Yesterday’s action was again found in the center, most prominently by USD/CAD and USD/JPY. EUR/USD and NZD/USD took a vacation day to overall ranges. Due to US holiday? A market price doesn’t know or care about holidays. A price knows movements but never celebrations.

Daily moves

EUR/USD 62 pips
NZD/USD 37 pips.

EUR/USD and NZD/USD held the top and bottom in place while the center as USD/CAD and USD/JPY performed the best moves. Greatest moves for JPY cross pairs were EUR/JPY 140 pips, GBP/JPY 127 and CAD/JPY 115.

As a sidebar, GBP/CHF traded 79 pips and AUD/USD dead stopped at 0.7199. From Sunday, 0.7198 as first target achieved. For the many traders profited not only from 0.7199 but AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7155. All earned 44 of the 48 pips traded yesterday.

EUR/USD dead stopped at 1.0785 and as written Sunday, 1.0818 was not ready to break. The point at 1.0818 yesterday is today, 1.0823. A much harder road to break above and travel higher.

The question to 10 years of accuracy was submitted to the church’s Council of Miraculous Circumstances. The Council has a special section on markets and is made up of a group of men and one woman. All sit around in premium chairs all day watching screens and read forecast. How much to read is unknown as they also wear expensive clothes, smoke premium cigarettes and drink the best wine from the basement. The woman is on board to serve wine and light cigarettes.

Luckily the request was submitted early and was met with overall approval by voice vote. The Council further endorsed to the assistance to fellow brethren accounts but a warning to beware of trader claims of expertise and caution to the release of vital market knowledge to strengthen the hands of crooks, criminals and mediocre traders. We’ll continue and go with the voice vote.

EUR/USD vital levels and long points today are located today at 1.0713 and 1.0699. EUR/USD lows are matched to USD/JPY highs at 128.16 and 128.32. USD/CAD highs are located at 1.2698, 1.2706 and 1.2714. Strategy is short USD/JPY and USD/CAD highs and long EUR/USD.

Best trades today overall are EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and USD/JPY. Day and 24 Hour trades are accompanied with trade rankings, known and sent everyday around 4:30 ish along with SPX and WTI.

GBP/JPY lows today are located at 160.53 and 160.22 while EUR/JPY lows are found at 136.80 and 136.63.

Easily achievable are requests to fill African currencies from Kenya, Ghana and currencies from Bangladesh, Serbia, Egypt, and Ecuador. Filled as USD or any cross pair in the planet. We now have access to practically every nation’s exchange rates and cross pairs and able forecast trades.

Brian Twomey


GBP/USD”s main problem is found between the USD/CAD and USD/JPY relationship.
USD/JPY 1.2724
GBP/USD 1.2629
USD/CAD 1.2694.

The battle lines are drawn and its the fight in the center between middle currencies. Middle? Reverse exchange rates is best seen to the relationships.

EUR/USD 0.9302
USD/JPY 0.7861
USD/CAD 0.7878
GBP/USD 0.7916.
NZD/USD 0.6540.

2 sets of exchange rates exist and 2 separate trades: middle currencies Vs top and bottom as EUR/USD vs NZD/USD. The current paralysis between GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY is enough to stop dramatic movements to EUR/USD and NZD/USD. Most trades are found as middle currencies because of tendencies to create much distance from top and bottom counterparts.

See AUD/USD for example. AUD/USD traveled 100 pips higher from 0.7037 last Wednesday.

Last Wednesday’s lineup:

GBP/USD 0.8012
USD/CAD 0.7813
USD/JPY 0.7894.

AUD/USD was massively oversold against all counterparts.

Middle currencies are followers. A big EUR/USD move is always followed by GBP/USD in a delayed reaction the next day. Overall we have response Vs reaction.

A big GBP/USD move has 2 choices: either correct to meet its middle counterparts or EUR/USD and NZD/USD must respond. Overall normality or harmony must be found and settled between top and bottom Vs the middle.

Response Vs reaction is an interesting case as it relates to music as Call and response. High notes respond to low notes and low notes to high notes. Its the mode of travel to play a vast majority of songs in any genre. Musical notes meet in the middle after the call and response.

Ask the currency brokers why they set up exchange rates with vast distances. GBP/USD at 0.8012 = 1.2481, GBP/USD 0.8011 = 1.2482, GBP/USD 0./8013 = 1.2479. GBP/USD contains a built in differential of 2 pips. This 2 pips is low in relation to GBP/USD by 1 point exchange rates.

GBP/USD as 1 point exchange rates should be viewed as 4 pips to start vs an 8 pip maximum to satisfy day trades.

GBP/USD must first cross above USD/CAD then USD/JPY decides targets and /or where to take profits when satisfied. Ultimately, we want GBP/USD to cross above USD/JPY then GBP/USD is home free to travel massively higher. Or a higher USD/JPY makes GBP longs so much better. USD/JPY at 1.2800’s allows GBP/USD more breathing room to bank many more pips.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: Thank you, EUR/USD, GBP, AUD, NZD, SPX, WTI

An abundance of excellent comments was received last week in relation to analysis, trades, targets, profits, market, education and general commentary published over many years. My audience is eclectic and ranges from everyday retail and bank traders to portfolio managers, hedge funds, academics, central banks, currency analysts, governments, currency owners and partners, exporters, currency sales persons. The list is long, diverse and covers many nations within and across continents.

Typical is unique, excellent, many thank you’s, please continue. And this: Don’t underestimate all the work you’ve done and published over the years. It was solid information that was well thought out, unlike most of the noise out there.

I began as a one man band 18 years ago and remain the same solitary person today performing all the work by pen, calculator and stacks of note books. Topics were addressed as they hit markets from 2006/2008 trade by Charts, indicators, Ichimoku, OIS and interest rates in 2008 upon the market crash, 2012 Greek crisis, yields and yield spreads, EM currencies, money supplies, index creation. Topics are long, broad and well analyzed and researched for understanding, trader education and implications.

As the lightening bolt struck to economic announcements and central bank policy priced into market movements, work continues to streamline and factor day trades, weekly and long term to never watch screens, ease of trades and profits, multiple longs and shorts continuously, target to target trades.

Daily interest rate trades for example are now presented differently as trades run from target to target rather than an entry and exit for a few pips profit. Market prices are married to targets but also to target locations.

If I had my way, I would gladly publish my information to trades and profits but its impossible in today’s environment. If I had my way, I would start a conveyor belt to create profitable traders and as traders leave from profit satisfaction then new sets of trader to come on board. The conveyor belt never ends. And I would do it for practically nothing.

If I had my way, I would become your true currency analyst and again, for practically nothing. My ways are not in the cards so we continue the 18 year passion against continuing high energy levels to truly master the markets and prices.

Please accept my heartfelt thank you’s, my sincere gratitude, my overwhelming appreciation and God’s blessings to all friends, readers, subscribers and followers,

Thank you to the many unnamed persons at FXSTREET for your daily and long term service to traders around the world.

The week.

Last week’s focus was highlighted to the massive supports to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD. As a result, all traded higher but as our pairs traded higher, more supports were built into the price.

EUR/USD supports for example are located at 1.0730, 1.0662 and 1.0556. Higher must cross 1.0766 then monster break at 1.0818. EUR/USD has every ability to challenge 1.0818 this week but not break, yet. Overall range is located from 1.0556, 1.0583 to 1.0818. EUR/USD 1.0500’s are solid across the board. I don’t see a move back to 1.0300’s and not anytime soon.

GBP/USD’s big break remains 1.2790 and a long way to break. GBP/USD like EUR has every chance to break 1.2790 but not this week. In the way is 1.2726. Above 1.2726 and 1.2790 opens the flood gates to a higher GBP/USD in the 1.3000’s to 1.3200’s.

GBP/USD like EUR/USD is solid at 1.2563 and 1.2463 and 1.2400’s across the board. Good target this week is 1.2708. Deeply oversold GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD complies to GBP/USD higher. GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD are in buy drop mode to further assist GBP/USD.

AUD/USD broke 0.7155 and traveled to 0.7166 and current AUD/USD trades above with next targets at 0.7198, 0.7219 then 0.7243. Below AUD/USD is solid at 0.7063 and 0.7043. AUD/USD higher is the result of the break lower at the 5 year average at high 0.7200’sand target achieved at 0.6800’s.

NZD/USD begins the week in a horrible position. Low 0.6400’s remains strong supports and 0.6577 holds as main break for higher to target low 0.6700’s. NZD/USD position reflects the same neutral yet horrible positions to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.

Recall EUR/NZD target at 1.6500’s from 1.5900 lows. Took a few weeks but mission accomplished. Watch NZD/USD this week at 1.6451 and supports across the board at 1.6300’s and 1.6200’s.

JPY Cross Pairs

JPY cross pairs short this week offers best trade opportunities beginning with GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY then CAD/JPY as the best 3 currency pairs. Note GBP/JPY closes over the past 4 weeks: 160.45, 159.79, 158.42, 160.99 and 161.27. Not much to JPY cross pairs except trading around ranges without significant breaks. WHY JPY cross pairs is to trade the wide and massive ranges as best trade profits.

No changes to USD/JPY and USD/CAD from Thursday’s post.


DXY sits on strong and solid supports at 101.00’s and 100’s and explains why EUR/USD will struggle to break 1.0800’s. DXY above must break 102.26, 102.94 then 103.23, below 101.62 then 100.81.


SPX ranges expanded from 700 points at 4800 to 4100’s to now 4800 to 3800 or 1000 points. Ranges now hold at 4016, 4063 to 4318. Each must break to target lower or higher prices.


WTI sits from 114’s above to 111’s below. Each must break to target lower or higher prices.

Overall markets this week trade normally, in ranges and without dramatic moves to break significant averages.

Brian Twomey


EUR/USD big break is now located 1.0816, NZD/USD at 0.6575 and NZD/CHF 0.6292. EUR/USD trades currently within 72 pips to its break, NZD/USD 65 and NZD/CHF 43 pips. Required for non USD pairs is any of the 3 pairs to break higher. If EUR/USD trades first then NZD/CHF and NZD/USD automatically follow. If NZD/USD and/or NZD/CHF travels first then EUR/USD will automatically follow.

EUR/USD and NZD/USD are Non USD leaders as top and bottom currencies by exchange rate numbers and falls under the category of market structure. Its impossible for EUR/USD to trade below NZD/USD or NZD/CHF and impossible for NZD/USD and NZD/CHF to trade above EUR/USD. By the brilliance of central bank design.

The problem to the vital breaks at 1.0816 and 0.6575 NZD/USD is rising lines and rising prices. Correct is falling averages and rising prices. This situation ensures EUR/USD and NZD/USD will trade above and continue higher.

For EUR/USD and NZD/USD to break higher requires a market development such as an off snyc economic announcement to push EUR and NZD above the averages. Unless te averages stop rising and drop or remain stable.

If EUR/USD or NZD fails to break vital points then both will trade a deep dive in a long red candle. This means we remain bound to a long only strategy to again challenge whatever averages materialize as 1.0800’s EUR/USD and 0.6500’s for NZD/USD.

On a EUR/USD or NZD/USD break higher then AUD/USD’s rising line at current 0.7152 will break higher, sustain and AUD/USD travels easily to high 0.7200’s and low 0.7300’s.
If EUR/USD and /or NZD/USD breaks higher then oddball currency GBP/USD must cross above vital 1.2789.

Currently GBP/USD as the traditional laggard currency will break higher so uniformity exists to EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD.

Possibly why rising lines exist to EUR, NZD and AUD is to allow laggard GBP/USD to trade higher and catch up to its counterparts. Uniformity is vital to markets and prices. But this situation is not unusual and seen many times before especially as it applies to GBP/USD.

GBP/USD suffers the effects to the 1960’s re number to the exchange rate as it now trades above EUR/USD. The 1960’s was only 30 years since the trade wars of the 1930’s so the French Franc, GBP/EUR or GBP/DEM then and USD positions had to factor to the correct exchange rate number.

Best part to the 1930’s trade wars was GBP vs French Franc as the French employed every effort to destroy GBP and created bitter enemies over many, many decades. See Gold Wars for a play by play to a fascinating story.

Overall, EUR/USD and NZD hold a do or die position. Much higher or much lower and it must be either/or as principles of Moving averages.

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week

EUR/USD bottom yesterday at reported 1.0638 traded to 1.0641 then longs to 1.0686 and perfect to the prescribed day trade time end at 10: am est. The 24 hour trade then dominates multiple longs and shorts for the next 6 to 7 hours. Yesterday’s 6 to 7 hour range traded 43 pips. Once the Fed releases interest rates then the game is pretty much over as ranges, supports and resistance points must re factor.

SPX traded 100 ish pips or 2X EUR/USD while WTI traded 1.63 points or actual traded nothing.

Best moves and best trades for maximum profits is at the start to any trade and applies to any financial instrument.

USD/JPY from Sunday’s post, solid resistance at 128.00 and 129.00’s. USD/JPY dropped this week from 128.08 to 126.00 lows. USD/JPY bottom side for next week is contained across the board at 125.00’s then vital 124.50. Next week range is located at 300 pips from 125.00’s to 128.00, 129.00.

GBP/JPY traded this week 289 pips from 161.00 to 157.00. The larger 1000 pip range is located from 148.00 to 168.00. Big break for lower is found at 158.96 however massive supports exist from 156.00 to 157.00’s.

EUR/JPY is the next leader to JPY cross pairs and replaced CAD/JPY for number top position. CAD/JPU also sits on massive and many supports from 96.00’s to 97.00’d against a big break at 97.51. Same story to EUR/JPY as vital break is located at 134.39 and much supports at 133.00’s to 132.00’s. Bottom supports for GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY are located at extremes and expected to hold next week.

CAD/JPY longs could trade easily to 100.00’s from current 98.00’s, EUR/JPY to 137.00’s, GBP/JPY to 162.00’s. Moves are expected at fairly normal trading especially as USD/JPY short ranges are containing JPY cross pairs from extreme or explosive moves.
EUR/JPY longs to 137.00’s informs automatically EUR/CAD to 1.3800’s from current 1.3600’s.

EUR/USD vital break is located at 1.0809 and current EUR/USD remains deeply oversold from 1.0500’s. Longs for next week to 1.0778 then 1.0793 to then challenge 1.0809. EUR/USD 300 pips are located from low 1.0500’s to 1.0800’s.

GBP/USD supports at 1.2300’s remain strong and solid. No difference from this week’s FX weekly post. Long targets to low 1.2800’s are at extremes. Range should located from 12300 to 1.2700’s.

NZD/USD big break at 0.6562 is now 0.6572. NZD/USD for RBNZ traded deeply oversold from low 0.6400’s to 0.6513 or 80 pips. Despite an 80 pips move, NZD/USD failed to break significant averages.

RBNZ 50 pip OCR change and NZD/USD 80 pip range is consistent to USD/CAD and BOC as well as GBP/USD and BOE. A 50 point change is valued at 80 pips and 30 pips more than normal 50.

Central bank announcements next week are known today and will be found within the expected 300 ish pip ranges for next week’s currency pairs as we head into a fairly normal trade week.

Brian Twomey

The Currency Price, Trade Ranking, EUR/USD, SPX, WTI, Brent

As written yesterday, GOLD achieved 1862 and actual 1864. SPX 3890 and actual 3873. WTI 108.55 and actual 108.65. EUR/USD 1.0721 and 1.0731 and actual 1.0745. Actual 1.0745 factored within the normal day trade time frame. USD/JPY downside targets 127.04 and 126.91. Actual at the end of day trade time 126.35. A breakout?

Current USD/JPY 127.19 and USD/CAD 1.2830 or 111 pips. Nothing changes in the relationship except distance as both remain the same exact currency. USD/JPY is the leader for now against 2 separate entries and targets.

EUR/JPY downside supports = USD/CAD 1.2830 and further down GBP/CHF at 1.2060. All are the same pairs except different numbers. And results to 1.2812 and 1.3198 as USD/CAD and EUR/JPY. Technically, GBP/CHF supports are found by EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY upside is tracked by EUR/CAD at 1.3700’s. EUR/JPY upside targets are EUR/CAD.

The currency price is not only the smallest price to every financial instrument on the planet but its the forecast to every financial instrument. A normal currency price offers the same normality to every financial instrument on the planet.

Note this EUR/USD price. 1.0671. Why is the 1 shown before the decimal point. If EUR/USD is arranged as 0671 or 0.0671 then EUR/USD offers the same exact forecast with 1 included or not. Exclude the 1 makes life easier to deal with smaller numbers.
Next Generation Trades

Normal day trades by interest rates run 7 1/2 hours and for the most part appear as the dominant trade but never with absolute certainty. Note EUR/JPY today 136.15 Vs 135.72. EUR/JPY traded so far today to 135.45 and a guaranteed 27 pips so far today. Longs will eventually dominate to profit from longs and possibly more shorts.

To exclude 7 1/2 hours, then 16 1/2 hours remain to trade. Now we have interest rate trades X 2 to profit from the remaining 16 hours of trade from the same multiple longs and shorts as any trade.

Not only is this whole system perfect but its accurate to the perfection of all platforms as platforms are factored to statistics. USD/JPY’s extra bonus pips yesterday and rare day was due from the ECB at 10. The extra pips didn’t matter as plenty of profits was earned already at 126.91. Extra pips days are rare but when seen, its derived by central banks who don’t ever play a fair game.

Extra pips days are never derived from a trader, hedge fund or Warren big mouth Buffet as these people don’t have a clue what they say or do. Sorry to keep harping on this point. The platform is the driver and not any trader money.

The driver to the platform is normality. And for at least 44 weeks to every year, normality dominates. At most 8 weeks to every year, normality is threatened by skewed prices. Non normality is usually seen in the spring from March to May.

A market price maybe volatile but 2 types of volatility exists. Good volatility such as the 2019 Brexit vote when prices traded far and wide yet perfect. Then bad volatility such as oversold to more oversold or overbought to more overbought.

Best trades today from day trade line ups are USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and GBP/CHF.

EUR/USD Bottoms today are located at 1.0638 then long.


If SPX continues its losing ways then next stop is located at 3856 and WTI at 107.96 Vs Brent 108.33.

Weekly Trade Rankings




Brian Twomey


Exxon as written yesterday, upside target 94.38, actual 94.51. Call it perfect from 92.00’s and +2 Points. Today target 95.38 then short to target 94.81.
Exxon is termed a stock because it trades on a stock exchange. Exxon defined is a number like any market number. All market prices contain a number and this is all one requires to know.

EUR/USD as written yesterday achieved target at 1.0661 and actually traded to 1.0696 for an extra 35 pips. EUR/USD big break for higher is located at 1.0793. Today’s tops and short entries are located at 1.0721 and 1.0731. On the bottom side targets are 1.0654, 1.0640 and 1.0631.

USD/JPY traded 91 pips yesterday vs USD/CAD 77. USD/JPY bottom targets are located at 127.04 and 126.91 then long. USD/CAD bottom target 1.2745 1.2739 then long. USD/JPY upside targets are located at 128.27 and 128.32 then short.

We’re perfecting the next generation to any market trade. Once entered, then trades run from target to target continuously for multiple longs and shorts.

USD/JPY and USD/CAD are the exact same pair and will trade together as one unit for the future until a breakout occurs.

2 year yield yesterday traded 2.64 to 2.59 or 5 points. 2.64 as reported last week is the average and a vital break. The 10 year yield traded 2.87 to 2.79 or 7 points Vs its big break at 2.94.

Here’s the RBNZ preview. Read Milton Friedman and his wife Rose. Milton Friedman holds every economic answer from this day to antiquity. The basic premise to Friedman is reduce taxes, regulations and government spending for nations to prosper. Governments today follow the opposite path as prosperity is leaving nations by design or stupidity. My answer is design.

The RBNZ trade is NZD/USD and EUR/NZD for multiple longs and shorts.

Gold targets 1862 on the high side. Gold and Silver isn’t worth anybody’s effort. The bond/yield story holds GOLD and Silver to tiny 6 point ranges. Until a breakout is seen to yields and bonds then Gold and Silver remain dead trades.

WTI next stop 108.55 and SPX 3890.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Charts

Here’s EUR/USD and GBP/USD charts. What the heck are these people looking at, trading and forecasting as Nothing exists to trade or forecast. Charts as I mentioned many times are a scam and will lead traders to total destruction. As it did me many years ago as a beginner.

Trading requires a strategy, a true strategy. Nothing else matters. The overall numbers averages to the closing price. So what good are the charts. Now go back and look at forecasts from your leading FX names, website contributors and crooked websites to promote these people. Its all crooked. How about education? What can chart people teach you? Nothing cause they don’t know themselves.



Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD, DXY, USD, Exxon Mobil

The commonality to currency markets is the battle lines are drawn between non USD pair prices sitting on massive and solid supports while USD as in DXY, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD broke below and sit against solid resistance points.


Massive supports are located at high 1.0400’s. Higher prices must break 1.0788 then 1.1300’s are easily achievable. EUR/USD 1.0400’s vs 1.0700’s factors a normal 300 pip range. The month is May and the EUR/USD season is upon us for EUR/USD to begin its advance higher.

EUR/USD dropped 1200 pips since the 5 year average break in December 2021. January, February and March, EUR/USD averaged monthly drops at 300, 389 and 295. April was EUR/USD best month at a 600 pip drop. Overall, EUR/USD averages about 390 pips per month.

EUR/USD weekly target is located at 1.0661 and just ahead of the vital 1.0700’s break.


EUR/USD 1.0700 break is matched by DXY vital supports at 102’s and 101.00’s. DXY current drop is the result from 105.00’s and reported weeks ago. DXY trades below EUR/USD high 1.0400’s supports.

DXY range trades 300 pips from 102 to 105.00’s.

GBP/USD is solid at 1.2300’s supports and next break is located at 1.2700’s as the range runs 400 ish pips from 1.2300’s to 1.2700’s. Break below 1.2300’s targets again 1.2100’s.

AUD/USD approaches its big break at 0.7141 to then target 0.7200’s. Above 0.7141 then the range shifts from 0.7141 to 0.7300’s. AUD/USD 0.6900’s for the week are solid supports and long is the only trade.

NZD/USD 0.6562 is the big line break for higher. Current range is located at 300 pips from 0.6200;s to 0.6500’s.

USD/JPY must clear 128.00’s and 129.00’s resistance points for any chance higher. USD/JPY big break lower must clear 124.00’s and matches EUR/USD at 1.0700’s. Both break points are game changers to the USD V Non USD relationship to solidify a wider division from non USD to USD.

USD/CHF at 0.9700’s must clear 0.9800’s then 1.0100’s and 1.0200’s. Note DXY supports at 101.00’s and 102.00’s vs USD/CHF. Current USD/CHF range is located from 0.9626 to 0.9800’s or 200 pips.

As written months ago, the USD/CHF V DXY relationship will trade 300 pips from each other and long into the future. Current USD/CHF and DXY spreads 278 pips. No changes expected into the future.

USD/CAD trades between overall vital points at 1.2300’s Vs above at 1.2980. Watch 1.2777 for weekly longs and shorts.

JPY Cross Pairs

GBP/JPY is the clear leader to JPY cross pairs followed by CAD/JPY. EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CHF/JPY are clear followers. GBP/JPY trades within a smaller range from overall 148.00’s to 168.00’s.

USD Yields

USD yields from 3 month to 30 year trade just below vital averages. Overall currency, stock and commodity markets are at vital points due to yield location in relation to overall market prices.

Yields are trading fairly dead currently and this dead movement forces commodity prices to attach to FX pairs and trade at high positive correlations. Correlations should run negative as in DXY vs WTI

Markets require yield movements to re align commodity and FX prices correctly.


SPX next short target is located at 3740.

Exxon Mobil

Trades Monday from target to target at 94.38 and 89.61 and low for the week at 87.54.

Brian Twomey

Bonds V Yields, Yield Spreads and Currency Price

A currency price and currency pair is arranged as either a yield or bond and represents the currency price connection to interest rates. USD as DXY, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF trade by the US bond price. This is what it means as safety of the USD currency. Non USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are connected and trade by yields.

The overall connection is Bond Vs Yield. Both are reflections of the same financial instrument except for different numbers. As Bond prices trade higher then yields fall. As Yields rise then bond prices fall.

A yield is considered a risk asset compared to the safety of the bond. Safety of the bond means holders of the bond will be paid no matter what happens as bonds are guaranteed by governments.

Notice the 2008 crash. USD currencies skyrocketed higher. What traded higher was the bond price. Non USD currencies fell as a result of falling yields. Exclude the extreme crash example, the same situation trades today and every market trading day only on a much smaller scale.

Notice the yield lineup and expansion by the 1 year yield. Also note all yields from the 3 month to 30 year all trade just below vital averages. Early warming to big moves ahead as the opposite bond price is also at vital levels. The lineup is constructive to yield spreads.

3 month 1.05, 0.9201
1 year 2.12, 2.07
2 year 2.64

3 Year = 2.87,
5 year = 2.93, 2.94.
7 year = 2.97, 3.01.

10 year = 2.9450, 3.0135.
20 year = 3.33, 3.47.
30 year = 3.12, 3.13..

The overall yield curve now runs 2.66 as opposed to 2.73 from yesterday’s view from 2 year to 30. Yesterday’s 66 point to possible movements is today 65 and no difference. Possible ranges and movements hold constant as yields against a +97 correlation move together as one unit.

Trading ranges expand for every higher yield. The 20 and 30 year yields trade wider ranges than the 2 year. The purpose to assign yield numbers is to hold the entire yield curve constant as one unit.

The 10 year yield dropped to 2.78 yesterday then rose to 2.91 and just prior to vital levels at 2.94 and 3.01. The overall path traded from 2.91 to 2.78 then higher to 2.91 again. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0464 then higher to 1.0606. The 10 year yield rise from 2.78 to 2.91 and completed in 12 hours while EUR/USD traded from 1.0464 to 1.0606 in 12 hours.

Same rise story to GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD but the opposite story to USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

USD/CHF likewise fell from 0.9865 to 0.9694, USD/JPY from 128.94 to 127.02, DXY from 103.88 to 102.66, USD/CAD 1.2858 to 1.2781.

BOND Vs Yield Relationship

The 10 year bond price from 2.84 traded a range from 2.83 to 2.87, the yield from 2.78 to 2.91 and a 4 to 13 point relationship. Yields are mispositioned to the bond price and this is the point where markets will see its greatest moves as yields must reposition lower. The misposition is seen in spreads.

The 3 leaders of the entire market trading bloc yesterday was DXY, bonds and yields.
Yield Spreads

Note the long end 20 to 30 and 21 point spread, 10 to 20 at 38 points, while the 7 year is mispositioned to the 10 and 5 year yield. The 3 to 5 year holds a 6 point spread and 23 points to 2 vs 3 year. Market volatility and price paths is seen from the lower end of the yield curve.

Correct is higher yields hold wider ranges, shorter at the low end and the longer end is the driver to market prices. A market price starts small then rises higher and wider ranges as the price rises up the yield curve.

Short EUR/USD is automatically understood as short yields or long EUR/USD as yields rise but also note currency pairs are arranged as opposites. EUR/USD = Yield/ Bond, USD/JPY = Bond/Yield,


DV01 answers what is the dollar value of a basis point. As highlighted in Inside the Currency Market 11 years ago, DV01 is the average absolute price change of Treasury securities to a 1 basis point increase ore decrease in yield to maturity.

The formula: Change is absolute value with 1 basis point/ divide by change in absolute value with 1 basis point./ 2.

Seen and factored is the bond price yield relationship and used daily to trade bonds and yields.

Brian Twomey

Yesterday’s Targets, Yields and the Yield Curve

Yesterday’s prices contained the potential to trade dead or explode such as the EUR/USD on Tuesday. No middle ground existed to yesterday’s potential as the choice was either / or. The market choice was trade dead as the S&P’s traded 40 points, 6 points for WTI.

Yesterday’s targets achieved destinations. WTI Achieved Target 107, Brent Achieved target 110.

SPX Achieved Target 4034 while NASDAQ Achieved Target at 111703.00.
EURUSD Target 1.0587 and highs at 1.0568.

Yield Curve

The yield curve from a day trade perspective is a symphony with movements at a basic 6 points. Anymore than 6 points is a bonus and a free money trade. Yields includes the 3 month as the 3 month yield is no different than the 2 year, 10, 20 and 30. Its a vital component to the overall yield curve.

As yields progress throughout the week, the count changes from 6 – 29 points or an average at 17 points. Above 17 points includes only the 20 and 30 year yields. Yields are married into 1 symphony orchestra as correlations between and among yields correlate +97%.

The total yield curve runs at 2.73 with the highest potential to move overall about 66 points. The long end at the 20 and 30 yields contains the greatest movements to the overall 66 curve. The overall curve may split at 33 points to cover 3 month to 10 year then 20 and 30’s.

Interested may view for many examples to yield spread analysis between nations, how to factor yields to currency prices and to forecast currency prices from yields. Europe and negative rates is factored and transformed as well for the EUR/USD.

ts simple math by using a calculator but all worked out in detail and shown. Yields most vital for USD/JPY are 2, 3, 5 and on rare days, the 7 year yield. The number 7 is a bible number and a vital constant to markets, financial instruments and prices. For USD/JPY, the 7 purpose is to act as resistance.

The current 10 year to 3 month spread is most vital to forecast and view the domestic interest rate. Current spreads run 1.88 and a good target for the FED’s continued raise campaign.

The 10 year to 2 runs 2.80, then 20 to 2 runs 3.06 and 0.46 to the 30 and 2 year. Overall spread runs 0.46 to 1.88 and 0.46 to 3.06 on the high side. Current 0.46 is built in for support from current 1.0.

The current Effective Fed Funds rate runs 0.83 and another raise places the effective rate at 1.08 for a 50 point raise and 0.95 for a 25 point raise.

Yields Vital Points

2 year = 2.64, 2.65
3 Year = 2.87,
5 year = 2.93, 2.94.
7 year = 2.97, 3.01.
10 year = 2.9450, 3.0135.
20 year = 3.33, 3.47.
30 year = 3.12, 3.13.

Brian Twomey

Targets: EUR/USD V DXY, WTI V Brent, SPX V Nasdaq

SPX achieved target at 4068 then not written was the reversal from 4068. Overall, SPX was a 50 ish point trade from the very basics. Multiple longs and shorts for the day offered more points.

NASDAQ target achieved at 11943 then the reversals.
Both the S&P’s and NASDAQ traded lower direct to supports at 111 and 109.
WTI target at 114.00’s traded to 113.20 and a miss by 0.8.
Brent’s target at 116.00 traded to 115.52 and a miss by 0.4.

Day Trades

Expected today is a “funny” price day and derived from the USD side to DXY, WTI and stock markets. An example is seen from yesterday’s EUR/USD. Yesterday’s USD side operated normally. “Funny” will derive from SPX and WTI as drivers.


SPX targets 4105 and NASDAQ 12040. On the low side, SPX targets 4034 and NASDAQ 11703.
WTI Vs Brent

WTI targets back to 114.00;s at 114.35 and Brent 116.86. On the low side, WTI targets 107 and Brent 110.01.


Today’s USD Vs EUR battle to market excitement is seen from EUR/USD 1.0491 Vs DXY 103.73. EUR/USD trades 16 pips from 91 and DXY 7 pips. DXY could offer easily 104.40’s and EUR/UDD 1.0390’s or EUR/USD trades to 1.0587 and DXY upper 102.00’s. The EUR/USD Vs DXY contention will materialize in the fate of WTI and SPX.

Brian Twomey


Oil commentary is delivered as supply, demand, OPEC, driving season, not driving season, Heavy Vs Light Sweet, Canada, Oman, every nation on the planet, Inflation, No Inflation..
Once traders are complete reading commentary, they don’t have a clue to the most important aspect: The Oil price. Same principle as central bank commentary in relation to currency prices. They report every last theory without data or facts and traders render their own judgement to prices.

The Oil Price = Oil price. If the Oil price rises then all oil prices around the world rises. If the Oil price falls then all oil prices fall. Same principle as stock markets. Stock markets and oil are the exact same financial instrument. The only difference is the assigned price number to the instrument. Don’t complicate the uncomplicated.

Markets were designed for simplicity to profit and for investment purposes. This requires price knowledge but doesn’t necessarily require the theoretical aspects as this becomes a game of guess, speculation and chance.

Same old market story, a price only cares about a price. The hardest part to master is the price and gazillions of ways existed to find the answers over decades.

WTI Vital levels 104.85, 108.32 and 111.79

Brent Vital levels 117.78, 112.82, 107.87, 106.12, 102.55.

WTI lifted from 102.55 last week.

WTI rose 12 points last week, 6 point rise for Brent.

Today’s WTI target is 114. Brent’s current price is 114 and targets 116. Brent sits comfortably above vital 111.00’s and WTI at 109.00’s. Lower for Brent targets 107.00’s and 104.00’s for WTI. Brent and WTI share about a 3 point relationship. Both are the same financial instruments.

Higher Brent assists EUR/USD higher at +80% correlations.

S&P’s and Nasdaq

Must break for the S&P’s is 4015 to target 4063. Failure targets 3968. Nasdaq higher targets 11943, lower targets 11422.59.


Higher for EUR/USD must break 1.0801. Lower levels to parity 102.60, 1.0133, 1.0106 then 1.0029.
EUR/USD 1.0400’s is a phantom number and 400 pips lower from the 1.0800 target from the 1.1500’s break at the 5 year average. Phantom numbers over years are historically good for maximum 600 pips and equates to EUR/USD 102.00’s.

EUR/USD target today is 1.0456. USD/CAD 1.3016,

Brian Twomey

DXY V WTI, Brent V EUR/USD and EUR/USD Forecast

In yet another historic market phenomenon, WTI traded above DXY in each of the last 3 months for the first time since 1999 / 1998 and DXY introduction. Historic is the misposition of WTI.

When WTI crossed above DXY at the crucial DXY 96.00’s then WTI was destined to travel higher. Once WTI crossed above, correlations changed to DXY and WTI trading as the same exact financial instrument. WTI traded 12 points higher last week to 110.00’s in comparison to 166 pips to DXY to achieve 105.07 highs.

As WTI traded and approached DXY exchange rate levels then correlations strengthened from +66% 3 months ago to current +86%. WTI is currently the higher price however exchange rates were the first financial instruments 2000 years ago and always leads newly formed instruments constructed in the modern day.

From monthly averages to 5 years, DXY and WTI are massively overbought. DXY remains above the many months long 95.00’s and 96.00’s and a break lower signifies a wholesale trend change. WTI is massively overbought from crucial averages at 84.60, 67.08, 60.70 and 60.49.

The commonality is DXY 95.00’s and 96.00’s Vs WTI 84.00’s as the closest breaks. Until breaks lower at least at 84.00’s are seen in WTI then the risk is gas prices remain elevated for longer periods and Inflation’s residual effects stay higher.

DXY lower must trade to 100.32, 99.15, 98.86, 98.09 while WTI must trade to 99.59, 89.04, 82.24 and 80.01. The WTI crossover below occurs at 99.00’s. WTI next breaks above are located at 104.85, 108.32 and 111.79. DXY above next breaks are found at 105.60, and 107.06.

Crucial breaks to trend aren’t expected anytime soon.

EUR/USD Vs Brent Oil

As markets are natural reflections of each other, its instinctive for Brent to trade above EUR/USD for the past 2 months in monthly average terms and for the first time in the 1999 /1998 EUR/USD and Brent relationship. Brent’s proper location is to trade below EUR/USD as much as WTI must trade below DXY.

The WTI and Brent relationship to exchange rates are severely off kilter. Brent is overbought and must trade lower while EUR/USD is oversold and must trade higher. In the WTI Vs DXY relationship, both DXY and WTI are overbought.


EUR/USD at 1.0400’s is a price that doesn’t exist and dating to almost 20 year monthly averages while DXY at 104.00’s also doesn’t exist. The EUR/USD and DXY relationship must compress by EUR/USD higher and DXY lower.

EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD at minimum must trade to easily 1.0900s then 1.1000’s, 1.1100’s, 1.1200’s. EUR/USD brick wall is located at 1.1400’s and 1.1500’s.

Bloomberg Forecast

EUR/USD 1.0900’s is a phantom number so then how could EUR/USD possibly trade to parity or a consideration to parity. Highly improbable and another warning not to trust Bloomberg nor imbecilic money managers as they are glorified retail traders speculating and gambling.

USD/JPY Vs USD Trade Weight Index

USD/JPY is tracking perfectly to the Fed Trade Weight Index.

SPX 4023 V EUR/USD 1.0400;s Vs DXY 104.00’s. SPX requires a deep investigation.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs DXY: An Historic Day is Upon Us

EUR/USD and DXY as the two most important currency pairs in currency and all markets. Here’s present exchange rates EUR/USD 1.0406 Vs DXY 104.64. As like decimals, 1.0406 Vs 1.0464. This development is historic and may never be seen again in our lifetimes. EUR/USD crossed below DXY. Explains why EUR/USD went beserk yesterday.

Since 1999 and EUR introduction and from monthly averages, I don’t see another instance when EUR/USD traded below DXY. DXY above 100 occurred last for 3 months in 2017, once in 2016 and 2015. Then from 1999 to 2002.

In 276 months since 1999, DXY traded above 100 in 45 months. DXY achieved its highest high January 2002 at 120.59 and lows at 72.00’s. DXY 3 big lines exist at 103.71, 100.79 and 96.00’s.

Targets for DXY if complete, occurs at 105.60, and 107.06. Both are at extremes. If ever DXY and EUR/USD crossed then the only time is from 1999 to 2002. DXY at 105 and 107 takes EUR/USD to near parity and close to its 0.9900 introduction, although 0.9900’s was a fleeting instance as EUR/USD skyrocketed to 1.0300’s and 1.0700’s within 2 months.

To 1999 prices was the beginning of DXY and 1996 online currency trading, I believe FXCM was the first yet market sizes to trading was small and prices varied far far and wide then. The internet replaced the Teletype price feed from New York as the centralized repository to prices.

My estimation the feed from New York remains today to plug and align prices into various platforms.

EUR/USD’s proper place is trade above DXY. Prior to EUR/USD as USD/DEM or the German Deutschemark. EUR/USD at 1.0400’s translates as USD/DEM today at 1.8500’s and above DXY. Far and wide price trading was the result of EUR/USD transferred to DEM and DXY introduction. A truly new day existed since 1999.

While 96.00’s represents DXY’s historic levels, EUR/USD’s 23 year historic line is located 1.2112. Both DXY and EUR/USD not only achieved furthest distance but DXY is massively overbought and aligns to massive oversold EUR/USD.

In the Bloomberg Survey of 400 participants, 250 or slightly more than 1/2 forecast EUR/USD at parity. A vast majority forecast 1.1500’s from parity. My forecast to 1.1300’s holds and just below the 5 year average at 1.1500’s. Note my forecast to 400 ish money managers.

What money managers and my forecast are imparting is the trade of the decade is upon us.

Brian Twomey


USD/CAD wins the week long currency market battle for USD supremacy. Written yesterday USD/CAD support at 1.2881. The USD/JPY and USD/CAD roles reverse as USD/JPY supports are located at 129.08, 128.90, and 128.66. Previously USD/CAD 1.2908, 1.2890 and 1.2866.

Currency pair role reversals are most specifically seen in exchange rate cross overs and mathematically by Simple Regression Lines. USD/JPY for example may sit on the bottom of a Regression line and EUR/USD on top but eventually roles reverse as EUR/USD will eventually sit on the bottom and USD/JPY on top.

Bottoms and tops can only travel so far until the roles begin reversals. Found in the nature of the exchange rate relationships but seen early in Regression Lines to allow preparation for long term trades.

As written yesterday, USD/CAD bottoms 1.2929 and traded to 1.2923. Specifically, 1.2985 broke below and traded 50 pips lower. USD/JPY bottom at 129.57 traded to 129.43.

SPX achieved yesterday’s reported bottom at 3930, WTI achieved tops at 105.45, bottoms at 98.66 and GBP/JPY as written Sunday broke below 159.95 to 158.81 for 100 quick pips. GBP/JPY now trades 157.43.

Unique to Brian Twomey and trading is consistency to targets and profits as I maintained both for 10+ years. Targets and profits are yesterday’s news as today’s money interests to markets are more concerned with profits from extra curricular activities.

Trading correctly and market knowledge is the least concern yet should’ve maintained priority to bring in more views and revenues. Show a sign of sophistication on the other popular website is rejected.

The concept applies to hedge funds, institutions and currency analysts as much as the retail side of trading. Many hedge funds are out there struggling for profits as much as retail traders and currency analysts. All are no different. The word analyst is associated to expert but none are experts. The currency brokers are as much to blame in the consistent profit scenario. Nobody cares anymore for a leg up to traders.

Next stop for WTI above is 108, and 4080 for SPX 500. GBP/JPY bottoms today are done at 156.98. Good shot for longs to return to 158.18 easily.

GBP/CHF bottoms today right at 1.2129 then will travel back near 1.2221.


Best pairs next week to trade are AUD/USD and GBP/USD as middle currencies. Both are moving daily at 130 ish pips per day and outperforming EUR/USD and NZD/USD. The week’s winner is GBP/JPY and GBP/JPY will again lead the JPY cross pair pack next week.

AUD/USD higher then best trades are EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD shorts. Watch EUR/AUD 1.5082. GBP/USD positive correlations to cross pairs will maintain its positive status for easily the next few weeks.

Overall currency markets are back to normal as next week returns to normal movements.

Brian Twomey


Yesterday’s USD/CAD traded 91 pips vs 79 pips for USD/JPY. EUR/JPY traded 106 and GBP/JPY 147. USD/CAD traded 12 pips more than USD/JPY. Yesterday’s spread for USD/CAD and USD/JPY as written yesterday is 20 ish pips. and no changes today as this spread will remain until significant breaks are seen from either USD/CAD or USD/JPY.

USD/CAD bottom contains 2 levels: 1.2937 and 1.2929 or 8 pips. USD/JPY bottoms are located at 129.59 and 129.57.

USD/CAD tops are located at 1.3061 and 1.3073. USD/JPY tops are located at 130.76 and 130.91. USD/CAD 2 tops = 12 pips difference Vs USD/JPY at 15 pips.

USD/CAD big break lower must cross below 1.2985 then USD/CAD challenges 1.2882. USD/CAD topside targets 1.3126. USD/JPY lower points are located at 126.42 and 124.32. If USD/JPY is destined for higher levels then 133.64 is on the way.

Severely overbought USD/JPY is prevented to move significantly higher by massively overbought EUR/JPY. Currently USD/JPY 130.00’s Vs EUR/JPY at 137.00’s. USD/JPY higher requires assistance from EUR/JPY.

EUR/JPY bottoms today are located at 136.74 and 136.64.

SPX 500

SPX 500 big line breaks are located at 4370, 4185, 4013. Today’s lower target is located at 3930.73 and 4096.93 on the topside.

WTI big line breaks are located 114, 105.84 and 101.55. Target below is located at 97.65 and 105.45 for the topside target.

Brian Twomey


Yesterday’s EUR/USD target at 1.0627 traded to 1.0592. Lows achieved 1.0494. We knew this Sunday as the low point was reported at 1.0495.

EUR/USD total range traded yesterday 98 pips. EUR/USD achieved 1.0592 at the 12:00 hour, known historically and famously in Canada as Noon day.

Long entry was anywhere as the only question was how much money was intended to earn yesterday. Longs from 1.0494 profit was 98 pips. Entry at 1.0582 profit was 10 pips.

Today’s EUR/USD target 1.0610 and 1.0615. Drops are covered for profits as well. It doesn’t matter where EUR/USD trades as profits are covered continuously.

The profit and target train never stopped here in 10 + years. Added by request to 24 hour trades was GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF, SPX500 and WTI. For SPX and WTI was also added weekly trades.

USD/JPY traded to 129.79 and below USD/CAD. Yesterday’s USD/CAD target from 1.2986 traded to 1.3035. Yesterday written 1.3044. Quick 50 pips for doing nothing.
Current USD/JPY 130.37 Vs USD/CAD 1.3013 are both in the FX battle for supremacy.

USD/JPY has the edge currently as it contains the higher exchange rate. The edge? Right at 20 ish pips.

Today’s USD/JPY and USD/CAD share a tightly bound relationship. USD/JPY 129.71 matches USD/CAD 1.3069. USD/JPY 130.69 matches USD/CAD 1.3069.

How about USD/JPY yield spreads and 4 hour charts. Its the road to purgatory.

Due to the tightly bound relationships to currency prices, all currencies are married. For example, Por ejemplo in Espanol, GBP/JPY 160.26 = EUR/JPY 137.06. EUR/JPY 138.44 = GBP/JPY 161.88.

EUR/USD 1.0592 = NZD/USD 0.6352. GBP/USD 1.2386 = AUD/USD 0.6986. AUD/USD 0.7004 = NZD/USD 0.6368.

EUR/USD and NZD/USD share a top and bottom position. AUD/USD and GBP/USD are related by positions as middle currency pairs.

Yesterday GBP/USD traded 146 pips Vs AUD/USD 125, AUD/CHF 116. USD/JPY traded 124 pips to USD/CAD 113.

AUD/USD traded to lows at 0.6906 and targets 0.6881 and 0.6853 are close. EUR/USD target at 1.0800’s from 1.1500′ s traded an extra 300 pips lower. GBP/USD traded 300 pips lower than its targets. AUD/USD was responsible as AUD/USD was yet to complete its targets.

Once AUD/USD completes its destination then 0.7300’s will eventually trade.

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD and AUD Cross Pairs

AUD/USD remains the last holdout currency to achieve target from long term averages. AUD/USD break at the 5 and 10 year averages from 0.7298 and 0.7934 targets 0.6881 and 0.6853. The market awaits resolution to AUD/USD as NZD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD all broke long term averages and achieved targets.

EUR/USD,GBP/USD and NZD/USD now trade deeply oversold.

All JPY currencies all trade safely above longer term averages as well as USD/CHF, CHF/JPY and USD/JPY. EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD trade safely below. GBP/AUD trades safely below while EUR/AUD trades below with strong resistance just above current price.

AUD/USD main conundrum is it lacks correlations to its cross pairs. AUD/USD Vs AUD/CHF correlates at -41%, Vs AUD/JPY at -41%, Vs AUD/NZD at -62%. Most vital to AUD/USD and to stop AUD/USD’s further slide is the +95 correlation to AUD/CAD.

AUD/CAD is the top pair in the AUD universe at a 0.9060 exchange rate and 2000 pips from AUD/USD. The opposite pair to AUD/NZD is AUD/CAD and explains AUD/CAD’s top position to AUD/USD. Both AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD are the exact same currencies separated by 2 different exchange rates.

Plus AUD/CAD traditionally is a dead mover currency and contains every ability to stop AUD/USDs downslide.

Generally by year dated to the 1960’s, AUD/CAD trades roughly 700 ish pips per year. For 2022 and 5 months, AUD/CAD traded 600 pips, 1000 for 2021 and 800 for 2020. AUD/CAD for the current year trades within its historic range.

AUD/CAD is deeply oversold and matches oversold AUD/USD. AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD trade deeply overbought while AUD/CHF is fairly neutral short and long term and trades by meandering alongside AUD.

AUD/USD’s closest pair in the currency pair line up as middle currency is GBP/USD then bottom pair NZD/USD. EUR/USD fits into the AUD/CAD universe by a +44% correlation to AUD/CAD.

The Bloomberg survey forecasts EUR/USD to parity and 0.9700;s. EUR/USD was introduced at 0.9800’s in 1998 and traded above USD/CHF, AUD/CAD and DXY for all its 24 year existence. For EUR/USD yo trade at parity, it must cross below DXY.

USD/CHF and AUD/CAD would be forced to drop to act as bottom supports.
Most prominent today driving the vast majority of our currency pairs are 50 day averages. AUD/USD’s 50 day is located at 0.7365. Once AUD/USD bottoms, it contains a long way to travel higher.

Brian Twomey