No AUD Watch Tool. We’re on our own.

1 month = 3.65

2 month = 3.69

3 month = 3.70

4 month 3.76

5 month 3.81

6 month 3.85

Ever wondered why AUD/USD trades dead ranges. Because 20 points separates highs and lows. Bank Bill mid rates trade 20 points.

Australia Bank Accepted Bills trade 1, 3 and 6 months at 3.62, 3.67 and 3.82 or 20 points.

24 hour delayed BBSW rates

As of 27/04/2023

Australia and 5 Day interest rate Rule

5 Day Rule

The 3 month rate and RBA maturities must change by at least 5 basis points within 5 days then markets are alerted to an impending rate change. RBA rates fails in this regard as no movements exist. Only rare days does the RBA and central banks surprise with a rate change.

BBSW 10 day history

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY Correlates -75%. Replace DXY with USDJPY and note, USD/JPY contains miles of downside.

EUR/USD 1.1099 Vs DXY 100.92

EUR/USD 1.1141 Vs DXY 100.40

EUR/USD 1.1226 Vs DXY 99.55 here DXY 50 year monthly average

EUR/USD 1.1438 Vs DXY 97.44

EUR/USD 1.1649 Vs DXY 95.32

EUR/USD 1.1861 Vs DXY 93.20

Brian Twomey

GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade to exorbitant levels in a weekly series from overbought to more overbought is explained by Correlations. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY switched correlational loyalties from USD/JPY to GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

GBP/JPY correlations to GBP/USD runs +78% and – 16% to USD/JPY while EUR/JPY correlates to EUR/USD at +86% and – 32% to USD/JPY.

The positive to GBP/USD and GBP/JPY correlations is both begin the week severely overbought. GBP/JPY overbought at 171.00’s and EUR/JPY at 150.00’s trades at overbought extremes. Both will trade short this week based on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY correlations at +98%.

USD/JPY’s only correlational power is found with CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY as CAD/JPY correlates to USD/JPY at 98% and NZD/JPY to USD/JPY at +81%.

AUD/JPY is the lost currency price in the JPY cross pair line up as AUD/JPY correlates to USD/JPY at +83% but also to AUD/USD at +44%. Add USD/CAD as another confused currency as USD/CAD correlates to USD/JPY at – 38% and an acceptable -56% to CAD/JPY.

USD/JPY ‘s power is found when Correlations run positive to all JPY cross pairs particularly to GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY as wide range movers among JPY cross pairs. A currency especially an anchor pair that lacks correlation power to its cross pairs is sold as it lacks the capability for upward momentum.

How high and to what degree is GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY overbought is seen in Correlations to AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

AUD/JPY correlates to EUR/JPY at -70% and -60% to GBP/JPY while NZD/JPY correlates to EUR/JPY at -75% and -65% to GBP/JPY. CAD/JPY shares a negative effect to correlations but not as solid as AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. CAD/JPY correlations to EUR/JPY run -36% and -20% to GBP/JPY.

While correlations among AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY run at high +80% and +90%, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY not only divorced from USD/JPY but also to remainder JPY cross pairs as AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY.

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY only trade choice is miles lower in order to re Correlate at normal levels to USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY to form 1 trade block. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY separated from the trade block.

The Week

GBP/JPY first target is 163.74. Easier to address the target at the 200 day average upon the break of 5, 10, 20 and 50 day averages. Shorts to 167.00’s and 166.00’s will achieve easily. Holding GBP/JPY progress lower is 165.06. This line will continually drop as GBP/JPY trades lower.

EUR/JPY first target at 143.16 is located at the 100 day average. Trade to 147.00’s and 146.00’s achieves easily. EUR/JPY’s 145.00 line will also drop as EUR/JPY trades lower.

USD/JPY overbought at 136.00’s targets easily low 135.00’s for the week while 134.57 must break to target 133.06 then 132.00’s.

GBP/USD and EUR/USD both negatively correlate to USD/JPY at a solid -75% and -74% to reveal USD/JPY trades opposite to GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

GBP/USD big line break is now 125.90 and Friday, GBP/USD traded to 1.2583. The target at 1.2700’s has been reported since last December and January when GBP/USD traded at 1.1800’s. The trade runs maximum 700 pips and 200 pips yet to travel.

Trades run by pure numbers and not by stops, charts or the latest market phenomenon.
GBP/USD and USD/JPY both begin the week overbought. USD/JPY’s direction and targets are straight down while GBP/USD trades long at lower levels to break 1.2590.

EUR/USD longs hold as EUR/USD trades above low 1.0800’s and 1.0883. EUR/USD trades 183 pips between 1.0954 to 1.1137.

Wide Range Currencies

The common trade theme for wide range currencies is 300 and 600 pip targets. The mis alignment as 300 and 600 pips is attributed to the 2 year cycle at every 2 years. The 300 and 600 pips is perfectly in line with past 2 year cycles in the January to April/ May periods. See btwomey.com for trades in the last 2 year cycles beginning in 2018.

GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD

EUR/NZD target at 1.7200 is held by vital 1.7400. The 1.7200 target from 1.7800’s or 600 pips at 2 ranges at 300 pips.

GBP/NZD’s next big lines at 2.0357 and 2.0397 trades overbought at the open price at 2.0318. GBP/NZD targets 1.9734 and the same 600 pips lower as EUR/NZD.

GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD contain short only trade strategies.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD

EUR/AUD targets 1.6021 then 1.5938. EUR/AUD traded to 1.6700 highs or 700 pips and just prior to the big lines at 1.6800’s.

GBP/AUD must trade lower to 1.8553 then caution at the line at 1.8300’s.
Best trade is EUR/AUD as no significant levels exist to target.

GBP/CAD’s top is located at 1.7060 and 1.7099. Overall, GBP/CAD trades 1.7099 to 1.6940 then 1.6836.

USD/EM

USD/CZK targets 21.2468 easily. USD/MYR break 4.4465 targets 4.4224.

USD/TRY ranges from 19.5503 to 19.3461. Overbought GBP/NOK targets 13.2122.

USD/BRL ranges from 5.0150 to 4.9642.

Brian Twomey

The message from the BOJ: I will dead stop USD/JPY just before the vital 136.00 lines. I will alert the trading crowds 24 hours in advance to the 140.00 top.

I will add at least another 200 pips to overall shorts from 600 to easily 800 pips. I will offer traders more money for accounts by following short only strategies.

I will commit to USD/JPY intervention if USD/JPY rises further. Last was at 142.00;s. Don’t push your luck to longs and don’t dare take an overbought currency at 133.00’s to a phantom target.

We are the BOJ, the Gang that can’t Shoot Straight and we will follow current policies until it crushes Japan and sinks USD/JPY.

Here’s interesting from the BOJ as they admit their 100 year monetary policy mistakes.

Since the late 1990s, when Japan’s economy fell into deflation, achieving price stability has been a challenge for a long period of 25 years. During this period, the Bank has implemented various monetary easing measures.

These measures have interacted with and influenced wide areas of Japan’s economic activity, prices, and financial sector. In light of this, the Bank has decided to conduct a broad-perspective review of monetary policy, with a planned time frame of around one to one and a half years.

Once USD/JPY breaks 134.58 then next targets 133.36, 132.27, 131.51, 127.91 and much more to go short.

Brian Twomey

As DXY achieved 114.00 highs in September 2022, USD/JPY traded to 151.00’s and since dropped 2400 pips to 127.00’s by January 2023 or 2400 pips in 4 months. DXY dropped 1300 pips in 5 months to 100.83 lows from 114.00’s.

Traditional currency cycles run 2400 to 2500 pips. As USD/JPY traded 1 full cycle, DXY traded 1/2. The Japanese and BOJ understand the 2400 pip cycles and they factor the cycle on a daily basis.

The BOJ on this day views USD/JPY as 123.10 – 145.44 or 2234 pips. The cycle is then condensed as 140.70 – 127.25 or 1345 pips and matches DXY’s 1/2 cycle at 1300 pips.

The BOJ 6 billion JPY intervention from September to October 2022 ensured cycle beginning and completion as the BOJ embarked on an interest rate raise cycle to Japanese Call Rates. The Ministry of Finance termed the intervention as an equilibrium operation.

USD/JPY big line is located at 134.45. USD/JPY 136.00 lines are drooping against USD/JPY current price. Those lines at 136.02, 136.41 and 136.88 will continue to drop as USD/JPY falls further.

USD/JPY bottoms are located at 132.00’s at 132.88 and 132.48. Overall, USD/JPY ranges from 132.00’s to 134.00’s and 134.00’s to 136.00;s. Long at 132.00’s and short 136.00’s.

USD/PLN from March 28 and April 5 achieved target at 4.1423 from 4.3400’s. The trade ran +1900 pips in about 25 trade days.

GBP/USD’s big line break above at 1.2587 targets 1.2729.

USD/CAD traded 1.3900 tops while DXY traded 114.00’s. Overbought USD/CAD targets easily 1.3400’s.
AUD/USD oversold matches massive oversold AUD/CHF and AUD/EUR while oversold NZD/USD also matches to oversold NZD/CHF and NZD/EUR.

No excitement to GBP/CHF nor EUR/CHF however CAD/CHF trades massive oversold.

DXY’s 50 year monthly average at 99.00’s won’t trade anytime within the next weeks. The best we see is trade to low 100.00’s.

From current DXY and EUR/USD prices, DXY must drop to 100.63 in order for EUR/USD to break 1.1134 and trade higher.

Brian Twomey

OIS or the Swap market. OIS rates are found by Corra minus 3 and 6 month yields. Be smart, view all rates. Because the actual view is 1 month = 30 days, 2 month = 60 days, 3 months = 90 days. Certain interest rate nation systems are best viewed as 30 and 60 days such as Australia and New Zealand. Each rate is vital and imparts much information.

Canada is saying, no raise in rates anytime soon as rates trade below Corra. Most interest rate systems from many nations look the same as Canada. The rate rise cycle is at its end and interest rate drops are becoming the norm based on the OIS data and positions of yields.

What’s the difference between Canada and Japan. Nothing as both system set ups are basically the same. Most interest rate system all look like Canada and Japan. Slight nuances exist to separate the systems such as an added interest rate in place of a yield. Other nations place more emphasis on interest rates rather than yields. Europe fits the bill as Europe is a pure interest rate system. Yield are the second cousins to interest rates.

The Federal reserve is sort of a hybrid system but also sort of a pure interest rate system. Commercial Paper rates is the deciding factor as to the question if Rates are published or not published on any given day.

Much has changed since 2016 to enormous changes to interest rates uses and practices. Came with Libor elimination and cause to revamp nations interest rate systems. New system caused interest rate channels to decrease and this killed off market trading as we once knew. The OIS market is large and growing and this is where all the market trading action takes place these days.

More on this topic later.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD for the week traded to 1.1066 highs and 68 pips from crucial 1.1134. Vital levels for EUR/USD above 1.1066 are 1.1101, 1.1134 then 1.1192. Most important is 1.1134 and the minor line at 1.1101. Focus is on the 1.1192 line. If EUR/USD is to trade higher and break 1.1134 then 1.1192 must rise otherwise, the break at 1.1134 hits a brick wall.

Last September, DXY at 114.00’s traded above the 50 year monthly average at 99.00’s. If counting is correct, EUR/USD Vs DXY to match 50 year monthly averages then the EUR/USD 50 year is located at 1.1400’s. EUR/USD break at 1.1134 targets 1.1300’s however many vital lines exist at 1.1300’s and just ahead of the 50 year at 1.1400’s.

Powell’s rate rises sent market prices to extraordinary places. Normality for EUR/USD, currencies and market prices is to trade between 1 to 10 year monthly averages. This has been the market development for the past 10 and 12 years. EUR/USD’s last extraordinary event occurred in 2014 when the ECB embarked on a succession of rate cuts to negative. EUR/USD broke the 10 year average at 1.3200’s and traded 2800 pips to 1.0400’s 1 year later.

Massive overbought GBP/NZD range is located from 2.0287 to 2.0454. No assistance for NZD/USD higher as NZD/USD is again at 0.6100’s where it bounced higher every month for the past 3 months. Same story to overbought EUR/NZD. Next overbought line is located 1.8115.

The only trade strategy is short GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD Vs long NZD/USD.

EUR/AUD next line at 1.6769. Once reason comes to EUR/AUD, next target below is located at 1.6418 and an easy target to achieve.

GBP/AUD next overbought line is positioned at 1.8935. Overbought GBP/CAD 1.6971 to 1.7109.
USD/PLN as posted March 28 and April 5, targets 4.1400’s. Here’s targets from 4.3400’s, Targets 4.4250, 4.2988, 4.2147 and final at 4.1423. USD/PLN traded today 4.1505 and the trade runs + 1900 pips.

Trades begin at entry and ends at target. The track record for money managers to trade EM currencies successfully is 50/ 50. Another extraordinary statistic and from a man who began in FX in 1972 when currencies began the free float.

USD/JPY’s big line at 1.2500 and USD/JPY trades 133.00’s or 800 pips. Longs are not only impossible but many easier trades for much profits exist as short only strategies. Trader opportunity is at lest 600 pips of shorts.

USD/JPY from the weekly. Shorts below 134.43. USD/JPY achieved lows as of this writing to 133.38. This is the 3rd short trade for 100 pips over the last few weeks. And many more to come as we’re just getting started.

GBP/JPY 168.00 ‘s line held as GBP/JPY achieved 165.00 lows. Much more to go for shorts. EUR/JPY traded to the brink at the 148.00 line then dropped 200 pips to 146.00 lows.

As complement to USD/JPY at 125.00.s. GBP/JPY big line line remains 156.00’s and EUR/JPY 135.00’s. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade 1200 and 1300 pips from the lines.

USD/JPY as leader to JPY cross pairs, is long the way forward.

GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD now trades 1200 pip spreads from 1000. Short an overbought USD/CAD brings the spreads back to 1000 pips and not terrible to the overall USD Vs GBP, EUR market.

Brian Twomey

The OIS rate or the indexed swap rate as the formal term asks the question, how much does money cost to borrow and where will the rate trade in 30, 90 and 180 days. SOFR is factored from $1.3 trillion by Repo Rates and trades between 4.72 to 4.87 or 15 basis points.

Ever wondered what destroyed markets? The OIS and Swap markets trade all the money once originated for broader markets and trade in tiny interest rate ranges. At 15 basis points won’t hardly move 1 pip to a currency price. Then we have interest rate swaps from nation to nation and trade within a few basis points.

The major banks, money market funds, pension funds and institutions left the market for the Swap market to trade giant sums of money inside tiny ranges.

As Libor was eliminated, new interest rates were introduced. The FED now uses SOFR, the Secured overnight Funding Rate.

Current Fed Funds 4.83.

30 day SOFR 4.82367

90 day SOFR 4.64596

180 day SOFR 4.33380.

The percentage for Fed Funds at 4.83 to trade 4.82367 in 30 days is 23% or 77% against at 1.00 minus 23.

The percentage for Fed Funds to trade 4.64596 in 90 days is 22% or 78% against at 1.0 minus 22.

The percentage for Fed Funds to trade 4.33380 in 180 days is 20% or 80% against at 1.0 minus 20.

Factor 0.0483 Fed Funds X SOFR Rate = percentages.

Fed Watch Tool

475-500 (Current) percentages Basis Points

Current = 14.6%

1 day 9.95%

1 week 18.1 %

100 minus 14.6 = 85.4% and matches exactly the Fed Watch tool.

100 minus 9.95 = 90.05%. 100 minus 18.1 = 81.9%

500 – 525 Basis Points

Today 85.4%, ,

90.5% for 1 day

81.9 for 1 week

16.8 for 1 month or 83.2% against by 100 minus 16.8

Fall Back Rate

30 day

4.83 to 4.93815 = 23% or 77%

90 day

4.83 to 4.90757 = 23% or 77%

180 day

4.83 to 4.76206 = 23% or 77%.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD 1.1069 = DXY 100.91

EUR/USD 1.1109 = DXY 100.50

EUR/USD 1.1191 = DXY 99.68

EUR/USD 1.1395 = DXY 97.65

EUR/USD 1.1598 = DXY 95.61

EUR/USD 1.1802 = DXY 93.57

DXY 99.68 coincides close to the 50 year monthly average. A break is required for EUR/USD to move higher.

Note EUR/USD 1.1191. This is the average mentioned in the FX weekly. Current EUR/USD break for higher is located at 1.1134. The 1.1191 average is now crucial to questions of break at 1.1134 or short in the vicinity of 1.1134.

If 1.1191 moves lower then the break at 1.1134 becomes a brick wall. For now 1.1109 serves as the most crucial point particularly as the distance to 1.1191 from 1.1109 exist as wide.

I assure all most respectfully and especially to those that downloaded or purchased my Z Score book. Not only does every method in the book work but the methods make tons of money. I use Z Scores all the time over the last 14 years. Because I know it so well, I made changes and adjustments but all concepts are in original form and used today.

What’s so difficult about Z Score X SD + mean. All FX works within the context of -3 and +3. Volume and money supplies works within +3 and -3. The big bank that releases money managers volume figures every Monday uses Z Scores. Interest rates work within +3 and -3.

Fibonacci uses +3 and -3 although this is actually +3 square root of 5 and -3 square root of 5.

Current FX markets are working within +1 and -1. Same for Fibonacci as 1 + square root of 5 and 1 – Square root of 5. Use Fibonacci answer and divide by 2 then we have PI and prices seen as a circle.

1 + square root 5 and divide 2 = 1.618. 1 – square root 5 and divide 2 = 0.618. Where’s the rest of Fibonacci to make trade decisions to entry and targets.

Correlations are easiest to factor by Z Scores. Slops of lines are easiest to factor by Z Scores. Probabilities translate easiest to Z Scores. Instead of saying Fed raises at X Probability, easiest to say won’t raise cause Z Score is to high or will raise due to low Z Score.

Well to 4 or 5 on Amazon that blasted the book without trying to at least take a small short at understanding. caused me to release the book for nothing. I never made a penny from the book but It was never meant as a profit venture.

My reputation as a trader over 20 years is without blemish and I have helped many many. Among the top named traders losing trader money over last years is a different story. I told every one they were crooks and I don’t mind.

Thank you friends

Brian Twomey

PLN/AUD 0.3560, overbought Vs AUD/PLN 2.8089 Oversold

PLN/BGN 0.4241 overbought, BGN/PLN 2.2379 Oversold

PLN/BRL 1.2056 overbought BRL/PLN 0.8314 oversold

PLN/CAD 0.3231 Overbought, CAD/PLN 3.1003 oversold

PLN/CHF 0.2126, overbought, CHF/PLN 4.7028 oversold

PLN/CNY 4.6422 overbought, CNY/PLN 0.6097 oversold

PLN/CZK 5.1108 overbought , CZK/PLN 0.1957 oversold

PLN/DKK 1.6164 overbought, DKK/PLN 0.6187 oversold

PLN/EUR 0.2169 overbought, EUR/PLN 4.6108 oversold

PLN/GBP 0.1921 overbought, GBP/PLN 5.2056 oversold

PLN/HKD 1.8686 overbought, HKD/PLN 0.5351 oversold

PLN/HUF 81.4970 oversold, HUF/PLN 8.0122

PLN/IDR 3561.8743 overbought , IDR/PLN 0.00028

PLN/ILS 0.8713 overbought, ILS/PLN 1.1477 oversold

PLN/INR 19.5430 overbought, INR/PLN 0.05116

PLN/ISK 32.5540 overbought, ISK/PLN 0.03071 oversold

PLN/JPY 31.8643 overbought, JPY/PLN 0.03138

PLN/KRW 316.3529 overbought, KRW/PLN 0.003161

PLN/MXN 4.2861 overbought, MXN/PLN 0.2333 oversold

PLN/MYR 1.0565, MYR/PLN 0.9465

PLN/NOK 2.5268 overbought, NOK/PLN 0.3957

PLN/NZD 0.3885 overbought, NZD/PLN 2.5740 oversold

PLN/PHP 13.3168 overbought, PHP/PLN 0.0750

PLN/RON 1.0716 overbought, RON/PLN 0.9331

PLN/SEK 2.4576 overbought, SEK/PLN 0.4069

PLN/SGD 0.3178 overbought, SGD/PLN 3.1466 oversold

PLN/THB 8.1832 Overbought, THB/PLN 0.1222

PLN/TRY 4.6196 overbought, TRY/PLN 0.2164 oversold

PLN/USD 0.2381, overbought, USD/PLN 4.1999 oversold

PLN/ZAR 4.3152 overbought, ZAR/PLN 0.2317 oversold

Brian Twomey

Within the currency pair line up is 32 currency pairs. This offers 496 combinations of 2 currencies. This includes opposites or reciprocals. EUR/USD for example at 1.0987 opposite USD/EUR = 0.9101. EUR/USD for the ECB Fix on Friday was 1.0978 or opposite USD/EUR at 0.9109.

Factor reciprocal exchange rates by 1 divide exchange rate. USD/PLN at 4.1975 opposite = 0.2382. USD/TRY 19.4096 = TRY/USD 0.05152.

Reciprocal or opposites are used for any financial instrument. SPX 500 for example 4133.52 = 0.00024. WTI 77.95 = 0.0128.

Opposite numbers as reciprocals are smaller yet the context must be understood. EUR/USD and USD/EUR contains a 1 pip difference to price but as a larger context EUR/USD vital break below is 1.0767 Vs USD/EUR 1.0758.The most reliable number is EUR/USD 1.0767 yet USD/EUR 1.0758 must be known due to a possible break.

EUR/USD as a day trade for Monday will trade 55 and 110 pips Vs USD/EUR 46 or 92 pips. See 55 vs 46 or the 9 pip difference but 92 Vs 100 = 18 pips difference or 9 X 2. Most day trades these days see 55 and 46 and slightly above 55 at 70’s, 80’s and rarely the full 92.

EUR/NZD 1.7891 or opposite NZD/EUR at 0.5589. EUR/NZD vital point at 1.7352 = NZD/EUR 0.5766 or 1.7343 or 9 pip difference.

Reciprocal exchange rates always trade constants to each other. NZD/EUR and EUR/NZD will always trade a 9 pips difference as this is factored into the statistics and interest rates. USD/EUR to EUR/USD will always trade a 9 pips difference. EUR/USD may trade 9 pips higher but USD/EUR

Note how to view reciprocal exchange rate in context to other currencies. NZD/CHF 0.5480 Vs NZD/EUR 0.5589 Vs 0.NZD/USD 0.6135. Take 1 divide exchange rates for NZD/CHF = 1.8248 and 1.6299 for NZD/USD. We see EUR/NZD from 1.7891 at the top and a long way to drop.

The 2nd way to trade and view reciprocal exchange rates is to use USD/TRY as an example or any currency pair. USD/TRY as a reciprocal = 0.00027.

USD/TRY 19.4096 = USD/TRY 0.05152. By entering 0.05152 by interest rates, we have a bottom at 0.05125 and a difference of 0.00027. Add 0.05152 to 0.00027 = 0.05179.

Bottom 0.05125 reciprocal = USD/TRY 19.5121 and 0.05179 = 19.3087. The range 19.5121 to 19.3087. TRY/USD 0.00027 but 54 interest rate points = 2034 USD/TRY pips.

All will find this USD/TRY range perfect and most profitable.

Church calls.

Brian Twomey

EUR/AUD big line is located at 1.6500’s and ranges from 1.6500’s to 1.6000’s. AUD/USD bottom is based at any price in the 0.6600’s. EUR/AUD shorts at 1.6400’s and 1.6500’s coincides to AUD/USD longs at 0.6600’s. EUR/AUD’s 22% correlation to AUD/USD confirms the opposite directional relationship to longs and shorts. AS EUR/AUD remains at the highs and AUD/USD at lows, longs and shorts will continuously hold.

EUR/AUD requires a lower price in the 1.6100’s and 1.6200’s minimum to create a larger AUD/USD trading range. Current EUR/AUD at 1.6400’s and 1.6500’s trades at high extremes to AUD/USD at 0.6600’s.

AUD/USD holds a similar situation to GBP/AUD as GBP/AUD at 1.8500’s trades at extremes to AUD/USD. GBP/AUD ‘s big line is located at 1.8600’s and targets easily 1.8300’s then 1.8200’s. A lower GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD offers AUD/USD a wider trade range and more profitable trades.

Oversold AUD/USD runs oversold across the board to EM currencies as AUD/EM. AUD/PLN at 2.8098 trades deeply oversold then AUD/RON, AUD/SEK, AUD/BGN and AUD/DKK. AUD/USD’s only direction and trade is long.

NZD/USD trades as AUD/USD to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD trade at overbought extremes to oversold NZD/USD bottoms at 0.6100’s. Massive overbought GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD must trade lower not only from overbought but to create trade ranges and profit opportunities for NZD/USD.

As usual, trades begin at entry, ends at target and nothing in between. No stops, charts or bore readers with yesterday’s news. Regardless to market talk, we deliver profits.

GBP/NZD’s next line above is located at low 2.0300’s and absolute top at 2.0600;s. Last time 2.0600’s traded was May 2020. GBP/NZD is headed back to 2.0000’s and on the way to the 1.9900’s break. EUR/NZD targets every 100 pips from current 1.7800 to 1.7300’s and 1.7200’s. Good target for the week is 1.7600’s then 1.7500’s.

NZD/USD also runs oversold across EM currencies as NZD/BGN, NZD/BRL, NZD/CNY, NZD/CZK, NZD/DKK, NZD/HUF, NZD/MYR, NZD/PLN, NZD/RON and NZD/SEK.

NZD/USD targets much higher to 0.6300’s and 0.6400’s upon the drop to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.

GBP/CAD ranges from 1.6400’s and 1.6500’s to 1.6800’s and 1.6900’s. GBP/CAD’s 1.6500 to 1.6800’s range held every week for the past 6 weeks. Current overbought GBP/CAD matches overbought to EUR/CAD.

Best GBP trades for the week are GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD. GBP/USD continues to range 300 pips from 1.2200’s to 1.2589.

USD/JPY shorts below 134.43. USD/JPY’s big line above remains low 136.00’s and GBP/JPY at 167.00’s and EUR/JPY at 148.00’s.

EM/ JPY Cross Pairs

JPY cross pairs trade massive overbought across the board as BGN/JPY, DKK/JPY, MXN/JPY, PLN/JPY, RON/JPY,

EUR/USD range is positioned on the topside from 1.0946 to 1.1134. EUR/USD is required to move higher or another complement average is building against 1.1134. Failure to move higher then the break above 1.1100’s will be met with a brick wall.

CHF cross pairs all trade massive oversold to support anchor currencies. Oversold begins with GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF.

USD/EM

USD/NOK trades massive overbought and targets 10.5095 while USD/PLN’s next low target is positioned at 4.1640.

USD/TRY ranges this week from 19.5121 to 19.3087 and trades overbought.
USD/BRL ranges from 5.0761 to 5.0251.

USD/ZAR ranges from 18.2149 to 18.0180.

Current best trade opportunities are located within wide rangers as EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD and USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs most especially GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD movements and pip values to Inflation releases from November 2022 to April 2023 ranged from the best at 286 pips on November 2022 to 71 pips on March 14, 2023.

Since November 2022, daily ranges decreased from all 6 monthly Inflation releases despite the wide differences to Inflation values. The question is open ended to what other economic releases were disclosed on the high EUR/USD trade days of November 10, 2022, December 13, 2022 and January 12, 2023.

Inflation rates to EUR/USD daily ranges was assessed yet the actual responses to the data upon release was minimal in comparison to 8:00 am EST hourly time frames. EUR/USD for example traded 286 pips on November 10, 2022 and 18 pips for the actual release while the Inflation Rate traveled from 7.7 to 7.1 or a difference of 0.6 from the previous month.

Inflation rates were assessed not for direction up or down but for ranges in comparison to EUR/USD responses and range movements.

EUR/USD on December 13, 2022 traded 145 pips for the day, 122 pips for the release yet the difference to Inflation rates was 0.6 and the exact same difference at 0.6 for the November 10 release.

February 14, 2023 experienced a 0.4 difference to Inflation rates from 6.4 to 6.0 and EUR/USD traded 87 pips for the release and 97 pips for the day.

The widest difference to Inflation rates was March 14 at a full 1 point from 6.0 to 5.0 yet EUR/USD traded 54 pips upon the release and 71 pips for the day.

Following are Inflation releases, differences and EUR/USD responses.

November 10, 2022. Inflation 7.7 and 7.1 or 0.6 difference. EUR/USD traded 16 pips for the immediate response and 286 pips for the day.

December 13, 2022. Inflation 7.1 and 6.5 or 0.6 difference. EUR/USD traded 122 pips for the immediate release and 145 pip for the day.

January 12, 2023. Inflation 6.5 and 6.4 or 0.1 difference. EUR/USD traded 111 pips for the immediate release and 140 pips for the day.

February 14, 2023. Inflation 6.4 and 6.0 or a difference of 0.4. EUR/USD traded 87 pips for the immediate release and 97 pips for the day.

March 14, 2023. Inflation 6.0 and 5.0 or a difference of 1.0 and a full point. EUR/USD traded 54 pips for the immediate response and 71 pip for the day.

April 12, 2023. 5.0 and 5.1 or a difference of 0.1. EUR/USD traded 70 pips for the immediate response and 92 pips for the day.

As Inflation rates decreased from 7.7 to 5.0 since November 2022, EUR/USD traded reduced ranges to every release.

The original research questions was why are views so high for Inflation day and are views from actual traders or for those practicing economics.

Last to the research question. Fxstreet received more view than yahoo, Bloomberg ad Thomson Reuters. Are traders more unprepared today than years past. The answer must be absolutely.

Brian Twomey

EUR/AUD since December/ January traveled 1200 pips from 1.5200’s to 1.6400’s and April traded 1.6000 to 1.6400’s. AUD/USD since December / January dropped 600 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.6500 then traded 0.6500 to 0.6800’s or 300 pips for March and April. AUD/USD traded 150 pips per month or 7.5 pips per day.

EUR/AUD remains Correlated to EUR/USD at 95% and explains EUR/AUD’s rise along with EUR/USD since December/ January. The AUD/USD -22% correlation to EUR/AUD reveals an AUD/USD rise would greatly assist to EUR/AUD’s drop.

The lightweight in the 3 way triangulation is clearly AUD/USD as AUD/USD’s range dopped to barely 150 pips and 200 pip weeks while AUD/USD should trade straight up easily to the 0.6800’s and 0.6900’s target at minimum.

Further to the 3 way triangulation is seen most specifically in averages from 5 to 50 days for EUR/USD,

EUR/AUD and AUD/USD as all trade within the confines of averages from 5 to 50 days.

The vast majority of currency pairs now trade within the parameters from 5 to 253 day averages to include USD/JPY at the 200 and 253 day. The analysis from 5 to 253 day averages is the same concept as highlighted last week. Currency pair prices entered ranges and ranges is what to expect for the next months.

EUR/AUD for next week targets 1.6165 and 1.6082. Any price at 1.6400’s is acceptable for short entries.

EUR/USD trades the same story as last week from 1.0765, 1.0945, 1.1134, 1.1375 and 1.1623. EUR/USD above 1.1134 will be met with a brick wall at 1.1300’s. The price settle to EUR/USD was a 6 to 7 month event from 0.9500’s. The long only strategy highlighted over past months was the result to trade until EUR/USD reached settlement. The only trade concept currently is range trading.

USD/JPY brick wall is located at many points at 136.00’s beginning at 136.06 to the 200 day average at 136.59. USD/JPY 136.00 represents the mid point from the drop at 151.00’s to 127.00’s. The strategy is short while we wait for the big break at 134.28 to trade to target 133.06 then 132.00’s and much further down.

The BOJ is continually viewed from a monetary policy perspective as a north/ South divide on the BOJ board. The BOJ monetary policy derives and developed from a long tradition in Japan from The Edo period to Meiji to modern day

Its a north/ South power center Divide as agriculture Vs Industrialization regions
Within Japan are 47 Prefectures, 9 regions and big cities as Osaka, Kyoto, Tokyo. The city of Osaka was most important historically as Japan’s Financial center in the Japanese North. Not only was Osaka a port city but its the traditional location for USD/JPY to trade on the Osaka exchanges.

Rice and markets and capitalism developments started in Osaka Not one BOJ Head was appointed from Osaka.

The 1860’s South Japan hijacked BOJ from the north and reigned supreme ever since. Changes to monetary policy must derive from a majority of South Members otherwise monetary policy runs to its last breath. The BOJ is most active when the Board is filled with a majority of southern members. The current BOJ board is deadlocked.

GBP/CAD at current upper 1.6700’s approaches crucial 1.6800’s and overbought at 1.6800’s.
GBP/USD big break for 1.2700’s is now located at 1.2585. Last Friday, GBP/USD traded 1.2545 and highs this week at 1.2473. GBP/USD’s range remain 1.2236, 1.2250 to 1.2585.

DXY overbought next week begins at 102.00’s as DXY trades lower to vital 99.00’s and 98.00’s at thr 50 year monthly averages.

GBP/AUD top remains at 1.8545 on a short only strategy to target 1.8200’s.

GBP/JPY tops are located at 168.18 to 168.48. GBP/JPY requires a break at 164.23 to target 163.11 and 162.57. EUR/JPY 144.46 break for lower to target 141.00. Both GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade massive overbought on a short only strategy. CAD/JPY must break 99.61 for lower and the same story as last week.

GBP/NZD short to 1.9961 while EUR/NZD targets 1.7601 and 1.7489. Both trade massive overbought and easy short trades.

EM

USD/TRY ranges 19.5121 to 19.3087.

USD/BRL 5.0761 – 5.0251. USD/PLN 4.2293 to 4.1693.

USD/CZK was the big winner last week at USD/EM. Current range for next week 21.8388 to 21.6561.

USD/CNY 6.8873 to 6.8539.

USD/HUF 349.2854 to 340.9162.

Brian Twomey

All trades as posted Sunday

USD/BGN Target 1.7888, actual 1.7861, from 1.7789. + 72 pips

USD/BRL from 4.9352, Targets 4.9811 and final at 5.0270. Highs 4.9960, Trade Runs +608 pips

CNY/BRL from 0.7145 targets 0.7191, 0.7248 and final at 0.7304. Highs 0.7264, Trade Runs +119 pips

USD/CNY  overbought from 6.8715. Here’s ranges 6.8794 – 6.8568. Range 6.8819 – 6.8670

USD/CZK oversold from 21.2165 to target 21.2788 then 21.3653. Highs 21.4630, Target achieved, + 1488 pips.

USD/DKK from 6.7761 targets 6.8036 Max. Highs 6.8306. Target achieved, + 275 pips.

USD/HUF from 339.77 targets 343.07 Max. Highs 341.96, Trade Ran 219 pips.

USD/PLN from 4.2208 targets 4.2595. Highs 4.2430, Trade Runs +222 pips

USD/RON from 4.4941 targets 4.5089. Highs 4.5205. Target achieved. Trade Ran +148 pips.

USD/SEK from 10.3313 targets 10.3710. Highs 10.3765, Perfect. Target achieved, Trade Ran +397 pips.

USD/TRY overbought from 19.3613, targets 19.2738 ,Lows 19.2979

Total pips 3548 and 9 trades

Brian Twomey

Yesterday BOJ:

USD/JPY Yesterday from BOJ: 134.87, 134.06, 133.79, 132.99, Vs 127.90 and 140.24

My Trade for Monday

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 133.93

Most Important 133.34 and 133.84 Vs 134.01, 134.09, 134.17, 134.26, 134.43, 134.51, 134.60

Bottom 133.26 achieves by 133.42 and 133.59

Upper Target 134.60

Continuation Fail 134.26

Within the 7 hour time frame to trade yesterday: 133.73 – 134.56. Within 24 hours yesterday 133.70 – 134.56

All trading done within the 7 hour time frame.

BOJ Today: 135.67, 134.45, 134.18 Vs 127.60 and 141.38

My trade Today

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 134.32

Most Important 133.73 and 134.24 Vs 134.40, 134.49, 134.57, 134.66, 134.83, 134.91, 135.00

Bottom 133.64 achieves by 133.81 and 133.98

Upper Target 135.00

Continuation Fail 134.49.

BOJ offers wide parameters while I offer actual trades based on others factors. The topside and lowest numbers is how the Japanese view exchange rates but I assure all, all central banks view own exchange rates in wide ranges. For example. Today’s 127.60 ranged in the last 2 weeks as 121.00 bottoms and highs at 128.00’s

Brian Twomey

The next trade range for USD/TRY is located from 19.5121 to 19.2715. Today traded 19.5713 to 19.2979. Weekly target 19.2600’s.

2400 USD/TRY pips is expected to trade from today’s close at 19.3911 and from 0.00064 TRY/USD pip range. The TRY/USD pip range is located from 0.05189 to 0.05125 and reverses as 19.5121 to 19.2715.

Short the highs and long the lows and everyday is a big payday using the reverse exchange rates and interest rates. The same methods are used for wide range EM movers BRL, DKK, RON, PLN, ZAR. HUF, BGN. Any currency pair on the planet is factored the same way and in any combination possible.

How about PLN/HUF from 80.378 and taken from the current market rate.

Range 80.9716 to 79.8084 from 0.01253 and 0.01235 or 0.00009. By using a current market rate, the range top and bottom may or may trade close. Proper is to use FIX prices for accuracy.

Brian Twomey

Japanese stock markets close at 3 pm Japan time and 1:00 am EST. Japanese Interest rates are released at 5:15 pm or 4:00 am EST.

Thursday morning into Friday at 4:am, every currency on the planet is forecasted for Friday and Monday trade. Results below are factored from Friday close prices and today’s Fix Prices. Not only is Japanese interest rates a preeminent forecast but they beat the most vital ECB and Fed Interest rates to release times and exchange rate forecasts by 1 day. And the process is so much easier. to factor.

To forecast previous exchange rates particularly JPY cross pairs and USD/JPY, incorporated Tibor, Euroyen and Japanese Bond Yields. Found at separate places at the Japanese Bankers Association, and market data. The Japanese are no different from BOC and the Bank of Canada as Canada uses Corra, Money Market Finance Rate and Yields.

Forecasts are tops, bottoms and targets.

USD/JPY Today

134.87, 134.06, 133.79, 132.99, Vs 127.90 and 140.24

USD/JPY Friday close

134.66, 133.86, 133.59, 132.79 Vs 127.71 and 140.03

Highs 134.21, lows 133.70

GBP/JPY Today

167.46, 166.45, 166.12, 165.12 Vs 158.80 and 174.12

GBP/JPY close

167.15, 166.14, 165.81, 164.81 Vs 158.51 and 173.80

Highs 166.55, lows 165.67

EUR/JPY Today

148.20, 147.31, 147.02, 146.13 Vs 140.54 and 154.10

EUR/JPY Friday

148.03, 147.14, 146.85, 145.97 Vs 145.97 and 153.92

Highs 147.44, Lows 146.78

EUR/USD Today

1.1065, 1.0998, 1.0977, 1.0911 Vs 1.0493 and 1.1505

EUR/USD Friday

1.1069, 1.1002, 1.0981, 1.0915 Vs 1.0497 and 1.1509

Highs 1.1075 and 1.0999, Lows 1.0961

AUD/USD Today

0.66 + +, 0.6760, 0.6719, 0.6706 Vs 0.6410 and 0.7029

AUD/USD Friday

0.6754, 0.6713, 0.6700, 0.66 0, Vs 0.6405 and 0.7023

Highs 0.6805 and 0.6718, Lows 0.6694 and 0.6689.

Brian Twomey

On the G28 side, oversold applies to DXY as most vital then USD/CHF, CHF cross pairs, USD/CAD. Not USD/JPY.

DXY upside from 101.58 to overbought at 103.00’s is about 150 pips if it trades to 103.00’s.

EM currencies across the board as USD/EM are deeply oversold.

As targets achieve destinations then quickly reverse short

USD/BGN from 1.7789 targets easily 1.7861 then 1.7955.

USD/BRL targets 4.9352, 4.9811 and final at 5.0270.

CNY/BRL for the BRIC arrangement, oversold from 0.7145 targets 0.7191, 0.7248 and final at 0.7304.

USD/CNY overbought from 6.8715. Here’s ranges 6.8794 – 6.8568

USD/CZK oversold from 21.2165 to target 21.2788 then 21.3653

USD/DKK from 6.7761 targets 6.8036 Max.

USD/HUF from 339.77 targets 343.07 Max.

USD/PHP and USD/MYR overbought

USD/NOK

USD/PLN from 4.2208 targets 4.2595

USD/RON from 4.4941 targets 4.5089. Not much happening with USD/RON and USD/MYR

USD/SEK from 10.3313 targets 10.3710

USD/TRY overbought from 19.3613, targets 19.2738 ,

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD achieved target at 1.1053 from 1.0500’s for +500 pips and the 2nd of a +500 pip trade for the year. EUR/USD profits run 1000 pips for long term trades and not to include weekly targets. Since January and reported targets, EUR/USD ranged 594 pips from 1.0481 to 1.1075 highs. The 1000 pip profits represented 2 times the range to beat the range.

Since December and January, posted long term target trade profits alone must be in the vicinity of 10 and 15, 000 pips.

The EUR/USD price is now settled which means long term trades no longer exists as EUR/USD will spend its time ranging. The EUR/USD price traveled from 2 long term trend trades to current range trades over a 3 -4 month period.

Currency prices cycle over a 2 year period. Once every 2 years from January to April, a massive deviation occurs from anchor pairs such as EUR/USD to cross pairs. The best movements, trades, profits and volatility for the 2 year period is seen during this January to April period. Trades and profits come easily. Each trade is valued at 5, 8 and 1000 pips and 2 click requirements for entry and exit.

The general term volatility is defined as an expansion of averages between anchor pairs and cross pairs to allow 5 and 1000 pip trades. Prices move exceedingly fast during this period to allow for targets to achieve destinations quickly but also to allow for averages to normalize.

Volatility in pip terms is defined as a 0.5 expansion to prices. For past January to April periods, extra prices are added in the vicinity from 150 to 250 pips and this includes wide range currencies GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD.

Much more to volatility in pip terms is added to EM currencies. The USD/PLN trade to target 4.1400’s from 4.3400’s traveled 1600 pips in 9 trade days to 4.1800’s. The highs from 4.4700’s to 4.1800’s traveled 2900 pips in 22 days. EM currencies are added roughly 3 to 500 pips to expansions or double G28 currencies.

The end result at periods ends is a contraction to averages and volatility then back to normal to 100 and 200 pip range trades for the next 1 year and 9 months.

Here’s EUR/USD for example: 1.0734 Vs 1.0940, 1.0940 V 1.1132, 1.1132 Vs 1.1374, 1.1374 to 1.1623. Ranges are found at 206 pips, 192, 242 and 249. The EUR/USD price settled.

The expansion and contraction to averages is also seen from currency pair spread relationships. GBP/NZD vs EUR/NZD for example at current 2200 pips will expand to 2600 to allow GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD to range trade as well as to normalize Vs each other. The GBP/NZD target at 1.9700’s and EUR/NZD at 1.7200’s expands the relationship to 2500 pips and normalized.

GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD spread at current 2115 pips will contract to 2076 upon target completion at GBP/AUD 1.8200’s and EUR/AUD at 1.6100’s. Both GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD are on the way back to normal 1800 pip spreads to allow for range trading.

Trades are defined as most G28 currency pairs and EM as every currency pair price on the planet is affected by this rare every 2 year event. GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD are traditional range currencies as both serve the middle positions within the anchor pair universe. GBP/CAD since December held the range from 1.6800’s to 1.6500’s and allowed for multiple range trades.

Expected for April and possibly into May is to complete outstanding targets. Anchor pairs remain such as GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD , USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. Best trades for profit are USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs

The week

GBP/USD remains in long drop mode as GBP trades from 1.2213 – 1.2581 and targets 1.2728. Yet to break is 1.2559 and 1.2570. Overall 1.2581 is a rising line. We want a rising price into a falling line to ensure GBP/USD breaks higher to target. GBP/USD remain oversold as longs remain safe.

USD/JPY big line for higher is located at 134.13. USD/JPY again trades to the brink. Target at 132.19 achieves this week easily.

GBP/CAD ranges from 1.6495, 1.6569 Vs 1.6826, 1.6933. Longs and shorts from 1.6569 to 1.6826. Since December, GBP/CAD 1.6800’s traded 3 times then dropped.

EUR/USD begins its seasonal upswing in the April / May period and runs to November/ December then the big January drop.

XAU/USD top at 2050.00 reported Thursday traded to 2048.00. XAU/USD top for the week is located from 2055.00 to 2058. 00.

AUD/USD must break 0.6718 to range trade from 0.6718 to 0.6967 and first targets at 0.6805 and 0.6908.
EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD remain deeply overbought. The same concept in reverse is AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP are equally oversold. This means AUD/USD in on a long only strategy until GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD achieves targets at 300 pips lower.

NZD/USD must break 0.6217 to trade 0.6217 to 0.6459 and targets 0.6282 and 0.6401.
NZD/USD holds the same story as AUD/USD. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD trade overbought as NZD/EUR and NZD/GBP trade oversold. Long NZD/USD is the only strategy.

USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs trade massive oversold. GBP/CHF is the best trade trade however all are heading higher.

USD/CAD also trades massive oversold. Watch CAD/JPY lower at 99.31.

EUR/GBP traded 97 pips last week and 77 pips 2 weeks ago.

WTI traded 4 points last week and 2 points shy of the normal 6 point weeks. The VIX traded 2.98 points last week Vs 1.73 points for the prior week. WTI and VIX are the same instruments as VIX trades 1/2 WTI

Brian Twomey .