 115.95 to target 114.91. Lows achieved 114.85. Highs achieved 115.77 and 5 pips miss. Lows achieved 114.85 and 6 pips off target.

The 5 pips at the top had to compensate for at least 5 pips at the bottom target.

USD/JPY’s yesterday day trade and 4 vital numbers: 114.51, 114.79, 115.37 and 115.66.
Results Actual: 115.11 – 114.70. See 114.79 – 115.37 ? Yesterday’s 114.70 coincided to the 2nd leg trade at 114.77 and 114.64 and 1/2 the range at 114.71.

Today’s 4 numbers 114.51, 114.79, 115.37 and 115.66. Yesterday 114.51, 114.79, 115.37, 115.66.

Today’s day trade is the exact same trade as yesterday. In the last 24 hours, USD/JPY traded 114.70 to current 115.21 or 51 pips.

Note our profit for the 2nd leg trade +39 and +43 pips. We missed 11 and 7 pips from the total 51 yet profit was near 100% of the trade range.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY Day Trade and Priced In

For USD/JPY’s day trade today, only 4 numbers apply for longs and shorts as follows: 114.51, 114.79, 115.37 and 115.66. The day trade is good to 9:00 am Est then day trades and trading is over for the day.

The day trade informs to the age old market trading concept of “Priced In”. What exactly is Priced In? Today’s news and economic announcements are Priced In so no need to worry about the announcement but only focus on price. The price alone will inform to entries for longs and shorts. A traders concern is price not the announcement.

A central bank interest rate raise or lower is Priced In as well as any news or central bank announcements.

Priced In refers to any known markets events. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was Priced In. Not Priced In are outside events not known to the market price. This is the place and time when a market price must Price In the event by trading a few extra pips outside its range and generally to the next closest moving average. Not Priced In movements are the best free money trades.

Once the outside event is Priced In then the event no longer applies to the price as the event relegates to the known event and becomes Priced In. Russia and Ukraine peace talks was not priced In and explains Sunday’s gap open. Peace talks and discussions are now known inside the price and won’t contain the same reactions as Sunday’s open.

Is a cease fire decree Priced In? Probably not and this is the next unknown outside event to seriously become Priced In and requires a larger than normal movement.
What if the Fed calls an emergency meeting? A meeting of this high caliper is not Priced In nor the announcement to follow. A larger than normal move will be seen to Price In the results of the announcement.

A Fed or central speaker fails to move a price because all information is already known and Priced In to interest rate rises, QE, tightening. No mysteries exist to central bank scenarios.

The unknown would materialize if a central bank or speaker reveals unknown information. Inflation at high readings were unknown. Suppose GDP is expected at 4% but a speaker or central bank announcement reveals the next release will be 1%. This event is unknown and must be Priced In by a larger than normal movement.

The day and weekly trade offers normal prices with all possible known market events and scenarios covered inside the price. Today’s price movements are no different than movements from years ago as price reactions are the exact same. The only difference from yesterday to today is central banks slowed the price speed.

Inflation at 7% for example required a 20 or 50 pip move to Price In the announcement. In day’s of old, a 7% announcement required a 100 and 150 pip move. Nothing changed except size of movements.

Today begins a new month. In day’s of old trading and market moves required an adjustment to prices to factor new support and resistance levels because levels changed. Today, re factor to new levels is no longer required as last months results will factor the same as this month’s levels.

A market price requires at least a 300 to 500 pip and point move to re factor new targets and support and resistance levels. Note GBP/USD 1.3383 and 1.3449 for the past 1 and 2 months. Nothing changes these days to prices except the new speed of prices.

Brian Twomey