EUR/USD achieved target at 1.1053 from 1.0500’s for +500 pips and the 2nd of a +500 pip trade for the year. EUR/USD profits run 1000 pips for long term trades and not to include weekly targets. Since January and reported targets, EUR/USD ranged 594 pips from 1.0481 to 1.1075 highs. The 1000 pip profits represented 2 times the range to beat the range.
Since December and January, posted long term target trade profits alone must be in the vicinity of 10 and 15, 000 pips.
The EUR/USD price is now settled which means long term trades no longer exists as EUR/USD will spend its time ranging. The EUR/USD price traveled from 2 long term trend trades to current range trades over a 3 -4 month period.
Currency prices cycle over a 2 year period. Once every 2 years from January to April, a massive deviation occurs from anchor pairs such as EUR/USD to cross pairs. The best movements, trades, profits and volatility for the 2 year period is seen during this January to April period. Trades and profits come easily. Each trade is valued at 5, 8 and 1000 pips and 2 click requirements for entry and exit.
The general term volatility is defined as an expansion of averages between anchor pairs and cross pairs to allow 5 and 1000 pip trades. Prices move exceedingly fast during this period to allow for targets to achieve destinations quickly but also to allow for averages to normalize.
Volatility in pip terms is defined as a 0.5 expansion to prices. For past January to April periods, extra prices are added in the vicinity from 150 to 250 pips and this includes wide range currencies GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD.
Much more to volatility in pip terms is added to EM currencies. The USD/PLN trade to target 4.1400’s from 4.3400’s traveled 1600 pips in 9 trade days to 4.1800’s. The highs from 4.4700’s to 4.1800’s traveled 2900 pips in 22 days. EM currencies are added roughly 3 to 500 pips to expansions or double G28 currencies.
The end result at periods ends is a contraction to averages and volatility then back to normal to 100 and 200 pip range trades for the next 1 year and 9 months.
Here’s EUR/USD for example: 1.0734 Vs 1.0940, 1.0940 V 1.1132, 1.1132 Vs 1.1374, 1.1374 to 1.1623. Ranges are found at 206 pips, 192, 242 and 249. The EUR/USD price settled.
The expansion and contraction to averages is also seen from currency pair spread relationships. GBP/NZD vs EUR/NZD for example at current 2200 pips will expand to 2600 to allow GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD to range trade as well as to normalize Vs each other. The GBP/NZD target at 1.9700’s and EUR/NZD at 1.7200’s expands the relationship to 2500 pips and normalized.
GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD spread at current 2115 pips will contract to 2076 upon target completion at GBP/AUD 1.8200’s and EUR/AUD at 1.6100’s. Both GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD are on the way back to normal 1800 pip spreads to allow for range trading.
Trades are defined as most G28 currency pairs and EM as every currency pair price on the planet is affected by this rare every 2 year event. GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD are traditional range currencies as both serve the middle positions within the anchor pair universe. GBP/CAD since December held the range from 1.6800’s to 1.6500’s and allowed for multiple range trades.
Expected for April and possibly into May is to complete outstanding targets. Anchor pairs remain such as GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD , USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. Best trades for profit are USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs
GBP/USD remains in long drop mode as GBP trades from 1.2213 – 1.2581 and targets 1.2728. Yet to break is 1.2559 and 1.2570. Overall 1.2581 is a rising line. We want a rising price into a falling line to ensure GBP/USD breaks higher to target. GBP/USD remain oversold as longs remain safe.
USD/JPY big line for higher is located at 134.13. USD/JPY again trades to the brink. Target at 132.19 achieves this week easily.
GBP/CAD ranges from 1.6495, 1.6569 Vs 1.6826, 1.6933. Longs and shorts from 1.6569 to 1.6826. Since December, GBP/CAD 1.6800’s traded 3 times then dropped.
EUR/USD begins its seasonal upswing in the April / May period and runs to November/ December then the big January drop.
XAU/USD top at 2050.00 reported Thursday traded to 2048.00. XAU/USD top for the week is located from 2055.00 to 2058. 00.
AUD/USD must break 0.6718 to range trade from 0.6718 to 0.6967 and first targets at 0.6805 and 0.6908.
EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD remain deeply overbought. The same concept in reverse is AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP are equally oversold. This means AUD/USD in on a long only strategy until GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD achieves targets at 300 pips lower.
NZD/USD must break 0.6217 to trade 0.6217 to 0.6459 and targets 0.6282 and 0.6401.
NZD/USD holds the same story as AUD/USD. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD trade overbought as NZD/EUR and NZD/GBP trade oversold. Long NZD/USD is the only strategy.
USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs trade massive oversold. GBP/CHF is the best trade trade however all are heading higher.
USD/CAD also trades massive oversold. Watch CAD/JPY lower at 99.31.
EUR/GBP traded 97 pips last week and 77 pips 2 weeks ago.
WTI traded 4 points last week and 2 points shy of the normal 6 point weeks. The VIX traded 2.98 points last week Vs 1.73 points for the prior week. WTI and VIX are the same instruments as VIX trades 1/2 WTI
Brian Twomey .