USD/CZK Shorts below 21.6688 to target 21.5358, 21.4692 and 21.4027

USD/HUF Shorts below 344.1206 to target 340.28, 338.36, 336.45

USD/MYR Short below 4.5507 to target 4.5372, 4.5236, 4.4965

USD/SGD Short below 1.3355 to target 1.3339, 1.3323, 1.3290, Caution 1.3274

USD/THB Short below 34.5102 to target 34.4616, 34.4130, 34.3158

USD/KRW Short below 1289.37 to target 1286.20, 1283.04, 1276.71

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly

DXY is held this week by 100.39 and 101.07. A hold at 101.07 then DXY has easy ability to reach 102.00. Below 101.07, places DXY in a 100.39 to 101.07 range and lower weekly target at 99.43 and 99.35.

DXY is expected this week to achieve the 99.00 lows then the 101.07 and 100.39 lines will provide upper resistance next week in order for DXY to begin targets at 98.00’s. Overall, DXY traded an easy and consistent run since the 114.00 top last September to 100.00 lows in April. Since April, DXY traded a 500 pips range from 104.00 to 99.00’s.


Focus on the BOJ will remain as the BOJ embarked on an extraordinary set of circumstances to ovethaul the views and methodologies to factor with intense focus to Japan’s financial system. Not only is the old BOJ gone but the new and improved BOJ is working on upgrades to the existing changes as well as a long term view to overall consumer and financial prices.

The only threats to the BOJ is economic problems to the larger economies of Europe and the United States as well as affects to Japan’s trade balance to Imports and exports. USD/JPY is most prone to radical exchange rate changes and adjustments to imports and exports. Imports and exports is the main focus every month as this category decides monthly changes to USD/JPY and possible intervention.

In the BOJ statement, we will hear a drumbeat of the word prices as this concept is most watched and viewed by the BOJ from Japan’s Statistics as well as Europe and the United States.

USD/JPY begins the week deeply overbought and targets a break at 140.90 for much lower prices. Not only is USD/JPY overbought from a weekly perspective but severely overbought from longer term averages. Focus is the break lower at 138.77 and continuation of short only strategies.

USD/JPY Correlations

JPY cross pair Correlations continues as overall market problems. GBP/JPY Vs USD/JPY runs +93% and GBP/USD Vs GBP/JPY also runs +96%. USD/JPY Vs EUR/JPY runs +91% and EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY at +89%.

The Correlational deadlock has held for months and a breakout is required to determine ownership of JPY cross pairs by either USD/JPY or EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Most vital to the breakout is JPY cross pairs will begin progress to long term targets rather than trade in large 500 pip ranges.

EUR/JPY vital break is located at 152.41 to target miles lower. EUR/JPY hit the break point 2 weeks ago at 153.00’s and traveled to 158.00 highs. EUR/JPY trades overbought for the week and targets a break at 156.43 to trade 155.00’s. Overall, EUR/JPY must produce progress to the 152.99 break.

USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs continues a short only strategy due to massive overbought from lower averages.

GBP/JPY for the past 5 weeks traded 500 pips from 179.00’s to 184.00. We’re short again for the week to target 179.00’s. Miles lower for GBP/JPY must break 176.26.

EUR/USD is held solidly below by 1.0982 and 1.0971. EUR/USD requires a break at 1.1131 to target 1.1194 then short.

GBP/USD like EUR/USD is held below by 1.2698 and 1.2674. Higher for GBP/USD must break 1.2876 to target 1.3000’s then short.

AUD/USD break above 0.6746 then trades a range from 0.6746 to 0.6909. Longer term targets are located at 0.6852 and 0.6881. AUD/USD for the week contains no ability to trade 0.6800’s. AUD/USD for the past 6 weeks traded 0.6800’s to 0.6500’s then 0.6500’s to 0.6800’s.

NZD/USD must break 0.6217 then 0.6231 to trade the range from 0.6231 to 0.6396.For the week, NZD/USD trades deeply oversold. Longer term, NZD/USD targets 0.6341 then the challenge at 0.6396.

EUR/USD 1.1124 Vs GBP/CHF 1.1126.

GBP/CHF is the problem currency in the EUR/USD Vs GBP/CHF relationship as EUR/USD correlates to GBP/CHF at – 0.53% and -0.29 to GBP/USD Vs GBP/CHF. USD/CHF is the driver currency at USD/CHF Vs GBP/CHF at +0.48%.
GBP/CHF levels are to low at 1.1126 and GBP/CHF should trade 1.1300’s on a break of 1.1258.

EUR/AUD trades massive overbought from lower averages at 1.5800’s and 1.5700’s. The required break is found at 1.6279. This line will eventually break to target 1.8210 and 1.6070. EUR/AUD overbought matches to low and oversold AUD/USD and AUD/EUR.

GBP/AUD must cross below 1.8823 to target easily 1.8702 and 1.8633. Targets at 1.8702 and 1.8633 is just the start to overall targets at 1.8500’s and 1.8400’s.

The overall theme to JPY cross pairs and wide rangers EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD is 500 pip ranges and no progress towards completion to long term targets. Ranges are trading and wandering without purpose at the impulse of market inputs.

GBP/NZD must trade to 2.0685 and lower by the break at 2.0766. The overall target is the break at 2.0391 to trade 2.0201 and this target is just the beginning.

EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD begin the week at Richter Scale overbought and easy money shorts for the week.

GBP/CAD no rush exists to trade GBP/CAD as the big move was traded last week from 1.7300’s to 1.7100 then the 1.7100 break to current 1.6900’s. GBP/CAD trades 1.6861 to 1.6961 and 1.7100.

EUR/CAD also no rush to trade EUR/CAD. Current supports are many and solid at 1.4500’s and 1.4400’s. Short strategies is the way this week preferably in the 1.4800 vicinity.

Best and easiest trades for the week as follows: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD. All shorts.

For USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, shorts prevail for at least 500 and 600 pips lower.

Brian TwomeyContact: [email protected]

Fed: Dot Plots, 10 to 3 month Spread

To date, we were subjected to Fed Dot Plots or 5 year Median averages. A Median average is located below a simple average. Whenever a Dot Plot is seen, the actual Fed Funds rate and projections for raise or lower is higher due to ability to view simple averages. Markets no longer work on Median Averages.

The ECB in 2016 for example eliminated Median averages for Fix Prices and changed to simple averages. All central banks today factor simple averages and all markets work in simple averages.

If a Median average is wrong or off then percentages to raise, lower and on hold are also wrong. As I showed in the recent RBA and Fed examples, Percentages are fixed and never change no matter the level of the interest rate.

Percentages today are based on the levels of certain interest rate market instruments and assessed just prior to a central bank meeting. Percentages are wrong because it is not known if the market instrument levels are overbought, oversold or just right. The percentages then represent one moment in time. Percentages are derived from the far away abstracts of actual market prices.

The intent of the 2012 Dot Plot invention is to assess member views to raise, lower or remain on hold. As member views are known then Medians are plotted from the dot plot and forecasts derived. Despite member views, what does the actual Fed want to Fed Funds changes is never considered. Each member view factored as 1 vote and a vote that maybe overridden by the full committee.

How good are Dot plots answers by the academics at the Fed in a 2019 paper titled Plotting interest rates: The FOMC’s projections and the economy.

For 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, projections in the short run were off by 1 percentage point off by 2 points in the medium term and 1 percentage point for the longer run.

I see Dot Plot projections for July at 5.6 for Fed Funds or one and done as they say. Where is 5.6 as banks forecast Dot Plots but don’t offer the context to price location.

Written December 2022 by 31 years of monthly data or 372 data points. The overall Fed Funds range is located from 1.69 to 6.95 and 6.98. The 70% Confidence interval is located at 5.65 and 7.85 at the 90% mark.

The 5.6 level was already known 7 months ago. Are we one and done.

Here’s Fed not correct projection reports for 2023. The Fed from projection reports factors Fed Funds at 5.1 for 2023 or a range from 5.13 to 5.37. Funds Funds current 5.08.

Fed Funds from current 4.33 to 5.1 to 5.37 informs at least 70 points or approximately 50 points to raises remain available.

Since December, the Fed raised twice at 50 points.

The actual data always shows the correct forecasts, price locations, projection and target prices. Despite what the Fed does next, Fed Funds will soon trade at 4.00’s in quick time.

DXY and USD is just getting started on the overall downtrend.

How do we know the Fed reached its peak to raises is not only found in the 31 year monthly average data but again lifted from our new friend Arturo Estrella as the yield curve master at the Fed.

The risk to the Fed based on the 10 -3 month inversion is deep recession as GDP shrinks when the Fed raises.

After the inversion showed signs of receding early in the month, the spread is settling back down to a lower level, with the July average so far at -1.50%.

Below is the Full Dot Plot for 2022 – 2023.

On the Y-axis is the fed funds rate, and on the X-axis is the year for which officials gave their forecast.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY Price Speeds Slows

At the height of intervention, USD/JPY was trading 2.35 pips to DXY and EUR/USD. Recall this concept, For every 0.001 change in BOJ interest rates, USD/JPY moves 14 and 15 pips. This explains USD/JPY movements as interest rates are the only driving force to currency and all market prices yet 14 and 15 pips is extraordinarily wide to ranges.

Since BOJ threatened intervention, USD/JPY and JPY cross pair prices slowed considerably. For June and July, BOJ interest rates are in the exact same place without changes. Price movements changed.

From 2.35, USD/JPY Vs DXY 2.02 pips.

USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD 1.78 pips

USD/JPY Vs EUR/JPY 1.20 pips


For comparison

EUR/USD Vs DXY 1.13 pips


Brian Twomey

AUD/USD 5 Day Trade

AUD/USD Number 5. True to form and the form hasn’t changed in many years. I went back to the 1970’s for context. AUD/USD won’t change in years to come for big number 5 in the daily price path.

Most Important 0.6750 and 0.6776 Vs 0.6785, 0.6789, 0.6793, 0.6798, 0.6806, 0.6810, 0.6815

Bottom 0.6747 achieves by 0.6755 and 0.6764

Upper Target 0.6815

Continuation Fail 0.6798

Note upper target and continuation Fail. The number 17 as next vital number to AUD/USD daily price path.

Day trades and all this information today has been written in mathematical stone upon the currency free float in 1972. The trade tool is 10 fingers or a $5 calculator.

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: BOJ Review, 14 Currencies

The BOJ comprehensively reformed the financial system in 2016 /2017 by YCC bands, JGB 10 to 3 month, trade weight index, Corporate goods index, PPI and Imports/ exports, Inflation at 2%. Slight yet positive changes occurred to BOJ interest rates.

The current review announced by Ueda is a 25 year comprehensive analysis to factors at work, successes and failures within Japan. The predominant theme of the review is the effect on prices at every step for the past 25 years to financial markets, monetary policy and the overall financial system.

The wider view to prices incorporates questions to globalization, Japan’s aging population, wage and price analysis, effect on corporations and households.

The first workshop begins December to address monetary policy, financial markets and the financial system.

The BOJ established a website in order to follow the overall review at every step along the way.

If YCC bands eliminates then the 10Y to 3 month rates remain and no changes exist to the system. The question of loose or ultra loose policy described by market people exists a question to a valid assessment. The BOJ informs clearly to dates and money spent for purchase and sales of JGB into 2023 and 2024.

The YCC bands are irrelevant to Monetary or any BOJ policy and not worth a discussion. YCC bands maybe viewed as a Forward Guidance for the yield curve at 0.5 to 1.50 where JGB purchases and sales are found and here is found the possible relevance. But anybody can easily view the 3 month to 10 year and factor 0.5 and 1.50.

The two major questions personally. Will the BOJ add daily interest rates or will the current system remain This question determines if USD/JPY remains the same financial instrument or will USD/JPY change its current character to ranges and its relationship to DXY as long ago established by the BOJ.

The BOJ interest rate system is a very special yet different and unique system to the 20 or so central bank interest rates I currently know and understand. To add an interest rate is the same as the ECB for example to slash maturities from 7 to current 5. Eliminate maturities slows the price speed and slashes ranges. In the BOJ example, add an interest rate slows USD/JPY price speeds and compresses ranges.


DXY traded 94 pips this week inside the range from 99.00’s to 102.00’s. DXY next week trades a fairly normal 200 pip range from 99.00’s to many points at 101.00’s. DXY’s next vital low is located at 98.89 and deeply oversold.

EUR/USD continues to trade overbought from 1.0900’s and inside the same range from 1.1129 to 1.1354. Lows achieved 1.1174 this week while 1.1354 becomes massive overbought. EUR/USD challenges 1.1129 on breaks at 1.1186, 1.1157 and 1.1142 then 1.1080 and 1.1024. EUR/USD ranges expand when DXY ranges increase.

Overall Currency markets are slow and range bound due to compressed ranges to DXY and EUR/USD. If DXY and EUR/USD trade condensed ranges then all markets are afflicted by trading small ranges.

USD/JPY broke above 139.31 to trade upper 139.00’s as written Sunday. USD/JPY requires a break at 138.67 to target 137.99, 137.58 and 136.48. USD/JPY current target is 137.99 then eventual 131.00’s. Caution to 141.00 target as the BOJ Export line is located at 141.30. Short only strategy is the only viable option.

EUR/AUD trades overbought next week at 1.6500’s and Richter Scale overbought at 1.6600’s. The eventual targets are found at 1.6204, 1.6067 and 1.5974. Break at 1.6262 is mandatory for a lower EUR/AUD.

Oversold GBP/AUD confronts a vital line at 1.8829. Targets as reported in previous weeks remain at 1.8703, 1.8633 and 1.8541. If GBP/AUD holds at 1.8829 then 1.9100 may trade easily.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD operate as short only strategies for best profits.

GBP/USD Completed target at low 1.2900’s and traded to 1.2867. GBP/USD line up operates as follows: 1.2669, 1.2699, 1.2876 and 1.3256. Current range 1.2876 – 1.3256. GBP/USD at 1.2600’s is solid and strong while 1.2876 decides GBP/USD longs and shorts for next week. Overbought and short begins at GBP/USD 1.3000’s.

AUD/USD trades 0.6745 to 0.6908. AUD/USD ranges are severely compressed and will remain condensed for next week. Best AUD/USD target is 0.6851. A higher AUD/USD assists to drops in EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

NZD/USD trades a 162 pips range from vital 0.6236 to 0.6398. Overbought begins next week at middle 0.6300’s.

Low and oversold NZD/USD holds downside progress to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD. NZD/USD strategy is long and shorts for GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.

GBP/NZD traded this week 2.0800’s to 2.0500’s. Break below 2.0367 targets 2.0188 then 1.9900’s. Next week shorts at 2.0800’s again to target 2.0559 then 2.0463.

Overbought EUR/NZD must break below 1.7591 to target long term destinations at 1.7482, 1.7350 and 1.7301.

GBP/CAD from last week: Must trade minimum 1.7100’s. GBP/CAD traded lows at 1.6949 from 1.7300’s and now sits on solid supports at 1.6961 and 1.6906.

GBP/CAD ranges from 1.6906, 1.6961 to 1.7101, 1.7267 and 1.7499.

EUR/CAD traded 164 pips this week Vs GBP/CAD at 383.

EUR/CAD many and solid supports sit at 1.4400’s, 1.4500’s and 1.4600’s. We’re short next week at upper 1.4700’s to lower 1.4800’s.

GBP/JPY shorts next week at upper 181.00 to lower 182.00’s to target low 179.00’s and 178.00’s.

Overbought EUR/JPY shorts next week at 157.00’s targets 154.00’s then 153.00’s.

Brian Twomey

BOJ Review

The BOJ comprehensively reformed the financial system in 2016 /2017 by YCC bands, JGB 10 to 3 month, trade weight index, Corporate goods index, PPI and Imports/ exports, Inflation at 2%. Slight yet positive Changes occurred to BOJ interest rates.

The current review announced by Ueda is a 25 year comprehensive analysis to factors at work, successes and failures within Japan. The predominant theme of the review is the effect on prices at every step for the past 25 years to financial markets, monetary policy and the overall financial system.

The wider view to prices incorporates questions to globalization, Japan’s aging population, wage and price analysis, effect on corporations and households.
The first workshop begins December to address monetary policy, financial markets and the financial system.

The BOJ established a website in order to follow the overall review at every step along the way.

If YCC bands eliminates then the 10Y to 3 month rates remain and no changes exist to the system. The question of loose or ultra loose policy described by market people exists a question to a valid assessment. The BOJ informs clearly to dates and money spent for purchase and sales of JGB into 2023 and 2024.

The YCC bands are irrelevant to Monetary or any BOJ policy and not worth a discussion. YCC bands maybe viewed as a Forward Guidance for the yield curve at 0.5 to 1.50 where JGB purchases and sales are found and here is found the possible relevance. But anybody can easily view the 3 month to 10 year and factor 0.5 and 1.50.

The two major questions personally. Will the BOJ add daily interest rates or will the current system remain This question determines if USD/JPY remains the same financial instrument or will USD/JPY change its current character to ranges and its relationship to DXY as long ago established by the BOJ.

The BOJ interest rate system is a very special yet different and unique system to the 20 or so central bank interest rates I currently know and understand. To add an interest rate is the same as the ECB for example to slash maturities from 7 to current 5. Slash maturities slows the price speed and slashes ranges.

Brian Twomey

YCC, Yield Curves, 10Y – 3 Month

The BOJ’s YCC bands are located from the JGB 10 year yield to 3 month while BOJ interest rates trade between the bands. Most vital is the Yield curve operates sufficiently and not inverted by the 3 month trading above the 10 year. The exchange rate position and trading ability to movements is also perfect by trading interest rates between the 10 year and 3 month.

The 10 year and 3 month contains significance as the 10 year minus 3 month provides information for the best location in the words of the BOE, the domestic interest rate. Further to the 10 year and 3 month is the accuracy to predict recessions in X quarters ahead. The BOJ chose the perfect location for the YCC bands.

Meet Arturo Estrella from the Fed. Mr. Estrella has been writing and researching the yield curve for 30 years and I read many of his papers.

In Estrella’s latest paper, Recession forecasts are derived from 10 – 3 month, 10 year to 2 and the Fed’s guide at 18 month to 3 month by using forward rates. Most accurate is the 10 – 3 month from data dating to the 1970’s. The 10 to 2 year is afflicted due to lags. The darling of market people at the 10 – 2 finds misfortune.

Estrella. The bottom line is that the forecast from 10y-3m is the best we have at this point. Using data for 2022 Q1, the probabilities of recession implied by this spread are 0.6% over 4 quarters, 1.5% over 6 quarters and 6.3% over 8 quarters. The imperative is to use longer time horizons for more accurate forecasts.

Does Estrella’s forecast also imply no recession by 99.4%, 98.5% and 93.7% and how reliable is yield curve forecasts today under no market movements to yields.

The question to Recession must imply all economies and all nations since all yields and all interest rates per nation trade in the same locations on the yield curve.

Yields 10 – 3, Inversions and Interest Rate Positions

The overall question is how are central banks in relation to the BOJ.

DXY and Fed. The 10 -3 is inverted and interest rates trade around the 3 month rate..
EUR/USD and ECB. The 10 – 3 is inverted and interest rates trade around the 3 month rate.

USD/CAD and BOC. The 10 – 3 is inverted and interest rates trade around the 3 month rate.
AUD/USD and RBA. The 10 – 3 is inverted and interest rates trade around the 3 month rate.

NZD/USD and RBNZ. The 10 to 3 is inverted and interest rates trade around the 3 month rate.
USD/CHF and SNB. The 10 – 3 month is inverted and interest rates trade around the 3 month rate.

USD/PLN and. The 10 – 3 month is inverted and.
USD/RON. The 10 – 3 month is not inverted.

USD/CZK. The 10 – 3 month is inverted.

The commonality to markets is trade around the 3 month interest rate and all economies contain inverted 10 – 3 spreads. The BOJ is the lone survivor.

Brian Twomey


USD/CHF last week dropped 353 pips and the 2nd biggest week since the week of November 7 at 588 pips. USD/CHF in November dropped from 0.9900’s and traded to lows last week at 0.8565 or 1419 total pips.

Since November and 36 weeks, USD/CHF trades an average weekly range of 183.77 pips. To exclude the 2 week outliers at 353 and 588 then the average weekly range for 34 weeks factors as 166.91.

DXY for November 7 dropped from 111.27 to lows last week at 99.58 or 1169 pips. DXY traded its best day in November at 499 pips and Friday’s 2nd best day at 298 pips.

Since November and 36 weeks, DXY traded a weekly average of 171.94 pips. To exclude both outliers and 34 week then DXY traded an average of 158.61 pips.

USD/CHF 2 big lines exist at 0.8959 and 0.9235. Both lines as well as all average lines above 0.9235 to 0.9500’s are all at Richter Scale oversold.

Weekly Targets: 0.8681, 0.8751, 0.8820, 0.8890 and 0.8924. USD/CHF should trade 0.8820 easily.

USD/CHF is a forecast currency for DXY by use of a calculator. DXY 99.96 + USD/CHF 0.8612 = 100.82. DXY 99.96 minus 0.8612 = 99.09.

DXY weekly Range for longs, shorts and vital 100.82 = 99.09 and 100.82. Using market prices is always close but never perfectly exact.


DXY 99.96 +1.3212 USD/CAD = DXY 101.28. DXY 99.96 minus USD/CAD 1.3212 = 98.63.

Overall 100.82 and 101.28 Vs 99.09 and 98.63

USD/CAD opens Sunday at 1.3206 to 1.3217. DXY 0.9996 divide 1.3212 = 1.3217.

USD/CAD 1.3212 Divide DXY 0.9996 divide USD/CAD = 1.3206

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: 16 Currency Levels and Targets

Oversold DXY begins the week ranging 200 pips from 99.00’s to 102.00. Limited downside exists for DXY this week as the week trades long USD. Overall, 102.00’s are solid lines and many exist . As DXY trades the 99.00’s to 102.00’s ranges this week, the 102.00 lines will continuously drop into future weeks. Next on the agenda is 98.72 and 98.11 then on the way to a giant and vital break 96.00’s.

Overbought EUR/USD remains trading within 1.1123 to 1.1351. Lower requires a break at 1.1180 and 1.1151 to target the break at 1.1123. We’re looking for the break at 1.1123 to then target 1.1093, 1.1076 and 1.1068. Overall, EUR/USD trades overbought to oversold DXY and USD and the downside for the week is a correction to relieve overbought. Good shot for next week to long again for the break above 1.1123.

EUR/CHF trades massive oversold and targets 0.9740 and 0.9754 and just prior to the big break at 0.9768. EUR/CHF correlates to EUR/USD at minus 93%. As EUR/USD traveled higher last week, EUR/CHF dropped. This week will see the reverse as EUR/USD lower to EUR/CHF higher.

EUR/USD Levels: 1.0906, 1.0954, 1.1123, 1.1351, 1.1597. EUR/USD levels should hold for about the next 3 months and regardless to market events, central bank interest rate changes and economic releases.


CAD/JPY sits deeply oversold just above vital break for lower at 104.45 and contains easily ability to break lower to target low 103.00’s. A CAD/JPY break lower would become the first JPY cross pair to break significant levels.

Oversold USD/CAD complies to oversold DXY. Higher for USD/CAD represents a correction unless USD/CAD trades above 1.3337. The CAD/JPY break at 104.45 ensures long USD/CAD for the week.


GBP/CAD trades a 500 pip range from 1.7098 to 1.7500. Current GBP/CAD trades not only at the top range but also trades deeply overbought from lower averages.

GBP/CAD must trade to minimum lower 1.7100’s just to relieve overbought. For the week, we’re short to 1.7100’s yet not trying for a big grand slam.

Doesn’t matter where GBP/CAD ends the week, ranges from 1.7098 to 1.7500 and overbought remains.

EUR/CAD supports are located at 1.4400’s and 1.4500’s and many exist. EUR/CAD trades massive overbought. Low 1.4700’s are good targets.

EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD together should profit easily 100 and 150 pips each.
Overbought AUD/USD trades 0.6714, 0.6904 and 0.7056. AUD/USD trades massive overbought from 0.6700’s. Big break 0.6904 held last week.

NZD/USD trades massive overbought from 0.6200’s. NZD/USD ranges from 0.6211, 0.6395, 0.6559.

Once overbought is complete this week for AUD/USD and NZD/USD, longs for next week to break NZD 0.6395 and AUD/USD 0.6904.

USD/JPY begins the week in a horrible position and sits last on the overall currency trade list. Big break for higher is located at 139.31. Higher DXY then 139.31 has every ability to break and USD/JPY travels to upper 139.00’s. The break above 139.31 temporarily delays the long term downtrend and lower targets.

Next USD/JPY target lower is located at 136.68.

JPY cross pairs all trade oversold for the week and not close to significant breaks. GBP/JPY ranges this week from 182.07 to 179.24 and big break for lower at 176.13 and EUR/JPY at 151.94.

USD/JPY and JPY cross pair strategy remains short only until target completion. A DXY break below 98.00’s to target next 96.00’s would greatly assist a much lower USD/JPY and JPY cross pair break at vital levels.

GBP/NZD waits on a break at 2.0349 to target 2.0100’s while EUR/NZD must break 1.7559. Short only strategies for both is the only way forward. NZD/USD will correct lower this week and long for next week. GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD next week could easily break 2.0349 and 1.7559.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD continues with short only strategy adopted since last December and January. EUR/AUD targets lower 1.6300’s and lower 1.9000’s for GBP/AUD.

GBP/USD trades overbought inside 1.2872 to 1.3254 and targets 1.2900’s for the week.

Overall, DXY and USD runs the show this week in a 200 pip range. Only minor levels exist for DXY between 99.00’s to 102.00’s.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD April – July 2023

April = 1.0734, 1.0940, 1.1132, 1.1374, 1.1623

July 14 = 1.0891, 1.0951, 1.1121, 1.1350, 1.1596

April to July range = 1.0642 – 1.1244 or 602 pips.

What changed? Nothing. Bottom averages changed 157 pips while remainder averages failed to move.

EUR/USD Total averages April = 889 Vs July 705 or 184 pip difference.

Brian Twomey


DXY at 99.00’s finally at the 50 year monthly average. This should inform EUR/USD at its 50 year monthly average at 1.1200’s and explains the jump in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.


1.1333 Vs 98.72

1.1393 Vs 98.11

1.1515 Vs 96.90

1.1820 Vs 93.86

1.2124 Vs 90.81

1.2428 Vs 87.77.

Notice the distance from 1.1393 to 1.1515. If 1.1500’s trade, this will take time as 1 or 2 months. I wouldn’t target 1.1500’s until the resolution of 1.1300’s. A possible break at 1.1300 ranges from 1.1300’s to 1.1500’s. Smarter is a gazillion range trades exist for much profit.

We’re taking market prices and market prices are never correct. The tops are at 1.1300’s for the next month or so.

Accurate = 1.0890, 1.0951, 1.1121, 1.1350, 1.1596. EUR/USD trades mid range and 1.1121 is the big line. But 1.0800’s are Richter scale overbought.

GBP/USD current 1.3117 Vs USD/CAD 1.3114. GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD is the same relationship as EUR/USD Vs DXY. The only difference is GBP Vs CAD numbers are observable and easily analyzed while EUR/USD V DXY contain 2 separate numbers and takes a minute to analyze.

Known to current GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD is this relationship cannot hold. We must and will see a separation. USD/CAD is oversold to overbought GBP/USD.

Fresh numbers: GBP/USD 1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2869, 1.3253, 1.3671. Mid range and 1.2869 as big number.

GBP/USD big break number 1.3195 and the range is 1.2869 to 1.3253. What does a 384 pip range due for us. Nothing except wasted words.

We know big topline break at 1.3195. We know 1.2600’s are solid lines and won’t break anytime soon , if al all.

Exact numbers: 1.3195, 1.3154, 1.3113, 1.3072, 1.3032, 1.2950, 1.2909. At 1.2909 competes against 1.2902. Informs 1.2909 and 1.2902 is also solid lines and won’t break anytime soon. Now we have all range numbers to last probably into next Friday or beyond.

Middle number and most vital 1.3072. Where does 1.3072 fit today.

GBP Day Trade


Long Short Line 1.3108 

Most Important 1.3058 and 1.3099 Vs 1.3116, 1.3124, 1.3132, 1.3141, 1.3157, 1.3165, 1.3174

Bottom 1.3042 achieves by 1.3058 and 1.3075

Upper Target 1.3174

Continuation Fail 1.3141

GBP/USD Viewed differently

Above 1.3116, 1.3124, 1.3132, 1.3141, 1.3157, 1.3165, 1.3174

Long Short Line 1.3108

Bottom: Bottom 1.3042, 1.3058, 1.3075, 1.3099

Top number today 1.3141 and 1.3174. Top number to range 1.3195.

AUD/USD Big break line 0.6902. Held all week at 0.6894. NZD/USD 0.6393. Violated today to 0.6410. NZD/USD 0.6393 is 2 days old so exact maybe at 0.6410.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD failure to follow by vital breaks to EUR/USD and GBP/USD maybe informs how overbought is EUR/USD and GBP/USD as both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are up against vital topside levels.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey and FXStreet

While I’m honored Fxstreet swamped my site lately with many views and assuming Spain views are fxstreet people, but of course this deserves skepticism as Fxstreet finally gives 2 shoots after 12 years of posts, trades, education, analysis and big profits.

When people of FXstreet caliber hit my site, they are looking for strategies and most popular is to steal my trades and commentary as their own. Many of these bigger named currency analyst people did this many times and over many years. The long list of currency analyst incompetence over years is legendary and Fxstreet is no different.

Contributors to Fxstreet were afforded the extra advantage for articles sent to social media sites such as twitter as most popular. This stopped 2 weeks ago. Articles are now contained within the Fxstreet site. If the article is acceptable, contributors receive front page status and if not accepted then articles hit the Dungeon.

Contributors were dumped in favor of paid Fxstreet writers and banks. Those articles represent the only analysis and commentary sent to twitter and other social media sites.

General views from Fxstreet were in the vicinity of 1000 – 1500 per article and I have the data to back up claims here. Then came investing dot com. They were good for another 1000 to 1500 views per article. Over the years, views ranged from 2500 to 5000 weekly and more for big events.

Problem here is also investing dot com. Mention the word correlation in an article or write something remotely close to sophistication then the article receives rejection. In the past 2 months or so, I had about 4 and 5 rejections.

The good about Fxstreet is they allow contributors to write freely. I always posted my research over the years for example because I had to go behind the currency analyst claims or to learn a particular concept.

Trust these words. The analysts and market writers are far more wrong than right. They truly don’t know what they say or do. I offered to assist many. I’ll be right over. They never came so hardened in the ways of wrong.

So I’m out of gas as Fxstreet views died a horrible death and I never had an interest in investing dot com, especially today as they now edit articles. Trust this also. They aren’t very good at the English >

Then came the promises over years from Peter and Tommy. I’m going to the trading desk and everywhere else. The Thailand Flyers, the Economist position. Here’s joe blow the $100 million a year Asia money Manager.

We profited what? 15,000, 20,000 pips in the past 6 months. Is this worth anything. Obviously not nor are subscribers coming.

So how to proceed is the overall question. Obviously we drop Fxstreet and no interest in investing dot com. Nobody else worth a dam exist anymore, not that fxstreet was so terrific but I began with them 12 years ago.

If views remain, I will maintain posts especially as I have much more on the BOJ, strategies and a long list of topics and trades. If views die then I’m through dealing.

How many of the 1000’s are loyal or look for us for trade assistance. Very few to be honest. Most wander the world looking for profits from the flavor of the day. The traders are as screwed up as the incompetent analysts and trade services.

Current subscribers reman as I take care of subscribers to the best I can for continuous profits.

And so we see what happens. As they say in Barceloonie Lo que sera sera

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: 10 Currency Levels and Targets

EUR/USD target at 1.1044 complete from entry at Anywhere. For May and June, EUR/USD traded at 1.0600’s. The pen, paper and calculator will always remain the most powerful, accurate and profitable trading tool. No computer nor the Algo BS can beat a calculator.

EUR/USD trades 1.0948 to 1.1120 and 1.1120 to 1.1349. For next week, EUR/USD hurdles are located at 1.1176 and 1.1180. EUR/USD must clear 1.1180 to target next 1.1240. And every 30 pips to 1.1360 as most powerful average.

Current EUR/USD trades Richter Scale overbought from 1.0800’s. Break at 1.1120 targets 1.1062, 1.1005 and 1.0976. A further rise for EUR/USD is stopped by 1.0800.
DXY broke lower to 100.00’s from its 5 week range at 102.00’s to 103.00;s. DXY’s new range trades from 100.00’s to 102.00’s.

GBP/USD next line above is located at 1.3031 and 1.3072 to target next 1.3195. GBP/USD trades in an overall range from 1.2867 to 1.3252. Current GBP/USD at 1.3000’s trades massive overbought from 1.2500’s and 1.2600’s. Shorts target 1.2949, 1.2908 and 1.2898. GBP/USD move lower is a correction due to overbought.

USD/JPY last week: Break at 140.00’s targets 138.08. USD/JPY dead stopped at 138.06. USD/JPY larger range is located from 138.09 to 131.61. Next target is found at 136.76. Only a break above 139.69 delays USD/JPY’s impending downfall.


True to form, the BOJ released Producer Prices yesterday. Current June Producer Prices sit at -0.2 from May at -0.7. The Export side to PPI is just fine and Exports beat Imports.

Most vital to BOJ is no intervention and no imperative for Ueda to change one iota of policy. The timing for Ueda’s arrival was godsend perfect as the BOJ completely overhauled policies and economic releases. Nothing exists for UEDA to do except sit back and watch other central banks screw up their economies.

Most important is the big mouths at the BOJ disappeared and USD/JPY will achieve another 1000 pips by screw ups at the FED but not from the BOJ side.

EUR/AUD targets 1.6189 and 1.6056 while GBP/AUD targets 1.8676 and 1.8626 to start.
GBP/CAD trades 1.6692 to 1.7253. At current 1.7100’s and deeply overbought, lower requires a break at 1.7096 to ensure target at 1.6998. Watch for shorts at 1.7153 as the next vital line above current price.

AUD/USD trades 0.6701 to 0.6902 and overbought from 0.6700’s yet oversold from 0.6900’s.

NZD/USD trades 0.6199 to 0.6193. Above 0.6393 targets 0.6421.

Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD longer term trade deeply oversold. A fairly normal price for AUD/USD is break 0.6902 and 0.7055. Failure to break leaves AUD/USD in continuous oversold circumstances.

NZD/USD above 0.6393 trades 0.6393 to 0.6558. Above 0.6558 trades fairly normal and 0.6558 matches to AUD/USD at 0.7055. Failure to break 0.6393 and 0.6558 then NZD/USD trades in permanent oversold conditions.

GBP/NZD traded lows at 2.0481 from 2.0900’s. Next targets 2.0147, 1.9948 and 1.9916. Add GBP/NZD to the 15,000 and 20,000 pips banked since December / January. And on to 50,000.

USD/CAD trades deeply oversold and must break 1.3353 to target 1.3400’s.

Brian Twomey


EUR/USD target as reported for many weeks at 1.1044 traded to 1.1026. EUR/USD above 1.0943 allowed a higher EUR/USD and near target completion. EUR/USD currently trades 1.0943 to 1.1118. Next levels 1.1000, 1.1058 and 1.1116. Note EUR/USD 1.1116 and 1.1118. EUR/USD 1.1100’s represent tough to break levels.

Overall EUR/USD vital levels: 1.0853, 1.0943, 1.1118, 1.1348 and 1.1595. Only minor changes to levels will be seen over next months.

GBP/USD Vital levels for next months: 1.2568, 1.2640, 1.2744, 1.2863, 1.2892, 1.3195 and 1.3250

USD/JPY is not only oversold but big break at 140.09 is close. Break of 140.09 targets next 139.25, 138.43 and 136.77.

Long term targets for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs remain and targets held since December / January.

The BOJ Producer Price Index reported June 12 and is expected to report again tomorrow on July 12. The intervention definitive answer is found in tomorrow’s release. The revelation as suspected is no intervention. The Japanese were successful by jawboning USD/JPY a few extra pips lower.

Years ago during the days of regular BOJ interventions, jawboning was always number 1 priority then came intervention.

And no intervention because Trade will report exports in Japan’s favor. We will also see no words from the Japanese to USD/JPY levels.

From the Tankan Survey, the 2 most vital export currencies and most important markets for Japan are USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Forget the Regional stuff reported as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY and Europe far outpace trade than Japan Trade with China or regional nations.

JPY Correlations

USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD at last report ran Correlations at +90%. Correlation at such high levels can’t hold and explains USD/JPY’s move rather than the big mouth Japanese. Today’s Correlations run USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD at +77% and 20 point difference. More to go which means USD/JPY must continue to separate from EUR/USD.

USD/JPY vs EUR/JPY +98% and EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY at +85%. Correlations reveal the JPY cross pair move is just getting started and has more moves to go.
Same story to GBP/JPY as USD/JPY Vs GBP/JPY Correlate at +99% and GBP/USD correlates to GBP/JPY at +98. The GBP/JPY move has barely began its downward trajectory. Correlations alone informs to not only current price situations but what’s ahead.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: BOJ, JPY and 15 Currency Levels and Targets

Week 5 begins with DXY in the usual 101.00 to 103.00 ranges and no end or breakout on the horizon as 103.00’s become overbought and oversold at 101.00’s. On the opposite side is EUR/USD to begin week 5 in a 300 pip range from 1.0700’s to 1.1000 then began the compression of averages to trade 100 pips in each of the past 2 weeks.

GBP/USD’s 200 pip ranges from 1.2600’s to 1.2800 traded 2 times EUR/USD ranges and the same applies to AUD/USD from 0.6600’s to 0.6800’s and NZD/USD from 0.6000’s to 0.6200’s.

Long Term Targets: USD/JPY and JPY Cross Pairs

USD/JPY targets 138.08, 131.56, 127.79 and 124.90
GBP/JPY targets 171.90, 165.57 and 162.82

EUR/JPY targets 148.73, 143.09, 140.14 and 138.51
CAD/JPY targets 103.61, 99.34 and 97.12AUD/JPY targets 93.09, 90.10 and 89.08.

In the July 3rd release of the Tankan Survey on pages 1, 2 and 9, Japan’s 9700 businesses and enterprises forecast FY 2023 for USD/JPY at 132.43 and 131.72. EUR/JPY at 140.11.

The overall conclusion to BOJ and Monetary Policy is the derivation to a lower JPY is not seen as valid. The two major threats to the BOJ are YCC and Quantitative easing yet both indicators held since 2016 /2017 introduction. BOJ scheduled bond purchases for FY 2023 are in line to YCC and QE. Possible trade violations to the YCC bands are factored for the BOJ by additional bond purchases.

The above Tankan Survey to the question of Business Conditions bottomed in 2021 /2020 from Covid but since recovered. The Survey is a compendium of questions to Investments, Sales, Profits, Income, employment, inflation. Tankan reveals the overall Business climate for Japan is functioning perfectly.

The concept of Wages is found within Japan’s Service sector as Wages and Services aligned closely since 2008 as highlighted by Adachi Seiji in the June 21st speech in Kagoshima.

The JGB 10 year yield held below the YCC 1.50 upper line since 2016 and violated twice by 5 points. The overall JGB yield curve also operated perfectly since 2016 / 2017.
The BOJ since 2016 and 2017 isolated, viewed and revamped every aspect to Japan’s Economy and Economic releases. As a result to changes, the BOJ contains full control, perspectives and views to Japan’s Economy. No mysteries exist as every number is figured, factored and charted from short to long term time horizons.

Add the 2016 / 2017 revisions to Japan’s Output Gap. Japan’s quarterly Output Gap is negative -0.34, minus -0.46 for Capital Input, and positive 0.12 for Labor inputs.

For the 6 month view, the potential Growth Rate is +0.32, Total Factor Productivity + 0.46, Capital Stock +0.10, Hours worked minus -0.32 and Number employed + 0.8.

The general view to the Output Gap is a positive reading means higher Inflation as the Output Gap is a total measure of prices. Lower Inflation to a negative Output Gap.

Only radical changes to the BOJ would force USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs lower yet the BOJ is operating to perfection and no changes are required. USD/JPY lower will derive from the ECB and FED.

The Week

GBP/NZD below 2.0679 targets 2.0505 and 2.0331 then to 2.0157.

EUR/USD to trade higher must break 1.0943 to target 1.001 and 1.1058. Lower at 1.0876 targets the vital break at 1.0851. EUR/USD begins the week overbought and 1.0851 is expected to hold.

GBP currencies across the board are overbought as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF. Best trades are located within GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD.

USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs begin the week oversold and continuation to the 6 month strategy as shorts only. JPY cross pairs include a vast majority as EM currencies arranged as Other Currency / JPY.

GBP/USD vital levels are located at 1.2553, 1.2637 and 1.2863. GBP/USD for the week is expected to trade from 1.2863 to 1.2637.

GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD begins the week overbought. GBP/CAD is the best short as GBP/CAD trades wider ranges than EUR/CAD.

EUR/AUD targets 1.6173 and 1.6044 and begins the week overbought while overbought GBP/AUD targets easily 1.9097.

AUD/USD targets an eventual break above 0.6697 to then target 0.6730 and 0.6844 to trade within a larger range from 0.6697 to 0.6904.

NZD/USD trades from 0.6185 to 0.6393. The RBNZ strategy is short below 0.6185 then long.

For the week overall, currencies and market prices range to hold the 5 week pattern.

Brian Twomey

Japan Output Gap: Wages, Labor and Productivity

What does the concept of Wages mean as we hear about this topic everyday and all day but as usual nobody every considered how its measured, how its employed and the inputs to consider. And when do we know when Wages and economic inputs are correct.

I use the BOJ Output Gap as an example because I was reading Japanese and Chinese Newspapers this morning to understand what Big Sis Yellen was doing in Asia and came across Japan’s Output Gap.

And By the way, FX was not the purpose of the trip nor BOJ Intervention. China wants sophisticated computer chips and only the United States has those Chips and those Chips are considered Dual Use Technology and under Export Controls.

Japan won’t offer Chips to China either and the question of the Chips seems to cause problems to the Japanese / Chinese and United States / China Relationship. China as usual are trying to bully Japan and the US to deliver the chips but neither side is budging as the use of those chips may be useful for AI computers, Military Weapons and god knows what else and to be used against the United States and Japan.

Japan’s quarterly Output Gap is negative -0.34, minus -0.46 for Capital Input, and positive 0.12 for Labor inputs.

For the 6 month view, the potential Growth Rate is +0.32, Total Factor Productivity + 0.46, Capital Stock +0.10, Hours worked minus -0.32 and Number employed + 0.8.

Excessive, Insufficient = minus – 21.62.

The general view to the Output Gap is a positive reading means higher Inflation as the Output Gap is a total measure of prices. Lower Inflation to a negative Output Gap.

The BOJ views the Tankan Survey as the overall measure to the Output Gap. The Output Gap was re adjusted in 2017 along with all BOJ indicators to YCC, JGB’s, Yield Curve, Yen Basis, Imports and Exports. Producer prices and GDP.

And here is where I must stop. Next I look closer at Wages and the Tankan as this is where all the Data is found, analyzed and factored.

Brian Twomey

BOJ, Yellen, Intervention and JPY

In regards to Intervention and comments from BOJ officials, the BOJ interpreted and became serious on July 4th and has held intervention in deep regards. Prior to July 4th, Japanese interest rate markets failed to consider a thought or deliberation to intervention. To Japanese interest rate markets, intervention wasn’t happening.

On July 4th, Finance Minister Suzuki confirmed talks with BIg Sis Yellen to speak about FX. Big Sis spooked Japanese Interest rate markets as the largest one day move was seen on July 4. To insult the Japanese further, Big Sis is responsible for the biggest 3 day move in interest rates not seen since the last intervention in 2022.

Is Big Sis Yellen really in Japan to talk about FX intervention for the BOJ. The BOJ more than any central bank on the planet is quite experienced at intervention or is Yellen in plans for a larger FX and market issue.

How about Central bank coordinated FX action, devaluation and a complete re price to FX currency prices. How about coordinated FX action to favor Bric Nations such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. Big Sis Yellen is by far the most dangerous globalist ever to hold the highest Financial offices. Any issue Big Sis completes won’t favor markets nor the nation she claims to represent.

Markets are trading in the 51st year of the 1972 free float and 3rd quadrant of 4 that began in 1994 to mark historic 50 year periods. Since 1694 and BOE creation, 3rd periods are correction phases from 2nd period market crashes. Big Sis has every right to succeed in 3rd quadrants to accomplish whatever devious plans are in progress.

The problem is level of DXY rather than USD/JPY exchange rates. USD/JPY simply followed DXY in normal trade. If any currency deserves intervention, its DXY.
The BOJ will resist Big Sis if Japan trade is affected particularly if the Yen Basis holds positive on the June 20 release date.

USD/JPY dropped from 144.69 on July 4 to 142.87 lows or 182 pips. USD/JPY sits oversold and only a break at 140.19 experiences a larger move lower.

GBP/JPY remains trading from 181.07 to 184.14. The line up as follows: 179.57, 181.07, 184.14, 187.24. GBP/JPY trades in 300 pip ranges above 181.07. GBP/JPY also trades oversold and big break for a larger move is located at 175.88.

EUR/JPY also trades oversold and big break for a larger move is found at 152.00’s. Best trades for the current environment in order: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and lastly, CAD/JPY.

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: 15 Currency Levels and Targets

The moral of the intervention story is if the Yen Basis is negative then the BOJ intervenes. If the Yen Basis is positive then no intervention. Its just that simple and the BOJ screams this information from the roof tops. Notice last reported was data for May and this is July. So sensitive is this information, the BOJ reports data for the previous months.

When June data is released, the definitive intervention question will be known and we will jump. As of this day, the BOJ won’t intervene as May data fails to support intervention. To speculate, June data won’t support intervention either as USD/JPY now trades 143.00’s from monthly highs at 144.90.

The BOJ is not watching USD/JPY as they claim. The BOJ is waiting for June data . Sensitive refers to the same principle as the release of interest rates. Central Banks never release valid interest rates for the same day trade as trades would be so so easy and profits flow freely. Interest rate data is released the previous day and months so traders must work for the profits.

The Corporate Goods Price Index as a whole reveals nothing and is not worthy to focus except the overall relationship to Commodities as a source for Imports. Yet if Exports exceed Imports then the Corporate Goods Price Index becomes truly worthless to indicate anything.

A currency price is strictly a market instrument until Imports and Exports are affected then market instrument switches to an Economic document.

Next Week

DXY trades the same dead 100 pip range next week as it performed this week. Overbought begins at middle 103.00’s and oversold at middle 102.00’s. The DXY compression assists to the continuing slowdown to all market prices. DXY requires a break and until the break is seen then markets remain dead.

The premiere currencies to trade in dead range markets are USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY because wide range movements are naturally built into the prices. USD/JPY for example trades 2.13 pips to EUR/USD and DXY while GBP/JPY trades 4.25 pips to USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trades 3.07 pips to USD/JPY.

Next trades are wide rangers: EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD. Best of 2 are EUR/AUD and GBP/NZD.

EUR/USD from the weekly: EUR/USD trades this week from 1.0845 to 1.0942 or 97 pips. Actual range 1.0933 to 1.0833.

EUR/USD sits on a massively vital support line at 1.0841. EUR/USD must break 1.0873 to trade 1.0873 to 1.0941 then 1.0999. Long term target holds at 1.1037 and long drops as overbought DXY is the least of our concerns.

GBP/USD from weekly: GBP/USD trades 1.2524 and 1.2628 Vs 1.2860. Actual 1.2738 to 1.2658. Next week: 1.2533, 1.2631 to 1.2860. GBP/USD at 1.2533 is protected by a cluster of levels at 1.2503 and 1.2522. GBP/USD higher must break 1.2860 to target 1.2887 then 1.3198. No such fantasy as 1.3200’s for next week or possibly the following week.

GBP/CHF trades overbought and trades a larger range from 1.1327 to 1.1688. Long at lower levels 1.1358 and 1.1342. GBP/USD lower to break 1.2533 is also protected by GBP/CHF.

GBP/NZD last week: 2.0696 is required to break and travel lower to 2.0500’s easily. GBP/NZD highs achieved 2.0711 and lows at 2.0446. Next week, GBP/NZD becomes overbought above 2.0692. No changes since last week and short highs to 2.0300’s next.

Did we achieve 20,000 pips since January and December? In 2019 at the last reference time check. total for June / July was almost 24,000 pips. We remain on track for 24,000 pips for 6 months and about 50,000 yearly pips. All on my blog for open inspection.

EUR/NZD From the weekly: EUR/NZD requires a break at 1.7560 then targets become 1.7436 and 1.7337. EUR/NZD broke 1.7560 and lows traded 1.7477. Weekly highs achieved 1.7792. Next week: 1.7552 decides longs and shorts.

EUR/AUD From weekly: EUR/AUD targets a break of 1.6359 to target 1.6288. Shorts are located at any price in the vicinity of 1.6400’s. EUR/AUD traded highs at 1.6432, broke 1.6359 and lows achieved 1.6242.

EUR/AUD next week shorts are again located at any price at 1.6400’s to break 1.6369 and target easily 1.6282. Lower must break 1.6194.

GBP/AUD from Weekly: Overbought GBP/AUD shorts are located anywhere in the 1.9100’s and targets 1.8900’s easily then 1.8800’s.GBP/AUD highs at 1.9130 traded lows 1.8974. Next week, short middle 1.9100’s and target 1.8900’s.

AUD/USD. Here’s a laugh. At RBA time, AUD/USD was Richter Scale oversold and traded 40 pips higher for RBA. From week, 0.6705 must break for higher targets. AUD/USD 0.6705 held all week. Higher for AUD/USD must break 0.6697 to target 0.6714 and 0.6732. Long drops all next week.

AUD/USD what does 40 points mean for Monetary Policy. USD/JPY 2000 pips means nothing to BOJ , how may 40 pips make any difference to the RBA.

NZD/USD 0.6178 do or die for longs and shorts.

EUR/CHF trades deep oversold at 0.9749 and targets 0.9781 and 0.9790. Higher must break 0.9799. EUR/CHF oversold protects EUR/USD at 1.0841.

The EUR/CHF break at 0.9799 coincides to NZD/CHF higher at 0.5585 and AUD/CHF at 0.6054.

USD/CAD trades overbought and shorts are located below 1.3355

Brian Twomey

BOJ: PPI V Imports, Exports and Intervention

What began as a cursory view to the question of BOJ intervention and possible criteria to internal factors to cause intervention has led to an astounding, fascinating and extraordinary perspective to USD/JPY, Japan and the BOJ.

For the first time in 150 years, Japan and the BOJ literally joined the modern day world by discard to past 150 years of failures to economic experiments. Today’s BOJ perfectly understands GDP, Producer Prices, Imports and Exports, Inflation. Most importantly, the BOJ truly understands USD/JPY with a more firmer view to movements in relation to Japan’s economics and in particular to trade.

The BOJ previously failed at T Bill purchase schemes in the early 1900’s, failed at the 1930’s USD/JPY peg to GBP/JPY then Gold, failed at the WW 2 Peg rate at 360.00, failed at the 1990’s to 2004 USD/JPY peg to the money supply. The list of failures is long yet the BOJ experimented with economic schemes rather than take a firm view to analyze the aspects to economics that might work.

Previous admonishments to the BOJ were either write off the BOJ as the Gang that can’t shoot straight or hold a sense of pity with the hope to one day employ economics as all past central banks in order to maintain Japan and its people.

From the Ministry of Finance, the BOJ last intervened October and August 2022. Previous to 2022, the BOJ intervened October – November 2011, 2004 and almost daily from 1991 to 2004.

The GDP Index in August 2022 at 0.2 and the Export Index at 124.8 revealed Intermediate Goods, Motor Vehicles and ITT severely low in relation to the overall 124.8 Index. GDP at the October 2022 intervention was negative -0.0, the Index at 125.6 to Motor Vehicles at 118.5 and 116.2 for August.

The commonality to intervention for 2022 was the category to Motor Vehicles as the Motor Vehicle side to Exports severely dropped to 105.2 in May 2022 and USD/JPY appreciated in August and October 2022. By May 2023 , GDP at 1.0 and the Export Index at 120.9 revealed Motor Vehicles rose to 131.9.

Intervention: Economics and Trade

The question to BOJ intervention is based on a series of economic factors rather than a single economic release. The BOJ Economic calculations are found in the GDP Vs Export Index and the Corporate Goods Price Index to overall Imports and Exports. Next is the question to the exchange rate level. All scenarios informs the basis to intervention.

GDP for example in August 2022 was 0.2 and negative -0.0 for October while Motor Vehicles was low in relation to the Exports Index. The Corporate Goods Price Index or Producer Prices for August and October 2022 was 0.4 and 1.0.
Intervention and Yen Basis

GDP and Producer Prices from the Corporate Goods Price index was irrelevant to intervention. Most profound to necessitate intervention was the deeply negative Yen Basis for the monthly Import and Export Index. USD/JPY appreciation exceeded its limits and the BOJ was forced to intervene to rescue Imports, Exports and Exporters.

Yen Basis Vs Contract Currency Basis

Further to the Yen Basis for August and intervention purpose, the BOJ maintains a monthly and yearly view of the Contract Currency Basis. As the BOJ explains, about a 2 week lag time exists from monthly releases to Yen basis Vs Imports and Exports. The Currency Basis for August was also deeply negative to reveal Exporters and Importers were on the losing end for August.

By October, the Yen basis was rectified and operated perfectly to Imports and Exports but the Contract Currency Basis for Importers and Exporters remained slightly negative. The purpose for October’s intervention was to rescue the Importers and Exporters to turn a profit.

For May 2023 and the last reporting period, The Yen basis for Exports and Imports operates positive and good but the monthly and yearly Contract Currency basis reports negative however slight negative and not the overwhelming negative numbers for August 2022. The Yen Basis to trade remained positive therefore no need to consider intervention. When the Yen Basis to the Import and Export Index turns negative then intervention is almost guaranteed.

Yen Basis Vs Overbought / Oversold USD/JPY

The most important trigger for intervention is the Yen Basis in relation to Imports and Exports. A negative Yen Basis is the ultimate intervention signal particularly from the Export Index.

Current USD/JPY has been overbought since 133.00’s to 135.00’s yet USD/JPY traded to 145.00’s. USD/JPY began January 2022 at 113.00’s and traded to 151.00 highs yet intervention was never an issue until 151.00’s triggered a negative Yen Basis to the Import and Export Index.
Level of USD/JPY is irrelevant to intervention until trade is harmed by the exchange rate.

The reference to index is the Laspeyres version due to the ease of calculations, maintenance and easy ability to factor additional inputs. By use of an index brings GDP, Exports and Imports to its lowest base form to reveal a total and accurate picture to forecast long term time horizons.

GDP Forecast Vs Real Imports and Exports

The current 1.0 GDP Index forecasts the Index price at 1.07 to 0.93. Real Exports divide Real Imports = 1.07. Real Imports divide Real Imports = 0.93. From Imports and Exports, the BOJ factors an exchange rate and termed the Yen Basis as seen from Producer Prices or commonly known as the Corporate Goods Price Index.

Corporate Goods Price Index Vs Real Imports / Exports and Yen Basis.

Blue = Producer Prices = All Commodities, Year vs Year Change. 2020 base year
Red = Services Producer Prices, 2015 Base year.

May = Producer Price Services 5.1 Vs 1.9 for All Commodities.
April = 5.9 Vs 1.8.
March = 7.4 Vs 1.8

The Corporate Goods Price Index is better known as Producer Prices and is created by indices of Producer Prices, Imports and exports. Trade Statistics are factored by dividing Exports to Imports then by the Real Import and Export index. The results are then factored again for each import and export such as Motor Vehicles, ITT and Intermediate Goods to name a few of the 400 items factored monthly and yearly.

Producer Prices in the Corporate Goods Price Index operates the same as GDP to the Export Index as Producer Prices are deflated to the Import / Export Indices, Yen Basis and Contract Currency Basis to then form an index.

The commonality to Producer Prices, Corporate Goods Price Index, Yen Basis and Contract Currency Basis is all represent prices matched by their own specialized number and reported as tiny numbers by index form in order for comparison and analysis.

Producer Prices for May reported negative 0.7, April 0.3, March 0.1, February negative 0.2 and 0.00 for January.

March began the negative Yen Basis in the Import Index as well as the Contract Currency Basis while Exports remained positive. No need to intervene.
April began serious questions to intervention from the Import Price Index to Yen and Contract Currency Basis. Exports is most vital to Japan and the BOJ.

Intervention Forecast

All relevant information necessary for forecasts are located at the BOJ site and readily available.

Yen Basis monthly divide Exchange Rate = Monthly Changes.
Yen Basis yearly divide by exchange rate = Yearly changes.


Yen Basis yearly change divide Producer Prices = Monthly change.
March = Yen Basis divide Producer Prices = April Yen Basis Monthly.


Exchange Rate divide monthly Yen Basis = Yen Basis Monthly change to Exports.
GDP = Producer Price Index divide Yen Basis = Export Price Index

GDP for the next month is forecasted at 1.08 to 0.92 from current 1.0.

BOJ Jawbones USD/JPY

The BOJ says we’re watching USD/JPY is only relevant to observance of the Yen Basis to Imports and Exports as the indices sit at a 50 /50 basis to turn negative. If the indices remain positive then the USD/JPY market price is irrelevant to the BOJ and comments will disappear.

Brian Twomey