TODD PARROTT’S

CAROLINA HARP FEST

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Join us OCTOBER 18th-21st in CONCORD, NC for a great time of fun and learning
with some of today’s best harmonica players and teachers.
THE EVENT KICKS OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING, OCTOBER 18th, WITH AN OPEN MIC BLUES JAM, GIVING YOU 4 NIGHTS OF GREAT MUSIC, followed by 3 DAYS of seminars, hangout time with the instructors, more jams and evening performances, OCTOBER 19th, 20th and 21st!

Harmonica players of all levels are welcome and encouraged to attend, from beginners to advanced.  2023 offers an amazing line-up of super knowledgeable, approachable, pro-level instructors and players who are excited and happy to work with you.

The location for the 2023 Carolina Harp Fest is: 7568 Ruben Linker Road Northwest, Concord, NC 28027.  This is a multi-purpose facility (located across from Valor Preparatory Academy) and is equipped with a kitchen, multiple classroom spaces, PA system, instruments, professional lighting and vendor space, and is located 1 mile from all hotels and tons of restaurants.  Food and drinks are permitted inside the facility at all times.  If you’re traveling with family, there are lots of attractions in the area as well.  We’re located on the same I-85 exit as the NASCAR Charlotte Motor Speedway, Concord Mills Mall, Sea Life Aquarium, K-1 Speed Indoor Go-Kart Racing, and Great Wolf Lodge.   Also nearby is Carowinds Amusement Park, Hendrick Motorsports Museum, and The Depot At Gibson Mill – the largest antique mall in the southeastern United States. 

Click the button below to register at the early bird rate of $208.  If you prefer,
you may save $9 by using an alternate payment method for the amount of $199. 
Should you choose to pay by check or other method, further instructions will be 
provided at the end of the registration process.
Your registration cost includes admission to all daily seminars and evening shows.

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER – $208

Brian Twomey

PPI For Japan was higher yesterday. PPI today for the United States was higher today. Next week comes GDP and all central banks will report the exact same to higher or lower.

The speculation to the commonality of economic releases is United States GDP. I’m in search of the BOJ GDP index but this is a monster to find on the BOJ site. The question is how is it calculated and the answer will reveal the same inputs and calculations for all central banks.

So what is monetary policy ? No such concept exists.

Never a need to drill down to the actual releases because it doesn’t profit and its truly inane information. Inflation minus rents for example. How does this profit.

The only need to know is will the release report higher or lower then traders gain fast knowledge to trading the day trade release.

Amazing in all the years of markets, nobody ever connected the economic releases. Today is not expected because if laziness.

BOJ Info below

The set of explanatory variables for real imports is different from that for nominal imports
in that nominal effective exchange rate is replaced by real effective exchange rate and
that the oil price, reflecting the fluctuation of import deflator, is removed.

Real imports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × Real effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼2 × Real exports [y/y chg.]
+𝛼3 × Real imports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Real exports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × U. S. GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of U. S.
+𝛼2 × EU GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of EU
+𝛼3 × Asia and Pacific GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of Asia and Pacific
+𝛼4 × Real effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼5 × Real exports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Nominal imports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × Crude oil prices [y/y chg.] + 𝛼2 × Nominal effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼3 × Nominal exports [1-quarter lag, y/y chg.]
+𝛼4 × Nominal imports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Nominal exports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × U. S. GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of U. S.
+𝛼2 × EU GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of EU
+𝛼3 × Asia and Pacific GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of Asia and Pacific
+𝛼4 × Nominal effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼5 × Crude oil prices [y/y chg.]
+𝛼6 × Nominal exports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Brian Twomey

Last week the BOJ informed USD/JPY ranges would trade 201 pips. Broken down, 100.5, 50.25, 25.12, 12.56, 6.28. 3.14. Add 3.14 to 6.28 = 9.42.

USD/JPY day trade pips today = 73 pips = 36.5, 18.25, 9.12.

Yesterday 72 pips = 36, 18, 9.

USD/JPY 73 pip Upside levels today: 144.82, 144.91, 145.00, 145.09, 145.18, 145.27, 145.36, 145.46

USD/JPY trades day trades every 9 pips. The BOJ informed last Friday, day trades would run every 9 pips.

EUR/USD Upside levels today and practically every day at 55 pips = 27, 13, 6.5.

1.1002, 1.1009, 1.1016, 1.1023, 1.1030, 1.1037, 1.1044, 1.1051.

EUR/USD every 7 pips V USD/JPY every 9 and 2 pip differential. This is pretty much a permanent trade condition.

EUR/JPY today 80 day trade pips = 40, 20, 10. Normally 79 pips = 39.5, 19.75, 9.87

EUR/JPY Upside levels today = 159.25, 159.35, 159.45, 159.55, 159.65, 159.75, 159.85, 159.95.

EUR/USD Every 7 pips, USD/JPY every 9 pips, EUR/JPY every 10 or 9 pips. EUR/USD Differential Vs EUR/JPY = 2 or 3 pips. And fairly permanent trade condition.

The ECB in 2016 imposed Day trades to run from 2:30 am EST to 10:00 am EST. BOJ releases vital trade information at 4 ish am. My factor to USD/JPY and day trades is actually better than the BOJ as we are already trading 4 am BOJ trade information at 2:30 am.

Best trades for profit from allowable movements: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD.

As the BOJ releases trade information, next post will look at ranges and pip differentials for USD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

Brian Twomey