On January 12, the ECB’s Parity Curve traded 1.0344 and EUR/USD at 1.0866 or a difference of 522 pips. EUR/USD traveled 166 pips higher to 1.1032 then dropped 497 pips to 1.0535 lows. EUR/USD’s drop coincided to a fall in the Parity Curve to current 1.0159 and a difference of 376 pips from 1.0535 lows.

In Percentage terms, EUR/USD traded 103.44% Vs 108.66% and current 101.59% Vs 105.35% lows.
The parity Curve informs EUR/USD’s range from 1.0711 to 1.0378. RUR/USD first break higher must clear 1.0568 then comes 1.0619, 1.0669 and 1.0745 and 1.0784.

At the Sunday night open, EUR/USD will trade 1.0551 to 1.0536. DXY is expected to trade 105.33 and 105.18.

The Week

Friday’s Inflation moves offered a clear delineation to overbought USD and oversold EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD.

Overbought EM includes USD/CNY and a target at 6.9432 then 6.9298. USD/INR and targets 82.47 then 82.32. Massive overbought USD/ILS and targets 3.5830 from 3.6649. USD/NOK targets 10.2655 from 10.3667. USD/ZAR targets lower at 18.0995 on a break at 18.2787.

DXY below contains many averages to break at 103.00’s and above at 106.98, 107.38 and 107.80. DXY higher targets 105.55 then 105.63. DXY is not only overbought but short is the exclusive trade available. Friday’s move above 104.90 to 105.32 was extraordinary.

Overbought USD/JPY targets 135.00’s beginning first at 135.93 then 135.37. USD/JPY’s move lower coincides to EUR/JPY’s target at 141.00’s and GBP/JPY at 159.00’s. GBP/JPY’s first break is located at 162.01 and EUR/JPY at 142.36.

Overbought USD/CAD conforms perfectly to severely oversold CAD/MXN. Higher CAD/MXN targets easily 13.6947 from 13.5122. Not working for USD/CAD is CAD/JPY vital 100.33 and the open at 100.26. Higher CAD/JPY trades against overbought counterpart JPY cross pairs, especially GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.

GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs in the GBP universe are the shining lights this week. GBP/AUD is not only overbought but complies to overbought EUR/AUD. Overbought GBP/NZD agrees to overbought EUR/NZD.

The GBP/USD strategy all week is long drops. Above 1.2024 then targets middle 1.2100’s easily. GBP/CHF requires a break at 1.1238 and assists to GBP/USD higher.

Brian Twomey


DXY held this week at 103.63 and 103.53 by trading lows to 103.76 then the bounce to 104.60 highs. Target highs from last week was located at 104.80’s and 104.90. DXY is not only overbought but as written last week, the 105.21 highs forecasted for next week won’t trade. Any price in the upper 104.00’s to 105.00’s are short entries for USD to include USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/ EM.

Overall DXY is a horrible, non mover currency pair but its the only guiding light to accurately base market forecasts. Other methods exist but this requires work. As the BIS Triennial Surveys states every 3 years dating to early 1990’s, DXY is represented 85% in every transaction.

As DXY reaches its top, oversold EUR/USD approaches bottoms. EUR/USD big line is located at 1.0578 and a dropping line. As EUR drops, 1.0578 also falls. Overall bottoms are found at 1.0400’s. EUR/USD dropped 500 pips from 1.1100 highs. EUR/USD contains easy ability to trade to 1.0900’s. Overbought next week begins at high 1.0700’s.

In the DXY Vs EUR/USD relationship, as DXY builds average line supports below current prices then in EUR/USD materializes averages above current prices. Currently, 1.0700’s and 1.0800;s are lines to break for a higher EUR/USD to trade 1.0900’s. EUR/USD is finding itself in a range trap as it trades in relation to DXY at 117 pips this week to DXY at 87.

GBP/USD broke above 1.2046 this week and traded to 1.2159 as forecasted. GBP/USD big line for next at 1.2030 targets again middle 1.2100’s.

USD/JPY trap this week was the range from 133.99 to 134.66. USD/JPY broke 134.66 and traded 56 pips to 135.22. Last week’s 133.99 is today 134.54 as the impending break next week targets 132.00’s

GBP/JPY as the clear winning trade this week traded above the top at 162.07 to 163.74 highs. This trade was a free money short. On the way to the 159.00 target is the must break point at 161.73. Next week’s target at 160’s is easily achievable especially on USD/JPY’s break below 134.54.

EUR/JPY for weeks has been written as a problem currency. The dilemma is EUR/JPY is to high and must trade to easily 141.10 as first target then 137.00’s.

AUD/USD at 0.6855 targets the range from 0.6855 to 0.7008 or 153 pips. Buy drop strategy next week targets the 0.6855 break for a higher AUD.

GBP/AUD recommendation to long at 1.7300’s resulted in 18 long trades in the past 22 trade days. GBP/AUD traded its best day yesterday within the past month at 277 pips.

We’re short EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD next week and targets GBP/AUD break at 1.7549 to target 1.7400. After 1 month of trading, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD reached uniformity as both now trade as one currency.

GBP/NZD trades overbought to oversold EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD is clearly the problem as has been the case over past months due to range issues. EUR/NZD is the better trade.

Day trades for today and factored yesterday align as best trades by the following currencies: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD.

A normal list of 12 currency pairs to best trades align daily as USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY as top 3 then GBP/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD. EUR/USD never makes the list nor NZD/USD,

AUD/USD, USD/CAD. DXY is offered as a guide rather than an actual trade.

Among 28 currency pairs, 14 currencies remain as viable trades. Interest rates and tiny interest rate trade ranges killed off USD/CHF, CHF cross pairs and CAD cross pairs. Eventually the mad scientists of market creation will destroy the 14 currencies to trade less than 50 pip daily ranges. Its viable as the 1960’s day trades was 10 pips at the daily highs.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY V USD/CAD and the Parity Curve

DXY for the week traded 50 pips, 115 for USD/CAD, 131 USD/JPY while EUR/USD traded 67 pips to GBP/USD 162 and GBP/JPY 259. Currency markets contain 2 trade choices to either trade exactly as DXY pip for pip or trade without. To trade without DXY then means currency pairs trade a percentage of DXY but DXY is always at the center to any trade.


USD/JPY Vs USD/CAD tops at 135.37 and 1.3603 or a difference of 66 pips. Rearrange USD/JPY 1.3537 Vs USD/CAD 1.3603. USD/CAD trades 66 pips above USD/JPY.

Bottom: USD/JPY 134.01 vs USD/CAD 1.3467 or a difference of 66 pips. Rearrange as USD/JPY 1.3401 Vs 1.3467 USD/CAD. USD/CAD trades above USD/JPY by 66 pips.

Crossovers to USD/JPY and USD/CAD are possible at 1.3502.

Both USD/JPY and USD/CAD trade 68 pips today or 136 pips for a full range. This means vital points are located every 8 pips. Everyday the USD/JPY and USD/CAD relationship adjusts slightly to the daily interest rate changes.

The interest rate parity curve dropped from 1.0007 to 1.0006. Parity curve 1.0006 X USD/JPY = 134.69 then divide = 134.60 or 9 pips.

USD/CAD X 1.0006 parity curve = 1.3543 then divide = 1.3526 or 9 pips.

DXY 13 pips as 104.13 Vs 104.00 or every pip valued at 6 pips

For yesterday and today trades: USD/JPY and USD/CAD were forced to trade more than DXY and explains why DXY traded 50 pips this week.

By a low and to lower the parity curve limits trade ranges by shortening daily ranges. The parity curve is determined by trade and distance to interest rate maturities. Flatten maturities lowers parity curves.
If the Parity Curve was raised for example to 1.0009 then 20 ish pip ranges would trade instead of 9 pips to USD/JPY and USD/CAD.

The last Fed raise by 25 points raised Fed Funds to the full 25 points to 4.58. Actual should’ve been 4.46. If the actual 12 points was granted the Parity Curve today would trade 1.0014 and great movements. By raising Fed Funds by 25 points lowered the Parity Curve to 1.0007.

Central Banks not only control the most valuable trade tool as the Parity Curve but they limit market movements on purpose.

The RBNZ raised OCR by 50 points. The RBNZ Parity Curve is located today at 1.0007. All central banks report Parity curves at the same 1.0007 vicinity.

Overall, those central bankers controlling markets are not only extremely intelligent but just as dishonest by killing off markets.

Brian Twomey



Long Short Line 134.69

Most Important 134.35 and 134.60 Vs 134.77, 134.86, 134.94, 135.03, 135.20, 135.28, 135.37

Bottom 134.01 achieves by 134.18 and 134.35

Upper Target 135.37

Continuation Fail 135.03


Long Short Line 1.3535

Most Important 1.3500 and 1.3526 Vs 1.3543, 1.3552, 1.3560, 1.3569, 1.3586, 1.3595, 1.3603

Bottom 1.3467 achieves by 1.3484 and 1.3501

Upper Target 1.3603

Continuation Fail 1.3569

USD/JPY Vs USD/CAD by move USD/JPY decimal to align correctly


Long Short Line 1.3469

Most Important 1.3435 and 1.3460 Vs 1.3477, 1.3486, 1.3494, 1.3503, 1.3520, 1.3528, 1.3537

Bottom 1.3401 achieves by 1.3418 and 1.3435

Upper Target 1.3537

Continuation Fail 1.3503


USD/JPY Upper Target 1.3537 Vs USD/CAD 1.3603

USD/JPY Continuation Fail 1.3503 Vs USD/CAD 1.3569

USD/JPY Bottom 1.3401 Vs USD/CAD 1.3467

USD/JPY Long Short Line 1.3469 Vs USDCAD 1.3535

USD/CAD trades above USD/JPY by 66 pips to all vital day trade points. Explains USD/CAD range problems over past months. Both USD/JPY and USD/CAD contain the same 68 point to 1/2 daily movements or 136 to full day range.

No difference exists to USD/JPY and USD/CAD as both are the same exact currency pair and move exactly together for a double trade.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: Powell, Inflation, EUR/USD, GBP, DXY

DXY is held this week by 103.63, 103.53, 103.36 and 103.22 and targets higher to 104.80’s and 104.90’s. The overall range is located between 103.63 and 103.53 to 106.98 then begins averages every 100 pips to 114.00’s. Provided 103.53 and 103.63 holds, next week targets low 105.00’s and top at 105.21. DXY break at 102.74 opens the flood gates lower to 100.00’s and 99.00’s.

The question to a higher DXY to eventually challenge 106.00’s is found in Powell’s words to continually raise interest rates. A currency price contains 100% correlations to its interest rates and its impossible not to correlate 100% as interest rates is the primary driver to price movements. DXY traded 97.00’s March 22 when Powell first raised by 25 points then traveled to 114.00’s on successive rate hikes.

Economically, Powell’s 4 1/2 point raises over the past year was obviously a failure. And as forecasted. Powell’s words to the 6 month lag to interest rate rise effects is also a failure. Inflation is a price problem found in the GDP economy rather than an interest rate focus and solution. The data supports the claim.

From 1000’s of data points to investigate Powell. Since 1992, Fed Funds Vs Inflation correlates to +52%. Shorter term, Inflation and Fed Funds rates correlates much higher to 80% and 90%. Powell’s raises adjusted perfectly to higher inflation and a continuation to the overall price dilemma.

Inflation Vs GDP Correlates +0.007. Under correct positioning, GDP rises forces Inflation lower. Powell’s raises offered a lower GDP, higher prices and an over priced DXY. GDP should be trading every quarter at 4% and 6% if Powell was serious to cure economic stagnation.

Silvio Gesell

Silvio Gesell informed in 1906 and the Natural Economic Order: Gesell says money isn’t the key to open markets but the bolt that locks markets shut because money incorrectly priced based on interest enters and exits markets at the wrong time.

Gesell viewed interest rates as unnatural, forces hoarding and concentrations of wealth, as collusion by moneylenders and the state and distorts the medium of exchange because only moneylenders possess the power of exchange to enter and exit markets at will based on an oversupply of money. Its a market distortion.

Overall, Powell hails from the Bernanke and Big Sis Yellen wayward economic path. With Democratic Party appointments to the Fed Board and votes to more raises, the concern isn’t recession but a market crash.

The Week

USD/JPY is caught between big break at 133.99 to 134.66. A higher DXY takes USD/JPY easily to low 136.00’s. For the week, we’re short for the 133.99 break to target 132.00’s. USD/JPY’s overall range is located from 124.93 to 133.23. The first target lower is 133.23. Higher for USD/JPY offers free money for shorts.

USD/JPY is trades far more daily and weekly pips than JPY cross pairs counterparts to inform JPY cross pairs tops reached the pinnacle.

GBP/JPY’s top in December at 163.00’s is now 162.07 and a 100 pip drop. GBP/JPY ‘s first target at 159.13 is the starting point to further targets at 158.57 and 157.16.

EUR/JPY remains on the range problem list to include USD/CAD and GBP/AUD. GBP/JPY is the best JPY cross pair trade followed by a distant 2nd to CAD/JPY.

EUR/USD sits oversold and firmly above 1.0595. EUR/USD bottom on a break is located at many points at 1.0400’s. For the week, we’re long to target near 1.0800’s and a long drop strategy.

NZD/USD as the bottom currency pair also sits oversold and targets 0.6258 then comes the resolution at 0.6280 for a higher NZD/USD. Longer term, NZD/USD targets 0.6432, 0.6494, 0.6513 and 0.6599.
Massive oversold NZD/USD complies to higher for NZD/USD. Watch NZD/CAD 0.8411 for longs and shorts throughout the week.

AUD/USD trades 0.6874 to 0.7009 and hardly any changes over last weeks. Both NZD/USD and AUD/USD lack range ability. Despite 0.7009 top for AUD/USD, overbought begins at 0.6959.

NZD/USD and AUD/USD longs are assisted by severely overbought EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. Recall past weeks for EUR/AUD tops at 1.5600 and 1.5700’s and EUR/NZD at 1.7100’s and 1.7200’s. Not much room exists for topside EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD.

EUR/NZD at severely overbought 1.7100’s and 1.7200’s complies to overbought GBP/NZD at 1.9200’s. The divergence over past weeks between EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD subsided as both now achieved uniformity. EUR/NZD remains the better trade to GBP/NZD.

Oversold GBP/AUD remains a problem to EUR/AUD into the 4th week. Long strategy from 17300’s holds again all week.

The viable trade is long GBP/USD for the break at 1.2046 to target 1.2100’s easily. Massive oversold GBP/CHF lends assistance to long only strategies all week.

Brian Twomey

DXY Pt 2

As all see from this thing I call a blog, this is a site begun in 2007 ish. It is a site for learning, research and trading primarily FX for friends and traders as I documented nearly 20 years through my trading journey.

All information and concepts are true and accurate and freely given. All concepts are in use today to accurately trade markets. Many leading FX analysts, hedge funds, money managers, FXStreet and everyday traders still peruse this site daily and often. Leading politicians from Europe are here daily over many years. Fxstreet is here far more often than normal lately. Peter Wadkins, god rest his soul, brought the entire Thomson Reuters crowd here. I credit my long time friend Tommy O..

And don’t forget the FXCM analyst crooks who copy and paste my trades and commentary to this day. The beauty of this blog is to write freely to also warn traders of the many crooks among us. The list is endless starting with the currency analysts and the collusion crowd planning to drain accounts. I;m a very nice guy and honest but despise the crooks.

This isn’t a blog hype post and in the larger scheme, nothing changed in the past 20 years as I still reside in the same tiny apartment in a very bad side of town. Drug overdose, theft, robberies are quite common here.

Overall, I wouldn’t know a dealing desk if my life depended on it or the inside of a currency broker, duties of a currency analyst, prop desks, trade conferences. All becoming fleeting cares of concern.

I see nations and views only. The problem today is the same as 2007 as concepts are truly deficient and explains why entry and exit = profits is the only analytical commentary. This also explains the trader turn to sales people and marketer. Profits are secondary.

I offered a few trade services to assist and to include the losers at FXStreet. None interested. Story of the 3 eggs, 2 bad. Enough trader turnover exists for trade services to remain viable.

The trade service is a trader creation and remains to this day for interested. And my assistance to many is the story never told. The list is endless and long.

The last DXY post received many views so I will add to assist.

USD/JPY is the least understood currency because it trades either as pip for pip to DXY or as a percentage of DXY.. Friday, DXY traded 69 pips to USD/JPY 120 or almost double. JPY cross pairs traded less than USD/JPY to inform USD/JPY not only runs and leads JPY cross pairs but JPY cross pair longs don’t have ability to sustain higher levels. They rise due to the Correlations to USD/JPY.

The same USD/JPY concept to DXY is seen in EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

The DXY concept is easily reversible for EUR/USD as EUR/USD is the exact opposite to DXY. EUR.USD traded 69 pips Friday to DXY 69 only in the opposite direction.

EUR/USD and XAU/USD top = DXY bottom. Here, trades are reversed.

DXY top = XAU/USD bottom. DXY bottom = XAU/USD top.

DXY top = XAG/USD Silver Bottom. DXY bottom = XAG/USD Silver top.

DXY Vs Interest rates, Fed Funds, Commercial Paper, 3 month and 2 year yield always Correlate 100% to DXY.

DXY top = SPX bottom. DXY bottom = SPX top. The word SPX applies to all stock markets in relation to DXY.

DXY and 2 year yield top = XAU/USD and EUR/USD bottom.

Brian Twomey


DXY Top = EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD bottoms.

DXY Bottom = EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD top. 

DXY Top = USD/JPY, JPY cross pairs, USD/CAD , EUR/GBP, CHF/JPY, Tops.

DXY tops and bottoms = tops and bottoms EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD 

DXY Bottom = Unsure to Top EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: EUR, DXY, SPX, WTI

DXY for CPI traded to 102.60 lows and 15 pips from the 102.45 break. DXY then bolted higher to trade to low 104.00’s. USD/JPY hit the DXY lows at 131.00 and traded to 134.00 highs.

DXY was included to overall daily and weekly trades. From 28 currency pairs, USD accounts for at least 15 currencies and under question are middle pairs as EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD for a total of 19. The definitive answer to verify for inclusion or exclusion is found in Correlations and an easy task to complete.

Overall DXY was contained from 102.00’s to 104.00’s. DXY next week will trade the exact same ranges as this week. DXY to trade lower must break 103.35, 103.22 then 102.46 and 102.37. DXY ranges open to 200 pips on a break of 104.40 to trade 104.00 to 106.00.

The 104 – 106 range is DXY’s best opportunity for market profits as averages align above at every 100 pips from 106.00’s. Overall, DXY 104.40 will hold next week.

Best trade opportunities are found in USD/JPY and GBP/JPY on breaks of 133.77 and 161.16. Massive overbought EUR/JPY will follow GBP/JPY lower as well as AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY.
USD/JPY’ target is now 130.89 and 65 pips higher from last week’s 130.24. USD/JPY’s movements are leading JPY cross pairs rather than cross pair leaders to USD/JPY.

GBP/USD broke vital 1.2061 and traded to 1.2269 highs or within this range as written last week: 1.2156 -1.2367. GBP/USD on Wednesday broke below 1.2061 to trade 73 pips to 1.1988.
GBP/USD next week aligns as 1.2057, 1.2166, 1.2269, 1.2372. Slight changes since last week and no change to long only strategies.

EUR/USD 1.0597 and 1.0599 Vs 1.0757, 1.0836 and 1.0915.

USD/CAD to last week’s commentary deserves a correction. USD/CAD over weeks is actually following DXY on a pip for pips basis yet trades `1/2 to USD/JPY. Normal CAD from past years should trade alongside USD/JPY. No changes to USD/CAD trading a pure noise perspective. Overall, USD/CAD is a terrific currency and money maker but CAD has fallen and lacks ability to move.

AUD/USD trades 0.6881 to 0.7009 or 128 pips.

EUR/AUD trades above vital 1.5402 while GBP/AUD trades below its important break point at 1.7524. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD trade divergent to each other in a severe misalignment. The problem pair is GBP/AUD as GBP/AUD ranges died in comparison to EUR/AUD.

EUR/AUD is clearly the better trade pair while GBP/AUD strategy is continuous from the past 3 weeks to long drops at 1.7300’s. The strategy held everyday this week for 100 pips per trade and many trades over the past 3 weeks. GBP/AUD is caught over the past month between 1.7300’s to 1.7500’s.

EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD trade the same same problem as EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. EUR/NZD trades massive overbought at 1.7000’s while GBP/NZD trades below vital 1.9170. GBP/NZD as widest range currency pair is the problem as ranges died. EUR/NZD is the better currency to trade.

WTI high side target this week was 81.35 and tops achieved 80.65. SPX high target at 4197 traded to 4159 with 2 trade days remaining.

For Gold, WTI, SPX, VIX and DAX are traded daily and weekly, longs and shorts for continuous profits Sunday to Friday.

Currency markets overall are waiting for DXY to inform if DXY continues a correction higher or continues the downtrend by the break at 102.00’s. The overall trend is much lower and we continue the long EUR and short USD/JPY strategy.

Brian Twomey


The result to DXY’s bounce from crucial 99.00 and 100.00 supports is averages below build against the 100 levels. As DXY trades higher then more supports build below. The problem to a higher DXY is averages are already contained at every 100 pips above the current price from the downtrend at 114.00’s. DXY and USD currencies are trapped between averages building below and those averages already in place on the topside.

Trapped for DXY refers to 100 pip ranges and a severe slowdown to currencies and all market prices until DXY breaks from tiny ranges. SPX for example traded `119 points last week and the lowest range for the past 5 weeks.

Despite the 2 week rise for DXY, the short only program remains for USD/JPY and long EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Higher DXY offers many more pips to USD/JPY shorts and EUR/USD longs.

From DXY’s close at 103.58, DXY will struggle to move higher than low 104.00’s and supports exist at 103.56, 103.31, 103.25 and 102.45. Below 102.45 begins the DXY and USD downtrend again.

On the opposite side is EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD as DXY travels higher, averages are building against a higher EUR, AUD and NZD. AUD and NZD are most affected as AUD and NZD ranges are the exact complement to DXY. AUD/USD for example trades 0.6886 to 0.7007 or a 121 pip range while NZD/USD from vital 0.6301 to 0.6492 trades 191 pip range.

The Week

USD/JPY averages are rising slowly against DXY. Last week’s 129.65 for example is this week’s 130.24 then begins oversold. The overall range remains 124.88 to 133.34 and 133.46.
JPY Cross Pairs.

In JPY cross pairs is seen most specifically the DXY effects of USD/JPY averages rising against EUR/USD averages dropping. JPY cross pairs this week are all oversold and oversold to USD/JPY’s far to high price at 131.00’s. USD/JPY and JPY cross pair trend is lower but JPY cross pairs are caught in the DXY compression to ranges. Most specific to reduced ranges is seen in AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY as all trade 1/2 to EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

Inside EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY prices are built in ranges and always wider than AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY to force JPY cross pair movements and to claim leadership positions.

GBP/JPY trades 156.16, 158.85, 160.84. EUR/JPY 135.50, 138.25, 141.01. Bottom averages are dropping however slowly to inform a short only strategy remains the only way forward.

GBP/JPY targets 158.80 and 140.14 for EUR/JPY. The overall lazer focus is GBP/JPY 156.16.
EUR/USD trades oversold and safely above 1.0608 inside the current price path from 1.0591, 1.0608, 1.0673, 1.0753, 1.0834, 1.0914.

USD/CAD not only fails to follow DXY properly and caught in 200 pip ranges for the past 2 months but CAD ranges are reaching its peak and warrants a breakout. For the week, USD/CAD is oversold and travels higher on a break of 1.3387.

Inside USD/CAD’s price is pure noise as measured by an extraordinarily high Noise Ratio vs a low low variation. USD/CAD must trade to at least 1.3500’s or 1.3000’s to relieve the mounting noise pressure and offer wider variation to present 200 pip ranges. Failure to trade wider ranges continues higher Noise tensions to warrant a massive one shot move.

USD/CAD’s big break for lower on a longer term view remains 1.3131 and no changes over the past 2 months. Target on a break is now 1.2901 from 1.3000’s.

EUR/CAD 1.4039, 1.4201, 1.4315 and 1.4524. The change to EUR/CAD averages over the past month is about 200 pips.

GBP/CAD targets easily 1.6184 on a break of 1.6144. Long is the only strategy.

GBP/USD requires a break at 1.2061 then targets 1.2156, 1.2367 and 1.2578.

EUR/AUD trades 1.5362, 1.5407, 1.5577.

GBP/AUD begins the week deeply oversold and targets high 1.7400’s easily.

WTI high target last week was 81.32 and traded to 80.32 from 72.26. WTI for the week on the highs side targets again 81.35.

SPX targets last week at 4222.00 fell short by 40 points as SPX traded to 1.4177 highs. This week, SPX targets 4197.42.

Brian Twomey Contact: [email protected]


As written last week: DXY vital breaks are located at 103.29, 103.55 and 103.67. DXY broke 103.67 and traded to 104.01 in a dull 104 pip trade week. DXY was oversold from low 100.00’s and extremely close to the 99.00 break.

DXY supports are building below 104.00’s at 103.46, 103.39 and 102.23. Further down, 102.36 must break in order for the DXY downtrend to resume on a much quicker pace. Trade in the 102.00 to 104.00 range will offer another fairly slow trade week.

DXY 104.00’s and higher will struggle next week to move achieve further gains. Big short points next are 104.32 and 104.48 and a massive line at 104.80. Higher overall, DXY will struggler and move extremely slow.

SPX traded 87 points to 4176.73 highs from 4089.12 lows on a weekly target at 4222.69. Currently 47 points remain to target and 2 trade days. DXY’s range from 102.00 to 104.00 offers about 100 ish point range next week. The high side informs target at 4190.00’s.

Gold traded 25 points this week or 1/4 to DXY from 1899.12 to 1874.11. Next week targets 1902. and further gains ahead in upcoming weeks to high 1900.00’s.

WTI highs achieved 78.82 from 72.25 lows or 6 weekly points on a target at 81.32. WTI cracked above the massive 77.00 to 83.00 range. WTI hold supports at 75.00’s and 76.00’s and targets easily 79.00’s next week. Overall, WTI 6 weekly points is a fairly normal trade week.

EUR/USD must trade above 1.0618 to target 1.0915 by breaks at 1.0679, 1.0780, 1.0847. EUR topside averages are dropping against rising averages at the low end to inform a larger EUR move lies ahead in upcoming weeks.

AUD/USD higher must break 0.7006 to target 0.7052 and 0.7107.and trades an overall 118 pip range from 0.6887 to 0.7005. AUD becomes overbought above 0.6997.

EUR/AUD last week from reported tops at 1.5700’s and 1.5800 traded to 1.5658 and dropped 284 pips to 1.5374. EUR/AUD trades oversold from big break at 1.5420 and targets next week 1.5563. EUR/AUD must break 1.5420 to target again 1.5300’s.

GBP/AUD at big break at 1.7564 traded to the brink at 1.7550 then dropped 300 pips to 1.7200’s. Next week, GBP/AUD ranges from low 1.7400’s and long to 1.7500’s as 1.7538 is required to trade to 1.7600’s.

USD/JPY trades 124.88 to 133.38 and 133.48. We’re short next week around 131.68 to target the break at 129.98.

GBP/USD last week as written must break 1.2114 and 1.2144. GBP/USD traded to 1.2158 from 1.1960 lows. Next week target high 1.2200’s.

GBP/JPY trades 156.20 to 160.96 and 200 pips for the week from 157.00’s to 159.00’s. GBP/JPY breaks 156.00’s then JPY cross pairs trade 500 pips lower and USD/JPY follows.

EUR/JPY 141.50 then back to 142.00’s.

USD/CAD trades 1.3200’s to 1.3400’s for the past 2 weeks. USD/CAD not only contains a range problem but CAD fails to trade alongside DXY is a meaningful manner.

Currency markets trade next week in short ranges as DXY must decide its destiny by breaks lower at 103.00’s. This will force better trade environments and wider ranges.

Brian Twomey

RIP Peter Wadkins: A 48 Year FX Career

With much sadness on this day to report the passing of my long time friend Peter Wadkins. Peter was sick and in the hospital for Christmas. By New Years, the diagnosis was Pancreatic Cancer and the schedule for Chemo treatment. I don’t know what happened in the interim but Peter passed away last Saturday.

Many loyal friends on this blog would know Peter as I posted much to his FX and market writings at Thomson Reuters, advice to trades and markets and his famed yet highly profitable moving average model. Peter’s model is where I began way back in 2007? to know and understand trading from a moving average perspective and to profit from trades as my past trading life was a disaster. As Peter advised, central banks trade by moving averages and correct for us to trade alongside the central banks.

Peter was known and many commented to his flair and style of writing as he brought market prices to life with a depth of understanding known by no other. But not just from a price perspective as Peter well understood the economics of exchange rates from imports and exports, prices to interest rate rises and falls. Peter knew every last detail to exchange rates.

Peter placed a personality and hysterical commentary when required.

The leading FX people in 2012 were the Cycle Gurus, Jean Claude Trichet as ECB head was JC and the Sunshine Band, USD/CAD skyrocketed 200 pips, Hoochie Mama. I was Black Box Brian.

As Jamie Coleman wrote years ago in regards to Peter: Peter forget what we will never know when it comes to markets. This is where Peter’s expert commentary was highly regarded to Pros and across the world to millions of traders.

Peter was well respected and well known in a 48 year FX run.

Peter was born in the UK and traded FX forwards at the age of 19, just at the time of the 1972 free float. He was recognized by a highly regarded banker in the United Sates and brought to the bank.

In Peter’s words:

I am a skilled professional in the FX & money market space. I worked my way up through the ranks from trainee dealer to VP manager of corporate FX, chief spot dealer and eventually Treasurer. Over that time frame I have developed knowledge of spot and forward FX, FX Advisory/ sales, money markets / fixed income and emerging markets.

I introduced Asian NDFs to the New York brokerage market in 1997 and was the first desk manager to introduce Brazil NDFs as a mainstream product in New York.

I have managed sales desks, trading desks, brokerage desks and have been the Treasurer of two banks. I was a director of Forex USA from 1996-2000 and became president of the latterly re-named Financial Markets Association USA from 2000-2006.

I sat on the Foreign Exchange Committee of the Federal Reserve Bank from Oct 2000 – Dec 2003. I lectured on NDFs at NYU business school’s post-graduate class 1997-1999 and have appeared on many industry conferences/ TV outlets as a moderator, panelist or featured guest. I was the opening speaker at an in-house seminar for Reuters’ top 100 sales people

In addition, Peter was part of the team during the Argentine Peso crisis in 1982, on the CME floor in March 1983 as a bank Treasurer when AUD free floated , assisted test takers to the ACI FX exam and sat on the ACI board. Peter on his last day was involved with ACI.

From a personal perspective, Peter was my friend and as my friend, we maintained constant contacts over the past 15 years, 16? . Peter was generous and giving when it came to FX and markets. Peter was last at my house for 2 days last year to eat, drink and discuss FX and Models.

While Peter left us to reside in heaven, never will Peter ever be forgotten.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD V DXY, Gold, WTI, SPX

DXY at 100.82 traded deeply oversold and dangerously close to the 99.00 break while EUR/USD at 1.1032 became massively overbought and near the 1.1100 break. EURUSD was heading lower and DXY higher. The only question was how fast or how slow would prices travel.

NFP was a terrific bonus as EUR/USD was relieved of overbought conditions to now trade oversold while DXY oversold offers severely overbought at 102.00’s.

DXY vital breaks are located at 103.29, 103.55 and 103.67 then begins averages at every 100 pips to 114.00 highs. Below, DXY must break 101.90 and 101.75. Longer term, DXY must break 99.00, 98.00 and 97.00’s. Break at 97.00’s then DXY travels miles lower to 93.00’s.

The DXY. USD and USD/JPY trade strategy remains short only as DXY downside contains 400 pips to challenge the 99.00 support. DXY’s overall range is located from 99.00’s to 103.00’s.

Oversold EURUSD is held by supports at 1.0629 and 1.0705. Vital 1.0912 must break for EUR/USD to trade from 1.0912 to 1.1135. Higher targets are located at 1.0805, 1.0925 and 1.1048 as the final target. EUR/USD contains easy ability for the 1.1048 target to achieve its destination this week. EUR/USD long entry is found around 1.0755.

USD/JPY broke 129.65 and traded to 131.00’s. Shorts must again break 129.65 to target 128.00’s. USD/JPY overall trades 839 pips from 124.92 to 133.31. Lower this week for USD/JPY will trade 132.00’s to 124.92 to further compress the range. The final target at 121.00’s holds on a short only trade strategy.

GBP/USD must break 1.2114 and 1.2144 then the target becomes 1.2418 on a long only strategy. GBP/USD is required to break 1.2584 to target 1.2700 as the final destination.

AUD/USD targets 0.6940, 0.6973 and 0.7105 while NZD/USD targets 0.6428, 0.6512 and eventual 0.6601. NZD/USD big line break above is located at 0.6492.


As EUR/USD travels higher, Gold targets 1975.88 and 1982.22 on a long only strategy. Shorts begin at 1975.00’s. As DXY approaches 99.00’s and 400 pips of downside, Gold has ability to trade 2034.49. Driving Gold higher is average supports below at every 100 pips from 1800.00’s.


Weekly target is located at 4222.69. SPX supports are located at 4100.00’s, 3900.00’s and 3700.00’s. Expect SPX to travel higher on a slow slow grind as current averages fail to support much higher to 4300’s over the next month. SPX 5000 is a current dream rather than reality.


WTI ranges from 77.00’s to 83.00 and 85.00’s. For the week, target is located at 81.32. Above 85.00’s, WTI travels much higher.


GBP/AUD’s big break for higher is located at 1.7564 and targets 1.7700’s easily. GBP/AUD trades deeply oversold on a long only strategy. The problem to GBP/AUD is overbought EUR/AUD. EUR/AUD’s top is located 1.5700’s and 1.5800’s and can’t handle much higher in the short term. The GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD relationship has been off kilter for the past 2 months and doesn’t appear to stabilize anytime soon.

USD/CAD sits at do or die at 1.3382 and massive support at 1.3131. USD/CAD’s next target below is found at 1.3232 however USD/CAD will struggle to trade lower at 1.3309. The final target at 1.3113 holds.

GBP/JPY trades 156.28 to 161.34. JPY cross remain on a short only strategy to trade lower alongside USD/JPY. The big 3 JPY cross pairs remain GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Overall best trades for 2023 remains EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY. GBP/CAD is the better trade to EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD over GBP/NZD and EUR/AUD over GBP/AUD.

Brian Twomey

NFP History: Revised

This article was written in 2017 so slight difference to overall numbers however today was included revisions. The BLS once offered data to 1939 and the full data for each category from the day of inception. Today is different as data goes back about 10 to 20 years depending on the category.

For NFP numbers, 10 years and possibly 20 may or may not be enough data for an accurate forecast. Every month is different as the location of the data from month to month ranges. If the NFP data for this month is located at the 20 year average then we know NFP is to high. Same concept if data is found at the lower averages.

Total employed persons in the United States stands at approximately 159,224, 000, 000. For NFP we want to know the changes to 100,000. Overall, NFP is a minor release in comparison to the total.

The most stunning number is the Participation Rate and the steady decline since 2004. Analysts would view this phenomenon as many who left the workforce. I don’t agree.

I see the low participation rate as primarily the poor to middle person class. All are employed and working in the underground economy as this class would lose and remain much poorer to work within the system. As taxes rise and job openings become scarce, an entire class of working persons is never to return to the workforce or become a statistical number to the system.

Some call this phenomenon the Great Resignation. Within the context of various states and neighborhoods, underground workers are doing just fine.

As the Participation Rate drops further then the class of persons to join the underground economy grows.

History of NFP

Non Farm Payrolls

Non Farm payrolls began reporting in 1939 with passage of the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act to also give us a maximum 44 hour work week and Minimum Wage that began at 25 cents per hour.

Today’s Minimum Wage at $7.25 vs 0.25 cents offers a mid rate at $3.75 and $5.12 at 10 per hour.

Non Farm Payrolls traditionally held to 50,000 per month changes to match Thursday’s Weekly Continuing Claims unemployment data. The average change for 2022 was 146,000 Vs a guaranteed movement within 100,000.

Since 2012, reporting months average changes range from September and August lows at 187 and 188 and June at 197 to high months in February at 318, January 273 and November at 252.

Participation Rate

Participation Rate current: 62.3. Since 2008 = 60.8 May 2022 to 66.2 January 2008. The Participation Rate since 2008 has been traveling lower on a steady decline. Range 61.0 to 66.0 or 5 points.

The overall drop from 66.0 highs began in 2002. The participation rate breaks down to 70% men and 58% women, 62.1 to 62.4 for white and blacks, 64.2 for Asians and 66.3 for Hispanics.

From 2021 to 2022, the Participation Rate ranged from 61.7 to 62.3.

Participation Rate. Began January 1954 as a formal release. From January 1954 – August 1969, the Participation Rate ranged between 58.0 – 59.0. Only 4 times was 57 seen during this period and 3 of those times was in 1954. 58.0 was seen 112 months during this 180 month total and a slight bit higher than half of the 90 month average.

From the latter part of 1969 – 1973, the Participation Rate steadily increased to reach first ever 60.0 and began a slow climb to current 62.8. But 62.8 is quite low historically and hovered in the 62 range from 2012 – 2014. Year 1984 saw the highest ever since release inception to 64.0 while the 1990’s experienced 67.0.

Employment Population Ratio

Employment Population Ratio. Began in 1954 at 55.5 and again saw a steady increase to 2017 at 58.0. But 58.0 is off from historic 64.0 and 65.0 highs between 1996 – 2006. From 2009 – 2014, the average reports at 59.0.

From 2004 to 2022, current Employment Population Ratio stands at 60.0 against lows achieved at 51.3 in April 2020 and highs at 63.4 in December 2006. The Employment Population Ratio has been steadily declining since 2006 highs at 63.4.

Men dominate the workforce at 67.7, Women at 56.5. Whites account for 59.9, Blacks 58.3, Asian 63.2 and Hispanics at 63.1.

Seasonal Employment

Seasonal Employment. Began in 1954 at 53,000 persons and again a steady rise to highest ever 120,003 in December 2007. In 2017, employed accounts for 117,186. The numbers exploded from 2000 – Present and never saw a low of 100,000.


At Today’s 2022 rate, 5.7 million are unemployed and 2.1 million unemployment claims.

Unemployment Levels. From 1954 and 2000 lows, Unemployment levels ranged between 2000 – 5,000 until 2009 when Unemployment exploded higher to first ever 100,000.
Unemployment Rate. From 1954 – 2017, the Unemployment Rate ranged between 3.0 lows – 9.0 in 2009 and 2017 at 4.8.

The Unemployment rate from 2002 to 2022 ranged from 13.2 highs to current 3.5. The rate at 3.5 was reported 5 times since 2019.

Not in Labor Force. From 1975 – Present, the figure bounced between 51,000 – 73,000 highs but has seen a steady increase over the years. A possible reason is the introduction of Unemployment Insurance beginning in the late 1960’s then the pile on Bills to accompany disability, Unemployment extensions and Disaster Relief.

Union Membership. From 1983 – 2014, membership dropped from 17, 717 to current 14,576, 11.1% of the workforce are union wage workers V 20.1% in 1983. Union membership has seen a steady decline from first reported in 1983. In terms of actual workers, today 129,000 V 140,347 in 1983.

Federal Government. Totals workers in the Federal Government 2, 744, 931. A few of the highest

agencies. Total Postal workers 579,000, Homeland Security 196,799, Natural Resources 178,000, police Protection 192,21

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: EUR/USD Target 1.1001 Achieved

EUR/USD target at 1.1001 achieved yesterday. As written November 11 when EUR/USD traded 1.0200’s, Long term targets 1.0592, 1.0798 and final at 1.0967. The target at 1.0967 was since adjusted to 1.1001 by model dictates. The model requires a re check to targets at about every 500 pips of movements.

As seen here, the difference to targets since November was 35 pips yet not a waste of time as my entire structure over the past 12 and 15 years was to hit any target perfectly and construct MA models to ensure targets achieve destinations. See btwomey.com for gabillions of 10 and 12 year past trades long and short term. Obviously the program became a huge success.

Yesterday’s target at 1.0998 from 1.0903 achieved also. EUR/USD traded to 1.1032 highs and 6 pips shy of the next big break at 1.1038.

As a trade begins at entry and ends at target, trade requirements are click for entry and exit then walk away as stops, charts and the latest market talk is totally irrelevant.

EUR/USD now trades the range from 1.0909 to 1.1133 and next big levels at 1.0994, 1.1036, 1.1079 and exactly 1.1100. EUR/USD must decide to break 1.1133 to trade the next 200 pip range from 1.1133 to 1.1344 or 1.0705 to 1.0909 then 1.0625 to 1.0705.

Not only is EUR/USD approaching do or die at 1.1133 but higher EUR/USD will see a slowdown to prices on the path to 1.1133. EUR/USD will either break 1.1133 and skyrocket or experience a deep drop as required by principles of moving averages.

EUR/USD is deeply overbought from 1.0625 and 1.0705. Next week shorts target easily 1.0891 and again the bottom at 1.0824.

Oversold USD/JPY targets next week easily 129.65 and 130.11.

GBP/USD’s target remains 1.2750 on a break of 1.2586. GBP/USD then enters the range from 1.2586 to 1.2895 from current 1.2128 to 1.2586 at 458 pips.

AUD/USD remains 0.6998 to 0.7140. Higher targets 0.7179 and 0.6924 on a break of 0.6998. Overall, AUD trades deeply overbought from 0.6800’s.

DXY is the driver to markets and currency prices. DXY yesterday traded to 100.82 and 32 pips short of the next big level at 100.50.

EUR/AUD 1.5402 decides its fate for higher or lower. Massive oversold GBP/AUD back to 1.7520 on breaks of 1.7268, 1.7331, 1.7394, 1.7457.

GBP/JPY 156.34 to 161.62 and no change this week. EUR/JPY 135.00’s to 141.55. Shorts located at low 142.00’s.

EUR/CAD achieved 1.4641 highs yesterday. Middle 1.4400’s remain big breaks to target 1.4600’s and 1.4700’s or 1.4200.

Brian Twomey

February Trade: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

GBP/USD trades 1.2121 to 1.2583. The break of 1.2583 coincides to DXY 99.00’s. DXY must break lower in order for GBP 1.2583 to break higher. For February, GBP/USD 1.2500’s are many and massive. Plus GBP/USD becomes overbought at 1.2500’s.

DXY hold at 99.00’s then range becomes 99.00 and 100.50 to 103.00’s or a 300 ish pip range.
Failure to break 1.2500’s, then means shorts all month at 1.2400’s. GBP/USD provides solid supports at 1.2100’s as many averages exist at 1.2100’s. The bottom averages are rising and fairly quickly. Bottom average rises are positive to GBP for the eventual 1.2500 break.

Overall strategy is short 1.2400’s and long 1.2200’s.

EUR/USD for the month of February since 1999 traded 13 down months to 9 months higher. Since 2008, EUR/USD traded 4 months higher to 9 months down. Historically, February is a fairly light and range trade month.

EUR/USD big break is located at 1.0903. Higher targets 1.0998 and lower 1.0803, 1.0770.

USD/JPY traded 125.03 to 133.62. Note USD/JPY 125.03 and GBP/USD 1.2583. GBP/USD break higher above 1.2583 then USD/JPY breaks 125.03 and trades much lower to 123.00’s then 122.00’s.

USD/JPY vital supports for the month of February are located at 126.00’s. USD/JPY at 133.62 must hold for shorts to continue. The eventual path to 133.00’s is to travel next to 132.00’s. If 133.00’s breaks on a fluke then USD/JPY can trade to 135.00’s and 136.00’s easily for the month of February.

AUD/USD trades 0.6998 to 0.7140 and the same location for the past 2 weeks. Below 0.6998 targets 0.6911. Above 0.7140 targets 0.7172.

AUD/USD for the month of February can trade easily to 0.7200’s at 0.7255 target. AUD/USD must hold 0.7140 and 0.6998. AUD/USD is the more favorable currency to EUR/USD and GBP/USD as AUD has great ability to trade wide and free.

AUD/USD above 0.7140 maintain a range from 0.7140 to 0.7384 and a long drop strategy.

FED Funds, Yield Curve

Whatever Powell and the Fed decides on this day, the final determination is located inside the day trade and longer term ranges and targets. We should see a minimum 50 pip move and maximum at 100.
The FED is most vital because DXY affects every market price on the planet.

Yield Curve and Fed Funds

Fed Funds Rate Averages from 26 to 31 years. Not oversold or Overbought
Range: 1.69 to 6.95 and 6.98
Mid 4.32, Current 4.33

Yield Curve Average 4.26
Range 3.84 – 4.68

25 Point raise =4.45
50 = 4.68 or top of Yield Curve exactly

The RBA raised 25 Points on December 6
AUDUSD traded 63 pips for the day and 30 pips on the announcement.
ASX 200 traded 53 Points for the day while AUD, Gold and XAUAUD traded 23 points.

Currency Price dictates all financial Instruments.
Stocks, Gold, Silver won’t ever trade more than a Currency price.

Brian Twomey