BOJ Imports and Exports Calculations

PPI For Japan was higher yesterday. PPI today for the United States was higher today. Next week comes GDP and all central banks will report the exact same to higher or lower.

The speculation to the commonality of economic releases is United States GDP. I’m in search of the BOJ GDP index but this is a monster to find on the BOJ site. The question is how is it calculated and the answer will reveal the same inputs and calculations for all central banks.

So what is monetary policy ? No such concept exists.

Never a need to drill down to the actual releases because it doesn’t profit and its truly inane information. Inflation minus rents for example. How does this profit.

The only need to know is will the release report higher or lower then traders gain fast knowledge to trading the day trade release.

Amazing in all the years of markets, nobody ever connected the economic releases. Today is not expected because if laziness.

BOJ Info below

The set of explanatory variables for real imports is different from that for nominal imports
in that nominal effective exchange rate is replaced by real effective exchange rate and
that the oil price, reflecting the fluctuation of import deflator, is removed.

Real imports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × Real effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼2 × Real exports [y/y chg.]
+𝛼3 × Real imports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Real exports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × U. S. GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of U. S.
+𝛼2 × EU GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of EU
+𝛼3 × Asia and Pacific GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of Asia and Pacific
+𝛼4 × Real effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼5 × Real exports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Nominal imports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × Crude oil prices [y/y chg.] + 𝛼2 × Nominal effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼3 × Nominal exports [1-quarter lag, y/y chg.]
+𝛼4 × Nominal imports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Nominal exports [y/y chg.]
= 𝛼1 × U. S. GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of U. S.
+𝛼2 × EU GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of EU
+𝛼3 × Asia and Pacific GDP growth [y/y chg.] × Export share of Asia and Pacific
+𝛼4 × Nominal effective exchange rate [y/y chg.]
+𝛼5 × Crude oil prices [y/y chg.]
+𝛼6 × Nominal exports [4-quarter lag, y/y chg.] + Constant

Brian Twomey