USD/JPY achieved highs October 31 at 151.72 and BOJ failed to intervene. As informed from previous posts, the BOJ won’t intervene. To date, the BOJ not only failed to intervene but remains dead silent to USD/JPY levels. And at the most important end of month trade time. The BOJ message is trade is just fine as well as BOJ levels.
Ueda Man spoke November 6 and reiterated information from the BOJ’s latest Economic Outlook. The job of Central bank members and chairpersons is to fly around the respesctive nation delivering the lastest Economic reports previously published.
News and new information is never found nor is the Economic information able to move markets.
If the latest Economic report was read then no need exists to listen to central bank speeches.
For the first 20 days of October, Imports = 6.691, 888 Vs Exports 5, 797, 441 or a difference of 894, 447. Does this look even remotely close to intervention.
While the trade crowds were again wrong to intervention, USD/JPY Imports and Exports from October 22 to 28 were completed at 149.03.
From 29th to November 4, trade was completed at 149.70. Current trade from November 5 to 11th, trade was done at 149.99. Last, November 12 to 18 = trade at 150.26.
Imports and Exports were completed fairly close to USD/JPY market rates. No intervention.
While GDP, Interest rates and Inflation are important Economic releases, Import and Export lines nullifies the requirement to focus on GDP, interest rates and Inflation as GDP, interest rates and Inflation direction and positions are known miles in advance.
If Import and Export lines are known, exclude the reading and focus on Monetary Policy statements as statements reiterates economic information already known.
GDP for example will remain low for Western nations, Inflation trades at the highs and an excruciating slow grind lower while Interest rates trade at current levels without a drop in sight.
Market exchange rate levels trade on Interest rates and Imports and Exports. Everything else is irrelevant.
What serves as analysis today is found in the word Corrigendum or the plural Corrigenda and defined by Webster’s as an error in a printed work discovered after printing.
Next week is the time in the 6 week period to release trade data. USD/JPY and the BOJ will report excellent trade data while the west remains in Economic disaster mode.
The Week
USD/JPY achieved target at 150.50 from 149.32 then decided to travel to higher overbought to reach highs at 151.17.
USD/JPY overall trades in a massive 400 pip range. The top USD/JPY line is located at 152.53 and overbought begins at any price above 150.86. Averages for USD/JPY are moving slow yet higher.
USD/JPY next week targets 150.02 easily then 149.60.
JPY Cross Pairs
JPY cross pairs for the past 3 weeks began as oversold and all traded higher. Next week begins massive overbought to include CHF/JPY. CHF/JPY targets 165.00’s, NZD/JPY low 88.00’s and low 95.00’s for AUD/JPY.
EUR/JPY targets 159.00’s and GBP/JPY 183.00’s.
If JPY cross pairs remain at current elevated levels then free money, free trades exist.
EUR/USD next week targets 1.0787 at the highs. As usual, longs trade next week.
GBP/USD must cross 1.2339 to target 1.2449.
EUR/AUD trades deeply overbought at 1.6700’s and targets low 1.6500’s easily.
GBP/AUD moves lower on a break at 1.9112. EUR/AUD is the better trade.
AUD/USD back to upper 0.6400’s. NZD/USD targets break of 0.5961 then to 0.6030.
GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD begin next week severely overbought and fairly range bound for AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD.
USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs trade fairly neutral at most vital averages. USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs require a move over the next 2 days to implement trades.
GBP/NZD traded 253 pips this week and range bound for GBP/NZD. The trade strategy for GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD is short and short highs. GBP/NZD longs and shorts are located at 2.0701.
If current levels hold, next week trades look excellent and highly profitable.
Brian Twomey
Tianzuida ON TRADING 